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At least 397 records · Page 22

An Examination of the Impact of Grid Spacing on WRF Simulations of Wintertime Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic United States

A large set of deterministic and ensemble forecasts was produced to identify the optimal spacing for forecasting U.S. East Coast snowstorms. WRF forecasts were produced on cloud-allowing (~1-km grid spacing) and convection-allowing (3–4 km) grids, and compared against forecasts with parameterized convection (>~10 km). Performance diagrams were used to evaluate 19 deterministic forecasts from the winter of 2013–14. Ensemble forecasts of five disruptive snowstorms spanning the years 2015–18 were evaluated using various methods to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. While deterministic forecasts using cloud-allowing grids were not better than convection-allowing forecasts, both had lower bias and higher success ratios than forecasts with parameterized convection. All forecasts were underdispersive. Nevertheless, forecasts on the higher-resolution grids were more reliable than those with parameterized convection. Forecasts on the cloud-allowing grid were best able to discriminate areas that received heavy snow and those that did not, while the forecasts with parameterized convection were least able to do so. It is recommended to use convection-resolving and (if computationally possible) to use cloud-allowing forecast grids when predicting East Coast winter storms.

Snowstorms↗

An overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) project: aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the southeast Atlantic basin

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth’s biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) investigation with three intensive observation periods designed to study key atmospheric processes that determine the climate impacts of these aerosols. During the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring (June–October), aerosol particles reaching 3–5 km in altitude are transported westward over the southeast Atlantic, where they interact with one of the largest subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain in part due to a scarcity of observational constraints on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as due to the parameterized treatment of physical processes. Three ORACLES deployments by the NASA P-3 aircraft in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018 (totaling ~ 350 science flight hours), augmented by the deployment of the NASA ER-2 aircraft for remote sensing in September 2016 (totaling ~ 100 science flight hours), were intended to help fill this observational gap. ORACLES focuses on three fundamental science themes centered on the climate effects of African BB aerosols: (a) direct aerosol radiative effects, (b) effects of aerosol absorption on atmospheric circulation and clouds, and (c) aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions. This paper summarizes the ORACLES science objectives, describes the project implementation, provides an overview of the flights and measurements in each deployment, and highlights the integrative modeling efforts from cloud to global scales to address science objectives. Significant new findings on the vertical structure of BB aerosol physical and chemical properties, chemical aging, cloud condensation nuclei, rain and precipitation statistics, and aerosol indirect effects are emphasized, but their detailed descriptions are the subject of separate publications. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project and the dataset it produced.

Jens Redemann↗

Effects of cumulus entrainment and multiple cloud types on a January global climate model simulation

An improved version of the GISS Model II cumulus parameterization designed for long-term climate integrations is used to study the effects of entrainment and multiple cloud types on the January climate simulation. Instead of prescribing convective mass as a fixed fraction of the cloud base grid-box mass, it is calculated based on the closure assumption that the cumulus convection restores the atmosphere to a neutral moist convective state at cloud base. This change alone significantly improves the distribution of precipitation, convective mass exchanges, and frequencies in the January climate. The vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere exhibits quasi-equilibrium behavior when this closure is used, even though there is no explicit constraint applied above cloud base.

Yao, Mao-Sung↗

Florida Thunderstorms: A Faucet of Reactive Nitrogen to the Upper Troposphere

During the NASA Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) enhanced mixing ratios of nitric oxide were measured in the anvils of thunderstorms and in clear air downwind of storm systems on flights of a Wl3-57F high-altitude aircraft. Mixing ratios greater than l0 - 20 times background were readily observed over distances of 25-120 km due to lightning activity. In many of the Florida storms deposition of NO occurred up to near the tropopause but major deposition usually occurred 1 - 2 km below the tropopause, or mostly within the visible anvil volume formed prior to storm decay. Observations from two storms of very different anvil size and electrical activity allowed estimates of the total mass of NO, vented to the middle and upper troposphere. Using the cloud-to ground (CG) flash accumulations from the National Lightning Detection Network, climatological intra-cloud (IC) to CG ratios, and assuming that CG and IC flashes were of equivalent efficiency for NO production, the ranges of production per flash for a moderate-sized and a large storm were (0.51 - 1.0) x l0(exp 26) and (2.3 - 3.1) x 10(exp 26) molecules NO/flash, respectively. Using the recently determined average global flash rate of 44 8, a gross extrapolation of these two storms to represent possible global annual production rates yield 1.6 - 3.2 and 7.3 - 9.9 Tg(N)/yr, respectively. If the more usual assumption is made that IC efficiency is l/l0th that of CG activity, the ranges of production for the moderate-sized and large storm were (1.3 - 2.7) x l0(exp 26) and (6.0 - 8.1) x l0(exp 26) molecules NO/CG flash, respectively. The estimates from the large storm may be high because there is indirect evidence that the IC/CG ratio was larger than would be derived from climatology. These two storms and others studied did not have flash rates that scaled as approx. H(sup 5) where H is the cloud top altitude. The observed CG flash accumulations and NO(x) mass production estimate for the month of July over the Florida area were compared with a representative 3D global Chemistry-Transport Model (CTMJ that uses the Price et al. lightning parameterization. For two land grid points representing the Florida peninsula the model compared well with the observations: CG flash rates were low by only a factor of approx. 2. When the model grid points included the coastal regions of Florida the flash accumulations were lower than observed by a factor of 3.4 - 4.6. It is recommended that models using the Price et al. parameterization allow any global coastal grid point to maintain the land rather than the marine flash rate parameterization. The convection in this CTM underestimated the actual cloud top heights over Florida by 1 - 2 km and thus the total lightning flash rates and the altitude range of reactive nitrogen deposition. Broad scale (20 - 120 km) median mixing ratios of NO within anvils over Florida were significantly larger than in storms previously investigated over Colorado and New Mexico.

Ridley, B.↗

Improvements of an ice-phase microphysics parameterization for use in numerical simulations of tropical convection

It is important to properly simulate the extent and ice water content of tropical anvil clouds in numerical models that explicitly include cloud formation because of the significant effects that these clouds have on the radiation budget. For this reason, a commonly used bulk ice-phase microphysics parameterization was modified to more realistically simulate some of the microphysical processes that occur in tropical anvil clouds. Cloud ice growth by the Bergeron process and the associated formation of snow were revised. The characteristics of graupel were also modified in accord with a previous study. Numerical simulations of a tropical squall line demonstrate that the amount of cloud ice and the extent of anvil clouds are increased to more realistic values by the first two changes.

Krueger, Steven K.↗

Development of Two-Moment Cloud Microphysics for Liquid and Ice Within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5)

This work presents the development of a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme within the version 5 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5). The scheme includes the implementation of a comprehensive stratiform microphysics module, a new cloud coverage scheme that allows ice supersaturation and a new microphysics module embedded within the moist convection parameterization of GEOS-5. Comprehensive physically-based descriptions of ice nucleation, including homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and liquid droplet activation are implemented to describe the formation of cloud particles in stratiform clouds and convective cumulus. The effect of preexisting ice crystals on the formation of cirrus clouds is also accounted for. A new parameterization of the subgrid scale vertical velocity distribution accounting for turbulence and gravity wave motion is developed. The implementation of the new microphysics significantly improves the representation of liquid water and ice in GEOS-5. Evaluation of the model shows agreement of the simulated droplet and ice crystal effective and volumetric radius with satellite retrievals and in situ observations. The simulated global distribution of supersaturation is also in agreement with observations. It was found that when using the new microphysics the fraction of condensate that remains as liquid follows a sigmoidal increase with temperature which differs from the linear increase assumed in most models and is in better agreement with available observations. The performance of the new microphysics in reproducing the observed total cloud fraction, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing, and total precipitation is similar to the operational version of GEOS-5 and in agreement with satellite retrievals. However the new microphysics tends to underestimate the coverage of persistent low level stratocumulus. Sensitivity studies showed that the simulated cloud properties are robust to moderate variation in cloud microphysical parameters. However significant sensitivity in ice cloud properties was found to variation in the dispersion of the ice crystal size distribution and the critical size for ice autoconversion. The implementation of the new microphysics leads to a more realistic representation of cloud processes in GEOS-5 and allows the linkage of cloud properties to aerosol emissions.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗

An eight-month climatology of marine stratocumulus cloud fraction, albedo, and integrated liquid water

As part of the FIRE/Extended Time Observations (ETO) program, extended time observations were made at San Nicolas Island (SNI) from March to October, 1987. Hourly averages of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, solar irradiance, and downward longwave irradiance were recorded. The radiation sensors were standard Eppley pyranometers (shortwave) and pyrgeometers (longwave). The SNI data were processed in several ways to deduce properties of the stratocumulus covered marine boundary layer (MBL). For example, from the temperature and humidity the lifting condensation level, which is an estimate of the height of the cloud bottom, can be computed. A combination of longwave irradiance statistics can be used to estimate fractional cloud cover. An analysis technique used to estimate the integrated cloud liquid water content (W) and the cloud albedo from the measured solar irradiance is also described. In this approach, the cloud transmittance is computed by dividing the irradiance measured at some time by a clear sky value obtained at the same hour on a cloudless day. From the transmittance and the zenith angle, values of cloud albedo and W are computed using the radiative transfer parameterizations of Stephens (1978). These analysis algorithms were evaluated with 17 days of simultaneous and colocated mm-wave (20.6 and 31.65 GHz) radiometer measurements of W and lidar ceilometer measurements of cloud fraction and cloudbase height made during the FIRE IFO. The algorithms are then applied to the entire data set to produce a climatology of these cloud properties for the eight month period.

Fairall, C. W.↗

Potential Link Between Ice Nucleation and Climate Model Spread in Arctic Amplification

Arctic amplification (AA) is simulated by all global climate models, however the spread in the degree of projected warming is large and the underlying mechanisms driving it are poorly understood. The impact of the temperature dependence of immersion freezing on cloud feedbacks and AA is studied using NASA's GEOS-5 model. Parameterizations that exhibit low ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations in the high Arctic during summer are found to weaken the cloud-phase feedback. This allows sunlight to readily melt sea-ice in the summer, which decreases the stability of the lower troposphere, causing a decrease in wintertime cloud fraction over open ocean. Arctic amplification was found to span from ∼1.4 to >2.6, which spans 30% of the spread in AA in the coupled model intercomparison project models, depending on the temperature dependence of immersion freezing. These results suggest that summertime INP concentrations may provide an observational constraint on AA.

Ice Nucleation↗

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for their utility in gauging model performance and QPF variability.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Updraft Dynamics and Microphysics: On the Added Value of the Cumulus Thermal Reference Frame in Simulations of Aerosol–Deep Convection Interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether or under what conditions a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using two different reference frames: static cloudy-updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy-updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy-updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy-updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

Daniel Hernandez-Deckers↗

On the remote sensing of cloud properties from satellite infrared sounder data

A method for remote sensing of cloud parameters by using infrared sounder data has been developed on the basis of the parameterized infrared transfer equation applicable to cloudy atmospheres. The method is utilized for the retrieval of the cloud height, amount, and emissivity in 11 micro m region. Numerical analyses and retrieval experiments have been carried out by utilizing the synthetic sounder data for the theoretical study. The sensitivity of the numerical procedures to the measurement and instrument errors are also examined. The retrieved results are physically discussed and numerically compared with the model atmospheres. Comparisons reveal that the recovered cloud parameters agree reasonably well with the pre-assumed values. However, for cases when relatively thin clouds and/or small cloud fractional cover within a field of view are present, the recovered cloud parameters show considerable fluctuations. Experiments on the proposed algorithm are carried out utilizing High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS/2) data of NOAA 6 and TIROS-N. Results of experiments show reasonably good comparisons with the surface reports and GOES satellite images.

Yeh, H. Y. M.↗

Lidar observations of mixed layer dynamics - Tests of parameterized entrainment models of mixed layer growth rate

Ground based lidar measurements of the atmospheric mixed layer depth, the entrainment zone depth and the wind speed and wind direction were used to test various parameterized entrainment models of mixed layer growth rate. Six case studies under clear air convective conditions over flat terrain in central Illinois are presented. It is shown that surface heating alone accounts for a major portion of the rise of the mixed layer on all days. A new set of entrainment model constants was determined which optimized height predictions for the dataset. Under convective conditions, the shape of the mixed layer height prediction curves closely resembled the observed shapes. Under conditions when significant wind shear was present, the shape of the height prediction curve departed from the data suggesting deficiencies in the parameterization of shear production. Development of small cumulus clouds on top of the layer is shown to affect mixed layer depths in the afternoon growth phase.

Boers, R.↗

Differential rotation in a solar-driven quasi-axisymmetric circulation

The concept of a quasi-axisymmetric circulation is used to explore the global scale dynamics of planetary atmospheres. A numerical circulation model applicable to Jupiter is presented, and an analytical study is performed elucidating the conditions leading to differential rotation in an atmosphere which is convectively unstable. A linear system forced by solar differential heating is considered, with nonlinear effects arising from advection being represented in the form of eddy diffusion. An empirical, latitudinal spectrum of the observed zonal wind field on Jupiter is discussed. Numerical solutions are presented which reveal banded wind fields with alternating and equatorial zonal jets and a multicellular Ferrel-Thomson meridional circulation consistent with the observed cloud striations on Jupiter. The vertical derivatives are parameterized to construct a simplified one-layer model.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Utilization of satellite-derived cloud cover to improve the estimation of latent heat release in a winter extratropical cyclone

A simple scheme for utilizing satellite cloud pattern information to improve the estimation of parameterized stable and convective latent heat release is proposed and tested for an extratropical cyclone occurring over the United States during January 9-11, 1975. Calculations are done over the standard North American rawinsonde data region and over a sparse data region simulated by ignoring one-third of the original rawinsonde stations. Results indicate 15 percent and 30 percent improvements in latent heating estimates derived from the total and sparse data sets, respectively. A larger improvement was found using the sparse data set because the parameterized latent heat release estimates obtained using these data were poorer than those obtained using the total data set.

Lin, S.-J.↗

Estimating integrated cloud liquid water from extended time observations of solar irradiance

An analysis technique used to estimate the integrated liquid water content (LWC) from the measured solar irradiance is described. The cloud transmittance is computed by dividing the irradiance measured at some time by a clear sky value obtained at the same time on a cloudless day. From the transmittance and the zenith angle, the cloud LWC is computed using the radiative transfer parameterizations of Stephens et al., (1984). The results are compared with 17 days of mm-wave (20.6 and 31.65 GHz) radiometer measurements made during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Intensive Field Observation (IFO) in July of 1987.

Fairall, C. W.↗

Spatial and temporal variability of the extent of chemically processed stratospheric air

Simulations of the spatial and temporal variability of the extent of chemically processed air in the Arctic stratosphere have been carried out using a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model for the winters of 1979 and 1989. Chemically processed air is identified in the model as that in which the amounts of hydrogen chloride (HCl) calculated with parameterized loss for conditions appropriate to polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation are substantially smaller than those calculated in a model with gas phase chemistry only. It is seen that chemically processed air may be identified over much of the Arctic lower stratosphere from early January to late February, with HCl depletions being larger in 1989 than in 1979. Near the latitude of the Arctic circle, there is important spatial and temporal variability in the extent of chemically processed air. There is some evidence for transport to midlatitudes of processed air during these winters, but the HCl reductions are much smaller and more sporadic than those near the pole. At 62 and 42N, processed air is calculated to occur preferentially over the longitude regions from 60-120E and 270-330E.

Kaye, Jack A.↗

An Assessment of the Radiative Effects of Ice Supersaturation Based on in Situ Observations

We use aircraft observations combined with the reanalysis data to investigate the radiative effects of ice supersaturation (ISS). Our results show that although the excess water vapor over ice saturation itself has relatively small radiative effects, mistaking it as ice crystals in climate models would lead to considerable impacts: on average, +2.49 W/m(exp 2) change in the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiation, -2.7 W/m(exp 2) change in surface radiation, and 1.47 K/d change in heating rates. The radiative effects of ISS generally increase with the magnitudes of supersaturation. However, there is a strong dependence on the preexisting ice water path, which can even change the sign of the TOA radiative effect. It is therefore important to consider coexistence between ISS and ice clouds and to validate their relationship in the parameterizations of ISS in climate models.

Tan, Xiaoxiao↗

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

cumulus schemes↗