Towards the assessment of technology transfer capabilities: An action research-enhanced HDM model
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Lavoie, Joao Ricardo↗
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Results for “technology modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Decarbonization Potential of Global Fired Clay Brick Production
Fired clay bricks (FCBs) are a dominant building material globally due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model, using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs. Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this fraction could increase to 3.5-5% in 2050 considering a moderate SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency; (ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%, and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.
Olsson, Josefine A↗
New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application
Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.
Gomes, Dylan G. E. (ORCID:0000000226423728)↗
Abstract for CRADA between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Carbon To Stone, Inc.
The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Carbon To Stone (CTS), Inc. (Participant) will collaborate on a techno-economic assessment (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of CTS’s carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technology under an awarded project from the Department of Energy’s Direct Air Capture Pre-Commercialization Technology Prize. CTS has developed a technological platform that captures carbon dioxide (CO2) from air and mineralizes it into durable carbonates using alkaline industrial residues such as steel slag and mine tailings. In addition, CTS’s technology uses electrochemistry to recover value-added energy critical metals (ECMs) from these residues. NETL has expertise in CDR TEA and LCA development. The collaboration between CTS and NETL aims to quantify the performance, cost and lifecycle impacts of CTS’s technology and produce LCA and TEA models that can accelerate development and deployment of this technology.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
From Atoms to Electricity: Multi-Scale Modeling of Solid Oxide Cells at the National Energy Technology Laboratory
ICACC 2022, Virtual, January 22-27, 2022
Epting, William↗
Sparse chronology strategy for integrating seasonal energy storage in capacity expansion models
Here, this study develops the sparse chronology method to enhance the representative period framework in capacity expansion models, enabling the effective integration of long-duration energy storage modeling. Traditional representative period methods cannot capture the state of charge of seasonal energy storage systems because they do not establish effective inter-day linkages to connect the state of charge between periods. The sparse chronology approach addresses this limitation by establishing inter-day linkages that allow state of charge to shift inter-seasonally. At the same time, it groups identical representative days into partitions, applying constraints sparsely and implicitly to reduce computational load further. Validation results demonstrate that this method successfully simulates long-duration energy storage patterns, achieving close alignment with a continuous yearly benchmark model, with seasonal trends and state of charge cycles clearly represented. The computational load analysis reveals that the sparse chronology method efficiently applies constraints on maximum and minimum state of charge limits within the representative day framework, eliminating the need for detailed constraints on each individual day. By partitioning representative days and constraining only the start and end of each partition, the method significantly decreases computational requirements. Simulation results show that sparse chronology closely approximates the continuous yearly method's accuracy, even with as few as 20 representative days, achieving correlation values with the benchmark of nearly 0.9 in state of charge plots. Furthermore, it maintains computational efficiency, requiring only 4 % of the solver time compared to the continuous yearly method with 20 representative days. This approach allows capacity expansion models to incorporate long-duration energy storage with high temporal, spatial, and technological resolution, enabling more detailed modeling for large-scale power systems.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NREL 15-kW: An Advanced Horizontal-Axis Reference Turbine for Distributed Wind
Distributed wind energy can play a significant role in the renewable energy landscape. A recent study conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) identified the lack of availability and utilization of reference wind turbine models as a major hindrance in the development of the distributed wind energy technology sector, even though such models are widely used in offshore and land-based wind research. Therefore, NREL is developing three reference wind turbine architectures, also called archetypes, for distributed wind energy applications. This paper describes the detailed design and modeling of the first of the three reference turbine archetypes, called the NREL 15-kW turbine. It is a passive-yaw, upwind turbine with a rated power of 15 kW.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
SAM Linear Fresnel Model, Project B (CRADA Final Report)
Objective performance and economic modeling of solar thermal plants is of keen interest to many EPRI funders. One solar thermal technology that is not currently available to model in any non-vendor, non-proprietary tool is linear Fresnel. This technology has garnered enough interest from EPRI funders to merit investing in a tool to objectively model its performance. Early in 2010, EPRI performed a comparison of modeling solar thermal power plants using the IPSEPRO, CNRS and Solar Advisor (SAM) tools. After completing this effort, EPRI decided to adopt NREL’s Solar Advisor Model as its default modeling tool based in part on user friendliness, flexibility, number of technologies covered, integrated financial model and ease of running sensitivities. Furthermore, it was recognized that NREL continues to invest considerable time and resources into improving capabilities and functionality of the model.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Infinite neural network quantum states: entanglement and training dynamics
We study infinite limits of neural network quantum states (∞-NNQS), which exhibit representation power through ensemble statistics, and also tractable gradient descent dynamics. Ensemble averages of entanglement entropies are expressed in terms of neural network correlators, and architectures that exhibit volume-law entanglement are presented. The analytic calculations of entanglement entropy bound are tractable because the ensemble statistics are simplified in the Gaussian process limit. A general framework is developed for studying the gradient descent dynamics of neural network quantum states (NNQS), using a quantum state neural tangent kernel (QS-NTK). For ∞-NNQS the training dynamics is simplified, since the QS-NTK becomes deterministic and constant. An analytic solution is derived for quantum state supervised learning, which allows an ∞-NNQS to recover any target wavefunction. Numerical experiments on finite and infinite NNQS in the transverse field Ising model and Fermi Hubbard model demonstrate excellent agreement with theory. ∞-NNQS opens up new opportunities for studying entanglement and training dynamics in other physics applications, such as in finding ground states.
quantum state supervised learning↗
Development and preliminary validation of a mechanistic multiscale model for fuel-cladding chemical interaction in metallic nuclear fuels
Despite decades of fuel rod material and design improvements, fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) remains the single-most lifetime-limiting behavior for modern metallic fuel rods. Constraining fuel lifetime increases operating costs, limiting the economic viability of commercializing metallic nuclear fuel technology. A mechanistic multiscale model utilizing the finite element method-based MARMOT and BISON codes was developed to more confidently predict cladding-side FCCI and its impact on fuel performance. The new BISON model incorporates mesoscale models for the effects of fuel microstructure evolution on the transport of wastage-inducing lanthanides through the fuel and for the kinetics of cladding wastage layer growth. The mesoscale models, in turn, build on lanthanide transport property data obtained from the atomistic scale. Preliminary validation studies using wastage thickness and cladding profilometry data from four fuel rods irradiated in Experimental Breeder Reactor II experiment X447 and one fuel rod from Fast Flux Test Facility experiment IFR1 show that the new model predicts cladding wastage and its effects on cladding deformation as well as existing empirical FCCI correlations. The new model is expected to aid in the design of new metallic fuel concepts, including fuel additives, cladding liners, and sodium-free annular fuel geometries. In conclusion, future work will focus on broader validation and refinement of the model’s treatment of different fuel alloys and cladding materials.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Bayesian Parameter Estimation of the k-ω Shear Stress Transport Model for Accurate Simulations of Impinging-Jet Heat Transfer
Given the lack of fusion-relevant component test facilities, current estimates of the thermo-fluid performance of plasma-facing components are based for the most part on numerical simulations. A major source of uncertainty in these simulations is the semiempirical turbulence (closure) models for the Reynolds stresses appearing in the governing Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, which involve a set of constants that depend upon the flow. The objective of this study is to evaluate Bayesian parameter estimation of turbulence closure constants in ANSYS Fluent to model heat transfer in impinging jets. The Bayesian statistical calibration produces a probability distribution for these constants from experimental data; the maximum a posteriori estimates are then taken to be the calibrated constants, or parameters. The turbulence model constants are calibrated using an experimental study of a submerged jet of air impinging on a flat heated surface at Reynolds numbers Re = O(10 4 ) and impingement distance in jet diameters H/d = 2. Numerical predictions using the calibrated model parameters are then compared with those generated using the default constants. Predictions obtained with model parameters calibrated on datasets of two different sizes are compared to evaluate the effect of the number of calibration samples. Lastly, the extrapolative ability of the calibrated model is examined by predictions at a Re beyond the calibration values.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
1.2.2.405 HydroWIRES Topic D1: Capacity Expansion Model (CEM) Enhancements
Long-term grid planning tools have difficulty representing detailed hydropower operating characteristics, which depend not only on technological specifications but also on water management practices and regulations. As a result, the value of hydropower is incompletely characterized, and the potential role of hydropower in the performance and resiliency of the future electric grid is not fully understood. This work will fill that gap by developing new ways to represent hydropower resource, technology, and operational characteristics in electric sector capacity expansion models and implementing them in the open-source version of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. ReEDS is a well-established national scale grid planning tool used since 2003 by the U.S. Department of Energy and others to explore the evolution of the U.S. electric sector. Improvements will include a comprehensive national resource assessment for pumped storage hydropower and methods for modeling multiple hydropower technology categories characterized by technical, regulatory, and economic characteristics. The project will provide guiding principles and strategies for improving hydropower modeling in capacity expansion models and deliver a first-of-its kind versatile PSH dataset. All data, code, and methods will be publicly available, allowing the industry to better identify the value of hydropower in the future electricity system and make more informed planning decisions.
capacity expansion↗
Nine Canyon Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Feasibility Study
The Nine Canyon Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) Feasibility Study explores the technical and economic viability of deploying advanced energy storage technologies at Energy Northwest's (EN) Nine Canyon (9C) Wind Project site in Benton County, Washington. Supported by the Washington State Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under its LDES Voucher Program, the study represents a collaborative effort between EN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and ARES North America. At the core of this effort is the development of a generalized techno-economic modeling framework and evaluation tool designed to assess the value proposition of LDES projects across a variety of contexts. The modeling tool is technology-agnostic and accommodates user-defined parameters such as rated power, energy duration, round-trip efficiency, capital and operational costs, and dispatch constraints. It also integrates economic inputs, including market prices, energy revenue structures, and financing parameters to evaluate performance through key metrics. The tool provides utilities with a transparent, adaptable platform to support decision-making, investment prioritization, and portfolio planning for various storage technologies. To guide scenario design and interpretation, the study first surveyed the LDES technology landscape, including lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, non-hydro gravity storage, and thermo-mechanical systems, comparing cost trajectories, technical performance, safety and hazards, materials sourcing and recyclability, and spatial/siting considerations. This literature-grounded review highlights technology trade-offs and reinforces the need to align technology choice with site characteristics, use cases, and project objectives. A companion chapter examines ownership structures (EN ownership, third-party ownership, shared models) and offtake options (energy marketing, capacity/energy PPAs, time-of-use PPAs, block-delivery PPAs, and tolling), where PPAs (power purchase agreements) represent contractual arrangements for buying and selling electricity. The chapter also highlights implications for risk allocation, capital access, operational control, and revenue certainty. The study also evaluates supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and transmission interconnection pathways, options include upgrading the existing SCADA or deploying a dedicated LDES controller, with attention to protection schemes, data telemetry, cybersecurity, and regulatory coordination with BPA. In addition, an ARES-specific geotechnical and hydrology assessment presented in the appendix screens multiple corridors for slope stability, bearing capacity, cut-and-fill magnitude, and stormwater behavior.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NLR Core Modeling & Decision Support Capabilities: FASTSim, RouteE, T3CO & OpenPATH
This project is part of the program area to develop and improve core capabilities for the Energy-Efficient Mobility Systems (EEMS) program that enable research, development and deployment of advanced mobility solutions and enhance the EEMS Program's ability to address system-level transportation challenges. Advancements to the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim), Route Energy Prediction Model (RouteE), Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership (T3CO) and Open Platform for Agile Trip Heuristics (OpenPATH) core capabilities under this project supports the overall EEMS Program goals to effectively evaluate energy and mobility impacts of future transportation technologies and services, and to identify the most promising pathways to reduce transportation costs and environmental harms, and to improve mobility access. This presentation was prepared for the 2026 Annual Merit Review of this project.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises
What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Status Report on FY2022 Model Development within the Integrated Energy Systems HYBRID Repository
This publication details newly created energy storage models developed within the HYBRID Modelica repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of a pebble bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR), liquid air energy storage (LAES), and compressed air energy storage (CAES) in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to flexibly operate in ways consistent with IES operation expectations. When these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Follow-On Status Report on FY2022 Model Development within the Integrated Energy Systems Hybrid Repository
This publication details newly created energy storage and reactor models developed within the HYBRID modeling repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of a pebble bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR), compressed air energy storage (CAES), and Modelica standard library based two-tank sensible heat storage (SHS) in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to flexibly operate in ways consistent with IES operation expectations. When these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Delivery of Dynamic Thermal Energy Storage Models and Advanced Reactor Concept Models to the HYBRID Repository
This publication details newly created energy storage and reactor models developed within the HYBRID modeling repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of a pebble bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR), sodium fast reactor (SFR), compressed air energy storage (CAES), liquid air energy storage (LAES) and Modelica standard library based two-tank sensible heat storage (SHS) in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to flexibly operate in ways consistent with IES operation expectations. When these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed. Also detailed in this report are future development goals for the HYBRID repository including adding suites of steady-state models, economic costing information, and reduced-order models. By adding these models in addition to the physical transient models currently existing within HYBRID, HYBRID will be a fully integrable tool for FORCE users.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗