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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RNA Splicing Events in Circulation Distinguish Individuals With and Without New-onset Type 1 Diabetes

Context: Alterations in RNA splicing may influence protein isoform diversity that contributes to or reflects the pathophysiology of certain diseases. Whereas specific RNA splicing events in pancreatic islets have been investigated in models of inflammation in vitro, how RNA splicing in the circulation correlates with or is reflective of type 1 diabetes (T1D) disease pathophysiology in humans remains unexplored. Objective: To use machine learning to investigate if alternative RNA splicing events differ between individuals with and without new-onset T1D and to determine if these splicing events provide insight into T1D pathophysiology. Methods: RNA deep sequencing was performed on whole blood samples from 2 independent cohorts: a training cohort consisting of 12 individuals with new-onset T1D and 12 age- and sex-matched nondiabetic controls and a validation cohort of the same size and demographics. Machine learning analysis was used to identify specific isoforms that could distinguish individuals with T1D from controls. Results: Distinct patterns of RNA splicing differentiated participants with T1D from unaffected controls. Notably, certain splicing events, particularly involving retained introns, showed significant association with T1D. Machine learning analysis using these splicing events as features from the training cohort demonstrated high accuracy in distinguishing between T1D subjects and controls in the validation cohort. Gene Ontology pathway enrichment analysis of the retained intron category showed evidence for a systemic viral response in T1D subjects. Conclusion: Alternative RNA splicing events in whole blood are significantly enriched in individuals with new-onset T1D and can effectively distinguish these individuals from unaffected controls. Further, our findings also suggest that RNA splicing profiles offer the potential to provide insights into disease pathogenesis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

With a dataset of testing and case counts from over 1,400 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States, we analyze the number of infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in the counties surrounding these IHEs during the Fall 2020 semester (August to December, 2020). We find that counties with IHEs that remained primarily online experienced fewer cases and deaths during the Fall 2020 semester; whereas before and after the semester, these two groups had almost identical COVID-19 incidence. Additionally, we see fewer cases and deaths in counties with IHEs that reported conducting any on-campus testing compared to those that reported none. To perform these two comparisons, we used a matching procedure designed to create well-balanced groups of counties that are aligned as much as possible along age, race, income, population, and urban/rural categories—demographic variables that have been shown to be correlated with COVID-19 outcomes. We conclude with a case study of IHEs in Massachusetts—a state with especially high detail in our dataset—which further highlights the importance of IHE-affiliated testing for the broader community. The results in this work suggest that campus testing can itself be thought of as a mitigation policy and that allocating additional resources to IHEs to support efforts to regularly test students and staff would be beneficial to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in a pre-vaccine environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling hepatitis C micro-elimination among people who inject drugs with direct-acting antivirals in metropolitan Chicago

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and mortality worldwide. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy leads to high cure rates. However, persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at risk for reinfection after cure and may require multiple DAA treatments to reach the World Health Organization’s (WHO) goal of HCV elimination by 2030. Using an agent-based model (ABM) that accounts for the complex interplay of demographic factors, risk behaviors, social networks, and geographic location for HCV transmission among PWID, we examined the combination(s) of DAA enrollment (2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%), adherence (60%, 70%, 80%, 90%) and frequency of DAA treatment courses needed to achieve the WHO’s goal of reducing incident chronic infections by 90% by 2030 among a large population of PWID from Chicago, IL and surrounding suburbs. We also estimated the economic DAA costs associated with each scenario. Our results indicate that a DAA treatment rate of >7.5% per year with 90% adherence results in 75% of enrolled PWID requiring only a single DAA course; however 19% would require 2 courses, 5%, 3 courses and <2%, 4 courses, with an overall DAA cost of $325 million to achieve the WHO goal in metropolitan Chicago. We estimate a 28% increase in the overall DAA cost under low adherence (70%) compared to high adherence (90%). Our modeling results have important public health implications for HCV elimination among U.S. PWID. Using a range of feasible treatment enrollment and adherence rates, we report robust findings supporting the need to address re-exposure and reinfection among PWID to reduce HCV incidence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Two (or more) for one: Identifying classes of household energy- and water-saving measures to understand the potential for positive spillover

A key component of behavior-based energy conservation programs is the identification of target behaviors. A common approach is to target behaviors with the greatest energy-saving potential. The concept of behavioral spillover introduces further considerations, namely that adoption of one energy-saving behavior may increase (or decrease) the likelihood of other energy-saving behaviors. This research aimed to identify and describe household energy- and water-saving measure classes within which positive spillover is likely to occur (e.g., adoption of energy-efficient appliances may correlate with adoption of water-efficient appliances), and explore demographic and psychographic predictors of each. Nearly 1,000 households in a California city were surveyed and asked to report whether they had adopted 75 different energy- and/or water-saving measures. Principal Component Analysis and Network Analysis based on correlations between adoption of these diverse measures revealed and characterized eight water-energy-saving measure classes: Water Conservation, Energy Conservation, Maintenance and Management, Efficient Appliance, Advanced Efficiency, Efficient Irrigation, Green Gardening, and Green Landscaping. Understanding these measure classes can help guide behavior-based energy program developers in selecting target behaviors and designing interventions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application

Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.

Gomes, Dylan G. E. (ORCID:0000000226423728)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

WholeTraveler Anonymized Data Phase 1

Phase 1 of the WholeTraveler Study data collection consisted of an online-only survey. This survey captured data on three categories of observable variation in the population relevant to transportation decisions. First, the survey collected traditional demographic data such as age, gender, income, and education level. Second, it collected data across personality, psychological, and preference categories. This included: 1. The "Big Five" inventory personality traits: openness to new experience, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism; 2. Risk and time preferences; and 3. Environmental preferences. Third, the survey collected data on historical behavior patterns including: 1. Adoption of (as well as interest in) new technologies or innovations (e.g., smartphones, PEVs, solar panels, adaptive cruise control [ACC]); 2. Car ownership history and current car ownership status; 3. Recent mode use across different time scales (e.g., previous week, previous month, previous year); and 4. Timing of major life events such as starting a family as well as overall lifecycle trajectory patterns. Data from Phase 1 and Phase 2 are linked by a unique respondent identifier. Anonymized versions of the Phase 1 and Phase 2 data are both available on Livewire.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey

The 2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) was administered by the California Department of Transportation, which collected demographic and travel behavior characteristics for residents across the entire state. At the time, it was the largest such regional or statewide survey ever conducted in the United States. Detailed travel behavior information was obtained from more than 42,500 households via multiple data-collection methods, including computer-assisted telephone interviewing, online and mail surveys, wearable (7,574 participants) and in-vehicle (2,910 vehicles) global positioning system devices, and on-board diagnostic sensors that gathered data directly from a vehicle's engine. Details of personal travel behavior were gathered within the region of residence, inter-regionally within the state, and in adjoining states and Mexico. The survey sampling plan was designed to ensure an accurate representation of the entire population of the state. The CHTS included additional features, such as vehicle-acquisition decisions, parking choices, work schedules and flexibility, use of toll lanes/priced facilities, and walk and bicycle trips, to support advanced model development.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2015-2017 California Vehicle Survey

The 2015-2017 California Vehicle Survey of residential and commercial light-duty vehicle owners in California assessed consumer preferences for vehicles and included a targeted sample of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) owners. Resource Systems Group conducted the survey on behalf of the California Energy Commission. In addition to economic and demographic data, the survey integrated light-duty vehicle holding and use information with vehicle choice data collected via the stated preferences survey's set of eight vehicle and fuel type choice exercises. The PEV owner survey participants provided additional data on charging behavior, electricity rates, and their main motivations for purchasing PEVs.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2013 California Vehicle Survey

The 2013 California Vehicle Survey (CVS) collected data on household and commercial vehicle usage, and on future vehicle purchases. ICF International conducted the survey on behalf of the California Energy Commission. Approximately 8,000 respondents, from California households and businesses, completed the survey. The household component of the CVS included a selection of households from the 2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS), who had stated their intention to purchase a vehicle in the near future. Both household surveys used the same survey ID numbers enabling the integration of responses. The commercial vehicle component of the CVS—a stand-alone survey of commercial fleet owners in California—asked vehicle owners questions pertaining to economic and demographic attributes, current fleets, and preferences about planned vehicle purchases.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2007 Chicago Regional Household Travel Inventory

To provide data for developing and refining travel demand forecast models, the 2007 Regional Household Travel Inventory studied the demographic and travel behavior characteristics of residents in the greater Chicago area. It included households in eight counties in Illinois and three in Indiana. The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning conducted the study in coordination with the Illinois Department of Transportation, the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission, and the Indiana Department of Transportation. Travel and activity information for all household members (regardless of age) was collected during a randomly assigned 24- or 48-hour period. It relied on the willingness of households to provide detailed information about their members and vehicles, and to record all travel and associated activity during the collection period. This study also featured a subsample of households collecting data via in-vehicle and wearable global positioning system devices.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2004 Kansas City Regional Household Travel Survey

The 2004 Regional Household Travel Survey documented the travel behavior characteristics of Kansas City residents to update the area's transportation model. The Mid-America Regional Council and the Kansas and Missouri Departments of Transportation sponsored the survey, which was administered by NuStats. Activity and travel information was collected for all household members, regardless of age, during a specific 24-hour period. It relied on the willingness of households to provide demographic information about its members and vehicles and to have all household members record all travel and activity for a specific 24-hour period. The study also included a subsample of household vehicles with global positioning system (GPS) devices. The objectives of the GPS component were twofold: (1) to provide an independent data stream of vehicular travel in order to measure the accuracy of the travel data reported over the telephone, and (2) to obtain details about those trips that were captured by GPS but not reported over the telephone, in order to derive a trip-correction factor.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2014 Madison County, Indiana, Heartland in Motion Transportation Study

The 2014 Heartland in Motion Transportation Study collected household demographics and travel information from Madison County, Indiana, residents and evaluated preferred travel options between the county and Indianapolis, Indiana. Resource Systems Group administered the study for the Madison County Council of Governments. Prior to conducting the main survey in February to March 2014, a pilot study was conducted in December 2013 to evaluate the methods, approach, and response rates. The main study data collection occurred while public schools were in session, prior to spring break, and included a household travel survey and stated preference experiments. Households were asked to provide details of their trips for one weekday.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2009 National Household Travel Survey - California Add-On

The California add-on survey supplements the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. The NHTS was conducted by the Federal Highway Administration, which collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households, as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. The California Department of Transportation participated in the NHTS add-on program and received a total of 21,225 household samples in California, from March 2008 through May 2009.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2017 National Household Travel Survey - California Add-On

The California add-on survey supplements the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with additional household samples and detailed travel behavior for an assigned travel day. The NHTS was conducted by the Federal Highway Administration, which collected data on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of households, as well as detailed information on travel behavior nationwide. State transportation departments and metropolitan planning agencies had the opportunity to purchase extra household samples as part of the NHTS add-on program. These additional samples, along with national samples collected in the add-on areas, are compiled for use in transportation planning, forecasting, and research. The California Department of Transportation participated in the NHTS add-on program and received a total of 26,095 household samples in California, from April 2016 through April 2017.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2013 New Mexico Mid-Region Travel Survey

The 2013 New Mexico Mid-Region Travel Survey assessed travel behavior patterns to update a travel demand model for the Albuquerque Metropolitan Planning Area, which consists of Bernalillo County, Valencia County, and southern Sandoval County. It includes the cities of Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, Los Lunas, and Belen as well as some tribal lands. The Mid-Region Council of Governments contracted with Westat to conduct the survey, which included the collection of socio-demographic data and a one-day (24-hour) period of household travel behavior collected during weekdays (Monday through Friday). The survey also included a random selection of a 20% subsample of households (1,023 participants) to take part in a wearable global positioning system, technology-based component of the study, which was used to assess the level of trip under-reporting from the self-reported component of the survey.

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