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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Monitoring tropical-cyclone intensity using environmental wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

The feasibility of predicting changes in tropical storm intensity based on satellite observations of the dynamical relationships between the large-scale upper and lower tropospheric circulations surrounding the cyclone and the characteristics of the storm's inner core is studied. Rapid-scan visible images from the SMS-1 and GOES-1 satellites were used to examine the local change in relative angular momentum (RAM), the lower and upper tropospheric environmental areal mean relative vorticity and transverse circulation on three consecutive days for tropical storms Caroline (August, 1975), Anita (August and September, 1977) and Ella (September, 1978). The three case studies suggest that storm intensification may be predicted from the storm's local change of net RAM, with this quantity best correlated with storm intensification after a time lag of 6 hours. Intensification is also found to be related to the environmental lower and upper tropospheric areal-mean relative vorticity, and to the upper tropospheric environmental circulation, which acts either to hinder or to enhance the storm's anticyclonic outflow channels.

Rodgers, E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Forecasting tropical cyclone recurvature with upper tropospheric winds

Data from 17 tropical cyclones during the 1974 through 1979 hurricane seasons are used to investigate whether the high level winds far to the northwest, north and northeast of the hurricane center can be used to predict hurricane track recurvature. When the man 200-mb winds 1500 to 2000 km northwest and north of the storm center equal or exceed 20 m/s, 80 per cent of the storms recurved before traveling as much as 12 degrees of longitude farther west. The high winds were also used to predict change in direction of forward motion during the next 72 hours. The regression equations developed explain up to 41 per cent of the variance in future direction. In addition to the geostrophic winds used, winds were also obtained by tracking clouds with successive satellite imagery. The u-components of the satellite winds are highly correlated with the geostrophic winds at 200-mb and could probably be used instead of them when available. The v-components are less highly correlated.

Gentry, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A satellite stereoscopic technique to estimate tropical cyclone intensity

The techniques used to obtain the mean equivalent temperature of the eye wall for Hurricanes Frederic (1979) and Allen (1980) using GOES satellite IR and stereoscopic observations are described. The eye wall is the area of greatest convection near the center of the storm, and is bounded by the inner radius around the eye and the outer radius bounding the area of inner core convection. The stereoscopic capability afforded by the GOES West and East spacecraft permits simultaneous, two-view imagery of a tropical cyclone, yielding height measurement accuracies of 0.5 km and horizontal accuracies as small as 1 km. An airborne lidar unit was used to verify the height measurements made of Hurricane Frederic. At the same time, the GOES East Visible IR Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) provided the mean wall temperatures from the release of latent heat. The trials aided in identifying the assumptions and consequent inaccuracies introduced into the temperature sounding data during analysis. The satellite data is concluded useful for monitoring changes in storm intensity.

Rodgers, E. B.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Numerical Prediction of the President's Day Cyclone

Numerical-diagnostic studies of major anomalous weather events are being conducted in order to investigate the relevant physical processes associated with the events and the role of satellite observing systems in the analysis and prediction of these phenomena. One component of this study is concerned with the numerical prediction of intense coastal and oceanic cyclogenesis. The specific objectives of this research are: (1) to assess the accuracy of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences model predictions of cyclogenesis, (2) to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the prediction, and (3) to evaluate the sensitivity of the model predictions to the initial conditions. It was shown that diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short-wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection, upper level divergence, and upward vertical motion in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large-scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Applications of VAS and TOVS to tropical cyclones

The results of the attempts to use VAS (visible IR spin scan radiometer atmospheric sounder) data for predicting tropical cyclones are reported. VAS, mounted on a GEO platform, has 14 detectors for upwelling radiance. The McIDAS software was, by the 1983 hurricane season, upgraded to providing imagery and mass, motion and moisture patterns using the satellite data, which also permitted determinations of accurate temperature and moisture profiles. Comparisons made between VAS and radiosonde data revealed fairly close agreement of satellite and in-situ conditions during the 1983 season. When combined with data from the Tiros operational vertical sounder (TOVS) to define wind streamlines and predict the path of a hurricane from data fed into numerical models, sufficiently good agreement was obtained to initiate plans to forecast a hurricane trajectory during the 1984 season.

Velden, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The Presidents' Day cyclone of 18-19 February 1979 - Influence of upstream trough amplification and associated tropopause folding on rapid cyclogenesis

The Presidents' Day cyclone of 18-19 February, 1979 is analyzed based on conventional radiosonde data, infrared and visible satellite imagery, water vapor images and ozone measurement. The well-known synoptic-scale characteristics of the PJ-trough system are described, and evidence for the development of the tropopause fold are presented. Processes contributing to the formation of the fold are discussed in terms of an evaluation of the Sawyer-Eliassen circulation equation and a diagnostic evaluation of the ageostrophic winds and vertical motion near the polar jet streak. The documentation of stratospheric extrusions and their possible role in cyclogenesis is reviewed, and Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics are used to establish a connection between the tropopause fold associated with the polar jet streak and rapid cyclogenesis along the East Coast. Conservation of potential vorticity expressed in isentropic coordinates is used as a constraint from which to view cyclogenesis.

Uccellini, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Mesoscale generation of available potential energy in the warm sector of an extratropical cyclone

The generation of available potential energy (APE) was evaluated in the warm sector of an extratropical cyclone containing intense convective activity. Mesoscale rawinsonde data from AVE-SESAME '79 was employed. Parametrization techniques were used for latent and sensible heating components, and variations for the Kuo scheme provided convective latent heat release. Radiative transfer models were used to obtain estimates of infrared and solar processes. The results indicated that solar heating was greater than IR cooling near midday. An extensive low-level cloud deck was the most radiatively active area. Negative generation of APE occurred during most of the period for the SESAME domain as a whole. The leading contributor was convective latent heating located primarily in regions of negative efficiency. Infrared cooling was the only component to consistently produce positive generation. Sensible heating provided an important sink of APE in the low levels during the afternoon.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Utilization of satellite-derived cloud cover to improve the estimation of latent heat release in a winter extratropical cyclone

A simple scheme for utilizing satellite cloud pattern information to improve the estimation of parameterized stable and convective latent heat release is proposed and tested for an extratropical cyclone occurring over the United States during January 9-11, 1975. Calculations are done over the standard North American rawinsonde data region and over a sparse data region simulated by ignoring one-third of the original rawinsonde stations. Results indicate 15 percent and 30 percent improvements in latent heating estimates derived from the total and sparse data sets, respectively. A larger improvement was found using the sparse data set because the parameterized latent heat release estimates obtained using these data were poorer than those obtained using the total data set.

Lin, S.-J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Monitoring and predicting tropical cyclone movement using geosynchronous satellite remote sensing techniques

Data collected on special hurricane days by the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) instrument flown on a satellite in 1981 and 1982 were studied for their usefulness in forecasting motion of hurricanes. The retrieved constant pressure heights for the 500-mb surface provided the basis for reasonable forecasts of 24 hour hurricane motion. The conclusions are illustrated with examples from Hurricane Harvey (1981) and Hurricane Irene (1981). Recommendations are made for future use of the VAS type instruments for tropical cyclone forecasting.

Dubach, L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Evaluation of a multivariate variational assimilation of conventional and satellite data for the diagnosis of cyclone systems

A variational data assimilation method for the study of cyclone-scale weather systems is described. The variational data assimilation method is to incorporate primitive equations for a moist, convectively unstable atmosphere and the radiative transfer equation. The variables to be adjusted include the three-dimensional vector wind, height, temperature, and moisture from rawinsonde data, and cloud-wind vectors, moisture, and radiance from satellite data. The development of variational model 1 which contains two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, an integrated continuity equation, and a hydrostatic equation is examined. Examples applying the assimilation model to rawinsonde and satellite data are presented.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Heat budgets of analyses and forecasts of an explosively deepening maritime cyclone

The contribution of different physical processes to the explosive maritime cyclogenesis event in western North Pacific during January 12-15, 1979 was estimated by calculating quasi-Lagrangian heat budgets based on the ECMWF analyses and the numerical predictions by the UCLA general circulation model. The heat budgets suggest that the explosive cyclogenesis event was associated with very strong latent heat release in the lower troposphere, with the heating rate about twice as large as was found in studies of nonexplosively deepening extratropical cyclones. An experimental integration of the UCLA model without latent heat release indicates that 75 percent of the deepening in this cyclogenesis event can be explained by dry dynamics alone. The latent heat release serves to enhance and modulate the rapid cyclogenesis.

Liou, Chi-Sann↗
NASA NTRS1988

A model-based diagnostic study of the rapid development phase of the Presidents' Day cyclone

A model simulation of the rapid development phaser of the Presidents' Day cyclone on February 19, 1979, is studied. Model trajectories and Eulerian analyses show that, during this phase, three airstreams converge into the cyclogenetic region. The evolution of the PJ-trough system and its associated tropopause fold is described, including the simulated surface low and the vertical profile of mass divergence which contributes to the decreasing sea-level pressure. The various terms of the vorticity equation are evaluated to identify the processes contributing to the increase in absolute vorticity. The nature and origin of airstreams entering the low-level circulation associated with rapid cyclogenesis are examined from a Lagrangian perspective.

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Latent heating associated with a rapidly developing cyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean

The impact of latent heat release (LHR) on a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone is assessed by comparing the height tendencies forced by LHR with the total height tendency as represented by the extended height-tendency equation. In addition, the calculated LHR estimates are assessed using satellite information and observed precipitation rates. It is concluded that the calculated values underestimate the magnitude of LHR consistently. Furthermore, the over-water LHR patterns require adjustment in order to render them more consistent with the satellite-observed precipitating cloud features.

Fosdick, Earl K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Diagnosing development. II - A study of rapid cyclone development using analyzed data fields

A diagnosis is presented of the explosive development phase of a cyclone that occurred over the southeastern U.S. during the 24 hour period 1200 GMT January 20 to 1200 GMT January 21, 1979. The Zwack-Osossi development equation is extended to incorporate geostrophic and ageostrophic forcing of the basic development parameter, geostrophic vorticity tendency. This equation yields reasonable comparability with observed geostrophic vorticity changes and shows positive vorticity advection, latent heat release and thermal advection to be the primary development mechanisms.

Smith, Phillip↗
NASA NTRS1992

Satellite-derived surface latent heat fluxes in a rapidly intensifying marine cyclone

Surface latent heat fluxes are estimated in the vicinity of a rapidly deepening cyclone before and during its period of most rapid intensification. This was done with a bulk parameterization scheme and remotely sensed input data. A method is studied for estimating the difference in specific humidity between the surface and a ten meter height using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) observed integrated water vapor field and a sea surface temperature analysis. The surface latent heat flux fields generally have estimated errors below 40 pct. south of 40 deg. N and outside the region of high integrated water vapor values associated with frontal bands. The method of estimating surface latent heat fluxes for the case study was found to be usable in most regions of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean except for those locations directly adjacent to coastlines in instances of offshore flow and in the vicinity of surface fronts.

Miller, Douglas K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Energy transformations associated with the synoptic and planetary scales during the evolution of a blocking anticyclone and an upstream explosively-developing cyclone

The eddy kinetic energy (KE), release of eddy potential energy, generation of eddy kinetic energy, and exchange between eddy and zonal kinetic energy are investigated for a blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean and an extratropical cyclone that developed during January 17-21, 1979. The results indicate that KE was maintained by baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic. As released potential energy was being used to generate KE, a portion of the KE was barotropically converted to zonal KE. These transformations were dominated by the synoptic-scale component. While changes in the mass field depended not only on the synoptic scale but also on the interactions between the synoptic and planetary scales, the corresponding changes in the eddy motion fields responded largely to synoptic-scale processes.

Smith, Phillip J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Satellite-derived surface latent heat fluxes in a rapidly intensifying marine cyclone

The aim of this article is to estimate surface latent heat fluxes in the vicinity of a rapidly deepening cyclone before and during its period of most rapid intensification. This is done with a bulk parameterization scheme and remotely sensed input data. A method for estimating the difference in specific humidity between the surface and a 10-m height is investigated using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager-observed integrated water vapor field and a sea surface temperature analysis. The surface latent heat flux fields generally have estimated errors below 40 percent south of 40 deg N and outside the region of high integrated water vapor values associated with frontal bands. The method of estimating surface latent heat fluxes for the case study was found to be usable in most regions of the northwest Atlantic Ocean except for those locations directly adjacent to coastlines in instances of offshore flow and in the vicinity of surface fronts.

Miller, Douglas K.↗