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At least 397 records · Page 22

Variational objective analysis for cyclone studies

Significant accomplishments during 1987 to 1988 are summarized with regard to each of the major project components. Model 1 requires satisfaction of two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the integrated continuity equation, and the hydrostatic equation. Model 2 requires satisfaction of model 1 plus the thermodynamic equation for a dry atmosphere. Model 3 requires satisfaction of model 2 plus the radiative transfer equation. Model 4 requires satisfaction of model 3 plus a moisture conservation equation and a parameterization for moist processes.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

A Variational Assimilation Method for Satellite and Conventional Data: Development of Basic Model for Diagnosis of Cyclone Systems

A summary is presented of the progress toward the completion of a comprehensive diagnostic objective analysis system based upon the calculus of variations. The approach was to first develop the objective analysis subject to the constraints that the final product satisfies the five basic primitive equations for a dry inviscid atmosphere: the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the continuity equation, the hydrostatic equation, and the thermodynamic equation. Then, having derived the basic model, there would be added to it the equations for moist atmospheric processes and the radiative transfer equation.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

Estimating central pressures of oceanic midlatitude cyclones

A method of determining surface pressures in oceanic storm systems using Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS-1) scatterometer data is employed to determine the lowest pressure in 25 storms. This method uses the surface winds as a lower boundary condition on a planetary boundary layer model to determine gradient winds and, thereby, pressure gradients. An optimization scheme referenced to a pressure outside the storm provides a pressure field and an estimate of the low pressure. The values are compared to European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses in each case; there is good agreement, with some expected differences.

Brown, R. A.↗

Bathymetric Effects on a Tropical Cyclone Wave Field at Landfall

On 26 August 1998, the NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter (SRA) flew aboard one of the WP-3D hurricane research aircraft to document the sea surface directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC, as Bonnie, a large Category 3 hurricane, was making landfall near Wilmington, NC. Two days earlier, the SRA had documented the wave field spatial variation in open water when Hurricane Bonnie was 400 km east of Abaco Island, Bahamas. Bonnie was similar in size during the two flights, but the maximum speed in the NOAA Hurricane Research Division surface wind analysis was 15% lower prior to landfall (39 m/s) than it had been in the open ocean (46 m/s). This was compensated for by its faster movement prior to landfall (9.5 m/s) than when it was encountered in the open ocean (5 m/s). The slower movement matched the group velocity of waves of 65 m length, so waves at the peak of the spectrum outdistanced the storm as soon as they were generated. The higher translation speed prior to landfall matched the group velocity of waves of 230 m length, significantly increasing the effective fetch and duration of waves near the peak of the spectrum which propagated in the direction of the storm track. The open ocean wave height variation indicated that Hurricane Bonnie would have produced waves of 11 m significant wave height on the shore northeast of Wilmington had it not been for the continental shelf. The bathymetry distributed the steepening and breaking process across the shelf so that the wavelength and wave height were reduced gradually as the shore was approached. The wave height 5 km from shore was about 4 m.

Wright, C. W.↗

Quasi-Equilibria of the Rotunno-Emanuel Tropical Cyclone Model

Long-term integrations using the Rotunno-Emanuel (RE) model demonstrate that given sufficient elapsed time the weak initial vortex specified by R E can also lead to tropical cyclogenesis, albeit at a slower growth rate. Thus the RE notion of the finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis is valid only if the period of examination is limited to the first eight days. These results also show that, if initial vortex as specified by RE is used, prior to cyclogenesis the model state does not resemble the observed pre-genesis disturbances in the sense that there is no precipitation in the center of the disturbance. Another experiment using the same model but with the initial vortex replaced by a disturbance with a different structure shows that a state resembling the observed pre-genesis disturbances can be simulated and this state can lead to spontaneous cyclogenesis, a rapid transition between two quasi-equilibria. This spontaneous cyclogenesis is associated with the generation of a new convective region at large radius and its subsequent contraction, which reminds one of the observed eye-wall replacement, but the distinction from the latter is obvious.

Chao, Winston C.↗

[Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]

The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance fights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 m/s and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of: rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intense.

Source record↗

Mesoscale Aspects of the Downshear Reformation of a Tropical Cyclone

The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance fights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 m/s and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of: rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intense.

Source record↗

[Summary of Research on Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]

The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance flights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 meters per second and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of, rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intensify. Despite the subsequent weakening of the reformed center, it reached land with greater intensity than the original center. It is argued that this intensification process was set into motion by the vertical wind shear in the presence of an environment with upward motion forced by the upper tropospheric trough. In addition, the new center formed much closer to the coast and made landfall much earlier than predicted. Such vertical shear-induced intensity and track fluctuations are important to understand, especially in storms approaching the coast. The structures of the highly sheared tropical storm Chantal During CAMEX-4 is also discussed.

Source record↗

The NASA Real Time Mission Monitor - A Situational Awareness Tool for Conducting Tropical Cyclone Field Experiments

The NASA Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a situational awareness tool that integrates satellite, aircraft state information, airborne and surface instruments, and weather state data in to a single visualization package for real time field experiment management. RTMM optimizes science and logistic decision-making during field experiments by presenting timely data and graphics to the users to improve real time situational awareness of the experiment's assets. The RTMM is proven in the field as it supported program managers, scientists, and aircraft personnel during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (investigated African easterly waves and Tropical Storm Debby and Helene) during August-September 2006 in Cape Verde, the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling experiment during July-August 2007 in Costa Rica, and the Hurricane Aerosonde mission into Hurricane Noel in 2-3 November 2007. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible through data acquisition systems, network communication links, and network server resources built and managed by collaborators at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC). RTMM is evolving towards a more flexible and dynamic combination of sensor ingest, network computing, and decision-making activities through the use of a service oriented architecture based on community standards and protocols. Each field experiment presents unique challenges and opportunities for advancing the functionality of RTMM. A description of RTMM, the missions it has supported, and its new features that are under development will be presented.

Goodman, Michael↗

'Electrically-Hot' Convection and Tropical Cyclone Development in the Eastern Atlantic

The depth and intensity of convective-scale "hot" towers in intensifying tropical disturbances has been hypothesized to play a role in tropical cyclogenesis via dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks on the larger meso-to-synoptic scale circulation. In this investigation we investigate the role that widespread and/or intense lightning-producing convection (i.e., "electrically-hot towers") resident in African Easterly Waves (AEW) may play in tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. NCEP reanalysis data for the months of July to November for the years 2004, 2006, and 2007 are analyzed for the domain of 5 N - 15 N and 500W - 300 E. Specifically, NCEP data for individual AEWs are partitioned into northerly, southerly, trough, and ridge phases using the 700 hPa meridional winds. Subsequently, information from National Hurricane Center storm reports were divided up into developing and non-developing waves (i.e. tropical cyclogenesis). Finally, composites were created of developing and non-developing waves using the NCEP variables, but with the inclusion of lightning flash count and infrared brightness temperature information. The Zeus and World Wide Lightning Location Network lightning data were used for the lightning information, and the IR brightness temperature data was extracted from the NASA global-merged infrared brightness temperature dataset.

Leppert, Kenneth, II↗

Demonstration of Effects on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution Global Model from Variation in Cumulus Convection Parameterization

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models that have been developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to support NASA's earth science research in data analysis, observing system modeling and design, climate and weather prediction, and basic research. The work presented used GEOS-5 with 0.25o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels (up to 0.01 hP) resolving both the troposphere and stratosphere, with closer packing of the levels close to the surface. The model includes explicit (grid-scale) moist physics, as well as convective parameterization schemes. Results will be presented that will demonstrate strong dependence in the results of modeling of a strong hurricane on the type of convective parameterization scheme used. The previous standard (default) option in the model was the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme, which uses a quasi-equilibrium closure. In the cases shown, this scheme does not permit the efficient development of a strong storm in comparison with observations. When this scheme is replaced by a modified version of the Kain-Fritsch scheme, which was originally developed for use on grids with intervals of order 25 km such as the present one, the storm is able to develop to a much greater extent, closer to that of reality. Details of the two cases will be shown in order to elucidate the differences in the two modeled storms.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

The Representation of Tropical Cyclones Within the Global William Putman Non-Hydrostatic Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) at Cloud-Permitting Resolutions

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-S), an earth system model developed in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), has integrated the non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. The extension to a non-hydrostatic dynamical framework and the quasi-uniform cubed-sphere geometry permits the efficient exploration of global weather and climate modeling at cloud permitting resolutions of 10- to 4-km on today's high performance computing platforms. We have explored a series of incremental increases in global resolution with GEOS-S from irs standard 72-level 27-km resolution (approx.5.5 million cells covering the globe from the surface to 0.1 hPa) down to 3.5-km (approx. 3.6 billion cells).

Putman, William M.↗

Evaluation of Model Microphysics Within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

Recent studies evaluating the bulk microphysical schemes (BMPs) within cloud resolving models (CRMs) have indicated large uncertainties and errors in the amount and size distributions of snow and cloud ice aloft. The snow prediction is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33‐km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Coldseason Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment, as well as a few years (15 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of snow at SBNY. For the 15 cases at SBNY, the WSM6, Morrison (MORR), Thompson (THOM2), and Stony Brook (SBU-YLIN) BMPs were validated. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU-YLIN schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM2 is ~0.25 meters per second too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM2, and MORR schemes were ~0.25 meters per second too slow, while the SBU-YLIN was 0.25 to 0.5 meters per second too fast. Overall, the BMPs simulate a size distribution close to the observed for D < 4 mm in the dendritic, plates, and mixed habit periods. The model BMPs underestimate the size distribution when large aggregates were observed. For D > 6 mm in the dendrites, side planes, and mixed habit periods, the BMPs are likely not simulating enough aggregation to create a larger size distribution, although the MORR (double moment) scheme seemed to perform best. These SBNY results will be compared with some results from GCPEx for a warm frontal snow band observed at 18 February 2012.

Colle, Brian A.↗