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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Interplanetary Magnetic Field Conditions at Mercury's Orbit From MESSENGER Magnetosheath Observations Using a Feedforward Neural Network

Abstract Mercury's small magnetosphere is embedded in the dynamic and intense solar wind environment characteristic of the inner heliosphere. Both the magnitude and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly influence the solar wind‐magnetospheric interaction at Mercury, driving phenomena such as magnetic reconnection. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft provided in‐situ magnetic field measurements of the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the magnetosphere along each orbit. However, it is a challenge to directly assess the IMF's impact on Mercury's plasma environment due to the temporal separation between observations within the solar wind and the magnetosphere, especially in the absence of an upstream monitor. Here, we present a feedforward neural network (FNN) trained on a subset of magnetosheath observations to estimate the strength and orientation of the IMF upstream of the bow shock. Utilizing magnetosheath magnetic field, cylindrical spatial coordinates, and heliocentric distance measurements, the FNN predicts upstream IMF conditions with an score of 0.70 and mean averaged error of 5.3 nT, thereby greatly decreasing the temporal separation between IMF estimates and magnetospheric measurements throughout the MESSENGER mission. This approach yields IMF estimates for all magnetosheath data measured by MESSENGER, providing a useful tool for future investigations of the IMF impact on Mercury's magnetosphere. This method will be integrable with the dual‐spacecraft BepiColombo magnetosheath measurements, providing useful estimates of upstream IMF conditions particularly during the extended periods in which neither spacecraft sample the solar wind. Our results demonstrate the utility of machine learning techniques on advancing space science research.

Bowers, Charles F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biological carbon pump estimate based on multidecadal hydrographic data

The transfer of photosynthetically produced organic carbon from surface to mesopelagic waters draws carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, current observation-based estimates disagree on the strength of this biological carbon pump (BCP). Earth system models (ESMs) also exhibit a large spread of BCP estimates, indicating limited representations of the known carbon export pathways. Here we use several decades of hydrographic observations to produce a top-down estimate of the strength of the BCP with an inverse biogeochemical model that implicitly accounts for all known export pathways. Our estimate of total organic carbon (TOC) export at 73.4 m (model euphotic zone depth) is 15.00 ± 1.12 Pg C year –1 , with only two-thirds reaching 100 m depth owing to rapid remineralization of organic matter in the upper water column. Partitioned by sequestration time below the euphotic zone, τ, the globally integrated organic carbon production rate with τ > 3 months is 11.09 ± 1.02 Pg C year –1 , dropping to 8.25 ± 0.30 Pg C year –1 for τ > 1 year, with 81% contributed by the non-advective-diffusive vertical flux owing to sinking particles and vertically migrating zooplankton. Nevertheless, export of organic carbon by mixing and other fluid transport of dissolved matter and suspended particles remains regionally important for meeting the respiratory carbon demand. Here, the temperature dependence of the sequestration efficiency inferred from our inversion suggests that future global warming may intensify the recycling of organic matter in the upper ocean, potentially weakening the BCP.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimated Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

In this data descriptor, we present hourly electricity demand estimates for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016 to 2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components for each county. The first is the weighted average of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. The second is the weighted average of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A comparison of cost and quality of three methods for estimating density for wild pig (Sus scrofa)

A critical element in efective wildlife management is monitoring the status of wildlife populations; however, resources to monitor wildlife populations are typically limited. We compared cost efectiveness of three common population estimation methods (i.e. non-invasive DNA sampling, camera sampling, and sampling from trapping) by applying them to wild pigs (Sus scrofa) across three habitats in South Carolina, U.S.A where they are invasive. We used mark-recapture analyses for fecal DNA sampling data, spatially-explicit capture-recapture analyses for camera sampling data, and a removal analysis for removal sampling from trap data. Density estimates were similar across methods. Camera sampling was the least expensive, but had large variances. Fecal DNA sampling was the most expensive, although this technique generally performed well. We examined how reductions in efort by method related to increases in relative bias or imprecision. For removal sampling, the largest cost savings while maintaining unbiased density estimates was from reducing the number of traps. For fecal DNA sampling, a reduction in efort only minimally reduced costs due to the need for increased lab replicates while maintaining high quality estimates. For camera sampling, efort could only be marginally reduced before inducing bias. We provide a decision tree for researchers to help make monitoring decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of lithium mass yields from produced water sourced from the Devonian-aged Marcellus Shale

Abstract Decarbonatization initiatives have rapidly increased the demand for lithium. This study uses public waste compliance reports and Monte Carlo approaches to estimate total lithium mass yields from produced water (PW) sourced from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania (PA). Statewide, Marcellus Shale PW has substantial extractable lithium, however, concentrations, production volumes and extraction efficiencies vary between the northeast and southwest operating zones. Annual estimates suggest statewide lithium mass yields of approximately 1160 (95% CI 1140–1180) metric tons (mt) per year. Production decline curve analysis on PW volumes reveal cumulative volumetric disparities between the northeast (median = 2.89 X 10 7 L/10-year) and southwest (median = 5.56 × 10 7 L/10-year) regions of the state, influencing lithium yield estimates of individual wells in southwest [2.90 (95% CI 2.80–2.99) mt/10-year] and northeast [1.96 (CI 1.86–2.07) mt/10-year] PA. Moreover, Mg/Li mass ratios vary regionally, where NE PA are low Mg/Li fluids, having a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 5.39 (IQR, 2.66–7.26) and SW PA PW is higher with a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 17.8 (IQR, 14.3–20.7). These estimates indicate substantial lithium yields from Marcellus PW, though regional variability in chemistry and production may impact recovery efficiencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of solar photovoltaic energy curtailment due to volt–watt control

The widespread deployment of autonomous inverter‐based solutions for mitigating voltage and frequency excursions caused by high‐penetration photovoltaic (PV) systems has drawn increased attention due to their potential impact on PV production. It is now important to quantify the amount of solar energy curtailed as a result of the activation of inverter‐based grid support functions (GSFs). This study proposes a methodology for estimating the impact of volt–watt on customer PV energy curtailment using smart meter voltage data. This method estimates maximum possible curtailment for a given volt–watt curve based on the customer smart meter voltage during the time period of interest. This study compares the proposed methodology with field measurements using irradiance and customer inverter data from Hawaii as well as with results from a previous simulation‐driven study on the impact of advanced inverter GSF activation on PV energy curtailment. Results show that the proposed method for estimating lost PV production caused by volt–watt control aligns reasonably well with field measurements and computer simulations for hundreds of customers. The proposed method could be used to estimate customer energy curtailment, which could inform future compensation mechanisms for utilities leveraging customer‐sited resources to mitigate high voltage and defer infrastructure upgrades.

Emmanuel, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical analysis of Al III and C III ] emission lines as virial black hole mass estimators in quasars

We test the usefulness of the intermediate ionisation lines Al IIIλ1860 and C III]λ1909 as reliable virial mass estimators for quasars. We identified a sample of 309 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16 (SDSS DR16) in the redshift range 1.2 ≤ z ≤ 1.4 that have [O II]λ3728 recorded on the same spectrum as Al IIIλ1860, Si III]λ1892, and C III]λ1909. We set the systemic quasar redshift using careful measurements of [O II]λ3728. We then classified the sources as Population A (Pop. A), extreme Population A (Pop. xA), and Population B (Pop. B), and analysed the 1900 Å blend using multi-component models to look for systematic line shifts of Al IIIλ1860 and C III]λ1909 along the quasar main sequence. We do not find significant shifts of the Al IIIλ1860 line peak in Pop. B or in the vast majority of Pop. A. For Pop. xA, a small median blueshift of -250 km s -1 was observed, motivating a decomposition of the Al III line profile into a virialised component centred at rest frame and a blueshifted component for an outflow emission. For Pop. B objects, we proved the empirical necessity to fit a redshifted very broad component, clearly seen in C III], and analysed the physical implications on a Pop. B composite spectrum using CLOUDY simulations. We find consistent black hole mass estimations using Al III and C III] as virial estimators for the bulk of Pop. A. Al III (and even C III]) is a reliable virial black hole mass estimator for Pop. A and Pop. B objects. The Pop. xA sources deserve special attention due to the significant blueshifted excess observed in the line profile of Al III, although it is not as large as the excess observed in C IVλ1549.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic error estimation for non-intrusive reduced models learned from data of systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations

This work derives a residual-based a posteriori error estimator for reduced models learned with non-intrusive model reduction from data of high-dimensional systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations with control inputs. It is shown that quantities that are necessary for the error estimator can be either obtained exactly as the solutions of least-squares problems in a non-intrusive way from data such as initial conditions, control inputs, and high-dimensional solution trajectories or bounded in a probabilistic sense. Here, the computational procedure follows an offline/online decomposition. In the offline (training) phase, the high-dimensional system is judiciously solved in a black-box fashion to generate data and to set up the error estimator. In the online phase, the estimator is used to bound the error of the reduced-model predictions for new initial conditions and new control inputs without recourse to the high-dimensional system. Numerical results demonstrate the workflow of the proposed approach from data to reduced models to certified predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating Sediment Settling Velocities from a Theoretically Guided Data-Driven Approach

Sediment settling velocities are commonly estimated from analytical or process-based approaches. These approaches have theoretical constraints due to the incompletely resolved settling physics. A parametric data-driven approach was recently proposed without theoretical constraints, but it is limited by its mathematical assumptions. To overcome these limitations, here we apply a machine learning algorithm to an aggregated sediment settling experimental database and develops a nonparametric data-driven model to estimate the noncohesive sediment settling velocity in water. A cross-comparison against five process-based equations and a parametric data-driven equation demonstrates the higher accuracy and better consistency of the new model in estimating sediment settling velocities under various physical regimes. The new model also shows an easily implemented self-update capability by assimilating theoretical data derived from the process-based equations. The updated model, incorporating experimental and theoretical data of sediment settling processes, further improves the accuracy and reduces the uncertainty in estimating sediment settling velocities. This study demonstrates the capability of machine learning in sediment transport study and illustrates an alternative framework for other hydraulic engineering challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially and temporally resolved plasma parameter estimations of laser heated MagLIF relevant gas pipes at NIF

The ability to control laser pre-heat is an integral part of the inertial confinement fusion concept known as Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion. This process is studied at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) where 4 of the 192 laser beams are propagated through a 1-cm long gas cell where they deposit >20 kJ of energy into the gaseous fuel via inverse bremsstrahlung absorption. This process ionizes the gas, producing a plasma that follows behind the laser front and expands over the radius of the cell. Emission from this plasma, as viewed by a gated x-ray detector, can be used to build spatially and temporally resolved estimations of the pre-heat plasma's density and temperature profiles. This can then be used to estimate the plasma pressure, internal energy, and radiation losses. Estimations show the evolution of the plasma in magnetized and unmagnetized gas cells filled with ambient temperature neopentane (C5H12) +1% Ar, as well as unmagnetized cryogenically cooled (32 K) deuterium +1% Ne filled targets. This analysis shows the effects of initial gas-fill density, composition, and axial magnetization on the time-dependent plasma parameters. Previously, these parameters at the NIF had not been experimentally characterized, and these estimations provided a potential new means of testing radiation magneto-hydrodynamic predictive capability models. Results in unmagnetized targets have strong agreement with simulations. However, in targets with a 19 T applied axial magnetic field, this method yields electron temperatures up to 100% hotter than those predicted by HYDRA codes.

Bremsstrahlung↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accuracy of the duration estimates of ultrashort laser pulses using a single-shot second-order intensity autocorrelator

The accuracy of estimating the duration of single-cycle laser pulses with centre wavelengths of 910 and 780 nm is analysed using a single-shot second-order intensity autocorrelator. It is shown that estimates of the single-cycle pulse duration with an error of less than 5 % require the use of KDP crystals with a thickness of no more than 10 μm for the second harmonic generation. At the same time, to estimate the duration of a transform-limited pulse containing ten optical cycles, the crystal thickness can be up to 1 mm. In this case, at an optimum angle of convergence of the first-harmonic beams, the duration estimation error is less than 2 %. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating internal moisture generation rates in recently constructed, occupied homes in the southeastern United States

Internal moisture generation (IMG), or moisture generated by building occupants via activities such as respiration, cooking, bathing, and cleaning, is a critical input required for design, analysis, and simulation of building enclosure and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Based on previously published values, ASHRAE Standard 160-2021 provides guidance for estimating IMG rates for moisture control design analysis, which is based on occupied home datasets collected in the 1980s and 1990s. Residential energy use simulation software also utilizes estimates for IMG for energy rating, energy analysis, and code compliance calculations, as specified in ANSI/RESNET/ICC Standard 301. Data quantifying IMG rates in newer homes is useful in determining the continued relevance of current design and simulation guidance, and whether the guidance represents conditions found in new housing stock. ASHRAE Research Project 1844, conducted by the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), a research institute of the University of Central Florida, estimated IMG rates in newer occupied homes built since 2013 in the southeastern US using a moisture balance model approach. Furthermore, the project obtained occupied home data in cooperation with a US Department of Energy Building America research project to characterize indoor air quality (IAQ) in newer US homes, along with presence, functionality, and occupant use of control measures. Full-scale laboratory homes operating with known IMG rates were used to validate a moisture balance model and quantify the accuracy of estimates obtained when the model is applied to data from occupied homes with unknown IMG rates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗