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At least 397 records · Page 22

Using Multi-scale Modeling System to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation, Aerosols, Radiation and Land Surface

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 sq km in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. A review of developments, improvements and applications of cloud models (GCE and WRF) at Goddard will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, aerosols and land will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗

A Simple Model for the Cloud Adjacency Effect and the Apparent Bluing of Aerosols Near Clouds

In determining aerosol-cloud interactions, the properties of aerosols must be characterized in the vicinity of clouds. Numerous studies based on satellite observations have reported that aerosol optical depths increase with increasing cloud cover. Part of the increase comes from the humidification and consequent growth of aerosol particles in the moist cloud environment, but part comes from 3D cloud-radiative transfer effects on the retrieved aerosol properties. Often, discerning whether the observed increases in aerosol optical depths are artifacts or real proves difficult. The paper provides a simple model that quantifies the enhanced illumination of cloud-free columns in the vicinity of clouds that are used in the aerosol retrievals. This model is based on the assumption that the enhancement in the cloud-free column radiance comes from enhanced Rayleigh scattering that results from the presence of the nearby clouds. The enhancement in Rayleigh scattering is estimated using a stochastic cloud model to obtain the radiative flux reflected by broken clouds and comparing this flux with that obtained with the molecules in the atmosphere causing extinction, but no scattering.

Marshak, Alexander↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Tao, W. K.↗

Summary of atmospheric characteristics of days with inland penetrating sea breezes from 2015 to 2021

Abstract Sea breezes penetrate inland more than 100 km. Using 7 years of meteorological observations, we have identified 470 cases of deep inland (>100 km) penetrating sea breezes at the Savannah River Site between March and October (27% of days) of 2015–2021. We compared measurements of temperature, dewpoint temperature, incoming solar radiation, cloud fraction, and lightning on days of sea breeze initiation, the day after the sea breeze passage, and all other nonsea breeze (NSB) days for these 8 months over the 7 years. Days of sea breeze initiation were found to have lower cloud fraction, higher temperature, and greater incoming solar radiation compared with NSB days. Variations occurred by time of year as days after the sea breeze passage were found to have higher dewpoint temperature than NSB days in the spring. Lightning density measurements indicated that residual sea breeze conditions could drive earlier initiation of deep convection on days following the sea breeze than normal non sea breeze days. This data set provides a 7‐year record of sea breezes which can be leveraged for future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗

The role of turbulent fluctuations in aerosol activation and cloud formation

Aerosol indirect effects are one of the leading contributors to cloud radiative properties relevant to climate. Aerosol particles become cloud droplets when the ambient relative humidity (saturation ratio) exceeds a critical value, which depends on the particle size and chemical composition. In the traditional formulation of this problem, only average, uniform saturation ratios are considered. Using experiments and theory, we examine the effects of fluctuations, produced by turbulence. Our measurements, from a multiphase, turbulent cloud chamber, show a clear transition from a regime in which the mean saturation ratio dominates to one in which the fluctuations determine cloud properties. The laboratory measurements demonstrate cloud formation in mean-subsaturated conditions (i.e., relative humidity <100%) in the fluctuation-dominant activation regime. The theoretical framework developed to interpret these measurements predicts a transition from a mean- to a fluctuation-dominated regime, based on the relative values of the mean and standard deviation of the environmental saturation ratio and the critical saturation ratio at which aerosol particles activate or become droplets. The theory is similar to the concept of stochastic condensation and can be used in the context of the atmosphere to explore the conditions under which droplet activation is driven by fluctuations as opposed to mean supersaturation. Overall, it provides a basis for future development of cloud droplet activation parameterizations that go beyond the internally homogeneous parcel calculations that have been used in the past.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Night and Day: The Opacity of Clouds Measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA)

The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) [l] on the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft ranged to clouds over the course of nearly two Mars years [2] using an active laser ranging system. While ranging to the surface, the instrument was also able to measure the product of the surface reflectivity with the two-way atmospheric transmission at 1064 nm. Furthermore, the reflectivity has now been mapped over seasonal cycles using the passive radiometric capability built into MOLA [3]. Combining these measurements, the column opacity may be inferred. MOLA uniquely provides these measurements both night and day. This study examines the pronounced nighttime opacity of the aphelion season tropical water ice clouds, and the indiscernibly low opacity of the southern polar winter clouds. The water ice clouds (Figure 1) do not themselves trigger the altimeter but have measured opacities tau > 1.5 and are temporally and spatially correlated with temperature anomalies predicted by a Mars Global Circulation Model (MGCM) that incorporates cloud radiative effects [4]. The south polar CO2 ice clouds trigger the altimeter with a very high backscatter cross-section over a thickness of 3-9 m and are vertically dispersed over several km, but their total column opacities lie well below the MOLA measurement limit of tau = 0.7. These clouds correspond to regions of supercooled atmosphere that may form either very large specularly reflecting particles [2] or very compact, dense concentrations (>5x10(exp 6)/cu m) of 100-p particles

Neumann, G. A.↗

Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain-Fritsch Scheme

Efforts to improve the prediction accuracy of high resolution (1-10 km) surface precipitation distribution and variability are of vital importance to local aspects of air pollution, wet deposition, and regional climate. However, precipitation biases and errors can occur at these spatial scales due to uncertainties in initial meteorological conditions and/or grid-scale cloud microphysics schemes. In particular, it is still unclear to what extent a subgrid-scale convection scheme could be modified to bring in scale-awareness for improving high-resolution short-term precipitation forecasts in the WRF model. To address these issues, we introduced scale-aware parameterized cloud dynamics for high-resolution forecasts by making several changes to the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model. These changes include subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interactions, a dynamic adjustment timescale, impacts of cloud updraft mass fluxes on grid-scale vertical velocity, and lifting condensation level-based entrainment methodology that includes scale dependency. A series of 48-hour retrospective forecasts using a combination of three treatments of convection (KF, updated KF, and the use of no cumulus parameterization), two cloud microphysics schemes and two types of initial condition datasets were performed over the U.S. southern Great Plains on 9- and 3-km grid spacings during the summers of 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that (1) the source of initial conditions play a key role in high-resolution precipitation forecasting, and (2) our updated KF scheme greatly alleviates the excessive precipitation at 9-km grid spacing and improves results at 3-km grid spacing as well. Overall, we found that the updated KF scheme incorporated into a high-resolution model does provide better forecasts for precipitation location and intensity.

convective parameterization↗

Long-Term Trends in Aerosols, Low Clouds, and Large-scale Meteorology over the Western North Atlantic from 2003 to 2020

A continuous decrease of aerosol over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) on decadal timescales provides a long-term experiment to evaluate how other natural and anthropogenic processes affect the manifestation of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region. Furthermore, the WNAO is a natural laboratory with diverse aerosol sources, marine boundary layer clouds that are more variable than marine stratocumulus deck regions, and unique flow regimes set up by the Gulf Stream and semi-permanent Bermuda High. We investigate how satellite-retrieved macrophysical and microphysical properties of low clouds and the surface shortwave irradiance changed from 2003 to 2020, in tandem with this aerosol decrease. The decadal changes in large-scale meteorology relating to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined. We find no significant changes in low-cloud fraction but a widespread reduction in low-cloud optical depth attributed to fewer and larger cloud droplets with almost no change in cloud liquid water path. Despite robust signals in low-cloud optical properties together with aerosol decrease, a corresponding increase in the surface shortwave irradiance trends, also called surface brightening, is lacking. This absence of brightening is potentially due to concomitant changes found in large-scale meteorology associated with NAO— a Bermuda High strengthening, sea surface warming, and atmospheric moistening— as well as an increase in high cloud fraction that can counteract the surface brightening. Ultimately, our findings suggest that spatial patterns in the decadal meteorological variability, likely set up by NAO, contribute more to the surface cloud radiative effect over the WNAO than aerosol-cloud interactions.

J Minnie Park↗

Assessment of Global Cloud Datasets from Satellites: Project and Database Initiated by the GEWEX Radiation Panel

Clouds cover about 70% of the Earth's surface and play a dominant role in the energy and water cycle of our planet. Only satellite observations provide a continuous survey of the state of the atmosphere over the whole globe and across the wide range of spatial and temporal scales that comprise weather and climate variability. Satellite cloud data records now exceed more than 25 years in length. However, climatologies compiled from different satellite datasets can exhibit systematic biases. Questions therefore arise as to the accuracy and limitations of the various sensors. The Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud Assessment, initiated in 2005 by the GEWEX Radiation Panel, provided the first coordinated intercomparison of publically available, standard global cloud products (gridded, monthly statistics) retrieved from measurements of multi-spectral imagers (some with multiangle view and polarization capabilities), IR sounders and lidar. Cloud properties under study include cloud amount, cloud height (in terms of pressure, temperature or altitude), cloud radiative properties (optical depth or emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase and bulk microphysical properties (effective particle size and water path). Differences in average cloud properties, especially in the amount of high-level clouds, are mostly explained by the inherent instrument measurement capability for detecting and/or identifying optically thin cirrus, especially when overlying low-level clouds. The study of long-term variations with these datasets requires consideration of many factors. A monthly, gridded database, in common format, facilitates further assessments, climate studies and the evaluation of climate models.

Stubenrauch, C. J.↗

The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research

The use of earth radiation budget (ERB) data for climate and general circulation research is studied. ERB measurements obtained in the 1960's and 1970's have provided data on planetary brightness, planetary global energy balances, the greenhouse effect, solar insolation, meridional heat transport by oceans and atmospheres, regional forcing, climate feedback processes, and the computation of albedo values in low latitudes. The role of clouds in governing climate, in influencing the general circulation, and in determining the sensitivity of climate to external perturbations needs to be researched; a procedure for analyzing the ERB data, which will address these problems, is described. The approach involves estimating the clear-sky fluxes from the high spatial resolution scanner measurement and defining a cloud radiative forcing; the global average of the sum of the solar and long-wave cloud forcing yields the net radiative effect of clouds on the climate.

Ramanathan, V.↗

Direct Observations of Excess Solar Absorption by Clouds

Aircraft measurements of solar flux in the cloudy tropical atmosphere reveal that solar absorption by clouds is anomalously large when compared to theoretical estimates. The ratio of cloud forcing at an altitude of 20 kilometers to that at the surface is 1.58 rather than 1.0 as predicted by models. These results were derived from a cloud radiation experiment in which identical instrumentation was deployed on coordinated stacked aircraft. These findings indicate a significant difference between measurements and theory and imply that the interaction between clouds and solar radiation is poorly understood.

Pilewskie, Peter↗

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols: Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing - Part 1

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of −2.0Wm(exp−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0Wm−2), nitrate (−0.2Wm(exp−2), organic carbon (−0.2Wm(exp−2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp−2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

climate change↗

Approaches of comparison for clear-sky radiative fluxes from general circulation models with Earth Radiation Budget Experiment data

In order to compare the clear-sky greenhouse effect and cloud-radiative forcing from general circulation models with Earth Radiation Budget Experiments (ERBE) data, it is necessary to calculate the general circulation model (GCM) clear-sky radiative fluxes in a way consistent with ERBE. This study discusses problems associated with the available methods for clear-sky radiative flux computations in GCMs and proposes a new approach, which uses a statistical relationship between the grid cloud cover and the availability of ERBE clear-sky measurement, established from ERBE pixel data, to sample the model radiative fluxes. Calculations with version 2 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model using observed sea surface temperature (SST) show good agreement of clear-sky sampling from the proposed method with ERBE sampling. It is also shown that large improvements are achieved in the spatial variability of the model clear-sky radiative fluxes over ocean, with reference to ERBE, by using the new clear-sky sampling method.

Zhang, M. H.↗

A Climatology of Midlatitude Continental Clouds from the ARM SGP Central Facility: Cloud Fraction and Radiative Forcing - Part II

Data collected at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) central facility are analyzed for determining the variability of cloud fraction and radiative forcing at several temporal scales between January 1997 and December 2002. Cloud fractions are estimated for total cloud cover and for single-layer low (0-3 km), middle (3-6 km), and high clouds (greater than 6 km) using ARM SGP ground-based paired lidar-radar measurements. Shortwave (SW), longwave (LW), and net cloud radiative forcings (CRF) are derived from up- and down-looking standard precision spectral pyranometers and precision infrared radiometer measurements. The annual averages of total, and single-layer, nonoverlapped low, middle and high cloud fractions are 0.49, 0.11, 0.03, and 0.17, respectively. Total and low cloud amounts were greatest from December through March and least during July and August. The monthly variation of high cloud amount is relatively small with a broad maximum from May to August. During winter, total cloud cover varies diurnally with a small amplitude, mid-morning maximum and early evening minimum, and during summer it changes by more than 0.14 over the daily cycle with a pronounced early evening minimum. The diurnal variations of mean single-layer cloud cover change with season and cloud height. Annual averages of all-sky, total, and single-layer high, middle, and low LW CRFs are 21.4, 40.2, 16.7, 27.2, and 55.0 Wm(sup -2), respectively; and their SW CRFs are -41.5, -77.2, -37.0, -47.0, and -90.5 Wm(sup -2). Their net CRFs range from -20 to -37 Wm(sup -2). For all-sky, total, and low clouds, the maximum negative net CRFs of -40.1, -70, and -69.5 Wm(sup -2), occur during April; while the respective minimum values of -3.9, -5.7, and -4.6 Wm(sup -2), are found during December. July is the month having maximum negative net CRF of -46.2 Wm(sup -2) for middle clouds, and May has the maximum value of -45.9 Wm(sup -2) for high clouds. An uncertainty analysis demonstrates that the calculated CRFs are not significantly affected by the difference between clear-sky and cloudy conditions. A more comprehensive cloud fraction study from both surface and satellite observations will follow.

Dong, Xiquan↗

Low cloud investigations for project FIRE: Island studies of cloud properties, surface radiation, and boundary layer dynamics. A simulation of the reflectivity over a stratocumulus cloud deck by the Monte Carlo method

The radiation field over a broken stratocumulus cloud deck is simulated by the Monte Carlo method. We conducted four experiments to investigate the main factor for the observed shortwave reflectively over the FIRE flight 2 leg 5, in which reflectivity decreases almost linearly from the cloud center to cloud edge while the cloud top height and the brightness temperature remain almost constant through out the clouds. From our results, the geometry effect, however, did not contribute significantly to what has been observed. We found that the variation of the volume extinction coefficient as a function of its relative position in the cloud affects the reflectivity efficiently. Additional check of the brightness temperature of each experiment also confirms this conclusion. The cloud microphysical data showed some interesting features. We found that the cloud droplet spectrum is nearly log-normal distributed when the clouds were solid. However, whether the shift of cloud droplet spectrum toward the larger end is not certain. The decrease of number density from cloud center to cloud edges seems to have more significant effects on the optical properties.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

Cirrus parameterization from the FIRE ER-2 observations

Primary goals for the FIRE field experiments were validation of satellite cloud retrievals and study of cloud radiation parameters. The radiometers and lidar observations which were acquired from the NASA ER-2 high altitude aircraft during the FIRE cirrus field study may be applied to derive quantities which would be applicable for comparison to satellite retrievals and to define the cirrus radiative characteristics. The analysis involves parameterization of the vertical cloud distribution and relative radiance effects. An initial case study from the 28 Oct. 1986 cirrus experiment has been carried out, and results from additional experiment days are to be reported. The observations reported are for 1 day. Analysis of the many other cirrus observation cases from the FIRE study show variability of results.

Spinhirne, James D.↗