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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Solar system exploration from the Moon: Synoptic and comparative study of bodies in our Planetary system

An observational approach to Planetary Sciences and exploration from Earth applies to a quite limited number of targets, but most of these are spatially complex, and exhibit variability and evolution on a number of temporal scales which lie within the scope of possible observations. Advancing our understanding of the underlying physics requires the study of interactions between the various elements of such systems, and also requires study of the comparative response of both a given object to various conditions and of comparable objects to similar conditions. These studies are best conducted in 'campaigns', i.e. comprehensive programs combining simultaneous coherent observations of every interacting piece of the puzzle. The requirements include both imaging and spectroscopy over a wide spectral range, from UV to IR. While temporal simultaneity of operation in various modes is a key feature, these observations are also conducted over extended periods of time. The moon is a prime site offering long unbroken observation times and high positional stability, observations at small angular separation from the sun, comparative studies of planet Earth, and valuable technical advantages. A lunar observatory should become a central piece of any coherent set of planetary missions, supplying in-situ explorations with the synoptic and comparative data necessary for proper advance planning, correlative observations during the active exploratory phase, and follow-up studies of the target body or of related objects.

Bruston, P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and validation of a mathematical model of heart rate response to fluid perturbation

Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient’s condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain preclinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial. A physiological variable that plays a major role during fluid resuscitation is heart rate (HR). For in silico assessment of PCLC medical devices regarding fluid perturbation, there is currently no mathematical model of HR validated in terms of its predictive capability performance. This paper develops and validates a mathematical model of HR response using data collected from sheep subjects undergoing hemorrhage and fluid infusion. The model proved to be accurate in estimating the HR response to fluid perturbation, where averaged between 21 calibration datasets, the fitting performance showed a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 7.41 ± 2.8%. The model was also evaluated in terms of model predictive capability performance via a leave-one-out procedure (21 subjects) and an independent validation dataset (6 subjects). Two different virtual cohort generation tools were used in each validation analysis. The generated envelope of virtual subjects robustly met the defined acceptance criteria, in which 95% of the testing datasets presented simulated HR patterns that were within a deviation of 50% from the observed data. In addition, out of 16000 and 18522 simulated subjects for the leave one-out and independent datasets, the model was able to generate at least one virtual subject that was close to the real subject within an error margin of 9.56 ± 3.15% and 11.1 ± 1.22% NRMSE, respectively. In conclusion, the model can generate valid virtual HR physiological responses to fluid perturbation and be incorporated into future non-clinical simulated testing setups for assessing PCLC devices intended for fluid resuscitation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

The giant impact produced a precipitated Moon

The author's current simulations of Giant Impacts on the protoearth show the development of large hot rock vapor atmospheres. The Balbus-Hawley mechanism will pump mass and angular momentum outwards in the equatorial plane; upon cooling and expansion the rock vapor will condense refractory material beyond the Roche distance, where it is available for lunar formation. During the last seven years, the author together with several colleagues has carried out a series of numerical investigations of the Giant Impact theory for the origin of the Moon. These involved three-dimensional simulations of the impact and its aftermath using Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH), in which the matter in the system is divided into discrete particles whose motions and internal energies are determined as a result of the imposed initial conditions. Densities and pressures are determined from the combined overlaps of the particles, which have a bell-shaped density distribution characterized by a smoothing length. In the original series of runs all particle masses and smoothing lengths had the same values; the matter in the colliding bodies consisted of initial iron cores and rock (dunite) mantles. Each of 41 runs used 3,008 particles, took several weeks of continuous computation, and gave fairly good representations of the ultimate state of the post-collision body or bodies but at best crude and qualitative information about individual particles in orbit. During the last two years an improved SPH program was used in which the masses and smoothing lengths of the particles are variable, and the intent of the current series of computations is to investigate the behavior of the matter exterior to the main parts of the body or bodies subsequent to the collisions. These runs are taking times comparable to a year of continuous computation in each case; they use 10,000 particles with 5,000 particles in the target and 5,000 in the impactor, and the particles thus have variable masses and smoothing lengths (the latter are dynamically adjusted so that a particle typically overlaps a few tens of its neighbors). Since the matter in the impactor provides the majority of the mass left in orbit after the collision, and since the masses of the particles that originated in the impactor are smaller than those in the target, the mass resolution in the exterior parts of the problem is greatly improved and the exterior particles properly simulate atmospheres in hydrostatic equilibrium.

Cameron, A. G. W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vertical column dual-comb spectroscopy to a TBS

Open-path dual-frequency-comb spectroscopy (DCS) is a broadband, high spectral resolution, and high precision method for measuring gas concentrations over kilometer-scale paths. It has been used for detection and quantification of emissions of pollutants, hazardous gasses, and greenhouse gasses (GHGs). DCS has been shown to measure trace-gas mixing ratios with 0.14%-0.4% agreement between instruments. To achieve high signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) with DCS, comb light is targeted onto a retroreflector at the end of the measurement path, which returns the signal to a detector co-located with the launch signal. Installing the retroreflector on a mobile platform such as a balloon or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) extends the capabilities of DCS by enabling variable path lengths, greater mobility, and access to higher altitudes. Mobile-target DCS has many uses in plume and leak detection, emissions modeling, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) studies. It is a promising method for observing vertical distributions of GHGs and mixing processes in the PBL, which are difficult to measure but important for pollution and climate monitoring as well as for understanding transport of gasses through the atmosphere. Tethered balloons are an intriguing platform because they enable longer flight durations and higher altitudes than easily obtainable with a UAV and thus allow for column measurements up to and above the PBL. New measurements completed in October/November 2024 reach the highest altitudes above ground level yet achieved by mobile-target DCS. For these measurements, the retroreflector was mounted on a 7 m diameter tethered helium balloon. An actively tracking gimbal on the ground holds the DCS launch telescope and keeps the 5 cm beam pointed onto the retroreflector while the balloon is lifted, lowered, and moved by wind and turbulence.

atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS1995

Dimensional scaling for impact cratering and perforation

POD Associates have revisited the issue of generic scaling laws able to adequately predict (within better than 20 percent) cratering in semi-infinite targets and perforations through finite thickness targets. The approach used was to apply physical logic for hydrodynamics in a consistent manner able to account for chunky-body impacts such that the only variables needed are those directly related to known material properties for both the impactor and target. The analyses were compared and verified versus CTH hydrodynamic code calculations and existing data. Comparisons with previous scaling laws were also performed to identify which (if any) were good for generic purposes. This paper is a short synopsis of the full report available through the NASA Langley Research Center, LDEF Science Office.

Watts, Alan J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A hierarchy of global ocean models coupled to CESM1

We develop a hierarchy of simplified ocean models for coupled ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The hierarchy has four members: a slab ocean model, a mixed-layer model (MLM) with entrainment and detrainment, an Ekman MLM, and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Flux corrections of heat and salt are applied to the simplified models ensuring that all hierarchy members have the same climatology. We diagnose the needed flux corrections from auxiliary simulations in which we restore the temperature and salinity to the daily climatology obtained from a target CESM1 simulation. The resulting three-dimensional corrections contain the interannual variability fluxes that maintain the correct vertical gradients of temperature and salinity in the tropics. We find that the inclusion of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow produces sea surface temperature and surface air temperature fields whose means and variances are progressively more similar to those produced by the target CESM1 simulation. We illustrate the application of the hierarchy to the problem of understanding the response of the climate system to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We find that the shifts in the positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to sea-ice loss depend critically on upper ocean processes. Specifically, heat uptake associated with the mixed-layer entrainment influences the shift in the westerly jet and ITCZ. Moreover, the shift of ITCZ is sensitive to the form of Ekman flow parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-D-19A-07: Dosimetric Comparison of HDR Plesiotherapy and Electron Beam Therapy for Superficial Lesions

Purpose: Large superficial (skin, soft tissue sarcoma) lesions located on curved areas are hard to treat with electrons. The Freiburg Flap (Nucletron, Netherlands) is a flexible mesh style surface which can be easily shaped to fit curved surfaces for reproducible HDR fraction delivery. To understand the fundamental dosimetric differences, a dosimetric comparison was made between HDR plesiotherapy (Freiburg applicator for lesions over 4cm) and external electron beam radiotherapy over cases with varying target curvature (both stylized and clinical cases). Methods: Four stylized cases with variable complexity were created using artificial DICOM axial CT slices and RT structures (a square and three curved structures on a 4.5cm radius cylinder). They were planned using Oncentra v4.3 and exported to Pinnacle v9.6 for electrons planning. The HDR source dwell positions were optimized for the best coverage of the targets using graphical optimization. Electron treatment plans were created in Pinnacle using the same CT and RT structures of three HDR cases with surface lesions previously treated with the Freiburg flap. The En face electron plans used 6-12 MeV electrons and 0.5–1 cm bolus was added to increase surface dose. The electron plans were prescribed to an isodose line to conform to the target. Results: For all lesions, the average target dose coverage was similar (D90ave of 100% for HDR vs 101% for electrons). For lesions with high curvature, the HDR coverage was better (D90 102% vs D90 97% for electron). For all cases, adjacent structures high dose region was lower for HDR than electrons (D1cc 100% for HDR vs D1cc 111% for electrons). Conclusion: HDR plesiotherapy offers excellent target conformity for superficial targets similar to electrons. However, for lesions with complex curved surfaces, HDR has the advantage to achieve better dose distributions using graphical optimization to spare adjacent normal tissue while maximizing target coverage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Mo100 to Mo99 Target Cooling Enhancements Report

Target design requirements changed significantly over the past year to a much higher beam current on larger diameter disks, and with a beam impingement on both ends of the target. Scaling from the previous design, that required significantly more mass flow rate of helium coolant, and also thinner disks. A new Aerzen GM12.4 blower was selected that can deliver up to 400 g/s at 400 psi, compared to about 100 g/s possible with the Tuthill blower previously selected.Further, to accommodate the 42 MeV, 2.7 mA beam on each side of the target, the disk thickness and the coolant gaps were halved to create the current baseline design: 0.5 mm disk thickness (at 29 mm diameter) and 0.25 mm coolant gap. Thermal-hydraulic analysis of this target, presented below for reference, gave very good results, suggesting that the target could be improved with fewer, thicker disks and with disk thickness increasing toward the target center. The total thickness of Mo100 in the target remaining the same, that reduces the number of coolant gaps. This allows for the gap width to be increased, increasing the mass flow in each gap and consequently increasing heat transfer. A preliminary geometry was selected and analyzed with variable disk thickness and wider coolant gaps. The result of analysis of this target shows that disk thickness increase near the window was too aggressive and further resizing of the disks is necessary, but it does illustrate the potential improvements that are possible. Experimental and analytical study of diffusers on the target exit has been done. This shows modest improvement in requcing pressure drop, as will be summarized below. However, the benefit is not significant, and implementation becomes problematic when disk thickness is varying. A bull nose at the entrance does offer significant benefit and is relatively easy to incorporate. A bull nose on both ends is now a feature of the baseline design, and will be a feature of any redesign or enhanced designs that follow.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Build-Up Approach to Updating the Mock Quiet Spike Beam Model

When a new aircraft is designed or a modification is done to an existing aircraft, the aeroelastic properties of the aircraft should be examined to ensure the aircraft is flight worthy. Evaluating the aeroelastic properties of a new or modified aircraft can include performing a variety of analyses, such as modal and flutter analyses. In order to produce accurate results from these analyses, it is imperative to work with finite element models (FEM) that have been validated by or correlated to ground vibration test (GVT) data, Updating an analytical model using measured data is a challenge in the area of structural dynamics. The analytical model update process encompasses a series of optimizations that match analytical frequencies and mode shapes to the measured modal characteristics of structure. In the past, the method used to update a model to test data was "trial and error." This is an inefficient method - running a modal analysis, comparing the analytical results to the GVT data, manually modifying one or more structural parameters (mass, CG, inertia, area, etc.), rerunning the analysis, and comparing the new analytical modal characteristics to the GVT modal data. If the match is close enough (close enough defined by analyst's updating requirements), then the updating process is completed. If the match does not meet updating-requirements, then the parameters are changed again and the process is repeated. Clearly, this manual optimization process is highly inefficient for large FEM's and/or a large number of structural parameters. NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) has developed, in-house, a Mode Matching Code that automates the above-mentioned optimization process, DFRC's in-house Mode Matching Code reads mode shapes and frequencies acquired from GVT to create the target model. It also reads the current analytical model, as we11 as the design variables and their upper and lower limits. It performs a modal analysis on this model and modifies it to create an updated model that has similar mode shapes and frequencies as those of the target model. The Mode Matching Code output frequencies and modal assurance criteria (MAC) values that allow for the quantified comparison of the updated model versus the target model. A recent application of this code is the F453 supersonic flight testing platform, NASA DFRC possesses a modified F-15B that is used as a test bed aircraft for supersonic flight experiments. Traditionally, the finite element model of the test article is generated. A GVT is done on the test article ta validate and update its FEM. This FEM is then mated to the F-15B model, which was correlated to GVT data in fall of 2004, A GVT is conducted with the test article mated to the aircraft, and this mated F-15B/ test article FEM is correlated to this final GVT.

Herrera, Claudia Y.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion Guidance Navigation and Control

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch. We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool ("Critical Factors Tool" or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Pressburger, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Monte Carlo Simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of ambient temperature on electric vehicle range considering battery Performance, powertrain Efficiency, and HVAC load

Here, this study investigates the impact of ambient temperature on the range of electric vehicles (EVs) by analyzing its effects on usable battery energy (UBE), heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption, and powertrain energy losses. Chassis dynamometer tests within a thermal chamber were conducted under various temperature conditions to investigate these impacts. The results indicate that lower temperatures lead to a decrease in UBE for lithium-ion batteries in EVs. At −18 °C, the UBE exhibited reductions of 4---8 % compared to the UBE at 22 °C. Battery thermal management strategies significantly affected the UBE loss, with different strategies resulting in distinct UBE reductions. HVAC energy consumption, especially for interior heating, proved to be the most dominant variable affecting EV driving range. Larger discrepancies between the HVAC target temperature (22 °C) and the ambient temperature increased HVAC energy usage. The type of HVAC system also influenced energy consumption, where EVs equipped with heat pumps demonstrated lower energy consumption for heating compared to those relying solely on resistance heaters. Ambient temperature also influenced motor energy consumption due to increased frictions, powertrain losses and tire rolling resistance at lower temperatures; consequently, regenerative braking energy decreased in cold conditions. Combining these effects influenced the overall energy consumption and driving range of EVs. At −18 °C, the driving range saw a substantial decrease of up to 60 % compared to 22 °C, while a slight decrease was observed at 35 °C.

Ambient Temperature↗
DOE OSTI2023

The need for ion-exchange membranes with high charge densities

Ion-exchange membranes (IEMs) are essential for controlling ion transport in electrochemical membrane-based technologies for water purification, energy generation, and energy storage. In general, IEMs must exhibit high ionic conductivity and selectivity, both of which are significantly influenced by the charge and water content of the hydrated membrane. In this perspective, we compiled the charge and water contents of approximately 1,000 IEMs reported over the past several decades to assess their range and variability, as well as to reveal gaps and set clear targets for future membrane design. We compared the charge and water content of negatively and positively charged membranes, as well as membranes developed for desalination and energy applications. The majority of IEMs, regardless of structure or intended application, have volumetric charge densities below 3 mol/L[membrane]. This narrow range of charge densities limits the performance of IEMs and contributes to the observed tradeoff between ion throughput and selectivity. It is critical to develop IEMs with higher charge densities to overcome this performance limitation. Further, we highlighted several design strategies that yielded IEMs with fixed charge densities higher than 3 mol/L[membrane]. These strategies provide valuable insights and can guide the design of next-generation IEMs with high charge densities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Hyperspectral target detection using manifold learning and multiple target spectra

Imagery collected from satellites and airborne platforms provides an important tool for remotely analyzing the content of a scene. In particular, the ability to remotely detect a specific material within a scene is of critical importance in nonproliferation and other applications. The sensor systems that process hyperspectral images collect the high-dimensional spectral information necessary to perform these detection analyses. For a d-dimensional hyperspectral image, however, where d is the number of spectral bands, it is common for the data to inherently occupy an m-dimensional space with m << d. In the remote sensing community, this has led to recent interest in the use of manifold learning, which seeks to characterize the embedded lower-dimensional, nonlinear manifold that the data discretely approximate. The research presented in this paper focuses on a graph theory and manifold learning approach to target detection, using an adaptive version of locally linear embedding that is biased to separate target pixels from background pixels. Finally, this approach incorporates multiple target signatures for a particular material, accounting for the spectral variability that is often present within a solid material of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A transported Livengood-Wu integral model for knock prediction in CFD simulation

This work describes the development of a transported Livengood-Wu (L-W) integral model for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict auto-ignition and engine knock tendency. The currently employed L-W integral model considers both single-stage and two-stage ignition processes, thus can be generally applied to different fuels such as paraffin, olefin, aromatics and alcohol. The model implementation is first validated in simulations of homogeneous charge compression ignition combustion for three different fuels, showing good accuracy in prediction of auto-ignition timing for fuels with either single-stage or two-stage ignition characteristics. Then, the L-W integral model is coupled with G-equation model to indicate end-gas auto-ignition and knock tendency in CFD simulations of a direct injection spark ignition engine. This modeling approach is about 10 times more efficient than the ones that based on detailed chemistry calculation and pressure oscillation analysis. Two fuels with same Research Octane Number (RON) but different octane sensitivity are studied, namely Co-Optima Alkylate and Co-Optima E30. Feed-forward neural network model in conjunction with multi-variable minimization technique is used to generate fuel surrogates with targets of matched RON, octane sensitivity and ethanol content. The CFD model is validated against experimental data in terms of pressure traces and heat release rate for both fuels under a wide range of operating conditions. The knock tendency indicated by the fuel energy contained in the auto-ignited region of the two fuels at different load conditions correlates well with the experimental results and the fuel octane sensitivity, implying the current knock modeling approach can capture the octane sensitivity effect and can be applied to further investigation on composition of octane sensitivity.

Yue, Zongyu↗
DOE OSTI2016

Generic and robust method for automatic segmentation of PET images using an active contour model

Purpose: Although positron emission tomography (PET) images have shown potential to improve the accuracy of targeting in radiation therapy planning and assessment of response to treatment, the boundaries of tumors are not easily distinguishable from surrounding normal tissue owing to the low spatial resolution and inherent noisy characteristics of PET images. The objective of this study is to develop a generic and robust method for automatic delineation of tumor volumes using an active contour model and to evaluate its performance using phantom and clinical studies. Methods: MASAC, a method for automatic segmentation using an active contour model, incorporates the histogram fuzzy C-means clustering, and localized and textural information to constrain the active contour to detect boundaries in an accurate and robust manner. Moreover, the lattice Boltzmann method is used as an alternative approach for solving the level set equation to make it faster and suitable for parallel programming. Twenty simulated phantom studies and 16 clinical studies, including six cases of pharyngolaryngeal squamous cell carcinoma and ten cases of nonsmall cell lung cancer, were included to evaluate its performance. Besides, the proposed method was also compared with the contourlet-based active contour algorithm (CAC) and Schaefer’s thresholding method (ST). The relative volume error (RE), Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), and classification error (CE) metrics were used to analyze the results quantitatively. Results: For the simulated phantom studies (PSs), MASAC and CAC provide similar segmentations of the different lesions, while ST fails to achieve reliable results. For the clinical datasets (2 cases with connected high-uptake regions excluded) (CSs), CAC provides for the lowest mean RE (−8.38% ± 27.49%), while MASAC achieves the best mean DSC (0.71 ± 0.09) and mean CE (53.92% ± 12.65%), respectively. MASAC could reliably quantify different types of lesions assessed in this work with good accuracy, resulting in a mean RE of −13.35% ± 11.87% and −11.15% ± 23.66%, a mean DSC of 0.89 ± 0.05 and 0.71 ± 0.09, and a mean CE of 19.19% ± 7.89% and 53.92% ± 12.65%, for PSs and CSs, respectively. Conclusions: The authors’ results demonstrate that the developed novel PET segmentation algorithm is applicable to various types of lesions in the authors’ study and is capable of producing accurate and consistent target volume delineations, potentially resulting in reduced intraobserver and interobserver variabilities observed when using manual delineation and improved accuracy in treatment planning and outcome evaluation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗