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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Debris Disks in Aggregate: Using Hubble Space Telescope Coronagraphic Imagery to Understand the Scattered-Light Disk Detection Rate

Despite more than a decade of coronagraphic imaging of debris disk candidate stars, only 16 have been imaged in scattered light. Since imaged disks provide our best insight into processes which sculpt disks, and can provide signposts of the presence of giant planets at distances which would elude radial velocity and transit surveys, we need to understand under what conditions we detect the disks in scattered light, how these disks differ from the majority of debris disks, and how to increase the yield of disks which are imaged with 0.1" angular resolution. In this talk, I will review what we have learned from a shallow HSTINICMOS NIR survey of debris disks, and present first results from our on-going HST /STIS optical imaging of bright scattered-light disks.

Grady, Carol A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2021

Decoding the effects of synonymous variants

Synonymous single nucleotide variants (sSNVs) are common in the human genome but are often overlooked. However, sSNVs can have significant biological impact and may lead to disease. Existing computational methods for evaluating the effect of sSNVs suffer from the lack of gold-standard training/evaluation data and exhibit over-reliance on sequence conservation signals. We developed synVep (synonymous Variant effect predictor), a machine learning-based method that overcomes both of these limitations. Our training data was a combination of variants reported by gnomAD (observed) and those unreported, but possible in the human genome (generated). We used positive-unlabeled learning to purify the generated variant set of any likely unobservable variants. We then trained two sequential extreme gradient boosting models to identify subsets of the remaining variants putatively enriched and depleted in effect. Our method attained 90% precision/recall on a previously unseen set of variants. Furthermore, although synVep does not explicitly use conservation, its scores correlated with evolutionary distances between orthologs in cross-species variation analysis. synVep was also able to differentiate pathogenic vs. benign variants, as well as splice-site disrupting variants (SDV) vs. non-SDVs. Thus, synVep provides an important improvement in annotation of sSNVs, allowing users to focus on variants that most likely harbor effects.

Zishuo Zeng↗
NASA NTRS2012

Direct Imaging of Extra-Solar Planets in Star Forming Regions: Lessons Learned from a False Positive Around IM Lup

Context. Most exoplanet imagers consist of ground-based adaptive optics coronagraphic cameras which are currently limited in contrast, sensitivity and astrometric precision, but advantageously observe in the near-infrared window (1 5 m). Because of these practical limitations, our current observational aim at detecting and characterizing planets puts heavy constraints on target selection, observing strategies, data reduction, and follow-up. Most surveys so far have thus targeted young systems (1 100 Myr) to catch the putative remnant thermal radiation of giant planets, which peaks in the near-infrared. They also favor systems in the solar neighborhood (d less than 80 pc), which eases angular resolution requirements but also ensures a good knowledge of the distance and proper motion, which are critical to secure the planet status, and enable subsequent characterization. Aims. Because of their youth, it is very tempting to target the nearby star forming regions, which are typically twice as far as the bulk of objects usually combed for planets by direct imaging. Probing these interesting reservoirs sets additional constraints that we review in this paper by presenting the planet search that we initiated in 2008 around the disk-bearing T Tauri star IM Lup, which is part of the Lupus star forming region (140-190 pc). Methods. We show and discuss why age determination, the choice of evolutionary model for both the central star and the planet, precise knowledge of the host star proper motion, relative or absolute (between different instruments) astrometric accuracy (including plate scale calibration), and patience are the key ingredients for exoplanet searches around more distant young stars. Results. Unfortunately, most of the time, precision and perseverance are not paying off: we discovered a candidate companion around IM Lup in 2008, which we report here to be an unbound background object. We nevertheless review in details the lessons learned from our endeavor, and additionally present the best detection limits ever calculated for IM Lup. We also accessorily report on the successful use of innovative data reduction techniques, such as the damped-LOCI and iterative roll subtraction.

D Mawet↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Isotope Identification Contextualized by Training and Testing Spectral Similarity

Precise gamma-ray spectral analysis is crucial in high-stakes applications, such as nuclear security. Research efforts toward implementing machine learning (ML) approaches for accurate analysis are limited by the resemblance of the training data to the testing scenarios. The underlying spectral shape of synthetic data may not perfectly reflect measured configurations, and measurement campaigns may be limited by resource constraints. Consequently, ML algorithms for isotope identification must maintain accurate classification performance under domain shifts between the training and testing data. To this end, four different classifiers (Ridge, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron) were trained on the same dataset and evaluated on twelve other datasets with varying standoff distances, shielding, and background configurations. A tailored statistical approach was introduced to quantify the similarity between the training and testing configurations, which was then related to the predictive performance. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests revealed that the OVR-wrapped XGB significantly outperformed the other algorithms, with confidence levels of 99.0% or above for the 133Ba, 60Co, 137Cs, and 152Eu sources. The findings from this work are significant as they outline techniques to promote the development of robust ML-based approaches for isotope identification.

domain adaptation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Integration Concepts: Primary Fuel Cells and Cryogenic Hydrogen Storage

This presentation leverages lessons learned from the multiple activities funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) to convey development paths for implementing an Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) system powered by primary fuel cells systems and fueled by cryogenically stored hydrogen. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with all aspects of hydrogen-fueled aviation, this work minimizes required energy and time per payload distance at take-off so as to reduce emissions associated with ground operations and the production, liquefaction, transfer, and storage of hydrogen. The approach targets efficient system integration, maximizing hydrogen utilization efficiency, maximizing power system efficiency, and viable operational concepts for delivered payload distances. The discussion outlines the performance and compliance challenges revealed by analyses of current fuel cell and cryogenic management technologies. The conclusion offers potential mitigation strategies to the identified the performance and compliance challenges.

Fuel Cell↗
DOE OSTI2024

Jacobian-scaled K-means clustering for physics-informed segmentation of reacting flows

This work introduces Jacobian-scaled K-means (JSK-means) clustering, which is a physicsinformed clustering strategy centered on the K-means framework. The method allows for the injection of underlying physical knowledge into the clustering procedure through a distance function modification: instead of leveraging conventional Euclidean distance vectors, the JSKmeans procedure operates on distance vectors scaled by matrices obtained from dynamical system Jacobians evaluated at the cluster centroids. The goal of this work is to show how the JSKmeans algorithm - without modifying the input dataset - produces clusters that capture regions of dynamical similarity, in that the clusters are redistributed towards high-sensitivity regions in phase space and are described by similarity in the source terms of samples instead of the samples themselves. The algorithm is demonstrated on a complex reacting flow simulation dataset (a channel detonation configuration), where the dynamics in the thermochemical composition space are known through the highly nonlinear and stiff Arrhenius-based chemical source terms. Interpretations of cluster partitions in both physical space and composition space reveal how JSK-means shifts clusters produced by standard K-means towards regions of high chemical sensitivity (e.g., towards regions of peak heat release rate near the detonation reaction zone). Furthermore, the findings presented here illustrate the benefits of utilizing Jacobian-scaled distances in clustering techniques, and the JSK-means method in particular displays promising potential for improving former partition-based modeling strategies in reacting flow (and other multi-physics) applications.

Clustering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Coordination of Electric Vehicles for Grid Services using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Recent research has shown the effectiveness of reinforcement learning (RL) in coordinating electric vehicles (EVs) with vehicle-to-grid capabilities for grid services. However, many of these studies rely on lookup table and deep Q-network techniques, which can be impractical when dealing with continuous states and actions. In addition, existing RL designs inadequately account for battery aging effects, EV user satisfaction, uncertain departure and arrival time, and trip distance, which may compromise effective coordination. This paper aims to bridge these gaps by developing an innovative deep deterministic policy gradient-based RL framework for optimal coordination of EVs. Case studies were carried out using a test system with 100 EVs, and numerical analysis results showed that the proposed RL framework can effectively coordinate EVs to maximize economic benefits and user satisfaction while ensuring the expected battery lifespan.

Das, Avijit↗
DOE OSTI2026

WaveDP

We developed a robust deep learning model designed to effectively reduce background noise and measure signal arrival times from seismic waveforms. This model processes a 57-second, three-component seismogram to predict the probability of Primary (P) and Secondary (S) waves for each timestamp, while also generating a denoised seismogram. Training was conducted using the benchmark STEAD dataset, which includes globally distributed earthquake signals recorded at local distances ranging from 0 to 350 kilometers.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
NASA NTRS2020

Object and Gas Source Detection with Robotic Platforms in Perceptually-Degraded Environments

In exploration-oriented robotic missions for disaster relief in unknown subterranean environments, it is of prime importance for a human supervisor to rapidly gain situational awareness of salient objects within the environment. In this paper we present an automated object detection pipeline that is adaptable to heterogeneous robots with arbitrary sensor configurations. It has been deployed in time-critical scenarios with multiple collaborative robots in a variety of demanding underground environments. For visually observable objects, detections are made in both the visible and thermal spectra using a state-of-the-art machine learning framework for object detection and classification. Our pipeline can be rapidly adapted to a specific task by using a small, structured dataset to fine-tune a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN). Relative localization is separated from the CNN for speed of operation. A robust architecture for localization is used with outlier rejection and a hierarchy of fall-back distance measurement methods. Point-source objects such as gas and WiFi hotspots can also be detected, by tracking signal strength over time and presenting an intuitive visualization on a map. Observations of each object types are presented to the operator in ranked confidence order for final evaluation.

Agha-mohammadi, Ali-akbar↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-Supervised Anomaly Detection via Neural Autoregressive Flows with Active Learning

Many self-supervised methods have been proposed with the target of image anomaly detection. These methods often rely on the paradigm of data augmentation with predefined transformations such as flipping, cropping, and rotations. However, it is not straightforward to apply these techniques for non-image data, such as time series or tabular data, while the performance of the existing deep approaches has been under our expectation on tasks beyond images. In this work, we propose a novel active learning (AL) scheme that relied on neural autoregressive flows (NAF) for self-supervised anomaly detection, specifically on small-scale data. Unlike other generative models such as GANs or VAEs, flow-based models allow to explicitly learn the probability density and thus can assign accurate likelihoods to normal data which makes it usable to detect anomalies. The proposed NAF-AL method is achieved by efficiently generating random samples from latent space and transforming them into feature space along with likelihoods via invertible mapping. The samples with lower likelihoods are selected and further checked by outlier detection using Mahalanobis distance. The augmented samples incorporating with normal samples are used for training a better detector so as to approach decision boundaries. Compared with random transformations, NAF-AL can be interpreted as a likelihood-oriented data augmentation that is more efficient and robust. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms existing baselines on multiple time series and tabular datasets, and a real-world application in advanced manufacturing, with significant improvement on anomaly detection accuracy and robustness over the state-of-the-art.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Variability in Performance of a Machine Learning Seismicity Catalog: Central Italy, 2016–2017

Machine learning (ML) catalogs contain many more earthquakes than routine catalogs, but their performance in phase picking and earthquake detection has not been fully evaluated. We develop station‐level detection probabilities using logistic regression and combine them across a seismic network to compute spatial magnitude‐of‐completeness fields. We apply this approach to two catalogs from the 2016–2017 Central Italy sequence that were constructed from the same seismic network, one routine and one ML‐based. At the station level, the ML picker increases detection sensitivity by identifying smaller magnitude events and detecting earthquakes at greater distances. Spatially, the magnitude of completeness decreases substantially, with median values shifting from 1.6 to 0.5 for P waves and from 1.7 to 0.5 for S waves. However, the ML catalog also shows greater variability in station‐level performance than the routine catalog. These results demonstrate that ML‐based improvements in detectability are widespread but spatially nonuniform, highlighting their benefits, their limitations, and the potential for further improvements.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed neural network with transfer learning (TL-PINN) based on domain similarity measure for prediction of nuclear reactor transients

Nuclear reactor safety and efficiency can be enhanced through the development of accurate and fast methods for prediction of reactor transient (RT) states. Physics informed neural networks (PINNs) leverage deep learning methods to provide an alternative approach to RT modeling. Applications of PINNs in monitoring of RTs for operator support requires near real-time model performance. However, as with all machine learning models, development of a PINN involves time-consuming model training. Here, we show that a transfer learning (TL-PINN) approach achieves significant performance gain, as measured by reduction of the number of iterations for model training. Using point kinetic equations (PKEs) model with six neutron precursor groups, constructed with experimental parameters of the Purdue University Reactor One (PUR-1) research reactor, we generated different RTs with experimentally relevant range of variables. The RTs were characterized using Hausdorff and Fréchet distance. We have demonstrated that pre-training TL-PINN on one RT results in up to two orders of magnitude acceleration in prediction of a different RT. The mean error for conventional PINN and TL-PINN models prediction of neutron densities is smaller than 1%. We have developed a correlation between TL-PINN performance acceleration and similarity measure of RTs, which can be used as a guide for application of TL-PINNs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multimodel validation of single wakes in neutral and stratified atmospheric conditions

Previous research has revealed the need for a validation study that considers several wake quantities and code types so that decisions on the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost can be well informed and appropriate to the intended application. In addition to guiding code choice and setup, rigorous model validation exercises are needed to identify weaknesses and strengths of specific models and guide future improvements. Here, we consider 13 approaches to simulating wakes observed with a nacelle-mounted lidar at the Scaled Wind Technology Facility (SWiFT) under varying atmospheric conditions. We find that some of the main challenges in wind turbine wake modeling are related to simulating the inflow. In the neutral benchmark, model performance tracked as expected with model fidelity, with large-eddy simulations performing the best. In the more challenging stable case, steady-state Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations were found to outperform other model alternatives because they provide the ability to more easily prescribe noncanonical inflows and their low cost allows for simulations to be repeated as needed. Dynamic measurements were only available for the unstable benchmark at a single downstream distance. These dynamic analyses revealed that differences in the performance of time-stepping models come largely from differences in wake meandering. This highlights the need for more validation exercises that take into account wake dynamics and are able to identify where these differences come from: mesh setup, inflow, turbulence models, or wake-meandering parameterizations. In addition to model validation findings, we summarize lessons learned and provide recommendations for future benchmark exercises.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Star cluster classification using deep transfer learning with PHANGS- HST

Currently available star cluster catalogues from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging of nearby galaxies heavily rely on visual inspection and classification of candidate clusters. Here, the time-consuming nature of this process has limited the production of reliable catalogues and thus also post-observation analysis. To address this problem, deep transfer learning has recently been used to create neural network models that accurately classify star cluster morphologies at production scale for nearby spiral galaxies (D ≲ 20 Mpc). Here, we use HST ultraviolet (UV)–optical imaging of over 20 000 sources in 23 galaxies from the Physics at High Angular resolution in Nearby GalaxieS (PHANGS) survey to train and evaluate two new sets of models: (i) distance-dependent models, based on cluster candidates binned by galaxy distance (9–12, 14–18, and 18–24 Mpc), and (ii) distance-independent models, based on the combined sample of candidates from all galaxies. We find that the overall accuracy of both sets of models is comparable to previous automated star cluster classification studies (~60–80 per cent) and shows improvement by a factor of 2 in classifying asymmetric and multipeaked clusters from PHANGS-HST. Somewhat surprisingly, while we observe a weak negative correlation between model accuracy and galactic distance, we find that training separate models for the three distance bins does not significantly improve classification accuracy. We also evaluate model accuracy as a function of cluster properties such as brightness, colour, and spectral energy distribution (SED)-fit age. Based on the success of these experiments, our models will provide classifications for the full set of PHANGS-HST candidate clusters (N ~ 200 000) for public release.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) Version 2: New Activities and Future Plans

A remote sensing-based system has been developed to characterize the potential for rainfall-triggered landslides across the globe in near real-time. The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model uses a decision tree framework to combine a static susceptibility map derived from information on slope, rock characteristics, forest loss, distance to fault zones and distance to road networks with satellite precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Since 2016, the LHASA model has been providing near real-time and retrospective estimates of potential landslide activity. Results of this work are available at https://landslides.nasa.gov. In order to advance LHASA’s capabilities to characterize landslide hazards and impacts dynamically, we have implemented a new approach that leverages machine learning, new parameters, and new inventories. LHASA 2.0 uses the XGBoost machine learning model to bring in dynamic variables as well as additional static variables to better represent landslide hazard globally. Global rainfall forecasts are also being evaluated to provide a 1-3 day forecast of potential landslide activity. Additional factors such as recent seismicity and burned areas are also being considered to represent the preconditioning or changing interactions with subsequent rainfall over affected areas. A series of parameters are being tested within this structure using NASA’s Global Landslide Catalog as well as many other event-based and multi-temporal inventories mapped by the project team or provided by project partners. In addition to estimates of landslide hazard, LHASA Version 2 will incorporate dynamic estimates of exposure including population, roads and infrastructure to highlight the potential impacts that rainfall-triggered landslides. The ultimate goal of LHASA Version 2.0 is to approximate the relative probabilities of landslide hazard and exposure across different space and time scales to inform hazard assessment retrospectively over the past 20 years, in near real-time, and in the future. In addition to the hazard. This presentation will outline the new activities for LHASA Version 2.0 and present some next steps for this system.

Dalia Kirschbaum↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of the Effect of Framework Flexibility on Adsorption in SIFSIX-3-Cu using a Machine-Learned Force Field

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a promising class of adsorbents. The performance of MOF sorbents relies on high selectivity and low regeneration energy. This work focuses on the use of machine learned force fields (MLFFs) to model adsorption in a flexible MOF, SIFSIX-3-Cu. A DeePMD-based MLFF was trained to reproduce DFT (PBE+D3) energies, forces, and stresses, using an iterative sampling scheme combining sampling based on molecular dynamics, Monte Carlo, and geometry optimization to capture both attractive and repulsive regions of the potential energy surface. Flexibility of the MOF was explicitly included in this model. Hybrid Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics (MC/MD) simulations using the MLFF predicted adsorption isotherms in good agreement with experimental data for a range of pressures (40 Pa – 104 Pa) in contrast to rigid models, which overpredict CO2 adsorption at low pressures. The improvement was the result of a description of the variability of fluorine-fluorine diagonal distances at adsorption sites. This detailed description of flexibility afforded by the MLFF resulted in more accurate predictions adsorption isotherms when compared to the experimentally measured values. These results underscore the importance of including framework flexibility when modeling adsorption phenomena in MOFs, particularly for low pressure applications and provide a robust procedure for training MLFF models for MOFs.

Atomistic Simulation↗