Development of a Commercial Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical Simulator for Subsurface Energy Systems: SBIR Phase I Report
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “surrogate systems modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Control of Wind Turbines for Fast Frequency Response
In order to fulfill vital auxiliary grid services, such as load regulation, spin and non-spin reserve provision, and frequency support during emergencies, there is often a requirement for certain wind farms to operate in de-loaded modes. Leveraging the swift response capabilities of wind farms, this study demonstrates that reserving power in de-loaded modes can significantly enhance power grid stability and reliability during system contingencies. Controlling wind farms optimally for frequency support is intricate due to the nonlinearity of models and controllers and the complexity of wind farm interactions with power systems. Here, to address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel approach that integrates wind turbines into reinforcement learning-based solutions for frequency response. This innovative methodology utilizes the state-of-the-art reinforcement learning algorithm known as the surrogate-gradient-based evolutionary strategy. The proposed learning-based algorithm provides continuous control of wind farm output to rapidly stabilize system frequency and prevent unnecessary trips of under-frequency load shedding relays. To facilitate efficient training, parallel computing techniques are employed. The proposed methodology is evaluated on a modified IEEE-39 bus system, and simulation results reveal its efficacy in reliably supporting power system frequency and preventing the need for unnecessary load shedding.
Gao, Wei [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argon↗
Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification
Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Safety evaluation of connected and automated vehicles in mixed traffic with conventional vehicles at intersections
Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) can potentially improve the performance of the transportation system by reducing human errors. This paper investigates the safety impact of CAVs in a mixed traffic with conventional vehicles at intersections. Analyzing real-world AV crashes in California revealed that rear-end crashes at intersections are the dominant crash type. Therefore, to enhance our understanding of the future interactions between human-driven vehicles with CAVs at intersections, a simulation framework was developed to model the mixed traffic environment of Automated Vehicles (AV), cooperative AVs, and conventional human-driven vehicles. In order to model AVs driving behavior, Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) and cooperative ACC (CACC) models are utilized. Particularly, this study explores system improvements due to automation and connectivity across varying CAV market penetration scenarios. ACC and CACC car following models are used to mimic the behavior of AVs and cooperative AVs. Real-world connected vehicle data are utilized to modify and tune the acceleration/deceleration regimes of the Wiedemann model. Next, the driving volatility concept capturing variability in vehicle speeds was utilized to calibrate the simulation to represent the safety performance of a real-world environment. Two surrogate safety measures are used to evaluate the safety performance of a representative intersection under different market penetration rate of CAVs: the number of longitudinal conflicts and driving volatility. At low levels of ACC market penetration, the safety improvements were found to be marginal, but safety improved substantially with more than 40% ACC penetration. Additional safety improvements can be achieved more quickly through the addition of cooperation and connectivity through CACC. Furthermore, ACC/CACC vehicles were found to improve mobility performance in terms of average speed and travel time at intersections.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
BUQEYE guide to projection-based emulators in nuclear physics
The BUQEYE collaboration (Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification: Errors in Your effective field theory) presents a pedagogical introduction to projection-based, reduced-order emulators for applications in low-energy nuclear physics. The term emulator refers here to a fast surrogate model capable of reliably approximating high-fidelity models. As the general tools employed by these emulators are not yet well-known in the nuclear physics community, we discuss variational and Galerkin projection methods, emphasize the benefits of offline-online decompositions, and explore how these concepts lead to emulators for bound and scattering systems that enable fast and accurate calculations using many different model parameter sets. We also point to future extensions and applications of these emulators for nuclear physics, guided by the mature field of model (order) reduction. All examples discussed here and more are available as interactive, open-source Python code so that practitioners can readily adapt projection-based emulators for their own work.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Framework for Optimization, Quantification of Uncertainty and Surrogates – Updated Capabilities
This poster presents updated capabilities within the FOQUS Toolset, covering core features as well as project-based applications. Specifically, the poster highlights advancements in FOQUS integration with cloud-based clients, plugin support for machine learning tools and external simulations, sequential design of experiments, and advanced support for dynamic process models. The applications demonstrate the breadth of FOQUS predictive capabilities for chemical, energy and economic system analysis.
Paul, Brandon↗
Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF
In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.
ensemble forecasting↗
Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects
This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries
Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Data‐driven variational method for discrepancy modeling: Dynamics with small‐strain nonlinear elasticity and viscoelasticity
Abstract The effective inclusion of a priori knowledge when embedding known data in physics‐based models of dynamical systems can ensure that the reconstructed model respects physical principles, while simultaneously improving the accuracy of the solution in the previously unseen regions of state space. This paper presents a physics‐constrained data‐driven discrepancy modeling method that variationally embeds known data in the modeling framework. The hierarchical structure of the method yields fine scale variational equations that facilitate the derivation of residuals which are comprised of the first‐principles theory and sensor‐based data from the dynamical system. The embedding of the sensor data via residual terms leads to discrepancy‐informed closure models that yield a method which is driven not only by boundary and initial conditions, but also by measurements that are taken at only a few observation points in the target system. Specifically, the data‐embedding term serves as residual‐based least‐squares loss function, thus retaining variational consistency. Another important relation arises from the interpretation of the stabilization tensor as a kernel function, thereby incorporating a priori knowledge of the problem and adding computational intelligence to the modeling framework. Numerical test cases show that when known data is taken into account, the data driven variational (DDV) method can correctly predict the system response in the presence of several types of discrepancies. Specifically, the damped solution and correct energy time histories are recovered by including known data in the undamped situation. Morlet wavelet analyses reveal that the surrogate problem with embedded data recovers the fundamental frequency band of the target system. The enhanced stability and accuracy of the DDV method is manifested via reconstructed displacement and velocity fields that yield time histories of strain and kinetic energies which match the target systems. The proposed DDV method also serves as a procedure for restoring eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a deficient dynamical system when known data is taken into account, as shown in the numerical test cases presented here.
Masud, Arif↗
Infrared spectroscopy data- and physics-driven machine learning for characterizing surface microstructure of complex materials
There is a need to characterize complex materials and their dynamics under reaction conditions to accelerate materials design. Adsorbate vibrational excitations are selective to adsorbate/surface interactions and infrared (IR) spectra associated with activating adsorbate vibrational modes are accurate, capture details of most modes, and can be obtained operando. Current interpretation depends on heuristic peak assignments for simple spectra, precluding the possibility of obtaining detailed structural information. Here, we combine data-based approaches with chemistry-dependent problem formulation to develop physics-driven surrogate models that generate synthetic IR spectra from first-principles calculations. Using synthetic IR spectra of carbon monoxide on platinum, we implement multinomial regression via neural network ensembles to learn probability distributions functions (pdfs) that describe adsorption sites and quantify uncertainty. We use these pdfs to infer detailed surface microstructure from experimental spectra and extend this methodology to other systems as a first step towards characterizing complex interfaces and closing the materials gap.
Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Quantum annealing-assisted lattice optimization
High Entropy Alloys (HEAs) have drawn great interest due to their exceptional properties compared to conventional materials. The configuration of HEA system is considered a key to their superior properties, but exhausting all possible configurations of atom coordinates and species to find the ground energy state is extremely challenging. In this work, we proposed a quantum annealing-assisted lattice optimization (QALO) algorithm, which is an active learning framework that integrates the Field-aware Factorization Machine (FFM) as the surrogate model for lattice energy prediction, Quantum Annealing (QA) as an optimizer and Machine Learning Potential (MLP) for ground truth energy calculation. By applying our algorithm to the NbMoTaW alloy, we reproduced the Nb depletion and W enrichment observed in bulk HEA. We found our optimized HEAs to have superior mechanical properties compared to the randomly generated alloy configurations. Our algorithm highlights the potential of quantum computing in materials design and discovery, laying a foundation for further exploring and optimizing structure-property relationships.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Sensitivity Study of Multiscale and Phenomenological Elasto-Viscoplastic Grade 91 Material Models for Component-Scale Response
Many advanced nuclear reactor concepts currently being developed are targeting higher operating temperatures relative to the current fleet of light water nuclear reactors, for efficiency gains and other operational considerations. The design of high temperature structural components with reliable long-term operational performance will depend on material models that accurately capture the inelastic deformation mechanisms active in these environments. In this work, we perform a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis of two unified elasto-viscoplastic Grade 91 material models capable of capturing long term high temperature creep deformation. The first model is a phenomelogical material model from the Nuclear Engineering Material Library (NEML) developed at Argonne National Lab. The NEML model parameters and their uncertainty were fit to a range of Grade 91 experimental data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. The second model is a LAROMance data-driven surrogate material model developed at Los Alamos National Lab. The LAROMance model is fit to a large database of responses produced by a mechanistic crystal plasticity based polycrystal model. Parameters for the LAROMance surrogate material model reflect the pedigree of the Grade 91 microstructure. Both material models have been integrated into the Grizzly code, based on the open-source MOOSE multiphysics simulation framework, to simulate both the progression of aging mechanisms and the effects of that aging on nuclear power plant structures. Grizzly is used analyze a three-dimensional Grade 91 piping system to compare the long-term inelastic response predicted by these two fundamentally different models and assess the sensitivity of the material model input parameters on this quantity of interest.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models
Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
IDAES-PSE 2.6.0 Release
The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.6.0 Release Highlights Upcoming Changes IDAES will be switching to the new Pyomo solver interface in the next release. Whilst this will hopefully be a smooth transition for most users, there are a few important changes to be aware of. The new solver interface uses a different version of the IPOPT writer (“ipopt_v2”) and thus any custom configuration options you might have set for IPOPT will not carry over and will need to be reset. By default, the new Pyomo linear presolver will be activated with ipopt_v2. Whilst are working to identify any bugs in the presolver, it is possible that some edge cases will remain. IDAES will begin deploying a new set of scaling tools and APIs over the next few releases that make use of the new solver writers. The old scaling tools and APIs will remain for backward compatibility but will begin to be deprecated. New Models, Tools and Features New Intersphinx extension automatically linking Jupyter notebook examples to project documentation New end-to-end diagnostics example demonstrated on a real problem New complementarity formulation for VLE with cubic equations of state, backward compatibility for old formulation New solver interface with presolve (ipopt_v2) in support of upcoming changes to the initialization and APIs methods, with default set to ipopt to maintain backwards compatibility; this will deprecate once all examples have been updated New forecaster and parameterized bidder methods within grid integration library Updated surrogates API and examples to support Keras 3, with backwards compatibility for older formats such as TensorFlow SavedModel (TFSM) Updated costing base dictionary to include the 2023 cost year index value Updated ProcessBlock to include information on the constructing block class Updated Flowsheet Visualizer to allow visualize() method to return value and functions Bug Fixes Fixed bug in the Modular Property Framework that would cause errors when trying to use phase-based material balances with phase equilibria. Fixed bug in Modular Properties Framework that caused errors when initializing models with non-vapor-liquid phase equilibria. Fixed typos flagged by June update to crate-ci/typos and removed DMF-related exceptions Minor corrections of units of measurement handling in power plant waste/transport costing expressions, control volume material holdup expressions, and BTX property package parameters Fixed throwing >7500 numpy deprecation warnings by replacing scalar value assignment with element extraction and item iteration calls Testing and Robustness Migrated slow tests (>10s) to integration, impacting test coverage but also yielding a nearly 30% decrease in local test runtime Pinned pint to avoid issues with older supported Python versions Pinned codecov versions to avoid tokenless upload behavior with latest version Bumped extensions to version 3.4.2 to allow pointing to non-standard install location Deprecations and Removals Python 3.8 is no longer supported. The supported Python versions are 3.9 through 3.12 The Data Management Framework (DMF) is no longer supported. Importing idaes.core.dmf will cause a deprecation warning to be displayed until the next release The SOFC Keras surrogates have been removed. The current version of the SOFC surrogate model in the examples repository is a PySMO Kriging model.
AS↗
Uncertainty-Proof Hosting Capacity with Surrogate Affine Policy
Physical constraints must be enforced when dis-tributed energy resources, such as PV, are integrated into distribution network. Hosting capacity (HC) is thus introduced to define the maximum renewable that distribution system can accommodate. When the grid is further pushed towards low-carbon, many research efforts are devoted to increasing HC. Security and cost-efficiency become even more important in determining HC. This work proposes an uncertainty-proof HC with surrogate affine policy. Flexible resources are leveraged to increase HC. We propose a novel hybrid two-stage AC model with variable uncertainty set. An iterative algorithm is designed to solve the problem. The proposed model and solution approach are validated in modified 141-node feeders, and HC performance is also analyzed.
hosting capacity↗
Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview
This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required
critical minerals and materials↗
APOLLO: a facility-scale differentiable virtual accelerator for Fermilab
As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or yield additional insights like gradients. The FAST/IOTA facility has been working on implementing and experimentally validating an end-to-end digital twin that is both fast and gradient-aware, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. Our framework integrates physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation through a set of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections. To reproduce device inputs and outputs, system state is exposed as a deterministic discrete event simulator. Because Fermilab is undergoing control system transition, both EPICS and ACNET frontends are supported. Recently, we have begun transitioning to a new community lattice standard, PALS, as well as developing standardized infrastructure for data ingest and normalization to prepare for model calibration during FAST proton injector commissioning. We discuss implementation details as well as challenges, and future plans to extend modelling to main complex proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.
Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗