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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21

Comparison of the Transcriptome Response within the Swine Tracheobronchial Lymphnode Following Infection with PRRSV, PCV-2 or IAV-S.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is a major respiratory pathogen of swine that has become extremely costly to the swine industry worldwide, often causing losses in production and animal life due to their ease of spread. However, the intracellular changes that occur in pigs following viral respiratory infections are still scantily understood for PRRSV, as well as other viral respiratory infections. The aim of this study was to acquire a better understanding of the PRRS disease by comparing gene expression changes that occur in tracheobronchial lymph nodes (TBLN) of pigs infected with either porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV-2), or swine influenza A virus (IAV-S) infections. The study identified and compared gene expression changes in the TBLN of 80 pigs following infection by PRRSV, PCV-2, IAV-S, or sham inoculation. Total RNA was pooled for each group and time-point (1, 3, 6, and 14 dpi) to make 16 libraries—analyses are by Digital Gene Expression Tag Profiling (DGETP). The data underwent standard filtering to generate a list of sequence tag raw counts that were then analyzed using multidimensional and differential expression statistical tests. The results showed that PRRSV, IAV-S and PCV-2 viral infections followed a clinical course in the pigs typical of experimental infection of young pigs with these viruses. Gene expression results echoed this course, as well as uncovered genes related to intersecting and unique host immune responses to the three viruses. By testing and observing the host response to other respiratory viruses, our study has elucidated similarities and differences that can assist in the development of vaccines and therapeutics that shorten or prevent a chronic PRRSV infection.

Miller↗

Constraining and Characterizing the Size of Atmospheric Rivers: A Perspective Independent From the Detection Algorithm

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (AR) are large and narrow filaments of poleward horizontal water vapor transport. Because of its direct relationship with horizontal vapor transport, extreme precipitation, and overall AR impacts over land, the AR size is an important characteristic that needs to be better understood. Current AR detection and tracking algorithms have resulted in large uncertainty in estimating AR sizes, with areas varying over several orders of magnitude among different detection methods. We develop and implement five independent size estimation methods to characterize the size of ARs that make landfall over the west coast of North America in the 1980–2017 period and reduce the range of size estimation from ARTMIP. ARs that originate in the Northwest Pacific (WP) (100°−180°E) have larger sizes and are more zonally oriented than those from the Northeast Pacific (EP) (180°−240°E). ARs become smaller through their life cycle, mainly due to reductions in their width. They also become more meridionally oriented toward the end of their life cycle. Overall, the size estimation methods proposed in this study provide a range of AR areas (between 7 × 10 11 and 10 13 m 2 ), that is, several orders of magnitude narrower than current methods estimation. This methodology can provide statistical constraints in size and geometry for the AR detection and tracking algorithms, and an objective insight for future studies about AR size changes under different climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

The Evolution of AGN Activity in Brightest Cluster Galaxies

We present the results of an analysis of Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) observations of the full 2500 deg 2 South Pole Telescope (SPT)-Sunyaev–Zel'dovich cluster sample. We describe a process for identifying active galactic nuclei (AGN) in brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) based on WISE mid-IR color and redshift. Applying this technique to the BCGs of the SPT-SZ sample, we calculate the AGN-hosting BCG fraction, which is defined as the fraction of BCGs hosting bright central AGNs over all possible BCGs. Assuming an evolving single-burst stellar population model, we find statistically significant evidence (>99.9%) for a mid-IR excess at high redshift compared to low redshift, suggesting that the fraction of AGN-hosting BCGs increases with redshift over the range of 0 < z < 1.3. The best-fit redshift trend of the AGN-hosting BCG fraction has the form (1 + z) 4.1±1.0 . These results are consistent with previous studies in galaxy clusters as well as as in field galaxies. One way to explain this result is that member galaxies at high redshift tend to have more cold gas. While BCGs in nearby galaxy clusters grow mostly by dry mergers with cluster members, leading to no increase in AGN activity, BCGs at high redshift could primarily merge with gas-rich satellites, providing fuel for feeding AGNs. If this observed increase in AGN activity is linked to gas-rich mergers rather than ICM cooling, we would expect to see an increase in scatter in the P cav versus L cool relation at z > 1. Last, this work confirms that the runaway cooling phase, as predicted by the classical cooling-flow model, in the Phoenix cluster is extremely rare and most BCGs have low (relative to Eddington) black hole accretion rates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Examining the changes in the spatial manifestation and the rate of arrival of large tornado outbreaks

This study presents an assessment of the spatial and temporal characteristics of large tornado outbreak (LTOs) days, in which several counties were impacted by tornadoes rated F2(EF2) or greater on the Fujita (Enhanced Fujita) scale in one day. A statistical evaluation of changes in the LTO clusters for two periods, 1950–1980 and 1989–2019, has been performed. There is a geographical shift of the nucleus (central impact location) towards the southeast United States. This spatial shift is also accompanied by reduced spatial variance, suggesting LTOs have become less dispersed (or more localized) in the recent period. The overall inter-arrival rate of LTOs, and how it changed during successive 31-year climatological blocks between 1950–2019 was investigated using an exponential probability model. The arrival rate has changed from 124 days during 1950–1980 to 164 days during 1977–2007 and remained relatively constant during later periods, indicating that LTOs are becoming less frequent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The rate of extreme coronal line emitting galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and their relation to tidal disruption events

High-ionization iron coronal lines (CLs) are a rare phenomenon observed in galaxy and quasi-stellar object spectra that are thought to be created by high-energy emission from active galactic nuclei and certain types of transients. In cases known as extreme coronal line emitting galaxies (ECLEs), these CLs are strong and fade away on a time-scale of years. The most likely progenitors of these variable CLs are tidal disruption events (TDEs), which produce sufficient high-energy emission to create and sustain the CLs over these time-scales. To test the possible connection between ECLEs and TDEs, we present the most complete variable ECLE rate calculation to date and compare the results to TDE rates from the literature. To achieve this, we search for ECLEs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We detect sufficiently strong CLs in 16 galaxies, more than doubling the number previously found in SDSS. Using follow-up spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer mid-infrared observations, and Liverpool Telescope optical photometry, we find that none of the nine new ECLEs evolve in a manner consistent with that of the five previously discovered variable ECLEs. Using this sample of five variable ECLEs, we calculate the galaxy-normalized rate of variable ECLEs in SDSS to be $R_\mathrm{G}=3.6~^{+2.6}_{-1.8}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+5.1}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-6}~\mathrm{galaxy}^{-1}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. The mass-normalized rate is $R_\mathrm{M}=3.1~^{+2.3}_{-1.5}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+4.4}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-17}~\mathrm{M_\odot ^{-1}}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ and the volumetric rate is $R_\mathrm{V}=7~^{+20}_{-5}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+10}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-9}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. Our rates are one to two orders of magnitude lower than TDE rates from the literature, which suggests that only 10–40 per cent of all TDEs produce variable ECLEs. Additional uncertainties in the rates arising from the structure of the interstellar medium have yet to be included.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Accelerating phase field simulations through a hybrid adaptive Fourier neural operator with U-net backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For one such process as liquid-metal dealloying (LMD), phase field models have been developed to understand the mechanisms leading to complex morphologies. However, the LMD governing equations in these models often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, numerical stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely refined time step size (on the order of 10 -12 s or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose a U-shaped adaptive Fourier neural operator (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) based model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics of mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g., the deformation of the liquid-metal interface, lost metal, etc.) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Most notably, our model reproduces the key microstructure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on par with the high-fidelity numerical solver, while achieving a significant 11, 200 × speed-up on a high-resolution grid when comparing the computational expense per time step. Finally, we also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leaps in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mesoscopic-scale complexity in macroscopically-uniform plastic flow of an Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi high-entropy alloy

The concept of a smooth and homogeneous plastic flow of solids is nowadays constantly challenged by various observations of the self-organization of crystal defects on mesoscopic scales pertaining, e.g., to acoustic emission or the evolution of the local strain field. Such investigations would be of particular interest for High-Entropy Alloys (HEAs) characterized by extremely complex microstructures. However, the complexity of their deformation has been only studied in relation to the jerky flow. The present work explores a mesoscale complexity of the macroscopically-smooth plastic flow of an Al 0.3 CoCrFeNi alloy. Here, an inclusive approach involving various experimental methods and complementary nonlinear analyses allowed to reveal transitions between distinct dynamical regimes, which may be assimilated with noises of different colors, in particular the blue noise that is rarely observed in complex systems, and various kinds of reddened behavior. Such findings provide significant new insights into the micro/macro transition in the deformation behavior of HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Dark Energy Spectrographic Instrument (DESI) Guide-Focus Assembly

The specific research of the DESI project is to study in detail the expansion history of the Universe over the past 10 billion years. In order to do this, the project designed, fabricated, tested and commissioned the DESI instrument which has been deployed at the Mayall Telescope at the Kitt Peak National Observatory near Tucson, Arizona. The DESI project was conducted by approximately 30 US and foreign national laboratories. Our CRADA with the The Institut de Física d’Altes Energies (IFAE) in Barcelona (Spain) involved both research planning for eventual observing on the DESI telescope; and in providing hardware jointly designed by LBNL and IFAE; ten guide and focus sensor systems (GFAs) that either provide feedback to the Mayall telescope tracking system or provide focus position information to the DESI corrector hexapod. The key major goals of this CRADA were achieved.For survey planning, Drs. Fernandez, Fosalba, Garcia-Bellido, and Gaztañaga were all important contributors to the working groups to which they were assigned. Their application of redshift techniques, development of simulations to support target selection, exploration of the use of alternative observables to extract cosmological information like AP and void statistics, and the use of PAU data to assist in the optimization of targeting selections have been vital in the early planning for targets during commissioning. The major role in the project involved Drs. Castander, Miquel, Padilla, and Sànchez. They were all directly involved with the development of the Guide-Focus Assembly (GFA) hardware, software and filter validation. In order to accomplish the goals of the DESI Project, the Mayall telescope must track DESI targeted galaxies for up to 15 minutes and the DESI corrector must be repositioned on its hexapod system for different telescope orientations. The guide and focus assemblies (GFA) provide in this information. There are ten GFA modules on the focal plane, six providing tracking information and four providing focus information. A common GFA design supports both functions by a simple switching of its operating mode. IFAE designed, fabricated, tested and delivered twelve GFAs. Once received at LBNL, the GFAs were integrated with the focal plane. This was an iterative process as the GFA’s were delivered as they were made. Our working relationship with the IFAE scientists and engineers was remarkable given the distance and time zone issues. The GFAs have performed extremely well during the commissioning phase of the instrument.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical model of the stimulated forward Brillouin scattering driven by a randomized laser beam in plasma

The modeling of a spatially incoherent laser beam remains a central problem of the parametric instabilities in the context of inertial confinement fusion. This letter gives a simplified and comprehensive overview of the recent analytical developments regarding the modeling of these laser beams and a comparison with a dedicated experiment. Our model accounts for the first time for the statistical standard deviation of the gain and accurately captures the entanglement between wave mixing processes and the speckle correlations thus resolving the longstanding contradictions between the random phase approximation and the model of independent speckles. It is successfully compared to a recent laser beam spray experiment and the associated paraxial simulations, demonstrating that backscattering predictions require accounting for the beam spray. Furthermore, our framework thus provides a way to evaluate and guide the analysis of parametric instabilities in high laser energy experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning

Stream temperature (Ts) is an important water quality parameter that affects ecosystem health and human water use for beneficial purposes. Accurate Ts predictions at different spatial and temporal scales can inform water management decisions that account for the effects of changing climate and extreme events. In particular, widespread predictions of Ts in unmonitored stream reaches can enable decision makers to be responsive to changes caused by unforeseen disturbances. In this study, we demonstrate the use of classical machine learning (ML) models, support vector regression and gradient boosted trees (XGBoost), for monthly Ts predictions in 78 pristine and human-impacted catchments of the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Northwest hydrologic regions spanning different geologies, climate, and land use. The ML models were trained using long-term monitoring data from 1980–2020 for three scenarios: (1) temporal predictions at a single site, (2) temporal predictions for multiple sites within a region, and (3) spatiotemporal predictions in unmonitored basins (PUB). In the first two scenarios, the ML models predicted Ts with median root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 0.69–0.84 °C and 0.92–1.02 °C across different model types for the temporal predictions at single and multiple sites respectively. For the PUB scenario, we used a bootstrap aggregation approach using models trained with different subsets of data, for which an ensemble XGBoost implementation outperformed all other modeling configurations (median RMSE 0.62 °C).The ML models improved median monthly Ts estimates compared to baseline statistical multi-linear regression models by 15–48% depending on the site and scenario. Air temperature was found to be the primary driver of monthly Ts for all sites, with secondary influence of month of the year (seasonality) and solar radiation, while discharge was a significant predictor at only 10 sites. The predictive performance of the ML models was robust to configuration changes in model setup and inputs, but was influenced by the distance to the nearest dam with RMSE <1 °C at sites situated greater than 16 and 44 km from a dam for the temporal single site and regional scenarios, and over 1.4 km from a dam for the PUB scenario. Our results show that classical ML models with solely meteorological inputs can be used for spatial and temporal predictions of monthly Ts in pristine and managed basins with reasonable (<1 °C) accuracy for most locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of sample size on the maximum value distribution of fatigue driving forces in metals and alloys

An analytical framework is presented to predict the effects of sample size on the maximum value distribution (MVD) of the driving forces for fatigue crack formation in metals and alloys. The distribution of the maximum driving force for fatigue crack formation over the domain follows the generalized extreme value theory in the limit as the domain size increases to infinity. Here, a simulation-based analysis of microstructure influences on fatigue resistance for polycrystalline metals and alloys is very costly, and reaching those limits is intractable. This work models the MVD of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs), which serve as surrogate measures for the driving force for fatigue crack formation, at finite sample sizes prior to their convergence to a limiting extreme value distribution. Large-scale crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) simulations of FCC Al 7075-T6 with microstructure realizations of various sizes are incorporated to calibrate and evaluate the developed framework, and a total of ∼6.5 million grains of Al 7075-T6 are examined. The calibrated analytical solution agrees well with the brute force Monte Carlo simulation results extracted from the CPFE simulations. Furthermore, the developed formulation can predict the MVD of FIPs for different sample sizes using a size-dependent parameter, and it is capable of accurately extrapolating the MVD of FIPs for much larger microstructure sample sizes than the size used for its calibration.

Crystal plasticity↗

Approach to Quality Assurance for Complex Environmental Modeling - 20407

A strong Quality Assurance (QA) program for complex environmental modeling is essential for regulatory and public acceptance and trust, but it does not have to be onerous. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) has developed a strong QA program that improves transparency, traceability, reproducibility, and therefore, defensibility and trust. Neptune's QA program has evolved over the past 27 years, transitioning from an ad hoc QA program, to a program that is currently Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 (NQA-1) compliant, and will soon be NQA-1/DOE approved for DOE EM modeling work. In addition, Neptune is a qualified laboratory assessor and qualified auditor for reference materials, a proficiency testing provider, and fully complies with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) QA program. Neptune's President and CEO, Kelly Black, was recently named the Chairperson of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Technical Committee 69, Application of Statistical Methods. A strong QA program has been developed for Neptune's radiological performance assessment (PA) program. Although pieces of their QA program are currently in development, their current program includes document control using Subversion, issue tracking and work flow tracking using JIRA, and transparency and traceability via a system of 'calc sheets' for documentation of all data analysis and modeling combined with 'check print' documentation of QA checking, and rigorous model testing and configuration control. All work is reviewed by an independent subject matter expert who is not associated with the collection and assembly of information, for an internal peer review. The program is enforced with a handful of Standard Operation Procedures (SOPs), Work Instructions, QA Project Plans (QAPPs), and Quality Management Plans (QMPs) that are updated frequently, with required annual training and acknowledgment. In addition, effective communication of modeling approaches and results to clients and stakeholders are integral to their QA program. Many of their models are built using the GoldSim modeling platform, for which their models are well-known for their level of transparency, documentation, and QA traceability. This level of QA is also applied to their process-level models. Neptune has taken some lessons learned from the extremely rigorous QA program required for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP), and imposed the YMP requirements of complete traceability, transparency, and reproducibility, but avoided the inflexibility of a QA program that likely contributed to the suspect e-mails in 2005 that resulted in loss of trust in the YMP, and in nuclear waste disposal (and nuclear power) in general. There are far too many examples of loss of public trust due to poor QA that could have been easily avoided with a simple and straight-forward QA program combined with stakeholder engagement. The purpose of this paper is to share features of Neptune's Radiological Performance Assessment program QA program, and some of their QA related lessons learned over the past 27 years of QA for complex environmental modeling. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulating the filamentation of smoothed laser beams with three-dimensional nonlinear dynamics

In a plasma, the ponderomotive force of an inhomogeneous electromagnetic field expels plasma from regions of high intensity. When a laser propagates through a plasma, this force creates density wells that subsequently modify the index of refraction. The beam refracts and focuses into these wells and may filament. In extreme cases, the laser beam will spray due to increasing angular divergence of the beam. The threshold for ponderomotive self-focusing is well established for isolated laser hotspots or speckles. Here, we define a practical threshold for characterizing the filamentation of thousands of speckles that are found in the focal plane of high-power laser beams spatially smoothed with random phase plates as used at high energy and power laser facilities studying inertial confinement fusion. This threshold is tested against three-dimensional simulations of speckled laser light propagating through plasma. Four metrics are applied to assess filamentation: the fraction of power above five times the average intensity, an effective f-number, the mean-squared perpendicular wavenumber, and the fraction of rarefied density with deviation from the initial density exceeding | δn/ n| = 0.1. The speckled beams studied are generated by random phase plates, both with and without additional polarization smoothing, in a parameter regime of relevance to indirect drive experiments. While filamentation has been discussed extensively in the literature, we believe this to be the first published simulation study with three-dimensional nonlinear hydrodynamics that addresses the onset threshold of ponderomotive filamentation and establishes the lengths and time scales necessary to reach a statistical steady state.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sonic horizons and causality in phase transition dynamics

A system gradually driven through a symmetry-breaking phase transition is subject to the Kibble-Zurek mechanism (KZM). As a consequence of the critical slowing down, its state cannot follow local equilibrium, and its evolution becomes nonadiabatic near the critical point. In the simplest approximation, that stage can be regarded as an “impulse” where the state of the system remains unchanged. It leads to the correct KZM scaling laws. However, such a “freeze-out” might suggest that the coherence length of the nascent order parameter remains unchanged as the critical region is traversed. By contrast, the original causality-based discussion emphasized the role of the sonic horizon: Domains of the broken symmetry phase can expand with a velocity limited by the speed of the relevant sound. This effect was demonstrated in the quantum Ising chain where the dynamical exponent z = 1 and quasiparticles excited by the transition have a fixed speed of sound. To elucidate the role of the sonic horizon, in this paper we study two systems with z > 1 where the speed of sound is no longer fixed, and the fastest excited quasiparticles set the size of the sonic horizon. Their effective speed decays with increasing transition time. In the extreme case, the dynamical exponent z can diverge such as in the Griffiths region of the random Ising chain where the localization of excited quasiparticles freezes the growth of the correlation range when the critical region is traversed. Of particular interest is an example with z < 1 , the long-range extended Ising chain, where there is no upper limit to the velocity of excited quasiparticles with small momenta. Initially, the power-law tail of the correlation function grows adiabatically, but in the nonadiabatic stage it lags behind the adiabatic evolution.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A Gaussian process autoregressive model capturing microstructure evolution paths in a Ni–Mo–Nb alloy

Additive manufacturing is increasingly being employed to produce components of complex geometries in structural alloys because of the expected energy savings associated with the near-net-shape capability and the ability to build in novel internal features that are not possible with many conventional manufacturing approaches. However, because of the extreme thermal conditions encountered, the non-equilibrium microstructures produced during powder bed-based additive manufacturing processes must be subjected to custom post-heat treatment processes to recover the target mechanical properties. Phase-field models and simulation techniques have matured to a state where the microstructure evolution paths, and the morphologies of the resulting precipitate phases can be predicted reasonably accurately, considering alloy-specific thermodynamic and kinetic aspects of the nucleation and growth processes. However, phase-field simulations are computationally intensive, which precludes the ability to apply the simulations directly to the length scale of the entire component. Therefore, it is highly desirable to develop low-computational-cost surrogate models that effectively capture the physics at the microstructural length scale, while facilitating the design of optimized processing conditions resulting in location-specific targeted microstructures at the component scale. The work presented here demonstrates the application of the materials knowledge system framework to develop a surrogate model that effectively captures the microstructural path during annealing of a Ni–Mo–Nb alloy containing different Mo and Nb compositions known to segregate during solidification under additive manufacturing conditions. Specifically, the surrogate model built in this work is based on a Gaussian process autoregressive model informed by statistical representation of simulated microstructures using two-point correlations and dimensionality reduction through principal component analysis. In conclusion, this surrogate model is shown to capture the bifurcation of the microstructural path during precipitation, which yields a microstructure dominated by the $\gamma^{\prime\prime}$ phase at high Nb concentrations and the $\delta$ phase at low Nb concentrations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The critical role of synthesis conditions on small polaron carrier concentrations in hematite—A first-principles study

Achieving highly efficient energy conversion with transition metal oxides necessitates overcoming conductivity limitations due to the formation of small polarons. Detailed understanding of the interplay among intrinsic defects, dopants, and electron polarons can help devise strategies for achieving higher carrier concentrations, therefore improving carrier conductivity. This work employs first-principles calculations to reliably predict electron polaron concentrations in a prominent polaronic oxide, hematite (Fe 2 O 3 ), by resolving interactions between charged defects and electron polarons and keeping charge neutrality condition among all charged species. This work addresses that both V O and Fe i can be primary donors in undoped hematite depending on the synthesis conditions, such as synthesis temperature and oxygen partial pressure, despite the fact that V O owns an extremely high ionization energy compared to k B T. Furthermore, from calculations of a plethora of n-type dopants (group IV and V elements), we find that Ti, Ge, Sb, and Nb are able to raise electron polaron concentrations in hematite significantly without considering dopant clustering. However, the magnitude of electron polaron concentration increase would be smaller if the dopant has a high tendency of clustering, such as Ti. Here we reveal the critical role of synthesis conditions on tuning electron polaron concentrations of both undoped and doped hematite. Our theoretical analysis provides important insights and general design principles for engineering more conductive polaronic oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗