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This presentation summarizes the items discussed during the End-use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Technical Advisory Group Meeting #9 on January 28, 2021.
This presentation summarizes the items discussed during the End-use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Technical Advisory Group Meeting #10 on April 21–22, 2021.
This presentation summarizes the items discussed during the End-use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Technical Advisory Group Meeting #6 on March 5, 2020.
For a stand-alone retail building, a primary school, and a secondary school in each of the 16 California climate zones, the EnergyPlus building energy simulation model was used to estimate how minimum mechanical ventilation rates (VRs) affect energy use and indoor air concentrations of an indoor-generated contaminant. The modeling indicates large changes in heating energy use, but only moderate changes in total building energy use, as minimum VRs in the retail building are changed. For example, predicted state-wide heating energy consumption in the retail building decreases by more than 50% and total building energy consumption decreases by approximately 10% as the minimum VR decreases from the Title 24 requirement to no mechanical ventilation. The primary and secondary schools have notably higher internal heat gains than in the retail building models, resulting in significantly reduced demand for heating. The school heating energy use was correspondingly less sensitive to changes in the minimum VR. The modeling indicates that minimum VRs influence HVAC energy and total energy use in schools by only a few percent. For both the retail building and the school buildings, minimum VRs substantially affected the predicted annual-average indoor concentrations of an indoor generated contaminant, with larger effects in schools. The shape of the curves relating contaminant concentrations with VRs illustrate the importance of avoiding particularly low VRs.
Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.
Trustworthy savings calculations are critical to convincing investors in energy efficiency projects of the benefit and cost-effectiveness of such investments and their ability to replace or defer supply-side capital investments. However, today’s methods for measurement and verification (M&V) of energy savings constitute a significant portion of the total costs of efficiency projects. They also require time-consuming manual data acquisition and often do not deliver results until years after the program period has ended. The rising availability of “smart” meters, combined with new analytical approaches to quantifying savings, has opened the door to conducting M&V more quickly and at lower cost, with comparable or improved accuracy. These meter- and software-based approaches, increasingly referred to as “M&V 2.0”, are the subject of surging industry interest, particularly in the context of utility energy efficiency programs. Program administrators, evaluators, and regulators are asking how M&V 2.0 compares with more traditional methods, how proprietary software can be transparently performance tested, how these techniques can be integrated into the next generation of whole-building focused efficiency programs. This paper expands recent analyses of public-domain whole-building M&V methods, focusing on more novel M&V2.0 modeling approaches that are used in commercial technologies, as well as approaches that are documented in the literature, and/or developed by the academic building research community. We present a testing procedure and metrics to assess the performance of whole-building M&V methods. We then illustrate the test procedure by evaluating the accuracy of ten baseline energy use models, against measured data from a large dataset of 537 buildings. The results of this study show that the already available advanced interval data baseline models hold great promise for scaling the adoption of building measured savings calculations using Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data. Median coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CV(RMSE)) was less than 25% for every model tested when twelve months of training data were used. With even six months of training data, median CV(RMSE) for daily energy total was under 25% for all models tested. Finally, these findings can be used to build confidence in model robustness, and the readiness of these approaches for industry uptake and adoption
High-performance districts and communities offer opportunities for reducing energy use, emissions, and costs, and can be instrumental in helping cities achieve their climate goals. The design of such communities requires identification of opportunities early on and their re-evaluation throughout the planning process. There is a need for energy modeling tools that connect 3D Computer-Aided Design (CAD) platforms to simulation engines, enabling detailed energy analysis of districts within the workflows and tools used by practitioners. This paper introduces the Dragonfly and URBANoptTM combined toolset that supports the creation of urban models from a range of geometry formats typically used by designers and planners, and provides an integrated pathway to simulate district-scale energy systems. The toolset is piloted by a global architecture and master planning firm to evaluate several key urban-scale technical questions for the design of a district in Chicago. The findings indicate that, while energy savings can be achieved through traditional architectural studies and enhancements to individual building efficiency, the modeling toolset helps identify additional savings and insights that can be achieved when considering district-scale energy systems. Finally, this study demonstrates how the Dragonfly/URBANopt toolset can integrate with master planning workflows, thereby enabling an iterative performance-based design process.
Accurate savings estimations are important to promote energy efficiency projects and demonstrate their cost-effectiveness. The increasing presence of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) in commercial buildings has resulted in a rising availability of high frequency interval data. These data can be used for a variety of energy efficiency applications such as demand response, fault detection and diagnosis, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) optimization. This large amount of data has also opened the door to the use of advanced statistical learning models, which hold promise for providing accurate building baseline energy consumption predictions, and thus accurate saving estimations. The gradient boosting machine is a powerful machine learning algorithm that is gaining considerable traction in a wide range of data driven applications, such as ecology, computer vision, and biology. In the present work an energy consumption baseline modeling method based on a gradient boosting machine was proposed. To assess the performance of this method, a recently published testing procedure was used on a large dataset of 410 commercial buildings. The model training periods were varied and several prediction accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the model's performance. The results show that using the gradient boosting machine model improved the R-squared prediction accuracy and the CV(RMSE) in more than 80 percent of the cases, when compared to an industry best practice model that is based on piecewise linear regression, and to a random forest algorithm.
The residential sector accounts for 25% of global primary energy consumption. Two methods have previously been proposed to reduce residential energy use associated with the provision of occupant thermal comfort: 1. Occupancy-based HVAC control, operating systems only during confirmed occupancy, and 2. model predictive control (MPC), harnessing a mathematical model and forecasts to find optimal operating strategies. Previous studies estimate the average energy savings of the two methods individually in the range of 21% and 16%, respectively. The research presented herein was carried out to evaluate the energy savings potential in residential buildings by combining both approaches across different climates, house vintages, and occupancy patterns. Occupancy and eight different physical modalities (e.g. CO2 and VOC) data were collected from five homes for time periods of 4–9 weeks. Collected data sets were used to train occupancy prediction models suggested by an extensive literature survey of occupancy model types. The trained prediction models were combined with MPC and detailed EnergyPlus building simulation models to evaluate residential building performance in terms of annual energy savings and thermal comfort, along with discomfort exceedance metrics. Multiple home types and regions were analyzed to understand regional and climate-dependent potential. Based on actual field data, the occupancy models had a prediction inaccuracy between 8% and 35% across the investigated homes. Average occupancy for the collected data ranged from 56% to 86%, a typical range reported in the literature. Building simulations were conducted for three control scenarios: conventional thermostatic control, occupancy-based, and occupancy-based MPC. The results indicate that all advanced strategies improve upon the conventional control, with some scenarios cutting energy use in half with only occasional incurrence of discomfort. The findings indicate that occupancy-aware model predictive residential building control has the potential to drastically reduce energy use and associated emissions while maintaining occupant comfort for both new and existing buildings.
Today's selection of DC microgrid buildings features a diverse set of electrical topologies and turnkey solutions, each with specific design trade-offs and optimizations. Designers desperately need standardized metrics and procedures for measurement and verification (M&V) to analyze and compare the advantages of each DC solution to traditional AC building networks. This work develops M&V procedures for quantifying and comparing the energy efficiency and power quality in buildings. To calculate full-building efficiency, this work introduces the measurement-informed modeling method, a procedure that develops and refines a building's energy model with metered data. To quantify power quality, this work defines a new voltage quality index that applies to both AC and DC buildings. This article describes the equipment, instrumentation, and operation necessary to calculate the efficiency and power quality. It then demonstrates these methods with a set of field tests. We report these M&V procedures can ultimately be used to compare and improve the efficiency and power quality of various DC topologies.
Overview and Intended Use Cases: These scenarios establish a range of futures for U.S. buildings sector energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and consumer costs developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office (BTO). Scout benchmark scenario data are suitable for the following example use cases: setting high-level policy goals for the U.S. buildings sector to 2050 (e.g., X% building CO2 emissions reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2030, Y% reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2050); exploring the effects of key dynamics driving U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions to 2050 that could be affected by policy levers (e.g., raising minimum technology performance levels; accelerating electrification and/or retrofit rates; introducing breakthrough technologies to the market); determining priority segments (regions, building types, and end use/technology types) and sequencing of U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 under a given set of assumptions; and/or identifying the energy and emissions impacts or cost effectiveness of specific technologies or operational approaches of interest—in isolation or after considering competition with other measures in a scenario portfolio. Scenario Summary: A total of 8 scenarios explore the effects of changes across both the demand- and supply-side of building energy use on annual U.S. building energy use and CO2 emissions from 2022–2050. Scenarios are organized into three groups representing low, moderate, and best-case potentials for building decarbonization, respectively.
Occupant behavior has significant impacts on building energy performance and occupant comfort. However, occupant behavior is not well understood and is often oversimplified in the building life cycle, due to its stochastic, diverse, complex, and interdisciplinary nature. The use of simplified methods or tools to quantify the impacts of occupant behavior in building performance simulations significantly contributes to performance gaps between simulated models and actual building energy consumption. Therefore, it is crucial to understand occupant behavior in a comprehensive way, integrating qualitative approaches and data- and model-driven quantitative approaches, and employing appropriate tools to guide the design and operation of low-energy residential and commercial buildings that integrate technological and human dimensions. This paper presents ten questions, highlighting some of the most important issues regarding concepts, applications, and methodologies in occupant behavior research. The proposed questions and answers aim to provide insights into occupant behavior for current and future researchers, designers, and policy makers, and most importantly, to inspire innovative research and applications to increase energy efficiency and reduce energy use in buildings.
Residential building codes and voluntary labeling programs are continually increasing the energy efficiency requirements of residential buildings. Improving a building's thermal enclosure, installing the ductwork in conditioned space, and improving the building's airtightness results in significant reductions in externally-driven sensible and latent cooling loads. As a building's efficiency is improved, occupant-related internal gains become a larger portion of the building sensible and latent loads. Additionally, internal gains are highly uncertain compared to other load components. In this study, we use a stochastic approach to simulate occupant-related internal gains and compare the internal gains to other sensible and latent heat sources in four house efficiency levels in 10 U.S. climates using whole-building energy simulation software. We compare the expected range in occupant-related internal gains to other building characteristics such as cooling set point, air infiltration rate, and mechanical ventilation rate. We show that in high-efficiency homes, sensible internal gains vary from less than 10% to greater than 40% of the building sensible load under peak total cooling conditions depending on climate and internal gain profile. Likewise, latent internal gains vary from less than 10% to more than 60% of the building latent load under peak total cooling and peak dehumidification conditions depending on climate and internal gain profile.
This paper presents a comprehensive review of the open literature on motivations, methods and applications of linking stratified airflow simulation to building energy simulation (BES). First, we reviewed the motivations for coupling prediction models for building energy and indoor environment. This review classified various exchanged data in different applications as interface data and state data, and found that choosing different data sets may lead to varying performance of stability, convergence, and speed for the co-simulation. Second, our review shows that an external coupling scheme is substantially more popular in implementations of co-simulation than an internal coupling scheme. The external coupling is shown to be generally faster in computational speed, as well as easier to implement, maintain and expand than the internal coupling. Third, the external coupling can be carried out in different data synchronization schemes, including static coupling and dynamic coupling. In comparison, the static coupling that performs data exchange only once is computationally faster and more stable than the dynamic coupling. However, concerning accuracy, the dynamic coupling that requires multiple times of data exchange is more accurate than the static coupling. Furthermore, the review identified that the implementation of the external coupling can be achieved through customized interfaces, middleware, and standard interfaces. The customized interface is straightforward but may be limited to a specific coupling application. The middleware is versatile and user-friendly but usually limited in data synchronization schemes. The standard interface is versatile and promising, but may be difficult to implement. Current applications of the co-simulation are mainly energy performance evaluation and control studies. Finally, we discussed the limitations of the current research and provided an overview for future research.
Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting for commercial buildings is crucial for smart grid operations. While smart meters and deep learning models enable forecasting using past data from multiple buildings, data heterogeneity from diverse buildings can reduce model performance. The impact of increasing dataset heterogeneity in time series forecasting, while keeping size and model constant, is understudied. We tackle this issue using the ComStock dataset, which provides synthetic energy consumption data for U.S. commercial buildings. Two curated subsets, identical in size and region but differing in building type diversity, are used to assess the performance of various time series forecasting models, including finetuned open-source foundation models (FMs). The results show that dataset heterogeneity and model architecture have a greater impact on post-training forecasting performance than the parameter count. Moreover, despite the higher computational cost, finetuned FMs demonstrate competitive performance compared to base models trained from scratch.
In this project,the Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) team worked with builders in California to implement wall assemblies meeting a U-value lower than 0.050 Btu/h-ft2-°F. ARBI and its project team members helped builders identify preferred wall designs that met the requirements of their architects, structural engineers, and purchasing agents and that were acceptable to their subcontractors. Construction methods were observed and documented and construction costs obtained from builders were used to inform cost estimates for a range of advanced wall system types and insulation types. Wall framing types of 2 × 6 (16- and 24-in. on center [o.c.]) and double stud were modeled in Building Energy Optimization (BEopt™) software with cavity insulation levels ranging from R-19 to R-33 (double stud) and exterior rigid insulation of R-4, R-6, and R-8.
District geothermal heating and cooling systems (DGHCS) have significant benefits for reducing energy consumption as well as building- and grid-level peak electric demand. Currently, no publicly available tools are available to effectively design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. GeoWISE was originally developed for preliminary design and techno-economic analysis of geothermal heating and cooling systems in an individual commercial or residential building. This paper introduces recent upgrades of GeoWISE that allow users to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. Several new features are implemented in GeoWISE to allow selection and specification of multiple new or existing buildings. A database of information for over 125 million existing U.S. buildings was used in GeoWISE that allows users easily locate existing buildings of interest based on street addresses, and optionally edit information of the buildings (e.g., footprint, vintage, principal functions, number of floors, window-to-wall ratio). Unique energy simulation models of the selected buildings are then automatically created using the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) and EnergyPlus simulations are performed to predict thermal loads of the buildings. A simplified DGHCS is then designed and simulated to predict its energy use. A central borehole heat exchanger (BHE) of the DGHCS is sized using the RowWise algorithm of GHEDesigner to meet the thermal loads within user-specified land areas for installing BHE. The upgraded GeoWISE reports the needed capacity of heating and cooling equipment in each building, design of the central BHE, energy consumption reduction, and energy cost saving resulting from using DGHCS compared with conventional HVAC systems. A case study is showcased using the upgraded GeoWISE to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of a simplified DGHCS.
Insulating glass unit (IGU) degradation has been studied extensively. However, there is limited understanding of how present durability evaluation standards relate to product lifetime. Furthermore, there is debate on how to quantify performance of installed windows over time to better understand degradation processes. More knowledge on these topics is required to link durability evaluation to product lifetime projections based on energy performance. Energy models provide helpful estimations of total annual building energy consumption. However, most models are based on “as installed” performance of envelope components and fail to account for performance degradation. This can lead to an underestimation of building lifetime energy consumption. A better understanding of the relationship between durability and energy performance can inform integration of degradation dynamics into energy modeling software. This will improve lifetime building energy consumption estimations as well as inform appropriate retrofit strategies and timing. This paper reviews current durability literature, various standards for window performance ratings and weathering methods, existing in situ IGU energy performance measurement techniques, and whole-building energy effects. The challenges and disparities among various studies are analyzed and discussed. The authors hope that further work in this area will lead to the development of improved in situ test methods to assess IGU degradation in the field and link this knowledge to improved energy performance modeling approaches.