Visualizing Earth Science Climate Model and Digital Twin data in XR
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Advances in computing capabilities and scientific development have come together to evolve general circulation models into multi-scale Earth system modeling tools. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model is one such example of this evolution. The GEOS model is driven by the finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Surrounding FV3 is a scale-aware physics package and data assimilation capability permitting multi-scale application of GEOS for sub-seasonal to seasonal climate prediction, medium range weather prediction, and global mesoscale modeling at convection allowing resolutions. GEOS also includes a comprehensive chemistry package representing a range of capabilities from basic chemistry and interactve aerosols and gaseous species, to carbon emissions and uptake, and complex ozone photochemistry. In this study, we apply the GEOS model to study the fidelity of these processes with increasing horizontal resolution and scale-aware processes in GEOS on extreme events. The GEOS model is run for 40-days beginning in August 2016 at three uniform global resolutions of 13-km (c768), 6-km (c1536) and 3-km (c3072) with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01mb. The model physics use the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme to dynamically reduce the role of parameterized deep convection as resolved scale processes in the model take over at higher resolutions. We will include high-resolution global emissions and fluxes of aerosols and carbon downscaled from recent satellite observations. We will compare these simulations with reanalyses and observations, focusing on rainfall, clouds and radiative forcing at hourly to monthly timescales. We will closely examine the probability distribution of precipitation intensities and radiative properties of clouds on a daily time scale. In addition, we will focus on extreme events, in particular the diurnal cycle of convection over the US and the frequency and physical nature of organized convection and heavy rain events across the globe.
The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA), and The Ohio State University (OSU) have collaborated to develop an improved spherical harmonic model of the Earth's gravitational potential to degree 360. The new model, Earth Gravitational Model 1996 (EGM96), incorporates improved surface gravity data, altimeter-derived gravity anomalies from ERS-1 and from the GEOSAT Geodetic Mission (GM), extensive satellite tracking data-including new data from Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), the Global Postioning System (GPS), NASA's Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), the French DORIS system, and the US Navy TRANET Doppler tracking system-as well as direct altimeter ranges from TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P), ERS-1, and GEOSAT. The final solution blends a low-degree combination model to degree 70, a block-diagonal solution from degree 71 to 359, and a quadrature solution at degree 360. The model was used to compute geoid undulations accurate to better than one meter (with the exception of areas void of dense and accurate surface gravity data) and realize WGS84 as a true three-dimensional reference system. Additional results from the EGM96 solution include models of the dynamic ocean topography to degree 20 from T/P and ERS-1 together, and GEOSAT separately, and improved orbit determination for Earth-orbiting satellites.
The usefulness of long-wavelength potential field anomalies in lithospheric interpretation is greatly increased with spherical Earth modeling techniques. Gauss-Legendre quadrature integration is used to calculate the anomalous potential of gravity and magnetic fields and their spatial derivatives on a spherical Earth for an arbitrary body represented by an equivalent point source distribution of gravity poles or magnetic dipoles. The distribution of equivalent point sources is determined directly from the coordinate limits of the source volume. Variable integration limits for an arbitrarily shaped body are derived from interpolation of points which approximate the body's surface envelope. The versatility of the method is enhanced by the ability to treat physical property variations within the source volume and to consider variable magnetic fields over the source and observation surface. A number of examples verify and illustrate the capabilities of the technique, including preliminary modeling of potential field signatures for Mississippi embayment crustal structure at satellite elevations.
Two possible models of Jupiter's magnetosphere are compared: a pulsar-like radial-outflow model and an earth-like convection model. For the radial-outflow model, Pioneer 10 data are used to estimate the total particle and energy fluxes which must be provided by Jupiter (or its magnetosphere within the Alfven radius) to power the outflow. The convection model is considered with emphasis on field-line reconnection, convection flow time, and the location of Jupiter's magnetopause and plasmapause. The imposition of corotation on Jupiter's ionosphere, magnetosphere, and upper atmosphere is investigated in terms of an aligned rotator with either type of magnetosphere. It is concluded that: (1) Jupiter's convection flow is likely to be super-Alfvenic in its outer magnetosphere, (2) Jupiter may have earth-like magnetopauses near local dawn during substorms, (3) the angular-momentum flux that can diffuse upward through Jupiter's polar-cap atmospheres seems insufficient to impose corotation upon a radial outflow or convective return flow, and (4) neither model can be definitively accepted.
Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to re-grid, combine, overwrite, subset, and scale emissions from different inventories through a configuration file and with no change to the model source code. The configuration file also maps emissions to model species with appropriate units. HEMCO can operate in offline stand-alone mode, but more importantly it provides an online facility for models to compute emissions at runtime. HEMCO complies with the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) for portability across models. We present a new version here, HEMCO 3.0, that features an improved three-layer architecture to facilitate implementation into any atmospheric model and improved capability for calculating emissions at any model resolution including multiscale and unstructured grids. The three-layer architecture of HEMCO 3.0 includes (1) the Data Input Layer that reads the configuration file and accesses the HEMCO library of emission inventories and other environmental data, (2) the HEMCO Core that computes emissions on the user-selected HEMCO grid, and (3) the Model Interface Layer that re-grids (if needed) and serves the data to the atmospheric model and also serves model data to the HEMCO Core for computing emissions dependent on model state (such as from dust or vegetation). The HEMCO Core is common to the implementation in all models, while the Data Input Layer and the Model Interface Layer are adaptable to the model environment. Default versions of the Data Input Layer and Model Interface Layer enable straightforward implementation of HEMCO in any simple model architecture, and options are available to disable features such as re-gridding that may be done by independent couplers in more complex architectures. The HEMCO library of emission inventories and algorithms is continuously enriched through user contributions so that new inventories can be immediately shared across models. HEMCO can also serve as a general data broker for models to process input data not only for emissions but for any gridded environmental datasets. We describe existing implementations of HEMCO 3.0 in (1) the GEOS-Chem “Classic” chemical transport model with shared-memory infrastructure, (2) the high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP) model with distributed-memory architecture, (3) the NASA GEOS Earth System Model (GEOS ESM), (4) the Weather Research and Forecasting model with GEOS-Chem (WRF-GC), (5) the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), and (6) the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System – Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols), as well as the planned implementation in the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS). Implementation of HEMCO in CESM2 contributes to the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA) by providing a common emissions infrastructure to support different simulations of atmospheric chemistry across scales.
Although vigorous mantle convection early in the thermal history of the earth is shown to be capable of removing several times the latent heat content of the core, a thermal evolution model of the earth in which the core does not solidify can be constructed. The large amount of energy removed from the model earth's core by mantle convection is supplied by the internal energy of the core which is assumed to cool from an initial high temperature given by the silicate melting temperature at the core-mantle boundary. For the smaller terrestrial planets, the iron and silicate melting temperatures at the core-mantle boundaries are more comparable than for the earth; the models incorporate temperature-dependent mantle viscosity and radiogenic heat sources in the mantle. The earth models are constrained by the present surface heat flux and mantle viscosity and internal heat sources produce only about 55% of the earth model's present surface heat flow.
The radiation models were compared on the basis of the approaches used for the transport calculations and absorption coefficients and of results obtained for the radiation flux profiles and spectral distributions. The calculated results were for shock layer conditions representative of manned earth reentry from an interplanetary mission. The three models are RATRAP, RADICAL, and MDAC. The results show that significant differences exist in the radiation flux computed by the three models. The RADICAL model was found to depend on fewer approximations, to include more detail, and to require less computer time than the other models.
As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections.
A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.
A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was recently released by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution than the previous, (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, and now includes the assimilation of along-track sea surface height. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. Analysis of the ensemble spread shows improvements relative to the previous system, including generally better reliability. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.
Modeling and measurement results used in formulating an environment model that can be used for the engineering design of spacecraft are reviewed. Earth-based and space-based sensors are analyzed and it is noted that the effects of satellite breakups can be modeled to predict a uncatalogued population, if the nature of the breakup is understood. It is observed that the telescopic data indicate that the current model is too low for sizes slightly larger than 10 cm, and may be too low for sizes between 2 cm and 10 cm, while there is an uncertainty in the current development, especially for sizes smaller than 10 cm, and at altitudes different from 500 km. Projections for the catastrophic collision rate for different growth conditions are made, emphasizing that the rate of growth of fragments will be twice the rate of intact objects.
Earth-GRAM (Earth-Global Reference Atmospheric Model) Overview: Provides monthly statistics at any point in the atmosphere; Monthly, geographic, altitude variation; Current Version - Earth-GRAM 2016, C++; Output Includes - pressure, density, temperature, horizontal and vertical winds, speed of sound, atmospheric constituents; Used by engineering community to create atmospheric dispersions at a rapid runtime; Not a forecast model. MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) Background: Developed by NASA Goddard Modelling and Assimilation Office; Horizontal Resolution: 0.625 degrees by 0.5 degrees longitude-by-latitude grid (NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis I vs. 2.5 degrees by 2.5 degrees currently used in Earth-GRAM); Vertical resolution: 72 model layers or interpolated to 42 pressure levels to 0.1 hectopascals (hPa) (NCEP reanalysis I, surface to 10hPa at 17 pressure levels).