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DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of Electromagnetic Methods for Reservoir Monitoring with Emphasis on Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage

The Controlled-Source ElectroMagnetic (CSEM) method provides crucial information about reservoir fluids and their spatial distribution. Carbon dioxide (CO2) storage, enhanced oil recovery (EOR), geothermal exploration, and lithium exploration are ideal applications for the CSEM method. The versatility of CSEM permits its customization to specific reservoir objectives by selecting the appropriate components of a multi-component system. To effectively tailor the CSEM approach, it is essential to determine whether the primary target reservoir is resistive or conductive. This task is relatively straightforward in CO2 monitoring, where the injected fluid is resistive. However, for scenarios involving brine-saturated (water-wet) or oil-wet (carbon capture, utilization, and storage—CCUS) reservoirs, consideration must also be given to conductive reservoir components. The optimization of data acquisition before the survey involves analyzing target parameters and the sensitivity of multi-component CSEM. This optimization process typically includes on-site noise measurements and 3D anisotropic modeling. Based on our experience, subsequent surveys tend to proceed smoothly, yielding robust measurements that align with scientific objectives. Other critical aspects to be considered are using magnetotelluric (MT) measurements to define the overall background resistivities and integrating real-time quality assurance during data acquisition with 3D modeling. This integration allows the fine tuning of acquisition parameters such as acquisition time and necessary repeats. As a result, data can be examined in real-time to assess subsurface information content while the acquisition is ongoing. Consequently, high-quality data sets are usually obtained for subsequent processing and initial interpretation with minimal user intervention. The implementation of sensitivity analysis during the inversion process plays a pivotal role in ensuring that the acquired data accurately respond to the target reservoirs’ expected depth range. To elucidate these concepts, we present an illustrative example from a CO2 storage site in North Dakota, USA, wherein the long-offset transient electromagnetic method (LOTEM), a variation of the CSEM method, and the MT method were utilized. This example showcases how surface measurements attain appropriately upscaled log-scale sensitivity. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the CSEM and MT methods was examined in other case histories, where the target reservoirs exhibited conductive properties, such as those encountered in enhanced oil recovery (EOR), geothermal, and lithium exploration applications. The same equipment specifications were utilized for CSEM and MT surveys across all case studies.

Barajas-Olalde, César↗

NASA NTRS1999

Remote Sensing of Rain

The first problem addressed concerns passive-microwave rain retrievals. Most current approaches start by building off-line a cloud-model-derived database. Given data, the retrieval algorithms search the database for the microwave temperatures "closest" to the observed data, then after some fine-tuning (performed in different ways by different implementations) the rain is estimated to be that which corresponds to the selected (and fine-tuned) set of database temperatures. These approaches have three drawbacks: they cannot properly take into account the ambiguities which arise from the fact that several rain scenarios can produce the same observed temperatures; they are quite inefficient since they require manipulating a large database along with often complex "fine-tuning" procedures; and they cannot refine their estimates if additional data is available. This past year we have derived closed formulae relating observed microwave brightness temperatures, T(sub b), and the underlying rain rates, R: average T(sub b) =f (rain) and average rain = g (T(sub b)), along with the corresponding covariance matrices. These results are sufficient to describe the conditional probabilities p(R/T(sub b)) and p(T(sub b)/R) to second order. Progress has also been made towards deriving a robust description of the rain drop size distribution (DSD). The widespread approach consisting in parameterizing the DSD as a gamma-distribution in terms of the drop diameter D suffers from the facts that, in reality, the DSD is not a smooth function of D and that the largely arbitrary Gamma model imposes unintended behavior, which has implications on any quantities derived from the DSD model. We have therefore developed a non-parametric yet practical description of the DSD, which is particularly well-suited for use in remote-sensing applications. The diagram on the left shows a comparison between an actual DSD sample and the truncated non-parametric representation. One figure shows the relation between radar reflectivity and rain rate derived using this representation. Validation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) radar-radiometer combined R and DSD algorithm is underway. This algorithm was designed to make optimal use of the instantaneous reflectivity profiles measured by the TRMM radar and the microwave brightness temperatures measured by the TRMM passive radiometer. So far, it appears to be the most reliable TRMM rain algorithm.

Haddad, Ziad S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput spin-bath characterization of spin defects in semiconductors

Detailed knowledge of the local environments of spin defects in semiconductors, such as nitrogenvacancy (NV) centers in diamond or divacancies in silicon carbide, is crucial for optimizing control and entanglement protocols in quantum sensing and information applications. However, at present a direct experimental characterization of individual defect environments is not scalable, as conventional spin-bath measurements are time consuming and difficult to automate. Achieving high-throughput characterization requires short experiments to probe the spin bath. However, with fewer and noisier measurements, the inverse problem of recovering spin-bath properties from measured data becomes ill posed, with multiple spin baths having a high likelihood of yielding the same data. In this work, we present a set of computational tools to resolve the ill-posed inverse problem of recovering the atomic positions and hyperfine couplings of random nuclei surrounding spin defects from sparse, noisy experimental coherence data, which can be obtained in hours. Here, we use a trans-dimensional Bayesian approach that incorporates ab initio data to yield full posterior distributions over nuclear spin environments, enabling robust recovery from limited data. We also provide practical tools and guidelines to determine the limits of detectability for hyperfine couplings under specific dynamical decoupling sequences and sampling conditions. In addition, we demonstrate how the tools developed here, in combination with ab initio simulations of spin baths, can guide the design of efficient experimental protocols for application-specific high-throughput screening. To showcase the utility of our approach, we apply it to design fast dynamical decoupling experiments to characterize the spin baths often individual NV centers in diamond. While the primary focus is on accelerating spin-bath characterization of spin defects, this Bayesian approach also lays the foundation for digital-twin studies of spin defects, where a virtual model of the spin-defect system evolves in real time with ongoing experimental measurements. Together, the set of tools we designed and applied paves the way for scalable deployment of spin defects in semiconductors for quantum sensing and information applications.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2020

Toward fusion plasma scenario planning for NSTX-U using machine-learning-accelerated models

One of the most promising devices for realizing power production through nuclear fusion is the tokamak. To maximize performance, it is preferable that tokamak reactors achieve advanced operating scenarios characterized by good plasma confinement, improved magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability, and a largely non-inductively driven plasma current. Such scenarios could enable steady-state reactor operation with high \emph{fusion gain} --- the ratio of produced fusion power to the external power provided through the plasma boundary. Precise and robust control of the evolution of the plasma boundary shape as well as the spatial distribution of the plasma current, density, temperature, and rotation will be essential to achieving and maintaining such scenarios. The complexity of the evolution of tokamak plasmas, arising due to nonlinearities and coupling between various parameters, motivates the use of model-based control algorithms that can account for the system dynamics. In this work, a learning-based accelerated model trained on data from the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) is employed to develop planning and control strategies for regulating the density and temperature profile evolution around desired trajectories. The proposed model combines empirical scaling laws developed across multiple devices with neural networks trained on empirical data from NSTX-U and a database of first-principles-based computationally intensive simulations. The reduced execution time of the accelerated model will enable practical application of optimization algorithms and reinforcement learning approaches for scenario planning and control development. An initial demonstration of applying optimization approaches to the learning-based model is presented, including a strategy for mitigating the effect of leaving the finite validity range of the accelerated model. The approach shows promise for actuator planning between experiments and in real-time.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Dispersion Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring

Studying hydrogen dispersion is crucial for ensuring the safe and effective deployment of hydrogen as an energy carrier. This study presents a comprehensive CFD modeling framework for simulating hydrogen dispersion at a real-world hydrogen production, storage, and utilization facility. Utilizing the Hydrogen Research Facility under the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Flatirons campus, controlled hydrogen releases at 27 kg-H2/hr were simulated. The model incorporated site-specific atmospheric conditions, including hourly wind speeds and temperatures recorded between 8 AM and 8 PM from October to December 2023. To reduce computational demands, a statistical reduction technique was applied to condense the dataset to 100 representative scenarios, validated by statistical tests for wind speeds and power law coefficients. Simulations were conducted using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Results demonstrated that wind speed substantially influences hydrogen dispersion, with low wind conditions forming concentrated clouds and higher wind speeds stretching the plume. Additionally, clustering analysis informed optimal sensor placement at various elevations with up to 10 sensor locations on each elevation. This framework offers a robust approach for understanding hydrogen behavior in ambient conditions and informing detection strategies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the basis for vegetation growth and drives the land carbon cycle. Accurately simulating gross primary production (GPP, ecosystem-level apparent photosynthesis) is key for satellite monitoring and Earth system model predictions under climate change. While robust models exist for describing leaf-level photosynthesis, predictions diverge due to uncertain photosynthetic traits and parameters which vary on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we describe and evaluate a GPP (photosynthesis per unit ground area) model, the P-model, that combines the Farquhar–von Caemmerer–Berry model for C 3 photosynthesis with an optimality principle for the carbon assimilation–transpiration trade-off, and predicts a multi-day average light use efficiency (LUE) for any climate and C 3 vegetation type. The model builds on the theory developed in Prentice et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2017a) and is extended to include low temperature effects on the intrinsic quantum yield and an empirical soil moisture stress factor. The model is forced with site-level data of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) and meteorological data and is evaluated against GPP estimates from a globally distributed network of ecosystem flux measurements. Although the P-model requires relatively few inputs, the R 2 for predicted versus observed GPP based on the full model setup is 0.75 (8 d mean, 126 sites) – similar to comparable satellite-data-driven GPP models but without predefined vegetation-type-specific parameters. The R 2 is reduced to 0.70 when not accounting for the reduction in quantum yield at low temperatures and effects of low soil moisture on LUE. The R 2 for the P-model-predicted LUE is 0.32 (means by site) and 0.48 (means by vegetation type). Applying this model for global-scale simulations yields a total global GPP of 106–122 Pg C yr –1 (mean of 2001–2011), depending on the fAPAR forcing data. The P-model provides a simple but powerful method for predicting – rather than prescribing – light use efficiency and simulating terrestrial photosynthesis across a wide range of conditions. The model is available as an R package (rpmodel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Uncertainty Management Framework for Integrated Gas-Electric Energy Systems

In many parts of the world, electric power systems have seen a significant shift toward generation from renewable energy and natural gas. Because of their ability to flexibly adjust power generation in real time, gas-fired power plants are frequently seen as the perfect partner for variable renewable generation. However, this reliance on gas generation increases interdependence and propagates uncertainty between power grids and gas pipelines and brings coordination and uncertainty management challenges. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty management framework for uncertain, but bounded gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. The admissible ranges are computed based on a joint optimization problem for the combined gas and electricity networks, which involves chance-constrained scheduling for the electric grid and a novel robust optimization formulation for the natural-gas network. This formulation ensures feasibility of the integrated system with a high probability, while providing a tractable numerical formulation. A key advance with respect to existing methods is that our method is based on a physically accurate, validated model for transient gas pipeline flows. Our case study benchmarks our proposed formulation against methods that ignore how reserve activation impacts the fuel use of gas power plants and only consider predetermined gas consumption. Here, the results demonstrate the importance of considering uncertainty to avoid operating constraint violations and curtailment of gas to the generators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Humins-Derived Hard Carbon as a Low-Cost Material for Sodium-Ion Battery Anodes

The growing demand for sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) in grid storage underscores the need for electrode materials that balance performance and cost, including sustainable and robust carbon sources. The equitable and abundant distribution of materials for SIBs, along with their superior low-temperature performance, safety, and fast-charging capability, further distinguishes them from lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Hard carbon (HC) is the state-of-the-art anode for SIBs, but current commercial HC production is localized mostly to one region of the world, raising concerns about supply chain vulnerability, critical material dependency, and environmental aspects. Here, the first demonstration of humins, an abundant biorefinery byproduct, as a precursor for HC anodes for sodium-ion storage is reported. Humins were carbonized at 1100 degrees C-1300 degrees C, and the resulting materials were subjected to comprehensive materials and electrochemical characterization. Among the temperatures studied, humins-derived hard carbon synthesized at 1200 degrees C delivers an initial reversible capacity 270mA h g-1 , with stable cycling performance up to 500 cycles and excellent rate capability, representing the optimal performance. This study establishes humins as a promising and low-cost carbon source that provides a route to mitigate supply chain risks and valorizes an underutilized biorefinery waste stream for high-performance SIB anodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)

Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Systematic and Extensible Force Field for Peptoids (STEPs)

Peptoids (N-substituted glycines) are a class of biomimetic polymers that have attracted significant attention due to their accessible synthesis and enzymatic and thermal stability relative to their naturally occurring counterparts (polypeptides). While these polymers provide the promise of more robust functional materials via hierarchical approaches, they present a new challenge for computational structure prediction for material design. The reliability of calculations hinges on the accuracy of interactions represented in the force field used to model peptoids. For proteins, structure prediction based on sequence and de novo design has made dramatic progress in recent years; however, these models are not readily transferable for peptoids. Current efforts to develop and implement peptoid-specific force fields are spread out, leading to replicated efforts and a fragmented collection of parameterized sidechains. Here, we developed a peptoid-specific force field containing 70 different side chains, using GAFF2 as starting point. The new model is validated based on the generation of Ramachandran-like plots from DFT optimization compared against force field reproduced potential energy and free energy surfaces as well as the reproduction of equilibrium cis/trans values for some residues experimentally known to form helical structures. In conclusion, equilibrium cis/trans distributions (Kct) are estimated for all parameterized residues to identify which residues have an intrinsic propensity for cis or trans states in the monomeric state.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

The role of iron in magnetic damping of Mg(Al,Fe) 2 O 4 spinel ferrite thin films

© 2020 Author(s). We have investigated magnesium aluminum ferrite thin films with a range of iron concentrations and identified the optimal iron content to obtain high crystalline quality thin films with the low magnetic damping required for spin current-based applications. Epitaxial MgAl 2-x FexO4 films with 0.8 < x < 2.0 were grown by pulsed laser deposition on single crystal MgAl2O4 substrates and were characterized structurally and magnetically. We find that the x = 1.5 composition minimizes the room-temperature magnetic damping with a typical Gilbert damping parameter of α eff = 1.8 × 10-3. This minimized damping is governed by a competition between the more robust magnetic ordering with increased iron content, x, and the more defective structure due to larger film-substrate lattice mismatch with increased iron content. The temperature-dependent magnetization curves indicate that Tc is suppressed below room temperature for iron content x ≤ 1.2 and eventually suppressed entirely for x = 0.8. X-ray magnetic circular dichroism results indicate that for all x the magnetic moment is dominated by Fe 3 + cations distributed in a 60:40 ratio on the octahedral and tetrahedral sites, with minimal contribution from Fe 2 + cations. Films with x = 1.4-1.6 exhibit very strong ferromagnetic resonance and low Gilbert damping with α eff = (1.8-6) × 10-3, making them ideal candidates for microwave and spintronic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Constraining the Galaxy-halo Connection with Optimal Statistics

Applying halo models to analyze the small-scale clustering of galaxies is a proven method for characterizing the connection between galaxies and their host halos. Such works are often plagued by systematic errors or limited to clustering statistics that can be predicted analytically. In this work, we employ a numerical mock-based modeling procedure to examine the clustering of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 galaxies. We apply a standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) model to dark matter only simulations with a ΛCDM cosmology. To constrain the theoreStical models, we utilize a combination of galaxy number density and selected scales of the projected correlation function, redshift-space correlation function, group multiplicity function, average group velocity dispersion, mark correlation function, and counts-in-cells statistics. We design an algorithm to choose an optimal combination of measurements that yields tight and accurate constraints on our model parameters. Compared to previous work using fewer clustering statistics, we find a significant improvement in the constraints on all parameters of our halo model for two different luminosity-threshold galaxy samples. Most interestingly, we obtain unprecedented high-precision constraints on the scatter in the relationship between galaxy luminosity and halo mass. However, our best-fit model results in significant tension (>4σ) for both samples, indicating the need to add second-order features to the standard HOD model. To guarantee the robustness of these results, we perform an extensive analysis of the systematic and statistical errors in our modeling procedure, including a first of its kind study of the sensitivity of our constraints to changes in the halo mass function due to baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large Scale Study of Ligand–Protein Relative Binding Free Energy Calculations: Actionable Predictions from Statistically Robust Protocols

The accurate and reliable prediction of protein–ligand binding affinities can play a central role in the drug discovery process as well as in personalized medicine. Of considerable importance during lead optimization are the alchemical free energy methods that furnish an estimation of relative binding free energies (RBFE) of similar molecules. Recent advances in these methods have increased their speed, accuracy, and precision. This is evident from the increasing number of retrospective as well as prospective studies employing them. However, such methods still have limited applicability in real-world scenarios due to a number of important yet unresolved issues. Here, we report the findings from a large data set comprising over 500 ligand transformations spanning over 300 ligands binding to a diverse set of 14 different protein targets which furnish statistically robust results on the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of RBFE calculations. We use ensemble-based methods which are the only way to provide reliable uncertainty quantification given that the underlying molecular dynamics is chaotic. These are implemented using TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling). Results achieve chemical accuracy in all cases. Ensemble simulations also furnish information on the statistical distributions of the free energy calculations which exhibit non-normal behavior. We find that the “enhanced sampling” method known as replica exchange with solute tempering degrades RBFE predictions. We also report definitively on numerous associated alchemical factors including the choice of ligand charge method, flexibility in ligand structure, and the size of the alchemical region including the number of atoms involved in transforming one ligand into another. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable application of RBFE methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time GPU-Accelerated OFDR With an Integrated Auxiliary Interferometer

A GPU-accelerated optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) system with an improved integrated auxiliary interferometer is proposed. Unlike conventional approaches that require separate auxiliary interferometers and multiple detection channels, the proposed OFDR system embeds this functionality directly into the signal via an intentional beat component. This enables self-calibration of laser nonlinearity while maintaining a cost-effective hardware configuration. Building on this simplified configuration, the system leverages GPU acceleration with an NVIDIA RTX 4070 Ti to achieve real-time performance, delivering high-throughput signal processing for continuous OFDR interrogation. The signal processing pipeline comprises signal capture, resampling for nonlinearity compensation, and frequency shift computation, all optimized for parallel execution. Hardware benchmarking demonstrates substantial acceleration over CPU implementations, achieving up to a 45× speedup for resampling and frequency shift computations and enabling processing latencies below 30 ms. Thermal response validation is conducted under two complementary scenarios: localized heating using a water bath and cryogenic-temperature conditions using liquid nitrogen. Under localized heating, the system achieves an accuracy of 0.249 °C with a thermal sensitivity of 5.971 GHz/°C, while cryogenic-temperature validation demonstrates a frequency shift response with a sensitivity of 2.383 GHz/°C and an accuracy of 2.04 °C. The high acceleration of the proposed GPU-accelerated OFDR system and its accuracy are achieved by exploiting CUDA-based stride indexing, enabling efficient parallel segmentation and processing of large datasets without additional memory copies. The benchmarking results confirm the robustness, accuracy, and deployability of the proposed OFDR system across a wide temperature range, establishing it as a practical platform for real-time distributed fiber sensing in structurally dynamic environments.

Harb, Salah [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Reinforcement Learning for Volt-VAR Control in Power Distribution Systems

Volt-VAR control (VVC) is crucial in active distribution networks for optimizing voltage profiles and minimizing network losses. While traditional deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms exhibit promise for VVC, they often require extensive computational resources to handle such a high-dimensional problem. As a potential solution, quantum reinforcement learning (QRL) algorithms integrate the computational capabilities of quantum computing into the DRL framework. However, existing QRL algorithms struggle with complex VVC problems due to the limitations of current quantum hardware. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes an innovative QRL algorithm featuring an end-to-end architecture that integrates a classical autoencoder, variational quantum circuits (VQCs), and classical post-processing layers. This design efficiently compresses high-dimensional grid states, enabling VQCs to leverage quantum advantages while producing multiple control device outputs tailored for VVC tasks. Numerical studies on three representative distribution systems verify the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed QRL algorithm, and demonstrate its enhanced performance over classical approaches with only approximately 1% of the parameters. Additionally, the robustness of our developed algorithm is validated through noisy quantum environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A State-Space Model of an Inverter-Based Microgrid for Multivariable Feedback Control Analysis and Design

In this work, a synchronous model for grid-connected and islanded microgrids is presented. The grid-connected model is based on the premise that the reference frame is synchronized with the AC bus. The quadrature component of the AC bus voltage can be cancelled, which allows to express output power as a linear equation for nominal values in the AC bus amplitude voltage. The model for the islanded microgrid is developed by integrating all the inverter dynamics using a state-space model for the load currents. This model is presented in a comprehensive way such that it could be scalable to any number of inverter-based generators using inductor–capacitor–inductor (LCL) output filters. The use of these models allows designers to assess microgrid stability and robustness using modern control methods such as eigenvalue analysis and singular value diagrams. Both models were tested and validated in an experimental setup to demonstrate their accuracy in describing microgrid dynamics. In addition, three scenarios are presented: non-controlled model, Linear-Quadratic Integrator (LQI) power control, and Power-Voltage (PQ/Vdq) droop–boost controller. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the control strategies and the accuracy of the models to describe microgrid dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗