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At least 397 records · Page 22

Circumstellar shells resolved in IRAS survey data. II - Analysis

IRAS survey data for 512 red giant stars and young planetary nebulae were processed using a computer program which fitted the data to an idealized model of a circumstellar shell. Seventy-six of these stars were found to have circumstellar shells resolved in the 60-micron survey data. Forty pct of the 76 stars are carbon stars. Thirteen are Mira variables. The evolution of these shells, involving the interaction of the expelled material with the ISM, is modeled, and the results suggest that the period during which Mira variables lose mass lasts for approximately 10 exp 5 yr. Carbon stars are found to shed mass for about 2 x 10 exp 5 yr. The expansion velocity of the outer shell for the largest shells will normally be lower by a factor of 3-5 than the expansion velocity obtained from CO observations.

Young, K.↗

Chromospherically active stars. X - Spectroscopy and photometry of HD 212280

The system HD 212280 is a chromospherically active double lined spectroscopic binary with an orbital period of 45.284 days and an eccentricity of 0.50. The spectrum is composite with spectral types of G8 IV and F5-8 V for the components. An estimated inclination of 78 +/- 8 deg results in masses of 1.7 and 1.4 solar mass for the G subgiant and mid-F star, respectively. The distance to the system is estimated to be 112 pc. Photometric observations obtained between 1987 November and 1992 June reveal that HD 212280 is a newly identified variable star with a V amplitude of about 0.15 mag and a mean period of 29.46 days. Our V data were divided into 11 sets and in all but one case two spots were required to fit the data. Lifetimes of 650 days and a minimum of 1350 days have been determined for two of the four spots. The differential rotation coefficient of 0.05 is relatively small. The age of the system is about 1.9 X 10 exp 9 yrs. The G subgiant is rotating slower than pseudosynchronously while the F-type star is rotating faster.

Fekel, Francis C.↗

Fitting a three-component scattering model to polarimetric SAR data

A new technique for fitting a three-component scattering mechanism model to the polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data itself, without utilizing any ground truth measurements, is presented. The three scattering mechanism components included in the model are volume scatter from randomly oriented dipoles, first-order Bragg surface scatter and a dihedral scattering mechanism for two surfaces with different dielectric constants. The model fit yields an estimate of the contribution to the total backscatter of each of the three components. The backscatter contributions can also be compared to give the relative percentage weight of each. The model fit has an equal number of input parameters (the polarimetric radar backscatter measurements) and output parameters (the backscatter parameters describing them). The model can be applied to entire images or to small areas within an image to give a first-order estimate of the relevant scattering mechanisms. The model was applied to many C-, L- and P-band Airborne SAR (AIRSAR) images of different types of terrain. Results were presented at the workshop.

Freeman, A.↗

Interface diagnostics platform for thin-film solid-state batteries

Understanding the impedances of battery materials and their interfaces remains a major challenge, usually addressed by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) where frequency-dependent complex impedance of full battery cells is measured and then modeled by a network of connected electrical elements. As conventionally applied, this approach produces ambiguity in that (1) multiple different network configurations may fit the data convincingly and (2) the method offers no direct association of the electrical elements with physical features of the battery. Here we present a new methodology that resolves both sources of ambiguity, enabled by expanding the experimental scope to directly inform the configuration of elements and their parameters in the network model. We demonstrate this methodology using thin film fabrication of solid state battery devices patterned by shadow masked sputter deposition, so that diagnostic devices corresponding to individual interface and material components can be fabricated simultaneously with full cell batteries. EIS models for the diagnostic devices can then be connected to form full cell networks whose topology matches the well-known physical configuration of the battery. When connected in this way, the full network model – made from connecting the diagnostic device EIS models – fits the full cell EIS data. For the case of a thin film solid state battery composed of amorphous silicon anode, lithium phosphorus oxynitride (LiPON) solid electrolyte, and lithium vanadium oxide (Li x V 2 O 5 ) cathode, we show that the approach allows us to identify ionic impedance/conductivity of the cathode/electrolyte as a limiting impedance and the anode/electrolyte interface cycling instability as a primary degradation factor.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

SymbolFit: Automatic Parametric Modeling with Symbolic Regression

We introduce SymbolFit (API: https://github.com/hftsoi/symbolfit), a framework that automates parametric modeling by using symbolic regression to perform a machine-search for functions that fit the data while simultaneously providing uncertainty estimates in a single run. Traditionally, constructing a parametric model to accurately describe binned data has been a manual and iterative process, requiring an adequate functional form to be determined before the fit can be performed. The main challenge arises when the appropriate functional forms cannot be derived from first principles, especially when there is no underlying true closed-form function for the distribution. In this work, we develop a framework that automates and streamlines the process by utilizing symbolic regression, a machine learning technique that explores a vast space of candidate functions without requiring a predefined functional form because the functional form itself is treated as a trainable parameter, making the process far more efficient and effortless than traditional regression methods. We demonstrate the framework in high-energy physics experiments at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) using five real proton-proton collision datasets from new physics searches, including background modeling in resonance searches for high-mass dijet, trijet, paired-dijet, diphoton, and dimuon events. We show that our framework can flexibly and efficiently generate a wide range of candidate functions that fit a nontrivial distribution well using a simple fit configuration that varies only by random seed, and that the same fit configuration, which defines a vast function space, can also be applied to distributions of different shapes, whereas achieving a comparable result with traditional methods would have required extensive manual effort.

Tsoi, Ho Fung [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia↗

Measurements of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow with seven years of IceCube data: Comparison with the Solar cycle and magnetic field models

Observations of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow have been proven as a valuable diagnostic for the assessment of solar magnetic field models. Here, seven years of IceCube data are compared to solar activity and solar magnetic field models. A quantitative comparison of solar magnetic field models with IceCube data on the event rate level is performed for the first time. Additionally, a first energy-dependent analysis is presented and compared to recent predictions. We use seven years of IceCube data for the moon and the Sun and compare them to simulations on data rate level. The simulations are performed for the geometrical shadow hypothesis for the moon and the Sun and for a cosmic-ray propagation model governed by the solar magnetic field for the case of the Sun. We find that a linearly decreasing relationship between Sun shadow strength and solar activity is preferred over a constant relationship at the 6.4σ level. We test two commonly used models of the coronal magnetic field, both combined with a Parker spiral, by modeling cosmic-ray propagation in the solar magnetic field. Both models predict a weakening of the shadow in times of high solar activity as it is also visible in the data. We find tensions with the data on the order of 3σ for both models, assuming only statistical uncertainties. The magnetic field model CSSS fits the data slightly better than the PFSS model. This is generally consistent with what is found previously by the Tibet AS-γ Experiment; a deviation of the data from the two models is, however, not significant at this point. Regarding the energy dependence of the Sun shadow, we find indications that the shadowing effect increases with energy during times of high solar activity, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Determination of sounding rocket position and attitude from radar and magnetometer data

The techniques are described that were used to determine the trajectories and orientations of three sounding rockets instrumented to study the aurora. The radar plot board data were fitted to a near earth expansion of the force of gravity to determine the trajectory. Only onboard magnetometer data were used to determine the attitude of the payload with respect to the earth's magnetic field. Computer programs in the FORTRAN language are available which generate the trajectory and attitude parameters.

Pongratz, M.↗

Local area analysis of high-degree solar oscillations: New ring fitting procedures

The local area analysis of five-minute solar oscillations using ring diagrams to determine subphotospheric velocity flows is a tool for convection zone dynamics. In relation to the problem of the large computational task of fitting the rings, a faster method is presented that carries out the ring fitting using data obtained with a high l helioseismometer. Noise sources are eliminated, and a perturbation approach is used to fit the azimuthally averaged spectrum. The parameters determined in this way are held constant while the ring diagram is fitted. The results obtained are presented and discussed.

Haber, Deborah A.↗

Application of a Bayesian Framework for Plasticity Model Selection

Interpretable Machine Learning (IML) has performed well when tasked with deriving constitutive material models. However, IML has been shown to prefer models that overfit noise in data, which tends to lead to bloat and a decrease in interpretability. Due to these issues, the ability of IML to reliably derive models that fit the data and are both interpretable and generalizable is limited. A method developed recently has shown promise to improve upon traditional IML by using a Bayesian fitness definition for the evolution of free-form models with non-deterministic parameters. This framework was developed for genetic-programming-based symbolic regression(GPSR) and involves model parameter estimation using Sequential Monte Carlo sampling (SMC).The method has demonstrated a reduction in bloat when dealing with noisy data in comparison to conventional GPSR. The results of this framework applied to stress-strain data for copper show models that more effectively predict the experimental data better than was previously shown with GPSR.

plasticity↗

A model of Saturn's magnetic field based on all available data

A model of Saturn's magnetic field, called Saturn Pioneer Voyager (SPV), is developed on the basis of an analysis of three sets of data: those from the Pioneer 11, the Voyager 1, and the Voyager 2 magnetometers. It is shown that the SPV model fits the data observed between 1.3 and 8.0 Saturn radii from the planet's center with a 1.13 percent weighted rms average of the percent differences between the observed and modeled fields, which is substantially better than the fits yielded by any of the previous models.

Davis, Leverett, Jr.↗

Properties of Martian Hematite at Meridiani Planum by Simultaneous Fitting of Mars Mossbauer Spectra

Mossbauer spectrometers [1] on the two Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs) have been making measurements of surface rocks and soils since January 2004, recording spectra in 10-K-wide temperature bins ranging from 180 K to 290 K. Initial analyses focused on modeling individual spectra directly as acquired or, to increase statistical quality, as sums of single-rock or soil spectra over temperature or as sums over similar rock or soil type [2, 3]. Recently, we have begun to apply simultaneous fitting procedures [4] to Mars Mossbauer data [5-7]. During simultaneous fitting (simfitting), many spectra are modeled similarly and fit together to a single convergence criterion. A satisfactory simfit with parameter values consistent among all spectra is more likely than many single-spectrum fits of the same data because fitting parameters are shared among multiple spectra in the simfit. Consequently, the number of variable parameters, as well as the correlations among them, is greatly reduced. Here we focus on applications of simfitting to interpret the hematite signature in Moessbauer spectra acquired at Meridiani Planum, results of which were reported in [7]. The Spectra. We simfit two sets of spectra with large hematite content [7]: 1) 60 rock outcrop spectra from Eagle Crater; and 2) 46 spectra of spherule-rich lag deposits (Table 1). Spectra of 10 different targets acquired at several distinct temperatures are included in each simfit set. In the table, each Sol (martian day) represents a different target, NS is the number of spectra for a given sol, and NT is the number of spectra for a given temperature. The spectra are indexed to facilitate definition of parameter relations and constraints. An example spectrum is shown in Figure 1, together with a typical fitting model. Results. We have shown that simultaneous fitting is effective in analyzing a large set of related MER Mossbauer spectra. By using appropriate constraints, we derive target-specific quantities and the temperature dependence of certain parameters. By examining different fitting models, we demonstrate an improved fit for martian hematite modeled with two sextets rather than as a single sextet, and show that outcrop and spherule hematite are distinct. For outcrop, the weaker sextet indicates a Morin transition typical of well-crystallized and chemically pure hematite, while most of the outcrop hematite remains in a weakly ferromagnetic state at all temperatures. For spherule spectra, both sextets are consistent with weakly ferromagnetic hematite with no Morin transition. For both hematites, there is evidence for a range of particle sizes.

Agresti, D. G.↗

Effective Tree Scattering at L-Band

For routine microwave Soil Moisture (SM) retrieval through vegetation, the tau-omega [1] model [zero-order Radiative Transfer (RT) solution] is attractive due to its simplicity and eases of inversion and implementation. It is the model used in baseline retrieval algorithms for several planned microwave space missions, such as ESA's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission (launched November 2009) and NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission (to be launched 2014/2015) [2 and 3]. These approaches are adapted for vegetated landscapes with effective vegetation parameters tau and omega by fitting experimental data or simulation outputs of a multiple scattering model [4-7]. The model has been validated over grasslands, agricultural crops, and generally light to moderate vegetation. As the density of vegetation increases, sensitivity to the underlying SM begins to degrade significantly and errors in the retrieved SM increase accordingly. The zero-order model also loses its validity when dense vegetation (i.e. forest, mature corn, etc.) includes scatterers, such as branches and trunks (or stalks in the case of corn), which are large with respect to the wavelength. The tau-omega model (when applied over moderately to densely vegetated landscapes) will need modification (in terms of form or effective parameterization) to enable accurate characterization of vegetation parameters with respect to specific tree types, anisotropic canopy structure, presence of leaves and/or understory. More scattering terms (at least up to first-order at L-band) should be included in the RT solutions for forest canopies [8]. Although not really suitable to forests, a zero-order tau-omega model might be applied to such vegetation canopies with large scatterers, but that equivalent or effective parameters would have to be used [4]. This requires that the effective values (vegetation opacity and single scattering albedo) need to be evaluated (compared) with theoretical definitions of these parameters. In a recent study [9], effective vegetation opacity of coniferous trees was compared with two independent estimates of the same parameter. First, a zero-order RT model was fitted to multiangular microwave emissivity data in a least-square sense to provide effective vegetation optical depth as done in spaceborne retrieval algorithms. Second, a ratio between radar backscatter measurements with a corner reflector under trees and in an open area was calculated to obtain measured tree propagation characteristics. Finally, the theoretical propagation constant was determined by forward scattering theorem using detailed measurements of size/angle distributions and dielectric constants of the tree constituents (trunk, branches, and needles). Results indicated that the effective attenuation values are smaller than but of similar magnitude to both the theoretical and measured values. This study will complement the previous work [9] and will focus on characterization of effective scattering albedo by assuming that effective vegetation opacity is same as theoretical opacity. The resultant effective albedo will not be the albedo of single forest canopy element anymore, but it becomes a global parameter, which depends on all the processes taking place within the canopy including multiple scattering as described.

Kurum, Mehmet↗

Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference

Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Kinetics of the reaction of nitric oxide with hydrogen

The reaction of nitric oxide with hydrogen has been studied in the temperature range 2400-4500 K using a shock-tube technique. Mixtures of NO and H2 diluted in argon or krypton were heated by incident shock waves, and the infrared emission from the fundamental vibration-rotation band of NO at 5.3 microns was used to monitor the time-varying NO concentration. The decomposition of nitric oxide behind the shock was found to be modeled well by a fifteen-reaction system. A principal result of the study was the determination of the rate constant k1 for the reaction H + NO yields N + OH, which may be the rate-limiting step for NO removal in some combustion systems. Experimental values of k1 were obtained for each test through comparisons of measured and numerically predicted NO profiles. The data are fit closely by the expression k1 = 1.34 times 10 to the fourteenth power exp(-49 200/RT) cu cm/mole-sec. These data appear to be the first available for this rate constant.

Flower, W. L.↗

A simulation of air pollution model parameter estimation using data from a ground-based LIDAR remote sensor

One way to obtain estimates of the unknown parameters in a pollution dispersion model is to compare the model predictions with remotely sensed air quality data. A ground-based LIDAR sensor provides relative pollution concentration measurements as a function of space and time. The measured sensor data are compared with the dispersion model output through a numerical estimation procedure to yield parameter estimates which best fit the data. This overall process is tested in a computer simulation to study the effects of various measurement strategies. Such a simulation is useful prior to a field measurement exercise to maximize the information content in the collected data. Parametric studies of simulated data matched to a Gaussian plume dispersion model indicate the trade offs available between estimation accuracy and data acquisition strategy.

Kibler, J. F.↗

Present-day plate motions

A data set comprising 110 spreading rates, 78 transform fault azimuths and 142 earthquake slip vectors was inverted to yield a new instantaneous plate motion model, designated RM2. The mean averaging interval for the relative motion data was reduced to less than 3 My. A detailed comparison of RM2 with angular velocity vectors which best fit the data along individual plate boundaries indicates that RM2 performs close to optimally in most regions, with several notable exceptions. On the other hand, a previous estimate (RM1) failed to satisfy an extensive set of new data collected in the South Atlantic Ocean. It is shown that RM1 incorrectly predicts the plate kinematics in the South Atlantic because the presently available data are inconsistent with the plate geometry assumed in deriving RM1. It is demonstrated that this inconsistency can be remedied by postulating the existence of internal deformation with the Indian plate, although alternate explanations are possible.

Minster, J. B.↗

Extension of the MSIS thermosphere model into the middle and lower atmosphere

The MSIS-86 empirical model has been revised in the lower thermosphere and extended into the mesosphere and lower atmosphere to provide a single analytic model for calculating temperature and density profiles representative of the climatological average for various geophysical conditions. Tabulations from the Handbook for MAP 16 (Barnett and Corney, 1985) are the primary guide for the lower atmosphere and are supplemented by historical rocket and incoherent scatter data in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Low-order spherical harmonics and Fourier series are used to describe the major variations throughout the atmosphere including latitude, annual, semiannual, and simplified local time and longitude variations. While month to month details cannot be completely represented, lower atmosphere temperature data are fit to an overall standard deviation of 3 K and pressure to 2 percent. Comparison with rocket and other data indicates that the model represents current knowledge of the climatological average reasonably well, although there is some conflict as to details near the mesopause.

Hedin, A. E.↗

Safety Aboard the International Space Station

As with any task that NASA takes on, safety is of utmost importaqce. There are pages of safety codes and procedures that must be followed before any idea can be brought to life. Unfortunately, the International Space Station s (ISS) safety regulations and procedures are based on lg standards rather than on Og. To aide in making this space age home away from home a less hazardous environment, I worked on several projects revolving around the dangers of flammable items in microgravity. The first task I was assigned was to track flames. This involves turning eight millimeter video recordings, of tests run in the five second drop tower, into avi format on the computer. The footage is then compressed and altered so that the flame can be seen more clearly. Using another program called Spotlight, line profiles were used to collect data describing the luminescence of the flame at different points. These raw data are saved as text files and run trough a macro so that a Matlab program can analyze it. By fitting the data to a curve and determining the areas of brightest luminescence, the behavior of the flame can be recorded numerically. After entering the data into a database, researchers can come back later and easily get information on flames resulting from different gas and liquid mixtures in microgravity. I also worked on phase two of the FATE project, which deals with safety aboard the ISS. This phase involves igniting projected droplets and determining how they react with secondary materials. Such simulations represent, on a small scale, the spread of onboard fires due to the effervescence of burning primary materials. I set up existing hardware to operate these experiments and ran tests with it, photographing the results. I also made CAD drawings of the apparatus and the area available on the (SF)2 rig for it to fit into. The experiment will later be performed on the KC-135, and the results gathered will be used to reanalyze current safety standards for the ISS, including the distance of required separation for flammable materials. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Mintz, Shauna M.↗