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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of time-dependent deformation of shale on the integrity of a geological nuclear waste repository

Safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories is essential for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive waste. The long-term integrity of the host rock as well as the engineered barrier system (e.g., bentonite buffer) surrounding nuclear waste canisters is of particular importance as decay heat from nuclear waste canisters, which will last over thousands of years, significantly disturbs the thermo-hydromechanical (THM) state of the repository. In this study, THM coupled simulations were carried out to investigate the effect of time-dependent deformation (i.e., creep) of shale on the long-term integrity of a generic subsurface nuclear waste repository. The Norton-Bailey creep model, which is also known as the Lemaitre-Menzel-Schreiner model, was employed to simulate the power-law type creep that is observed in shales. The TOUGH-FLAC simulator was employed for the THM coupled modeling of the repository. The objective of this study is to assess the effect of creep in different shales (i.e., high creep shale vs. low creep shale) on long-term stress and permeability changes in the repository. Results show potential advantages of constructing repositories in the high creep shale, as deviatoric stress levels in the formation decreased to zero in 100 years since the emplacement of nuclear waste canisters and the permeability also decreased to the undamaged, intrinsic levels in 10,000 years. Also, mean effective stress levels in the bentonite buffer increased by 100% in the high creep shale case relative to the low creep shale case at 10,000 years due to creep-induced contraction of the nuclear waste disposal tunnel. However, in earlier periods (e.g., 1000 years), the stress levels in the bentonite buffer were twice smaller in the high creep shale case than in the low creep shale case, which shows a tradeoff between the intermediate- (~1000 years) and long-term (>10,000 years) compaction levels in the bentonite buffer depending on the creep characteristics of the host shale.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptively remeshed multiphysical modeling of resistance forge welding with experimental validation of residual stress fields and measurement processes

Welding processes used in the production of pressure vessels impart residual stresses in the manufactured component. Computational modeling is critical to predicting these residual stress fields and understanding how they interact with notches and flaws to impact pressure vessel durability. Here, in this work, we present a finite element model for a resistance forge weld and validate it using laboratory measurements. Extensive microstructural changes, near-melt temperatures, and large localized deformations along the weld interface pose significant challenges to Lagrangian finite element modeling. The proposed modeling approach overcomes these roadblocks in order to provide a high-fidelity simulation that can predict the residual stress state in the manufactured pressure vessel; a rich microstructural constitutive model accounts for material recrystallization dynamics, a frictional-to-tied contact model is coordinated with the constitutive model to represent interfacial bonding, and adaptive remeshing is employed to alleviate severe mesh distortion. An interrupted-weld approach is applied to the simulation to facilitate comparison to displacement measures. Several techniques are employed for residual stress measurement in order to validate the finite element model: neutron diffraction, the contour method, and the slitting method. Model-measurement comparisons are supplemented with detailed simulations that reflect the configurations of the residual-stress measurement processes themselves. The model results show general agreement with experimental measurements, and we observe some similarities in the features around the weld region. Factors that contribute to model-measurement differences are identified. Finally, we conclude with some discussion of the model development and residual stress measurement strategies, including how to best leverage the efforts put forth here for other weld problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of lignin degradation products on the generation of pseudo-lignin during dilute acid pretreatment

Pseudo-lignin is an insoluble material that tends to deposit on acidic pretreated fiber surface and negatively impacts the biological conversion of biomass to valued added products. Employing a laboratory generated acidic hydrolysate solution from dilute acid pretreatment of bamboo residues, we sought to seek an improved understanding of pseudo-lignin formation from fragmented carbohydrates. In addition, we also performed experiments to investigate how lignin model compounds interact with carbohydrates en route to pseudo-lignin’s formation. The yields of pseudo-lignin generated from xylose (CXPL) were higher than those generated from glucose (CGPL). Gas chromatography-Mass spectrometry and Foloin-Ciocalteau analysis suggested that there were more aromatic compounds in hydrolyzate during CGPL’s formation. The presence of lignin phenolic model compounds had both a positive and negative effect upon quantitative yields of pseudo-lignin. Gel permeation chromatography and NMR analysis ( 31 P and 2D-HSQC NMR) of the pseudo-lignin samples generated in the presence and absence of 4-hydroxybenzoic acid (4-HA), employed as a lignin model compound, revealed drastic differences in molecular weight, changes in hydroxyl group content, and hydrocarbon bonds, suggesting significant differences in the pseudo-lignin reaction pathways when certain lignin model compounds are present. Finally, our findings demonstrate the effects of both hemicellulose carbohydrate makeup and lignin model compound impact on the formation of pseudo-lignin and its chemical properties, suggesting a potential way to minimize pseudo-lignin formation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Achieving an 80% carbon-free electricity system in China by 2035

Dramatic reductions in solar, wind, and battery storage costs create new opportunities to reduce emissions and costs in China’s electricity sector, beyond current policy goals. This study examines the cost, reliability, emissions, public health, and employment implications of increasing the share of non-fossil fuel (“carbon free”) electricity generation in China to 80% by 2035. The analysis uses state-of-the-art modeling with high resolution load, wind, and solar inputs. The study finds that achieving an 80% carbon free electricity system in China by 2035 could reduce wholesale electricity costs, relative to a current policy baseline, while maintaining high levels of reliability, reducing deaths from air pollution, and increasing employment. In our 80% scenario, wind and solar generation capacity reach 3 TW and battery storage capacity reaches 0.4 TW by 2035, implying a rapid scale up in these resources that will require changes in policy targets, markets and regulation, and land use policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tailoring the coefficient of thermal expansion of ternary nickel alloys through compositional control and non-contact measurements

The majority of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) are made of silicon, however, future applications will be used in extreme environments, especially at elevated temperatures, and require materials with enhanced properties. Use of metal alloys in these applications will require microscale manufacturability, a balance of physical and mechanical properties and dimensional stability. Here in this paper, we emphasized dimensional stability by reducing the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and present an optical non-contact method for measuring the thermal expansion of planar thin films. A combinatorial approach was employed to determine the CTE of nickel-molybdenum-tungsten (Ni-Mo-W) sputter deposited films over a range of compositions, and the addition of Mo and W is shown to significantly decrease and provide a route for tailoring the CTE with compositional control. Ni-Mo-W alloys were revealed to have CTE values ranging from 8–12 × 10 -6 /°C, matching that of commercial glass substrates that are employed in numerous MEMS devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the microstructural stability in a y’-strengthened Ni-Fe-Cr-Al-Ti alloy

Ni-Fe-Cr-Al-Ti alloys, with Ni levels near 50 wt.%, have the potential to develop a microstructure consisting of a face-centered cubic ? matrix with the homogeneous precipitation of fine ordered ?’ precipitates similar to traditional Ni-based superalloys with significantly greater Ni content. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), atom probe tomography (APT), and CALPHAD -based thermodynamic modeling were employed to understand the phase stabilities and microstructural evolution in an age-hardenable Ni-27Fe-18Cr-1Co-1.6Al-3.75Ti-1.2Mo-0.03C (wt%) alloy. The primary heat-treatment of solution annealing at 1121°C for 4h and age-hardening treatment at 760 °C for 16h resulted in a microstructure consisting of fine ?’ precipitates in an austenitic matrix along with grain boundary carbides, consistent with thermodynamic calculations. Long-term aging at 900 °C for 250h resulted in the coarsening of ?’ along with a change in the morphology of the precipitates from spherical to a more cuboidal shape. In addition, ? phase formation was observed concomitant with the partial dissolution of the ?’ phase. The ability of computational thermodynamic models to predict microstructural characteristics is discussed.

Gwalani, Bharat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the nucleation and growth of Zr oxide precipitates in internally oxidized Nb3Sn superconductors

We report on atomic-scale analyses of nucleation and growth of Zr oxide precipitates and the microstructural evolution of internally oxidized Nb3Sn wires for high-field superconducting magnet applications, utilizing atom probe tomography (APT), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and first-principles calculations. APT analyses reveal that oxygen and zirconium are already segregated at grain boundaries (GBs) in the unreacted Nb-1Zr-4Ta (at%) alloy prior to forming Nb3Sn through reacting the Nb alloy with Sn and SnO2. After forming Nb3Sn, Zr oxide precipitates nucleate both at the Nb3Sn/Nb heterophase interfaces and in the Nb3Sn grains, driven by the small solubilities of Zr and O in Nb3Sn compared to their value in Nb. A high number density (Nv) of Zr oxide nanoprecipitates is observed in the Nb3Sn layers, ∼10 23 m −3 , with a mean diameter <10 nm for a heat treatment at 625 °C. Quantitative APT and TEM analyses of the Zr oxide precipitates in the reacted Nb3Sn layers elucidate details of the nucleation, growth, and coarsening processes of the Zr oxide precipitates in Nb3Sn. First-principles calculations and classical nucleation theory are employed to study the nucleation of Zr oxide precipitates in Nb3Sn and to estimate the maximum energy barrier and critical radius for nucleation. Our research unveils the kinetic pathways for nucleation and growth of Zr oxide precipitates and the microstructural evolution of Nb3Sn layers, which helps to understand and improve the superconducting properties of internally oxidized Nb3Sn wires for use in high-field superconducting magnets. •We investigated the nucleation and growth of Zr oxide nanoprecipitates in Nb3Sn superconductors for magnet applications.•APT and TEM analyses reveals the nucleation and growth process of Zr oxide precipitates in Nb3Sn layers.•Classical nucleation theory with DFT is employed to describe the nucleation process of Zr oxide precipitates in Nb3Sn.•We find that the interfacial reactions at Nb/Nb3Sn interface play a critical role in the nucleation of Zr oxide precipitates.•Current study provides a pathway to improve the properties of internally oxidized Nb3Sn superconducting wires.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of water on the kinetics of acetone hydrogenation over Pt and Ru catalysts

We employed an approach combining reaction kinetics measurements at steady state conditions, electronic structure calculations employing density functional theory, and microkinetic modeling for acetone hydrogenation to provide insights into the effects of water on metal catalyst surfaces for the hydrogenation of oxygenates over a wide range of reaction conditions. Elucidation of the repulsive interactions due to adsorbed water molecules at various reaction conditions provides a basis to formulate rate expressions for heterogeneous catalytic processes of biomass oxygenates. Reaction kinetics experiments were carried out at partial pressures of H 2 , acetone, water and helium in the range of 0.51-0.79, 0.02-0.13, 0.08-0.23, 0-0.28 atm, respectively. We show that the addition of water enhances the hydrogenation rate at 353 K and 1 atm on oxophilic metal catalysts such as Ru/C, whereas the same promotional effect of water is not observed for Pt-based catalysts. Microkinetic model predictions for the hydrogenation of acetone on Ru in the absence and presence of water, using enthalpies and entropies obtained from DFT calculations, were in agreement with the experimentally observed reaction orders and activation barriers. The model shows that a water-assisted hydroxypropyl path is expected to be the favored path on Ru with a rate-determining step of H-OH-mediated hydrogenation of C 3 H 6 OH (i.e., the hydroxypropyl intermediate formed by H 2 O-mediated initial hydrogenation of acetone) to produce isopropyl alcohol (IPA). Furthermore, hydrogen, acetone, hydroxypropyl intermediate and hydroxyl species were predicted to be abundant on the Ru surface with a high coverage of nearly 85%. Lastly, the combined studies of computational and experimental catalysis on hydrogenation reactions help to elucidate the mechanistic role of water on metal catalyzed reactions for producing chemical building blocks from biomass-derived oxygenates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Water-induced surface ordering facilitating the microcutting of ductile metals

Metal cutting is a crucial process in modern manufacturing. Enhancing the machinability of metals can significantly improve their production efficiency and surface integrity. Coating surface-active media (SAM) on the free surface of the metals before cutting is an easy method to improve machinability, which usually pertains to the category of the renowned Rehbinder effect. However, the existing SAM is usually hazardous and complex materials. Besides, the effect of SAM on the local structure of the metal surface remains unclear. In this study, water is employed as a simple yet often overlooked SAM in the microcutting of copper. Using water as SAM also allows the employment of X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (XAFS) to study the local structure of copper with and without water coating. Results show that water coating on the free surface of copper can significantly reduce the cutting force and chip thickness, and improve the surface finish. Interestingly, removing the water coating enables the recovery of the cutting force, demonstrating a reversible effect. Based on the XAFS results and molecular dynamics simulation, a water-induced surface ordering mechanism is proposed to explain the findings from the microcutting experiments. This mechanism suggests that water molecules can induce surface ordering in copper, resulting in reduced surface energy and fracture toughness of copper, thus enhancing machinability. In conclusion, this work provides valuable insights into the comprehension of the Rehbinder effect and shows that picometer-scale modifications of the surface atom arrangement can considerably alter the deformation mode of metals, paving the way for the development of new manufacturing processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

B-PINNs: Bayesian Physics-informal Neural Networks for Forward and Inverse PDE Problems with Noisy Data

We propose a Bayesian physics-informed neural network (B-PINN) to solve both forward and inverse nonlinear problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) and noisy data. In this Bayesian framework, the Bayesian neural network (BNN) combined with a PINN for PDEs serves as the prior while the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) or the variational inference (VI) could serve as an estimator of the posterior. B-PINNs make use of both physical laws and scattered noisy measurements to provide predictions and quantify the aleatoric uncertainty arising from the noisy data in the Bayesian framework. Compared with PINNs, in addition to uncertainty quantification, B-PINNs obtain more accurate predictions in scenarios with large noise due to their capability of avoiding overfitting. We conduct a systematic comparison between the two different approaches for the B-PINNs posterior estimation (i.e., HMC or VI), along with dropout used for quantifying uncertainty in deep neural networks. Our experiments show that HMC is more suitable than VI with mean field Gaussian approximation for the B-PINNs posterior estimation, while dropout employed in PINNs can hardly provide accurate predictions with reasonable uncertainty. Finally, we replace the BNN in the prior with a truncated Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion combined with HMC or a deep normalizing flow (DNF) model as posterior estimators. The KL is as accurate as BNN and much faster but this framework cannot be easily extended to high-dimensional problems unlike the BNN based framework.

Non linear PDEs, Noisy data, Bysian physics inform↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parallel transport dynamics for mixed quantum states with applications to time-dependent density functional theory

Direct simulation of the von Neumann dynamics for a general (pure or mixed) quantum state can often be expensive. One prominent example is the real-time time-dependent density functional theory (rt-TDDFT), a widely used framework for the first principle description of many-electron dynamics in chemical and materials systems. Practical rt-TDDFT calculations often avoid the direct simulation of the von Neumann equation, and solve instead a set of Schrödinger equations, of which the dynamics is equivalent to that of the von Neumann equation. However, the time step size employed by the Schrödinger dynamics is often much smaller. Here, in order to improve the time step size and the overall efficiency of the simulation, we generalize a recent work of the parallel transport (PT) dynamics for simulating pure states [An, Lin, Multiscale Model. Simul. 18, 612, 2020] to general quantum states. The PT dynamics provides the optimal gauge choice, and can employ a time step size comparable to that of the von Neumann dynamics. Going beyond the linear and near adiabatic regime in previous studies, we find that the error of the PT dynamics can be bounded by certain commutators between Hamiltonians, density matrices, and their derived quantities. Such a commutator structure is not present in the Schrödinger dynamics. We demonstrate that the parallel transport-implicit midpoint (PT-IM) method is a suitable method for simulating the PT dynamics, especially when the spectral radius of the Hamiltonian is large. The commutator structure of the error bound, and numerical results for model rt-TDDFT calculations in both linear and nonlinear regimes, confirm the advantage of the PT dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning functional priors and posteriors from data and physics

In this work, we develop a new Bayesian framework based on deep neural networks to be able to extrapolate in space-time using historical data and to quantify uncertainties arising from both noisy and gappy data in physical problems. Specifically, the proposed approach has two stages: (1) prior learning and (2) posterior estimation. At the first stage, we employ the physics-informed Generative Adversarial Networks (PI-GAN) to learn a functional prior either from a prescribed function distribution, e.g., Gaussian process, or from historical data and physics. At the second stage, we employ the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate the posterior in the latent space of PI-GANs. In addition, we use two different approaches to encode the physics: (1) automatic differentiation, used in the physicsinformed neural networks (PINNs) for scenarios with explicitly known partial differential equations (PDEs), and (2) operator regression using the deep operator network (DeepONet) for PDE-agnostic scenarios. We then test the proposed method for (1) meta-learning for one-dimensional regression, and forward/inverse PDE problems (combined with PINNs); (2) PDE-agnostic physical problems (combined with DeepONet), e.g., fractional diffusion as well as saturated stochastic (100-dimensional) flows in heterogeneous porous media; and (3) spatial-temporal regression problems, i.e., inference of a marine riser displacement field using experimental data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide accurate predictions as well as uncertainty quantification given very limited scattered and noisy data, since historical data could be available to provide informative priors. In summary, the proposed method is capable of learning flexible functional priors, e.g., both Gaussian and non-Gaussian process, and can be readily extended to big data problems by enabling mini-batch training using stochastic HMC or normalizing flows since the latent space is generally characterized as low dimensional.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast nonlinear iterative solver for an implicit, energy-conserving, asymptotic-preserving charged-particle orbit integrator

Here recently, an asymptotic-preserving (AP) particle orbit integrator has been proposed with remarkable properties including exact energy conservation, the ability to capture of all first-order drifts (including the ∇B-drift), the ability to capture trapped-passing boundaries with parallel velocity extremely close to the critical velocity, and the ability to transition from strongly to weakly magnetized spatial regions. The new AP orbit integrator is implicit, employing a Crank-Nicolson (CN) temporal discretization to ensure exact energy conservation. This, in turn, requires a local nonlinear iteration involving particle velocities and positions, and the local electromagnetic fields, to obtain the new-time solution. Ref. [1] did not attempt to provide an efficient solver for this system, and employed a brute-force GMRES-driven Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) solver to invert the particle orbit equations at every timestep for expediency. While JFNK is robust and reliable, it is also expensive and very intrusive for practical implementations of the method (it requires having the JFNK machinery available and solving a 6 x 6 Jacobian system iteratively once per iteration per particle).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementing contact angle boundary conditions for second-order Phase-Field models of wall-bounded multiphase flows

In the present work, a general formulation is proposed to implement the contact angle boundary conditions for the second-order Phase-Field models, which is applicable to N-phase (N ≥ 2) moving contact line problems. To remedy the issue of mass change due to the contact angle boundary condition, a source term or Lagrange multiplier is added to the original second-order Phase-Field models, which is determined by the consistent and conservative volume distribution algorithm so that the summation of the order parameters and the consistency of reduction are not influenced. To physically couple the proposed formulation to the hydrodynamics, especially for large-density-ratio problems, the consistent formulation is employed. The reduction-consistent conservative Allen-Cahn models are chosen as examples to illustrate the application of the proposed formulation. The numerical scheme that preserves the consistency and conservation of the proposed formulation is employed to demonstrate its effectiveness. Results produced by the proposed formulation are in good agreement with the exact and/or asymptotic solutions. The proposed method captures complex dynamics of moving contact line problems having large density ratios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost-efficient finite-volume high-order schemes for compressible magnetohydrodynamics

We present an efficient dimension-by-dimension finite-volume method which solves the adiabatic magnetohydrodynamics equations at high discretization order, using the constrained-transport approach on Cartesian grids. Results are presented up to tenth order of accuracy. The algorithmic architecture of this method is very close to that of commonly employed second-order schemes: it requires only one reconstructed value per face for each computational cell, independently of the scheme's order. This property is highly beneficial for the numerical efficiency. It results from reusing the required values already available in neighboring grid cells, in contrast to standard algorithms that require a number of reconstructions and evaluations which increases with the scheme's order of accuracy. At a given resolution, these high-order schemes present significantly less numerical dissipation than commonly employed lower-order approaches. Thus, results of comparable accuracy are achievable at a substantially coarser resolution, yielding overall performance gains. We also present a way to include physical dissipative terms: viscosity, magnetic diffusivity and cooling functions, respecting the finite-volume and constrained-transport frameworks. Benefits of this method are shown through applications in turbulent flows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗