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DOE OSTI2021

How different power plant types contribute to electric grid reliability, resilience, and vulnerability: a comparative analytical framework

Abstract This work explores the dependability tradeoffs provided by the most common types of central power plants in the United States. Historically, the electricity sector has lacked consensus on how reliability , resilience , and vulnerability differ and how those metrics change depending on the power plant fleet composition. We propose distinct definitions for these metrics and an analytical framework to evaluate power plant fleet dependability. Using data analysis and literature review, we identify fifteen dependability attributes across which we rank eleven power plant types relative to natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) plants. We use NGCC as the benchmark because it is common to many locations and is of relatively recent vintage. The framework shows that each power plant type has unique dependability benefits and drawbacks. We provide examples of how researchers may use the framework to evaluate grid dependability qualitatively under different scenarios. We find that assuming all attributes that contribute to grid dependability are equally important and additive, electric grid dependability is best supported when power plant fleets include a mixture of power generation technologies. Then, we discuss scenario characteristics that could alter the prioritization and relationships of attributes. We also find that if current capacity installation trends continue to favor low- and zero-carbon power plants, US power grids may benefit from increased resilience and reduced vulnerability at the cost of decreased reliability. We conclude by recommending methods for adapting the framework and quantifying relationships between attributes in individual scenarios.

Ramirez-Meyers, K. (ORCID:0000000291216952)↗

DOE OSTI2026

The ABCs of On-Demand Transit (ODT)

On-demand mobility - also referred to as on-demand transit (ODT) - is a form of public mobility that is flexible with respect to where and when service is provided, and ODT deployments have increased significantly in recent years. Transit agencies are becoming increasingly interested in ODT, and due to differing definitions and various service design and business model options, it can be difficult to learn about the emerging industry. This work provides an overview of the definitions of ODT, recent trends internationally and in the U.S., ODT's benefits and challenges (particularly compared to fixed-route transit), three primary service design options, system costs and funding considerations, and a metrics framework for evaluating ODT systems to ensure continued successful performance. Identified benefits include increased service areas, short ride and wait times, increased user flexibility, potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions through shared trips and smaller, right-sized vehicles, increased safety and comfort through door-to-door service, and rich data streams including granular spatio-temporal data that can be analyzed to continuously improve the service. Challenges include scaling ODT service up as small increases in ridership require additional supply to keep service quality high, serving peak times including keeping low wait times, the lack of fixed schedule being challenging for commuters, integrating ODT services with nearby transit systems, and equity for riders without smartphones who cannot track the vehicle in a mobile app. Finally, an overview of seven ODT case studies (in Texas, Missouri, New York, and Ontario, Canada) performed by NREL and related analysis of travel time, energy and emissions, costs, and equity are presented. Initial key findings include: ODT can be cost- and energy-effective compared to fixed-route transit, ODT serves more people than other transit options, and ODT system deployments can be followed by rapid growth.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the Effects of Atmospheric Turbulent Fluctuations on the Wake Structure of Wind Turbines and Their Blade Vibrational Dynamics

In recent trends, a rising demand for renewable energy has driven wind turbines to larger proportions, where lighter blade designs are often adopted to reduce the costs associated with logistics and production. This causes modern utility-scale wind turbine blades to be inherently more flexible, and their amplified aeroelastic sensitivity results in complex multi-physics reactions to variant atmospheric conditions, including dynamic patterns of aerodynamic loading at the rotor and vortex structure evolutions within the wake. In this paper, we analyze the influence of inflow variance for wind turbines with large, flexible rotors through simulations of the National Rotor Testbed (NRT) turbine, located at Sandia National Labs’ Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility in Lubbock, Texas. The Common Ordinary Differential Equation Framework (CODEF) modeling suite is used to simulate wind turbine aeroelastic oscillatory behavior and wind farm vortex wake interactions for a range of flexible NRT blade variations, operating in differing conditions of variant atmospheric flow. CODEF solutions of turbine operation in Steady-In-The-Average (SITA) wind conditions are compared to SITA wind conditions featuring a controlled gust-like pulse overimposed, to isolate the effects of typical wind fluctuations. Finally, simulations of realistic time-varying wind conditions from SWiFT meteorological tower measurements are compared to the solutions of SITA wind conditions. These increasingly complex atmospheric inflow variations are tested to show the differing effects evoked by various patterns of spatiotemporal atmospheric flow fluctuations. An analysis is presented for solutions of wind turbine aeroelastic response and vortex wake evolution, to elucidate the consequences of variant inflow, which pertain to wind turbine dynamics at an individual and farm-collective scale. The comparisons of simulated farm flow for SITA and measured fluctuating wind conditions show that certain regions of the wake contain up to a 12% difference in normalized axial velocity, due to the introduction of wind fluctuations. The findings of this study prove valuable for practical applications in wind farm control and optimization strategies, with particular significance for modern utility-scale wind power plants operating in variant atmospheric conditions.

Farrell, Alayna (ORCID:000000023555720X)↗

NASA NTRS2017

Beyond Control Centers

For NASA's Resource Prospector (RP) Lunar Rover Mission, we are moving away from a control center concept, to a fully distributed operation utilizing control nodes, with decision support from anywhere via mobile devices. This operations concept will utilize distributed information systems, notifications, mobile data access, and optimized mobile data display for off-console decision support. We see this concept of operations as a step in the evolution of mission operations from a central control center concept to a mission operations anywhere concept. The RP example is part of a trend, in which mission expertise for design, development and operations is distributed across countries and across the globe. Future spacecraft operations will be most cost efficient and flexible by following this distributed expertise, enabling operations from anywhere. For the RP mission we arrived at the decision to utilize a fully distributed operations team, where everyone operates from their home institution, based on evaluating the following factors: the requirement for physical proximity for near-real time command and control decisions; the cost of distributed control nodes vs. a centralized control center; the impact on training and mission preparation of flying the team to a central location. Physical proximity for operational decisions is seldom required, though certain categories of decisions, such as launch abort, or close coordination for mission or safety-critical near-real-time command and control decisions may benefit from co-location. The cost of facilities and operational infrastructure has not been found to be a driving factor for location in our studies. Mission training and preparation benefit from having all operators train and operate from home institutions.

Operations↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wind Plant Operations and Maintenance Challenges and Research Opportunities

Global wind industry has experienced tremendous growth during the past two decades and the trend does not appear changing in near future. However, the industry is still challenged by premature component failures and high operations & maintenance (O&M) costs, which can account for up to 35% of levelized cost of energy. It is imperative for the industry to improve performance, reliability and reduce O&M costs through advanced technologies, enabled by research in related disciplines, to be competitive. This talk will first briefly discuss the challenges with wind plant O&M, then give an overview of related NREL research in the areas of performance, reliability, and O&M cost modeling, finally touch on future R&D opportunities in related areas. The authors hope some of these challenges are of interested to and can be addressed by the INFORMS community in future.

costs↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchtop Autonomous Electrochemical Characterization System for Combinatorial Thin-Film Solid Oxide Electrodes

The design of materials for electrochemical energy conversion is complicated by a vast search space of candidate materials and multifaceted property requirements: multicarrier conductivity, stability, and catalytic activity are all necessary but rarely intersect. Although self-driving laboratories are rapidly rising to address such material optimization problems, the required infrastructure for integrated, large-scale robotic facilities can be cost-prohibitive. Here we develop and evaluate a closed-loop measurement system for efficient screening of proton-conducting oxide electrodes for ceramic fuel cells and electrolyzers, building on top of an existing benchtop instrument and integrating techniques for rapid impedance measurement and automated analysis. This system exemplifies a “minimum viable” self-driving implementation that can deliver substantial benefits with relatively simple infrastructure. Combinatorial thin-film microelectrode libraries are characterized with a recently developed joint time-domain and frequency-domain impedance measurement technique, which provides an order-of-magnitude acceleration relative to conventional impedance spectroscopy. The distribution of relaxation times is extracted from impedance data and analyzed without human intervention. These results feed an active learning and Bayesian optimization process that learns to predict electrochemical impedance as a function of material composition, measurement temperature, oxygen partial pressure, and electrical bias, which further reduces the screening time by tenfold with optimized experimental sequences. We apply this system to Ba⁡(Co,Fe,Zr,Y)⁢O 3−𝛿 combinatorial libraries and evaluate its effectiveness for learning material property trends and optimizing expensive-to-evaluate properties such as activation energy. This offers insights into key methodological aspects of practical autonomous experimentation, including surrogate model validation, cost-aware acquisition functions, and high-throughput data interpretation. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the system for rapidly gathering information, but also highlight real-world experimental challenges of thin-film degradation and numerical instability in surrogate models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Scalable Method for Decarbonizing Modular Building Solutions: Preprint

The decarbonization movement emphasizes the shift in focus from energy efficiency to directly reducing global-warming impact. Blokable, LLC, a vertically integrated modular builder with an all-electric portfolio, worked with NREL on a roadmap to decarbonize its high-performance building product at a relative cost advantage by utilizing the learning curves of mass production. Previous decarbonization literature focused on either i) lifecycle assessments, or ii) efficiency measures. These decarbonization exercises were bespoke to individual building projects and did not consider positive feedback loops of builder experience or process repetition. Vertically integrated, prefab builders possess the unique ability to leverage learning and repetition to decarbonize their design-build-operate process. This collaboration between Blokable and NREL resulted in a decarbonization strategy utilizing the company's scaling and production efficiencies, on-site renewable energy and storage, and the projected evolution of building components over time based on trends and emerging legislation. The method developed here encompasses a growing business model, lifecycle carbon assessment, and projected changes in product and grid emissions over time due to existing trends and emerging legislation. This methodology incorporates learning-curve efficiencies gleaned from scaled manufacturing, as well as open-source tools integration for energy and carbon accounting. The output projects and compares cost and carbon savings per modular unit as production increases to 10,000 dwelling units annually over 15 years. The resulting roadmap illustrates a path to roughly 60% carbon savings and beyond-net-zero-energy performance at no incremental cost by 2030. The methodology can be mapped to other integrated or productized builders for methodical decarbonization.

affordable housing↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Scalable Method for Decarbonizing Modular Building Solutions

affordable housing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insights from application of a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to an intensive urban black carbon monitoring dataset

Existing regulatory pollutant monitoring networks rely on a small number of centrally located measurement sites that are purposefully sited away from major emission sources. While informative of general air quality trends regionally, these networks often do not fully capture the local variability of air pollution exposure within a community. Recent technological advancements have reduced the cost of sensors, allowing air quality monitoring campaigns with high spatial resolution. The 100×100 black carbon (BC) monitoring network deployed 100 low-cost BC sensors across the 15 km 2 West Oakland, CA community for 100 days in the summer of 2017, producing a nearly continuous site-specific time series of BC concentrations which we aggregated to one-hour averages. Leveraging this dataset, we employed a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to accurately predict local spatio-temporal concentration patterns throughout West Oakland, at locations without monitors (average cross-validated hourly temporal R 2 =0.60). Using our model, we identified spatially varying temporal pollution patterns associated with small-scale geographic features and proximity to local sources. In a sub-sampling analysis, here we demonstrated that fine scale predictions of nearly comparable accuracy can be obtained with our modeling approach by using ~30% of the 100×100 BC network supplemented by a shorter-term high-density campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

SARS-CoV-2 raw wastewater surveillance from student residences on an urban university campus

The COVID-19 pandemic brought about an urgent need to monitor the community prevalence of infection and detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Testing individual people is the most reliable method to measure the spread of the virus in any given community, but it is also the most expensive and time-consuming. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been used since the 1960s when scientists implemented monitoring to measure the effectiveness of the Polio vaccine. Since then, WBE has been used to monitor populations for various pathogens, drugs, and pollutants. In August 2020, the University of Tennessee-Knoxville implemented a SARS-CoV-2 surveillance program that began with raw wastewater surveillance of the student residence buildings on campus, the results of which were shared with another lab group on campus that oversaw the pooled saliva testing of students. Sample collection began at 8 am, and the final RT-qPCR results were obtained by midnight. The previous day’s results were presented to the campus administrators and the Student Health Center at 8 am the following morning. The buildings surveyed included all campus dormitories, fraternities, and sororities, 46 buildings in all representing an on-campus community of over 8,000 students. The WBE surveillance relied upon early morning “grab” samples and 24-h composite sampling. Because we only had three Hach AS950 Portable Peristaltic Sampler units, we reserved 24-h composite sampling for the dormitories with the highest population of students. Samples were pasteurized, and heavy sediment was centrifuged and filtered out, followed by a virus concentration step before RNA extraction. Each sample was tested by RT-qPCR for the presence of SARS-CoV-2, using the CDC primers for N Capsid targets N1 and N3. The subsequent pooled saliva tests from sections of each building allowed lower costs and minimized the total number of individual verification tests that needed to be analyzed by the Student Health Center. Our WBE results matched the trend of the on-campus cases reported by the student health center. The highest concentration of genomic copies detected in one sample was 5.06 × 10 7 copies/L. Raw wastewater-based epidemiology is an efficient, economical, fast, and non-invasive method to monitor a large community for a single pathogen or multiple pathogen targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

NASA sounding rockets, 1958 - 1968: A historical summary

The development and use of sounding rockets is traced from the Wac Corporal through the present generation of rockets. The Goddard Space Flight Center Sounding Rocket Program is discussed, and the use of sounding rockets during the IGY and the 1960's is described. Advantages of sounding rockets are identified as their simplicity and payload simplicity, low costs, payload recoverability, geographic flexibility, and temporal flexibility. The disadvantages are restricted time of observation, localized coverage, and payload limitations. Descriptions of major sounding rockets, trends in vehicle usage, and a compendium of NASA sounding rocket firings are also included.

Corliss, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Computing technology in the 1980's

Advances in computing technology have been led by consistently improving semiconductor technology. The semiconductor industry has turned out ever faster, smaller, and less expensive devices since transistorized computers were first introduced 20 years ago. For the next decade, there appear to be new advances possible, with the rate of introduction of improved devices at least equal to the historic trends. The implication of these projections is that computers will enter new markets and will truly be pervasive in business, home, and factory as their cost diminishes and their computational power expands to new levels. The computer industry as we know it today will be greatly altered in the next decade, primarily because the raw computer system will give way to computer-based turn-key information and control systems.

Stone, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Jig For Stereoscopic Photography

Separations between views adjusted precisely for best results. Simple jig adjusted to set precisely, distance between right and left positions of camera used to make stereoscopic photographs. Camera slides in slot between extreme positions, where it takes stereoscopic pictures. Distance between extreme positions set reproducibly with micrometer. In view of trend toward very-large-scale integration of electronic circuits, training method and jig used to make training photographs useful to many companies to reduce cost of training manufacturing personnel.

Nielsen, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Satellite servicing economic study

Previous studies have shown that satellite servicing is cost effective; however, all of these studies were of different formats, dollar year, learning rates, availability, etc. Therefore, it was difficult to correlate any useful trends from these studies. The reviewed study was initiated to correlate the economic data into a common data base, using a common set of assumptions. A selected set of existed funded programs was then analyzed to provide an independent analysis of the servicing options and potential economic benefits.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1990

Satellite servicing economic study

Previous studies have shown that satellite servicing is cost effective; however, all of these studies were of different formats, dollar year, learning rates, availability, etc. Threfore, it was difficult to correlate any useful trends from these studies. The reviewed study was initiated to correlate the economic data into a common data base, using a common set of assumptions. A selected set of existed funded programs was then analyzed to provide an independent analysis of the servicing options and potential economic benefits.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2012

Cis-Lunar Base Camp

Historically, when mounting expeditions into uncharted territories, explorers have established strategically positioned base camps to pre-position required equipment and consumables. These base camps are secure, safe positions from which expeditions can depart when conditions are favorable, at which technology and operations can be tested and validated, and facilitate timely access to more robust facilities in the event of an emergency. For human exploration missions into deep space, cis-lunar space is well suited to serve as such a base camp. The outer regions of cis-lunar space, such as the Earth-Moon Lagrange points, lie near the edge of Earth s gravity well, allowing equipment and consumables to be aggregated with easy access to deep space and to the lunar surface, as well as more distant destinations, such as near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Mars and its moons. Several approaches to utilizing a cis-lunar base camp for sustainable human exploration, as well as some possible future applications are identified. The primary objective of the analysis presented in this paper is to identify options, show the macro trends, and provide information that can be used as a basis for more detailed mission development. Compared within are the high-level performance and cost of 15 preliminary cis-lunar exploration campaigns that establish the capability to conduct crewed missions of up to one year in duration, and then aggregate mass in cis-lunar space to facilitate an expedition from Cis-Lunar Base Camp. Launch vehicles, chemical propulsion stages, and electric propulsion stages are discussed and parametric sizing values are used to create architectures of in-space transportation elements that extend the existing in-space supply chain to cis-lunar space. The transportation options to cis-lunar space assessed vary in efficiency by almost 50%; from 0.16 to 0.68 kg of cargo in cis-lunar space for every kilogram of mass in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). For the 15 cases, 5-year campaign costs vary by only 15% from 0.36 to 0.51 on a normalized scale across all campaigns. Thus the development and first flight costs of assessed transportation options are similar. However, the cost of those options per flight beyond the initial operational capability varies by 70% from 0.3 to 1.0 on a normalized scale. The 10-year campaigns assessed begin to show the effect of this large range of cost beyond initial operational capability as they vary approximately 25% with values from 0.75 to 1.0 on the normalized campaign scale. Therefore, it is important to understand both the cost of implementation and first use as well as long term utilization. Finally, minimizing long term recurring costs is critical to the affordability of future human space exploration missions. Finally minimizing long term recurring costs is critical to the affordability of future human space exploration missions.

Merrill, Raymond G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Review on robot-assisted polishing: Status and future trends

Nowadays, precision components have been extensively used in various industries such as biomedicine, photonics, and optics. To achieve nanometric surface roughness, high-precision polishing is mandatory. Compared with the conventional polishing techniques, the robot-assisted polishing has the advantages of flexible working ranges and low cost. Therefore, it has been more widely deployed in demanding polishing tasks. However, few review articles were found on this topic to provide a general progress on the development of the robot-assisted polishing technology. Here in this paper reviews the recent advancement of the robot-assisted polishing. Firstly, the integration of robots with various polishing techniques is overviewed, followed by the introduction of the research status of constant force control in robot-assisted polishing. Then, the errors in typical robot-assisted polishing systems are analyzed, together with the corresponding compensation methods. At last, the future trends in the development of robot-assisted polishing are discussed. This review is intended as a roadmap for researchers or engineers who are interested in robot-assisted polishing or machining.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Efficiency of Freight Transport: Freight Mobility Energy Productivity (F-MEP) Metric

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement is critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting is gaining pace in the recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregated in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance of freight systems. Addressing this research need, this paper presents the 'Freight Mobility Energy Productivity' metric to quantify freight performance of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, which shows intuitive results in quantifying freight performance. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight efficiency as a result of vehicle powertrain technology improvement. Results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the efficiency of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗