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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Effects of an Early-Time Impact Generated Vapor Blast in the Martian Atmosphere: Formation of High-Latitude Pedestal Craters

Following impact, vapor expansion creates an intense airblast that interacts with the ambient atmosphere. The resulting hemi-spherical shock wave leaves a signature on the surface that is dependent on initial atmospheric and surface conditions. Here we propose that the formation of pedestal craters (craters surrounded by an erosion-resistant pedestal) may be a direct consequence of extreme winds and elevated temperatures generated by such an impact-induced atmospheric blast. Pedestal craters, first recognized in Mariner 9 data, are a unique feature on Mars and likely a signature of near-surface volatiles. They are found at high latitudes (small pedestals, Amazonian to Late Hesperian in age) and in thick equatorial mantling deposits (larger pedestals, early Hesperian to Noachian in age). Previously suggested mechanisms for pedestal crater formation (e.g., wind: ejecta curtain vortices or vapor blast; and ejecta dust: armoring) do not provide a complete picture. The clear evidence for near-surface volatiles at high latitudes requires a re-evaluation of these alternative models. The results presented here suggest that a combined atmospheric blast/thermal model provides a plausible formation hypothesis.

Wrobel, K. E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Carbon Dioxide Using Structure Functions in Urban Areas: Insights for Future Active Remote CO2 Sensors

High resolution in-situ CO2 measurements were recorded onboard the NASA P-3B during the DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) Field Campaigns during July 2011 over Washington DC/Baltimore, MD; January-February 2013 over the San Joaquin Valley, CA; September 2013 over Houston, TX; and July-August 2014 over Denver, CO. Each of these campaigns have approximately two hundred vertical soundings of CO2 within the lower troposphere (surface to about 5 kilometers) at 6-8 different sites in each of the urban areas. In this study, we used structure function analysis, which is a useful way to quantify spatial and temporal variability, by displaying differences with average observations, to evaluate the variability of CO2 in the 0-2 kilometers range (representative of the planetary boundary layer). These results can then be used to provide guidance in the development of science requirements for the future ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons) mission to measure near-surface CO2 variability in different urban areas. We also compare the observed in-situ CO2 variability with the variability of the CO2 column-averaged optical depths in the 0-1 kilometer and 0-3.5 kilometers altitude ranges in the four geographically different urban areas, using vertical weighting functions for potential future ASCENDS lidar CO2 sensors operating in the 1.57 and 2.05 millimeter measurement regions. In addition to determining the natural variability of CO2 near the surface and in the column, radiocarbon method using continuous CO2 and CO measurements are used to examine the variation of emission quantification between anthropogenic and biogenic sources in the DC/Maryland urban site.

Choi, Yonghoon↗
NASA NTRS2011

Incorporating Ameriflux Data into LVT

This paper describes a new generic data reader that was developed in Fortran to handle the Ameriflux data for the LIS Verification Toolkit (LVT). Researchers at the Hydrological Sciences Branch of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center have created a high resolution land surface modeling and data assimilation system known as the Land Information System (LIS), which provides an infrastructure to integrate state-of-the-art land surface models, data assimilation algorithms, observations of land surface from satellite and remotely sensed platforms to provide estimates of land surface conditions such as soil moisture, evaporation, snowpack and runoff. These model predictions are typically evaluated by comparing them with data from observational networks. The observational data; however, are usually available in disparate data formats and require significant effort to process them into a structure amenable for use with the model data. The motivation to develop a uniform approach for land surface verification as a way to alleviate these processing efforts has led to the development of LVT which is designed to enable the rapid evaluation of land surface modeling and analysis products from LIS. LVT focuses on the use of observational datasets in their native format. As the formats of these datasets vary widely, a major part of LVT is creating programs to read and process the native datasets. The primary goal of this project is to enhance LVT capabilities by incorporating observational datasets from Ameriflux

Georgiev, Teodor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Brazing characteristics, microstructure, and wettability of laser powder bed fusion additive manufactured GRCop-84 compared to CuCrZr and OFC, and brazing to titanium-zirconium-molybdenum alloy limiters

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) of Glenn Research Copper 84 (GRCop-84), a Cr 2 Nb (8 at. % Cr, 4 at. % Nb) precipitation hardened alloy, produces a fully dense, high conductivity alloy with a yield strength of 500 MPa and ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of 740 MPa with 20% elongation; superior to other competing copper alloys. Braze wetting characteristics of GRCop-84 with Ag-Cu-X, and Au-Cu brazes were similar to CuCrZr, but less than oxygen free copper. No difference in wetting was observed between infill and surface contour areas in L-PBF GRCop-84. Wet sanding to 240 grit (R a =0.24 µm) was considered the optimal surface condition. Silver diffusing through GRCop-84 depleted Cr 2 Nb precipitates from the copper grain and deposited agglomerations of coarsened precipitates within silver-rich regions of intergranular diffusion once a density threshold was reached. Microstructure modification was minimized with 50Au-50Cu braze implying that silver caused precipitate coarsening and agglomeration, and not high temperature exposure. Coarsened precipitates were observed on the surface within braze pools implying a contribution to braze wetting. Palcusil-25, Ticusil, CuSil-ABA, and 50Au-50Cu brazes were suitable for brazing to unplated Titanium-Zirconium-Molybdenum (TZM), while sulfamate nickel plating to allows wetting with CuSil or other non-active brazes. Additionally, vacuum brazing techniques were developed to join a 1 mm thick layer of TZM to the front of additive manufactured GRCop-84 waveguides considering the brazing characteristics of both GRCop-84, TZM, and internal stress from the difference in coefficient in thermal expansion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1977

Application of LANDSAT MSS data to the study of oceanographical environment

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT MSS data of a three year time lapse indicate change of sea surface condition in Seto Inland Sea and coastal region. The red tide which formerly concentrated in the bay or inland sea now extends into an open sea. A small ocean vortex similar to mesoscale atmospheric vortex is revealed by the band 4 image of the satellite data. A manual photographic method applied to a single band image of MSS is effective in detecting sea surface pollution.

Maruyasu, T.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of NO2 Observations During DISCOVER-AQ and KORUS-AQ Field Campaigns

NASA’s Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ, conducted in 2011–2014) campaign in the United States and the joint NASA and National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) Korea–United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ, conducted in 2016) in South Korea were two field study programs that provided comprehensive, integrated data sets of airborne and surface observations of atmospheric constituents, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), with the goal of improving the interpretation of spaceborne remote sensing data. Various types of NO2 measurements were made, including in situ concentrations and column amounts of NO2 using ground- and aircraft-based instruments, while NO2 column amounts were being derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. This study takes advantage of these unique datasets by first evaluating in situ data taken from two different instruments on the same aircraft platform, comparing coincidently sampled profile-integrated columns from aircraft spirals with remotely sensed column observations from ground-based Pandora spectrometers, intercomparing column observations from the ground (Pandora), aircraft (in situ vertical spirals), and space (OMI), and evaluating NO2 simulations from coarse Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) and high-resolution regional models. We then use these data to interpret observed discrepancies due to differences in sampling and deficiencies in the data reduction process. Finally, we assess satellite retrieval sensitivity to observed and modeled a priori NO2 profiles. Contemporaneous measurements from two aircraft instruments that likely sample similar air masses generally agree very well but are also found to differ in integrated columns by up to 31.9 %. These show even larger differences with Pandora, reaching up to 53.9 %, potentially due to a combination of strong gradients in NO2 fields that could be missed by aircraft spirals and errors in the Pandora retrievals. OMI NO2 values are about a actor of 2 lower in these highly polluted environments due in part to inaccurate retrieval assumptions (e.g., a priori pro-files) but mostly to OMI’s large footprint (>312 km2).

Nitrogen dioxide↗
NASA NTRS2015

Estimation of Crop Gross Primary Production (GPP): Do Scaled (MODIS) Vegetation Indices Improve Performance? - 2

Satellite remote sensing estimates of Gross Primary Production (GPP) have routinely been made using spectral Vegetation Indices (VIs) over the past two decades. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), the green band Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVIgreen), and the green band Chlorophyll Index (CIgreen) have been employed to estimate GPP under the assumption that GPP is proportional to the product of VI and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) (where VI is one of four VIs: NDVI, EVI, WDRVIgreen, or CIgreen). However, the empirical regressions between VI*PAR and GPP measured locally at flux towers do not pass through the origin (i.e., the zero X-Y value for regressions). Therefore they are somewhat difficult to interpret and apply. This study investigates (1) what are the scaling factors and offsets (i.e., regression slopes and intercepts) between the fraction of PAR absorbed by chlorophyll of a canopy (fAPARchl) and the VIs, and (2) whether the scaled VIs developed in (1) can eliminate the deficiency and improve the accuracy of GPP estimates. Three AmeriFlux maize and soybean fields were selected for this study, two of which are irrigated and one is rainfed. The four VIs and fAPARchl of the fields were computed with the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images. The GPP estimation performance for the scaled VIs was compared to results obtained with the original VIs and evaluated with standard statistics: the coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of variation (CV). Overall, the scaled EVI obtained the best performance. The performance of the scaled NDVI, EVI and WDRVIgreen was improved across sites, crop types and soil/background wetness conditions. The scaled CIgreen did not improve results, compared to the original CIgreen. The scaled green band indices (WDRVIgreen, CIgreen) did not exhibit superior performance to either the scaled EVI or NDVI in estimating crop daily GPP at these agricultural fields. The scaled VIs are more physiologically meaningful than original un-scaled VIs, but scaling factors and offsets may vary across crop types and surface conditions.

Vegetation Index↗
DOE OSTI2020

A magma ocean origin to divergent redox evolutions of rocky planetary bodies and early atmospheres

Magma oceans were once ubiquitous in the early solar system, setting up the initial conditions for different evolutionary paths of planetary bodies. In particular, the redox conditions of magma oceans may have profound influence on the redox state of subsequently formed mantles and the overlying atmospheres. The relevant redox buffering reactions, however, remain poorly constrained. Using first-principles simulations combined with thermodynamic modeling, we show that magma oceans of Earth, Mars, and the Moon are likely characterized with a vertical gradient in oxygen fugacity with deeper magma oceans invoking more oxidizing surface conditions. This redox zonation may be the major cause for the Earth’s upper mantle being more oxidized than Mars’ and the Moon’s. These contrasting redox profiles also suggest that Earth’s early atmosphere was dominated by CO 2 and H 2 O, in contrast to those enriched in H 2 O and H 2 for Mars, and H 2 and CO for the Moon.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

On predicting contamination levels of HALOE optics aboard UARS using direct simulation Monte Carlo

A three-dimensional version of the direct simulation Monte Carlo method is adapted to assess the contamination environment surrounding a highly detailed model of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. Emphasis is placed on simulating a realistic, worst-case set of flowfield and surface conditions and geometric orientations in order to estimate an upper limit for the cumulative level of volatile organic molecular deposits at the aperture of the Halogen Occultation Experiment. Problems resolving species outgassing and vent flux rates that varied over many orders of magnitude were handled using species weighting factors. Results relating to contaminant cloud structure, cloud composition, and statistics of simulated molecules impinging on the target surface are presented, along with data related to code performance. Using procedures developed in standard contamination analyses, the cumulative level of volatile organic deposits on HALOE's aperture over the instrument's 35-month nominal data collection period is estimated to be about 2700A.

Woronowicz, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dynamic Fatigue of ULE Glass

Ultra Low Expansion (ULE) glass is used in a number of applications which require a low thermal expansion coefficient. One such application is telescope mirror elements. An allowable stress can be calculated for this material based upon modulus of rupture data; however, this does not take into account the problem of delayed failure. Delayed failure, due to stress corrosion can significantly shorten the lifetime of a glass article. Knowledge of the factors governing the rate of subcritical flaw growth in a given environment enables the development of relations between lifetime, applied stress and failure probability for the material under study. Dynamic fatigue is one method of obtaining the necessary information to develop these relationships. In this study, the dynamic fatigue method was used to construct time-to-failure diagrams for both 230/270 ground and optically polished samples. The grinding and polishing process reduces the surface flaw size and subsurface damage, and relieves residual stress by removing materials with successively smaller grinding media. This resulted in an increase in the strength of the optic during the grinding and polishing sequence. There was also an increase in the lifetime due to grinding and polishing. It was found that using the fatigue parameters determined from the 230/270 grit surface are not significantly different from the optically polished values. Although the lower bound of the polished samples is more conservative, neither time-to-failure curves lie beyond the upper or lower bound of the confidence limits. Therefore, designers preferring conservative limits could use samples without residual stress present (polished samples) to determine the fatigue parameters and inert Weibull parameters from samples with the service condition surface, to determine time-to-failure of the optical element.

Tucker, Dennis S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Space-based Ornithology-Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar Response to Luminosity Variations

The connection between solar luminosity and magnetic fields is now well-established. Magnetic fields under the guise of sunspots and faculae enhance or suppress heat transfer through the solar surface, leading to changes in the total solar luminosity. This raises the question of the effect that such surface heat transfer perturbations have on the internal structure of the sun. The problem has been considered previously by Foukal and Spruit. Here, researchers generalize the calculation of Spruit, removing the assumption of a constant heat diffusivity coefficient by treating the full mixing length heat transfer expression. Further, they treat the surface conditions in a simpler manner, and show that the previous conclusions of Foukal and Spruit are unaffected by these modifications. The model shows that following the application of a step function emissivity change: a fraction 1 - D(sub 0) of the luminosity change relaxes away after approx. 50 days. This corresponds to the thermal diffusion time across the convection zone, adjusting to a value in correspondence with the surface change. In other words, the whole convection zone feels the perturbation on this timescale. The remaining fraction relaxes away on a timescale of 10 to the 5th power years, corresponding to the convective layer radiating away enough energy so that it can adjust to its new adiabat. These are the same results arrived at by Spruit and Foukal. For variations of sigma on timescales of 10 to 200 years, then, the only important relaxation is the 50 day one. If the amplitude of this relaxation is small, the luminosity follows the sigma variation.

Arendt, S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Characterizing of a Mid-Latitude Ice-Rich Landing Site on Mars to Enable in Situ Habitability Studies

We suggest an ice-rich landing site at 188.5E 46.16N within Amazonis Planitia as a candidate location to support a Mars lander mission equipped to study past habitability and regions capable of preserving the physical and chemical signs of life and organic matter. Studies of the ice-rich subsurface on Mars are critical for several reasons. The subsurface environment provides protection from radiation to shield organic and biologic compounds from destruction. The ice-rich substrate is also ideal for preserving organic and biologic molecules and provides a source of H2O for biologic activity. Examination of martian ground ice can test several hypotheses such as: 1) whether ground ice supports habitable conditions, 2) that ground ice can preserve and accumulate organic compounds, and 3) that ice contains biomolecules evident of past or present biological activity on Mars. This Amazonis site, located near the successful Viking Lander 2, shows indirect evidence of subsurface ice (ubiquitous defined polygonal ground, gamma ray spectrometer hydrogen signature, and numerical modeling of ice stability) and direct evidence of exposed subsurface ice. This site also provides surface conditions favorable to a safe landing including no boulders, low rock density, minimal rough topography, and few craters.

Heldmann, J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Soil developments in polar deserts: Implications for exobiology and future Mars missions

Chemical alterations, weathering, and diagenesis of soil profiles from the dry valleys of Antarctica were studied as analogs of regolith development for the Martian regolith. Chemical weathering processes play an important part in soil development within the dry valleys of Antarctica. A suite of core samples were studied which were taken within the valley floors in addition to samples taken in the vicinity of evaporite and brine ponds. Analysis of water soluable cations and anions from core samples were performed along with petrographic analysis of selected samples. It was shown that ionic transport processes operate primarily above the permafrost zone. Abundances of the water soluable ions reflect the nature of secondary minerals produced by evaporation and weathering. Chloride, calcium, and sodium abundances for soils from the cores within the North and South Forks of Wright Valley, reflect the secondary mineralogy of the soil columns. Calculations for Na, Ca, and Cl abundances reflect the appearance of halite and antarcticite. In areas where excess Ca is present, X-ray diffraction studies show the presence of gypsum. It is well known that the Martian surface conditions may be favorable for chemical weathering. Primary silicates would be expected to be reactive with any ground water. It seems likely that Martian subsurface water is available to assist in the weathering of the primary minerals. Such weathering could result in the formation of clays, sulfates, carbonates, hydrates, halides, and zeolites. The dry valley cores have shown that they maybe excellent analogs to weathering processes on the near-surface of Mars. Since movement of water within the near-surface region clearly results in chemical weathering, leaching, and salt formation in the dry valleys, similar processes are probably operating within the Martian regolith.

Gibson, Everett K., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Analysis of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height During DISCOVER-AQ Baltimore–Washington, D.C., with Lidar and High-Resolution WRF Modeling

The daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL) was examined for the Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) Baltimore (Maryland)–Washington, D.C., campaign of July 2011 using PBL height (PBLH) retrievals from aerosol backscatter measurements from ground-based micropulse lidar (MPL), the NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar-1 (HSRL-1), and the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite. High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations with horizontal grid spacing of 1 km and different combinations of PBL schemes, urban parameterization, and sea surface temperature inputs were evaluated against PBLHs derived from lidars, ozonesondes, and radiosondes. MPL and WRF PBLHs depicted a growing PBL in the morning that reached a peak height by midafternoon. WRF PBLHs calculated from gridded output profiles generally showed more rapid growth and higher peak heights than did the MPLs, and all WRF–lidar differences were dependent on model configuration, PBLH calculation method, and synoptic conditions. At inland locations, WRF simulated an earlier descent of the PBL top in the afternoon relative to the MPL retrievals and radiosonde PBLHs. At Edgewood, Maryland, the influence of the Chesapeake Bay breeze on the PBLH was captured by both the ozonesonde and WRF data but generally not by the MPL PBLH retrievals because of generally weaker gradients in the aerosol backscatter profile and limited normalized relative backscatter data near the top height of the marine layer.

Hegarty, Jennifer D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Surface Characterization of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers by Picosecond Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Adhesive bonding of composite materials requires reliable monitoring and detection of surface contaminants as part of a vigorous quality control process to assure robust and durable bonded structures. Surface treatment and effective monitoring prior to bonding are essential in order to obtain a surface which is free from contaminants that may lead to inferior bond quality. In this study, the focus is to advance the laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique by using pulse energies below 100 μJ (μLIBS) for the detection of low levels of silicone contaminants in carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites. Various CFRP surface conditions were investigated by LIBS using ∼10 ps, 355 nm laser pulses with pulse energies below 30 μJ. Time-resolved analysis was conducted to optimize the gate delay and gate width for the detection of the C I emission line at 247.9 nm to monitor the epoxy resin matrix of CFRP composites and the Si I emission line at 288.2 nm for detection of silicone contaminants in CFRP. To study the surface sensitivity to silicone contamination, CFRP surfaces were coated with polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), the active ingredient in many mold release agents. The presence of PDMS was studied by inspecting the Si I emission lines at 251.6 nm and 288.2 nm. The measured PDMS areal densities ranged from 0.15 to 2 μg/cm(sup 2). LIBS measurements were performed before and after laser surface ablation. The results demonstrate the successful detection of PDMS thin layers on CFRP using picosecond μLIBS.

Rodolfo Ledesma↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗