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DOE OSTI2022

Grand Teton National Park Federal Fleet Tiger Team EVSE Site Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps federal agencies reduce petroleum consumption and increase alternative fuel use through its resources for sustainable federal fleets. A key element of this assistance involves supporting agencies in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Fleet electrification is part of a federal policy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide and a carbon pollution-free electricity sector, established through two executive orders (EOs) - EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad and EO 14057: Catalyzing America's Clean Energy Industries and Jobs through Federal Sustainability. This site report supports the development of a ZEV deployment plan for the Grand Teton National Park (GRTE) that can ultimately be incorporated into the overall Department of the Interior ZEV fleet strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yellowstone National Park Federal Fleet Tiger Team EVSE Site Assessment [Slides]

The U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps federal agencies reduce petroleum consumption and increase alternative fuel use through its resources for sustainable federal fleets. A key element of this assistance involves supporting agencies in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Fleet electrification is part of a federal policy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide and a carbon pollution-free electricity sector, established through two executive orders (EOs) - EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad and EO 14057: Catalyzing America's Clean Energy Industries and Jobs through Federal Sustainability. This site report supports the development of a ZEV deployment plan for Yellowstone National Park, which can ultimately be incorporated into the overall U.S. Department of the Interior ZEV fleet strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecosystem consequences of a nitrogen-fixing proto-organelle

Microscale symbioses can be critical to ecosystem functions, but the mechanisms of these interactions in nature are often cryptic. Here, we use a combination of stable isotope imaging and tracing to reveal carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) exchanges among three symbiotic primary producers that fuel a salmon-bearing river food web. Bulk isotope analysis, nanoSIMS (secondary ion mass spectrometry) isotope imaging, and density centrifugation for quantitative stable isotope probing enabled quantification of organism-specific C- and N-fixation rates from the subcellular scale to the ecosystem. After winters with riverbed-scouring floods, the macroalga Cladophora glomerata uses nutrients in spring runoff to grow streamers up to 10 m long. During summer flow recession, riverine N concentrations wane and Cladophora becomes densely epiphytized by three species of Epithemia, diatoms with N-fixing endosymbionts (proto-organelles) descended from a free-living Crocosphaera cyanobacterium. Over summertime epiphyte succession on Cladophora, N-fixation rates increased as Epithemia spp. became dominant, Cladophora C-fixation declined to near zero, and Epithemia C-fixation increased. Carbon transfer to caddisflies grazing on Cladophora with high densities of Epithemia was 10-fold higher than C transfer to caddisflies grazing Cladophora with low Epithemia loads. In response to demand for N, Epithemia allocates high levels of newly fixed C to its endosymbiont. Consequently, these endosymbionts have the highest rates of C and N accumulation of any taxon in this tripartite symbiosis during the biologically productive season and can produce one of the highest areal rates of N-fixation reported in any river ecosystem.

Marks, Jane C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff,↗
DOE OSTI2022

Golden Gate National Recreation Area Federal Fleet Tiger Team EVSE Site Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps federal agencies reduce petroleum consumption and increase alternative fuel use through its resources for sustainable federal fleets. A key element of this assistance involves supporting agencies in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Fleet electrification is part of a federal policy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide and a carbon pollution-free electricity sector, established through two executive orders (EOs) - EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad and EO 14057: Catalyzing America's Clean Energy Industries and Jobs through Federal Sustainability. This site report supports the development of a ZEV deployment plan for the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, which can ultimately be incorporated into the overall U.S. Department of the Interior ZEV fleet strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recognizing Institutions that Prepare Students for 21st Century Building Careers

Buildings play a significant role in reaching the White House's goal of a net-zero emissions economy by 2050, so it is critical that building professionals are prepared to design and construct high-efficiency, low-carbon buildings powered by renewables. The U.S. Department of Energy's Zero Energy Design Designation recognizes post-secondary academic programs that prepare students for 21st century building careers. ZEDD is a three-year designation, and as of 2023 almost 40 programs of study from more than 25 institutions have been recognized and supported by DOE for their great work. The University of Cincinnati received the ZEDD designation for the Net Zero Energy Design Track in Architectural Engineering Program. Tracks, majors, minors, and certificates are all eligible for ZEDD. In recent interviews with faculty from the University of Cincinnati and Appalachian State University about their experiences with ZEDD, many common topics came up. Both faculty members mentioned their students who graduate with ZEDD on their resume are often the only people in their future design firms who understand and can create net zero energy designs.

buildings↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Declining carbohydrate content of Sitka-spruce treesdying from seawater exposure

Abstract Increasing sea levels associated with climate change threaten the survival of coastal forests, yet the mechanisms by which seawater exposure causes tree death remain poorly understood. Despite the potentially crucial role of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves in tree survival, their dynamics in the process of death under seawater exposure are unknown. Here we monitored progressive tree mortality and associated NSC storage in Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees dying under ecosystem-scale increases in seawater exposure in western Washington, USA. All trees exposed to seawater, because of monthly tidal intrusion, experienced declining crown foliage during the sampling period, and individuals with a lower percentage of live foliated crown (PLFC) died faster. Tree PLFC was strongly correlated with subsurface salinity and needle ion contents. Total NSC concentrations in trees declined remarkably with crown decline, and reached extremely low levels at tree death (2.4% and 1.6% in leaves and branches, respectively, and 0.4% in stems and roots). Starch in all tissues was almost completely consumed, while sugars remained at a homeostatic level in foliage. The decreasing NSC with closer proximity to death and near zero starch at death are evidences that carbon starvation occurred during Sitka-spruce mortality during seawater exposure. Our results highlight the importance of carbon storage as an indicator of tree mortality risks under seawater exposure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on CaH12CO9 by Materials Project

CaCH12O9 crystallizes in the monoclinic C2/c space group. The structure is zero-dimensional and consists of four calcium carbonate hydrate (1:1:6) molecules. Ca2+ is bonded in a 8-coordinate geometry to eight O2- atoms. There are a spread of Ca–O bond distances ranging from 2.39–2.60 Å. C4+ is bonded in a trigonal planar geometry to three O2- atoms. All C–O bond lengths are 1.30 Å. There are six inequivalent H1+ sites. In the first H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 1.00 Å. In the second H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 0.99 Å. In the third H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 0.99 Å. In the fourth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 1.00 Å. In the fifth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 1.00 Å. In the sixth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 0.99 Å. There are five inequivalent O2- sites. In the first O2- site, O2- is bonded in a water-like geometry to one Ca2+ and two H1+ atoms. In the second O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to one Ca2+ and one C4+ atom. In the third O2- site, O2- is bonded in a water-like geometry to one Ca2+ and two H1+ atoms. In the fourth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one C4+ atom. In the fifth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted water-like geometry to one Ca2+ and two H1+ atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on NaAlH22C10(NO6)2 by Materials Project

NaAlC7H13(NO6)2CH2CH3CH4 crystallizes in the triclinic P1 space group. The structure is zero-dimensional and consists of one hydrogen carbon molecule, one methane molecule, one methane molecule, and one NaAlC7H13(NO6)2 cluster. In the NaAlC7H13(NO6)2 cluster, Na1+ is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to three O2- atoms. There are a spread of Na–O bond distances ranging from 2.22–2.49 Å. Al3+ is bonded in a linear geometry to two O2- atoms. There is one shorter (1.19 Å) and one longer (1.22 Å) Al–O bond length. There are seven inequivalent C+0.40+ sites. In the first C+0.40+ site, C+0.40+ is bonded in a distorted trigonal planar geometry to one H1+ and two O2- atoms. The C–H bond length is 1.05 Å. There are one shorter (0.84 Å) and one longer (1.14 Å) C–O bond lengths. In the second C+0.40+ site, C+0.40+ is bonded in a 1-coordinate geometry to one H1+ and two O2- atoms. The C–H bond length is 1.60 Å. There is one shorter (1.24 Å) and one longer (1.95 Å) C–O bond length. In the third C+0.40+ site, C+0.40+ is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one H1+ and two O2- atoms. The C–H bond length is 1.01 Å. There is one shorter (1.68 Å) and one longer (1.89 Å) C–O bond length. In the fourth C+0.40+ site, C+0.40+ is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to one H1+ and two O2- atoms. The C–H bond length is 0.81 Å. There is one shorter (1.75 Å) and one longer (1.90 Å) C–O bond length. In the fifth C+0.40+ site, C+0.40+ is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one H1+ and two O2- atoms. The C–H bond length is 1.38 Å. There is one shorter (1.19 Å) and one longer (1.86 Å) C–O bond length. In the sixth C+0.40+ site, C+0.40+ is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one H1+ and two O2- atoms. The C–H bond length is 1.13 Å. There is one shorter (0.83 Å) and one longer (1.24 Å) C–O bond length. In the seventh C+0.40+ site, C+0.40+ is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to two N3- and one H1+ atom. There is one shorter (0.88 Å) and one longer (1.45 Å) C–N bond length. The C–H bond length is 1.00 Å. There are two inequivalent N3- sites. In the first N3- site, N3- is bonded in a distorted water-like geometry to one C+0.40+ and three H1+ atoms. There are a spread of N–H bond distances ranging from 0.66–1.56 Å. In the second N3- site, N3- is bonded in a 2-coordinate geometry to one C+0.40+ and three H1+ atoms. There are a spread of N–H bond distances ranging from 1.08–1.59 Å. There are thirteen inequivalent H1+ sites. In the first H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one C+0.40+ atom. In the second H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one C+0.40+ atom. In the third H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one C+0.40+ atom. In the fourth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one C+0.40+ atom. In the fifth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a distorted L-shaped geometry to one C+0.40+ and one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 1.65 Å. In the sixth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one C+0.40+ atom. In the seventh H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one N3- atom. In the eighth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to one N3- atom. In the ninth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a bent 150 degrees geometry to one N3- and one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 1.47 Å. In the tenth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a distorted L-shaped geometry to two O2- atoms. There is one shorter (1.12 Å) and one longer (1.40 Å) H–O bond length. In the eleventh H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a distorted L-shaped geometry to two N3- atoms. In the twelfth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a distorted bent 120 degrees geometry to one C+0.40+ and one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 1.59 Å. In the thirteenth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one N3- atom. There are twelve inequivalent O2- sites. In the first O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to one Na1+ and one C+0.40+ atom. In the second O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted bent 150 degrees geometry to one Na1+ and one C+0.40+ atom. In the third O2- site, O2- is bonded in a bent 120 degrees geometry to one Al3+ and one C+0.40+ atom. In the fourth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one C+0.40+ atom. In the fifth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a water-like geometry to one C+0.40+ and one H1+ atom. In the sixth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to one C+0.40+ atom. In the seventh O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 2-coordinate geometry to one C+0.40+ and one H1+ atom. In the eighth O2- site, O2- is bonded in an L-shaped geometry to one C+0.40+ and one H1+ atom. In the ninth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one C+0.40+ atom. In the tenth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one Al3+, one C+0.40+, and one H1+ atom. In the eleventh O2- site, O2- is bonded in a bent 150 degrees geometry to one Na1+ and one C+0.40+ atom. In the twelfth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a water-like geometry to one C+0.40+ and one H1+ atom.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Renewable Energy Systems

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates the Department of Energy’s (DOE) only dedicated marine laboratory at the PNNL-Sequim campus. PNNL is leading research in the blue economy and marine energy applications and building collaboration between DOE and multiple partners in the state of Washington and beyond. With Washington State support, the Integrated Renewable Energy System (IRES) demonstration testbed proposed here will advance research by developing and testing renewable energy production, management, and use for multiple marine applications (e.g., ocean observations, underwater vehicles, aquaculture). It will also advance energy resiliency for coastal communities by developing an integrated renewable energy test platform that will model how multiple renewable energy resources could power shoreline businesses or communities (Figure 1). The test bed will demonstrate how different renewable systems can be integrated to reduce carbon emissions and contribute to a net zero emissions site and provide lessons, controls, and protocols that will help to expand energy options for shoreline and maritime businesses. The integrated system is expected to serve as a test bed for shoreline power and ocean energy technologies for years to come.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Informing forest carbon inventories under the Paris Agreement using ground-based forest monitoring data

Human interactions with forests have shaped Earth's climate for millennia and will continue to do so as we target net-zero emission goals. Accurately characterizing these climate impacts requires making reliable forest carbon data available for forest monitoring and planning. Here, we develop a semi-automated process for submitting forest carbon measurements from the largest relevant scientific database to the International Panel on Climate Change's Emission Factor Database, which currently has sparse forest carbon data. Building this bridge from scientific research to international policy is an important step towards managing forests in a net-zero motivated future. Humans have been influencing Earth's climate via transformative impacts on forests for millennia, and forests are now recognized as critical to climate change mitigation under the Paris Agreement. The efficacy of climate change mitigation planning and reporting depends on quality data on forest carbon (C) stocks and changes. The Emission Factor Database (EFDB) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is intended to be a definitive source for such data, but needs comprehensive and well-documented data to be so. To facilitate submission of forest C estimates from scientific studies to EFDB, we develop and document a process for semi-automated data submission from the Global Forest C database (ForC v4.0), which is the largest compilation of ground-based forest C estimates. We then assess the data currently available through ForC and provide recommendations for improving forest data collection, analysis, and reporting. As of September 2024, ForC contained ~19,286 records potentially relevant to EFDB, 1068 of which had been submitted and posted to EFDB. These represented 19% of the total EFDB records for forest land. Records were unevenly distributed across variables and geographic regions. ForC records (37%) reviewed could not be submitted because the original publication lacked required information. In the future, ground-based forest C estimates should target gaps in the record, and studies should ensure that they report all information necessary for inclusion in EFDB. Given that climate change is rapidly impacting the world's forests, timely reporting of recent estimates will be critical to accurate forest C inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential long-term, global effects of enhancing the domestic terrestrial carbon sink in the United States through no-till and cover cropping

Abstract Background Achieving a net zero greenhouse gas United States (US) economy is likely to require both deep sectoral mitigation and additional carbon dioxide removals to offset hard-to-abate emissions. Enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink, through practices such as the adoption of no-till and cover cropping agricultural management, could provide a portion of these required offsets. Changing domestic agricultural practices to optimize carbon content, however, might reduce or shift US agricultural commodity outputs and exports, with potential implications on respective global markets and land use patterns. Here, we use an integrated energy-economy-land-climate model to comprehensively assess the global land, trade, and emissions impacts of an adoption of domestic no-till farming and cover cropping practices based on carbon pricing. Results We find that the adoption of these practices varies depending on which aspects of terrestrial carbon are valued. Valuation of all terrestrial carbon resulted in afforestation at the expense of domestic agricultural production. In contrast, a policy valuing soil carbon in agricultural systems specifically indicates strong adoption of no-till and cover cropping for key crops. Conclusions We conclude that under targeted terrestrial carbon incentives, adoption of no-till and cover cropping practices in the US could increase the terrestrial carbon sink with limited effects on crop availability for food and fodder markets. Future work should consider integrated assessment modeling of non-CO 2 greenhouse gas impacts, above ground carbon storage changes, and capital and operating cost considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of above-code labeling programs in reducing CO 2 e emissions in residential buildings

Residential buildings account for 15 % of total U.S. carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Voluntary, above-code labeling programs, such as the ENERGY STAR and Zero Energy Ready Home programs, can play a crucial role in reducing the carbon footprint of the new construction residential building sector by encouraging adoption of more energy-efficient and lower emissions building practices and technologies. It's important for the industry to understand the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) and energy cost savings potential of these programs. Here, to estimate the potential CO 2 e emissions savings for homes built to above-code labeling program levels, it is imperative to have reliable and accurate tools for estimating emissions from buildings. The open-source OpenStudio-ERI workflow employs detailed physics-based building energy modeling (BEM) to estimate energy usage and operational CO 2 e emissions. In this study we use the OpenStudio-ERI workflow and regional, time-varying emissions factors from the Cambium database to compare the CO 2 e emissions and energy costs of homes built to performance levels required by these above-code labeling programs relative to homes built to model energy codes. We present the results of our analysis and provide a range of emissions and annual energy cost savings for the above-code labeling programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial Considerations for Large-Scale Carbon Removal in the United States

The Biden Administration has established a goal of removing 1 Gt carbon dioxide equivalents per year (CO 2e /yr) from the atmosphere and of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050. Our team of leading academic and DOE national laboratory experts is conducting the first economy-wide technical evaluation of the options for achieving this carbon dioxide removal (CDR) goal. The net zero goal includes targets of 100% clean electricity by 2035 with 40% GHG emissions reductions by 2030, which helps set primary scenario boundaries for our analysis of the CDR supply curve. Our analysis will evaluate feasibility, performance, and costs on a county level for the entire USA (including AK and HI where possible), considering all removal methods that are currently well-enough developed for us to estimate the likely costs in 2050. We anticipate that more than 1 Gt CO 2e of removal will be available to the Nation. We will identify how much of each CO 2 removal approach is available in specific regions of the Nation and provide cumulative costs and volumes (a supply curve) by region for 2050. We expect to complete this detailed analysis by late 2023.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon emission responsive building control: A case study with an all-electric residential community in a cold climate

In the United States, buildings account for 35% of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, making them important contributors to decarbonization. Carbon intensities in the power grid are time-varying and can fluctuate significantly within hours, so shifting building loads in response to the carbon intensities can reduce a building’s operational carbon emissions. This paper presents a rule-based carbon responsive control framework that controls the setpoints of thermostatically controlled loads responding to the grid’s carbon emission signals in real time. Based on this framework, four controllers are proposed with different combinations of carbon accounting methods and control rules. To evaluate their performance, we performed simulation studies using models of a 27-home, all-electric, net zero energy residential community located in Basalt, Colorado, United States. The carbon intensity data of four future years from the Cambium data set are adopted to account for the evolving resource mix in the power grid. Various performance metrics, including energy consumption, carbon emission, energy cost, and thermal discomfort, were used to evaluate the performance of the controllers. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine how the control thresholds and intervals affect the controllers’ performance. Simulation results indicate that the carbon responsive controllers can reduce the homes’ annual carbon emissions by 6.0% to 20.5%. However, the energy consumption increased by 0.9% to 6.7%, except in one scenario where it decreased by 2.2%. Compared to the baseline, the change in energy cost was between –2.9% and 3.4%, and thermal discomfort was also maintained within an acceptable range. The little impact on energy cost and thermal discomfort indicates there are no potential roadblocks for customer acceptance when rolling out the controllers in utility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Much of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissions

Abstract We explore the response of the Earth’s coupled climate and carbon system to an idealized sequential addition and removal of CO 2 to the atmosphere, following a symmetric and continuous emissions pathway, in contrast to the discontinuous emissions pathways that have largely informed our understanding of the climate response to net zero and net negative emissions to date. We find, using both an Earth system model and an ensemble of simple climate model realizations, that warming during the emissions reduction and negative emissions phases is defined by a combination of a proportionality of warming to cumulative emissions characterized by the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), and a deviation from that proportionality that is governed by the zero emissions commitment (ZEC). About half of the ZEC is realized before reaching zero emissions, and the ZEC thus also controls the timing between peak cumulative CO 2 emissions and peak temperature, such that peak temperature may occur before peak cumulative emissions if ZEC is negative, underscoring the importance of ZEC in climate policies aimed to limit peak warming. Thus we argue that ZEC is better defined as the committed warming relative to the expected TCRE proportionality, rather than as the additional committed warming that will occur after reaching net zero CO 2 emissions. Once established, the combined TCRE and ZEC relationship holds almost to complete removal of prior cumulative CO 2 emissions. As cumulative CO 2 emissions approach zero through negative CO 2 emissions, CO 2 concentrations drop below preindustrial values, while residual long-term climate change continues, governed by multicentennial dynamical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗
DOE OSTI2023

BlueSTEAl: A pair of silicon arrays and a zero-degree phoswich detector for studies of scattering and reactions in inverse kinematics

BlueSTEAl, the Blue (aluminum chamber of) Silicon TElescope Arrays for light nuclei, has been developed to study direct reactions in inverse kinematics, as well as scattering and breakup reactions using radioactive ion beams. It is a detector system consisting of a pair of annular silicon detector arrays and a zero-degree phoswich plastic scintillator. For typical binary reaction studies in inverse kinematics, light ions are detected by the Si array in coincidence with heavy recoils detected by the phoswich placed at the focal-plane of a zero-degree magnetic spectrometer. The Si array can also be used to detect light nuclei such as beryllium and carbon with clear isotope separation, while the phoswich can also be placed at zero degrees without a spectrometer and used as a high-efficiency beam counting monitor with particle identification capability at the rate of up to ~5 × 10 4 particles per second. This paper reports on the capabilities of BlueSTEAl as determined by recent experiments performed at the Texas A&M Cyclotron Institute. Furthermore, the device is also anticipated to be used in future experiments at other radioactive ion beam facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗