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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

New Projections for Dark Matter Searches with Paleo-Detectors

Paleo-detectors are a proposed experimental technique to search for dark matter (DM). In lieu of the conventional approach of operating a tonne-scale real-time detector to search for DM-induced nuclear recoils, paleo-detectors take advantage of small samples of naturally occurring rocks on Earth that have been deep underground (≳5 km), accumulating nuclear damage tracks from recoiling nuclei for O(1)Gyr. Modern microscopy techniques promise the capability to read out nuclear damage tracks with nanometer resolution in macroscopic samples. Thanks to their O(1)Gyr integration times, paleo-detectors could constitute nuclear recoil detectors with keV recoil energy thresholds and 100 kilotonne-yr exposures. This combination would allow paleo-detectors to probe DM-nucleon cross sections orders of magnitude below existing upper limits from conventional direct detection experiments. In this article, we use improved background modeling and a new spectral analysis technique to update the sensitivity forecast for paleo-detectors. We demonstrate the robustness of the sensitivity forecast to the (lack of) ancillary measurements of the age of the samples and the parameters controlling the backgrounds, systematic mismodeling of the spectral shape of the backgrounds, and the radiopurity of the mineral samples. Specifically, we demonstrate that even if the uranium concentration in paleo-detector samples is 10−8 (per weight), many orders of magnitude larger than what we expect in the most radiopure samples obtained from ultra basic rock or marine evaporite deposits, paleo-detectors could still probe DM-nucleon cross sections below current limits. For DM masses ≲ 10 GeV/c2, the sensitivity of paleo-detectors could still reach down all the way to the conventional neutrino floor in a Xe-based direct detection experiment.

Baum, Sebastian (ORCID:0000000167929381)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design and Manufacturing of High Performance, Reduced Charge Heat Exchangers

Air-to-fluid heat exchangers (HXs) play a critical role as the main heat transfer component in Heating, Ventilation, Air-Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems. However, their airside thermal resistance significantly inhibits their overall performance. Furthermore, these HXs must be continually more compact to meet the latest refrigerant charge limits to reduce emissions. Recent literature suggests that traditional HX geometries (e.g., round or flat tubes with fins), have reached their limits, and more sophisticated shape- and topology-optimized designs are required to achieve the next jump in performance. This research sheds light on the next generation of air-to-refrigerant HXs and aims to address several practical issues to commercialization such as novelty challenges (improved performance for significant charge reduction; modeling expertise & time investment), manufacturing challenges (non-round tube manufacturing; tube-header integration; product qualification, e.g., burst pressure testing, extreme operational environment, etc.), and operational challenges (flow maldistribution, fouling & wetting, noise & vibration). For example, a >20% improvement on one (or more) HX-level performance metrics (e.g., envelope volume, airside pressure drop, face area, capacity, refrigerant charge, weight, cost, etc.) must be achieved before a HX design is considered for commercialization. We present a new, comprehensive and experimentally validated air-to-refrigerant HX optimization framework with simultaneous thermal-hydraulic performance and mechanical strength considerations for novel, non-round, shape- and topology-optimized tubes capable of optimizing single and two-phase HX designs for any refrigerant choice and performance requirement with significant engineering time savings compared to conventional design practices. The framework was exercised for a wide range of applications and refrigerants, resulting in HXs which achieved greater than 20% improved performance, 20% reductions in size, and 25% reductions in refrigerant charge. To enable non-round tube bundle use in next generation HVAC&R equipment, novel manufacturing techniques were investigated, including the development of conventional manufacturing methods for small diameter, non-round tubes and novel tube-header integration strategies. In total, ten HX prototypes were manufactured, nine using conventional methods directly attributed to this project and one using advanced additive manufacturing methods. The five-year manufacturing feasibility of the proposed HXs was found to have a good outlook. The non-round tube HX simulated performance was validated through comprehensive experimental testing, including nine in-house component-level tests, one independent component-level test at an industry partner laboratory, and in-house system-level tests of using a commercially-available, residential packaged A/C unit which was retrofitted with a non-round tube prototype HX. It was found that HX designs proposed by the new framework can successfully predict experimental thermal-hydraulic performance within ±10-20% the first time with no manual design changes, eliminating the need for time-consuming and expensive prototyping efforts. This work will accelerate design and time to market for next generation HXs while simultaneously facilitating industry transition to new refrigerants at lower charge.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud Base Ice Precipitation Properties Over the NSA Site

Cloud-climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long-lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud-base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. This data set provides more than 1800 samples of cloud-base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, all of which were retrieved using the synthesis of ARM radar and lidar measurements. The retrieved ice precipitation variables in this data set include, among others, the ice number concentration, water content, PSD parameters, precipitation rate, mass-weighted fall velocity, vertical air motion, and effective radius, all of which are highly valuable for model evaluation and a general understanding of polar cloud sink processes. Each variable sample includes its mean value and associated uncertainty. Additional variables based on ARM measurements (liquid layer statistics, etc.) are included in this data set. The retrieval algorithm and analysis of this data set are described in Silber (JGR, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038202).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stellar Populations in type Ia supernova host galaxies at intermediate-high redshift: Star formation and metallicity enrichment histories

ABSTRACT We present a summary of our project that studies galaxies hosting type Ia supernova (SN Ia) at different redshifts. We present Gran Telescopio de Canarias (GTC) optical spectroscopy of six SN Ia host galaxies at redshift z ∼ 0.4–0.5. They are joined to a set of SN Ia host galaxies at intermediate-high redshift, which include galaxies from surveys SDSS and COSMOS. The final sample, after a selection of galaxy spectra in terms of signal-to-noise and other characteristics, consists of 680 galaxies with redshift in the range 0.04 < z < 1. We perform an inverse stellar population synthesis with the code fado to estimate the star formation and enrichment histories of this set of galaxies, simultaneously obtaining their mean stellar age and metallicity and stellar mass. After analysing the correlations among these characteristics, we look for possible dependencies of the Hubble diagram residuals and supernova features (luminosity, colour and strength parameter) on these stellar parameters. We find that the Hubble residuals show a clear dependence on the stellar metallicity weighted by mass with a slope of −0.061 mag dex−1, when represented in logarithmic scale, log 〈ZM/Z⊙〉. This result supports our previous findings obtained from gas oxygen abundances for local and SDSS-survey galaxies. Comparing with other works from the literature that also use the stellar metallicity, we find a similar value, but with more precision and a better significance (2.08 versus ∼ 1.1), due to the higher number of objects and wider range of redshift of our sample.

Millán-Irigoyen, I. (ORCID:0000000341155140)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiative Heat Transport and Optical Characterization of High Temperature Molten Salts

The goal of this project was to advance the field of molten fluoride radiative heat transfer (RHT), through optical property measurements, heat transfer loop construction and operation, and computational fluid dynamics simulations. The following outcomes have been accomplished. A comprehensive review has been conducted to compile all available RHT-relevant optical absorption data for molten fluorides. The various measurement methods have also been compiled and critiqued. Thermal emission measurement methods have been refined and documented. A unique thermal emissivity measurement facility has been constructed and used to measure the emissivity of flowing FLiBe-exposed SS316 samples. A slight increase has been observed in the emissivity compared to unexposed SS316. A dual reflectance-emission setup was partially demonstrated for the purpose of molten fluoride absorption measurement. Preliminary infrared edge data for FLiNaK was obtained. A visible near-infrared (NIR) measurement setup has been constructed and will be used to measure absorption of corrosion products in FLiBe. A new multi-band thermal radiation method using blackbody-weighted spectral bands for the absorption-coefficient was deployed to investigate the thermal performance of the UW Natural Circulation FLiBe Loop under various power levels and operating conditions. The results showed an increasing and decreasing trend in the overall heat transfer with optical thickness with a maximum at optical thickness τ D ≈Ο(1). A forced convection FLiBe loop was constructed for the purpose of studying corrosion and thermal hydraulic phenomena. A vertical cantilever pump is used to achieve up to 5 gpm and 5 m/s flow velocity in hot and cold test sections. A methodology has been established for modeling radiative heat transfer (RHT) in molten salt coolants for the purpose of quantifying the contribution of thermal radiation in conditions relevant to FHR or MSR systems. The comparison between the results obtained for forced and mixed convection showed that in the studied ranges of optical thickness, the maximum effect of RHT on overall heat transfer was 60% improvement observed at z/D = 250 for forced convection; whereas for mixed convection, that value was higher at 170% observed at z/D = 30. The highest effect of RHT on the overall energy distribution was observed at τ D ≈3.4. Negligible effect (<20%) was observed above τ D =18 and below τ D ≈0.002. A CFD code-to-code comparison was conducted using COMSOL Multiphysics at UW-Madison and STAR-CCM at MIT, for a forced and mixed convection laminar flow for a grey medium in a vertical heated using both COMSOL Multiphysics at UW-Madison and STAR-CCM at MIT. The relative error was the largest at τ D =40 for the radiative heat flux, bulk temperature, and Nusselt number. On the other hand, the relative error was the least at τ D =0.002 for the conductive heat flux, bulk temperature, and Nusselt number.

Anderson, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Properties for a Mechanistic, Predictive Understanding of Aqueous Impact on Aging of Medium and Low Voltage AC and DC Cabling in Nuclear Power Plants

To address the gap in knowledge in understanding degradation in relevant service conditions, this project aimed to develop a mechanistic, predictive model of medium and low voltage cable failure based on the primary environmental degradation parameters of aqueous immersion time, temperature, and the oxidation extent. To do so, we took a two-fold approach toward evaluating degradation as related to the aqueous condition. First, we evaluated the chemical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers that comprise the cabling insulation under varied aqueous conditions at different temperatures. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of insulation materials under similar accelerated aging conditions in addition to the dielectric breakdown of the cabling under submersion conditions. Thermal oxidation and immersion of LDPE thin films were done using a Parr vessel and the extent of oxidation was monitored using the carbonyl index from ATR-FTIR spectrum, a ratio quantifying the carbonyl functionality produced on the LDPE film surface. Increasing the temperature, oxidation time, and oxygen pressure increased the water-vapor permeability and the carbonyl content. Thermogravimetric analysis of the films confirmed that there is indeed an initial weight loss of the smaller molecular weight molecules and volatiles. At higher temperatures, there is a secondary mass loss. Up to 70°C, the mass loss curves were similar until 80°C, when the aged films decreased at a much greater rate with respect to increasing temperature. This was seen in the 10, 50, 90% weight loss temperatures. The mechanical properties of sheet PP and HDPE as well as injection molded LDPE, HDPE, HDPP dog bones were plotted with respect to the time spent in the Parr vessel during thermal oxidation. For the sheet PP and HDPE, the UTS and the modulus of elasticity decreased while the elongation increased. The injection-molded LDPE, HDPE, and HDPP dog bones experienced a similar trend where the changes in the properties were within experimental uncertainty. This analysis of LDPE in dry and immersive oxygen-rich environments is an important baseline for future experiments looking at other degradation mechanisms. A predictive aging model for low-density polyethylene insulative cable housings was developed. This model revealed a combination of physical and chemical processes which lead to an increase in permeability and a decrease in strength of the insulator. In creating this predictive model, a gap of knowledge in the literature was revealed in two areas: understanding how the crystallinity of a polymer changes with time and visualizing the predicted pores formed through the insulator which leads to failure. Developing and using an adapted ATR-FTIR method, crystallinity was monitored and compared to bulk crystallinity found via DSC. Inhomogeneity in crystallinity changes were observed but the FTIR method but was found to be less reliable. Pore visualization was found utilizing electrical impedance spectroscopy saturated aged polyethylene films with synthesized citrate-capped gold nanoparticles, and chloroauric acid precursor. results indicate a decreasing impedance of the polyethylene films caused by the transport of ions through the film. SEM imaging was then performed for elemental analysis of the films and counter electrodes for the presence of ions. Chloride and gold ions were detected; however, no nanoparticles were found. This gives an estimated pore size of at least 0.3 nm through the aged film. Cyclic submergence of polyethylene and polypropylene in aqueous solutions of copper sulfate and Harrison’s solution were examined. It was discovered that aging in these mixed conditions and at 90°C did cause a small, yet significant increase to tensile strength for both unaged polyethylene and polypropylene. The PE and PP in cycled and submerged conditions did not have tensile strengths significantly different from dry-aged after 16 weeks. For both solutions, it was determined that capacitance increases with both water tree depth and cable temperature and is relatively independent of changing water tree AR. As for resistance, there is no apparent change between depth percentages of 10 and 80 for both solutions. This is because the water tree has not yet entered the conductor and thus there is no shorting current flowing through the tree yet. Between 80 and 100% water tree depth, it is observed that for both solutions there is a rapid decrease in resistance because the tree is now impacting the conductor shield and allowing shorting current to flow through it. The relationship between resistance and temperature was found to be inversed. As temperature increases, resistance decreases for both water tree solutions with distilled water having the most apparent difference across the range of temperatures simulated. With regards to water tree AR, resistance was found to be relatively independent at depth percentages of 10, 50, and 70, but there was some relationship at 100% depth for both solutions. At this depth, as water tree AR increased, resistance was found to also increase. Through the examination of voltage and electric field distribution plots, it was confirmed for EPR cables that increasing water tree depth leads to increasing distortion. The increase in shorting current at 100% depth for aqueous copper sulfate compared to distilled water was also visualized. Lastly, the relationship between shorting current and temperature for narrow water trees was visualized and validated using the distribution plots. This study has led to a better understanding of the effect of cable temperature, water tree solution, and geometry of the tree region on cable degradation. Furthermore, this study has documented simulation results of water tree degradation in EPR MV cables, which had been previously lacking in information. Future work in this area will add frequency into the mix and examine what effect it has on the rate of cable degradation as a result of water treeing. To compliment the work being carried by UMD on different polymer chemistries, harvested medium voltage (MV) cables were selected for accelerated aging study at ORNL. These medium voltage cables are representative of the vintages and materials that are currently in use at existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). These cables were immersed in water at 90°C and energized for a period of two years at elevated voltage. Partial discharge was measured during this period of time to track potential degradation. Unfortunately, due to the absence of failure, the extent of integration between the UMD techniques and the harvested MV insulation was limited. However, based on the findings and from the UMD research in the previous sections on polyethylene and polypropylene, follow-on characterization for harvested MV cable insulation should focus on sample preparation to take advantage of the UMD techniques to better understand mechanistic degradation in MV cable insulations. This would include: 1.) Utilization of solutions and impedance measurement insulation to track permeability in harvested and accelerated aging insulation samples, 2.) Adaptation of gold nanoparticle synthesis for electrical impedance spectroscopy with supporting SEM characterization to study pore formation in harvested and accelerated aged insulation samples, & 3.) ATR-FTIR crystallinity with multiple temperature dependent harvested MV cable insulation under different air and submerged accelerated aging. In addition, low voltage dielectric spectroscopy and high voltage dissipation factor, tan δ, could be implemented as a condition monitoring tool for harvested MV cable insulation in submerged environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stellar populations with MEGARA: The inner regions of NGC 7025

This paper aims to determine the capabilities of the MEGARA spectrograph at the Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC), which is an optical integral-field unit, for studying stellar populations. We also aim to exploit its combination of high spectral (R ~ 6000, 12 000 and 20 000) and spatial (0.62") resolution within its 12".5 × 11"​​.3 field of view. We do this by analysing the commissioning data of the nearby S0a galaxy NGC 7025. We establish a systematic method through which we can determine the properties of the stellar populations in the observations made with MEGARA, more specifically, within the MEGADES legacy project. For this paper in particular, we determine the properties of the stellar populations of NGC 7025. We used MEGARA observations of galaxy NGC 7025 that were taken during the commissioning phase of the instrument. We applied different approaches to estimate the properties of the stellar populations with the highest possible certainty. In addition to the specific study of NGC 7025 and in the context of the MEGADES survey, we have carried out a number of tests to determine the expected errors (including potential biases) in these star formation history (SFH) derivations as a function of these parameters, namely spectral setup, signal-to-noise ratio, σ, and the SFH itself. All the studies we conduct (both full spectral fitting and absorption line indices) of the stellar populations of NGC 7025 indicate that the stars that form its bulge have supersolar metallicity and considerably old ages (~10 Gyr) in general. Using three different combinations of MEGARA spectral setups, we determined that the bulge of NGC 7025 has smild negative mass-weighted age gradient. For the more detailed SFH, our results indicate that in addition to a rather constant star formation at early epochs, a peak in the formation history of the stars in the bulge is also found 3.5–4.5 Gyr ago. This partly explains the mass-weighted age gradients we measured. The scenario presented in NGC 7025 is that of an isolated galaxy under secular evolution that about 3.5–4.5 Gyr ago likely experienced a minor merger (mass ratio 1/10) that induced an increase in star formation and also perturbed the morphology of its outer disc. In addition to these specific results for NGC 7025, we report different lessons learned for the ongoing exploitation of the MEGADES survey with the GTC, such as the need to obtain combined observations in the LR-B + LR-V setups and a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 20 per Å.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study

Over 3 million people still die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM 2.5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (e.g., to avoid 1.5°C of warming) may also dramatically improve air quality and public health. Yet there has been no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes under different energy pathways and local clean air management decisions in China. In particular, further research is needed to understand the relationships among climate and clean air polices and future health burdens in China, where an aging population will further exacerbate the impacts of air pollution. Using a China-focused integrated assessment model (GCAM-China) and a dynamic emission projection model (DPEC), we project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (i.e. 1.5°0C, 2°C, NDC, unambitious, baseline, and 4.5°C) as well as national clean air actions (i.e. 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluate the health impacts of PM2·5 air pollution of scenario matrix using the chemical transport model WRF-CMAQ and the latest epidemiological concentration–response (C-R) functions (i.e. GBD2019). We find that, without ambitious climate mitigation (e.g., under current NDC pledges), Chinese deaths related the PM2.5 air pollution do not substantially decrease—and often grow—by mid-century, regardless of clean air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in scenarios that track China’s current NDC pledge and deploy best-available pollution control technologies, PM 2.5 -related deaths in China decrease slightly by 2030 (to 1.2 million per year) but no further by mid-century (Ambitious-pollution-NDC-goals; 1.2 million deaths in 2050) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (27.2 to 16.0 µg/m 3 from 2030 to 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM 2·5 -related deaths in many of our scenarios reveals the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the established fact of increasing age of China’s population in future. Substantial decreases in China’s PM 2.5 -related deaths and age-standardized death rates (e.g., decreasing by 0.3–0.5 million deaths and 10.2–14.2 per 100,000 population age-standardized death rates per year) thus require the sort of large-scale transition in energy sources entailed by scenarios that meet international climate goals to avoid 1.5°C and 2°C of warming (Ambitious-pollution-2°C- and 1.5°C-goals).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Low-Cost Preform and Molding Processes

The entry cost for prototyping a composite component for manufacture using automated, high rate processes is prohibitively expensive in many cases, especially for small business, where tooling costs may be several $100k. Discussions with industry also indicate that many small companies, tier 1 and 2 suppliers, have an interest to mold composite parts but do not want to deal with the capital cost, material handling issues, and labor associated with dry fiber preforming operations. While the molders may locate near the end user for logistics reasons, it may be more cost effective for the performer to remain regional and invest in capital equipment to support preform automation, thus keeping costs to a minimum. This project was designed to explore and demonstrate several options to meet these industry needs. Dry fiber preforming approaches were evaluated which allow for low pressure resin infusion, single sided tooling options such a vacuum assisted resin transfer molding (VARTM) or low pressure resin transfer molding (RTM-light). Unlike sheet molding compound, SMC compression molding where typical molding pressures of 1000 psi are required to push material into the desired location; positioning of a dry fiber preform into the desired location on the tool allows for low molding pressures of 10-50 psi. Lower molding pressures allow for use of low cost, additive fabrication of polymeric tooling. Polymeric tooling is suitable for rapid part prototyping and limited production. Dry fiber preforming approaches evaluated included use of commercial chopped strand mat, robotic chopper gun deposition, and continuous fiber preform augmentation using tailored fiber placement (TFP). Use of chopped strand mat does not require a robotic deposition method, however a cutting table is generally required and there is typically 20-30% scrap generation. While various fiber areal weights are available, the preform is not readily optimized for minimal fiber use or weight savings. In contrast, a robotic chopper gun approach allows for localized deposition where fiber is required to meet structural requirements. The robotic method is highly automated and minimizes fiber scrap, however the capital cost of the equipment and engineering labor for programming can result in higher preform cost compared to chopped strand mat in certain cases depending on preform complexity. Dry fiber preforming using the robotic chopper gun method allows for creation of three dimensional forms. This approach may be ideal for molding in-house, or if the preforms stack together densely to allow for efficient shipping. Applications evaluated for this program considered trade-off between fabrication of a fully 3D preform versus production of a flat preform which is designed to readily drape into the final desired shape. Such a preform design greatly simplifies robotic programming and requires no specialized tooling. The flat preforms are easily stacked and shipped to the final molding location. Flat preforms are much easier to augment with TFP continuous fiber to provide local reinforcement. The demonstration and evaluation of these preforming and tooling methods were completed on three component applications. The first application was a battery box cover for an electric vehicle which was highly three dimensional. The second demonstrator article was comprised of complex contours and was used to demonstrate the use of TFP and RTM-light molding process. The third demonstration article was the roof of an operator’s cab for large construction equipment. The roof is relatively flat however it is comprised of complex changes in thickness which clearly demonstrate the advantage of robotic chopper gun approach as compared to using numerous preform layers of chopped strand mat. The cost trades for the various preforming methods are summarized to help guide the reader as to preforming method considerations. Finally, these demonstrations all used glass fiber roving. A fourth, exploratory task was added to evaluate the ability to make preforms using Zoltek’s carbon fiber split tow roving. We were able to adapt the chopper gun to make flat preforms for laminate testing, but further development effort would be required to make suitable preforms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial assessment of alternative carbon fiber geometries for design of cost-effective compressive performance: Size effect studies

Carbon fiber provides opportunity to reduce weight in structural composites, including wind turbine blades, due to the material's superior specific stiffness and specific strength compared to alternatives. Despite these advantages, cost and compressive performance are considered weaknesses for carbon fiber products available today. Studies to produce low-cost carbon fiber alternatives, including the use of textile-derived precursor systems, have shown progress and merit through the DOE/ORNL low-cost carbon fiber initiatives. Here, this work focuses on enabling increases in compressive strength through design of the carbon fiber geometry, applicable to both textile and conventional precursor systems, while also providing opportunities to reduce carbon fiber processing costs. Fiber-resin interface and fiber alignment are among the most frequently cited factors controlling composite compressive performance. However, it is believed that there is opportunity in traditionally unexplored routes to increasing compressive strength through alteration of the carbon fiber geometry by increasing the fiber area moment of inertia and/or the fiber perimeter and interfacial area. This paper presents initial results from manufacturing carbon fiber materials to assess the impacts of carbon fiber size on tested composite compressive performance with projected neutral or even beneficial impact on fiber and composite manufacturing economics. Carbon fiber systems with increasing size illustrate a favorable correlation for compressive performance greater than predicted from a micromechanical failure model. The manufacturing and mechanical test results support the hypothesis of this work that alterations to fiber geometry can be used to produce improvements of the compressive strength of carbon fiber reinforced polymers and provide incentive for related work in designing alternative shapes to further enhance compressive performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Interactions Between Shading and Organic Fertilizer Application on Dry-farmed Tomato Grown Between Photovoltaic Panels

Agrivoltaic systems are mixed systems of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and agricultural production, where shade from the panels can result in lower evapotranspiration for crops, which is of particular interest for dryland agriculture. Dry-farmed tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) production in the Willamette Valley of Oregon has lower total yields and higher rates of blossom-end rot (BER) than irrigated tomato production, resulting in reduced marketable yields. To determine how dry-farmed ‘Early Girl’ tomato performed in an agrivoltaics system, a trial was conducted at the Valley Creek Solar Project (Salem, OR, USA) in 2020, using three different amendment treatments and three levels of shading from the panels. Amendment treatments were 0N (receiving no fertilizer), 84N (receiving 84 kg·ha −1 N), and 168N (receiving 168 kg·ha −1 N), applied as processed chicken manure. Plants were estimated to receive an irradiance factor of 30%, 76%, and 89% for full-shade, partial-shade, and full-sun treatments respectively. There was an interaction between amendment treatments and shading treatments in their effects on unblemished yield (yield of fruit without BER or sunscald). The optimum fertilizer application for full-shade and partial-shade rows was 84N, the optimum for full-sun rows was 0N. Fertilizing these rows at these rates resulted in an unblemished yield for the aisle of 11.1 t·ha −1 , which was lower than unblemished yields reported in previous experiments and trials in open fields. However, these results are from a single location and a single year, and other solar sites may behave more similar to open-field conditions. Shading from the panels increased average fruit weight and decreased incidence of BER and sunscald, suggesting that crops were less drought stressed. This resulted in similar unblemished yields for the full-shade and full-sun plots at 84N and 168N. Applying fertilizer resulted in higher total yields, smaller average fruit weight, increased BER incidence, and decreased sunscald incidence. The results suggest a possible synergy between dry-farmed tomato production and agrivoltaics, although several concerns remain, including difficulties managing the vegetation under panels, rules restricting PVs on high-value agricultural soils, and the possibility of soil compaction during PV installation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toxicology and Biodegradability of Blendstocks for Mixing Controlled Compression Ignition Combustion: Literature Review of Available Data

The goal of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Co-Optima project is to develop an understanding of potential biomass-derived blendstocks for use in the transportation sector. This report documents the estimated environmental and toxicological impact of potential bioblendstocks for mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) engines. The candidate molecules were: 2-nonanol; n-undecane; 2,6,10-trimethyldodecane; 5-ethyl-4-propylnonane; hexylhexanoate; methyldecanoate; dibutoxymethane; 4-butoxyheptane; dipentylether; renewable diesel; and soy biodiesel. To provide a robust comparison, diesel surrogate molecules were also considered: α-methylnaphthalene; decahydronaphthalene; 2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethylnonane; n-butylcyclohexane; n-hexadecane; tetralin; and n-dodecylbenzene. The intent of this work was not to provide absolute answers and remove any molecules from consideration, but to provide more robust data for each molecule that can be used in subsequent evaluations. Little literature data was available for many of the molecules, both potential blendstocks and diesel surrogates, so a quantitative structural activity relationship (QSAR) approach was used to provide input into the relevant models. This assessment included an evaluation of compartment partitioning in the event of an accidental chemical spill, fate and transport indicators, estimated biodegradability, and human and environmental toxicology. The higher molecular weight and longer hydrocarbon chain lengths of these MCCI molecules reduce water solubility and mobility. Generally, the oxygenated molecules improved biodegradability metrics. The hydrocarbons farnesane and 5-Et-4-PrNonane are not predicted to be biodegradable. Human acute toxicity was found to be slightly to non-toxic for the MCCI blendstocks and the diesel surrogates. 2-Nonanol, undecane, MeDecanoate, dibutoxymethane, and dipentylether were likely developmental toxicants. Although poorly water soluble, all the compounds, whether Co-Optima blendstocks or diesel surrogates, showed significant toxicity to D. magna. The oxygenated blendstocks were less likely to bioaccumulate than the non-oxygenated blendstocks, which behaved similar to the diesel surrogates. Overall, this predicted analysis showed that the MCCI blendstocks are very similar to their diesel counterparts. No significant showstoppers were found that would indicate concern moving forward with additional research into these potential fuels. The results presented were based solely on predictive models and serve to provide information going forward for continued evaluation of these molecules.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

ESI-FTICR-MS Analysis of Organic Matter during Incubations with Nitrogen Addition, Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

This dataset contains the results of the molecular characterization of water-extractable organic matter collected during soil microcosm incubations of tundra soil. The microcosms contained soil collected in April 2017 from the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) near Intensive Site 9 (“Toeslope”) and Intensive Site 5 (“Plateau”). The incubations were conducted under an atmosphere of N2 at 8°C for 55 days, with or without addition of ammonium chloride (NH4Cl). Soils were extracted with deionized water and extracted using Bond Elut PPL cartridges prior to analysis. Molecular characterization was performed using electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (ESI- FTICR-MS). Two data files are provided with this dataset. The first is the summary, by soil type and treatment, of the mass spectrometry results for formulas (as a % of the total) containing C, H, and O only, and with N, S, and other elements. These formulas were then grouped into nine biochemical classes of compounds based on O:C and H:C ratios. The second file provides soil sample characteristics and the processed high-resolution mass spectrometry results by soil type and treatment.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonic analysis of discrete tracers of large-scale structure

It is commonplace in cosmology to analyze fields projected onto the celestial sphere, and in particular density fields that are defined by a set of points e.g. galaxies. When performing an harmonic-space analysis of such data (e.g. an angular power spectrum) using a pixelized map one has to deal with aliasing of small-scale power and pixel window functions. We compare and contrast the approaches to this problem taken in the cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure communities, and advocate for a direct approach that avoids pixelization. We describe a method for performing a pseudo-spectrum analysis of a galaxy data set and show that it can be implemented efficiently using well-known algorithms for special functions that are suited to acceleration by graphics processing units (GPUs). The method returns the same spectra as the more traditional map-based approach if in the latter the number of pixels is taken to be sufficiently large and the mask is well sampled. The method is readily generalizable to cross-spectra and higher-order functions. It also provides a convenient route for distributing the information in a galaxy catalog directly in harmonic space, as a complement to releasing the configuration-space positions and weights, and a route to spectral apodization. Finally, we make public a code enabling the application of our method to existing and upcoming datasets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

OpenET: Filling a Critical Data Gap in Water Management for the Western United States

The lack of consistent, accurate information on evapotranspiration (ET) and consumptive use of water by irrigated agriculture is one of the most important data gaps for water managers in the western United States (U.S.) and other arid agricultural regions globally. The ability to easily access information on ET is central to improving water budgets across the West, advancing the use of data-driven irrigation management strategies, and expanding incentive-driven conservation programs. Recent advances in remote sensing of ET have led to the development of multiple approaches for field-scale ET mapping that have been used for local and regional water resource management applications by U.S. state and federal agencies. The OpenET project is a community-driven effort that is building upon these advances to develop an operational system for generating and distributing ET data at a field scale using an ensemble of six well-established satellite-based approaches for mapping ET. Key objectives of OpenET include: Increasing access to remotely sensed ET data through a web-based data explorer and data services; supporting the use of ET data for a range of water resource management applications; and development of use cases and training resources for agricultural producers and water resource managers. Here we describe the OpenET framework, including the models used in the ensemble, the satellite, meteorological, and ancillary data inputs to the system, and the OpenET data visualization and access tools. We also summarize an extensive intercomparison and accuracy assessment conducted using ground measurements of ET from 139 flux tower sites instrumented with open path eddy covariance systems. Results calculated for 24 cropland sites from Phase I of the intercomparison and accuracy assessment demonstrate strong agreement between the satellite-driven ET models and the flux tower ET data. For the six models that have been evaluated to date (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, geeSEBAL, PT-JPL, SIMS, and SSEBop) and the ensemble mean, the weighted average mean absolute error (MAE) values across all sites range from 13.6 to 21.6 mm/month at a monthly timestep, and 0.74 to 1.07 mm/day at a daily timestep. At seasonal time scales, for all but one of the models the weighted mean total ET is within ±8% of both the ensemble mean and the weighted mean total ET calculated from the flux tower data. Overall, the ensemble mean performs as well as any individual model across nearly all accuracy statistics for croplands, though some individual models may perform better for specific sites and regions. We conclude with three brief use cases to illustrate current applications and benefits of increased access to ET data, and discuss key lessons learned from the development of OpenET.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of a deep learning semantic segmentation model to helium bubbles and voids in nuclear materials

Imaging nanoscale radiation-induced defects using the transmission electron microscope (TEM) is a key factor in the successful implementation of materials for nuclear energy structural applications. Analyzing each defect in a TEM micrograph is currently a manual task. To identify the defects in a single image can take anywhere from 15 min to an hour and a project can require the analysis of anywhere from tens to ≥ 100 images. Here, we use artificial intelligence (AI) models to automate this task. For simplification, we evaluated images with only a single type of defect; helium bubbles. Additionally, we performed semantic segmentation of these helium bubble defects in electron microscopy images of irradiated FeCrAl alloys using a deep learning DefectSegNet model. This model, which was previously used to classify crystal defects, is inspired by the classic DenseNet and U-Net image segmentation models. It claims high spatial resolution, but has poor performance at object boundaries. Our paper improves the DefectSegNet model’s application by adding two new features. First, the DefectSegNet model is applied not only to perform calculation pixel-wise but also object (or feature) wise. Because object-wise metrics are directly relevant to our final goal of detecting bubbles, whereas pixel-wise classification is only an intermediate step, it is an important part of our study. Second, a distance map loss (DML) function has been added to increase its performance at object boundaries. It is crucial to accurately represent defects boundaries, especially bubbles, in order to track the bubble-induced swelling caused by irradiation. The boundary-focused DML function is also compared to other loss functions like Cross-entropy, Weighted Binary Cross Entropy (WBCE), Dice and Intersection over Union (IOU). Finally, by incorporating new features, we found a marked improvement on segmentation quality and better shape preservation at the boundaries and areas of the bubbles.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Practical Probabilistic Programming

Recent advances in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) have provided the capability for exact inference: computing a closed-form probability distribution for a given probabilistic program. In particular, the new language Roulette uses a language oriented programming (LOP) approach, wherein analysts build new programming languages on top of a set of primitives provided by Roulette, which then translates these structures into a weighted model counting problem which can be solved by automated reasoning tools. However, because Roulette provides few convenience features, developing these new languages is challenging even for expert users. We developed a standard library of common probability functions for Roulette with the goal of improved usability. This included approximation of continuous probability density functions using discrete probability mass functions. We demonstrated this approach by modeling a cosmic ray striking a RAM controller. We found that Roulette provides a powerful interface for highly expressive probabilistic programs to be generated. In collaboration with the NNSA Advanced Simulation and Computing program, which resulted in development of a tool called Circulette, we were able to model complex circuits expressed in Verilog using probabilistic programs with an expressivity not previously possible. Our research question that motivated the development of a Roulette standard library was to determine whether non-experts could use a PPL to model relevant problems regarding radiation effects on microelectronics. This standard library improved the expressivity of Roulette by implementing common probability density functions, mathematical operators on distributions, and support for empirical distributions. While Roulette is a powerful modeling language, the untyped, LOP approach makes error messages difficult to understand and requires expert aid. We recommend further research on Roulette, especially with its error messages, to enable improved usability. At the same time, this project demonstrated that for users familiar with Roulette and the LOP approach, Roulette provides powerful new capabilities that can be integrated with other Sandia modeling capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗