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At least 379 records · Page 21

Human Factors Vehicle Displacement Analysis: Engineering In Motion

While positioned on the launch pad at the Kennedy Space Center, tall stacked launch vehicles are exposed to the natural environment. Varying directional winds and vortex shedding causes the vehicle to sway in an oscillating motion. The Human Factors team recognizes that vehicle sway may hinder ground crew operation, impact the ground system designs, and ultimately affect launch availability . The objective of this study is to physically simulate predicted oscillation envelopes identified by analysis. and conduct a Human Factors Analysis to assess the ability to carry out essential Upper Stage (US) ground operator tasks based on predicted vehicle motion.

Atencio, Laura Ashley↗

Statistical Analysis of Model Data for Operational Space Launch Weather Support at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind direction indicated the model error increased with the forecast period all four parameters. The hypothesis testing uses statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The goal of using the hypothesis test was to determine if the model bias of any of the parameters assessed throughout the model forecast period was statistically zero. For th is dataset, if this test produced a value >= -1 .96 or <= 1.96 for a data point, then the bias at that point was effectively zero and the model forecast for that point was considered to have no error. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed so the 45 WS would have an operational tool at their disposal that would be easy to navigate among the multiple stratifications of information to include tower locations, month, model initialization times, sensor heights and onshore/offshore flow. The AMU developed the GUI using HyperText Markup Language (HTML) so the tool could be used in most popular web browsers with computers running different operating systems such as Microsoft Windows and Linux.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Ocean Winds and Turbulent Air-Sea Fluxes Inferred From Remote Sensing

Air-sea turbulent fluxes determine the exchange of momentum, heat, freshwater, and gas between the atmosphere and ocean. These exchange processes are critical to a broad range of research questions spanning length scales from meters to thousands of kilometers and time scales from hours to decades. Examples are discussed (section 2). The estimation of surface turbulent fluxes from satellite is challenging and fraught with considerable errors (section 3); however, recent developments in retrievals (section 3) will greatly reduce these errors. Goals for the future observing system are summarized in section 4. Surface fluxes are defined as the rate per unit area at which something (e.g., momentum, energy, moisture, or CO Z ) is transferred across the air/sea interface. Wind- and buoyancy-driven surface fluxes are called surface turbulent fluxes because the mixing and transport are due to turbulence. Examples of nonturbulent processes are radiative fluxes (e.g., solar radiation) and precipitation (Schmitt et al., 2010). Turbulent fluxes are strongly dependent on wind speed; therefore, observations of wind speed are critical for the calculation of all turbulent surface fluxes. Wind stress, the vertical transport of horizontal momentum, also depends on wind direction. Stress is very important for many ocean processes, including upper ocean currents (Dohan and Maximenko, 2010) and deep ocean currents (Lee et al., 2010). On short time scales, this horizontal transport is usually small compared to surface fluxes. For long-term processes, transport can be very important but again is usually small compared to surface fluxes.

Bourassa, Mark A.↗

The Effect of Predicted Vehicle Displacement on Ground Crew Task Performance and Hardware Design

NASA continues to explore new launch vehicle concepts that will carry astronauts to low- Earth orbit to replace the soon-to-be retired Space Transportation System (STS) shuttle. A tall vertically stacked launch vehicle (> or =300 ft) is exposed to the natural environment while positioned on the launch pad. Varying directional winds and vortex shedding cause the vehicle to sway in an oscillating motion. Ground crews working high on the tower and inside the vehicle during launch preparations will be subjected to this motion while conducting critical closeout tasks such as mating fluid and electrical connectors and carrying heavy objects. NASA has not experienced performing these tasks in such environments since the Saturn V, which was serviced from a movable (but rigid) service structure; commercial launchers are likewise attended by a service structure that moves away from the vehicle for launch. There is concern that vehicle displacement may hinder ground crew operations, impact the ground system designs, and ultimately affect launch availability. The vehicle sway assessment objective is to replicate predicted frequencies and displacements of these tall vehicles, examine typical ground crew tasks, and provide insight into potential vehicle design considerations and ground crew performance guidelines. This paper outlines the methodology, configurations, and motion testing performed while conducting the vehicle displacement assessment that will be used as a Technical Memorandum for future vertically stacked vehicle designs.

Atencio, Laura Ashley↗

Contrails of Small and Very Large Optical Depth

This work deals with two kinds of contrails. The first comprises a large number of optically thin contrails near the tropopause. They are mapped geographically using a lidar to obtain their height and a camera to obtain azimuth and elevation. These high-resolution maps provide the local contrail geometry and the amount of optically clear atmosphere. The second kind is a single trail of unprecedentedly large optical thickness that occurs at a lower height. The latter was observed fortuitously when an aircraft moving along the wind direction passed over the lidar, thus providing measurements for more than 3 h and an equivalent distance of 620 km. It was also observed by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) sensors. The lidar measured an optical depth of 2.3. The corresponding extinction coefficient of 0.023 per kilometer and ice water content of 0.063 grams per cubic meter are close to the maximum values found for midlatitude cirrus. The associated large radar reflectivity compares to that measured by ultrasensitive radar, thus providing support for the reality of the large optical depth.

Atlas, David↗

Staring at 4U 1909+07 with Suzaku (Research Note)

We present an analysis of the neutron star High Mass X-ray Binary (HMXB) 4U 1909+07 mainly based on Suzaku data. We extend the pulse period evolution, which behaves in a random-walk like manner, indicative of direct wind accretion. Studying the spectral properties of 4U 1909+07 between 0.5 to 90keV we find that a power-law with an exponential cutoff can describe the data well, when additionally allowing for a blackbody or a partially covering absorber at low energies. We find no evidence for a cyclotron resonant scattering feature (CRSF), a feature seen in many other neutron star HMXBs sources. By performing pulse phase resolved spectroscopy we investigate the origin of the strong energy dependence of the pulse profile, which evolves from a broad two-peak profile at low energies to a profile with a single, narrow peak at energies above 20keV. Our data show that it is very likely that a higher folding energy in the high energy peak is responsible for this behavior. This in turn leads to the assumption that we observe the two magnetic poles and their respective accretion columns at different phases, and that these accretions column have slightly different physical conditions.

Fuerst, F.↗

MINK Workshop Presentations for SERVIR

Topics include: MINX Document 1 MISR : The instrument, its orbit and data products. MINX Document 2 MISR : Tools for ordering and viewing data. MINX Document 3 : MINX : Overview and plume case studies. MINX Document 4 : MINX basic features. MINX Document 5 : Measuring aerosol height and motion with MINX. MINX Document 5 : Handling complexities in height retrievals. Plume boundaries, Wind direction, Low Optical Thickness, Other complexities. Digitizing options. Managing plume projects.

MINX↗

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗

Seasonally Active Slipface Avalanches in the North Polar Sand Sea of Mars: Evidence for a Wind-Related Origin

Meter-scale MRO/HiRISE camera images of dune slipfaces in the north polar sand sea of Mars reveal the presence of deep alcoves above depositional fans. These features are apparently active under current climatic conditions, because they form between observations taken in subsequent Mars years. Recently, other workers have hypothesized that the alcoves form due to destabilization and mass-wasting during sublimation of CO2 frost in the spring. While there is evidence for springtime modification of these features, our analysis of early springtime images reveals that over 80% of the new alcoves are visible underneath the CO2 frost. Thus, we present an alternative hypothesis that formation of new alcoves and fans occurs prior to CO2 deposition. We propose that fans and alcoves form primarily by aeolian processes in the mid- to late summer, through a sequence of aeolian deposition on the slipface, over-steepening, failure, and dry granular flow. An aeolian origin is supported by the orientations of the alcoves, which are consistent with recent wind directions. Furthermore, morphologically similar but much smaller alcoves form on terrestrial dune slipfaces, and the size differences between the terrestrial and Martian features may reflect cohesion in the near-subsurface of the Martian features. The size and preservation of the largest alcoves on the Martian slipfaces also support the presence of an indurated surface layer; thus, new alcoves might be sites of early spring CO2 sublimation and secondary mass-wasting because they act as a window to looser, less indurated materials that warm up more quickly in the spring.

Horgan, Briony H. N.↗

The Multi-Stage History of Mt. Sharp

The Curiosity rover is exploring Gale crater and Mt. Sharp, Gale's 5‐km high central mound. We are investigating the history of alteration and erosion of Mt. Sharp using orbital imagery, spectroscopy and rover observations. Our results suggest a significant time gap between emplacement of the upper and lower sections of the mound. Crater counts show that the lower mound was formed soon after Gale itself, and that it contains distinct units ranging in altitude from approximately ‐4,500 to ‐1,800 m. Spectral data suggest that many units contain phyllosilicates. We found that these clay‐bearing rocks occur in distinct layers concentrated below ‐2,900 m. Parts of the lower mound exhibit a transition from clays to sulfates with increasing altitude. The lower mound shows evidence of flowing water, including canyons and inverted channels. Wind erosion produced km‐scale yardangs and scalloped cliffs. Our mapping shows that many yardangs in the lower mound are clay‐bearing, with a predominant orientation of around N‐S. Curiosity's ground‐level images show myriad fine‐scale, mainly horizontal layers in the lower mound. The rover has found stream beds and conglomerates, indicating that water once flowed on the crater floor. Drilling near the deepest point in Gale produced abundant clay, providing additional evidence of aqueous alteration. Upper mound units range in altitude from ‐2,100 m to +500 m, and mantle the lower mound above an angular unconformity. Most upper mound units are composed of layers. The formation age of the upper mound is unknown, since few craters are preserved. Clay‐bearing layers are detectable in several locations, mainly at altitudes near ‐2,000 m. There is no evidence of water flow, but wind erosion has scalloped the surfaces and edges of layers, and fine‐scale yardangs are common. Correlations between yardangs and clay spectra are apparent only in the lowermost units of the upper mound. Yardang orientations vary, and include N‐S, NW‐SE, and NE‐SW. Upper mound units resemble the planet‐wide Medusae Fossae formation, dated as Hesperian and argued to be composed of ignimbrites. Medusae Fossae layers are easily eroded by wind, and our mapping demonstrates their resemblance to upper mound fine‐scale yardangs. The history of Mt. Sharp started with deposition and lithification of sediments shortly after crater formation. Some lower mound layers were partially altered to clays and sulfates, and water formed streams and canyons. Wind erosion of the lower mound produced large‐scale yardangs, particularly in clay‐rich layers, oriented generally N‐S. Upper mound units were emplaced following a considerable period of wind erosion. The absence of water flow on the upper mound suggests that these units were emplaced after atmospheric loss rendered water unstable at the surface. The shift in dominant wind direction, as indicated by yardang orientations, also argues for a time gap between erosion of the lower and upper mound. These observations are consistent with upper mound units being related to the Hesperian Medusae Fossae formation. During 2014 Curiosity is expected to reach the foot of Mt. Sharp and ascend through the clay‐rich layers, into the sulfate‐rich layers, and possibly past the interface with the upper mound. This will be a unique opportunity to field check geologic models on the surface of Mars.

Allen, C.↗

Systematic Satellite Observations of the Impact of Aerosols from Passive Volcanic Degassing on Local Cloud Properties

The impact of volcanic emissions is a significant source of uncertainty in estimations of aerosol indirect radiative forcing, especially with respect to emissions from passive de-gassing and minor explosions. Understanding the impact of volcanic emissions on indirect radiative forcing is important assessing present day atmospheric properties and also to define the pre-industrial baseline to assess anthropogenic perturbations. We present observations of the time-averaged indirect aerosol effect within 200 km downwind of isolated island volcanoes in regions of low present-day aerosol burden using MODIS and AATSR data. Retrievals of aerosol and cloud properties at Kilauea (Hawaii), Yasur (Vanuatu) and Piton de la Fournaise (Reunion) are rotated about the volcanic vent according to wind direction, so that retrievals downwind of the volcano can be averaged to improve signal to noise ratio. The emissions from all three volcanoes, including those from passive degassing, strombolian activity and minor explosions lead to measurably increased aerosol optical depth downwind of the active vent. Average cloud droplet effective radius is lower downwind of the volcano in all cases, with the peak difference in effective radius ranging from 48 microns at the different volcanoes. A comparison of these observations with cloud properties at isolated islands with no significant source of aerosol suggests that these patterns are not purely orographic in origin. This approach sets out a first step for the systematic measurement of the effects of present day low altitude volcanic emissions on cloud properties, and our observations of unpolluted, isolated marine settings may capture processes similar to those in the preindustrial marine atmosphere.

cloud properties↗

Airborne Wind Profiling Algorithm for Doppler Wind LIDAR

Systems, methods, and devices of the present invention enable airborne Doppler Wind LIDAR system measurements and INS/GPS measurements to be combined to estimate wind parameters and compensate for instrument misalignment. In a further embodiment, the wind speed and wind direction may be computed based on two orthogonal line-of-sight LIDAR returns.

Beyon, Jeffrey Y.↗

An Elevated Reservoir of Air Pollutants over the Mid-Atlantic States During the 2011 DISCOVER-AQ Campaign: Airborne Measurements and Numerical Simulations

During a classic heat wave with record high temperatures and poor air quality from July 18 to 23, 2011, an elevated reservoir of air pollutants was observed over and downwind of Baltimore, MD, with relatively clean conditions near the surface. Aircraft and ozonesonde measurements detected approximately 120 parts per billion by volume ozone at 800 meters altitude, but approximately 80 parts per billion by volume ozone near the surface. High concentrations of other pollutants were also observed around the ozone peak: approximately 300 parts per billion by volume CO at 1200 meters, approximately 2 parts per billion by volume NO2 at 800 meters, approximately 5 parts per billion by volume SO2 at 600 meters, and strong aerosol optical scattering (2 x 10 (sup 4) per meter) at 600 meters. These results suggest that the elevated reservoir is a mixture of automobile exhaust (high concentrations of O3, CO, and NO2) and power plant emissions (high SO2 and aerosols). Back trajectory calculations show a local stagnation event before the formation of this elevated reservoir. Forward trajectories suggest an influence on downwind air quality, supported by surface ozone observations on the next day over the downwind PA, NJ and NY area. Meteorological observations from aircraft and ozonesondes show a dramatic veering of wind direction from south to north within the lowest 5000 meters, implying that the development of the elevated reservoir was caused in part by the Chesapeake Bay breeze. Based on in situ observations, Community Air Quality Multi-scale Model (CMAQ) forecast simulations with 12 kilometers resolution overestimated surface ozone concentrations and failed to predict this elevated reservoir; however, CMAQ research simulations with 4 kilometers and 1.33 kilometers resolution more successfully reproduced this event. These results show that high resolution is essential for resolving coastal effects and predicting air quality for cities near major bodies of water such as Baltimore on the Chesapeake Bay and downwind areas in the Northeast.

ozone↗

The Quality Control Algorithms Used in the Creation of NASA Kennedy Space Center Lightning Protection System Towers Meteorological Database

An accurate database of meteorological data is essential for designing any aerospace vehicle and for preparing launch commit criteria. Meteorological instrumentation were recently placed on the three Lightning Protection System (LPS) towers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) launch complex 39B (LC-39B), which provide a unique meteorological dataset existing at the launch complex over an extensive altitude range. Data records of temperature, dew point, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction are produced at 40, 78, 116, and 139 m at each tower. The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch (EV44) received an archive that consists of one-minute averaged measurements for the period of record of January 2011 - April 2015. However, before the received database could be used EV44 needed to remove any erroneous data from within the database through a comprehensive quality control (QC) process. The QC process applied to the LPS towers' meteorological data is similar to other QC processes developed by EV44, which were used in the creation of meteorological databases for other towers at KSC. The QC process utilized in this study has been modified specifically for use with the LPS tower database. The QC process first includes a check of each individual sensor. This check includes removing any unrealistic data and checking the temporal consistency of each variable. Next, data from all three sensors at each height are checked against each other, checked against climatology, and checked for sensors that erroneously report a constant value. Then, a vertical consistency check of each variable at each tower is completed. Last, the upwind sensor at each level is selected to minimize the influence of the towers and other structures at LC-39B on the measurements. The selection process for the upwind sensor implemented a study of tower-induced turbulence. This paper describes in detail the QC process, QC results, and the attributes of the LPS towers meteorological database.

Orcutt, John M.↗

Meteorite Falls Observed in U.S. Weather Radar Data in 2015 and 2016 (To Date)

To date, over twenty meteorite falls have been located in the weather radar imagery of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NEXRAD radar network. We present here the most prominent events recorded since the last Meteoritical Society meeting, covering most of 2015 and early 2016. Meteorite Falls: The following events produced evidence of falling meteorites in radar imagery and resulted in meteorites recovered at the fall site. Creston, CA (24 Oct 2015 0531 UTC): This event generated 218 eyewitness reports submitted to the American Meteor Society (AMS) and is recorded as event #2635 for 2015 on the AMS website. Witnesses reported a bright fireball with fragmentation terminating near the city of Creston, CA, north of Los Angeles. Sonic booms and electrophonic noise were reported in the vicinity of the event. Weather radar imagery records signatures consistent with falling meteorites in data from the KMUX, KVTX, KHNX and KVBX. The Meteoritical Society records the Creston fall as an L6 meteorite with a total recovered mass of 688g. Osceola, FL (24 Jan 2016 1527 UTC): This daytime fireball generated 134 eyewitness reports on AMS report number 266 for 2016, with one credible sonic boom report. The fireball traveled roughly NE to SW with a terminus location north of Lake City, FL in sparsely populated, forested countryside. Radar imagery shows distinct and prominent evidence of a significant meteorite fall with radar signatures seen in data from the KJAX and KVAX radars. Searchers at the fall site found that recoveries were restricted to road sites by the difficult terrain, and yet several meteorites were recovered. Evidence indicates that this was a relatively large meteorite fall where most of the meteorites are unrecoverable due to terrain. Osceola is an L6 meteorite with 991 g total mass recovered to date. Mount Blanco, TX (18 Feb 2016 0343 UTC): This event produced only 39 eyewitness reports and is recorded as AMS event #635 for 2016. No reports of sonic booms or electrophonic noise are recorded in the AMS eyewitness reports, but videos of the event show a relatively long-lasting fireball with fragmentation. Evidence of falling meteorites is seen in radar imagery from the KAMA and KLBB radars defining a roughly WNW to ESE trend with the dominant wind direction. This event featured favorable search ground composed mostly of farmland and ranchland and was extensively searched. Rather surprisingly, only a single L5 chondrite of 36.2g has been recovered to date.

Fries, Marc↗

Bladed Terrain on Pluto: Possible Origins and Evolutions

Pluto's Bladed Terrain (centered roughly 20 deg N, 225 deg E) covers the flanks and crests of the informally named Tartarus Dorsa with numerous roughly aligned blade-like ridges oriented approx. North-South; it may also stretch considerably farther east onto the non-close approach hemisphere but that inference is tentative. Individual ridges are typically several hundred meters high, and are spaced 5 to 10 km crest to crest, separated by V-shaped valleys. Many ridges merge at acute angles to form Y-shape junctions in plan view. The principle composition of the blades themselves we suspect is methane or a methane-rich mixture. (Methane is spectroscopically strongly observed on the optical surfaces of blades.) Nitrogen ice is very probably too soft to support their topography. Cemented mixtures of volatile and non-volatile ices may also provide a degradable but relief supporting "bedrock" for the blades, perhaps analogous to Callisto. Currently we are considering several hypotheses for the origins of the deposit from which Bladed Terrain has evolved, including aeolian disposition, atmospheric condensation, updoming and exhumation, volcanic intrusions or extrusions, crystal growth, among others. We are reviewing several processes as candidate creators or sculptors of the blades. Perhaps they are primary depositional patterns such as dunes, or differential condensation patterns (like on Callisto), or fissure extrusions. Or alternatively perhaps they are the consequence of differential erosion (such as sublimation erosion widening and deepening along cracks), variations in substrate properties, mass wasting into the subsurface, or sculpted by a combination of directional winds and solar isolation orientation. We will consider the roles of the long-term increasing solar flux and short periods of warm thick atmospheres. Hypotheses will be ordered based on observational constrains and modeling to be presented at the conference.

methane↗

Preliminary Error Characterization and Parametric Error Model for the Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Contract Extended Projected Profile Message

A critical component of Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) is the ability for a consistent and accurate 4-dimensional trajectory (4DT) to be shared and synchronized between airborne and ground systems as well as amongst various ground automation systems. The Aeronautical Telecommunication Network—Baseline 2 (ATN-B2) standard defines the Extended Projected Profile (EPP) trajectory that can be sent via Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Contract (ADS-C) from an aircraft to ground automation. The EPP trajectory message contains a representation of the reference trajectory from an aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS). In this work, a set of scenarios were run in a high-fidelity aircraft and FMS simulation to perform an initial characterization of EPP trajectory errors under a given set of conditions. The parameters investigated were the route length, route type, wind magnitude error, wind direction error, and with and without a required time-of-arrival (RTA) constraint. In addition, linear regression was used to identify a set of EPP error models for the cross-track, vertical, and time errors.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

What Happens Before a Southward IMF Turning Reaches the Magnetopause?

Previous observations have shown an approximately 10-15 minute time delay in the ionospheric response to solar wind directional discontinuities marked by either southward or northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turnings. We have studied one southward IMF turning observed by Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) and GOES in the dayside magnetosphere. Using a global MHD (MagnetoHydroDynamics) model, we have reproduced the magnetopause motion in this event. We find that the observed delay in the ground response can be completely explained by deceleration of the directional discontinuity in the subsolar magnetosheath. We show that the speed of the discontinuity significantly decreases in the vicinity of the magnetopause where the magnetic barrier formed during the previous northward IMF interval. The southward turning can reach the magnetopause only after complete disruption of the magnetic barrier. The disruption or dissipation occurs via magnetosheath reconnection, as confirmed by high-speed jets in the magnetosheath. The magnetopause moves sunward as the directional discontinuity transits the magnetosheath. This sunward motion is followed by the earthward motion when the discontinuity strikes the magnetopause and magnetopause reconnection begins.

Samsonov, A. A.↗