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At least 379 records · Page 21

A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method

Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use.

Yu, Zhuoran↗

Maximum likelihood estimation of difference scaling functions for suprathreshold judgments

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been used to produce perceptual scales from binary judgments of triads and quadruples. This method relies on Thurstone’s theory of a stochastic perceptual process where the perceived difference of two stimuli is the difference in their perceived strengths. It is possible that the perception of a suprathreshold difference is overestimated when adding smaller differences, a phenomenon referred to as diminishing returns. The current approach to construct a perceptual scale using MLE does not account for this phenomenon. We present a way to model the perception of differences using MLE and Thurstone’s theory, adapted to allow the possibility of diminishing returns. This method is validated using Monte Carlo simulated responses to experimental triads and can correctly model diminishing returns, the absence of diminishing returns, and the opposite of diminishing returns both in the cases when a perceptual scale is known and when the true perceived strengths of the stimuli are unknown. Additionally, this method was applied to empirical data sets to determine its feasibility in investigations of perception. Ultimately, it was found that this analysis allows for more accurate modeling of suprathreshold difference judgments, a more complete understanding of the perceptual processes underlying comparisons, and the evaluation of Thurstone’s theory of difference judgments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SU-G-TeP1-06: Fast GPU Framework for Four-Dimensional Monte Carlo in Adaptive Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy (IMPT) for Mobile Tumors

Purpose: To demonstrate the feasibility of fast Monte Carlo (MC) treatment planning and verification using four-dimensional CT (4DCT) for adaptive IMPT for lung cancer patients. Methods: A validated GPU MC code, gPMC, has been linked to the patient database at our institution and employed to compute the dose-influence matrices (Dij) on the planning CT (pCT). The pCT is an average of the respiratory motion of the patient. The Dijs and patient structures were fed to the optimizer to calculate a treatment plan. To validate the plan against motion, a 4D dose distribution averaged over the possible starting phases is calculated using the 4DCT and a model of the time structure of the delivered spot map. The dose is accumulated using vector maps created by a GPU-accelerated deformable image registration program (DIR) from each phase of the 4DCT to the reference phase using the B-spline method. Calculation of the Dij matrices and the DIR are performed on a cluster, with each field and vector map calculated in parallel. Results: The Dij production takes ∼3.5s per beamlet for 10e6 protons, depending on the energy and the CT size. Generating a plan with 4D simulation of 1000 spots in 4 fields takes approximately 1h. To test the framework, IMPT plans for 10 lung cancer patients were generated for validation. Differences between the planned and the delivered dose of 19% in dose to some organs at risk and 1.4/21.1% in target mean dose/homogeneity with respect to the plan were observed, suggesting potential for improvement if adaptation is considered. Conclusion: A fast MC treatment planning framework has been developed that allows reliable plan design and verification for mobile targets and adaptation of treatment plans. This will significantly impact treatments for lung tumors, as 4D-MC dose calculations can now become part of planning strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Detection of DoS Attacks Using ARFIMA Modeling of GOOSE Communication in IEC 61850 Substations

Integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern smart grids (SGs) offers many advantages including the use of renewables and an effective way to protect, control and monitor the energy transmission and distribution. To reach an optimal operation of future energy systems, availability, integrity and confidentiality of data should be guaranteed. Research on the cyber-physical security of electrical substations based on IEC 61850 is still at an early stage. In the present work, we first model the network traffic data in electrical substations, then, we present a statistical Anomaly Detection (AD) method to detect Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network communication. According to interpretations on the self-similarity and the Long-Range Dependency (LRD) of the data, an Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model was shown to describe well the GOOSE communication in the substation process network. Based on this ARFIMA-model and in view of cyber-physical security, an effective model-based AD method is developed and analyzed. Two variants of the statistical AD considering statistical hypothesis testing based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) are presented to detect flooding attacks that might affect the availability of the data. Our work presents a novel AD method, with two different variants, tailored to the specific features of the GOOSE traffic in IEC 61850 substations. The statistical AD is capable of detecting anomalies at unknown change times under the realistic assumption of unknown model parameters. The performance of both variants of the AD method is validated and assessed using data collected from a simulation case study. We perform several Monte-Carlo simulations under different noise variances. The detection delay is provided for each detector and it represents the number of discrete time samples after which an anomaly is detected. In fact, our statistical AD method with both variants (CUSUM and GLRT) has around half the false positive rate and a smaller detection delay when compared with two of the closest works found in the literature. Our AD approach based on the GLRT detector has the smallest false positive rate among all considered approaches. Whereas, our AD approach based on the CUSUM test has the lowest false negative rate thus the best detection rate. Depending on the requirements as well as the costs of false alarms or missed anomalies, both variants of our statistical detection method can be used and are further analyzed using composite detection metrics.

IEC 61850 electrical substations↗

The 2016 Edition of the IRPhEP Handbook

The International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) was established to preserve integral reactor physics experimental data, including separate or special effects data for nuclear energy and technology applications. Over the past several decades, numerous experiments have been performed worldwide to support reactor operations, measurements, design, and safety. These experiments represent a large investment of infrastructure, expertise, and cost, and are valuable resources of data for present and future research. These valuable assets provide the basis for recording, development, and validation of methods. If the experimental data are lost, the high cost to repeat many of these measurements may be prohibitive. The purpose of the IRPhEP is to provide an extensively peer-reviewed set of reactor physics-related integral data that can be used by reactor designers and safety analysts to validate the analytical tools used to design next-generation reactors and establish the safety basis for operation of those reactors. Contributors from around the world collaborate in the evaluation and review of selected benchmark experiments for inclusion in the International Handbook of Evaluated Reactor Physics Benchmark Experiments (IRPhEP Handbook). Further information regarding the IRPhEP, including highlighted reactor physics benchmark evaluations, can be found in the November and December 2014 editions of Nuclear Science and Engineering. Several new evaluations have been prepared for inclusion in the September 2016 edition of the IRPhEP Handbook. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Best Practices for Nuclear Experiment Data Preservation at Idaho National Laboratory: A Guide for Researchers and Reactor Operators

Preserving experimental data is essential for supporting advancements in nuclear science and ensuring the longevity of Idaho National Laboratory's contributions to reactor technology and safety. This report provides a comprehensive guide to best practices for experimental data management and preservation, focusing on standardized data formats, redundancy in storage, metadata documentation, and alignment with international standards. By following these recommendations, experimentalists and reactor operators can enhance the accessibility, reproducibility, and utility of critical datasets for regulatory review, validation computational methods, and future research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Downscaling-Based Segmentation for Unresolved Images of Highly Heterogeneous Granular Porous Samples

Numerical simulations of pore-scale flow and transport in natural sediments require the knowledge of pore-space topology. Limited resolution of X-ray tomography is often insufficient to fully characterize pore-space structure within fine-grained regions. Single and multilevel threshold-based segmentation approaches are customarily employed to identify solid, pore and porous-solid regions by means of grey intensity thresholds. While the choice of cutoff thresholds is often arbitrary, it dramatically affects the effective properties and the dynamical response of the reconstructed porous structure. As such, we propose an algorithm of downscaling, i.e., the process of increasing image resolution, followed by segmentation, i.e., the identification of different phases, to reconstruct the unresolved pore-space from XCT images of natural geological porous media. The method, applicable to moderately unresolved, chemically homogeneous granular media, is based on a map between local pixel porosity and pore size that does not rely on the definition of arbitrary thresholds and it allows to generate a high-resolution binary image of the porous medium from poorly resolved grey-scale images. First, we validate the method on synthetic unresolved images and compare their known pore-space distribution with the extracted one. Then, we consider a synthetic porous medium and compare the pore size distribution, conductivity, and tortuosity between the original and the reconstructed structures. Finally, we apply the method to extract the pore-space distribution from unresolved XCT images of two natural sediment columns and use it (i) to parametrize a capillary-bundle model and (ii) to estimate the hydraulic conductivity by matching breakthrough behavior of passive solute transport.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Rapid Method for Quantification OF 242Pu in Urine Using Extraction Chromatography and ICP-MS

Occupational exposure to plutonium is generally monitored through analysis of urine samples. Typically, plutonium is separated from the sample and other actinides, and the concentration is determined using alpha spectroscopy. Current methods for separations and analysis are lengthy and require long count times. A new method for monitoring occupational exposure levels of plutonium has been developed, which requires fewer steps and overall less time than the alpha spectroscopy method. In this method, the urine is acidified, and a 239 Pu internal standard is added. The urine is digested in a microwave oven, and plutonium is separated using an Eichrom TRU Resin column. The plutonium is eluted, and the eluant is injected directly into the Inductively Coupled Plasma–Mass Spectrometer (ICP-MS). Compared to a direct “dilute and shoot” method, a 30-fold improvement in sensitivity is achieved. This method was validated by analyzing several batches of spiked samples. Based on these analyses, a combined standard uncertainty plot, which relates uncertainty to concentration, was produced. As a result, the MDA 95 was calculated to be 7.0 × 10 –7 μg L –1 , and the Lc95 was calculated to be 3.5 × 10 –7 μg L –1 for this method.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗

Identifying a regional aerosol baseline in the eastern North Atlantic using collocated measurements and a mathematical algorithm to mask high-submicron-number-concentration aerosol events

Abstract. High-time-resolution measurements of in situ aerosol and cloud properties provide the ability to study regional atmospheric processes that occur on timescales of minutes to hours. However, one limitation to this approach is that continuous measurements often include periods when the data collected are not representative of the regional aerosol. Even at remote locations, submicron aerosols are pervasive in the ambient atmosphere with many sources. Therefore, periods dominated by local aerosol should be identified before conducting subsequent analyses to understand aerosol regional processes and aerosol–cloud interactions. Here, we present a novel method to validate the identification of regional baseline aerosol data by applying a mathematical algorithm to the data collected at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility in the eastern North Atlantic (ENA). The ENA central facility (C1) includes an aerosol observing system (AOS) for the measurement of aerosol physical, optical, and chemical properties at time resolutions from seconds to minutes. A second temporary supplementary facility (S1), located ∼0.75 km from C1, was deployed for ∼1 year during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments (ACE-ENA) campaign in 2017. First, we investigate the local aerosol at both locations. We associate periods of high submicron number concentration (Ntot) in the fine-mode condensation particle counter (CPC) and size distributions from the Ultra-High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer (UHSAS) as a function of wind direction using a meteorology sensor with local sources. Elevated concentrations of Aitken-mode (< 100 nm diameter) particles were observed in correspondence with the wind directions associated with airport operations. At ENA, the Graciosa Airport and its associated activities were found to be the main sources of high-concentration aerosol events at ENA, causing peaks in 1 min Ntot that exceeded 8000 and 10 000 cm−3 at C1, in summer and winter, respectively, and 5000 cm−3 at S1 in summer. Periods with high Ntot not associated with these wind directions were also observed. As a result, the diverse local sources at ENA yielded a poor relationship between Ntot measurements collected at C1 and S1 (R2=0.03 with a slope =0.05±0.001). As a first approach to mask these events, the time periods when the wind direction was associated with the airport operations (west to northwest and southeast to south at C1 and east to south at S1) were applied. The meteorological masks removed 38.9 % of the data at C1 and 43.4 % at S1, and they did not significantly improve the relationship between the two sites (R2=0.18 with a slope =0.06±0.001). Due to the complexity of high-Ntot events observed at ENA, we develop and validate a mathematical ENA Aerosol Mask (ENA-AM) to identify high-Ntot events using 1 min resolution data from the AOS CPC at C1 and S1. After its parameterization and application, ENA-AM generated a high correlation between Ntot in the summer at C1 and S1 (R2=0.87 with a slope =0.84±0.001). We identified the regional baseline at ENA to be 428±228 cm−3 in the summer and 346±223 cm−3 in the winter. Lastly, we compared masked measurements from the AOS with the ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) during flights over C1 in the summer to understand submicron aerosol vertical mixing over C1. The high correlation (R2=0.71 with a slope of 1.04±0.01) observed between C1 and the AAF Ntot collected within an area of 10 km surrounding ENA and at altitudes < 500 m indicated that the submicron aerosol at ENA was well mixed within the first 500 m of the marine boundary layer during the month of July during ACE-ENA. Our novel method for determining a regional aerosol baseline at ENA can be applied to other time periods and at other locations with validation by a secondary site or additional collocated measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Learning-Based Load Control to Support Resilient Networked Microgrid Operations

Microgrids have proven to be an effective option for increasing the resiliency of critical end-use loads during extreme events. Building on past operational experiences, some microgrid operators are examining the potential to network microgrids to further improve resiliency. However, the frequency deviations experienced on isolated microgrids during transient events, such as switching operations, step increases in load, and loss of generation, are significantly larger than those typically seen on bulk transmission systems. The larger frequency deviations can cause a loss of inverter-connected assets, resulting in a loss of power to critical end-use loads. This paper presents a method of mitigating the impact of transient events by engaging end-use loads using Grid-Friendly Appliance TM (GFA) controllers. An online, i.e., real-time, device-level algorithm is presented, which adjusts individual GFA controller frequency set-points based on the operational characteristics of each end-use load, and on the changing grid dynamic characteristics. The presented method improves the dynamic stability of the networked microgrid operations while minimizing the interruptions to end-use loads. The presented work is validated with dynamic simulations using a modified version of the IEEE 123-node test system with three microgrids, using the GridLAB-D TM simulation environment.

Radhakrishnan, Nikitha↗

Condensed Phase Water Molecular Multipole Moments from Deep Neural Network Models Trained on Ab Initio Simulation Data

Ionic solvation phenomena in liquids involve intense interactions in the inner solvation shell. For interactions beyond the first shell, the ion–solvent interaction energies result from the sum of many smaller-magnitude contributions that can still include polarization effects. Deep neural network (DNN) methods have recently found wide application in developing efficient molecular models that maintain near-quantum accuracy. In this work, we extend the DeePMD-kit code to produce accurate molecular multipole moments in the bulk and near interfaces. The new method is validated by comparing the DNN moments with those generated by ab initio simulations. The moments are used to compute the electrostatic potential at the center of a molecular-sized hydrophobic cavity in water. The results show that the fields produced by the DNN models are in quantitative agreement with the AIMD-derived values. These efficient methods will open the door to more accurate solvation models for large solutes such as proteins.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling the Nucleation of Weak Electrolytes via Hybrid GCMC/MD Simulation

We have developed a hybrid grand canonical Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics (GCMC/MD) method for simulating the nucleation of weak electrolytes in an explicit solvent. In contrast to brute-force MD simulation, the approach is capable of efficiently simulating the nucleation of dilute solutions while including the atomistic influence of the surrounding solvent and provides access to the full nucleation free energy surface and associated nucleation free energy barrier. After validating the method against a simple model system, we applied the approach to the nucleation of a low-solubility rock-salt structure in liquid water. We find that the calculated nucleation barriers, in conjunction with analytic rate theories, yield predicted nucleation rates that are in excellent agreement with brute-force MD simulations of the supersaturated solution. We anticipate possible applications of this approach to a wide variety of related weak electrolytes, including CaCO 3 , zeolites, and metal–organic frameworks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pairing Directional Solar Inputs From Ray Tracing to Solar Receiver/Reactor Heat Transfer Models on Unstructured Meshes: Development and Case Studies

A novel method for pairing surface irradiation and volumetric absorption from Monte Carlo ray tracing to computational heat transfer models is presented. The method is well-suited to directionally and spatially complex concentrated radiative inputs (e.g., solar receivers and reactors). The method employs a generalized algorithm for directly mapping absorbed rays from a Monte Carlo ray tracing model to boundary or volumetric source terms in the computational mesh. The algorithm is compatible with unstructured, two and three-dimensional meshes with varying element shapes. Four case studies were performed on a directly irradiated, windowed solar thermochemical reactor model to validate the method. The method was shown to conserve energy and preserve spatial variation when mapping rays from a Monte Carlo ray tracing model to a computational heat transfer model in ansys fluent.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Rapidly Measuring Loop Footprints

Knowing a loop’s footprint — the unique data items it accesses — enables important locality and capacity analysis. Unfortunately, current methods for computing footprint cause integer factors of slowdown and are therefore difficult to use with realistic inputs. Current methods are slow because they are based on software tracing of load instructions and data addresses. We present an approach that combines lightweight measurements and static binary analysis. We use static analysis to reason about each load’s expected reuse. We then calculate the footprint for each loop using inference rules informed by measurements from common performance counters. We validate our method on benchmarks that vary access patterns (strided vs. unpredictable), reuse (varying and repeated accesses per element), and sparsity (all words in a cache line vs. some). For strided patterns, errors are within 1%; for unpredictable ones, errors are 5–10%. Our overheads are under 10%. A tool based on software tracing has an error of less than 1%, but either introduces at least 130× overhead or hangs.

Kilic, Ozgur O.↗

Multi-Commodity Traffic Signal Control and Routing With Connected Vehicles

We report a real-time traffic management policy that integrates traffic signal control and multi-commodity routing of connected vehicles in networks with multiple destinations is developed. The proposed policy is based on a multi-commodity formulation of the store-and-forward model and assumes all vehicles are able to exchange information with the infrastructure. Vehicles share information about their current location and final destination. Based on this information, the strategy determines both optimized signal timings at every intersection and vehicle-specific routing information at every link of the network. The control actions, i.e., signal times and routing information, are updated at every cycle and delivered by a finite horizon optimal control problem cast into a rolling horizon framework. The underlying optimization problem is convex, and thus the method is suitable for real-time operation in large networks. The method is validated via a micro-simulation study in networks with up to twenty intersections and, in all simulations, outperforms a real-time traffic-responsive signal control strategy that is based on a single-commodity store-and-forward model. The scalable computation effort for increasing network sizes and prediction horizon confirms the computational efficiency of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optical tweezer measurements of asymptotic nonlinearities in complex fluids

This article presents micro-medium-amplitude oscillatory shear (μMAOS), a method to measure the frequency-dependent micromechanical properties of soft materials in the asymptotically nonlinear regime using optical tweezers. For this work, we have developed a theoretical framework to extract these nonlinear mechanical properties of the material from experimental measurements and also proposed a physical interpretation of the third-order nonlinearities measured in single-tone oscillatory tests. We validate the method using a well-characterized surfactant solution of wormlike micelles, and subsequently employ this technique to demonstrate that the cytoplasm of a living cell undergoes strain softening and shear thinning when locally subjected to weakly nonlinear oscillatory deformations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗