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At least 397 records · Page 22

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

M3MS-19IN0101201 Modeling Intra-granular Fission Gas Bubble Evolution in Uranium Dioxide during Transients

The SciDAC milestone M3MS-19IN0101201 on Modeling Intra-granular Fission Gas Bubble Evolution in Uranium Dioxide during Transients was completed with the development, testing and implementation in the Bison code of an engineering model for intra-granular fission gas bubble evolution that is applicable to transient conditions. The model extends the previous work on modeling bubble evolution during normal operating conditions to include additional complexity that arises during transient situations, in particular, the so-called intra-granular bubble coarsening. This phenomenon refers to the appearance of a second population of coarsened bubbles with diameters of tens to hundreds of nm, which co-exist with nanometric bubbles present also during normal operating conditions and are responsible for a large portion of transient fuel swelling. The developed model considers growth of bubbles along dislocations, associated with the absorption of vacancies available in the dislocation core region, and favored by pipe diffusion of fission gas atoms. The model also utilizes the formulation for the gas atom resolution rate developed in the present SciDAC project through molecular dynamics simulations by other institutions. The present work therefore demonstrates an operational multiscale approach, based on collaboration within the project. The model is validated to an extensive experimental dataset of ramp tested uranium dioxide fuel samples. Additionally, we present new applications of the base model for bubble evolution during normal operating conditions to Bison engineering simulations of Cr2O3-doped fuel rods irradiated in the Halden reactor. Simulation results in terms of integral fission gas release in the fuel rods are compared to the available experimental data, pointing out significant improvements in the engineering predictions compared to application of the empirical model that was available in Bison before the SciDAC developments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

String flash-boiling in gasoline direct injection simulations with transient needle motion

A computational study was performed to investigate the influence of transient needle motion on gasoline direct injection (GDI) internal nozzle flow and near-field sprays. Simulations were conducted with a compressible Eulerian flow solver modeling liquid, vapor, and non-condensable gas phases with a diffuse interface. Variable rate generation and condensation of fuel vapor were captured using the homogeneous relaxation model (HRM). The non-flashing (spray G) and flashing (spray G2) conditions specified by the Engine Combustion Network were modeled using the nominal spray G nozzle geometry and transient needle lift and wobble were based upon ensemble averaged x-ray imaging preformed at Argonne National Lab. The minimum needle lift simulated was 5 μm and dynamic mesh motion was achieved with Laplacian smoothing. The results were qualitatively validated against experimental imaging and the experimental rate of injection profile was captured accurately using pressure boundary conditions and needle motion to actu- ate the injection. Needle wobble was found to have no measurable effect on the flow. Low needle lift is shown to result in vapor generation as fuel rushes past the needle. In conclusion, the internal injector flow is shown to contain many transient and interacting vortices which cause perturbations in the spray angle, fluctuations in the mass flux, and frequently result in string flash-boiling.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Growth and Properties of Vapor Diffused Nb3Sn Coating for Superconducting Radiofrequency Accelerator Cavity Applications

The desire to reduce construction and operating costs of future SRF accelerators motivates the search for higher-performing alternative materials. Nb3Sn (Tc ~ 18.3 K and Hsh ~ 425 mT) is the front runner. The tin vapor diffusion process is currently the technique of choice to produce promising Nb3Sn-coated cavities. Understanding Nb3Sn nucleation and growth in this process is essential to progress. Samples representing different stages of Nb3Sn formation have been produced and studied to elucidate the effects of nucleation, growth, process conditions, and impurities. Nb3Sn films with thickness from a few hundred nm up to ~15 µm were grown and characterized. The microscopic examination of samples suggests the mechanisms of thin film nucleation and growth. Broadly, nucleation deposits tin as a thin surface phase and, under some conditions, a few hundred nanometer sized particles as well. Conditions that impair nucleation promote the formation of defects, such as ?patches?, in subsequent coating growth. Analysis of coated samples is consistent with the model of Nb3Sn grown in which tin diffuses via grain boundaries to Nb3Sn-Nb interface, where the growth Nb3Sn into the niobium bulk takes place. Similar scaling laws are found for grain growth and layer thickness. Non-parabolic layer growth is consistent with significant grain growth, which reduces the number of Sn-transport channels. Examination of patchy region in Nb3Sn coating revealed it to be large single crystalline grains, pointing to impeded Nb3Sn layer growth due to low grain boundary density, resulting in a significantly thin coating in those areas. Examination of RF loss regions from a coated cavity, identified with a thermometry mapping system showed patchy regions and carbonus defects were associated with strong local field-dependent surface resistance. RF measurements of coated cavities were combined with material characterization of witness samples and coated-cavity cutouts to improve the coating process. Understanding obtained and applied to cavity coatings, resulted in single-cell Nb3Sn cavities with a quality factor of ~2 ×1010 up to 15 MV/m accelerating gradient at 4 K, without "Wuppertal" Q-slope. We have also produced Nb3Sn-coated CEBAF 5-cell cavities with accelerating gradients useful for accelerator cryomodules. This dissertation will discuss the genesis of the Nb3Sn coating in a typical tin vapor diffusion process, effects of different process parameters, and its consequences to the coating of single-cell and multi-cell SRF cavities.

Pudasaini, Uttar↗

Transport Upscaling under Flow Heterogeneity and Matrix-Diffusion in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks

For this work, we investigate the combined effects of network scale flow variability and retention due to matrix-diffusion on the scaling behavior of transport through fractured media. Two of the principal mechanisms controlling the transport of solutes through fractured low-permeability media are broad distributions of flow velocities and retention times in the solid matrix. We study the relative impact of these two processes under different initial conditions using a set of three-dimensional discrete fracture network simulations. We use these simulations to develop and calibrate an upscaled continuous time random walk (CTRW) approach for advective transport based on an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for the particle velocities that accounts for the fracture-matrix coupling using a compound Poisson process. This CTRW model can be conditioned on the initial solute distribution and allows to observe late-time scaling behavior at distances beyond what is feasible to observe using high-fidelity direct numerical simulations. We determine that the initial distribution of particles leads to marked differences in the persistent long-term scale behavior in the solute travel time distributions, even those undergoing retention due to matrix diffusion through implementation and analysis of the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolution Models of Helium White Dwarf–Main-sequence Star Merger Remnants

It is predicted that orbital decay by gravitational-wave radiation and tidal interaction will cause some close binary stars to merge within a Hubble time. The merger of a helium-core white dwarf with a main-sequence (MS) star can produce a red giant branch star that has a low-mass hydrogen envelope when helium is ignited and thus become a hot subdwarf. Because detailed calculations have not been made, we compute post-merger models with a stellar evolution code. We find the evolutionary paths available to merger remnants and find the pre-merger conditions that lead to the formation of hot subdwarfs. We find that some such mergers result in the formation of stars with intermediate helium-rich surfaces. These stars later develop helium-poor surfaces owing to diffusion. Combining our results with a model population and comparing to observed stars, we find that some observed intermediate helium-rich hot subdwarfs can be explained as the remnants of the mergers of helium-core white dwarfs with low-mass MS stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The iterative thermal emission method: A more implicit modification of IMC

For over 40 years, the Implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) method has been used to solve challenging problems in thermal radiative transfer. These problems typically contain regions that are optically thick and diffusive, as a consequence of the high degree of “pseudo-scattering” introduced to model the absorption and reemission of photons from a tightly-coupled, radiating material. IMC has several well-known features that could be improved: a) it can be prohibitively computationally expensive, b) it introduces statistical noise into the material and radiation temperatures, which may be problematic in multiphysics simulations, and c) under certain conditions, solutions can be nonphysical, in that they violate a maximum principle, where IMC-calculated temperatures can be greater than the maximum temperature used to drive the problem. We have developed a variant of IMC called iterative thermal emission IMC, which is designed to have a reduced parameter space in which the maximum principle is violated. ITE IMC is a more implicit version of IMC in that it uses the information obtained from a series of IMC photon histories to improve the estimate for the end of time step material temperature during a time step. A better estimate of the end of time step material temperature allows for a more implicit estimate of other temperature-dependent quantities: opacity, heat capacity, Fleck factor (probability that a photon absorbed during a time step is not reemitted) and the Planckian emission source. We have verified the ITE IMC method against 0-D and 1-D analytic solutions and problems from the literature. These results are compared with traditional IMC. We perform an infinite medium stability analysis of ITE IMC and show that it is slightly more numerically stable than traditional IMC. We find that significantly larger time steps can be used with ITE IMC without violating the maximum principle, especially in problems with non-linear material properties. The ITE IMC method does however yield solutions with larger variance because each sub-step uses a different Fleck factor (even at equilibrium)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fourier-like Thermal Relaxation of Nanoscale Explosive Hot Spots

Hot spots are local regions of high temperature that are widely considered to govern explosive initiation. Hot spot dynamics rests on a delicate balance between heat generation due to chemical reactions and heat loss through thermal conduction, making accurate determinations of the conductivity under extreme conditions a key component of predictive explosive models. We develop here an approach to directly determine the thermal transport properties of explosive hot spots with realistic initial structures through a combination of molecular dynamics (MD) and diffusive heat equation (HEq) modeling. Effective thermal conductivity values are determined by fitting HEq models to MD predictions of long timescale hot spot relaxation. The approach is applied to model hot spots in the molecular crystalline explosive 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) for a range of shock strengths and two limiting cases for impact orientation. Isotropic and anisotropic HEq models yield similar results, despite TATB exhibiting some of the largest and most anisotropic thermal conductivity values for explosive near normal conditions. The conductivity is found to be a strong function of density, which parametrically captures dependence on temperature, pressure, and material state. The associated root-mean-square errors of the fitted HEq models are approximately 5% of MD predicted final equilibrium temperatures. Here, the conductivity values determined here for TATB hot spots are considerably larger than those used in a prior hot spot criticality study, which may significantly impact predictions for critical hot spot sizes. The approach provides a convenient foundation for determining the effective thermal conductivity for hot spot problems in other explosives and directly yields information on reasonable approximations that might be taken in higher-level models for those materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Efficient Reformulation of Solid Phase Diffusion in Electrochemical-Mechanical Coupled Models for Lithium-Ion Batteries: Effect of Intercalation Induced Stresses

Lithium-ion batteries are typically modeled using porous electrode theory coupled with various transport and reaction mechanisms with an appropriate discretization or approximation for the solid phase diffusion within the electrode particle. One of the major difficulties in simulating Li-ion battery models is the need for simulating solid-phase diffusion in the second radial dimension r within the particle. It increases the complexity of the model as well as the computation time/cost to a great extent. This is Particularly true for the inclusion of pressure induced diffusion inside particles experiencing volume change. A computationally efficient representation for solid-phase diffusion is discussed in this paper. The operating condition has a significant effect on the validity, accuracy, and efficiency of various approximations for the solid-phase transport governed by pressure induced diffusion. This paper introduces efficient methods for solid phase reformulation - (1) parabolic profile approach and (2) a mixed order finite difference method for approximating/representing solid-phase concentration variations within the active materials of porous electrodes for macroscopic models for lithium-ion batteries. (C) 2013 The Electrochemical Society. All rights reserved.

De, S↗

Triso Analysis Tool For Predictive Source Terms

Source term modeling for TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs, but few are available in the open literature. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that can be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. To meet this need, the TRISO Analysis Tool for Predictive Source terms (TRISO-ATOPS) was developed. This model calculates the release of the key safety-important fission products by diffusion through the kernel, silicon carbide and graphite based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system for removing fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. From this initial condition, the model calculates the fission product release for any transient temperature profile, and the fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional radiological dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy Advanced Gas Reactor TRISO fuel development program. The example cases in this work demonstrate the flexibility of the model

Stoyer, Benjamin [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗

The Fundamental Creep Behavior Model of Gr.91 Alloy by ICME Approach (Final Report)

The current project mainly focused on the fundamental creep cracking mechanism of the Grade 91 system during the operation conditions in the advanced technologies FE power plants and build the link among Composition-Processing Parameters-Phase Stability-Microstructure-Creep Resistance. A model based on computational thermodynamics and diffusion kinetics will be developed to provide guidance on how to improve the creep resistance of the alloy system. The PI mainly investigate the Gr.91 base alloy and weldment with the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach. The long-term goal of the proposed program is to develop a model for creep and fatigue resistant alloys with different elemental systems, compositions, and processing parameters of weldment and heat-treatment. In addition, new creep and fatigue resistant alloys are to be designed based on the predictions from the model. The computational as well as experimental results include three sections: 1) The compositional optimization and secondary phases evaluation regarding the creep resistance in Grade 91 steel through the CALPHAD approach. In this section, the formation of the critical secondary phases, M23C6, MX and Z-phase were well predicted based on many conditions like the temperature as well as compositions. Meanwhile, the role of different alloying elements was also considered as they will directly affect the formation of the secondary phases mentioned above based on the compositional evolution of the alloying elements. 2) An investigation of Creep Resistance in Grade 91 Steel through Computational Thermodynamics. We systematically considered the evolution of the four critical temperatures, Ac3, Ac1, the threshold of M23C6 and Z-phase, on basis of the computational approach. Meanwhile, the equilibrium cooling as well as Scheil simulations were also considered to perform further predictions based on the different cooling rates. 3) Creep lifetime and microstructural evolution of the Grade 91 steel. In this part, mainly experimental approach was performed on the real creep test from the beginning of the commercial Gr.91 alloys. The alloys were normalized, tempered, welded (Gleeble) and PWHT and finally subjected to the creep lifetime analyses. Finally, all the samples after each process were further characterized based on the OM, XRD and SEM technique to draw final conclusions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Benchmark analytical solutions for steady state high frequency broadband sound fields in three rectangular enclosures

Analytical solutions are presented for broadband sound fields in three rectangular enclosures with absorption applied on the floor and ceiling, rigid sidewalls, and a vertically oriented dipole source. The solutions are intended to serve as benchmarks that can be used to assess the performance of broadband techniques, particularly energy-based methods, in a relatively straightforward configuration with precisely specified boundary conditions. A broadband Helmholtz solution is developed using a frequency-by-frequency modal approach to determine the exact band averaged mean-square pressures along spatial trajectories within each enclosure. Due to the specific choice of enclosure configuration and absorption distribution, an approximate specular solution can be obtained through a summation of uncorrelated image sources. Comparisons between the band averaged Helmholtz solution and the uncorrelated image solution reveal excellent agreement for a wide range of absorption levels and improve the understanding of correlation effects in broadband sound fields. In conclusion, a boundary element solution with diffuse boundaries is also presented, which produces consistently higher mean-square pressures in comparison with the specular solution, emphasizing the careful attention that must be placed on correctly modeling reflecting boundary conditions and demonstrating the errors that can result from assuming a Lambertian surface.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Elucidating the role of Cr migration in Ni-Cr exposed to molten FLiNaK via multiscale characterization

Structural materials used in nuclear reactor environments are subjected to coupled extremes such as high temperature, irradiation, and corrosion which act in concert to degrade their functional performance. Connecting alloy microstructure such as grain boundaries, and accumulating point defects with corrosion attack and pore morphology is critical to understanding underlying mechanisms. We uncover the compositional variations and morphology at multiple length scales in corrosion-damaged Ni-Cr alloy after exposure to oxidants in molten fluoride salts. A complex network of dense corrosion pores is detected by surface-level SEM observations. The corrosion pores take on a 1-dimensional morphology and are enriched with Ni and depleted of Cr 1–5 µm from the pore surface. STEM-EDS and 4D-STEM strain maps acquired simultaneously highlight the local variations in composition and structure of a ≤ 200 nm Cr-rich layer identified from a cross-section taken at the bottom of an isolated corrosion pore between the Ni-Cr alloy matrix and the embedded salt. However, the absence of an observed interface between the Ni-Cr alloy matrix and the FCC-structured Cr-rich layer suggests that Cr plating from the salt did not transpire. These findings support a proposed Cr lattice diffusion mechanism rather than Cr-precipitation from the salt to accommodate temperature transient conditions during sample cooling. Through the development of a 1D phase field model, these results are rationalized by formation energies for the Ni- and Cr-oxidation into the molten salt. This study reveals the locally altered microstructure caused by high temperature corrosion in non-steady-state molten salt nuclear reactor environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Non-Invasive Electrode Impedance Estimation for Optimized Charge Profile Parameterization of Lithium-Ion Batteries

This work presents a non-invasive method for parameterizing a physically motivated equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion batteries using operando electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-domain data. The proposed model consists exclusively of linear circuit elements, enabling computationally efficient simulation and real-time implementation on battery management system chips. By integrating frequency- and time-domain measurements, the model accurately estimates internal states such as the negative electrode potential, achieving a root mean square error of 12.3 mV during fast charging validation. Parameterization requires only rate tests with sinusoidal perturbations at three different ambient temperatures, making the approach experimentally accessible. The model reveals key insights into battery behavior, including rate-dependent overpotentials primarily governed by charge transfer kinetics at the positive electrode, and temperature-dependent impedance contributions from both charge transfer and solid-state diffusion processes. Validation using reference electrodes confirms the model’s ability to detect lithium plating onset and reproduce impedance behavior across a wide range of operating conditions. The approach enables in situ optimization of fast charging profiles and lays the foundation for future extensions incorporating aging effects and plating dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Emergence of a nocturnal low-level jet from a broad baroclinic zone

An analytical model is presented for the generation of a Blackadar-like nocturnal low-level jet in a broad baroclinic zone. The flow is forced from below (flat ground) by a surface buoyancy gradient and from above (free atmosphere) by a constant pressure gradient force. Diurnally-varying mixing coefficients are specified to increase abruptly at sunrise and decrease abruptly at sunset. With attention restricted to a surface buoyancy that varies linearly with a horizontal coordinate, the Boussinesq-approximated equations of motion, thermal energy, and mass conservation reduce to a system of one-dimensional equations that can be solved analytically. Sensitivity tests with southerly jets suggest that (i) stronger jets are associated with larger decreases of the eddy viscosity at sunset (as in Blackadar theory), (ii) the nighttime surface buoyancy gradient has little impact on jet strength, and (iii) for pure baroclinic forcing (no free-atmosphere geostrophic wind), the nighttime eddy diffusivity has little impact on jet strength, but the daytime eddy diffusivity is very important and has a larger impact than the daytime eddy viscosity. The model was applied to a jet that developed in fair weather conditions over the Great Plains from southern Texas to northern South Dakota on 1 May 2020. The ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) for the afternoon prior to jet formation showed that a broad north-south-oriented baroclinic zone covered much of the region. The peak model-predicted winds were in good agreement with ERA5 winds and lidar data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) central facility in north-central Oklahoma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Method for Groundwater-Level Mapping and Monitoring-Well Network Optimization at Hanford

This report summarizes the initial results and outcomes of a physics-informed, data-driven groundwater level (GWL) mapping capability for the Hanford Site. GWL mapping at Hanford is typically conducted annually and requires a significant amount of computational and expert resources, and it does not allow assessment of the informational value of specific monitoring wells. The proposed method produces spatially and temporally resolved fields consistent with sparse, irregularly sampled, and nonuniformly distributed well measurements. Implemented successfully, this capability will allow rapid mapping of groundwater levels and provide an opportunity to optimize monitoring activities (both location and sampling frequency) based on data information value evaluation. The approach integrates a diffusion-based generative model – trained on MODFLOW simulation data from the Plateau-to-River (P2R) model – with score-based data assimilation (SDA), allowing observation-conditioned mapping without retraining for each monitoring-network layout.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Irradiance on the upper and lower modules of a two-high bifacial tracking system

We examine the illumination incident to each of the modules in a two-high bifacial tracking photovoltaic system. Experiments and simulations indicate that the upper module receives more diffuse sunlight, whereas either the upper or lower module can receive more direct sunlight depending on the configuration and conditions. We use a view-factor model to illustrate how the fraction of illumination received by the upper and lower modules depends on albedo, the sun’s position in the sky, module tilt, and the fraction of direct sunlight. We also use ray tracing to illustrate how edge effects can significantly change the amount of sunlight reaching the upper and lower modules; these results underscore the complications of using measurements from small test facilities to predict the behavior of large PV fields.

McIntosh, Keith↗

A Two-Fluid Study of Oblique Tearing Modes and 3-D Magnetic Reconnection

The goals and highlights of this research are to: 1) Undertake two-fluid simulations of oblique tearing modes with $m_{i}/m_{e}$ = 100 and 1836, and $b_g$ ≤ 10 with further bridging the fluid and kinetic models and linear growth rates agree with kinetic theory for $b_g$ ≤ 1; 2) 3-D simulations of a doubly-periodic Harris Sheet with $m_{i}/m_{e}$ = 100 and $b_g$ = 2:5 that features current layer splits into multiple ~ de-scale diffusion regions, an amplification of current by 2x, and similar features to kinetic simulations; 3) Influence of boundary conditions: periodic vs. line-tied; and 4) Address how much of the kinetic nature of MR can be captured by a two-fluid model. (A fluid model requires dissipation.)

58 GEOSCIENCES↗