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At least 397 records · Page 22

Global droughts connected by linkages between drought hubs

Abstract Quantifying the spatial and interconnected structure of regional to continental scale droughts is one of the unsolved global hydrology problems, which is important for understanding the looming risk of mega-scale droughts and the resulting water and food scarcity and their cascading impact on the worldwide economy. Using a Complex Network analysis, this study explores the topological characteristics of global drought events based on the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Event Synchronization is used to measure the strength of association between the onset of droughts at different spatial locations within the time lag of 1-3 months. The network coefficients derived from the synchronization network indicate a highly heterogeneous connectivity structure underlying global drought events. Drought hotspot regions such as Southern Europe, Northeast Brazil, Australia, and Northwest USA behave as drought hubs that synchronize regionally and with other hubs at inter-continental or even inter-hemispheric scale. This observed affinity among drought hubs is equivalent to the ‘rich-club phenomenon’ in Network Theory, where ‘rich’ nodes (here, drought hubs) are tightly interconnected to form a club, implicating the possibility of simultaneous large-scale droughts over multiple continents.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emissions leakage and economic losses may undermine deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions

Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities are being considered strategies to reduce global deforestation and emissions. However, limited market share of importers imposing such restrictions and the potential for emissions leakage could reduce their effectiveness. Moreover, they could result in negative economic implications for producers and consumers. We quantify future emissions and economic implications of oil palm and soybean import restrictions. Current EU restrictions will likely have minimal impact due to the EU’s otherwise small and diminishing share of global palm and soy demand. If extended beyond the EU, such import restrictions could drive reductions in cumulative LUC emissions by 2050 in key oil crop exporting regions— up to 0.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in the rest of Southeast Asia, 3.8% in Argentina and 6.7% in Brazil, relative to a scenario with no import restrictions. However, these key exporters could also face losses ranging $\$$4.1-$\$$61 billion in cumulative agricultural production revenue by 2050.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global trend of methane abatement inventions and widening mismatch with methane emissions

Substantially reducing methane emissions is the fastest way to repress near-term warming and is an essential prerequisite for reaching the 1.5 °C target. However, knowledge about the global invention trend, sectoral and national distribution and international diffusion of methane-targeted abatement technologies (MTATs) remains limited. On the basis of patent data, we identify more than 175,000 MTAT inventions applied between 1990 and 2019 by 133 countries or dependent territories. Our results revealed that after sustained growth of more than fourfold, the number of global high-quality MTAT inventions declined by 3.5% annually from 2010 to 2019. The sectoral and national-level distributions of MTAT inventions and methane emissions are strongly mismatched. Additionally, the international diffusion of MTATs is 11.1% lower than that of overall climate change mitigation technologies and most transfers occur between developed countries or flow to China, South Korea and Brazil; however, other developing countries and the least developed countries are rarely involved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sub-micron level investigation reveals the inaccessibility of stabilized carbon in soil microaggregates

Direct evidence-based approaches are vital to evaluating newly proposed theories on the persistence of soil organic carbon and establishing the contributions of abiotic and biotic controls. Our primary goal was to directly identify the mechanisms of organic carbon stabilization in native-state, free soil microaggregates without disrupting the aggregate microstructure using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy coupled with near edge x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM-NEXAFS). The influence of soil management practices on microaggregate associated-carbon was also assessed. Free, stable soil microaggregates were collected from a tropical agro-ecosystem in Cruz Alta, Brazil. The long-term experimental plots (>25 years) comparing two tillage systems: no-till and till with a complex crop rotation. Based on simultaneously collected multi-elemental associations and speciation, STXM-NEXAFS successfully provided submicron level information on organo-mineral associations. Simple organic carbon sources were found preserved within microaggregates; some still possessing original morphology, suggesting that their stabilization was not entirely governed by the substrate chemistry. Bulk analysis showed higher and younger organic carbon in microaggregates from no-till systems than tilled systems. These results provide direct submicron level evidence that the surrounding environment is involved in stabilizing organic carbon, thus favoring newly proposed concepts on the persistence of soil organic carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Persistent meanders and eddies lead to quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns in a weak western boundary current

The Brazil Current (BC) is a weak western boundary current flowing along the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. It is frequently described as a flow with intense mesoscale activity and relatively low volume transport between 5.0 and 10.0 Sv. We use a 13-year eddy-resolving primitive-equation simulation to show that the presence of persistent meanders and eddies leads to characteristic quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns, aptly extracted through climatological Lagrangian Coherent Structures (cLCS). The cLCS position the surface expression of the BC core along the 2000-m isobath, in excellent visual agreement with high resolution satellite sea-surface temperature and the model Eulerian mean velocity. The cLCS deformation pattern also responds to zonally persistent cross-shelf SSH transition from positive (high) values near coastline to low (negative) values between 200- and 2000-m and back to positive (high) offshore from the 2000-m isobath. Zonally-paired cyclonic and anticyclonic structures are embedded in this transition, also causing the cLCS to deform into chevrons. An efficient transport barrier is identified close to the 200-m isobath confirmed by limited inshore movement of drogued drifters and accurately indicated by an along slope maxima of climatological strength of attraction. We also show that the persistent cyclonic and anticyclonic structures may induce localized cross-shelf transport. Regions of low climatological strength of attraction coincide with large shelves and with stagnant synthetic trajectories. We also show that cLCS accurately depict trajectories initiated at the location of Chevron’s spill (November 2011) as compared to synthetic and satellite-tracked trajectories, and the outline of the oil from that accident. There is also an agreement between the large-scale oil slicks reaching the Brazilian beaches (from August 2019 to February 2020) and the strength of climatological attraction at the coast. Our work also clarifies the influence of persistent mesoscale structures on the regional circulation. The identification and quantitative description of climatological Lagrangian coherent structures is expected to improve the effectiveness of future emergency response to oil spills, contingency planning, rescue operations, larval and fish connectivity assessment, drifter launch strategies, waste pollutant and marine debris dispersion and destination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust observations of land-to-atmosphere feedbacks using the information flows of FLUXNET

Feedbacks between atmospheric processes like precipitation and land surface fluxes including evapotranspiration are difficult to observe, but critical for understanding the role of the land surface in the Earth System. To quantify global surface-atmosphere feedbacks we use results of a process network (PN) applied to 251 eddy covariance sites from the LaThuile database to train a neural network across the global terrestrial surface. There is a strong land–atmosphere coupling between latent (LE) and sensible heat flux (H) and precipitation (P) during summer months in temperate regions, and between H and P during winter, whereas tropical rainforests show little coupling seasonality. Savanna, shrubland, and other semi-arid ecosystems exhibit strong responses in their coupling behavior based on water availability. Feedback couplings from surface fluxes to P peaks at aridity (P/potential evapotranspiration ET p ) values near unity, whereas coupling with respect to clouds, inferred from reduced global radiation, increases as P/ET p approaches zero. Spatial patterns in feedback coupling strength are related to climatic zone and biome type. Information flow statistics highlight hotspots of (1) persistent land–atmosphere coupling in sub-Saharan Africa, (2) boreal summer coupling in the central and southwestern US, Brazil, and the Congo basin and (3) in the southern Andes, South Africa and Australia during austral summer. Our data-driven approach to quantifying land atmosphere coupling strength that leverages the global FLUXNET database and information flow statistics provides a basis for verification of feedback interactions in general circulation models and for predicting locations where land cover change will feedback to climate or weather.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pests, diseases, and aridity have shaped the genome of Corymbia citriodora

Corymbia citriodora is a member of the predominantly Southern Hemisphere Myrtaceae family, which includes the eucalypts (Eucalyptus, Corymbia and Angophora; ~800 species). Corymbia is grown for timber, pulp and paper, and essential oils in Australia, South Africa, Asia, and Brazil, maintaining a high-growth rate under marginal conditions due to drought, poor-quality soil, and biotic stresses. To dissect the genetic basis of these desirable traits, we sequenced and assembled the 408 Mb genome of Corymbia citriodora, anchored into eleven chromosomes. Comparative analysis with Eucalyptus grandis reveals high synteny, although the two diverged approximately 60 million years ago and have different genome sizes (408 vs 641 Mb), with few large intra-chromosomal rearrangements. C. citriodora shares an ancient whole-genome duplication event with E. grandis but has undergone tandem gene family expansions related to terpene biosynthesis, innate pathogen resistance, and leaf wax formation, enabling their successful adaptation to biotic/abiotic stresses and arid conditions of the Australian continent.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Primary and secondary organics in tropical Amazonian rainforest aerosols: Chiral analysis of 2-methyltetrols

This work presents the application of a newly developed method to facilitate the distinction between primary and secondary organic compounds in ambient aerosols based on their chiral analysis. The organic constituents chosen for chiral analysis are the four stereomers of the 2-methyltetrols, (2R,3S)- and (2S,3R)- methylerythritol and (2S,3S)- and (2R,3R)- methylthreitol. Ambient PM10 aerosol samples were collected between June 2008 and June 2009 near Manaus, Brazil, in a remote tropical rainforest environment of central Amazonia. The samples were analyzed for the presence of these four stereomers because qualitatively, in a previous study, they have been demonstrated to have partly primary origins. Thus the origin of these compounds may be primary and secondary from the biosynthesis and oxidation processes of isoprene within plants and also in the atmosphere. Using authentic standards, the quantified concentrations were in average 78.2 and 72.8 ng m-3 for (2R,3S)- and (2S,3R)- methylerythritol and 3.1 and 3.3 ng m-3 for (2S,3S)- and (2R,3R)- methylthreitol during the dry season and 7.1, 6.5, 2.0, and 2.2 ng m-3 during the wet season, respectively. Furthermore, these compounds were found to be outside the confidence interval for racemic mixtures (enantiomeric fraction, Ef = 0.5 -0.01) in nearly all the samples, with deviations of up to 32 % (Ef = 0.61) for (2R,3S)-methylerythritol and 47 % (Ef = 0.65) for (2S,3S)-methylthreitol indicating (99% confidence level) biologically-produced 2-methyltetrols. The minimum primary origin contribution ranged between 0.19 and 29.67 ng m-3 for the 2-methylerythritols and between 0.15 and 1.2 ng m-3 for the 2-methylthreitols. The strong correlation of the diatereomers (racemic 2-methylerythritol and 2-methylthreitol) in the wet season implied a secondary origin. Assuming the maximum secondary contribution in the dry season, the secondary fraction in the wet season was 81-99 % and in the dry season, 10 - 95 %. Nevertheless, from the total 2-methyltetrol mass, the secondary mass represented 31 % whereas the primary 69 %. These results could have been expected for PM10 aerosols and might be different for fine particles at the same site. In addition, correlations with isoprene emission estimates for this site only showed an anti-correlation with 2-methylthreitol suggesting their direct emission from biological activity. The present study reinforces the importance of the analysis of chiral organic compounds to correctly assess the contribution of primary biogenic emissions and isoprene oxidation products to biogenic secondary organic aerosol.

Gonzalez, Nelida↗

A Comprehensive View of Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity

In this study, we assess global hydropower potential using runoff and stream flow data, along with turbine technology performance, cost assumptions, and environmental considerations. The results provide the first comprehensive quantification of global hydropower potential including gross, technical, economic, and exploitable estimates. Total global potential of gross, technical, economic, and exploitable hydropower are estimated to be approximately 128, 39, 32, and 27 petawatt hours per year, respectively. The economic and exploitable potential of hydropower are calculated at less than 9 cents/kWh. We find that hydropower has the potential to supply a significant portion of the world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by region. Globally, hydropower can potentially supply about 1.5 times the total electricity demand in 2005. Estimated hydropower resources in a number of countries are sufficient to accommodate their demand for electricity in 2005, e.g., Brazil (5.6 times), Russia (4.6 times), and Canada (3.5 times). A sensitivity analysis indicates that hydropower estimates are not highly sensitive to five key parameters: design flow (varying by -2% to +1% at less than 9 cents/kWh), cost and financing options (by -7% to +6%), turbine efficiency (by -10% to +10%), stream flow (by -10% to +10%), and fixed charge rate (by -6% to 5%). This sensitivity analysis emphasizes the reliable role of hydropower for future energy systems, when compared to other renewable energy resources with larger uncertainty in their future potentials.

Zhou, Yuyu↗

Development of an ammonia pretreatment that creates synergies between biorefineries and advanced biomass logistics models

In this study, a novel ammonia-based pretreatment for densified lignocellulosic biomass was developed to reduce ammonia usage and integrate with viable biomass logistics scenarios. The COmpacted Biomass with Recycled Ammonia (COBRA) pretreatment performed at 100 °C allows >95% conversion of sugarcane bagasse (SCB) carbohydrates into soluble monomeric and oligomeric sugars (glucose and xylose) using industrially relevant 6% glucan loading (~21% solids loading) enzymatic hydrolysis conditions at reduced enzyme loadings. Pretreatment via COBRA with simultaneous lignin extraction (COBRA-LE) improved Saccharomyces cerevisiae 424A(LNH-ST) metabolic yield from 89% to 97.5% relative to COBRA without delignification, allowing a process ethanol yield of 71.6%. A technoeconomic analysis on SCB biorefining to ethanol in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, compared COBRA to other mature technologies, such as AFEX and steam-explosion. Amongst all scenarios studied, biorefineries based on COBRA-LE pretreatment offered the lowest average minimum ethanol selling price of US$1.45 per gallon ethanol. COBRA pretreatment was subsequently tested on perennial grasses and hardwoods, and >80% total sugar yields were achieved for all cases.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Monitoring of asteroids in cometary orbits and activated asteroids through archival images and new observations

Transitional objects are minor bodies that share some characteristics with asteroids and others with comets. These objects include asteroids in cometary orbits (ACOs), which behave dynamically like comets, but lack observed activity, while activated asteroids (AAs) follow typical asteroidal orbits, but have shown dust ejections. The monitoring of a set of these objects carried out in 2015 and 2016 is continued using archival images from various observatories and new data from the IMPACTON telescope in Brazil. Two techniques were applied to detect activity: (i) surface brightness profiles were compared with those of field stars to identify widening, and (ii) the magnitudes reported in the Minor Planet Center, combined with our observations, were reduced and analyzed to identify abrupt brightness increases as a function of heliocentric distance. We analyzed the surface brightness profiles of 133 ACOs and 7 AAs. To study the reduced magnitude, we obtained data from the 705 ACOs that were known at the time of the analysis. Together with the data from our previous work, our analysis covered 23% of the total known ACOs; 8 deviated slightly in the surface brightness profile, 6 brightened in the reduced magnitude, and one object is in common in both samples. A very low percentage of objects might show activity (4% of the sample with brightness profiles and <1% in the reduced magnitudes). These results would rule out a slow transition from active to inert. Regarding AAs, 4 showed activity, and 3 of them matched previously reported periods, while the data we analyzed for P/2015 X 6 were obtained 19 days before the first existing activity report. The activity episodes of these objects are very restricted in time and do not always occur in the same region of the orbit.

asteroids: general↗

Elastic scattering and total reaction cross section for the {sup 6}He+{sup 58}Ni system

Elastic scattering measurements of {sup 6}He + {sup 58}Ni system have been performed at the laboratory energy of 21.7 MeV. The {sup 6}He secondary beam was produced by a transfer reaction {sup 9}Be ({sup 7}Li, {sup 6}He) and impinged on {sup 58}Ni and {sup 197}Au targets, using the Radioactive Ion Beam (RIB) facility, RIBRAS, installed in the Pelletron Laboratory of the Institute of Physics of the University of São Paulo, Brazil. The elastic angular distribution was obtained in the angular range from 15° to 80° in the center of mass frame. Optical model calculations have been performed using a hybrid potential to fit the experimental data. The total reaction cross section was derived.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Mário Schenberg: Physicist, politician and art critic

Mário Schenberg is considered one of the greatest theoretical physicists of Brazil. He worked in different fields of physics including thermodynamics, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, general relativity, astrophysics and mathematics. He was assistant of the Ukrainian naturalized Italian physicist Gleb Wataghin and worked with prestigious physicists like as the Brazilians José Leite Lopes and César Lattes, the Russian-born American George Gamow and the Indian astrophysicist Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar. Besides, he was also an active politician and critic of art.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

It’s a catfish! Novel approaches are needed to study the effects of rapid decompression on benthic species

Barotrauma due to rapid decompression has been recorded as the most common injury among fish captured in the tailrace of hydropower dams in Brazil, with catfishes representing the majority of them. Nevertheless, studies investigating barotrauma on catfish are scarce, with the majority determining dose-response curves and thresholds of pressure changes for nektonic species as salmonids. Experiments conducted with Pimelodus pictus showed that the current hypo-hyperbaric chambers used to study barotrauma in nektonic species have limitations when applied to benthic groups. The negative buoyancy showed by the catfish prevent the definition of the acclimation pressure of the fish prior to exposure to decompression and, therefore, hinder calculation of the ratio of pressure change (RPC). RPC has been considered the main factor explaining the likelihood of barotrauma on fish. Since its calculation is restricted for benthic species, new approaches deemed to be needed to complement barotrauma studies with this group. We aimed to discuss the limitations observed for studies with benthonic species and present potential methods to overcome them. The diversification of approaches for barotrauma studies with benthonic species is critical to provide information for the development of mitigation and new turbine designs that would improve protection of this group.

Do Vale Beirao, Bernardo↗

Systematic characterization of unknown compounds via dimensionality reduction of time series

Analysis of ambient aerosols provides valuable insight into particle sources and formation chemistry. However, due to the complexity of atmospheric data and the dynamic nature of aerosol composition, a substantial fraction of data often become discarded by conventional analysis methods. Furthermore, a large fraction of chemical species within those data are unidentifiable due to a lack of matching spectral information, resulting in suboptimal characterization of chemical composition. Previous work has demonstrated techniques for cataloging analytes in a chromatographic dataset by deconvolution of mass spectra, but integration of these analytes throughout a large dataset remains time consuming. Here, we present a method to automatically identify an ion for quantitation for single-ion chromatogram based peak fitting and integration, enabling comprehensive integration of analytes with minimal user interaction. The resulting time series are clustered with a machine-learning based dimensionality reduction technique to systematically investigate the underlying characteristics of the categorized analytes and gain new insights into the chemical composition and physicochemical properties of the unidentifiable analytes. We apply these methods to existing atmospheric datasets collected in Manacapuru, Brazil during the GoAmazon2014/5 campaign to identify new analytes and interpret their variability and transformations in the atmosphere. The analysis results generate 408 time series from cataloged analytes of interest, and the clustering of those time series with spherical k-means results in 8 distinct clusters. We find the analytes form clusters based on their distinct physicochemical properties, demonstrating the method’s ability to systematically identify and selectively filter contaminants and instrumental analytes and characterize the unidentifiable analytes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emerging Opportunities in High-Energy X-ray Science: The Diffraction-Limited Storage Ring Frontier

The worldwide march to electron storage rings with diffraction-limited photon properties in the X-ray regime is well underway. First out of the gate is MAX-IV in Sweden, scheduled for operation in 2016, followed by SIRIUS in Brazil in 2018; both are greenfield rings operating at 3 GeV with ~520 m circumference and emittances of ~250 pm-rad. They will be followed by the upgrade of ESRF, operating at 6 GeV with a target emittance of 150 pm-rad and operational date of 2020. The upgrade of the APS at Argonne National Laboratory (6 GeV, 60 pm-rad) is anticipated to follow shortly thereafter.

Almer, Jon↗

Optical/near-infrared polarization survey of Sh 2-29: Magnetic fields, dense cloud fragmentations, and anomalous dust grain sizes

Sh 2-29 is a conspicuous star-forming region marked by the presence of massive embedded stars as well as several notable interstellar structures. In this research, our goals were to determine the role of magnetic fields and to study the size distribution of interstellar dust particles within this turbulent environment. We have used a set of optical and near-infrared polarimetric data obtained at OPD/LNA (Brazil) and CTIO (Chile), correlated with extinction maps, Two Micron All Sky Survey data, and images from the Digitized Sky Survey and Spitzer. The region's most striking feature is a swept out interstellar cavity whose polarimetric maps indicate that magnetic field lines were dragged outward, piling up along its borders. This led to a higher magnetic strength value (≈400 μG) and an abrupt increase in polarization degree, probably due to an enhancement in alignment efficiency. Furthermore, dense cloud fragmentations with peak A{sub V} between 20 and 37 mag were probably triggered by its expansion. The presence of 24 μm point-like sources indicates possible newborn stars inside this dense environment. A statistical analysis of the angular dispersion function revealed areas where field lines are aligned in a well-ordered pattern, seemingly due to compression effects from the H II region expansion. Finally, Serkowski function fits were used to study the ratio of the total-to-selective extinction, revealing a dual population of anomalous grain particle sizes. This trend suggests that both effects of coagulation and fragmentation of interstellar grains are present in the region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗