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At least 397 records · Page 22

Total ecosystem carbon stocks at the marine-terrestrial interface: Blue carbon of the Pacific Northwest Coast, United States

The coastal ecosystems of temperate North America provide a variety of ecosystem services including high rates of carbon sequestration. Yet, little data exist for the carbon stocks of major tidal wetland types in the Pacific Northwest, United States. We quantified the total ecosystem carbon stocks (TECS) in seagrass, emergent marshes, and forested tidal wetlands, occurring along increasing elevation and decreasing salinity gradients. The TECS included the total aboveground carbon stocks and the entire soil profile (to as deep as 3 m). TECS significantly increased along the elevation and salinity gradients: 217 ± 60 Mg C/ha for seagrass (low elevation/high salinity), 417 ± 70 Mg C/ha for low marsh, 551 ± 47 Mg C/ha for high marsh, and 1,064 ± 38 Mg C/ha for tidal forest (high elevation/low salinity). Soil carbon stocks accounted for >98% of TECS in the seagrass and marsh communities and 78% in the tidal forest. Soils in the 0–100 cm portion of the profile accounted for only 48%–53% of the TECS in seagrasses and marshes and 34% of the TECS in tidal forests. Thus, the commonly applied limit defining TECS to a 100 cm depth would greatly underestimate both carbon stocks and potential greenhouse gas emissions from land-use conversion. The large carbon stocks coupled with other ecosystem services suggest value in the conservation and restoration of temperate zone tidal wetlands through climate change mitigation strategies. However, the findings suggest that long-term sea level rise effects such as tidal inundation and increased porewater salinity will likely decrease ecosystem carbon stocks in the absence of upslope wetland migration buffer zones.

Kauffman, J Boone↗

Mountain biodiversity and ecosystem functions: interplay between geology and contemporary environments

Although biodiversity and ecosystem functions are strongly shaped by contemporary environments, such as climate and local biotic and abiotic attributes, relatively little is known about how they depend on long-term geological processes. Here, along a 3000-m elevational gradient with tectonic faults on the Tibetan Plateau (that is, Galongla Mountain in Medog County, China), we study the joint effects of geological and contemporary environments on biological communities, such as the diversity and community composition of plants and soil bacteria, and ecosystem functions. We find that these biological communities and ecosystem functions generally show consistent elevational breakpoints at 2000–2800 m, which coincide with Indus-Yalu suture zone fault and are similar to the elevational breakpoints of soil bacteria on another mountain range 1000 km away. Mean annual temperature, soil pH and moisture are the primary contemporary determinants of biodiversity and ecosystem functions, which support previous findings. However, compared with the models excluding geological processes, inclusion of geological effects, such as parent rock and weathering, increases 67.9 and 35.9% of the explained variations in plant and bacterial communities, respectively. Such inclusion increases 27.6% of the explained variations in ecosystem functions. The geological processes thus provide additional links to ecosystem properties, which are prominent but show divergent effects on biodiversity and ecosystem functions: parent rock and weathering exert considerable direct effects on biodiversity, whereas indirectly influence ecosystem functions via interactions with biodiversity and contemporary environments. Thus, the integration of geological processes with environmental gradients could enhance our understanding of biodiversity and, ultimately, ecosystem functioning across different climatic zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radionuclide Transport Simulations Supporting Proposed Borehole Waste Disposal in Israel

A scientific collaboration between the U.S. and Israel is underway to assess the suitability of a potential site for subsurface radioactive waste disposal in the Negev Desert, Israel. The Negev Desert has several favorable attributes for geologic disposal, including an arid climate, a deep vadose zone, interlayered low-permeability lithologies, and carbonate rocks with high uranium-sorption potential. These features may provide a robust natural barrier to radionuclide migration. Geologic and laboratory characterization data from the Negev Desert are incorporated into multiphase flow and transport models, solved using PFLOTRAN, to aid in site characterization and risk analysis that will support decision-making for waste disposal in an intermediate-depth borehole design. The lithology with the greatest uranium sorption potential at the site is phosphorite. We use modeling to evaluate the ability of this layer to impact uranium transport around a proposed disposal borehole. The current objective of the simulations is focused on characterizing hypothetical leakage from waste canisters and subsequent uranium migration under three infiltration scenarios. Here, we describe a hydrogeologic model based on data from a local exploratory borehole and present results for uranium flow and transport simulations under varying infiltration scenarios. We find that under the current climate conditions, it is likely that uranium will remain in the near-field of the borehole for thousands of years. However, under a hypothesized extreme climate scenario representing an increase in infiltration by a factor of 300x above present-day values, uranium may break through the phosphorite layer and exit the base of the model domain (~200 m above the water table) within 1000 years. Simulation results have direct implications for the planning of nuclear waste disposal in the Negev Desert, and specifically in intermediate-depth boreholes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climatic imprint on interfacially-controlled platinum-palladium resources

Abstract Iron oxide-rich laterites, soils, and regolith formed from the weathering of ultramafic rocks represent untapped unconventional resources for the critical minerals platinum and palladium, but the fundamental surficial geochemistry of these elements remains poorly understood. Depletion of Pd relative to Pt occurs in some weathering zones in semi-arid climates. The accepted model attributes this platinum-palladium chemical fractionation to preferential complexation of Pd by dissolved chloride. However, similar fractionation is not observed in laterites of humid equatorial regions despite substantial wet deposition of chloride. The established mechanistic model for Pt and Pd behavior during weathering thus inaccurately predicts the distribution of these critical minerals in many settings, hindering global resource assessment. We show through mineral-fluid partitioning experiments coupled to element-specific spectroscopy that this canonical explanation for platinum-palladium fractionation is invalid: chloride complexation does not differentially mobilize Pd versus Pt. Instead, mineral-specific interfacial reactions control Pd and Pt accumulation. Modeling of platinum-palladium fractionation in representative weathering zone profiles demonstrates sub-equal retention in goethite-rich settings and Pd depletion in hematite-rich zones, accurately predicting trends observed in soils and laterites. Iron oxide mineralogy, reflecting modern and past regional climate conditions, is likely the primary determinant of Pt and Pd endowment in weathering zone resources. This new model for Pt and Pd mobilization and accumulation behavior provides a mechanistic foundation for exploration and recovery of platinum group elements from novel ultramafic regolith deposits.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

Abstract. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urbanization effects on the spatial patterns of spring vegetation phenology depend on the climatic background

Cities have been considered ideal surrogates for evaluating ecological responses to climate warming. Although research has revealed that the urban heat island effect is not the only determinant that drives the rural-urban difference in spring phenology, limited attempts further explore the effect of complex interactions between urbanization and climates on the start of the season (SOS). Here, we employed the percentage of impervious surface area as an indicator of urbanization levels, incorporating the urban heat island (UHI) effect and climates to decipher the multiple effects on the temporal shift in SOS. Our results suggest that urbanization, the UHI effect, and climates jointly drive the phenological timing in cities. Further, the SOS is highly linearly correlated with urbanization levels and UHI effects (p<0.001) in the zones with warm and humid climates, whereas relatively warmer, cooler, or arid climates break down the linearity. Geographically, the SOS is north-south symmetrical for the rural-urban ecosystem at the national scale, which initiates at the mid-latitudes (around 30 °N, 67.58 DOY ± 2.23 days) first and then towards the low (around 20 °N, 105.25 DOY ± 1.31 days) and high-latitudes (45 °N, 123.01 DOY ± 1.45 days). Chilling accumulation and spring temperature jointly contribute to this phenomenon. As the UHI effect is similar to the projected global warming in the future, understanding the phenological responses to urbanization in various climates is insightful for evaluating the impact of future warming on plants' phenological behavior in the global ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing freshwater and dissolved organic carbon flows to Northwest Alaska’s Elson lagoon

Manifestations of climate change in the Arctic are numerous and include hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, both expected as a result of atmospheric and surface warming. Across the terrestrial Arctic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) entrained in arctic rivers may be providing a carbon subsidy to coastal food webs. Yet, data from field sampling is too often of limited duration to confidently ascertain impacts of climate change on freshwater and DOC flows to coastal waters. This study applies numerical modeling to investigate trends in freshwater and DOC exports from land to Elson Lagoon in Northwest Alaska over the period 1981-2020. While the modeling approach has limitations, the results point to significant increases in freshwater and DOC exports to the lagoon over the past four decades. The model simulation reveals significant increases in surface, subsurface (suprapermafrost), and total freshwater exports. Significant increases are also noted in surface and subsurface DOC production and export, influenced by warming soils and associated active-layer thickening. The largest changes in subsurface components are noted in September, which has experienced a ~50% increase in DOC export emanating from suprapermafrost flow. Direct coastal suprapermafrost freshwater and DOC exports in late summer more than doubled between the first and last five years of the simulation period, with a large anomaly in September 2019 representing a more than fourfold increase over September direct coastal export during the early 1980s. These trends highlight the need for dedicated measurement programs that will enable improved understanding of climate change impacts on coastal zone processes in this data sparse region of Northwest Alaska.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic-boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. Here, to further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re-parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Coupled Biotic-Abiotic Processes Control Biogeochemical Cycling of Dissolved Organic Matter in the Columbia River Hyporheic Zone

A critical component of assessing the impacts of climate change on watershed ecosystems involves understanding the role that dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays in driving whole ecosystem metabolism. The hyporheic zone—a biogeochemical control point where ground water and river water mix—is characterized by high DOM turnover and microbial activity and is responsible for a large fraction of lotic respiration. Yet, the dynamic nature of this ecotone provides a challenging but important environment to parse out different DOM influences on watershed function and net carbon and nutrient fluxes. We used high-resolution Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to provide a detailed molecular characterization of DOM and its transformation pathways in the Columbia river watershed. Samples were collected from ground water (adjacent unconfined aquifer underlying the Hanford 300 Area), Columbia river water, and its hyporheic zone. The hyporheic zone was sampled at five locations to capture spatial heterogeneity within the hyporheic zone. Our results revealed that abiotic transformation pathways (e.g., carboxylation), potentially driven by abiotic factors such as sunlight, in both the ground water and river water are likely influencing DOM availability to the hyporheic zone, which could then be coupled with biotic processes for enhanced microbial activity. The ground water profile revealed high rates of N and S transformations via abiotic reactions. The river profile showed enhanced abiotic photodegradation of lignin-like molecules that subsequently entered the hyporheic zone as low molecular weight, more degraded compounds. While the compounds in river water were in part bio-unavailable, some were further shown to increase rates of microbial respiration. Together, river water and ground water enhance microbial activity within the hyporheic zone, regardless of river stage, as shown by elevated putative amino-acid transformations and the abundance of amino-sugar and protein-like compounds. This enhanced microbial activity is further dependent on the composition of ground water and river water inputs. Our results further suggest that abiotic controls on DOM should be incorporated into predictive modeling for understanding watershed dynamics, especially as climate variability and land use could affect light exposure and changes to ground water essential elements, both shown to impact the Columbia river hyporheic zone.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High-Resolution Regional Wave Hindcast for U.S. Pacific Island Territories

This report summarizes modeling efforts for hindcasting of wave climate within the Exclusive Economic Zone around American Samoa, Baker Island and Howland Island, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef, and Wake Island. The report describes the mesh development and data sources used in the process. In addition, it provides the results of a sensitivity analysis performed to determine the optimal model configuration, details the data used for model forcing, shows a detailed skill assessment, and depicts the output.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Climate-driven deoxygenation elevates fishing vulnerability for the ocean's widest ranging shark

Climate-driven expansions of ocean hypoxic zones are predicted to concentrate pelagic fish in oxygenated surface layers, but how expanding hypoxia and fisheries will interact to affect threatened pelagic sharks remains unknown. Here, analysis of satellite-tracked blue sharks and environmental modelling in the eastern tropical Atlantic oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) shows shark maximum dive depths decreased due to combined effects of decreasing dissolved oxygen (DO) at depth, high sea surface temperatures, and increased surface-layer net primary production. Multiple factors associated with climate-driven deoxygenation contributed to blue shark vertical habitat compression, potentially increasing their vulnerability to surface fisheries. Greater intensity of longline fishing effort occurred above the OMZ compared to adjacent waters. Higher shark catches were associated with strong DO gradients, suggesting potential aggregation along suitable DO gradients contributed to habitat compression and higher fishing-induced mortality. Fisheries controls to counteract deoxygenation effects on shark catches will be needed as oceans continue warming.

Vedor, Marisa↗

Impact of ITCZ width on global climate: ITCZ-MIP

Abstract. The width of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affects tropical rainfall, Earth's albedo, large-scale circulation, and climate sensitivity. To better understand the ITCZ width and its effects on global climate, we present a protocol to force changes in ITCZ width in climate models. Starting from an aquaplanet configuration with a slab ocean, adding surface heat fluxes in the deep tropics forces the ITCZ to narrow, and subtracting them causes it to widen. The protocol successfully generates changes in ITCZ width in all four climate models used in this study. ITCZ width in each model responds linearly to forcing magnitude and sign. Comparing across the four climate models, a response to varying ITCZ width that is remarkably consistent among models is the ITCZ strength, which is greater the narrower the ITCZ. On the other hand, the effect of varying ITCZ width on climate sensitivity is divergent among our four models, varying even in sign. Results from this pilot study highlight the connections between surface fluxes, ITCZ width, and the wider climate. A comprehensive model intercomparison project (MIP) has the potential to advance understanding of both the physical processes shaping ITCZ width and its influence on remote atmospheric circulations and global climate.

Geology↗

Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of the Large Seasonal Cycle of Upwelling Zone Sea Surface Temperatures on the Atmosphere

Abstract The amplitude of the annual cycle of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the tropics is the largest in the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Upwelling activity in these regions is maximum during late boreal summer and autumn, resulting in cool SSTs, and minimum in spring, leading to warm SSTs. The fundamental question of how this large seasonal cycle affects the atmosphere has received relatively little scientific attention. In this study, we use perturbed-SST experiments in an atmosphere model to identify the effects of the seasonal cycle of upwelling zone SSTs on the atmospheric state. Although annual-mean upwelling zone SSTs are cool, preventing their convective coupling with the free troposphere for much of the year, their boreal spring warmth can activate precipitating convection. We find that in this season, upwelling zone SSTs affect the atmosphere by 1) altering the intensity and position of the local intertropical convergence zone and 2) inducing a thermally forced Matsuno–Gill response, altering subtropical winds. On the seasonal time scale, the Atlantic upwelling zone is more effective than the Pacific in inducing this response. We also find that, consistent with prior work, the Pacific upwelling zone excites extratropical modes of internal atmospheric variability. Upwelling zone SSTs have remained poorly simulated through generations of climate models; our experiments allow us to diagnose the atmospheric biases that arise in response to upwelling zone SST biases. Our experiments show that upwelling zone SST biases are most impactful in boreal spring, particularly over the Atlantic.

Ramesh, Nandini↗

Characterization of Root Zone Soil Moisture and Herpetofaunal Biodiversity in the Southern Great Plains

(1) Goal: The scientific objective to the proposed research is to develop a proto-type downscaled (<1 km) version of the root-zone soil moisture product called SoilMERGE or SMERGE. This objective is linked as root zone soil moisture is a critical climate variable that has a more direct influence on plant growth than precipitation. Therefore, the developed downscaled version of SMERGE can be used as input into biodiversity informatic techniques (i.e., maximum entropy modeling) Development of downscaled SMERGE will be facilitated by Department of Energy (DOE) resources specifically data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility and modeling platforms such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep in the Sierra Nevada critical zone: saprock represents a large terrestrial organic carbon stock

Large uncertainty remains in the spatial distribution of deep soil organic carbon (OC) storage and how climate controls belowground OC. This research aims to quantify OC stocks, characterize soil OC age and chemical composition, and evaluate climatic impacts on OC storage from the soil surface through the deep critical zone to bedrock. These objectives were carried out at four sites along a bio-climosequence in the Sierra Nevada, California. On average, 74% of OC was stored below the A horizon, and up to 30% of OC was stored in saprock (friable weakly weathered bedrock). Radiocarbon, spectroscopic, and isotopic analyses revealed the coexistence of very old organic matter (OM) (mean radiocarbon age = 20 300 years) with relatively recent OM (mean radiocarbon age = 4800 years) and highly decomposed organic compounds with relatively less decomposed material in deep soil and saprock. This co-mingling of OM suggests OC is prone to both active cycling and long-term protection from degradation. In addition to having direct effects on OC cycling, climate indirectly controls deep OC storage through its impact on the degree of regolith weathering (e.g. thickening). Although deep OC concentrations are low relative to soil, thick saprock represents a large, previously unrealized OC pool.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Riparian Buffer Designs to Climate Change—Nutrient and Sediment Loading to Streams: A Case Study in the Albemarle-Pamlico River Basins (USA) Using HAWQS

Riparian buffer zones (RBZs) provide multiple benefits to watershed ecosystems. We aimed to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of the RBZ designs to climate change nutrient and sediment loadings to streams. We designed 135 simulation scenarios starting with the six baselines RBZs (grass, urban, two-zone forest, three-zone forest, wildlife, and naturalized) in three 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds within the Albemarle-Pamlico river basin (USA). Using the hydrologic and water quality system (HAWQS), we assessed the sensitivity of the designs to five water quality indicator (WQI) parameters: dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorous (TP), total nitrogen (TN), sediment (SD), and biochemical oxygen demand (BD). To understand the climate mitigation potential of RBZs, we identified a subset of future climate change projection models of air temperature and precipitation using EPA’s Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online tool. Analyses revealed optimal RBZ designs for the three watersheds. In terms of watershed ecosystem services sustainability, the optimal Urban RBZ in contemporary climate (1983–2018) reduced SD from 61–96%, TN from 34–55%, TP from 9–48%, and BD from 53–99%, and raised DO from 4–10% with respect to No-RBZ in the three watersheds. The late century’s (2070–2099) extreme mean annual climate changes significantly increased the projected SD and BD; however, the addition of urban RBZs was projected to offset the climate change reducing SD from 28–94% and BD from 69–93% in the watersheds. All other types of RBZs are also projected to fully mitigate the climate change impacts on WQI parameters except three-zone RBZ.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Beaver dams overshadow climate extremes in controlling riparian hydrology and water quality

Abstract Hydrologic extremes dominate chemical exports from riparian zones and dictate water quality in major river systems. Yet, changes in land use and ecosystem services alongside growing climate variability are altering hydrologic extremes and their coupled impacts on riverine water quality. In the western U.S., warming temperatures and intensified aridification are increasingly paired with the expanding range of the American beaver—and their dams, which transform hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles in riparian systems. Here, we show that beaver dams overshadow climatic hydrologic extremes in their effects on water residence time and oxygen and nitrogen fluxes in the riparian subsurface. In a mountainous watershed in Colorado, U.S.A., we find that the increase in riparian hydraulic gradients imposed by a beaver dam is 10.7–13.3 times greater than seasonal hydrologic extremes. The massive hydraulic gradient increases hyporheic nitrate removal by 44.2% relative to seasonal extremes alone. A drier, hotter climate in the western U.S. will further expand the range of beavers and magnify their impacts on watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry, illustrating that ecosystem feedbacks to climate change will alter water quality in river systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗