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Growing Impact of Wildfire on Western US Water Supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs ( P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

wildfire↗

CubeSat Technology Past and Present: Current State-Of-The-Art Survey

A cube satellite (CubeSat) is an evolving and emerging technology that gives a novice or advanced researcher relatively affordable access to space research experiments and applications. The initial CubeSat standard was created in 1999 by California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo and Stanford University’s Space Systems Development Lab to facilitate direct access to space for university students. This initial CubeSat standard has now been adopted by hundreds of organizations worldwide and includes not only universities, educational institutions, but private firms and government organizations. Dozens of CubeSats have been launched since 2003 and have come from more than 29 states in the United States. The CubeSat standard facilitates frequent and affordable access to space with launch opportunities available on most launch vehicles. CubeSats are a class of research spacecraft called nanosatellites and are built to standard CubeSat Units or U dimensions of 10 by 10 by 10 cm and are formally classified as 1U, 2U, 3U, or 6U in size. Most CubeSats are deployed from a Poly-Picosatellite Orbital Deployer called a P-POD. Partnerships among NASA, U.S. industry, and educational institutions are being formed to build upon existing successful CubeSat initiatives with a goal to expand and include launching 50 small satellites from 50 states within the next several years. An extensive and detailed literature review that includes over 830 citations has been conducted to provide a comprehensive resource on both NASA and non-NASA CubeSat experiments and applications that can serve as a guide for background information on CubeSats as well as a valuable resource of lessons learned from CubeSats that have been launched in the past. CubeSats are currently being launched from all over the world on different launch vehicle platforms. Some organizations providing launch opportunities are California Polytechnic State University (http://www.cubesat.org/contactus), ISISPACE Group (https://www.isispace.nl/), Nanoracks (http://nanoracks.com/), Spaceflight Industries, Inc. (http://spaceflight.com/), TriSept Corporation (https://trisept.com/), and Tyvak Nano-Satellite Systems, Inc. (https://www.tyvak.com/).

Cubesat↗

Spaceflight Medical Evacuation Risk Assessment Principles - A Qualitative Investigation

BACKGROUND Future human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will require innovative solutions in many areas, primarily those that provide direct medical support to crew on long-duration missions and optimize their health and performance. The associated challenges therein will be numerous, including but not necessarily limited to extended one-way or "asynchronous" communication delays, minimal to non-existent resupply, and a prolonged transit time to "definitive care" ranging from 3-days to 9-months. At the same time, long-duration exploration spacecraft and crew will face restrictions on mass, power, volume, and data far more significant than that seen in current LEO settings. Given these limitations, medical risk assessment is of primary importance, especially evaluating the implications of a medical evacuation of an ill or injured crewmember. Such evacuations are complicated, potentially dangerous, and well may be impossible in certain phases of the mission. Regardless, such issues must be weighed against the risks of the injured crew remaining aboard a spacecraft with limited medical resources. OBJECTIVE This qualitative study drew from the experiences of subject matter experts (SMEs) in spaceflight and appropriate analog environments (i.e., military, disaster, and extreme environment fields) to identify unique principles common amongst medical evacuation considerations helpful in informing future risk assessment tools. Appropriate analog environments included austere operational settings where multiple factors (weather, logistics/limited resupply, denied/extreme environments, and patient condition) resulted in a limited ability to provide definitive local medical care. The fundamental principles in question revolved around scenarios where evacuation became a complicating yet necessary consideration and where life-threatening medical concerns had to be weighed against critical mission objective(s). The primary authors collected semi-structured data gathered through in-depth interviews with 16 subject matter experts (SMEs). Interview questions investigated how these SMEs consider and weigh the attendant risks present in medical evacuation scenarios. Among the critical questions posed were those that sought to understand how the SME balanced the challenges and requirements of medical evacuation (or keeping an injured patient "on-site" aka: "prolonged field care") against the evacuation operation's risks on impacting overarching mission success. The team analyzed interview transcripts for common themes and principles using the qualitative methods of thematic analysis based on consensus, co-occurrence, and comparison. As a result, nine primary risk consideration themes and nine contributing factor themes emerged, all of which will ideally inform future medical evacuation decision-making tools and operational decision-making for exploration class missions. Specific aims for this study included: 1. Identification of common principles used to assess risks and benefits of medical evacuations in extreme environments 2. Identification of common points of friction or complication and challenges in extreme environment evacuations

A T Almand↗

Predicting Fiber Failure of Plain Weave Fabric with Recursive Multiscale Micromechanics

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of machine learning models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based, modeling of material behavior at various length scales, and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using machine learning (ML) techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train machine learning models and the defining model parameters and architectures. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in for various types of machine learning models while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for machine learning data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, can help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Failure↗

Assessing Ceres’ Past and Current Habitability

Dwarf planet Ceres is a compelling target as an evolved ocean world with, at least, regional brine reservoirs and potentially ongoing geological activity. Situated in the Main Belt of asteroids, Ceres is the most water-rich body in the inner solar system (in relative abundance) and is accessible enough for a sample return with the resources of a typical medium-class (New Frontiers) NASA mission. NASA’s Dawn mission at Ceres revealed the presence of liquid, brine-driven activity, organic matter, and a rich salt chemistry. With this evidence, the overarching goals of the mission concept presented herein are to quantify Ceres’ current habitability potential and origin. A sample return from young evaporite deposits in Occator crater offers greater science return than an in situ exploration mission by enabling high-resolution analysis of (1) organic matter expected from terrestrial and chondritic analogs that are trapped in salt minerals and (2) isotopes of refractory elements for a similar cost and less science risk. The sample return concept would be executed with a single flight system due to Ceres’ relative proximity to Earth and low gravity. Solar electric propulsion was identified as the most cost-effective approach for getting to Ceres and back. De-orbiting, landing, and takeoff are performed with a throttleable monopropellant hydrazine system. The solar arrays are stowed prior to landing and takeoff. Sample acquisition builds on the pneumatic system designed by Honeybee Robotics. The sample return mission concept relies on the availability of key technologies: an enhanced landing vision system leveraging investments from Mars 2020; retractable/redeployable solar arrays, which have been demonstrated on the International Space Station but not at Ceres’ gravity; and an emerging design from upcoming missions for sample transfer from the pneumatic sampling system to the sample return capsule. Return of a sample of mass ~100 g from Ceres, maintained at ≤ -20°C, is without precedent for any currently advocated Ocean World mission, enabling a vast range of experimental techniques back on Earth with sensitivities and accuracies far beyond those feasible with in situ instruments. A sample of this size also enables analyses to benefit from techniques that will become available in the future.

Casillas, Raul Polit↗

Improved Spacecraft Materials for Radiation Protection

Methods by which radiation shielding is optimized need to be developed and materials of improved shielding characteristics identified and validated. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are very penetrating and the energy absorbed by the astronaut behind the shield is nearly independent of shield composition and even the shield thickness. However, the mix of particles in the transmitted beam changes rapidly with shield material composition and thickness. This results in part from the breakup of the high-energy heavy ions of the GCR which make contributions to biological effects out of proportion to their deposited energy. So the mixture of particles in the radiation field changes with shielding and the control of risk contributions from dominant particle types is critical to reducing the hazard to the astronaut. The risk of biological injury for a given particle type depends on the type of biological effect and is specific to cell or tissue type. Thus, one is faced with choosing materials which may protect a given tissue against a given effect but leave unchanged or even increase the risk of other effects in the same tissue or increase the risks to other adjacent tissues of a different type in the same individual. The optimization of shield composition will then be tied to a specific tissue and risk to that tissue. Such peculiarities arise from the complicated mixture of particles, the nature of their biological response, and the details of their interaction with material constituents. Aside from the understanding of the biological response to specific components, one also needs an accurate understanding of the radiation emerging from the shield material. This latter subject has been a principal element of this project. In the past ten years our understanding of space radiation interactions with materials has changed radically, with a large impact on shield design. For example, the NCRP estimated that only 2 g/sq cm. of aluminum would be required to meet the annual 500 mSv limit for the exposure of the blood forming organs (this limit is strictly for LEO but can be used as a guideline for the Mars mission analysis). The current estimates require aluminum shield thicknesses above 50 g/sq cm., which is impractical. In such a heavily shielded vehicle, the neutrons produced throughout the vehicle also contribute significantly to the exposure and this demands greater care in describing the angular dependence of secondary particle production processes. As such the continued testing of databases and transport procedures in laboratory and spaceflight experiments has continued. This has been the focus of much of the last year's activity and has resulted in improved neutron prediction capability. These new methods have also improved our understanding of the surface environment of Mars. The Mars 2003 NRA HEDS related surface science requirements were driven by the need to validate predictions on the upward flux of neutrons produced in the Martian regolith and bedrock made by the codes developed under this project. The codes used in the surface environment definition are also being used to look at in situ resources for the development of construction material for Martian surface facilities. For example, synthesis of polyimides and polyethylene as binders of regolith for developing basic structural elements has been studied and targets built for accelerator beam testing of radiation shielding properties. Preliminary mechanical tests have also been promising. Improved spacecraft materials have been identified (using the criteria reported by this project at the last conference) as potentially important for future shielding materials. These are liquid hydrogen, hydrogenated nanofibers, liquid methane, LiH, Polyethylene, Polysulfone, and Polyetherimide (in order of decreasing shield performance). Some of the materials are multifunctional and are required for other onboard systems. We are currently preparing software for trade studies with these materials relative to the Mars Reference Mission as required in the project's final year.

Wilson, John W.↗

Exploration Medical Capability Clinical Decision Support System Concept of Operations

The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP). Specifically, the CDS project addresses the ExMC gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system. For long-duration, deep space missions, computational and data resources will play an important role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance where the crew will need to be more self-reliant as we enter a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. These ambitious goals will require significant change in in-flight medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time, skills reduction over time and medical evacuation capabilities. These constraints make it absolutely necessary to develop transformative solutions using new technologies. Unlike the current paradigm for crew health in low-Earth orbit missions that rely on constant communication with Mission Control, the deep space missions will experience communication delays and possibly, no communications for finite periods of time. Hence, crew health management will benefit from analytics’ capabilities to augment decision support. A comprehensive, multi-functional on-board clinical decision support system (CDSS) will help crews assess and diagnose conditions, decide appropriate responses, and guide the provision of tailored and evidence-based treatments, while reflecting contextual factors and constraints. The context may include present and historical data, viable diagnostic equipment, available supplies and medications, and vehicle and environmental health. Communication time with ground-based personnel is delayed or non-existent during significant portions of the mission so the crew will need to autonomously respond to health, performance and medical situations, particularly those that are unplanned. The CDSS must also provide additional capabilities as complex as training for an emergency situation while augmenting non-expert practitioner skillsets if the Crew Medical Officer (CMO) is incapacitated, and as routine as facilitating delayed communication with flight surgeons on the ground. The CDSS must connect complex issues involving health, wellness, task performance and environmental domains. Furthermore, CDSS functionality will focus on semi-autonomous and autonomous decision-making by the crew that is necessary to address challenges in executing a self-contained medical system that enables health care without assistance from ground clinical experts. The document, ExMC CDSS Architecture Recommendation, (HRP- 48032) establishes a description of the envisioned CDSS architecture. The analytics, descriptive or advanced, contained in a CDSS will interface with the integrated crew health and performance architecture that provides the appropriate data sets. The aim of the CDS project is to develop requirements for a CDSS through a series of test-bed prototype developments and demonstrations.

HRP↗

Optical data processing and projected applications of the ERTS-1 imagery covering the 1973 Mississippi River Valley floods

Flooding along the Mississippi River and some of its tributaries was imaged by the multispectral scanner (MSS) on the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS-1) on at least three orbits during the spring of 1973. The ERTS data provided the first opportunity for mapping the regional extent of flooding at the time the imagery was acquired. Special optical data processing techniques were used to produce a variety of multispectral color composites which enhanced floodplain details. One of these, a two-color composite of near infrared bands 6 and 7, was enlarged and registered to 1:250,0OO-scale topographic maps and used as the basis for preparation of flood image maps. Two specially filtered three-color composites of MSS bands 5, 6, and 7 and 4, 5, and 7 were prepared to aid in the interpretation of the data. The extent of the flooding was vividly depicted on a single image by two-color temporal composites produced on the additive-color viewer using band 7 flood data superimposed on pre-flood band 7 images. On May 24, when the floodwaters at St. Louis receded to bankfull stage, imagery was again obtained by ERTS. Analysis of temporal data composites of the pre-flood and post-flood band 7 images indicate that changes in surface reflectance characteristics caused by the flooding can be delineated, thus making it possible to map the overall area flooded without the necessity of a real-time system to track and image the peak flood waves. Regional planning and disaster relief agencies such as the Corps of Engineers, Office of Emergency Preparedness, Soil Conservation Service, interstate river basin commissions and state agencies, as well as private lending and insurance institutions, have indicated strong potential applications for ERTS image-maps of flood-prone areas.

Morris Deutsch↗

A Systems Approach to Lower Cost Missions: Following the Rideshare Paradigm

Small-satellite rideshare capabilities and opportunities for low-cost access to space have been evolving over the past 10 years. Small space launch vehicle technology is rapidly being developed and demonstrated, including the Minotaur series and the Space X Falcon, among others, along with the lower cost launch facilities at Alaska's Kodiak Launch Complex, NASA's Wallops Flight Facility, and the Reagan Test Site in the Pacific. Demonstrated capabilities for the launch of multiple payloads have increased (and continue to increase) significantly. This will allow more efficient and cost-effective use of the various launch opportunities, including utilizing the excess capacity of the emerging Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV)-based missions. The definition of standardized interfaces and processes, along with various user guides and payload implementation plans, has been developed and continues to be refined. Top-level agency policies for the support of low-cost access to space for small experimental payloads, such as the DoD policy structure on auxiliary payloads, have been defined and provide the basis for the continued refinement and implementation of these evolving technologies. Most importantly, the coordination and cooperative interfaces between the various stakeholders continues to evolve. The degree of this coordination and technical interchange is demonstrated by the wide stakeholder participation at the recent 2008 Small Payload Rideshare Workshop, held at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility. This annual workshop has been the major platform for coordination and technical interchange within the rideshare community and with the various sponsoring agencies. These developments have provided the foundation for a robust low-cost small payload rideshare capability. However, the continued evolution, sustainment, and utilization of these capabilities will require continued stakeholder recognition, support, and nourishing. Ongoing, coordinated effort, partnering, and support between stakeholders is essential to acquire the improved organizational processes and efficiencies required to meet the needs of the growing small payload community for low-cost access to space. Further, a mix of capabilities developed within the space community for Operationally Responsive Space, an international committee investigating space systems cross-compatibility, and an industry-based organization seeking small satellite "standardization" all work toward a new paradigm: sharing or leveraging resources amongst multiple users. The challenge: where are those users, and what is the best way to leverage them? What is leveraged-mass, power, cost-sharing? And how does one sort through these options? What policies may prevent the use of some options? Who are the "other users" that might share or leverage capabilities? This paper presents a systematic look at both the users and the launch options, and suggests a way forward.

access to space↗

Percutaneous aspiration of fluid for management of peritonitis in space

BACKGROUND: As a medical emergency that can affect even well-screened, healthy individuals, peritonitis developing during a long-duration space exploration mission may dictate deviation from traditional clinical practice due to the absence of otherwise indicated surgical capabilities. Medical management can treat many intra-abdominal processes, but treatment failures are inevitable. In these circumstances, percutaneous aspiration under sonographic guidance could provide a "rescue" strategy. Hypothesis: Sonographically guided percutaneous aspiration of intra-peritoneal fluid can be performed in microgravity. METHODS: Investigations were conducted in the microgravity environment of NASA's KC-135 research aircraft (0 G). The subjects were anesthetized female Yorkshire pigs weighing 50 kg. The procedures were rehearsed in a terrestrial animal lab (1 G). Colored saline (500 mL) was introduced through an intra-peritoneal catheter during flight. A high-definition ultrasound system (HDI-5000, ATL, Bothell, WA) was used to guide a 16-gauge needle into the peritoneal cavity to aspirate fluid. RESULTS: Intra-peritoneal fluid collections were easily identified, distinct from surrounding viscera, and on occasion became more obvious during weightless conditions. Subjectively, with adequate restraint of the subject and operators, the procedure was no more demanding than during the 1-G rehearsals. CONCLUSIONS: Sonographically guided percutaneous aspiration of intra-peritoneal fluid collections is feasible in weightlessness. Treatment of intra-abdominal inflammatory conditions in spaceflight might rely on pharmacological options, backed by sonographically guided percutaneous aspiration for the "rescue" of treatment failures. While this risk mitigation strategy cannot guarantee success, it may be the most practical option given severe resource limitations.

Non-NASA Center↗

Climate Information and Lessons Learned from the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX), Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT), and the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES)

Climate resilience can emerge from a combination of (1) climate projections that enable future-oriented planning and (2) contemporary observations that can be used for adaptation in the face of realized climate. NASA is uniquely positioned to provide global climate projections and satellite-based observations to users who must take a global perspective on climate risk (e.g., supply chain managers). Here, we will share the capabilities and experiences of three NASA projects. The first project, the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX) provides two downscaled climate projections, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, a global 25 km resolution product, and NEX-DCP30-CMIP6, an 800 m resolution product covering the coterminous U.S. specifically designed for U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). NEX also offers land surface products that mirror the twice-daily products provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) but are derived from operational geostationary weather satellite data collected at 5-10 minutes intervals. The second project, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), was established in 2002 to transition unique NASA satellite products and capabilities to stakeholders to improve decision-making that benefits society. SPoRT provides products and capabilities derived from NASA observations and models to end users in government, academia, and the private sector. SPoRT translates NASA Earth science into actionable solutions reaching over 400 stakeholders across 80 organizations. Finally, the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is designed to facilitate regional-scale evaluations of climate models by providing standardized access to a vast and comprehensive set of observations, such as satellite, in-situ, and reanalyses, and modeling resources such as CMIP & CORDEX. These three projects form part of the core capabilities at the NASA Centers deliver climate information under the new NASA Earth Science to Action (ES2A) strategy.

NEX↗

CHP-PRA Proof-of-Concept [Simulation] Sensitivity Assessment

An effort is underway to establish a Crew Health and Performance system (CHP) tradespace tool using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling and simulation system. The goal of the CHP-PRA effort is to provide a means of quantifying the integrated influence of CHP functions and capabilities on risk outcome metrics associated with health, performance, and long-term health. These metrics can then be used to establish potential risk-based trades on CHP system designed functionality and capabilities. Previously, our team demonstrated a proof-of-concept PRA approach that estimated the integrated influence of exercise countermeasures on 8 human system risks (Figure 1a) with outcomes associated with health and medical risk metrics. We reported that the change in the integrated relative health risk was small (Figure 1b) and that the small change in overall risk resulted from compounding and competing contribution levels of the individual risks. This interesting observation illustrates the emergent complexity of even straightforward representations of the human health and performance risk space and the ability of PRA models to capture this balance of global risk concerns. A key question that is not addressed in the initial analysis is “even though the global risk is relatively nominal, do any of the local risks become unacceptable?” In essence, we seek to determine what relative change in the human system risks are contributing to the relatively muted sensitivity of the proof-of-concept model combined risk assessments. Evaluations at the component risk level should elucidate if any individual risk reaches a high level that is subsequentially balanced by reductions in other areas. To further understand the relative changes in the component risks in the proof-of-concept model, and to elucidate how future refinements can be targeted, a means of establishing the contributions of the robustness of the proof-of-concept approach will be demonstrated.

astronaut health↗

Enabling Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling During Early Phases of Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult -- in both cost and schedule -- to enact. Indeed, the current capability-based paradigm that has emerged because of the constrained economic environment calls for the infusion of knowledge acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bring knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture as the need for more economically viable access to space solutions are needed in today's constrained economic environment. The problem of ascent trajectory optimization is not a new one. There are several programs that are widely used in industry that allows trajectory analysts to, based on detailed vehicle and insertion orbit parameters, determine the optimal ascent trajectory. Yet, little information is known about the launch vehicle early in the design phase - information that is required of many different disciplines in order to successfully optimize the ascent trajectory. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. Additionally, when these obstacles are coupled with The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories [1] (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, it requires expert trajectory analysts to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. As it has been pointed out, the paradigm of trajectory optimization is still a very manual one because using modern computational resources on POST is still a challenging problem. The nuances and difficulties involved in correctly utilizing, and therefore automating, the program presents a large problem. In order to address these issues, the authors will discuss a methodology that has been developed. The methodology is two-fold: first, a set of heuristics will be introduced and discussed that were captured while working with expert analysts to replicate the current state-of-the-art; secondly, leveraging the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously, and therefore, enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre-conceptual and conceptual phases of design. When this methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, the authors were able to visualize the trajectory design space, enabling parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be introduced with other pre-conceptual and conceptual design tools. The potential impact of this methodology's success would be a fully automated POST evaluation suite for the purpose of conceptual and preliminary design trade studies. This will enable engineers to characterize the ascent trajectory's sensitivity to design changes in an arbitrary number of dimensions and for finding settings for trajectory specific variables, which result in optimal performance for a "dialed-in" launch vehicle design. The effort described in this paper was developed for the Advanced Concepts Office [2] at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

Holt, James B.↗

Mars Surface System Common Capabilities and Challenges for Human Missions

NASA has begun a process to identify and evaluate candidate locations where humans could land, live and work on the martian surface. These locations are referred to as Exploration Zones (EZs). Given current mission concepts, an EZ is a collection of Regions of Interest (ROIs) that are located within approximately 100 kilometers of a centralized landing site. ROIs are areas that are relevant for scientific investigation and/or development/maturation of capabilities and resources necessary for a sustainable human presence. The EZ also contains a landing site and a habitation site that will be used by multiple human crews during missions to explore and utilize the ROIs within the EZ. In parallel with this process, NASA continues to make progress on the Evolvable Mars Campaign examining alternatives that can pioneer an extended human presence on Mars that is Earth independent. This involves ongoing assessments of surface systems and operations to enable a permanent, sustainable human presence. Because of the difficulty in getting equipment and supplies to the surface of Mars, part of these assessments involve identifying those systems and processes that can perform in multiple, sometimes completely unrelated, situations. These assessments have been performed in a very generic surface mission carried out at a very generic surface location. As specific candidate EZs are identified it becomes important to evaluate the current suite of surface systems and operations as they are likely to perform for the specific locations and for the types of operations - both scientific and development - that are proposed for these EZs. It is also important to evaluate the proposed EZs for their suitability to be explored or developed given the range of capabilities and constraints for the types of surface systems and operations being considered within the EMC. This means looking at setting up and operating a field station at a central location within the EZ as well as traversing to and exploring the scientific ROIs within the boundaries of the EZ. The proposed paper will describe the current status of common systems and operations as they can be applied to actual EZ locations on Mars. Initially these EZs will be the four locations identified MEPAG's Human Exploration of Mars Science Analysis Group (HEM‐SAG) that will be used as representative of the EZs that will emerge from the process that NASA has initiated. An example process that could be commonly applied is an approach for developing a field station site plan that would be demonstrated by applying this process to each of the four HEM‐SAG sites. Examples of common systems include (a) mobility systems that can be used to off‐load and move payloads to specific locations at the central field station location that could also be used to traverse long distances to reach some of the more remote ROIs or (b) robotic systems that can support various activities (such as system set up and maintenance) at the field station that could also be used to explore scientific ROIs and used to support site‐specific ISRU production activities.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗

Mars Sample Return Landed with Red Dragon

A Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission is the highest priority science mission for the next decade as recommended by the recent Decadal Survey of Planetary Science. However, an affordable program to carry this out has not been defined. This paper describes a study that examined use of emerging commercial capabilities to land the sample return elements, with the goal of reducing mission cost. A team at NASA Ames examined the feasibility of the following scenario for MSR: A Falcon Heavy launcher injects a SpaceX Dragon crew capsule and trunk onto a Trans Mars Injection trajectory. The capsule is modified to carry all the hardware needed to return samples collected on Mars including a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), an Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) and Sample Collection and Storage hardware. The Dragon descends to land on the surface of Mars using SuperSonic Retro Propulsion (SSRP) as described by Braun and Manning [IEEEAC paper 0076, 2005]. Samples are acquired and deliverd to the MAV by a prelanded asset, possibly the proposed 2020 rover. After samples are obtained and stored in the ERV, the MAV launches the sample-containing ERV from the surface of Mars. We examined cases where the ERV is delivered to either low Mars orbit (LMO), C3 = 0 (Mars escape), or an intermediate energy state. The ERV then provides the rest of the energy (delta V) required to perform trans-Earth injection (TEI), cruise, and insertion into a Moon-trailing Earth Orbit (MTEO). A later mission, possibly a crewed Dragon launched by a Falcon Heavy (not part of the current study) retrieves the sample container, packages the sample, and performs a controlled Earth re-entry to prevent Mars materials from accidentally contaminating Earth. The key analysis methods used in the study employed a set of parametric mass estimating relationships (MERs) and standard aerospace analysis software codes modified for the MAV class of launch vehicle to determine the range of performance parameters that produced converged spacecraft designs capable of meeting mission requirements. Subsystems modeled in this study included structures, power system, propulsion system, nose fairing, thermal insulation, actuation devices, and GN&C. Best practice application of loads and design margins for all resources were used. Both storable and cryogenic propellant systems were examined. The landed mass and lander capsule size provide boundary conditions for the MAV design and packaging. We estimated the maximum mass the Dragon capsule is capable of landing. This and the volume capability to store the MAV was deduced from publically available data from SpaceX as well as our own engineering and aerodynamic estimates. Minimum gross-liftoff mass (GLOM) for the MAV were obtained for configurations that used pump-fed storable bi-propellant rocket engines for both the MAV and the ERV stage. The GLOM required fits within our internal estimate of the mass that Dragon can land at low elevation/optimal seasons on Mars. Based on the analysis, we show that a single Mars launch sample return mission is feasible using current commercial capabilities to deliver the return spacecraft assets.

Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV)↗

How Did I Get Here?

What country was responsible for much of the early work in laser altimetry, who was the first scientist to look at a vegetation profile generated by a laser, who first related laser ranges to forest structure? The purpose of this paper is to look back 3+ decades ago when forestry lidar was in its formative years and to give credit to those who first thought to employ a laser to measure the Earth's surface. As with much scientific research, advances were often made independently and concurrently in a number of countries. Functioning lasers were first demonstrated in 1960 in the USA and in 1961 in the USSR, but research into the use of lasers as forest measurement tools did not begin for another IS years. Initially, with respect to Earth resources, lasers were employed to measure sea ice surface roughness, to make near-shore bathymetric measurements, to penetrate forests to make detailed topographic measurements, and to fluoresce oceanic phytoplankton for surface current studies. Some of these early studies noted that forest profiles were evident but in fact added noise to topographic retrievals. Trees became the signal rather than noise in 1976 when researchers in the Canadian Forest Service went to an IUFRO conference in Oslo and reported on efforts to better estimate timber volume in tropical forests. They employed large-scale airphotos (1:500 up to 1:4000) to measure the top of the tropical canopy, an avionic radar to measure the location of the ground beneath the canopy, and a barometric sensor to record aircraft/radar height above a datum (e.g., sea level). Their radar did not work well in dense vegetation and mentioned in passing that a laser altimeter had worked well in Canadian forests. But in a report 2 years later they reported that, on a study area in Costa Rica, the radar ground line was much improved and no mention is made of a lidar altimeter. In the USSR in 1977, Russian researchers felled a birch and a spruce, aimed a helium-neon, 0.63 micron laser with a spot size of approx 25mm, at the horizontal trees, produced a profilograph, compared it to tape measurements, and concluded that, with increased power, such a laser could be mounted on an aircraft to remotely measure forest canopies. In 1979, they mounted their He-Ne laser on an AN-2 biplane and acquired their fIrSt airborne profiles. Scientists with TRANARG, a mapping/surveying company in Caracas, Venezuela, reported on 1976 flights employing a helium-neon lidar to collect over 11,000 km of lidar profiles spaced 1.5 km apart in order to construct a topographic map to help site a new reservoir. They noted 35-40 m median canopy heights with emergents up to 55 m in their profiles. These studies and others that utilize these height and canopy density metrics for forest mensuration are reviewed in this glance backwards at the history of forestry lidar.

Nelson, Ross↗

GeneLab: A Systems Biology Platform for Spaceflight Omics Data

NASA's mission includes expanding our understanding of biological systems to improve life on Earth and to enable long-duration human exploration of space. Resources to support large numbers of spaceflight investigations are limited. NASA's GeneLab project is maximizing the science output from these experiments by: (1) developing a unique public bioinformatics database that includes space bioscience relevant "omics" data (genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics) and experimental metadata; (2) partnering with NASA-funded flight experiments through bio-sample sharing or sample augmentation to expedite omics data input to the GeneLab database; and (3) developing community-driven reference flight experiments. The first database, GeneLab Data System Version 1.0, went online in April 2015. V1.0 contains numerous flight datasets and has search and download capabilities. Version 2.0 will be released in 2016 and will link to analytic tools. In 2015 Genelab partnered with two Biological Research in Canisters experiments (BBRIC-19 and BRIC-20) which examine responses of Arabidopsis thaliana to spaceflight. GeneLab also partnered with Rodent Research-1 (RR1), the maiden flight to test the newly developed rodent habitat. GeneLab developed protocols for maxiumum yield of RNA, DNA and protein from precious RR-1 tissues harvested and preserved during the SpaceX-4 mission, as well as from tissues from mice that were frozen intact during spaceflight and later dissected. GeneLab is establishing partnerships with at least three planned flights for 2016. Organism-specific nationwide Science Definition Teams (SDTs) will define future GeneLab dedicated missions and ensure the broader scientific impact of the GeneLab missions. GeneLab ensures prompt release and open access to all high-throughput omics data from spaceflight and ground-based simulations of microgravity and radiation. Overall, GeneLab will facilitate the generation and query of parallel multi-omics data, and deep curation of metadata for integrative analysis, allowing researchers to uncover cellular networks as observed in systems biology platforms. Consequently, the scientific community will have access to a more complete picture of functional and regulatory networks responsive to the spaceflight environment.. Analysis of GeneLab data will contribute fundamental knowledge of how the space environment affects biological systems, and enable emerging terrestrial benefits resulting from mitigation strategies to prevent effects observed during exposure to space. As a result, open access to the data will foster new hypothesis-driven research for future spaceflight studies spanning basic science to translational science.

proteomics↗

Commercialization and Human Settlement of the Moon and Cislunar Space – A Look Ahead at the Possibilities over the Next 50 Years

Over 50 years have passed since the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey debuted in April 1968. In the film, Dr. Heywood Floyd flies to a large artificial gravity space station orbiting Earth aboard a commercial space plane. He then embarks on a commuter flight to the Moon arriving there 25hours later. Today, on the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 lunar landing, the images portrayed in 2001 still remain well beyond our capabilities. This paper examines key technologies and systems (in-situ resource utilization, fission power, advanced chemical and nuclear propulsion),and orbiting infrastructure elements (providing a propellant depot and cargo transfer function),that could be developed by NASA and the private sector in future decades allowing the operational capabilities presented in 2001 to be achieved, albeit on a more spartan scale. Lunar derived propellants (LDPs) will be essential to reducing the launch mass requirements from Earth and developing a reusable lunar transportation system (LTS) that can allow initial outposts to evolve into settlements supporting a variety of commercial activities like in-situ propellant production. Deposits of icy regolith found within permanently shadowed craters at the lunar pole scan supply the feedstock material to produce liquid oxygen (LO2) and hydrogen (LH2) propellan tneeded by surface-based lunar landing vehicles (LLVs) using chemical rocket engines. Along the Moon's nearside equatorial corridor, iron oxide-rich volcanic glass beads from vast pyroclasticdeposits, together with mare regolith, can provide the materials to produce lunar-derived LO2plus other important solar wind implanted (SWI) volatiles, including H2 and helium-3. Mega watt classfission power systems will be essential for providing continuous "24/7" power to LLVs will provide cargo and passenger "orbit-to-surface" access and willalso be used to transport LDP to Space Transportation Nodes (STNs) located in lunar polar(LPO) and equatorial orbits (LLO). Spaced-based, reusable lunar transfer vehicles (LTVs),operating between STNs in low Earth orbit (LEO), LLO, and LPO, and able to refuel with LDPs,can offer unique mission capabilities including short transit time crewed cargo transports. Even acommuter shuttle service similar to that portrayed in 2001 appears possible, allowing 1-way trip times to and from the Moon as short as 24 hours. The performance of LTVs using both RL10B-2chemical rockets, and a variant of the nuclear thermal rocket (NTR), the LO2-Augmented NTR(LANTR), are examined and compared. The bipropellant LANTR engine utilizes its divergent nozzle section as an afterburner into which oxygen is injected and supersonically combusted with reactor-heated hydrogen emerging from the engine's sonic throat. If only 1% of the LDP obtained from icy regolith, volcanic glass, and SWI volatile deposits were available for use in lunar orbit,such a supply could support routine commuter flights to the Moon for many thousands of years!This paper provides a look ahead at what might be possible in the not too distant future,quantifies the operational characteristics of key in-space and surface technologies and systems,and provides conceptual designs for the various architectural elements discussed.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗