SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Reliability Comparison of Classical and Stochastic Thickness Margin Approaches to Address Material Property Uncertainties for the Orion Heat Shield

The Orion Thermal Protection System (TPS) margin process uses a root-sum-square approach with branches addressing trajectory, aerothermodynamics, and material response uncertainties in ablator thickness design. The material response branch applies a bondline temperature reduction between the Avcoat ablator and EA9394 adhesive by 60 C (108 F) from its peak allowed value of 260 C (500 F). This process is known as the Bond Line Temperature Material Margin (BTMM) and is intended to cover material property and performance uncertainties. The value of 60 C (108 F) is a constant, applied at any spacecraft body location and for any trajectory. By varying only material properties in a random (monte carlo) manner, the perl-based script mcCHAR is used to investigate the confidence interval provided by the BTMM. In particular, this study will look at various locations on the Orion heat shield forebody for a guided and an abort (ballistic) trajectory.

margins↗

DOE OSTI2023

Selecting representative geological realizations to model subsurface CO 2 storage under uncertainty

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the quickest and most effective solutions for reducing carbon emissions. The majority of subsurface storage occurs in saline aquifers, for which geological information is lacking which in turn results in geological uncertainty. To evaluate uncertainty in CO 2 injection projections, the use of multiple geological realizations (GRs) has been practiced very commonly. In this approach, hundreds or thousands of high-resolution GRs is used that quickly becomes computationally expensive. This issue can be addressed with representative geological realizations (RGRs) that preserve the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. Here, in this study, we propose the use of unsupervised machine learning (UML) frameworks, including dissimilarity measurement, dimensionality reduction, clustering and sampling algorithms ta select a predetermined number of RGRs. We compare the simulation outputs of the RGR sets and the ensemble using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to select the best UML. The UML frameworks and their associated selection processes are evaluated using a saline aquifer with a single CO 2 injection well and 200 GRs with varying uncertain petrophysical characteristics. The best UML framework is selected to use only 5% of the GRs while maintaining the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. In addition, the best UML framework is tested using a saline aquifer with three CO 2 injection wells and varied GRs. The results show that our proposed UML framework can be used to choose RGRs, capturing the whole uncertainty domain. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the computational cost associated with scenario testing, decision-making, and development planning for CO 2 storage sites under geological uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

HiFiPDV2 v. 2

SAND2024-01061O The HiFiPDV-2 software is similar to other photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) analysis codes in that it converts signals from intensity-time space to frequency-time space using a short-time Fourier transform (STFT). It then analyzes peaks of the resulting power spectral density information to extract the velocity-time history. The unique aspects of HiFiPDV and HiFiPDV-2 are that this reduction process is repeated for an array of reasonable STFT input variables. The resulting population distribution of output velocity-time histories is evaluated to determine the most likely velocity history and its associated uncertainty. This uncertainty is defined as the systematic uncertainty of the PDV signal as it is a function of input values to the reduction process. The HiFiPDV-2 program brings new functionality and efficiency to these calculations—most notably significant reductions in memory usage and calculation times, the ability to evaluate frequency-shifted signals, and the ability to filter out baseline signals. Developers recommend that users have at least 2 GB of RAM per CPU core in their system. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Voorhees, Travis↗

DOE OSTI2021

ACCRUE—An Integral Index for Measuring Experimental Relevance in Support of Neutronic Model Validation

A key challenge for the introduction of any design changes, e.g., advanced fuel concepts, first-of-a-kind nuclear reactor designs, etc., is the cost of the associated experiments, which are required by law to validate the use of computer models for the various stages, starting from conceptual design, to deployment, licensing, operation, and safety. To achieve that, a criterion is needed to decide on whether a given experiment, past or planned, is relevant to the application of interest. This allows the analyst to select the best experiments for the given application leading to the highest measures of confidence for the computer model predictions. The state-of-the-art methods rely on the concept of similarity or representativity, which is a linear Gaussian-based inner-product metric measuring the angle—as weighted by a prior model parameters covariance matrix—between two gradients, one representing the application and the other a single validation experiment. This manuscript emphasizes the concept of experimental relevance which extends the basic similarity index to account for the value accrued from past experiments and the associated experimental uncertainties, both currently missing from the extant similarity methods. Accounting for multiple experiments is key to the overall experimental cost reduction by prescreening for redundant information from multiple equally-relevant experiments as measured by the basic similarity index. Accounting for experimental uncertainties is also important as it allows one to select between two different experimental setups, thus providing for a quantitative basis for sensor selection and optimization. The proposed metric is denoted by ACCRUE, short for Accumulative Correlation Coefficient for Relevance of Uncertainties in Experimental validation. Using a number of criticality experiments for highly enriched fast metal systems and low enriched thermal compound systems with accident tolerant fuel concept, the manuscript will compare the performance of the ACCRUE and basic similarity indices for prioritizing the relevance of a group of experiments to the given application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Reliability Comparison of Classical and Stochastic Thickness Margin Approaches to Address Material Property Uncertainties for the Orion Heat Shield

The Orion Thermal Protection System (TPS) margin process uses a root-sum-square approach with branches addressing trajectory, aerothermodynamics, and material response uncertainties in ablator thickness design. The material response branch applies a bond line temperature reduction between the Avcoat ablator and EA9394 adhesive by 60 C (108 F) from its peak allowed value of 260 C (500 F). This process is known as the Bond Line Temperature Material Margin (BTMM) and is intended to cover material property and performance uncertainties. The value of 60 C (108 F) is a constant, applied at any spacecraft body location and for any trajectory. By varying only material properties in a random (monte carlo) manner, the perl-based script mcCHAR is used to investigate the confidence interval provided by the BTMM. In particular, this study will look at various locations on the Orion heat shield forebody for a guided and an abort (ballistic) trajectory.

FIAT↗

NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Climbing Flights

Aircraft climb trajectories are difficult to predict, and large errors in these predictions reduce the potential operational benefits of some advanced features for NextGen. The algorithm described in this paper improves climb trajectory prediction accuracy by adjusting trajectory predictions based on observed track data. It utilizes rate-of-climb and airspeed measurements derived from position data to dynamically adjust the aircraft weight modeled for trajectory predictions. In simulations with weight uncertainty, the algorithm is able to adapt to within 3 percent of the actual gross weight within two minutes of the initial adaptation. The root-mean-square of altitude errors for five-minute predictions was reduced by 73 percent. Conflict detection performance also improved, with a 15 percent reduction in missed alerts and a 10 percent reduction in false alerts. In a simulation with climb speed capture intent and weight uncertainty, the algorithm improved climb trajectory prediction accuracy by up to 30 percent and conflict detection performance, reducing missed and false alerts by up to 10 percent.

Seperation Assurance↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bringing solar to agriculture: An interdisciplinary design and analysis of a Concord grape agrivoltaic system

Agrivoltaics presents an opportunity to integrate solar photovoltaics (PV) with agricultural production, but crop-specific challenges and operational constraints remain underexplored. This study develops and evaluates a Concord grape agrivoltaic system in the Lake Erie American Viticulture Area, where vineyards face economic pressures and land use conflicts with solar development. Starting with vertical, tracking, and overhead PV systems, we model photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) reduction in grapevines and power generation losses from shading using the Agrivoltaic Radiation Tool (ART). Based on these results, which indicate 0.47 % annual grapevine PPFD loss for vertical designs, 1.6 % for tracking, and up to 25 % for the overhead systems, the vertical and tracking designs are selected for further computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to evaluate airflow interactions. CFD results show that vertical panels do not significantly impact airflow through the grapevine canopy, and that tracking systems in horizontal position may enhance airflow compared to a vine-only scenario. Considering operational constraints for tracking systems, the vertical design is selected for an economic evaluation to reveal key financial outcomes for solar developers (14-year payback period) and growers ($408 reduction in financial losses per acre annually). A sensitivity analysis quantifies uncertainty in power generation (±8.8 %) and PPFD (±5.0 %), ensuring model robustness across different vineyard conditions. Furthermore, these findings provide quantitative evidence for the feasibility of Concord grape agrivoltaics, demonstrating a synergistic opportunity for dual-use solar while preserving cultural heritage in grape-growing regions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Framework for Maintenance Scheduling Based on Dynamic Preventive Intervals and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Data-based prognostic methods exploit sensor data to forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial settings to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions. However, implementing sensors may not be cost-effective or practical for all components. Traditional preventive approaches are not based on sensor data; however, they schedule maintenance at equally spaced intervals, which is not a cost-effective approach since the distribution of the time between failures changes with the degradation state of other parts or changes in working conditions. This study introduces a novel framework comprising two maintenance scheduling strategies. In the absence of sensor data, we propose a novel dynamic preventive policy that adjusts intervention intervals based on the most recent failure data. When sensor data are available, a method for RUL prediction, designated k-LSTM-GFT, is enhanced to dynamically account for RUL prediction uncertainty. The results demonstrate that dynamic preventive maintenance can yield cost reductions of up to 51.8% compared to conventional approaches. The predictive approach optimizes the exploitation of RUL, achieving costs that are only 3–5% higher than the minimum cost achievable while ensuring the safety of critical systems since all of the failures are avoided.

Nunes, Pedro (ORCID:0000000180012172)↗

NASA NTRS1973

Causes and control of solar electric propulsion interactive effects

Contaminant effects and questions of thrust system operation status are discussed together with the sources of contaminant effects and the areas of contaminant impact. Contaminant reduction techniques are considered, giving attention to magnetic contamination, dc electric contamination, ac electric contamination, conducted EM interference, radio frequency interference, and material transport and deposition. Design goals for the reduction of contaminant levels are examined along with some areas of uncertainty.

Sellen, J. M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Geoid height versus age for symmetric spreading ridges

Geoid height-age relations have been extracted from Geos 3 altimeter data for large areas in the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, southeast Indian, and southeast Pacific oceans. Except for the southeast Pacific area, geoid height decreases approximately linearly with the age of the ocean floor for ages less than about 80 m.y. in agreement with the prediction of an isostatically compensated thermal boundary layer model (Haxby and Turcotte, 1978). The geoid-age data for 0 to 80 m.y. are consistent with constant slopes of -0.094 + or - -0.131 + or - 0.041, and -0.149 + or - 0.028 m/m.y. for the South Atlantic, southeast Indian, and North Atlantic regions, respectively. For ages greater than 80 m.y. the geoid-age relation for the North Atlantic is nearly flat, indicating a reduction in the rate of boundary layer thickening with age. The uncertainties in the geoid slope-age estimates are positively correlated with spreading velocity.

Sandwell, D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Solar Dynamics Observatory On-Orbit Jitter Testing, Analysis, and Mitigation Plans

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was designed to understand the Sun and the Sun s influence on Earth. SDO was launched on February 11, 2010 carrying three scientific instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). Both AIA and HMI are sensitive to high frequency pointing perturbations and have sub-arcsecond level line-of-sight (LOS) jitter requirements. Extensive modeling and analysis efforts were directed in estimating the amount of jitter disturbing the science instruments. To verify the disturbance models and to validate the jitter performance prior to launch, many jitter-critical components and subassemblies were tested either by the mechanism vendors or at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Although detailed analysis and assembly level tests were performed to obtain good jitter predictions, there were still several sources of uncertainties in the system. The structural finite element model did not have all the modes correlated to test data at high frequencies (greater than 50 Hz). The performance of the instrument stabilization system was not known exactly but was expected to be close to the analytical model. A true disturbance-to-LOS observatory level test was not available due to the tight schedule of the flight spacecraft, the cost in time and manpower, difficulties in creating gravity negation systems, and risks of damaging flight hardware. To protect the observatory jitter performance against model uncertainties, the SDO jitter team devised several on-orbit jitter reduction plans in addition to reserve margins on analysis results. Since some of these plans severely restricted the capabilities of several spacecraft components (e.g. wheels and High Gain Antennas), the SDO team performed on-orbit jitter tests to determine which jitter reduction plans, if any, were necessary to satisfy science LOS jitter requirements. The SDO on-orbit jitter tests were designed to satisfy the following four objectives: 1. Determine the acceptable reaction wheel operational speed range during Science Mode. 2. Determine HGA algorithm jitter parameters (number of stagger steps and enable/disable no-steprequests). 3. Determine acceptable EVE instrument filter wheels spin rates. 4. Determine if AIA instrument filter wheels excite the first AIA telescope structural mode. This paper provides detailed information on the SDO wheel jitter test plan, shows on-orbit jitter measurements and how ground predictions compare to those measurements, and describes the final jitter mitigation plan executed on SDO.

Liu, Kuo-Chia (Alice)↗

NASA NTRS2010

Calibration of the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

Thome, Kurtis↗

NASA NTRS2011

Preliminary Error Budget for the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) plans to observe climate change trends over decadal time scales to determine the accuracy of climate projections. The project relies on spaceborne earth observations of SI-traceable variables sensitive to key decadal change parameters. The mission includes a reflected solar instrument retrieving at-sensor reflectance over the 320 to 2300 nm spectral range with 500-m spatial resolution and 100-km swath. Reflectance is obtained from the ratio of measurements of the earth s surface to those while viewing the sun relying on a calibration approach that retrieves reflectance with uncertainties less than 0.3%. The calibration is predicated on heritage hardware, reduction of sensor complexity, adherence to detector-based calibration standards, and an ability to simulate in the laboratory on-orbit sources in both size and brightness to provide the basis of a transfer to orbit of the laboratory calibration including a link to absolute solar irradiance measurements. The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe high-accuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those in the IPCC Report. A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO Project will implement a spaceborne earth observation mission designed to provide rigorous SI traceable observations (i.e., radiance, reflectance, and refractivity) that are sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables, including: 1) Surface temperature and atmospheric temperature profile 2) Atmospheric water vapor profile 3) Far infrared water vapor greenhouse 4) Aerosol properties and anthropogenic aerosol direct radiative forcing 5) Total and spectral solar irradiance 6) Broadband reflected and emitted radiative fluxes 7) Cloud properties 8) Surface albedo There are two methods the CLARREO mission will rely on to achieve these critical decadal change benchmarks: direct and reference inter-calibration. A quantitative analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods has led to the recommended CLARREO mission approach. The project consists of two satellites launched into 90-degree, precessing orbits separated by 90 degrees. The instrument suite receiver on each spacecraft includes one emitted infrared spectrometer, two reflected solar spectrometers: dividing the spectrum from ultraviolet through near infrared, and one global navigation receiver for radio occultation. The measurements will be acquired for a period of three years minimum, with a five-year lifetime goal, enabling follow-on missions to extend the climate record over the decades needed to understand climate change. The current work concentrates on the reflected solar instrument giving an overview of its design and calibration approach. The calibration description includes the approach to achieving an SI-traceable system on orbit. The calibration overview is followed by a preliminary error budget based on techniques currently in place at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Thome, Kurtis↗

NASA NTRS2012

Usage of NASA's Near Real-Time Solar and Meteorological Data for Monitoring Building Energy Systems Using RETScreen International's Performance Analysis Module

This paper describes building energy system production and usage monitoring using examples from the new RETScreen Performance Analysis Module, called RETScreen Plus. The module uses daily meteorological (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind and solar, etc.) over a period of time to derive a building system function that is used to monitor building performance. The new module can also be used to target building systems with enhanced technologies. If daily ambient meteorological and solar information are not available, these are obtained over the internet from NASA's near-term data products that provide global meteorological and solar information within 3-6 days of real-time. The accuracy of the NASA data are shown to be excellent for this purpose enabling RETScreen Plus to easily detect changes in the system function and efficiency. This is shown by several examples, one of which is a new building at the NASA Langley Research Center that uses solar panels to provide electrical energy for building energy and excess energy for other uses. The system shows steady performance within the uncertainties of the input data. The other example involves assessing the reduction in energy usage by an apartment building in Sweden before and after an energy efficiency upgrade. In this case, savings up to 16% are shown.

Paul W Stackhouse, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Integration of Departure and Arrivals in Terminal Airspace

Coordination of operations with spatially and temporally shared resources such as route segments, fixes, and runways improves the efficiency of terminal airspace management. Problems in this category include scheduling and routing, thus they are normally difficult to solve compared with pure scheduling problems. In order to reduce the computational time, a fast time algorithm formulation using a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA) was introduced in this work and applied to a test case based on existing literature. The experiment showed that new method can solve the whole problem in fast time instead of solving sub-problems sequentially with a window technique. The results showed a 60% or 406 second delay reduction was achieved by sharing departure fixes (more details on the comparison with MILP results will be presented in the final paper). Furthermore, the NSGA algorithm was applied to a problem in LAX terminal airspace, where interactions between 28% of LAX arrivals and 10% of LAX departures are resolved by spatial segregation, which may introduce unnecessary delays. In this work, spatial segregation, temporal segregation, and hybrid segregation were formulated using the new algorithm. Results showed that spatial and temporal segregation approaches achieved similar delay. Hybrid segregation introduced much less delay than the other two approaches. For a total of 9 interacting departures and arrivals, delay reduction varied from 4 minutes to 6.4 minutes corresponding flight time uncertainty from 0 to 60 seconds. Considering the amount of flights that could be affected, total annual savings with hybrid segregation would be significant.

high density terminal↗

NASA NTRS2017

Multifidelity, Multidisciplinary Design Under Uncertainty with Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos

The primary objective of this work is to develop an approach for multifidelity uncertainty quantification and to lay the framework for future design under uncertainty efforts. In this study, multifidelity is used to describe both the fidelity of the modeling of the physical systems, as well as the difference in the uncertainty in each of the models. For computational efficiency, a multifidelity surrogate modeling approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos using the point-collocation technique is developed for the treatment of both multifidelity modeling and multifidelity uncertainty modeling. Two stochastic model problems are used to demonstrate the developed methodologies: a transonic airfoil model and multidisciplinary aircraft analysis model. The results of both showed the multifidelity modeling approach was able to predict the output uncertainty predicted by the high-fidelity model as a significant reduction in computational cost.

West, Thomas K., IV↗

NASA NTRS2016

Hybrid Propulsion In-Situ Resource Utilization Test Facility Results for Performance Characterization

Hybrid propulsion presents a promising alternative to conventional systems for in-space propulsion applications using In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP). A hybrid propulsion test facility has been built at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with the capability of evaluating ISPP oxidizers (gaseous mixtures of O2 and CO2) and modifying fuel type and chamber geometry. This work is the result of a continuing e ort at JPL to characterize the burn characteristics and performance of different propellant combinations and motor configurations in order to re ne and support preliminary designs. Twelve tests using gaseous oxygen and two paraffin based fuels (Black Paraffin and SP1X) from the 2015 campaign are presented. Different reduction techniques are compared in an e ort to determine the uncertainty associated with deriving a regression rate law and evaluating c* efficiency with the collected data.Hybrid motors are mechanically and chemically simple propulsion systems that have the potential forlong-term storability with low gross mass. The oxidizer (such as gaseous O2) can be produced in-situ,signicantly reducing the landed mass. The solid, inert fuel is stored in the combustion chamber in its most dense state, further reducing the total structural mass and volume. Considerable eorts have been focusedon ISPP for Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) and human exploration of Mars.At optimum oxidizer to fuel ratio (O/F), about 70% of the total propellant mass could be produced in-situ.Paran based fuels exhibit a fast regression rate behavior due to the formation of a thin liquid layer on thefuel surface.1 A high burn rate is necessary in order to reach a medium to high thrust range. In order toachieve an O/F ratio close to optimum performance (between 2.1 and 2.7 for the O2/Paran combination),the fuel mass ow needs to be suciently large compared to the oxidizer ow. The slow regression rateof classical hybrid rocket fuels leads to long fuel grain designs or complicated multi-port structures. Singleport, high regression rate fuels have the potential to reduce residual propellant mass and have a grainlength to diameter ratio (L/D) more favorable for packaging. However, hybrid motors remain at a fairly lowTechnology Readiness Level (TRL), and solutions to accurately measure and increase performance are stilllacking, especially for small-scale motors that are constrained to tight packaging.A total of 12 hotres were performed and analyzed in this campaign. All of these tests were conductedat pressures above the critical pressure of paran wax, approximately 6.7 bar (97 psi).2 Three dierentmotor congurations were explored while conserving a single cylindrical port fuel grain. Additionally, sincethrottling is a crucial advantage of hybrid rocket propulsion systems, low oxidizer mass ows (60 - 100 g/s)and uxes (5 - 30 g/cm2/s) were investigated to determine the performance impact in this regime.

Mechentel, F. S.↗