Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “2050”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Urban agrivoltaics enhance crop resilience and food-energy synergies in a changing climate

Urban agrivoltaics, the synergistic integration of solar photovoltaics with urban agriculture, offers a transformative solution to food and energy insecurity, which are major barriers to sustainable urban development, especially in low-income urban areas facing intensified heat and water stress due to climate change. With 70% of the global population projected to live in cities by 2050, maximizing underutilized urban spaces is critical. Our study presents the first evaluation of ground-based agrivoltaics in an urban context, demonstrating that, while early-season yields may decline due to light reduction in temperate climates, productivity rebounds during periods of extreme heat, extending harvest windows and enhancing crop resilience. As cities seek climate-adaptive infrastructure, converting just a fraction of vacant land and rooftops to urban agrivoltaics can yield significant co-benefits such as generating renewable energy for thousands of households while supplying fresh produce to help alleviate food deserts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings indicate that the negative effects of climate mitigation on global hunger could be partially offset by the ozone reduction impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reduced methane recovery at high pressure due to methane trapping in shale nanopores

By 2050, shale gas production is expected to exceed three-quarters of total US natural gas production. However, current unconventional hydrocarbon gas recovery rates are only around 20%. Maximizing production of this natural resource thus necessitates improved understanding of the fundamental mechanisms underlying hydrocarbon retention within the nanoporous shale matrix. In this study, we integrated molecular simulation with high-pressure small-angle neutron scattering (SANS), an experimental technique uniquely capable of characterizing methane behavior in situ within shale nanopores at elevated pressures. Samples were created using Marcellus shale, a gas-generative formation comprising the largest natural gas field in the United States. Our results demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional wisdom that elevated drawdown pressure increases methane recovery, a higher peak pressure led to the trapping of dense, liquid-like methane in sub-2 nm radius nanopores, which comprise more than 90% of the measured nanopore volume, due to irreversible deformation of the kerogen matrix. These findings have critical implications for pressure management strategies to maximize hydrocarbon recovery, as well as broad implications for fluid behavior under confinement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large global variations in the carbon dioxide removal potential of seaweed farming due to biophysical constraints

Abstract Estimates suggest that over 4 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide (Gt-CO 2 year −1 ) be removed from the atmosphere by 2050 to meet international climate goals. One strategy for carbon dioxide removal is seaweed farming; however its global potential remains highly uncertain. Here, we apply a dynamic seaweed growth model that includes growth-limiting mechanisms, such as nitrate supply, to estimate the global potential yield of four types of seaweed. We estimate that harvesting 1 Gt year −1 of seaweed carbon would require farming over 1 million km 2 of the most productive exclusive economic zones, located in the equatorial Pacific; the cultivation area would need to be tripled to attain an additional 1 Gt year −1 of harvested carbon, indicating dramatic reductions in carbon harvest efficiency beyond the most productive waters. Improving the accuracy of annual harvest yield estimates requires better understanding of biophysical constraints such as seaweed loss rates (e.g., infestation, disease, grazing, wave erosion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO 2 in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO 2 in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO 2 /year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035

Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the coming year. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sustainable energy and fuels from biomass: a review focusing on hydrothermal biomass processing

Fossil fuels are being replaced with renewable energy resources (biomass and biomass waste, solar, geothermal, wind, etc.) to ensure sustainable development, reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, address environmental challenges including climate change. Today, biomass produces 5 × 10 19 kJ of energy/year, which corresponds to 10% of the annual global energy consumption. Considering the variety of biomass resources, this value is predicted to reach 150 × 10 19 kJ by 2050. Biomass may become even more important for use as an energy resource and chemical raw material in the 21st century. Hydrothermal biomass conversion stands out as a promising and alternative technology. Methods such as traditional gasification and pyrolysis require dry biomass. Hydrothermal techniques have been developed to eliminate the cost and time required for drying biomass. The purpose of this process is to decompose biomass with a high moisture content into small molecules and reduce its oxygen content to obtain liquid fuels or valuable chemicals. Finally, this review presents the current and future state of energy, energy sources, biomass properties and biomass conversion technologies with a focus on hydrothermal technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing an innovation system to support profitable electro- and bio-catalytic carbon upgrade

Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) can mitigate an estimated 14–20% of CO 2 emissions by 2050. Here, we evaluate an integrated electrocatalysis and biocatalysis CCUS pathway, using externally-supplied renewable electricity to convert over 12 MtCO 2 to poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) via methanol and formate intermediates. A techno-economic and policy-innovation analysis provides insight into global CCUS innovation. Results suggest that innovation should focus on improving methanol faradaic efficiency, formate biocatalysis efficiency, electrocatalysis current density, and catalyst performance. Methanol and formate composition influences performance, but higher formate content can improve economics by US$3.8B over a 30 year lifetime. Profitable scenarios hinge on reducing methanol separation costs – through innovation or reduced energy usage – along with cheap renewable electricity and/or carbon pricing. Our evaluation of the global innovation status signifies that coordinated strategies are required to realise emissions cuts from CCUS. Innovation can be spurred by targeted investments and policies that promote emissions reductions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-cryogenic direct air capture using adsorbents

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 is a key component in the portfolio of negative emissions technologies for mitigating global warming. However, even with the most potent amine sorbents, large-scale DAC deployment remains limited by high energy and capital costs. Recently, adsorbents relying on weak interactions with CO 2 have emerged as a potential alternative, thanks to their rapid adsorption kinetics and superior long-term stability, particularly under sub-ambient conditions (∼253 K). Despite these advantages, their use is hindered by the need for a water-removal process, location-specific constraints, and insufficient working capacity even in cold climates. In this study, we hypothesized that further reducing the adsorption temperature to a near-cryogenic range (160–220 K) could enable cost-effective DAC by utilizing the full potential of physisorbents. We primarily consider integrating DAC with a relatively untapped source of cold energy—liquified natural gas (LNG) regasification—to perform near-cryogenic DAC. From large-scale molecular simulations, Zeolite 13X and CALF-20 were identified as promising candidates. These materials were subsequently examined through experiments, including breakthrough analyses at 195 K. Their high CO 2 sorption capacity (4.5–5.5 mmol g −1 ), combined with a low desorption enthalpy and robust long-term stability, led to a threefold reduction in the levelized cost of capture (down to 68.2 USD per tonne CO 2 ). Estimates of the global LNG regasification resource suggest that LNG–DAC coupling could potentially enable the capture of 103–142 megatonnes of CO 2 annually as of 2050.

Kim, Seo-Yul [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atl↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent advances in chemical recycling and upcycling of plastic waste into valuable materials, chemicals, and energy: a comprehensive review

The global plastic waste crisis has increased in severity in recent years: annual plastic production is projected to reach 500 million metric tons by 2025, and plastic waste accumulation is expected to surpass 12 billion metric tons. Despite these growing volumes, only ∼9% of plastic waste is currently recycled; the majority is either landfilled, incinerated, or mismanaged, contributing to escalating greenhouse gas emissions—from 1.7 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 -eq.) in 2015 to an estimated 6.5 Gt CO 2 -eq. by 2050—and physical environmental pollution. This review provides a comprehensive overview of advanced plastic upcycling strategies to address this issue and recover value from diverse plastic waste streams. Recent developments in solvent-based dissolution, chemical depolymerization, and thermochemical conversions are examined for major plastic types, including polyolefins, polycondensation polymers, and PVC. Underlying reaction pathways, catalyst designs, and processing parameters that govern product selectivity, efficiency, and conversion yields are discussed in depth. Emerging techniques such as microwave-assisted depolymerization, tandem catalysis, and co-processing approaches are highlighted for their potential to enhance efficiency under milder conditions. Emphasis is also placed on the production of high-value products such as monomers, naphtha-range hydrocarbons, and syngas, and discussion is provided on catalyst stability, contaminant removal, scalability, life cycle effects on the environment, and technoeconomic viability. Finally, the review outlines future research directions focused on catalyst innovation, integrated process design, supportive policy frameworks, and interdisciplinary collaboration. All recommendations are aimed at accelerating large-scale implementation of plastic upcycling technologies and advancing the global circular plastics economy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking liquid chemisorption in solid matrices: immobilized deep eutectic solvent-ZIF-8 composites for next-generation CO 2 capture

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires scalable and durable CO 2 capture solutions, with direct air capture (DAC) gaining increasing prominence. Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have emerged as promising candidates due to their strong chemisorptive properties, but their liquid-phase nature limits integration into solid systems. In this study, we introduce a solid–liquid hybrid approach by immobilizing [TEAB][TEPA] 2 , a highly CO 2 -reactive DES, onto various supports via non-covalent immobilization. This strategy induces solid-like behavior while retaining molecular-level reactivity of the DES. Among the supports including ZIF-8, zeolite Y, zirconia, and alumina, the [TEAB][TEPA] 2 @ZIF-8-56% composite demonstrated promising CO 2 uptake capacity of 2.00 mmol g −1 adsorbent at 1 bar, 1.48 at 0.15 bar, 0.96 at 0.01 bar, and 0.59 at 0.4 mbar. Particularly, we can observe that the chemisorption capacity under 400 ppm conditions is successfully introduced into ZIF-8, whereas pristine ZIF-8 showed negligible uptake under these same conditions. Breakthrough experiments confirmed robust capture behavior under humid conditions. The composite exhibited excellent cycling stability over 100 capture-release cycles, supported by thermogravimetric analysis. In situ DRIFTS verified that the chemisorptive nature of the DES remained intact after immobilization. Additional characterization studies, including FTIR, PXRD, N 2 physisorption, and XPS depth profiling, revealed partial DES infiltration and strong interfacial interactions. Comparative results using alumina-based composites underscored the importance of microporosity in stability. Finally, these findings suggest that DES-MOF composites hold promise as carbon capture materials, bridging liquid-phase functionality and solid-state robustness.

Yoo, Yunsung [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (Un↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prioritizing circular economy strategies for sustainable PV deployment at the TW scale

Global decarbonization requires an unprecedented scale-up of photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing and deployment. The material demand and eventual end of life management associated with multi-TW scale deployment poses many challenges. Circular Economy (CE) and it's associated R-Actions (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle) have been proposed to mitigate end of life management and material sourcing concerns. However, CE metrics typically focus on a single product and only consider mass, excluding energy flows. This work leverages the PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool to quantify the deployment, mass, and energy impacts of R-Actions and proposed sustainable PV designs in the context of achieving energy transition deployment goals (75 TW in 2050). 13 module scenarios are established and evaluated across 6 capacity, mass and energy metrics to identify tradeoffs and priorities. We find that increasing module efficiency can reduce near-term material demands up to 30% and improve energy metrics by up to 9%. Material circularity (recycling) can minimize lifecycle wastes and reduce material demands at the cost of higher energy demands. Increasing module lifetime, including reliability improvements and reuse strategies, is effective at reducing both material (>10%) and energy demands (24%). Uniquely, lifetime improvements maximize benefits and minimize the harms across all six metrics while achieving multi-TW scale deployment.

Photovoltaics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Standoff detection of chemical plumes from high explosive open detonations using a swept-wavelength external cavity quantum cascade laser

A swept-wavelength external cavity quantum cascade laser (ECQCL) is used to perform standoff detection of combustion gases in a plume generated from an outdoor high-explosive (HE) open detonation. The swept-ECQCL system was located at a standoff distance of 830 m from a 41kg charge of LX-14(polymer-bonded high explosive) and was used to measure the infrared transmission/absorption through the post-detonation plume as it propagated through the beam path. The swept-ECQCL was operated continuously to record broadband absorption spectra at 200hz rate over a spectral range from 2050 to 2230 cm -1 (4.48 - 4.88 μm). Fitting of measured spectra was used to determine time-resolved column densities of CO, CO 2 , H 2 O, and N 2 O. Analysis of visible video imagery was used to provide timing correlations and to estimate plume dimensions, from which gas mixing ratios were estimated. Measured emission factors and modified combustion efficiency show good agreement with previously reported values.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Formation of a Ti–Cu(111) single atom alloy: Structure and CO binding

A single atom Ti–Cu(111) surface alloy can be generated by depositing small amounts of Ti onto Cu(111) at slightly elevated surface temperatures (~500 to 600 K). Here, scanning tunneling microscopy shows that small Ti-rich islands covered by a Cu single layer form preferentially on ascending step edges of Cu(111) during Ti deposition below about 400 K but that a Ti–Cu(111) alloy replaces these small islands during deposition between 500 and 600 K, producing an alloy in the brims of the steps. Larger partially Cu-covered Ti-containing islands also form on the Cu(111) terraces at temperatures between 300 and 700 K. After surface exposure to CO at low temperatures, reflection absorption infrared spectroscopy (RAIRS) reveals distinct C–O stretch bands at 2102 and 2050 cm –1 attributed to CO adsorbed on Cu-covered Ti-containing domains vs sites in the Ti–Cu(111) surface alloy. Calculations using density functional theory (DFT) suggest that the lower frequency C–O stretch band originates specifically from CO adsorbed on isolated Ti atoms in the Ti–Cu(111) surface alloy and predicts a higher C–O stretch frequency for CO adsorbed on Cu above subsurface Ti ensembles. DFT further predicts that CO preferentially adsorbs in flat-lying configurations on contiguous Ti surface structures with more than one Ti atom and thus that CO adsorbed on such structures should not be observed with RAIRS. The ability to generate a single atom Ti–Cu(111) alloy will provide future opportunities to investigate the surface chemistry promoted by a representative early transition metal dopant on a Cu(111) host surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and observations of North Atlantic cyclones: Implications for U.S. Offshore wind energy

To meet the Biden-Harris administration's goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, expansion of wind energy into U.S. territorial waters prone to tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is essential. This requires a deeper understanding of cyclone-related risks and the development of robust, resilient offshore wind energy systems. Here, this paper provides a comprehensive review of state-of-the-science measurement and modeling capabilities for studying TCs and ETCs, and their impacts across various spatial and temporal scales. We explore measurement capabilities for environments influenced by TCs and ETCs, including near-surface and vertical profiles of critical variables that characterize these cyclones. The capabilities and limitations of Earth system and mesoscale models are assessed for their effectiveness in capturing atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions that influence TC/ETC-induced risks under a changing climate. Additionally, we discuss microscale modeling capabilities designed to bridge scale gaps from the weather scale (a few kilometers) to the turbine scale (dozens to a few meters). We also review machine learning (ML)-based, data-driven models for simulating TC/ETC events at both weather and wind turbine scales. Special attention is given to extreme metocean conditions like extreme wind gusts, rapid wind direction changes, and high waves, which pose threats to offshore wind energy infrastructure. Finally, the paper outlines the research challenges and future directions needed to enhance the resilience and design of next-generation offshore wind turbines against extreme weather conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Sustainability Index: a new tool to breed for reduced greenhouse-gas emissions intensity in Australian dairy cattle

Context The Australian dairy industry has a target to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions intensity by 30% between 2015 and 2030. At the animal level, apart from nutritional modifications and other management practices, selecting animals that emit less GHG can be a cost-effective and long-term strategy. Given the world’s demand for protein is increasing, selecting for animals with lower GHG emissions per unit of production, i.e. emissions intensity, is a realistic approach that addresses the key issue of emissions reduction while maintaining farm productivity. Aim To develop a selection index for Australian dairy cattle to breed for reduced emissions intensity. Methods The Sustainability Index was built based on the existing Balanced Performance Index (BPI) but placed greater emphasis on production, survival, health and feed efficiency. Key results In August 2022, DataGene released the Sustainability Index that can be used by dairy farmers to select animals with lower environmental footprints. Compared with BPI, the weights for protein, fat, survival, mastitis resistance and feed efficiency increased by 2.6-, 1.4-, 2.8-, 1.3- and 3.8-fold respectively. It is expected that with the use of the Sustainability Index, emissions intensity will be reduced by 7.64%, 8.96% and 5.52% respectively in Holstein, Jersey and Red breeds by 2050, compared with the 2015 level. The corresponding values when selecting for BPI were 6.34%, 7.91% and 5.23% respectively. However, the trade-off in BPI when using the Sustainability Index will be AUD0.79, AUD0.83, AUD0.22 per cow per year for Holstein, Jersey and Red breeds respectively. Conclusions The current profit index BPI has contributed to reduction in emissions intensity. To enhance the rate of improvement in emissions intensity, the Sustainability Index can be used with minimal impacts on profit. Implications To breed for lower emissions intensity, farmers can select animals with high Sustainability Index values that are published on DataVat (datavat.com.au) and the Good Bulls App. To lower gross emissions, combinations of additional measures such as management of diet, adjustment to animal numbers, management of stored manure, and appropriate use of carbon neutral fertiliser, renewable fuels and energy, will need to be adopted on farms.

Agriculture↗