Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Formaldehyde Column Density Measurements as a Suitable Pathway to Estimate Near-Surface Ozone Tendencies from Space

In support of future satellite missions that aim to address the current shortcomings in measuring air quality from space, NASA's Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) field campaign was designed to enable exploration of relationships between column measurements of trace species relevant to air quality at high spatial and temporal resolution. In the DISCOVER-AQ data set, a modest correlation (r2 = 0.45) between ozone (O3) and formaldehyde (CH2O) column densities was observed. Further analysis revealed regional variability in the O3-CH2O relationship, with Maryland having a strong relationship when data were viewed temporally and Houston having a strong relationship when data were viewed spatially. These differences in regional behavior are attributed to differences in volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. In Maryland, biogenic VOCs were responsible for approx.28% of CH2O formation within the boundary layer column, causing CH2O to, in general, increase monotonically throughout the day. In Houston, persistent anthropogenic emissions dominated the local hydrocarbon environment, and no discernable diurnal trend in CH2O was observed. Box model simulations suggested that ambient CH2O mixing ratios have a weak diurnal trend (+/-20% throughout the day) due to photochemical effects, and that larger diurnal trends are associated with changes in hydrocarbon precursors. Finally, mathematical relationships were developed from first principles and were able to replicate the different behaviors seen in Maryland and Houston. While studies would be necessary to validate these results and determine the regional applicability of the O3-CH2O relationship, the results presented here provide compelling insight into the ability of future satellite missions to aid in monitoring near-surface air quality.

Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Reso↗

Improving NASA GEOS Atmospheric CO2 Simulations by Calibrating CASA Surface Fluxes with an Empirical Sink

With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.

Weir, B.↗

Relating Land Cover Change to Runoff Distribution Using NASA Earth Observations in Riley County, Kansas

Riley County, Kansas, has observed increased levels of flooding, potentially due to changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and seasonal vegetation variation. This study contrasts two methods of generating runoff curve numbers (CN) from 2006-2020. (1) The traditional Soil Conservation Service CN calculation method uses a look-up table and tracked LULC to determine runoff changes. These tables allow for CN values specific to various land and crop cover types and account for various farming best practices but lack flexibility in calculations for various seasons or plant health. (2) A dynamic method employs normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) compiled over the rainy season each year to calculate CN using seasonal vegetation. This method allows for a more precise analysis of runoff variability within and between rainy seasons because it can be updated with greater temporal detail and it captures higher spatial resolutions by using NDVI as a proxy for LULC. This study further uses inputs from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer, and Landsat imagery to create more precise LULC raster datasets including both urban cover and crop-specific land use and curve number maps of the area. Results can guide decision makers in the City of Manhattan, Riley County Department of Planning and Development, Riley County Conservation District, the Kansas Forest Service, and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment toward informed decisions on resiliency strategies to address future flooding.

Ella Griffith↗

Riley County Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Runoff Curve Calculation Methods to Inform Local Resiliency Initiatives in Riley County, Kansas

Riley County, Kansas, has observed increased levels of flooding, potentially due to changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and seasonal vegetation variation. This study contrasts two methods of generating runoff curve numbers (CN) from 2006-2020. (1) The traditional Soil Conservation Service CN calculation method uses a look-up table and tracked LULC to determine runoff changes. These tables allow for land cover-specific CN and account for various farming techniques but lack flexibility in calculations for various seasons or plant health. (2) A dynamic method employs normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) compiled over the rainy season each year to calculate CN using seasonal vegetation. This method allows for a more precise analysis of runoff variability within and between rainy seasons because it can be updated with greater temporal detail and captures higher spatial resolutions by using NDVI as a proxy for LULC. This study further uses inputs from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer, and Landsat imagery to create more precise LULC raster datasets including both urban cover and crop-specific land use and curve number maps of the area. Results can guide decision makers in the City of Manhattan, Riley County Department of Planning and Development, Riley County Conservation District, the Kansas Forest Service, and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment toward informed decisions on resiliency strategies to address future flooding.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Relating Land Cover Change to Runoff Distribution Using NASA Earth Observations in Riley County, Kansas

In recent years, Riley County, Kansas experienced high levels of flooding potentially due to changes in land use and impervious surface. To analyze the increase in floods and runoff patterns over time, this study contrasted two methods of curve number (CN) calculation, which estimated runoff from rainfall events, from 2006-2020. The conventional calculation method used a look-up table and tracked land use/land cover change. This method resulted in static tables from various inputs such as soil type, surface imperviousness, slope, and crop phenology to estimate runoff versus infiltration. These tables allowed for phenology specific curve numbers and accounted for various farming techniques but required many inputs and lacked flexibility to include seasonal variations in vegetation. In contrast, the dynamic method is a more modern and simple calculation employing normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8 satellites compiled over the rainy season each year to calculate curve numbers based off seasonal vegetation. This dynamic method allowed for more precise analysis of runoff variability because NDVI is a more accurate, real-time measurement for land cover and it could be calculated with greater temporal detail. The results will allow decision makers to make more informed decisions on resiliency strategies to address future flooding.

Trista Brophy↗

Larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth response to climate change in the Siberian permafrost zone

Larch-dominant communities are the most extensive high-latitude forests in Eurasia and are experiencing the strongest impacts from warming temperatures. We analyzed larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth index (GI) response to climate change. The studied larch-dominant communities are located within the permafrost zone of Northern Siberia at the northern tree limit (ca. N 67° 38′, E 99° 07′). Methods included dendrochronology, analysis of climate variables, root zone moisture content, and satellitederived gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity. It was found that larch response to warming included a period of increased annual growth increment (GI) (from the 1970s to ca. 1995) with a follow on GI decline. Increase in GI correlated with summer air temperature, whereas an observed decrease in GI was caused by water stress (vapor pressure deficit and drought increase). Water stress impact on larch growth in permafrost was not observed before the onset of warming (ca. 1970). Water limitation was also indicated by GI dependence on soil moisture stored during the previous year. Water stress was especially pronounced for stands growing on rocky soils with low water-holding capacity. GPP of larch communities showed an increasing trend, whereas NPP stagnated. A similar pattern of GI response to climate warming has also been observed for Larix sibirica Ledeb, Pinus sibirica Du Tour, and Abies sibirica Ledeb in the forests of southern Siberia. Thus, warming in northern Siberia permafrost zone resulted in an initial increase in larch growth from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. After that time, larch growth increment has decreased. Since ca. 1990, water stress at the beginning of the vegetative period became, along with air temperature, a main factor affecting larch growth within the permafrost zone.

Larix dahurica↗

Velocity structure in long period variable star atmospheres

A regression analysis of the dependence of absorption line velocities on wavelength, line strength, excitation potential, and ionization potential is presented. The method determines the region of formation of the absorption lines for a given data and wavelength region. It is concluded that the scatter which is frequently found in velocity measurements of absorption lines in long period variables is probably the result of a shock of moderate amplitude located in or near the reversing layer and that the frequently observed correlation of velocity with excitation and ionization are a result of the velocity gradients produced by this shock in the atmosphere. A simple interpretation of the signs of the coefficients of the regression analysis is presented in terms of preshock, post shock, or across the shock, together with criteria for evaluating the validity of the fit. The amplitude of the reversing layer shock is estimated from an analysis of a series of plates for four long period variable stars along with the most probable stellar velocity for these stars.

Pilachowski, C.↗

Creation of an Upper Stage Trajectory Capability Boundary to Enable Booster System Trade Space Exploration

The problem of trajectory optimization is important in all space missions. The solution of this problem enables one to specify the optimum thrust steering program which should be followed to achieve a specified mission objective, simultaneously satisfying the constraints.1 It is well known that whether or not the ascent trajectory is optimal can have a significant impact on propellant usage for a given payload, or on payload weight for the same gross vehicle weight.2 Consequently, ascent guidance commands are usually optimized in some fashion. Multi-stage vehicles add complexity to this analysis process as changes in vehicle properties in one stage propagate to the other stages through gear ratios and changes in the optimal trajectory. These effects can cause an increase in analysis time as more variables are added and convergence of the optimizer to system closure requires more analysis iterations. In this paper, an approach to simplifying this multi-stage problem through the creation of an upper stage capability boundary is presented. This work was completed as part of a larger study focused on trade space exploration for the advanced booster system that will eventually form a part of NASA s new Space Launch System.3 The approach developed leverages Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling4 techniques to create a predictive model of the SLS upper stage performance. The design of the SLS core stages is considered fixed for the purposes of this study, which results in trajectory parameters such as staging conditions being the only variables relevant to the upper stage. Through the creation of a surrogate model, which takes staging conditions as inputs and predicts the payload mass delivered by the SLS upper stage to a reference orbit as the response, it is possible to identify a "surface" of staging conditions which all satisfy the SLS requirement of placing 130 metric tons into low-Earth orbit (LEO).3 This identified surface represents the 130 metric ton capability boundary for the upper stage, such that if the combined first stage and boosters can achieve any one staging point on that surface, then the design is identified as feasible. With the surrogate model created, design and analysis of advanced booster concepts is streamlined, as optimization of the upper stage trajectory is no longer required in every design loop.

Walsh, Ptrick↗

Sensitivity analysis of a deployable three longeron truss beam designed for minimum member loads during deployment

The significant design variables of a deployable three longeron truss beam, designed for minimum member loads during deployment, are identified and the sensitivity of the load level in the members of the truss beam due to variations of the design variables is established. The analysis of the deployment models, developed in this paper, is carried out using a commercially available computer code, called DADS. Based on the results of the analysis, guidelines are formulated for the design of a deployable three longeron truss beam to achieve minimum loads in the members during deployment. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the applicability of the approach, taken in this paper, to other truss configurations.

Warnaar, Dirk B.↗

An improved multiple linear regression and data analysis computer program package

NEWRAP, an improved version of a previous multiple linear regression program called RAPIER, CREDUC, and CRSPLT, allows for a complete regression analysis including cross plots of the independent and dependent variables, correlation coefficients, regression coefficients, analysis of variance tables, t-statistics and their probability levels, rejection of independent variables, plots of residuals against the independent and dependent variables, and a canonical reduction of quadratic response functions useful in optimum seeking experimentation. A major improvement over RAPIER is that all regression calculations are done in double precision arithmetic.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Analysis and testing of two-dimensional slot nozzle ejectors with variable area mixing sections

Finite difference computer techniques have been used to calculate the detailed performance of air to air two-dimensional ejectors with symmetric variable area mixing sections and coaxial coverging primary nozzles. The analysis of the primary nozzle assumed correct expansion of the flow and is suitable for subsonic and slightly supersonic velocity levels. The variation of the mixing section channel walls is assumed to be gradual so that the static pressure can be assumed uniform on planes perpendicular to the axis. A test program was run to provide two-dimensional ejector test data for verification of the computer analysis. A primary converging nozzle with a discharge geometry of 0.125 inch x 8.0 inch was supplied with 600 SCFM of air at about 35 psia and 180 F. This nozzle was combined with two mixing section geometries with throat sizes of 1.25 inch x 8.0 inch and 1.875 inch x 8.0 inch and was tested at a total of 11 operating points.

Gilbert, G. B.↗

Analysis and testing of two-dimensional slot nozzle ejectors with variable area mixing sections

Finite difference computer techniques have been used to calculate the detailed performance of air-to-air two-dimensional ejectors with symmetric variable area mixing sections and coaxial converging primary nozzles. The analysis of the primary nozzle assumed correct expansion of the flow and is suitable for subsonic and slightly supersonic velocity levels. The variation of the mixing section channel walls is assumed to be gradual so that the static pressure can be assumed uniform on planes perpendicular to the axis. A test program was run to provide two-dimensional ejector test data for verification of the computer analysis. A primary converging nozzle with a discharge geometry of 3.18 mm x 203 mm was supplied with 0.340 kg/sec of air at about 2.43 bar and 356 K. This nozzle was combined with two mixing section geometries with throat sizes of 31.8 mm x 203 mm and 47.6 mm x 203 mm and was tested at a total of 11 operating points.

Gilbert, G. B.↗

Aeroelastic analysis for helicopter rotor blades with time-variable, non-linear structural twist and multiple structural redundancy: Mathematical derivation and program user's manual

The differential equations of motion for the lateral and torsional deformations of a nonlinearly twisted rotor blade in steady flight conditions together with those additional aeroelastic features germane to composite bearingless rotors are derived. The differential equations are formulated in terms of uncoupled (zero pitch and twist) vibratory modes with exact coupling effects due to finite, time variable blade pitch and, to second order, twist. Also presented are derivations of the fully coupled inertia and aerodynamic load distributions, automatic pitch change coupling effects, structural redundancy characteristics of the composite bearingless rotor flexbeam - torque tube system in bending and torsion, and a description of the linearized equations appropriate for eigensolution analyses. Three appendixes are included presenting material appropriate to the digital computer program implementation of the analysis, program G400.

Bielawa, R. L.↗

Using Distributed Fiber-optic Strain Sensing to Estimate Generalized Modal Coordinates from Flight-test Data

Background and Motivation - Problem - Contemporary aircraft carry around structural mass so that the flutter instabilities lie well outside of the operational envelope. - Better methods of measuring the structural state could allow reduction of the extra structural weight - Modal filtering - Standard method in structural analysis - Deformations are a combination of mode shapes - Modal filtering is estimating these modal coordinates from data - Often ordinary least squares methods - Often applied to simpler test articles - Factor Analysis - Analysis method from psychology - Measurements are a combination of small number of unmeasurable variables. - Lessons from factor analysis can be adapted to improve the modal filtering methods

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

Analysis of a 7 year tropospheric ozone vertical distribution at the Observatoire de Haute Provence

A seven year (1984-90) climatology of tropospheric vertical ozone soundings, performed by electrochemical sondes at the OHP (44 deg N, 6 deg E, 700 m ASL) in Southern France, is presented. Its seasonal variation shows a broad spring/summer maximum in the troposphere. The contribution of photochemical ozone production and transport from the stratosphere to this seasonal variation are studied by a correlative analysis of ozone concentrations and meteorological variables, with emphasis on potential vorticity. This analysis shows the impact of dynamical and photochemical processes on the spatial and temporal ozone variability. In particular, a positive correlation (r = 04.0, significance greater than 99.9 percent) of ozone with potential vorticity is observed in the middle troposphere, reflecting the impact of stratosphere-troposphere exchange on the vertical ozone distribution.

Beekmann, Matthias↗

A search for RR Lyrae variables in NGC 147

An analysis of repeated deep CCD observations of a field in the Local Group dwarf elliptical galaxy NBC 147 has resulted in the detection of 34 variable stars. The periods and shapes of light curves obtained for 13 of these variables show nine of them to be RR Lyrae stars. An intensity-averaged phase-weighted-mean g magnitude of 25.15 (+ 0.17 or - 0.15) is found which indicates a distance modulus to NGC 147 of 23.85 (+ 0.22 or - 0.20), or 589 kpc.

Saha, A.↗

Long-term variability in bright hard X-ray sources: 5+ years of BATSE data

The operation of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO)/burst and transient source experiment (BATSE) continues to provide data for inclusion into a data base for the analysis of long term variability in bright, hard X-ray sources. The all-sky capability of BATSE provides up to 30 flux measurements/day for each source. The long baseline and the various rising and setting occultation flux measurements allow searches for periodic and quasi-periodic signals with periods of between several hours to hundreds of days to be conducted. The preliminary results from an analysis of the hard X-ray variability in 24 of the brightest BATSE sources are presented. Power density spectra are computed for each source and profiles are presented of the hard X-ray orbital modulations in some X-ray binaries, together with amplitude modulations and variations in outburst durations and intensities in recurrent X-ray transients.

Robinson, C. R.↗