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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Triiodide Attacks the Organic Cation in Hybrid Lead Halide Perovskites: Mechanism and Suppression

Molecular I 2 can be produced from iodide-based lead perovskites under thermal stress; triiodide, I 3 − , is formed from this I 2 and I − . Triiodide attacks protic cation MA + - or FA + -based lead halide perovskites (MA + , methylammonium; FA + , formamidinium) as explicated through solution-based nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies: triiodide has strong hydrogen-bonding affinity for MA + or FA + , which leads to their deprotonation and perovskite decomposition. Triiodide is a catalyst for this decomposition that can be obviated through perovskite surface treatment with thiol reducing agents. In contrast to methods using thiol incorporation into perovskite precursor solutions, no penetration of the thiol into the bulk perovskite is observed, yet its surface application stabilizes the perovskite against triiodide-mediated thermal stress. Thiol applied to the interface between FAPbI 3 and Spiro-OMeTAD (“Spiro”) prevents oxidized iodine species penetration into Spiro and thus preserves its hole-transport efficacy. Surface-applied thiol affects the perovskite work function; it ameliorates hole injection into the Spiro overlayer, thus improving device performance. It helps to increase interfacial adhesion (“wetting”): fewer voids are observed at the Spiro/perovskite interface if thiols are applied. Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) incorporating interfacial thiol treatment maintain over 80% of their initial power conversion efficiency (PCE) after 300 h of 85 °C thermal stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Behavior of Water Near Multimodal Chromatography Ligands and Its Consequences for Modulating Protein–Ligand Interactions

Multimodal chromatography is a powerful approach for purifying proteins that uses ligands containing multiple modes of interaction. Recent studies have shown that selectivity in multimodal chromatographic separations is a function of the ligand structure and geometry. Here, we performed molecular dynamics simulations to explore how the ligand structure and geometry affect ligand–water interactions and how these differences in solution affect the nature of protein–ligand interactions. Our investigation focused on three chromatography ligands: Capto MMC, Nuvia cPrime, and Prototype 4, a structural variant of Nuvia cPrime. First, the solvation characteristics of each ligand were quantified via three metrics: average water density, fluctuations, and residence time. We then explored how solvation was perturbed when the ligand was bound to the protein surface and found that the probability of the phenyl ring dewetting followed the order: Capto MMC > Prototype 4 > Nuvia cPrime. To explore how these differences in dewetting affect protein–ligand interactions, we calculated the probability of each ligand binding to different types of residues on the protein surface and found that the probability of binding to a hydrophobic residue followed the same order as the dewetting behavior. This study illustrates the role that wetting and dewetting play in modulating protein–ligand interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wet-radome attenuation in ARM cloud radars and its utilization in radar calibration using disdrometer measurements

Abstract. A relative calibration technique has been developed for the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Ka-band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZRs). This method uses the signal attenuation caused by water on the radome to estimate reflectivity factor (Ze) offsets. The wet-radome attenuation (WRA) is assumed to follow a log-linear relationship with rainfall rate during light and moderate rain, as measured by a collocated surface disdrometer. The technique has an uncertainty of approximately 3 dB, due to factors such as disdrometer measurement error, rain variability between radar and disdrometer sample volumes, and the fitting function's uncertainty for the WRA behavior. A practical advantage of this WRA-based approach to shorter-wavelength radar monitoring is that, while it requires a reference disdrometer, it proves feasible for a wider range of collocated disdrometer measurements compared to traditional direct disdrometer comparison at the onset of light rain. This technique thus offers a cost-effective monitoring tool for remote or long-term radar deployments. This calibration technique was applied during the ARM Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) from October 2021 through September 2022. The estimated Ze offsets were compared against traditional radar calibration and monitoring methods using available datasets from this campaign. Results show that the WRA-based offsets align closely with mean offsets found between cloud radars and from direct disdrometer comparison near the onset of rain, while also reflecting similar offset and campaign-long trends when compared to collocated, independently calibrated radar wind profilers. Nevertheless, overall, the KAZR Ze offsets estimated during TRACER remained stable at approximately 2 dB lower than the disdrometer estimates from the campaign start until the end of June 2022; afterward, the offsets increased to around 7 dB by the campaign's end. This increase is linked to a drop of about 1 dB in transmitter power toward the end of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new soil mixing layer model for simulating conservative solute loss from initially saturated soil to surface runoff

Surface water pollution due to solute loss from soil to surface runoff is a serious threat to the environment, and it is of great significance to predict the solute loss. While soil mixing layer theory has been widely used to predict the solute loss, it has been observed that the conventional soil mixing layer models with constant mixing layer depth underestimate solute concentration in surface runoff, and thus underestimate the solute loss after surface runoff starts. This study introduced a new soil mixing layer model with a new concept that the mixing layer depth increases downward with time after surface runoff occurs. This new concept was implemented by adding a mixing front between the soil mixing layer and its underlying soil layer, which is conceptually similar to the wetting front of soil infiltration given by the Green-Ampt equation. This is equivalent to treating the soil mixing layer as a deforming control volume. A mechanistic explanation for the new model was presented. This study also developed a closed form solution of the new model. The new model was evaluated by simulating five laboratory experiments conducted by two groups of researchers. The first two experiments have ponding water, and consider different drainage and runoff conditions at both early and late runoff times. The other three experiments do not have ponding water, and consider different infiltration conditions at the bottom of soil boxes. Simulation results of the five experiments show that the new model resolves the underestimation problem of conventional soil mixing layer models. The new model is subject to a total of six limits such as that the new model only considers conservative solute. Three limits are related to the assumptions used to derive the closed form solution, and they may be alleviated in a future research as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Promotion of oxygen reduction reaction on a double perovskite electrode by a water-induced surface modification

Highly efficient air electrodes are a key component of reversible fuel cells for energy storage and conversion; however, the development of efficient electrodes that are stable against water vapor remains a grand challenge. Here we report an air–electrode, composed of double perovskite material PrBa 0.8 Ca 0.2 Co 2 O 5+δ (PBCC) backbone coated with nanoparticles (NPs) of BaCoO 3-δ (BCO), that exhibits remarkable electrocatalytic activity for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) while maintaining excellent tolerance to water vapor. When tested in a symmetrical cell exposed to wet air with 3 vol% H 2 O at 750 °C, the electrode shows an area specific resistance of ~0.03 Ω cm 2 in an extended period of time. The performance enhancement is attributed mainly to the electrocatalytic activity of the BCO NPs dispersed on the surface of the porous PBCC electrode. Moreover, in situ Raman spectroscopy is used to probe reaction intermediates (e.g., oxygen species) on electrode surfaces, as the electrochemical properties of the electrodes are characterized under the same conditions. The direct correlation between surface chemistry and electrochemical behavior of an electrode is vital to gaining insight into the mechanisms of the electrocatalytic processes in fuel cells and electrolysers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quaternized chitosan as a biopolymer sanitizer for leafy vegetables: synthesis, characteristics, and traditional vs. dry nano-aerosol applications

A series of quaternary dimethyl-(alkyl)-ammonium chitosan derivatives (QACs) was synthesized and studied for physicochemical properties and bioactivity. The QACs tended to spontaneously self-assembly into nanoaggregates. Antimicrobial activity was examined in vitro on Gram-negative Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Gram-positive Listeria innocua (L. innocua) bacteria as well as phytopathogenic fungus Botrytis cinerea. The hexyl chain-substituted QAC-6 demonstrated the highest potency causing 3.0- and 4.5-log CFU mL-1 reduction of E. coli and L. innocua, respectively. QAC-6 was tested for antimicrobial activity on stainless steel coupons and fresh spinach leaves. A traditional ‘wet’ application (spray) and dry Engineered Water Nanostructure (EWNS) approach were used for spinach decontamination. With both approaches, significant reduction of microbial load on the treated produce was achieved. Finally, the wet application showed a greater reduction of microbial load, while the advantages of EWNS were reaching the antimicrobial effect with miniscule dose of active agent leaving treated surface visibly dry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of γ - ( U , Z r ) structural properties and its interfacial properties with liquid sodium using ab initio molecular dynamics

In this study, the elastic properties, structural parameters, sound velocity, and Debye temperature of γ–(U,Zr) were computed using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) at temperatures between 1000 K and 1400 K and for Zr content between 0 at. % and 100 at. %. UZr is used as a metallic fuel for Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). The study of the mechanical and thermal behavior of these alloys leads to a better data-informed fuel design. The bulk modulus, shear modulus, Young's modulus, and Poisson's ratio were calculated from the elastic constants and their dependence on Zr content and temperature was investigated, comparing the results with previous computational work and the available experimental data in the literature. Interfacial properties between UZr (up to 32 at. % which typically exists in nuclear fuel) and liquid sodium are also of interest due to the presence of a sodium bond between the fuel and the cladding in metallic nuclear fuel. The interfacial energy between γ–(U,Zr) and liquid sodium, the surface tension of liquid sodium, and the work of adhesion were computed at different temperatures and Zr concentrations. It was demonstrated that γ–(U,Zr) is completely wetted by liquid sodium at all the investigated temperatures and Zr concentrations. Finally, this work provides the basis for the determination of interfacial resistances in SFRs and their implementation into heat transfer fuel performance simulations, which will be the subject of future work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

On an Extensive Late Hydrologic Event in Gale Crater as Indicated by Water‐Rich Fracture Halos

Abstract We analyze spatially pervasive, light‐toned “halos” associated with fractures in a sedimentary unit (Stimson) of Gale crater, Mars, and report a similar network of halos discovered in a separate geologic group (Bradbury). Through a dedicated active neutron measurement campaign, we provide independent confirmation of the water‐rich nature of these features. Together with mineralogical and geochemical data, these features are consistent with abundant hydrated amorphous silica (opal‐A). We suggest that the mineral and amorphous assemblages are indicative of formation under low‐temperature and predominantly low‐pH conditions (passive silica enrichment) with minor contribution of silica (active silica enrichment) from adjacent units. We show that there is significant amorphous silica in the array of sedimentary rocks in Gale crater, allowing them to play a role in an active silica enrichment phase of halo formation. We suggest that the involved alteration event was short lived and our finding of vast halo networks in a distant, older unit implies a more vast network of hydrologic subsurface conduits than previously known. This relatively recent subsurface hydrologic system was present long after the transition from a warm and wet to a cold and dry Martian environment, extending the habitability conditions on Mars to an epoch that is generally considered not favorable for life on the surface. Finally, our bulk H quantification of these features, which ranges from ∼3–6 wt% H 2 O‐equivalent‐H, suggests that the amorphous material in halos hosts ample supplies of readily released water, making them a considerable resource at the otherwise dry Martian equator.

Gabriel, Travis S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stretching and Bending Moduli of Bilayer Films Inferred from Wrinkle Patterns

Wrinkling patterns were used to investigate the mechanical properties of thin poly­(styrene) (PS)/poly­(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) and PS/gold (Au) bilayer films. Films were floated on water with a water drop on the surface to induce wrinkling. The thicknesses and thickness ratios of the films were varied over a broad range. The PS/PMMA bilayer was chosen to provide a contrast in wetting properties, with equilibrium contact angles of θPMMA = 68° and θPS = 88° with water. The PS/Au bilayer was chosen to provide a large contrast in Young’s moduli, E Au = 72 GPa and E PS = 3.4 GPa. The stretching (Y) and bending (B) moduli of the bilayer films were obtained from measurements of the length and number of wrinkles in the wrinkle patterns. The experimentally derived values of Y and B were in reasonable agreement with the values computed from the bulk Young’s moduli and the thicknesses of the two components in the bilayer. The values of Y and B did not depend on which face of the film was exposed to the water droplet or bath when the capillary stresses were considered. Thus, finite size effects from the film thicknesses were unimportant over the range of thicknesses studied, and no relative displacement of the films was found, with the films remaining well-bonded even with deformation associated with wrinkling.

Chang, Jooyoung↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct Visualization of Laser-Induced Coalescence and Alloying of Au into Ag Nanowires

Noble metal nanocomposites with controlled morphology and composition have been largely useful in a wide variety of applications like catalysis, plasmonics, and biological applications. Herein, we show pulsed-laser-assisted fabrication of beaded Au-Ag nanowires with a variety of morphologies and compositions via coalescence and alloying of Au nanoparticles (NP) into a Ag nanowire (NW). Direct visualization of the evolution process with in situ laser heating transmission electron microscopy (ILH-TEM) leads to unambiguous insights into the mechanism of formation for the first time. Ag, being a soft material, melts at the surface to bridge the gap between the NP-NW, forming a cup-like morphology underneath the Au NP via capillary action. Progressive laser irradiation leads to wetting of the Au NP with Ag, forming an envelope around the NP. This is associated with the formation of a valley in Ag NW around the NP, which flattens gradually by partial embedding of the NP. Interdiffusion of Au into Ag and vice versa sets in at this stage, leading to the depletion of Au from the Au-rich NP region. Prolonged irradiation leads to gradual intermixing of Au-Ag forming beaded Au-doped Ag nanowires with homogeneous composition. Such a step-by-step understanding of the coalescence and alloying process has implications in nanowelding, which holds the future in designing efficient transparent conductors and printed electronics.

Isik, Tugba↗
DOE OSTI2024

Irreversible Catalyst Deactivation Mechanisms of PdO/γ-Al 2 O 3 Catalysts for Lean Methane Oxidation

PdO/γ-Al 2 O 3 catalysts suffer from gradual and irreversible catalyst deactivation under lean CH 4 oxidation conditions, especially in a wet feed. Here, time-resolved CO chemisorption DRIFTS measurements are conducted systematically on a series of PdO/γ-Al 2 O 3 catalysts to probe the surface reactivity of PdO nanoparticles after various in situ pretreatments. At 80 °C, CO barely adsorbs on fully oxidized PdO surfaces but interacts with coordinatively unsaturated Pd sites, causing gradual reduction of the PdO surfaces. This results in the formation of characteristic IR bands on various metallic Pd 0 sites. By monitoring and comparing the formation kinetics of these IR bands on samples before and after CH 4 oxidation, we theorize that the irreversible catalyst deactivation during CH 4 oxidation is caused by PdO surface reconstruction, in which coordinatively unsaturated Pd sites gradually become fully coordinated by oxygen. Effectively, the surface reconstruction leads to the formation of a passivation layer on the PdO nanoparticles, which hinders their ability in activating CH 4 , and hence the subsequent oxidation reaction. Temperature-programmed reduction with CO as the reductant (CO-TPR) reveals that the passivation layer formed during CH 4 oxidation is significant enough to increase the reduction temperature of PdO nanoparticles of the 3.0% PdO/γ-Al 2 O 3 samples, although such an effect is less obvious for the 0.4% PdO/γ-Al 2 O 3 samples. On the other hand, it is also discovered that the passivation layer is not completely inert. Under certain reaction conditions, with some being relatively mild, such as low-temperature CO oxidation in a net lean atmosphere and in the presence of H 2 O, the passivation layer can undergo structure change which results in regeneration or even activation of CH 4 oxidation activity of an already deactivated catalyst. Additionally, it is discovered that the fully coordinated Pd–O surface is a metastable phase under CH 4 oxidation conditions. In the presence of H 2 O and at ambient temperatures, surfaces with coordinatively unsaturated Pd sites are thermodynamically more favorable.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization and biofouling potential analysis of two cyanobacterial strains isolated from Cape Verde and Morocco

Abstract Cyanobacteria are new sources of value-added compounds but also ubiquitous and harmful microfoulers on marine biofouling. In this work, the isolation and identification of two cyanobacterial strains isolated from Cape Verde and Morocco, as well as their biofilm-forming ability on glass and Perspex under controlled hydrodynamic conditions, were performed. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that cyanobacterial strains isolated belong to Leptothoe and Jaaginema genera (Leptothoe sp. LEGE 181153 and Jaaginema sp. LEGE 191154). From quantitative and qualitative data of wet weight, chlorophyll a content and biofilm thickness obtained by optical coherence tomography, no significant differences were found in biofilms developed by the same cyanobacterial strain on different surfaces (glass and Perspex). However, the biofilm-forming potential of Leptothoe sp. LEGE 181153 proved to be higher compared with Jaaginema sp. LEGE 191154, particularly at the maturation stage of biofilm development. Three-dimensional biofilm images obtained from confocal laser scanning microscopy showed different patterns between both cyanobacterial strains and also among the two surfaces. Because standard methodologies to evaluate cyanobacterial biofilm formation, as well as two different optical imaging techniques, were used, this work also highlights the possibility of integrating different techniques to evaluate a complex phenomenon like cyanobacterial biofilm development.

Romeu, Maria J. (ORCID:0000000210945425)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of physical, chemical, and biological ageing on the mineralization of pine wood biochar by a Streptomyces isolate

If biochar is to be used for carbon (C) management, we must understand how weathering or ageing affects biochar C mineralization. Here, we incubated aged and unaged eastern white pine wood biochar produced at 350 and 550°C with a Streptomyces isolate, a putative biochar-decomposing microbe. Ageing was accelerated via three different processes, namely, (a) physical ageing–subjecting biochar to alternating freeze-thaw and wet-dry cycles, (b) chemical ageing–treating biochar with concentrated hydrogen peroxide and (c) biological ageing–incubating biochar in the presence of nutrients and microorganisms. Elemental composition and surface chemistry (Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy) of biochar samples were compared before and after ageing. Biochar C mineralization between ageing treatments was significantly different in the case of 350°C biochar ( p value = 0.03). Among the 350°C biochars, physical ageing resulted in the greatest increase (by 103%) in biochar C mineralization ( p value = 0.05). However, in the case of 550°C biochar, ageing did not result in a significant change in biochar C mineralization ( p value = 0.40). Biochar C mineralization was positively correlated with an increase in O/C ratio post-ageing ( r s = 0.86, p value = 0.01). In the case of 350°C biochar, surface oxidation during ageing enhanced biochar degradation by the isolate. For 550°C biochar, however, ageing did not significantly increase biochar C mineralization, likely due to high condensed aromatic C content and lower surface oxidation during ageing. The results from our study suggest that low temperature aged biochar is more susceptible to biological degradation by soil microbes. These findings have implications for the use of biochar for long term C storage in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compositions for carbon dioxide separation using steam regeneration, and method for preparing same

Compositions and methods of preparing the compositions are disclosed for sorbents and other surfaces that can adsorb and desorb carbon dioxide. A sorbent or surface can include a metal compound such as an alkali or alkaline earth compound and a support. The sorbent can be prepared by several methods, including an incipient wetness technique. The sorbents have a CO 2 adsorption and desorption profile. A sorbent having high levels of a metal compound and adsorbed CO 2 is disclosed.

Elliott, Jeannine Elizabeth↗
DOE OSTI2021

Historical global Earth System Model simulations with E3SM's dynamic root module

This data package contains global-scale Earth System Model simulations run with DOE's E3SM Model. The package includes one set of simulations run in the default configuration and a second set of simulations run with the dynamic root module enabled. These two datasets can be used to assess the impact that dynamic roots have on Land Surface fluxes such as carbon and water. The outputs are provided here on a 0.5 x 0.5 global grid at monthly resolution. The simulations were run with atmospheric forcing from the Global Soil Wetness Project. We provide specifically here Gross Primary Production, Transpiration, relative root fraction per soil layer as well as Air Temperature, Precipitation and all the parameterizations used for the simulations. Our purpose for generating and analyzing these simulations was to assess the role that root dynamics and foraging for water has in the recovery timescale of ecosystems following climate perturbation. All data provided are in the "netcdf" format using standard CF-1 (Climate and Forecast) Convention. The data are broken up into 20 year chunks to facilitate easier read-in. The data are all machine readable using various software platforms including Matlab, NCO, Panoply and GrADS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interannual variability of spring and summer monsoon growing season carbon exchange at a semiarid savanna over nearly two decades

Eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere energy, carbon, and water exchange now span multiple decades at some sites, supporting an improved understanding of flux interannual variability (IAV) and its ecophysiological and physical controls. Most eddy covariance IAV studies have focused on temperate forest ecosystems, where carbon fluxes are large and flux records are longest – but also where IAV is much lower than in dryland regions, which have been identified as an essential driver of the trend and variability in the global terrestrial carbon sink. In this study, we leveraged 19 years of continuous micrometeorological measurements at the AmeriFlux US-SRM mesquite savanna site in southern Arizona, USA to quantify the IAV, trends, and drivers of carbon fluxes during the distinct spring and summer growing seasons. We also assessed the ability of modern satellite and land surface models to capture the IAV of seasonal water and carbon fluxes. Annual net ecosystem production (NEP) was small and highly variable (23 +/- 64 gC m –2 yr –1 ). Precipitation and associated measures of water availability determined most of the variability in NEP, largely through their influence on annual and seasonal gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) as opposed to ecosystem respiration (ER). Root-zone soil moisture captured between 73% (spring) and 85% (summer) of GEP variability and between 73% (spring) and 58% (summer) of ER variability. Throughout the study period, soil moisture and greenness increased with associated increases in GEP, ER and NEP. These trends were strongly influenced by very productive and wet summer growing seasons during the last two years, which were characterized by abundant understory grass cover. Typically, less than half of the variability in growing season GEP and evapotranspiration was captured by satellite-based estimates and land surface model simulations with local site forcing and calibration, highlighting the ongoing utility of long-term datasets to support careful model testing and improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗