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DOE OSTI2021

Synthetic Evaluation of Infrasonic Multipole Waveform Inversion

Acoustic source inversions estimate the mass flow rate of volcanic explosions or yield of chemical explosions and provide insight into potential source directionality. However, the limitations of applying these methods to complex sources and their ability to resolve a stable solution have not been investigated in detail. We perform synthetic infrasound waveform inversions that use 3-D Green’s functions for a variety of idealized and realistic deployment scenarios using both a flat plane and Yasur volcano, Vanuatu as examples. We investigate the ability of various scenarios to retrieve the input source functions and relative amplitudes for monopole and multipole (monopole and dipole) inversions. Infrasound waveform inversions appear to be a robust method to quantify mass flow rates from simple sources (monopole) using deployments of infrasound sensors placed around a source, but care should be taken when analyzing and interpreting results from more complex acoustic sources (multipole) that have significant directional components. In the examples we consider the solution is stable for monopole inversions with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than five and the dipole component is small. For most scenarios investigated, the vertical dipole component of the multipole explosion source is poorly constrained and can impact the ability to recover the other source term components. Because multipole inversions are ill-posed for many deployments, a low residual does not necessarily mean the proper source vector has been recovered. Synthetic studies are able to help investigate the limitations and place bounds on information that may be missing using monopole and multipole inversions for potentially directional sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

One-pot ethanol production under optimized pretreatment conditions using agave bagasse at high solids loading with low-cost biocompatible protic ionic liquid

Agave bagasse (AG) is a potential bioenergy feedstock due to its high biomass productivity, even in semiarid lands. In particular, ionic liquid (IL) pretreatment using aprotic ILs (AILs) has greatly reduced AG recalcitrance towards downstream processing by lowering lignin content and achieving high sugar yields. However, AIL's low biocompatibility towards enzymes and bacteria combined with the high initial cost has limited further development of this technology. In a wash-free one-pot (OP) ethanol conversion process, the evaluation of AG pretreatment with a biocompatible low-cost protic IL (PIL), 2-hydroxyethylammonium acetate ([2-HEA][OAc]) was achieved, where PIL pretreatment was followed by enzymatic saccharification, then ethanol fermentation in a single vessel. The pretreatment conditions were optimized using a central composite design to enable high sugar conversion at low PIL content. Under optimized pretreatment conditions (160 °C, 60% IL loading and 1.5 h), a yield of 132 kg of ethanol per Ton of untreated biomass was estimated using high solids loading (30% solids loading) under a PIL-OP scheme. High lignin removal (>50%), a decreased cellulose crystallinity, and high glucan conversion (>85%) were achieved with PIL-pretreated AG comparable to yields obtained in an AIL-AG pretreated sample using 1-ethyl-3-methyl-imidazolium acetate ([C 2 C 1 Im][OAc]). Here, these results using [2-HEA][OAc] demonstrate the potential of AG in an OP scheme with improved total ethanol yields paving the way towards a more feasible IL-based biorefinery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solvent selection for a biomass-to-bioproduct pipeline through integrated reductive catalytic fractionation and microbial funneling

The growing significance of lignin-first biorefineries, which focus on upgrading the aromatics resulting from lignin depolymerization, presents opportunities for bioproduct synthesis using microbial strains capable of funneling a diverse array of phenolics into a single commodity chemical. In this study, we evaluated a biomass-to-bioproduct pipeline involving the reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF) of poplar biomass followed by biological funneling with a Novosphingobium aromaticivorans strain that produces 2-pyrone-4,6-dicarboxylic acid (PDC), a potential bioplastic precursor. Considering the impact of solvent on RCF reactor operating pressure, and the potential inhibitory effects of solvent on downstream microbial funneling, we performed an analysis of six pure solvents, namely methanol, ethanol, isopropanol, isobutanol, 1,4-dioxane and ethylene glycol, and different variations of their aqueous mixtures comprising 5 to 50 vol% water. For each pure solvent and solvent/water system, we measured phenolic monomer yields in the RCF process and PDC yields from the phenolic monomers. We then developed correlation models that relate phenolic monomer yields from RCF-derived samples to Hansen solubility parameters to determine solvent descriptors that contribute to high yields. Furthermore, we developed an integrated biorefinery system to estimate the minimum selling price (MSP) of PDC and the associated carbon footprint to identify solvent systems with better costs and sustainability metrics. These analyses resulted in the 50 vol% methanol/water system being identified as optimal because it reduces RCF reactor pressure and is compatible with microbial funneling with N. aromaticivorans. This solvent system produced 63 g PDC per kg biomass (264 g PDC per kg lignin) from 85 g phenolic monomers per kg biomass at a reduced reactor pressure of 48 bar (reduced by 26% compared to our previous poplar-to-PDC pipeline). The MSP for this system is $\$$13.98 per kg of purified PDC (carbon footprint of 1.47 kg CO 2 e per kg), which is about 24% lower than a previously described poplar-to-PDC pipeline and 46% lower than a lignin-to-PDC pipeline that used pure methanol as the solvent. The results from this study illustrate improvements that can be made in lignocellulosic biorefineries that are compatible with the hybrid chemical and biological processes needed to gain value from lignin.

Sripada, Sarada [Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Ce↗

DOE OSTI2026

The DESI DR1 peculiar velocity survey: Growth rate measurements from the galaxy power spectrum

The large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution encapsulate a wealth of cosmological information. A powerful means of unlocking this knowledge lies in measuring the auto-power spectrum and/or the cross-power spectrum of the galaxy density and momentum fields, followed by the estimation of cosmological parameters based on these spectrum measurements. In this study, we generalize the cross-power spectrum model to accommodate scenarios in which the density and momentum fields are derived from distinct galaxy surveys. The growth rate of the large-scale structures of the Universe, commonly represented as fσ 8 , was extracted by jointly fitting the monopole and quadrupole moments of the auto-density power spectrum, the monopole of the auto-momentum power spectrum, and the dipole of the cross-power spectrum. Our estimators, theoretical models, and parameter-fitting framework were tested using mocks, confirming their robustness and accuracy in retrieving the fiducial growth rate from simulation. These techniques were then applied to analyse the power spectrum of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey and Peculiar Velocity Survey. The fit result of the growth rate is fσ8 = 0.440$^{+0.080}_{−0.096}$ at effective redshift zeff = 0.07. By synthesizing the fitting outcomes from correlation functions, maximum likelihood estimation, and the power spectrum, a consensus value is yielded of fσ 8 (z eff = 0.07) = 0.450$^{+0.055}_{−0.055}$, and correspondingly we obtain γ = 0.580$^{+0.110}_{−0.110}$, Ω m = 0.301$^{+0.011}_{−0.011}$, and σ 8 = 0.834$^{+0.032}_{−0.032}$. The measured fσ8 and γ are consistent with the prediction of the Λ cold dark matter model and general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electronic structures and pseudogap nature of the strongly correlated Kondo semimetals and insulators CeNiSn and CeRhX(X=As, Sb)

Employing temperature (T)-dependent angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) near the Ce 4d absorption edge, we have investigated the electronic structures of the strongly correlated Kondo insulators (KIs) and/or Kondo semimetals of CeNiSn and CeRhX (X=As, Sb), which also belong to potential topological KIs (TKIs). Good agreement is found between the Fermi surfaces (FSs) measured at the Ce 4d→4f on resonance and those calculated and unfolded into the Ce-only Brillouin zone, supporting the crucial Ce 4f contribution to the Fermi-edge states in them. While the FSs of CeRhSb and CeNiSn are similar to each other, they are quite different from those of CeRhAs, which is understood to originate from the semimetallic Kondo ground states of CeNiSn and CeRhSb in contrast to the insulating Kondo ground state of CeRhAs. T-dependent ARPES demonstrates the existence of the Kondo resonance above the Fermi level (EF) and its T-driven decoherence in CeNiSn and CeRhSb, and the existence of the Ce 4f Kondo-like peak well below EF with a pseudogap in CeRhAs. With increasing T, the tail of the Kondo resonance in CeNiSn and CeRhSb loses its coherence, whereas the Ce 4f Kondo-like peak in CeRhAs persists up to T≥200 K. The Kondo temperatures (TKs) are estimated via the analysis of T-dependent ARPES, yielding TK≈80 K (CeNiSn), TK≈180 K (CeRhSb), and TK≫200 K (CeRhAs). High-resolution, low-T ARPES confirms the Kondo resonance just above EF in CeNiSn and CeRhSb Kondo semimetals and the KI ground state of CeRhAs with a pseudogap of Δ≈30 meV, demonstrating the importance of the coherent Kondo states in determining their potential topological properties. The differences in the T-dependent ARPES of CeNiSn and CeRhSb suggest the weaker f-c hybridization in CeNiSn than in CeRhSb (c: conduction electron), which is likely due to the more localized Ni 3d orbitals than the delocalized Rh 4d orbitals. The differences between the T-dependent ARPES of CeNiSn/CeRhSb Kondo semimetals and those of CeRhAs Kondo insulator are likely due to the smaller volume of CeRhAs than those of CeNiSn/CeRhSb.

Kang, J-S↗

DOE OSTI2026

Highly boosted dielectron identification in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A new technique is developed to identify dielectrons (e$^+$e$^-$) with Lorentz boost $γ_\mathrm{L}$$\gt$ 20 that produce one single merged cluster in the electromagnetic calorimeter of the CMS detector. The identification uses two multivariate models: one for the case where both electron tracks are reconstructed, and another where only one of the tracks is reconstructed. The efficiency is determined using proton-proton collision data collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Boosted J/$ψ$ mesons decaying into e$^+$e$^-$ pairs are used to estimate the efficiency of the model with two tracks, yielding an overall efficiency of 80%. The Z $\to$ $μ^+μ^-γ$ events, where the photon converts into a collimated dielectron, are used for the model with a single track, yielding an efficiency of about 60%. A dedicated energy correction for dielectron candidates is also developed using B$^\pm$ $\to$ J/$ψ$K$^\pm$ $\to$ e$^+$e$^-$K$^\pm$ data.

Hayrapetyan, A. [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for light long-lived neutral particles from Higgs boson decays via vector-boson-fusion production from pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is reported for long-lived dark photons with masses between 0.1 GeV and 15 GeV, from exotic decays of Higgs bosons produced via vector-boson-fusion. Events that contain displaced collimated Standard Model fermions reconstructed in the calorimeter or muon spectrometer are probed. This search uses the full LHC Run 2 (2015–2018) data sample collected in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 . Dominant backgrounds from Standard Model processes and non-collision sources are estimated using data-driven techniques. The observed event yields in the signal regions are consistent with the expected background. Upper limits on the Higgs boson to dark photon branching fraction are reported as a function of the dark photon mean proper decay length or of the dark photon mass and the coupling between the Standard Model and the potential dark sector. This search is combined with previous ATLAS searches obtained in the gluon–gluon fusion and WH production modes. A branching fraction above 10% is excluded at 95% CL for a 125 GeV Higgs boson decaying into two dark photons for dark photon mean proper decay lengths between 173 and 1296 mm and mass of 10 GeV.

Aad, G. (ORCID:0000000266654934)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distribution of Neutrons in a Cold Lucite Moderator

A series of experiments was performed in 2010 to study the behavior of neutrons in a cold Lucite moderator. The diffusion of neutrons in a cold moderator is described as a two-step process. In the first step, the fast neutrons produced by a neutron source collide with the nuclei of Lucite, losing energy until they reach thermal energies. In the second step, the thermal neutrons continue to diffuse without any significant loss of energy until they are absorbed or leak out of the system. However, because the Lucite moderator is at low temperature, there is less up scattering in the neutron energy compared to a Lucite moderator at room temperature. Experiments were performed to study the behavior of neutrons and their distribution in a cold Lucite moderator and their results compared to simulations. Based on these measurements, an estimation of the absorption cross section at -78.5 °C yielded a value of 0.54 barns ± 0.02 barns.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lightning Interferometry Uncertainty, Beam Steering Interferometry, and Evidence of Lightning Being Ignited by a Cosmic Ray Shower

Abstract We present an uncertainty analysis on correlation‐based time delay estimate, the basis for broadband lightning interferometry. A normal interferometry would yield much higher uncertainties than the theoretically predicted lower bound due to finite correlation window lengths. However, if the signals are aligned in time, the uncertainties approach the lower bound and can be used to indicate the interferometric uncertainties. Based on this, we introduce a beam steering interferometry technique. It first estimates a direction centroid for the lightning sources with a normal interferometry and computes the time delays among the signals. It then shifts the raw data with the time delays to align the signals roughly in time and reprocess the aligned signals. It finally pushes the reprocessed results to their correct positions, based on the time delays estimated in the first step. We apply this technique on a fast positive breakdown (FPB) process that started a normal intracloud lightning. The FPB process is shown to have a much more complex structure and development than a normal interferometry would provide. More importantly, from both interferometric and polarization analyses, the FPB appears to be ignited by a cosmic ray shower (CRS). We estimate the radio frequency strength and frequency content related to a presumed CRS in a thunderstorm electric field and find that they are in agreement with the observations. We examine the electric field effect of the CRS front and find that it could raise the field above the threshold for positive breakdown and is capable of igniting the FPB (and the lightning).

Shao, Xuan‐Min↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimated capital costs of fish exclusion technologies for hydropower facilities

Hydropower is a reliable source of renewable energy, and its future expansion is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development (NSD) projects or powering existing non-powered dams. Thresholds for entrainment risk to fish and the requirements for fish exclusion at hydropower facilities often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders, but little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion measures. Cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening were identified using keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 p.m.&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens and represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with NSD projects. Results indicate highly variable costs are associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1–2 in.). These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benefits and Cautions in Data Assimilation Strategies: An Example of Modeling Groundwater Recharge

Assimilating recent observations improves model outcomes for real-time assessments of groundwater processes. This is demonstrated in estimating time-varying recharge to a shallow fractured-rock aquifer in response to precipitation. Results from estimating the time-varying water-table altitude (h) and recharge, and their error covariances, are compared for forecasting, filtering, and fixed-lag smoothing (FLS), which are implemented using the Kalman Filter as applied to a data-driven, mechanistic model of recharge. Forecasting uses past observations to predict future states and is the current paradigm in most groundwater modeling investigations; filtering assimilates observations up to the current time to estimate current states; and FLS estimates states following a time lag over which additional observations are collected. Results for forecasting yield a large error covariance relative to the magnitude of the expected recharge. With assimilating recent observations of h, filtering and FLS produce estimates of recharge that better represent time-varying observations of h and reduce uncertainty in comparison to forecasting. Although model outcomes from applying data assimilation through filtering or FLS reduce model uncertainty, they are not necessarily mass conservative, whereas forecasting outcomes are mass conservative. Mass conservative outcomes from forecasting are not necessarily more accurate, because process errors are inherent in any model. Improvements in estimating real-time groundwater conditions that better represent observations need to be weighed for the model application against outcomes with inherent process deficiencies. In conclusion, results from data assimilation strategies discussed in this investigation are anticipated to be relevant to other groundwater processes models where system states are sensitive to system inputs.

aquifer recharge↗

DOE OSTI2024

Production of Carbon Nanomaterials and Sorbents from Domestic U.S. Coal (Final Report)

The main goal of this project was to produce high-value carbon nanomaterials and carbon sorbents from domestic coal resources in a cost-effective manner. Four types of domestic coal samples were processed through a combination of deashing, devolatilization, oxidation, reduction, and activation treatments to produce graphene oxide (GO), reduced graphene oxide (RGO), and activated carbon (AC). The precursors and developed materials were extensively characterized by various methods to investigate the impact of the coal feedstock type on the yield and quality of each product. A commercial graphite-based GO sample was included in the experimental work as the baseline material for comparison with the coal-based materials developed in this work. The performed work also included a technoeconomic analysis and cost estimation for a plant processing 20 tons/day coal, a market evaluation for the graphene materials, and a technology gap analysis. A simple process by concentrated nitric acid oxidation is used to oxidize coal precursors for the production of GO. Fine oxidized coal particles that were separated from larger oxidized coal particles had significantly higher oxygen contents and were identified as coal-based GO samples. Coarse oxidized coal particles were used as precursors for production of AC. Based on the Raman spectroscopy results, coal-based GO samples exhibited G and D bands similar to those of graphite-based GO samples. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy revealed that coal-based GO samples had surface oxygen contents of ~26-35% that were higher than the oxygen contents of graphite-based GO samples. Larger particles of oxidized coal samples were activated under different conditions to produce high surface area functionalized AC. Prepared materials had surface areas exceeding 1,500 m 2 /g and pore volumes more than 1 cm 3 /g with different pore size distributions. Reduced graphene oxide samples were prepared by thermal reduction of both coal-based and graphite-based GO samples at 170-2800 ºC. Coal-based and graphite-based RGO samples exhibited similar carbon contents, Raman spectra, and XRD profiles. Heat treatment above 1500 ºC shifted RGO to synthetic graphite. Among anthracite, bituminous, subbituminous, and lignite coals tested, anthracite was the best precursor to produce carbon nanomaterials exhibiting properties similar to those of graphite-based materials. Anthracite-based carbon nanomaterials also had the highest production yields. Technoeconomic analysis estimated the production cost of GO and RGO for anthracite-based samples at about 2,600 and 4,200 $/ton, respectively, which is about two orders of magnitude lower than the current estimated price of graphite-based materials. Several gaps to further develop the proposed technology were identified and discussed that include process and equipment optimization, process integration, need for additional bench- and pilot-scale experiments, and other items to reduce the scale up risk. Market analysis reports suggested a compound annual growth rate of 40% for graphene and related materials. Short-term applications include composites, inks, and coatings. However, energy storage applications appear to be the dominant potential long-term applications. Different applications of coal-based GO and RGO need to be explored and clear metrics and standards for each application need to be developed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polyethylene Upcycling to Diacids Using Acid-Only Activation

There is a pressing need to develop plastic recycling technologies. Chemical upcycling converts low-value waste plastics into higher-value products. Here, polyethylene (PE) upcycling is accomplished by using acid-only activation of PE (PEAA), thus eliminating costly and toxic organic solvents. Acid mixtures of chlorosulfuric acid (CSA) and sulfuric acid (SA) were used to effectively sulfonate PE, allowing for subsequent facile depolymerization. Molecular deconstruction of sulfonated PE using H 2 O 2 in the presence of an Fe(III) catalyst achieved molar yields of C 2 –C 4 diacids exceeding 40% (based on estimates of acids generated from sulfonates). The sulfonation step using PEAA is hypothesized to follow a shrinking core mechanism (SCM), in which PE particles quickly reach a saturated state in the outer sulfonated layer as CSA diffuses radially inward. This proposed mechanism is supported by the fact that, regardless of the extent of sulfonation, similar molar yields of products and ratios of liberated carbon to sulfur are observed. Modeling and experimentation show that deviations from the SCM occur by lowering the Damköhler number (Da) or increasing CSA solubility in PE. In both cases, CSA diffusion is enhanced, which favors kinetically limited sulfonation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of a New Approach for Entrainment and Detrainment Rate Estimation

Entrainment and detrainment rates (ε and δ) constitute the most critical free parameters in mass flux schemes commonly employed for cumulus parameterizations. Recently, Zhu et al. (2021) introduced a new approach that utilizes aircraft observations to simultaneously estimate ε and δ for cumulus clouds, overcoming the limitation of other observation-based approaches that solely yield ε without offering insights into δ. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the reliability of this new approach. First, evaluation using an Explicit Mixing Parcel Model demonstrates the capability of the new approach to back-calculate predetermined ε and δ based on the physical properties before and after the entrainment mixing. Second, evaluation using large-eddy simulations illustrates that the new approach yields consistent ε and δ profiles compared to the traditional approach. Sensitivity tests indicate a weak sensitivity of the estimated δ with the new approach to the entrained air source. A decrease in the proportion of cloudy air in the assumed detrained air leads to a reduction in the estimated δ, while ε remains unaffected. Finally, the most appropriate assumptions for entrained and detrained air are discussed. Estimating ε for cumulus parameterizations involves acquiring ambient air more than 500 m away from the cloud edge as entrained air. Due to implicit mean field approximations in the traditional approach, determining the optimal assumption for detrained air properties proves challenging. Finally, this study confirms the reliability of the new approach in estimating ε and δ, providing confidence in its application to extensive observational data and advancement in parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting seismic amplitudes with machine learning

The accurate estimation of seismic wave amplitude is vital to precisely determine the yield, magnitude, and event discrimination possible for a given network – a critical element in nuclear explosion monitoring. This task is complicated by several factors, including but not limited to radiation pattern, scattering effects, and crustal variations, which can lead to the attenuation or amplification of amplitude along a given raypath. In this report, we explore the novel application of machine learning to the task of seismic amplitude estimation by training a simple Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on an S-wave amplitude dataset from Lai et al. (2019). Attributes from this dataset used as input to the ANN included event-station distances, station locations (latitude, longitude), event locations (latitude, longitude), event depths, event magnitudes, radiation patterns, signal-to noise ratio (SNR) measurements (average-amplitude, peak-to-trough, maximum peak), and signal periods. We find that the trained ANN predicts S-wave amplitudes with a modest tendency toward underestimating the actual values, as indicated by a linear regression between predicted and actual data (slope: 0.892, intercept: -0.651). These results suggest that an ANN can perform this task, with potential for significant improvements through improved datasets, architectures, and parameter tuning.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗