Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variable importance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Non-Boltzmann Effects in Chain Branching and Pathway Branching for Diethyl Ether Oxidation

Low-temperature (LT) engine applications have several potential benefits, including reduced emissions and increased efficiency. Attaining these benefits requires accurate kinetic modeling of LT chain branching, which depends heavily on ketohydroperoxide (KHP) decomposition. For diethyl ether (DEE), a promising biofuel, current estimates of the KHP decomposition rate constant are largely based on empirical fits to data. In this study, we investigate the most important KHP isomer in DEE LT oxidation by applying variable reaction coordinate transition state theory to the main pathway for KHP decomposition: OO bond fission to produce •OH and a keto-alkoxy radical, •OQ'O. We also use ab initio kinetics methods to investigate the decomposition of •OQ'O, where we find dominant branching to acetic acid, with the remaining flux going to CH 3 C(O)OCHO. Additionally, new time-resolved measurements of DEE and acetic acid concentrations during LT (450–600 K) DEE oxidation are obtained in a laser photolysis flow reactor coupled with multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry. These new experimental data, along with jet-stirred reactor data in the literature, are compared with the predictions of a recent DEE mechanism (Tran et al. Proc. Comb. Inst. 2019, 37, 511-519) that was modified with the newly calculated ab initio rate constants for KHP and •OQ'O decomposition. The predictions of the modified mechanism are quite poor when compared to the experimental data; this is primarily due to the new KHP ⇌ •OQ'O + •OH rate constant, which is 1–2 orders of magnitude slower than empirical values employed in recent mechanisms. To reconcile the new KHP rate constant and the experimental data, we explore and quantify the possible role of non-Boltzmann (nB) reaction sequences. The nB reactions have a substantial effect on both the overall mechanism reactivity and the •OQ'O branching to acetic acid. We also provide guidance on the proper implementation of nB reactions in kinetic mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Linear Response Function Reveals the Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing September Arctic Sea Ice Melting in CESM

We apply the linear response function method to investigate the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice and its corresponding remote oceanic forcing in climate models. The method is useful in identifying the fundamental, dynamical and causal relationship between the remote forcing and sea ice response. We find that the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice preferentially takes place over the Pacic side of the Arctic and its remote forcing corresponds to a dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly in the tropics with an increase of precipitation over the western and central tropical and subtropical Pacic ocean while a decrease over the Maritime Continent. The tropical precipitation anomaly likely drives a Rossby wave train propagating toward higher latitudes and leads to a ridge anomaly over the Pacic side of the Arctic, resulting in poleward atmospheric heat transport, enhanced downward longwave radiation and thus melting of the sea ice. In addition, a good agreement is found with the leading tropical Arctic teleconnection mode detected in a pre-industrial control simulation, which supports the usefulness and robustness of the linear response function method and the importance of tropical forcing in shaping the sea ice variability.

Wu, Yutian↗

Hydrobiogeochemical Controls on the Delivery of Dissolved Organic Matter to Boreal Headwater Streams

Understanding controls on the delivery of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from terrestrial to aquatic systems is key for constraining carbon balances and fluxes in boreal headwater catchments. The largest export of DOM generally occurs during intense periods of water delivery to the landscape (e.g., rain events); however, the timing and magnitude of DOM is complicated by geomorphological, hydrometeorological, and biogeochemical variability. To better assess mechanisms controlling the delivery of DOM to boreal streams, DOM was investigated in two morphologically distinct catchments of an experimental forest watershed in western Newfoundland, one dominated by low relief wetlands and the other by steep hillslopes. The DOM was compared during two fall storms of similar magnitude but contrasting moisture conditions during the autumn transition. Variable concentrations and optical character highlighted antecedent conditions are important for the delivery of DOM to boreal streams. Concentration-discharge relationships with stream hydrograph separation analysis suggest preferential flowpaths through shallow mineral horizons as a key pathway for delivery of DOM in the hillslope dominated catchment compared to rapid input from near-stream wetlands in the low relief catchment. Loss of DOM via preferential pathways suggests an additional mechanism for surface soil carbon loss not directly informed by lateral flow and soil hydrology, which has important implications for our conceptualization and modeling of carbon fluxes in boreal systems. These results suggest watershed scale responses of DOM in boreal headwater catchments are complex, and better linkages between catchment scale hydrology and landscape hydrobiogeochemistry are required to constrain terrestrial to aquatic carbon fluxes in boreal landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Population Genomics of Pseudocercospora griseola Reveals New Groups in the Middle American Clade and the Presence of the Endophytic Bacterium Achromobacter xylosoxidans

Angular leaf spot (ALS), caused by Pseudocercospora griseola is an important disease of common beans. P. griseola, is highly variable and has co-evolved with its host. In this study, 48 isolates of P. griseola from Puerto Rico, Guatemala, Honduras and Tanzania were sequenced (3RADseq), resulting in the de novo assembly of 42,214 contigs. Phylogenomic, population genetic structure and principal component analyses using 1,260 SNPs divided these isolates into two populations, Andean and Middle American, while the Middle American population was further divided into three sub-populations. There were moderate to high levels of differentiation between P. griseola populations, with pairwise Fst values ranging from 0.11 to 0.95. The Andean population was composed of isolates from Tanzania, and was separated from the Middle American population (Fst = 0.95). The Middle American population was separated into 3 subpopulations including isolates from: 1. Guatemala and Honduras, 2. Tanzania, and 3. Puerto Rico. Pathogenicity testing of 27 isolates from Puerto Rico, using 12 common bean differential lines, identified ten races, but these races were not associated with SNPs found in virulence genes. DNA of an endophytic bacterium (Achromobacter xylosoxidans) was found in seven mildly virulent isolates suggesting a possible role of the bacterium in the observed virulence patterns. To understand the evolution and diversity of P. griseola, further study of the virulence genes and the interactions among the endophytic bacterium, the fungus, and the host plant is required. Such information is critical to inform breeding strategies for the development of resistant germplasm and cultivars.

Serrato-Diaz, Luz M. [U.S. Department of Agricultu↗

Efficiency and Output Power Sensitivity to Control Parameter Variations in an LCC-Series Wireless Power Transfer System

In wireless power transfer (WPT) systems, output power (Pout) can be controlled through input parameters such as, input voltage (Vin) , duty cycle (d) , and switching frequency (fsw) . The impact of these control parameters on the overall system efficiency has not been explored in previous studies. This paper focuses on the efficiency (η) and Pout sensitivity to these control parameter variations in an LCC-Series tuned WPT system. There are multiple combinations of Vin, d , and fsw that can achieve a specified target Pout . However, it is important to determine the optimal combination of these control variables that will yield the maximum η for a target Pout . A MATLAB/Simulink model is built to calculate and measure η and Pout . In order to achieve this result, several simulations are run where Vin,d , and fsw are swept across a wide range to cover all possible combinations. MATLAB's Sensitivity Analysis toolbox is used to evaluate how the parameters influence the model's output. Finally, an experimental prototype is implemented. The optimal values acquired using the sensitivity analysis is then plugged into the hardware prototype and compared with the simulation. The results obtained confirm the validity of the proposed method.

Harave, Sudarshan↗

Electrifying Airport GSE: Monte Carlo Grid Impacts

Airports globally are shifting from ICE-powered to electric Ground Support Equipment (eGSE) to enhance efficiency, reduce operational costs, and improve operator health. Leveraging predictable routes, flat terrain, and low operational speeds, airports provide ideal conditions for electrification. This study evaluates freight GSE electrification at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), USA, using the Agile@ platform, which integrates three analytical methods: Freight Facility Model (FFM), Activity-Structure-Intensity-Fuel (ASIF), and Monte Carlo simulations. Results from 10,000 simulations indicate modest but critical increases in electricity demand and significant variability in GSE energy consumption. These insights emphasize the importance of data-driven scheduling, targeted maintenance, and strategic infrastructure planning. For high-uncertainty scenarios, airports are advised to deploy buffer energy storage systems (battery banks), implement demand-response charging strategies, schedule flexible workforce shifts, and prioritize proactive maintenance-particularly for equipment with higher operational uncertainty, such as tug tractors with trailers. Agile@ thus offers a robust, scalable, and data-driven framework to optimize long-term GSE planning and enhance reliability across diverse airport environments.

Bose, Ranjan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000791026327)↗

Visualization and Decision Making Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty is an important aspect to data understanding. Without awareness of the variability, error, or reliability of a dataset, the ability to make decisions on that data is limited. However, practices around uncertainty visualization remain domain-specific, rooted in convention, and in many instances, absent entirely. Part of the reason for this may be a lack of established guidelines for navigating difficult choices of when uncertainty should be added, how to visualize uncertainty, and how to evaluate its effectiveness. Unsurprisingly, the inclusion of uncertainty into visualizations is a major challenge to visualization. As work concerned with uncertainty visualization grows, it has become clear that simple visual additions of uncertainty information to traditional visualization methods do not appropriately convey the meaning of the uncertainty, pose many perceptual challenges, and, in the worst case, can lead a viewer to a completely wrong understanding of the data. These challenges are the driving motivator for this special issue.

data models↗

Influences of cloud vertical overlapping on the calculated cloud albedo and their validation with satellite observations

Cloud albedo is expected to influence cloud radiative forcing in addition to cloud fraction, and inadequate description of the cloud overlapping effects on the cloud fraction may influence the simulated cloud fraction, and thus the relative cloud radiative forcing (RCRF) and cloud albedo. In this study, we first present a new formula by extending that presented previously in Liu et al. (2011) to consider multilayer clouds directly in the relationship between cloud albedo, cloud fraction and RCRF, and then quantitatively evaluate the effects of different cloud vertical overlapping structures, represented by the decorrelation length scales (L cf ), on the simulated cloud albedos. We use the BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero model with simultaneous validation by observations from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiation Energy System (CERES) satellite. When L cf < 4 km (i.e., the cloud overlap is closer to the random overlap), the simulated cloud albedos are generally in good agreement with the satellite-based albedos for December– February and June–August; when L cf ≥ 4 km (i.e., the cloud vertical overlap is closer to the maximum overlap), the difference between simulated and observed cloud albedos became larger, due mainly to significant differences in cloud fractions and RCRF. Further quantitative analysis shows that the relative Euclidean distance, which represents the degree of overall model–observation disagreement, increases with the L cf for all three variables (cloud albedo, cloud fraction and RCRF), indicating the importance of cloud vertical overlapping in determining the accuracy of the calculated cloud albedo for multilayer clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

X-Ray Radiography and Phase-Contrast Imaging of the Engine Combustion Network Spray B Sprays and Injection

X-ray measurements of diesel sprays from two of the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray B injectors are described. Measurements in these three-hole nozzles complement both visible light measurements of these sprays and previous x-ray measurements of the axial single-hole ECN Spray A injectors. Both axial and lateral motions of the injector needle valve were measured with x-ray phase contrast imaging. Additionally, the liquid mass distribution in room temperature sprays at elevated ambient pressure was determined with x-ray radiography. Measurements of both needle valve motion and spray distribution were performed at both the standard Spray A/B conditions and with selected variations of injection pressure, ambient density, and injection timing. The needle valve motion for the Spray B injectors is quite similar to that of the Spray A injectors, though little lateral motion is seen in either Spray B injector. Compared to the sprays from the Spray A injectors, the sprays from Spray B penetrate more slowly in the near-nozzle region, demonstrate a broader, more uniform distribution in the transverse direction, and are significantly more variable with respect to time. These differences demonstrate the importance of studies with multi-hole nozzles to provide insight into applied diesel combustion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

GNSS Installation at the ARM North Slope of Alaska Atmospheric Observatory Field Campaign Report

GRUAN, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above Earth's surface, designed to fill an important gap in the current global observing system. GRUAN’s objectives are to (1) provide long-term, high-quality climate records, (2) constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems (including satellites and current radiosonde networks) and (3) fully characterize the properties of the atmospheric column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GNSS Installation at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Observatory Field Campaign Report

GRUAN, the GCOS Reference Upper Air Network, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above Earth's surface, designed to fill an important gap in the current global observing system. GRUAN’s objectives are to (1) provide long-term, high-quality climate records, (2) constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems (including satellites and current radiosonde networks), and (3) fully characterize the properties of the atmospheric column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GNSS Installation at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Atmospheric Observatory Field Campaign Report

GRUAN, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above Earth's surface, designed to fill an important gap in the current global observing system. GRUAN’s objectives are to (1) provide long-term, high-quality climate records, (2) constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems (including satellites and current radiosonde networks), and (3) fully characterize the properties of the atmospheric column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nickel Binding to the c-Src SH3 Domain Facilitates Crystallization

Introduction: Numerous X-ray crystal structures of the c-Src SH3 domain have provideda large sampling of atomic-level information for this important signaling domain. Multiple crystalforms have been reported, with variable crystal lattice contacts and chemical crystallizationconditions. Materials and Methods: We crystallized the c-Src SH3 domain in a crystallization buffercontaining NiCl2. Results: A unique crystal structure of the Src SH3 domain in the trigonal space group H32 isdetermined to 1.45 Å resolution. Crystal packing and anomalous scattering reveal that this crystalform is mediated by two ordered nickel ions provided by the crystallization buffer. Nickelcoordination occurs in a 2:2 stoichiometry, which dimerizes two SH3 domain monomers across apseudo-twofold rotation axis and involves the native N-terminal c-Src SH3 amino acid sequence, asurface-exposed histidine residue, and ordered water molecules. Discussion: This study provides an example of metal-mediated crystallization and metal binding byN-terminal protein residues, contrasting with the Amino-Terminal Copper and Nickel Binding(ATCUN) motif. Conclusion: Alternative avenues help widen the potential for future crystallography-based studiesof the c-Src SH3 domain.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Evidence for Black Holes in Green Peas from WISE Colors and Variability

We explore the presence of active galactic nuclei (AGNs)/black holes in Green Pea galaxies (GPs), motivated by the presence of high-ionization emission lines such as He ii and [Ne iii] in their optical spectra. In order to identify AGN candidates, we used mid-infrared (MIR) photometric observations from the all-sky Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission for a sample of 1004 GPs. Considering only >5σ detections with no contamination from neighboring sources in AllWISE, we select 31 GPs out of 134 as candidate AGNs based on a stringent three-band WISE color diagnostic. Using multi-epoch photometry in W1 and W2 bands based on time-resolved unWISE coadd images, we find two sources exhibiting variability in both the WISE bands among 112 GPs with W1 ≤16 mag and no contamination from neighboring sources in unWISE. These two variable sources were selected as AGNs by the WISE three-band color diagnostic as well. Compared to variable AGN fractions observed among low-mass galaxy samples in previous studies, we find a higher fraction (~1.8%) of MIR variable sources among GPs, which demonstrates the uniqueness and importance of studying these extreme objects. Through this work, we demonstrate that MIR diagnostics are promising tools to select AGNs that may be missed by other selection techniques (including optical emission-line ratios and X-ray emission) in star formation-dominated, low-mass, low-metallicity galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Projecting Electric Vehicle Electricity Demands and Charging Loads

After over a century of petroleum dominance, electric vehicles are rapidly disrupting the transportation energy landscape. At the same time, the electric power systems are undergoing profound changes as variable renewables replace dispatchable fossil generators. It is critically important to understand how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system, and the value of flexible electric vehicle charging to better balance electricity demand and supply. This talk focuses on methods to project electricity demand for EV charging with high spatiotemporal fidelity to enable electricity system modeling and analysis and summarizes results from recent NREL studies in this area.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗