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At least 397 records · Page 22

Decoding the energy inputs that drive the upper atmosphere with NASA’s Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC)

NASA’s Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC) mission will study the effect of space weather phenomena on Earth’s upper atmosphere ion and neutral gases and, in turn, their impact on human assets. GDC will provide multi-point observations to determine how the Earth’s upper atmosphere is driven to dynamic changes and extremes by the solar wind. Magnetospheric energy input, both kinetic and electromagnetic, will be captured by the Comprehensive Auroral Precipitation Experiment (CAPE), the Thermal Plasma Sensor (TPS), and the Near Earth Magnetometer Instrument in a Small Integrated System (NEMISIS). CAPE captures the complete kinetic energy inputs with observations of the precipitating and upgoing electrons and precipitating ions. TPS captures part of the electromagnetic energy inputs with observations of the thermal plasma velocity that map E-field inputs, and NEMISIS captures the other part of the electromagnetic energy input with measurements of magnetic field variations due to field aligned currents. We use similar observations from the Defense Meteorological Space Platform (DMSP) satellites to demonstrate the balance between the different energy inputs (electron and ion Joule heating and Poynting flux) during the different phases of storms. We explore the local time and spatial structure and the impact they have on atmospheric density and winds with simulations of the Global Ionosphere and Thermosphere Model (GITM) and demonstrate how GDC will enable us to reconstruct those energy inputs locally and regionally

Eftyhia Zesta↗

South Africa Ecological Conservation: Identifying and Mapping Riparian Areas in South Africa with Earth Observations

Riparian zones are thin strips of wetland that occur along the edges of rivers, lakes, and other water bodies. They provide many ecosystem and societal benefits such as stream bank stabilization, flood control, and habitat stability, making these zones very important areas to preserve and protect. Recognizing the need to accurately map these ecosystems in a cost-effective way, we partnered with the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and the Biodiversity Survey of the Cape(BioSCape) to develop a GI methodology using Esri's ArcGIS Pro and data from Landsat 9 Operational Land Imager-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument, and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission to identify potential riparian zones (PRZ) and observed riparian vegetation(ORV) in the Southern Cape and the North West Province of South Africa to estimate the actual riparian vegetation (ARV) within those areas. Potential riparian ecosystems were calculated by utilizing a Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and a water feature layer, while observed riparian vegetation were calculated by overlaying a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and TWI. Actual Riparian Vegetation is determined by the overlap of ORV with PRZ and is done with conditional statements; ORV within PRZ is ARV. This method significantly improved a current riparian land cover classification since it combined high resolution optical imagery and topographic data. We anticipate such maps will be used by conservationists and practitioners interested in riparian monitoring and management.

Remote Sensing↗

Launching of the telstar satellite

The launching of the Telstar satellite from Cape Canaveral is described, with emphasis on the pre-launch testing and test facilities.

LAUNCHING FACILITY↗

New Determinations of Tides on the North-Western Ross Ice Shelf

New determinations of ocean tides are extracted from high-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) solutions at nine stations sitting on the Ross Ice Shelf. Five are multi-year time series. Three older time series are only 2–3 weeks long. These are not ideal, but they are still useful because they provide the only in situ tide observations in that sector of the ice shelf. The long tide-gauge observations from Scott Base and Cape Roberts are also reanalysed. They allow determination of some previously neglected tidal phenomena in this region, such as third-degree tides, and they provide context for analysis of the shorter datasets. The semidiurnal tides are small at all sites, yet M2 undergoes a clear seasonal cycle, which was first noted by Sir George Darwin while studying measurements from the Discovery expedition. Darwin saw a much larger modulation than we observe, and we consider possible explanations - instrumental or climatic - for this difference.

Antarctic tides↗

Checkerboard Patterns in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMFv2

An unphysical checkerboard pattern is identified in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF that is detectable across a wide range of timescales, from instantaneous snapshots to multi-year averages. A detection method is developed to quantify characteristics of the checkerboard signal by cataloguing all possible configurations of the eight adjacent neighbors for each cell on the model's cubed sphere grid using daily mean data. The checkerboard pattern is only found in cloud-related quantities, such as precipitation and liquid water path. Instances of pure and partial checkerboard are found to occur more often in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF when compared to satellite data regridded to the model grid. Continuous periods of partial checkerboard state are found to be more persistent in both models compared to satellite data, with E3SM-MMF exhibiting more persistence than E3SMv2. The checkerboard signal in E3SMv2 is found to be a direct consequence of the recently added deep convective trigger condition based on dynamically generated CAPE (DCAPE). In E3SM-MMF the checkerboard signal is found to be associated with the “trapping” of cloud-scale fluctuations within the embedded cloud-resolving model. Solutions to remedy this issue are discussed.

E3SMv2↗

A complementarity-based vapor-liquid equilibrium formulation for equation-oriented simulation and optimization

Vapor-Liquid Equilibrium (VLE) is a cornerstone of computer aided process engineering (CAPE). Embedded within process system models, VLE calculations are inherently procedural with non-smooth behavior that frequently require discrete decisions. Traditionally, these features resist the incorporation of VLE within efficient, large-scale equation-oriented (EO) process simulation and optimization strategies. On the other hand, recent reformulation of VLE models through the incorporation of complementarity constraints has broadened its scope to deal seamlessly with phase transitions and even supercritical excursions in process simulation and optimization. In this study, we extend these VLE complementarity models to EO frameworks where procedural thermodynamic property libraries are still required. Here, we develop an efficient, non-intrusive, and intuitive “square-flash” equation system that has been implemented within the IDAES Integrated Platform (IDAES-IP). Further, the effectiveness of this modular approach is demonstrated on case studies for non-ideal flash calculations and distillation optimization with disappearing phases and supercritical transitions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sediment transport and morphodynamic changes due to upstream variation and sea level rise on the Western Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The hydrological and morphological dynamics across the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) coastline are increasingly shaped by human interventions and climate change, affecting the sustainability of socio-economic environments. This study employs the TELEMAC-MASCARET modeling system (TELEMAC-2D, TOMAWAC, and SISYPHE modules) to simulate hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological changes for a 10-year period under baseline (SC1) and future climate (SC2) scenarios, considering wave climatology of Northeast (NEM) and Southwest monsoons (SWM). The results of sedimentation and erosion were analyzed across five key coastal zones from Ca Mau Cape (KV1) to Ha Tien (KV5). Model results highlight distinct seasonal patterns of sediment redistribution shaped by monsoonal flows, wave action, and seabed morphology. During the NEM, sediment deposition is concentrated near estuarine zones, while the SWM favors offshore sediment accumulation due to perpendicular wave actions, and shallow, gently sloping bathymetry that dissipates wave energy. Coastal erosion predominantly occurs at convex shoreline features subjected to stronger coastal currents, particularly in fine-grained sediment areas. Under future sea level rise and land subsidence scenarios, reduced flow velocities lead to lower bottom shear stress, promoting deposition and mitigating erosion problems despite increased wave energy. Besides that, sediment transport analyses across 14 cross-sections (C-S) reveal a southward trend during the NEM and a northward reversal during the SWM, with upstream sediment reductions primarily influencing near-estuarine zones and exerting minimal impact beyond the mid-coastal regions. Furthermore, these findings advance the understanding of sediment redistribution processes under climate change and seasonal change, and provide a scientific basis for adaptive coastal management and sustainable development.

Climate change↗

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spatial and temporal variability of tritium in precipitation within South Africa and it's bearing on hydrological studies

Tritium, the radioactive isotope of hydrogen, has been used to understand groundwater recharge processes for decades. The current variation of tritium in the atmosphere is largely attributed to stratospheric production and fall out rates as well as global circulation phenomena controlling the hydrological cycle. Global controls on the variability in atmospheric tritium activity are poorly suited to explain local variation and tritium activities in precipitation are often assumed to be uniform over both local and regional catchments and watersheds. This assumption can result in both over and under estimation of modern recharge within an aquifer when using tritium as the recharge proxy. In order to minimize the inherent prediction residuals associated with tritium based recharge investigations, the variability of tritium in precipitation was modelled from 127 spatial precipitation samples taken over a two year period, combined with a 76 precipitation sample group-set taken over a one year period in a single location. Precipitation events were traced backward in time, from the point of collection, using HYSPLIT modelling to ascertain the origins of moisture content as well as the altitudes of moisture origin reached along the particle track. Tritium activities, collected over a one year period in Paarl, range from 0.45 to 4.16 TU and have a mean of 1.59 TU. Spatial storm events in the Western Cape in 2017 and 2018 had a range from 0 to 2.2 and 0.37 to 3.27 TU, respectively, with mean activities of 1.18 (n = 34) and 1.25 TU (n = 32). Both storm events had similar tritium variability (σ = 0.5 n = 35 and 0.48 n = 32). Regional precipitation events had the largest range of tritium activities (0.55–12.2 TU). Although not all tritium activities can be explained by interrogating the water mass origin, this study suggests that approximately 90% of events can be completely or partially attributed to the origin of the water mass. The variability of tritium, both spatially and temporally, was higher than expected, confirming that when uniform tritium inputs are used, the groundwater system would provide inaccurate modern recharge estimates. Higher spatial resolution of tritium variation in precipitation for a particular region will improve our ability to relate tritium activities in groundwater to local precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An isotopic test of the seasonal migration hypothesis for large grazing ungulates inhabiting the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain

The Greater Cape Floristic Region of South Africa was critical to the evolution of early modern humans ( Homo sapiens ) during the Pleistocene. The now submerged continental shelf formed its own ecosystem, the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain (PAP), where early humans lived and foraged. Grazing animals living on the plain might have migrated east and west tracking seasonally varying rains—a hypothesis tested here by examining δ 13 C and δ 18 O of serially-drilled teeth from seven ungulate genera: Alcelaphus , Connochaetes , Antidorcus , Redunca , Damaliscus , and Hippotragus . Modern observations and paleoecological reconstructions indicate that summer rainfall areas to the east have more C 4 grasses while the winter rainfall areas to the west have more C 3 grasses, and that summer and winter rains differ in δ 18 O. Thus, we analyze δ 13 C and δ 18 O preserved in herbivore teeth from the site of PP30 (a hyena den dating to ~151 ka) to infer diet and water source throughout tooth formation. On a generic level, we report none of the samples exhibit δ 13 C or δ 18 O values that differ significantly from a taxon that likely foraged locally through the year (Southern reedbuck, Redunca arundium ). Overall, results indicate that the PAP could support herbivore populations year-round without substantial migration, providing an ecosystem ideal for human inhabitants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Gulf Stream energy resources: A 30-year high-resolution simulation study

The strength and proximity of the Gulf Stream (GS) along the U.S. coast offers opportunities for marine energy extraction. Leveraging high-resolution (up to 400 m) long-term (30-year) hindcasts based on an unstructured grid model, this study characterizes the energy potential of the GS in two viable locations: the Florida Straits (FS) and Cape Hatteras (CH). Results reveal distinct characteristics in the kinetic energy flux (KEF) and kinetic energy density (KED) for the two regions. The 30-year mean KEF at CH is 27.50 GW, surpassing the 19.74 GW estimated for the FS, which is attributed to the wider cross-section of the GS in CH. Additionally, CH exhibits higher KEF variability due to GS’s larger path shifts and meanders. Estimated KEDs at ADCP site locations reach up to 2,908 W/m 2 in the FS and 1,512 W/m 2 in the CH at a depth of 20 m. High-energy zones are closer to shore in the FS, whereas energy-rich areas at CH are located further offshore. A depth-based KED analysis shows significant decreases across typical energy extraction depths (20 to 100 m), with reductions up to 44%. Finally, this study provides high-resolution resource characterization, forming a foundation for optimized site selection and marine hydrokinetic system design.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Characterizing the diverse hydrogeology underlying rivers and estuaries using new floating transient electromagnetic methodology

We report the hydrogeology below large surface water features such as rivers and estuaries is universally under-informed at the long reach to basin scales (tens of km+). This challenge inhibits the accurate modeling of fresh/saline groundwater interfaces and groundwater/surface water exchange patterns at management-relevant spatial extents. Here we introduce a towed, floating transient electromagnetic (TEM) system (i.e. FloaTEM) for rapid (up to 15 km/h) high resolution electrical mapping of the subsurface below large water bodies to depths often a factor of 10 greater than other towed instruments. The novel FloaTEM system is demonstrated at a range of diverse 4th through 6th-order riverine settings across the United States including 1) the Farmington River, near Hartford, Connecticut; 2) the Upper Delaware River near Barryville, New York; 3) the Tallahatchie River near Shellmound, Mississippi; and, 4) the Eel River estuary, on Cape Cod, near Falmouth, Massachusetts. Airborne frequency-domain electromagnetic and land-based towed TEM data are also compared at the Tallahatchie River site, and streambed geologic scenarios are explored with forward modeling. A range of geologic structures and pore water salinity interfaces were identified. Process-based interpretation of the case study data indicated FloaTEM can resolve varied sediment-water interface materials, such as the accumulation of fines at the bottom of a reservoir and permeable sand/gravel riverbed sediments that focus groundwater discharge. Bedrock layers were mapped at several sites, and aquifer confining units were defined at comparable resolution to airborne methods. Terrestrial fresh groundwater discharge with flowpaths extending hundreds of meters from shore was also imaged below the Eel River estuary, improving on previous hydrogeological characterizations of that nutrient-rich coastal exchange zone. In summary, the novel FloaTEM system fills a critical gap in our ability to characterize the hydrogeology below surface water features and will support more accurate prediction of groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics and fresh-saline groundwater interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of an Improved Convective Triggering Function: Observational Evidence and SCM Tests

This study provides a strong observational support for a recently developed convective triggering function that uses the large-scale dynamic convective available potential energy (dCAPE) as a constraint combined with an unrestricted air parcel launch level (ULL) to relax the unrealistic strong coupling of convection to surface heating and capture nocturnal elevated convection. Both case study and statistical analysis are conducted using the observations collected from the Department of Energy (DOE)'s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites. They show that dCAPE has a much stronger correlation with precipitation than CAPE and ULL is essential to detect elevated convection above boundary layer under both midlatitude and tropical conditions and for both afternoon and nighttime deep convection regimes. Sensitivity tests with the single-column model (SCM) of DOE's Energy Exascale and Earth System Model (E3SM) indicate that the role of dCAPE in suppressing daytime convection is more effective for tropical convection than midlatitude convection. Even though the dCAPE can suppress the overestimated convection, ULL plays a much bigger role in improving the diurnal cycle of precipitation than dCAPE. It not only helps capture nocturnal elevated convection, but also significantly removes the spurious morning precipitation seen in the default model, due to the release of unstable energy at night. However, the use of ULL has led to an overestimation of light-to-moderate precipitation (1-10 mm/day) due to more convection being triggered above boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗