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NASA NTRS2004

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Convective and Stratiform Precipitation Processes and their Relationship to Latent Heating

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. An improved convective -stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm has been developed to obtain the 3D structure of cloud heating over the Tropics based on two sources of information: 1) rainfall information, namely its amount and the fraction due to light rain intensity, observed directly from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite and 2) synthetic cloud physics information obtained from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of cloud systems. The cloud simulations provide details on cloud processes, specifically latent heating, eddy heat flux convergence and radiative heating/cooling, that. are not directly observable by satellite. The new CSH algorithm-derived heating has a noticeably different heating structure over both ocean and land regions compared to the previous CSH algorithm. One of the major differences between new and old algorithms is that the level of maximum cloud heating occurs 1 to 1.5 km lower in the atmosphere in the new algorithm. This can effect the structure of the implied air currents associated with the general circulation of the atmosphere in the Tropics. The new CSH algorithm will be used provide retrieved heating data to other heating algorithms to supplement their performance.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2013

Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography for the Packed Bed Reactor ISS Flight Experiment

Fixed packed bed reactors are compact, require minimum power and maintenance to operate, and are highly reliable. These features make this technology a highly desirable unit operation for long duration life support systems in space. NASA is developing an ISS experiment to address this technology with particular focus on water reclamation and air revitalization. Earlier research and development efforts funded by NASA have resulted in two hydrodynamic models which require validation with appropriate instrumentation in an extended microgravity environment. To validate these models, the instantaneous distribution of the gas and liquid phases must be measured.Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography (ECVT) is a non-invasive imaging technology recently developed for multi-phase flow applications. It is based on distributing flexible capacitance plates on the peripheral of a flow column and collecting real-time measurements of inter-electrode capacitances. Capacitance measurements here are directly related to dielectric constant distribution, a physical property that is also related to material distribution in the imaging domain. Reconstruction algorithms are employed to map volume images of dielectric distribution in the imaging domain, which is in turn related to phase distribution. ECVT is suitable for imaging interacting materials of different dielectric constants, typical in multi-phase flow systems. ECVT is being used extensively for measuring flow variables in various gas-liquid and gas-solid flow systems. Recent application of ECVT include flows in risers and exit regions of circulating fluidized beds, gas-liquid and gas-solid bubble columns, trickle beds, and slurry bubble columns. ECVT is also used to validate flow models and CFD simulations. The technology is uniquely qualified for imaging phase concentrations in packed bed reactors for the ISS flight experiments as it exhibits favorable features of compact size, low profile sensors, high imaging speed, and flexibility to fit around columns of various shapes and sizes. ECVT is also safer than other commonly used imaging modalities as it operates in the range of low frequencies (1 MHz) and does not radiate radioactive energy. In this effort, ECVT is being used to image flow parameters in a packed bed reactor for an ISS flight experiment.

Tomography↗

NASA NTRS1997

Year-Round Pack Ice in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica: Response and Sensitivity to Atmospheric and Oceanic Forcing

Using a dynamic-thermodynamic numerical sea-ice model, external oceanic and atmospheric forcings on sea ice in the Weddell Sea are examined to identify physical processes associated with the seasonal cycle of pack ice, and to identify further the parameters that coupled models need to consider in predicting the response of the pack ice to climate and ocean-circulation changes. In agreement with earlier studies, the primary influence on the winter ice-edge maximum extent is air temperature. Ocean heat flux has more impact on the minimum-ice-edge extent and in reducing pack-ice thickness, especially in the eastern-Weddell Sea. Low relative humidity enhances ice growth in thin ice and open-water regions, producing a more realistic ice edge along the coastal areas of the western-Weddell Sea where dry continental air has an impact. The modeled extent of the Weddell summer pack is equally sensitive to ocean heat flux and atmospheric relative humidity variations with the more dynamic responses being from the atmosphere. Since the atmospheric regime in the eastern Weddell is dominated by marine intrusions from lower latitudes, with high humidity already, it is unlikely that either the moisture trans- port could be further raised or that it could be significantly lowered because of its distance from the continent (the lower humidity source). Ocean heat-transport variability is shown to lead to overall ice thinning in the model response and is a known feature of the actual system, as evidenced by the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid 1970s.

Geiger, Cathleen A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Adaptation to high CO2 concentration in an optimal environment: radiation capture, canopy quantum yield and carbon use efficiency

The effect of elevated [CO2] on wheat (Triticum aestivum L. Veery 10) productivity was examined by analysing radiation capture, canopy quantum yield, canopy carbon use efficiency, harvest index and daily C gain. Canopies were grown at either 330 or 1200 micromoles mol-1 [CO2] in controlled environments, where root and shoot C fluxes were monitored continuously from emergence to harvest. A rapidly circulating hydroponic solution supplied nutrients, water and root zone oxygen. At harvest, dry mass predicted from gas exchange data was 102.8 +/- 4.7% of the observed dry mass in six trials. Neither radiation capture efficiency nor carbon use efficiency were affected by elevated [CO2], but yield increased by 13% due to a sustained increase in canopy quantum yield. CO2 enrichment increased root mass, tiller number and seed mass. Harvest index and chlorophyll concentration were unchanged, but CO2 enrichment increased average life cycle net photosynthesis (13%, P < 0.05) and root respiration (24%, P < 0.05). These data indicate that plant communities adapt to CO2 enrichment through changes in C allocation. Elevated [CO2] increases sink strength in optimal environments, resulting in sustained increases in photosynthetic capacity, canopy quantum yield and daily C gain throughout the life cycle.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing the Tangent Linear Behaviour of Common Tracer Transport Schemes and Their Use in a Linearised Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The linearity of a selection of common advection schemes is tested and examined with a view to their use in the tangent linear and adjoint versions of an atmospheric general circulation model. The schemes are tested within a simple offline one-dimensional periodic domain as well as using a simplified and complete configuration of the linearised version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5). All schemes which prevent the development of negative values and preserve the shape of the solution are confirmed to have nonlinear behaviour. The piecewise parabolic method (PPM) with certain flux limiters, including that used by default in GEOS-5, is found to support linear growth near the shocks. This property can cause the rapid development of unrealistically large perturbations within the tangent linear and adjoint models. It is shown that these schemes with flux limiters should not be used within the linearised version of a transport scheme. The results from tests using GEOS-5 show that the current default scheme (a version of PPM) is not suitable for the tangent linear and adjoint model, and that using a linear third-order scheme for the linearised model produces better behaviour. Using the third-order scheme for the linearised model improves the correlations between the linear and non-linear perturbation trajectories for cloud liquid water and cloud liquid ice in GEOS-5.

Tangent Linear Model↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Atmosphere-Ocean Interface Layer of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model and Data Assimilation System Volume 51

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM) includes modules for sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal warming and cool-skin layers. To support the application of a coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation capability, the GCM needs to be flexible enough to support both coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and atmosphere-only (AGCM) configurations, with only minor configuration changes at the user interface. This document presents a formulation of an atmosphere-ocean interface layer (AOIL) that serves this purpose. Previous work by Akella et al. (2017) described a version of a model for near-surface temperature variations, including both both diurnal warming and cool-skin effects, that has been used since 2017 in the near-real-time GEOS FP (forward processing) weather analysis and forecasting system. The diurnal cycle of SST in that version of the GEOS atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS) undergoes a sharp decay in the late afternoon (local time). The updated AOIL presented here includes a modification of the similarity function used in the diurnal warming model. Results from offline model runs illustrate an improvement in the near-surface (less than 0:5m depth) diurnal cycle compared to the original formulation. The new formulation requires minimal parameter tuning, and the improvements are robust across long (several month) simulation periods. This new model formulation, however, retains some deficiences from the previous module, such as a small warm bias in calm wind conditions for water depths below 1m. Our future work would include surface salinification and sea-ice into the AOIL.

Koster, Randal D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Influence of Aerosols on Monsoon Circulation and Hydroclimate

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global water cycles and climate change. In the Asian monsoon regions, the response of the regional water cycle and climate to aerosol forcing is very complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. Up to now, besides the general notion that aerosols may significantly impact monsoon through altering large scale radiative heating gradients, there has been very little information regarding the specific signatures, and mechanisms of aerosol-monsoon water cycle interaction. In this talk, based on preliminary results from observations and climate model experiments, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon water cycle, in particular the effects of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), and the role of the Tibetan Plateau. The influence of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, and impact on potential predictability of the monsoon climate system will also be discussed.

Lau, William K.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Influence of Aerosols on Monsoon Circulation and Hydroclimate

Lau, William K.M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation and global-scale circulation patterns

This research grant was a revised version of an original proposal. The period of the grant was for three years with a six-month no-cost extension; thus, it was from 20 July 1990 to 19 January 1994. The objectives of the grant were to identify periods and locations of active convection centers, primarily over the Southern Hemisphere tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans; determine reasons for any periodic behavior found in the first objective; identify cases where subtropical jets over the South Pacific persisted for several days and examine the influences of tropical versus extra-tropical mechanisms in maintaining them; obtain estimates of precipitation by Q(sub 1) and Q(sub 2) budgets, including the importance of terms in each of the respective budgets, and compare these estimates to those obtained by other methods; and diagnose the distributions of moisture and precipitable water over the North Atlantic Ocean using routine analyses and satellite microwave data. To accomplish these objectives, we used grant funds to purchase several data sets, including the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) observations of station precipitation, ECMWF WCRP/TOGA archive two analyses for January 1985 - December 1990, ECMWF WMO analyses for January 1980 - December 1987, and OLR data for July 1974 - December 1991. We already had some SSM/I data and GLA analyses from a previous grant. In addition, to improve our computing power, we also used grant funds to purchase an IBM PS/2 with accessories, a NEC laser jet printer, and a microcomputer system for word processing. This report is organized as follows. Our research team is listed first. Section two contains a summary of our significant accomplishments; however, a detailed discussion of research results is not included since this information can be found in the accompanying reprints and preprints. Section three offers some concluding remarks, and a complete bibliographic summary is given in Section four.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

NASA NTRS1980

The effect of clouds on the earth's solar and infrared radiation budgets

The effect of global cloudiness on the solar and infrared components of the earth's radiation balance is studied in general circulation model experiments. A wintertime simulation is conducted in which the cloud radiative transfer calculations use realistic cloud optical properties and are fully interactive with model-generated cloudiness. This simulation is compared to others in which the clouds are alternatively non-interactive with respect to the solar or thermal radiation calculations. Other cloud processes (formation, latent heat release, precipitation, vertical mixing) were accurately simulated in these experiments. It is concluded that on a global basis clouds increase the global radiation balance by 40 W/sq m by absorbing longwave radiation, but decrease it by 56 W/sq m by reflecting solar radiation to space. The net cloud effect is therefore a reduction of the radiation balance by 16 W/sq m, and is dominated by the cloud albedo effect. Changes in cloud frequency and distribution and in atmospheric and land temperatures are also reported for the control and for the non-interactive simulations. In general, removal of the clouds' infrared absorption cools the atmosphere and causes additional cloudiness to occur, while removal of the clouds' solar radiative properties warms the atmosphere and causes fewer clouds to form. It is suggested that layered clouds and convective clouds over water enter the climate system as positive feedback components, while convective clouds over land enter as negative components.

Herman, G. F.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Differential Absorption Measurements of Atmospheric Water Vapor with a Coherent Lidar at 2050.532 nm

Wind and water vapor are two major factors driving the Earth's atmospheric circulation, and direct measurement of these factors is needed for better understanding of basic atmospheric science, weather forecasting, and climate studies. Coherent lidar has proved to be a valuable tool for Doppler profiling of wind fields, and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) has shown its effectiveness in profiling water vapor. These two lidar techniques are generally considered distinctly different, but this paper explores an experimental combination of the Doppler and DIAL techniques for measuring both wind and water vapor with an eye-safe wavelength based on a solid-state laser material. Researchers have analyzed and demonstrated coherent DIAL water vapor measurements at 10 micrometers wavelength based on CO2 lasers. The hope of the research presented here is that the 2 gm wavelength in a holmium or thulium-based laser may offer smaller packaging and more rugged operation that the CO2-based approach. Researchers have extensively modeled 2 um coherent lasers for water vapor profiling, but no published demonstration is known. Studies have also been made, and results published on the Doppler portion, of a Nd:YAG-based coherent DIAL operating at 1.12 micrometers. Eye-safety of the 1.12 micrometer wavelength may be a concern, whereas the longer 2 micrometer and 10 micrometer systems allow a high level of eyesafety.

Koch, Grady J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Toward Connecting Subtropical Algal Blooms to Freshwater Nutrient Sources Using a Long-Term, Spatially Distributed, In Situ Chlorophyll-A Record

Harmful algal blooms are increasing in tropical estuaries which can have complex morphologies and hydrologic regimes while being less well studied than temperate estuaries. Spatial and temporal patterns of algal bloom occurrence in Florida Bay were examined to evaluate the potential contribution of the various freshwater inputs to the subtropical bay as nutrient sources. Monthly water quality data, from 1989 to 2009, at 28 sampling stations across the bay were analyzed at the station-month level, aggregated into hydrologic Zones of Similar Influence and based on annual rainfall seasons. The Zones of Similar Influence are linked to the geomorphology of the bay with western areas being more directly connected to the Southwest Florida Shelf waters than eastern areas. Correlation analysis suggested that inputs of phosphorus were the predominant factor in the initiation of elevated chlorophyll a (chl-a) levels but was also consistent with higher nitrogen limitation in western Florida Bay as reported in literature. Differences in mean monthly chl-a indicated a seasonality of algal blooms with elevated chl-a concentrations following heavy precipitation months for stations in the north-central and western areas of the bay where algal blooms have been re-occurring. Differences in stations' chl-a concentrations showed stations to the northwest as having significantly higher concentrations than more interior stations during the dry season but not during the rainy season (when algal blooms are occurring). Mapping the sampling stations atop the bathymetry of Florida Bay highlighted the importance of coastal morphology in evaluation of potential nutrient pathways for estuarine algal bloom sources. The specific factors resulting in the seasonal cycles of blooms remained unresolved but portions of the bay and times of year were identified as important areas for further research. This study indicates that illustrating the interplay of geomorphology and winds and rains at fine temporal and spatial resolution is required to describe nutrient circulation for systems with complex morphologies such as those associated with reefs, island matrices and headlands.

Florida Bay↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Studies on Aerosol Transport, Its Deposition, and Its Impact on Climate - the Study on the Surface Material Circulation can Connect from the Past to the Future

Recently the issue on glacier retreats comes up and many factors should be relevant to the issue. The absorbing aerosols such as dust and black carbon (BC) are considered to be one of the factors. After they deposited onto the snow surface, it will reduce snow albedo (called snow darkening effect) and probably contribute to further melting of glacier. The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) has developed at NASAlGSFC. However, the original snowpack model used in the land surface model in the GEOS-5 did not consider the snow darkening effect. Here we developed the new snow albedo scheme which can consider the snow darkening effect. In addition, another scheme on calculating mass concentrations on the absorbing aerosols in snowpack was also developed, in which the direct aerosol depositions from the chemical transport model in the GEOS-5 were used. The scheme has been validated with the observed data obtained at backyard of the Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, by Dr. Teruo Aoki (Meteorological Research Institute) et al. including me. The observed data was obtained when I was Ph.D. candidate. The original GEOS-5 during 2007-2009 over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau region showed more reductions of snow than that of the new GEOS-5 because the original one used lower albedo settings. On snow cover fraction, the new GEOS-5 simulated more realistic snow-covered area comparing to the MODIS snow cover fraction. The reductions on snow albedo, snow cover fraction, and snow water equivalent were seen with statistically significance if we consider the snow darkening effect comparing to the results without the snow darkening effect. In the real world, debris-cover, inside refreezing process, surface flow of lacier, etc. affect glacier mass balance and the simu.latedresults immediately do not affect whole glacier retreating. However, our results indicate that some surface melting over non debris-covered parts of the glacier would be explained by the snow darkening effect. Further discussion and observations are necessary to assess the glacier issue.

Yasunari, Teppei↗

NASA NTRS1993

Sunphotometer network for monitoring aerosol properties in the Brazilian Amazon

Satellite platforms have provided a methodology for regional and global remote sensing of aerosols. New systems will significantly improve that capability during the EOS era; however, the voluminous 20 year record of satellite data has produced only regional snapshots of aerosol loading and have not yielded a data base of the optical properties of those aerosols which are fundamental to our understanding of their influence on climate change. The prospect of fully understanding the properties of the aerosols with respect to climate change is small without validation and augmentation by ancillary ground based observations. Sun photometry was demonstrated to be an effective tool for ground based measurements of aerosol optical properties from fire emissions. Newer technology has expanded routine sun photometer measurements to spectral observations of solar aureole and almucantar allowing retrievals of size distribution, scattering phase function, and refractive index. A series of such observations were made in Brazil's Amazon basin from a network of six simultaneously recording instruments deployed in Sep. 1992. The instruments were located in areas removed from local aerosol sources such that sites are representative of regional aerosol conditions. The overall network was designed to cover the counter clockwise tropospheric circulation of the Amazon Basin. Spectral measurements of sun, aureole and sky data for retrieval of aerosol optical thickness, particle size distribution, and scattering phase function as well as measurements of precipitable water were made during noncloudy conditions.

Holben, Brent N.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Evaporator Development for an Evaporative Heat Pipe System

As fossil fuel resources continue to deplete, research for alternate power sources continues to develop. One of these alternate technologies is fuel cells. They are a practical fuel source able to provide significant amounts of power for applications from laptops to automobiles and their only byproduct is water. However, although this technology is over a century old and NASA has been working with it since the early 1960 s there is still room for improvement. The research I am involved in at NASA's Glenn Research Center is focusing on what is called a regenerative fuel cell system. The unique characteristic of this type of system is that it used an outside power source to create electrolysis of the water it produces and it then reuses the hydrogen and oxygen to continue producing power. The advantage of this type of system is that, for example, on space missions it can use solar power to recharge its gas supplies between periods when the object being orbited blocks out the sun. This particular system however is far from completion. This is because of the many components that are required to make up a fuel cell that need to be tested individually. The specific part of the system that is being worked on this summer of 2004 is the cooling system. The fuel cell stack, that is the part that actually creates the power, also produces a lot of heat. When not properly cooled, it has been known to cause fires which, needless to say are not conducive to the type of power that is trying to be created. In order to cool the fuel cell stack in this system we are developing a heat pipe cooling system. One of the main components of a heat pipe cooling system is what is known as the evaporator, and that is what happens to be the part of the system we are developing this summer. In most heat pipe systems the evaporator is a tube in which the working fluid is cooled and then re-circulated through the system to absorb more heat energy from the fuel cell stack. For this system, instead of a tube, the evaporator is made up of a stack-up of screen material and absorbent membranes inside a stainless steel shell and held together by a film adhesive and epoxy. There is an initial design for this flat plate evaporator, however is has not yet been made. The components of the stack-up are known, so all testing is focused on how it will all go together. This includes finding an appropriate epoxy to make the evaporator conductive all the way through and finding a way to hold the required tight tolerances as the stainless steel outer shell is put together. By doing the tests on smaller samples of the stack-ups and then testing the fill size component, the final flat plate evaporator will reach its final design so that research can continue on other parts of the regenerative fue1 cell system, and another step in the improvement of fue1 cell technology can be made.

Peters, Leigh C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Extended field observations of cirrus clouds using a ground-based cloud observing system

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of MODIS, AMSR-E and SSM/I data reveal that the sea ice production rate at the coastal polynyas along the Ross Ice Shelf has been increasing since 1992. This also means that the salinization rate and the formation of bottom water in the region are going up as well. Simulation studies indicate that the stronger production rate is likely associated with the ozone hole that has caused a deepening of the lows in the West Antarctic region and therefore stronger winds off the Ross Ice Shelf. Stronger winds causes larger coastal polynyas near the shelf and hence an enhanced ice production in the region during the autumn and winter period. Results of analysis of temperature data from MODIS and AMSR-E shows that the area and concentration of the sea ice cover are highly correlated with surface temperature for both the Arctic and Antarctic, especially in the seasonal regions where the correlation coefficients are about 0.9. Abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and surface ice temperatures (SITs) were also observed in 2007 and 2011when drastic reductions in the summer ice cover occurred, This phenomenon is consistent with the expected warming of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean on account of ice-albedo feedback. Changes in atmospheric circulation are also expected to have a strong influence on the sea ice cover but the results of direct correlation analyses of the sea ice cover with the Northern and the Southern Annular Mode indices show relatively weak correlations, This might be due in part to the complexity of the dynamics of the system that can be further altered by some phenomena like the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and extra polar processes like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (POD),

Comiso, Josefino C.↗