Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “trending”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Short-lived noble gas effluent trends from a research reactor

An understanding of anthropogenic sources of radioactive noble gases in the atmosphere is needed to enhance the discrimination ability of the International Monitoring System's sensors. These sources include commercial and research nuclear reactors and medical isotope production facilities. While abiding by local environmental ordinances these facilities all emit noble gas radioisotopes through normal operation. Here, this research presents measurements and analysis of noble gas isotopes ( 41 Ar, 135 Xe, 135m Xe, 137 Xe, 138 Xe, 87 Kr, 88 Kr, and 89 Kr) made directly at the stack of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The Xe and Kr noble gases are concurrently observed with 41 Ar, a neutron activation product, when the reactor is operational. The magnitude of the Xe and Kr noble gases released is not constant over the HFIR cycle, but they temporally match the 41 Ar trend. An isotope activity ratio analysis of these shorter lived isotopes combined with the observation of the cycle's temporal trend helps understand the noble gas production mechanism at the HFIR. Isotopes with short half-lives are not useful for long-range environmental monitoring. However, these measurements could potentially be combined with atmospheric modeling to predict the background source term of the longer-lived Xe ratios at a monitoring station.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A phenology- and trend-based approach for accurate mapping of sea-level driven coastal forest retreat

The rapid replacement of upland forest by encroaching marshland is a striking manifestation of global sea-level rise (SLR). Timely and high-resolution information on the location and extent of transition forest (the ecotone between upland forest and marsh where tree mortality due to seawater intrusion begins) is fundamental to understanding the processes and patterns of SLR-driven landscape reorganization. Despite its significance, accurate characterization of salt-impacted transition forest remains challenging due to the complexity of coastal environments, scarcity of ground-truth data, and the lack of effective mapping algorithms. Here we use the full archive of Landsat images between 1984 and 2021 to investigate the spectral, temporal, and phenological characteristics of transition forest, and develop a robust framework for monitoring coastal vegetation shifts in the mid-Atlantic U.S., a global SLR hotspot. Here, we found that transition forest exhibits strong negative NDVI trends and a deviation of land surface phenology from marsh and upland forest that distinguishes itself from surrounding vegetation. By integrating temporal trends and land surface phenology, our results demonstrate superior discrimination between marsh and coastal forests to existing map products (e.g. NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program, National Land Cover Database) that allows a reliable identification of the coastal treeline. We applied the approach to map regional land cover in 1985, 2000 and 2020 (overall classification accuracy >92%) and found that the area of coastal forest decreased by 22.0% from 1985 to 2020, the majority of which transitioned to marshland (92.3%, 5.3 × 10 3 ha). Based upon fine-scale patterns of coastal transgression, we created a practical workflow for spatially explicit quantification of forest retreat rates. Concurrent with rising sea level, coastal forests migrated upslope from 0.63 (± 0.27) m above sea level in 1985 to 0.78 (± 0.32) m above sea level in 2020, and horizontal forest retreat rates accelerated from 3.1 (range of 0–36) m yr -1 during 1985–2000 to 4.7 (0–55) m yr -1 during 2001–2020. As SLR continues to accelerate, our study may serve as a scalable solution for consistent tracking of coastal landscape evolution that is urgently needed for sustainable forest and wetland management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Periodic Trends within Actinyl(VI) Nitrates and Their Structures, Vibrational Spectra, and Electronic Properties

In this work, a series of actinyl(VI) nitrate salts of the form MAnO 2 (NO 3 ) 3 , where M = NH 4 + K + , Rb + , Cs + , and Me 4 N + and AnO 2 2+ = U, Np, Pu, and AnO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 (H 2 O) 2 ·H 2 O, and the uranyl tetranitrates M 2 UO 2 (NO 3 ) 4 have been synthesized from aqueous solution and their structures determined using single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Together, these complexes represent an isostructural series of actinide complexes among the salts crystallized with the same charge-compensating cation and have been studied using vibrational spectroscopy including Raman and Fourier-transform infrared. Periodic trends in both the structural properties of these complexes and their vibrational spectra are presented and discussed, in particular the invariant nature of the O≡An≡O asymmetric stretching frequencies observed across the actinyl series. Electronic structure calculations were performed at a variety of levels of theory to aid in the interpretation of the vibrational data and to correlate trends in the data with the underlying electronic properties of these molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unraveling Electronic Trends in O* and OH* Surface Adsorption in the MO 2 Transition-Metal Oxide Series

Understanding the bond strength of O* and OH* intermediates to metal-oxide surfaces is key to predicting the catalytic activity in oxygen-based electrochemistry. Here, we uncover highly non-linear trends in O* and OH* adsorption energies across the 3d, 4d, and 5d series of MO 2 transition-metal (TM) oxide surfaces computed within Hubbard- U corrected density functional theory (DFT + U ). Investigating the electronic structure with crystal orbital Hamiltonian populations (COHP) of the relevant metal–oxygen bonds reveals that the spin-dependent coupling strength between metal-d and oxygen-2p atomic orbitals together with the extent of filling of bonding and anti-bonding orbitals are the primary contributors to the adsorption energy. Importantly, we show that the integrated COHP obtained purely from bulk calculations is a highly accurate descriptor for surface adsorption energetics that captures trends across the group 5–12 TM oxide series within 0.19–0.36 eV. Our results suggest a pathway to prediction of adsorption energies for an arbitrary metal–ligand catalyst system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Siting of Metals in Heterometallic Nd–Yb Metal–Organic Frameworks and Molecular Crystals

Several studies suggest that metal ordering within metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) is important for understanding how MOFs behave in relevant applications; however, these siting trends can be difficult to determine experimentally. To garner insight into the energetic driving forces that may lead to nonrandom ordering within heterometallic MOFs, we employ density functional theory (DFT) calculations on several bimetallic metal–organic crystals composed of Nd and Yb metal atoms. We also investigate the metal siting trends for a newly synthesized MOF. Our DFT-based energy of mixing results suggest that Nd will likely occupy sites with greater access to electronegative atoms and that local homometallic domains within a mixed-metal Nd–Yb system are favored. We also explore the use of less computationally extensive methods such as classical force fields and cluster expansion models to understand their feasibility for large system sizes. Here, this study highlights the impact of metal ordering on the energetic stability of heterometallic MOFs and crystal structures.

energy of mixing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temperature Trends in the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau Constrained by Ice Core Water Isotopes Over the Past 7,000 Years

Abstract The reasons for the Holocene temperature conundrum, known as the inconsistency between the reconstructed cooling and the inferred warming simulations during the Holocene, remain unclear. Temperature reconstructions from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide important insights for understanding the Holocene temperature conundrum due to enhanced sensitivity to climate at high altitudes. Given the significant positive correlation between air temperature and δ 18 O in precipitation over the northern TP, the stable isotopic records of ice cores recovered from this area are widely used for paleotemperature reconstruction. Here we present a new high‐resolution δ 18 O record from the Chongce ice cores to bedrock, dated back to 7 ka BP by the accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14 C dating technique. Our reconstructed temperature record shows a long‐term warming trend until ~2 ka BP, followed by an abrupt change to a relatively cool period until the start of the industrial‐era warming. This record challenges the widely recognized Holocene reconstruction from the neighboring Guliya ice core. It is also different from many previous temperature reconstructions, most of which have summer biases and show a long‐term cooling trend over the past two millennia. In addition, our record shows that temperatures during the recent decades are almost the highest during the past 7 ka BP, highlighting the unusual warming forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

Pang, Hongxi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the Cold Season Arctic Surface Warming Trend in Recent Decades

Abstract Whether sea‐ice loss or lapse‐rate feedback dominates the Arctic amplification (AA) remains an open question. Analysis of data sets based upon observations reveals a 1.11 K per decade surface warming trend in the Arctic (70°–90°N) during 1979–2020 cold season (October–February) that is five times higher than the corresponding global mean. Based on surface energy budget analysis, we show that the largest contribution (∼82%) to this cold season warming trend is attributed to changes in clear‐sky downward longwave radiation. In contrast to that in Arctic summer and over tropics, a reduction in lower‐tropospheric inversions plays a unique role in explaining the reduction of the downward longwave radiation associated with atmospheric nonuniform temperature and corresponding moisture changes. Our analyses also suggest that Arctic lower‐tropospheric stability should be considered in conjunction with sea‐ice decline during the preceding warm season to explain AA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fewer Troughs, Not More Ridges, Have Led to a Drying Trend in the Western United States

High-amplitude ridges can enforce heat-trapping systems that persist through an entire season, contributing to drought events. However, the impacts of day-to-day weather system changes at the meso- and synoptic-scale are also important, albeit less well studied. Here, we identify five weather types (WTs) from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies. These categories include WT4, which represents ridges and associated dry and warm anomalies, and WT3, which characterizes troughs and associated wetter- and colder-than-normal conditions and is the largest contributor to precipitation in the western U.S. While no discernable trend is evident for WT4 conditions, WT3 conditions have undergone a distinctive decrease in frequency at both annual and seasonal scales, thus a general drying trend across the west during this time period may be more significantly associated with fewer troughs rather than more ridges. Attribution analysis reveals that this decrease in wetter and colder weather is a likely result of anthropogenic forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends

Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ab initio quantum many-body description of superconducting trends in the cuprates

Using a systematic ab initio quantum many-body approach that goes beyond low-energy models, we directly compute the superconducting pairing order and estimate the pairing gap of several doped cuprate materials and structures within a purely electronic picture. We find that we can correctly capture two well-known trends: the pressure effect, where the pairing order and gap increase with intra-layer pressure, and the layer effect, where the pairing order and gap vary with the number of copper-oxygen layers. From these calculations, we observe that the strength of superexchange and the covalency at optimal doping are the best descriptors for these trends. Our microscopic analysis further identifies that strong short-range spin fluctuations and multi-orbital charge fluctuations drive the development of the pairing order. Our work illustrates the possibility of a material-specific ab initio understanding of unconventional high-temperature superconducting materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, in this study, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MHD stability trends and improved performance of LHD inward-shifted configurations: The role of the neutral beam current drive and thermal plasma density

The aim of the present study is to analyze the effect of the neutral beam current drive (NBCD), thermal plasma density, and NBI operational regime on the stability of pressure gradient-driven modes (PGDM) and Alfvén eigenmodes (AE) in LHD inward-shifted configurations. The stabilization of n/m = 1/2 PGDM (n toroidal mode and m poloidal mode) is observed in the discharge 167 800 during the co-NBCD phase. The iota profile evolution measured by motional stark effect diagnostic may indicate the iota profile up-shift caused by the co-NBCD can induce a non-resonant transition of the rational surface 1/2 before the mode stabilization. The evolution of the iota profile and continuum gaps in the discharge 167 805 during the ctr-NBCD phase leads to the stabilization of the AE, caused by the narrowing of the continuum gap as the iota profile down-shift. Opposite stability trends are identified for PGDM and AE stability with respect to the thermal plasma density. A larger thermal plasma density (larger thermal β) further enhances PGDM although the continuum gaps are narrower leading to configurations with stable AEs. The linear stability of AEs is analyzed using the gyro-fluid FAR3d code to reproduce the AE stability trends observed in the experiments with respect to the NBCD and thermal plasma density. The analysis of hypothetical scenarios dedicated to study different NBI operational regimes with respect to EP energy, and β and radial density profiles indicate off-axis NBI operation shows a higher EP β threshold to destabilize AEs compared to on-axis configuration. This is explained by the presence of a TAE gap in the inner plasma region, easily destabilized by an on-axis NBI injection. The control of the NBCD and thermal plasma in the discharge 167 800 shows a transitory stabilization of PGDM and AEs, as well as an improved discharge performance identified by an increment of the neutron fluxes.

Varela, Jacobo↗
DOE OSTI2026

A theoretical index for understanding distinct land relative humidity trends in observations, reanalyses, and models

Land surface relative humidity (RH) is a key variable in the coupled land–atmosphere system that profoundly influences terrestrial hydroclimate and ecosystems. Yet historical changes in land RH are not well understood due to limited observations, biased reanalyses, and the lack of a framework for interpreting RH changes under multiple influencing factors. Here, we show that the spatiotemporal variability of land RH and its distinct historical trends among observations, reanalyses, and Earth system models are captured by a simple index based on the ratio of precipitation (P) to a modified potential evapotranspiration formulated independently of RH (PET°). The index provides a physical calibration of biased land RH in reanalyses and a quantitative framework for interpreting land RH changes. Over 1973–2024, land RH has decreased substantially, owing to the intrinsic rise in PET° with temperature and little increase in land precipitation. Reanalyses overestimate the observed RH decrease, consistent with exaggerated surface warming and precipitation decline. The index captures this coherent bias and enables a calibration using observed precipitation and temperature. Models simulate a wide range of land RH trends, but nearly all runs underrepresent the historical drying. The index captures the model spread and discrepancy and attributes them to contributions of precipitation and PET°. Weaker land RH decreases in models arise mainly from weaker subtropical precipitation declines, linked to muted intensification of subtropical highs and biased subtropical climatology. The model–observation discrepancy is unlikely explained by internal variability, implying model underestimation of forced RH decrease and a drier land future than current projections.

Earth system models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trends in runaway electron plateau partial recombination by massive H 2 or D 2 injection in DIII-D and JET and first extrapolations to ITER and SPARC

Abstract Experimental trends in thermal plasma partial recombination resulting from massive D 2 injection into high-Z (Ar) containing runaway electron (RE) plateaus in DIII-D and JET are studied for the purpose of achieving sufficiently low electron density ( n e ≈ 10 18 m − 3 ) to increase RE final loss MHD levels. In both DIII-D and JET, thermal electron density n e is found to drop by ∼100 × when the thermal plasma partially recombines, with a minimum at a vacuum vessel-averaged D 2 density in the range 10 20 − 10 21 m − 3 . RE effective resistivity also drops after partial recombination, indicating expulsion of the Ar content. The n e level after partial recombination is found to increase as RE current is increased. The amount of initial Ar in the RE plateau is not observed to have a strong effect on partial recombination. Partial recombination timescales of order 5 ms in DIII-D and 15 ms in JET are observed. These basic trends and timescales are matched with a 1D diffusion model, which is then used to extrapolate to ITER and SPARC tokamaks. Within the approximations of this model, it is predicted that ITER will be able to achieve sufficiently low n e values on time scales faster than expected RE plateau vertical drift timescales (of order 100 ms), provided sufficient D 2 or H 2 is injected. In SPARC, it is predicted that achieving significant n e recombination will be challenging, due to the very high RE current density. In both ITER and SPARC, it is predicted that achieving low n e will be easier with Ar as a background impurity (rather than Ne).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on ambient PM 2.5 and O 3 pollution and the related health burden for 2000–2015

Global economic development and urbanization during the past two decades have driven the increases in demand of personal and commercial vehicle fleets, especially in developing countries, which has likely resulted in changes in year-to-year vehicle tailpipe emissions associated with aerosols and trace gases. However, long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on air quality and human health are not clear. In this study, we employ the Community Earth System Model in conjunction with the newly developed Community Emissions Data System as anthropogenic emission inventory to quantify the long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on ambient air quality and human health for the period of 2000–2015. Global gasoline and diesel emissions contributed to regional increases in annual mean surface PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm) concentrations by up to 17.5 and 13.7 µg m –3 , and surface ozone (O 3 ) concentrations by up to 7.1 and 7.2 ppbv, respectively, for 2000–2015. However, we also found substantial declines of surface PM 2.5 and O 3 concentrations over Europe, the US, Canada, and China for the same period, which suggested the co-benefits of air quality and human health from improving gasoline and diesel fuel quality and tightening vehicle emissions standards. Globally, we estimate the mean annual total PM 2.5- and O 3 -induced premature deaths are 139 700–170 700 for gasoline and 205 200–309 300 for diesel, with the corresponding years of life lost of 2.74–3.47 and 4.56–6.52 million years, respectively. Diesel and gasoline emissions create health-effect disparities between the developed and developing countries, which are likely to aggravate afterwards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data efficiency and extrapolation trends in neural network interatomic potentials

Abstract Recently, key architectural advances have been proposed for neural network interatomic potentials (NNIPs), such as incorporating message-passing networks, equivariance, or many-body expansion terms. Although modern NNIP models exhibit small differences in test accuracy, this metric is still considered the main target when developing new NNIP architectures. In this work, we show how architectural and optimization choices influence the generalization of NNIPs, revealing trends in molecular dynamics (MD) stability, data efficiency, and loss landscapes. Using the 3BPA dataset, we uncover trends in NNIP errors and robustness to noise, showing these metrics are insufficient to predict MD stability in the high-accuracy regime. With a large-scale study on NequIP, MACE, and their optimizers, we show that our metric of loss entropy predicts out-of-distribution error and data efficiency despite being computed only on the training set. This work provides a deep learning justification for probing extrapolation and can inform the development of next-generation NNIPs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗