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NASA NTRS1977

Statistical equilibrium in cometary C2. I

Swan-band emission from the C2 molecule provides important information for a study of the physical processes occurring in comets. It is, therefore, a disturbing factor that many quantitative Swan-band observations are in clear contradiction of predictions of resonance fluorescence excitation of the Swan bands. A description is presented of an investigation involving an application of resonance fluorescence theory to C2. The investigation takes into account all important electronic transitions which determine the population distribution of the lowest energy states. It is found that the previous discrepancy for the brighter band sequences disappears.

Swamy, K. S. K.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Statistical analysis of the modal properties of large structural systems.

A theory is developed to predict eigenvalue and eigenvector uncertainty in large dynamic models. The uncertainty is based on physical property uncertainty and should not be confused with numerical roundoff, although the method can be extended to include the latter. The theory, when implemented on a computer, is used to analyze the uncertainties in frequencies and mode shapes based on uncertainties in mass, stiffness, modulus of elasticity, etc. The method incorporates a linear statistical model which is quite adequate for handling property uncertainties of 10% or more. The model is not limited to small systems but uses certain statistical assumptions as well as selective matrix manipulations to keep the size of all matrix operations to within the number of degrees of freedom of the system. Examples are given for two longitudinal vibration problems, and the results are supported by a Monte Carlo analysis.

Collins, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation

Precipitation assimilation poses a special challenge in that the forward model for rain in a global forecast system is based on parameterized physics, which can have large systematic errors that must be rectified to use precipitation data effectively within a standard statistical analysis framework. We examine some key issues in precipitation assimilation and describe several exploratory studies in assimilating rainfall and latent heating information in NASA's global data assimilation systems using the forecast model as a weak constraint. We present results from two research activities. The first is the assimilation of surface rainfall data using a time-continuous variational assimilation based on a column model of the full moist physics. The second is the assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating retrievals from microwave sensors using a variational technique with physical parameters in the moist physics schemes as a control variable. We will show the impact of assimilating these data on analyses and forecasts. Among the lessons learned are (1) that the time-continuous application of moisture/temperature tendency corrections to mitigate model deficiencies offers an effective strategy for assimilating precipitation information, and (2) that the model prognostic variables must be allowed to directly respond to an improved rain and latent heating field within an analysis cycle to reap the full benefit of assimilating precipitation information. of microwave radiances versus retrieval information in raining areas, and initial efforts in developing ensemble techniques such as Kalman filter/smoother for precipitation assimilation. Looking to the future, we discuss new research directions including the assimilation

Hou, Arthur↗

NASA NTRS1978

Climate diagnostics

Diagnoses of climate fluctuations is examined emphasizing the assemblage of a host of observations, to develop a clearer physical picture of the nature and causal interrelationships of the climate events. Development of better statistical methods for making predictions of climate fluctuations and improving numerical climate prediction models is considered along with obtaining data for areas for which meager records exist such as the tropics and the southern hemisphere. The major circulation systems in the tropics, energy transports by the oceans and atmosphere, and the reflected or absorbed solar radiation values from the earth's surface are among the phenomena to be studied.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1984

Forecasts of the 500 mb height using a dynamically oriented statistical model

The forecast skill of a simple dynamically inspired statistical model of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field is evaluated in spectral and physical space for a variety of forecast lead times (1-32 days) and predictand averaging times (1-32 days). The model includes viscous damping, wave propagation, climatology and implicit stochastic forcing. The largest model skill was found for forecasts of the zonal flow and the largest waves. In general, the largest forecast skills were also associated with the largest forecast error, there being a slight geographic phase shift of the skill with respect to the error. Model skills for climate (time-averaged) forecasts are greater when using instantaneous rather than time averages to forecast time averages. Analysis of model errors suggests areas for improvement in representing forcing terms and model physics. However, the model error fields are largely 'white noise' which suggests that global forecast skills substantially larger than those obtained here are unlikely to be achieved by more sophisticated models.

Roads, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cascading process in the flute-mode turbulence of a plasma

The cascades of ideal invariants in the flute-mode turbulence are analyzed by considering a statistics based on an elementary three-mode coupling process. The statistical dynamics of the system is investigated on the basis of the existence of the physically most important (PMI) triad. When finite ion Larmor radius effects are considered, the PMI triad describes the formation of zonal flows.

Gonzalez, R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Simulated Performance of the Orbiting Wide-angle Light Collectors (OWL) Experiment

The Orbiting Wide-angle Light collectors (OWL) experiment is in NASA's mid-term strategic plan and will stereoscopically image, from equatorial orbit, the air fluorescence signal generated by airshowers induced by the ultrahigh energy (E greater than few x 10(exp 19) eV) component of the cosmic radiation. The use of a space-based platform enables an extremely large event acceptance aperture and thus will allow a high statistics measurement of these rare events. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations are required to quantify the physics potential of the mission as well as optimize the instrumental parameters. This paper reports on the results of the GSFC Monte Carlo simulation for two different, OWL instrument baseline designs. These results indicate that, assuming a continuation of the cosmic ray spectrum (theta approximately E(exp -2.75), OWL could have an event rate of 4000 events/year with E greater than or equal to 10(exp 20) eV. Preliminary results, based upon these Monte Carlo simulations, indicate that events can be accurately reconstructed in the detector focal plane arrays for the OWL instrument baseline designs under consideration.

Krizmanic, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Properties of SGR J1550-5418 Bursts

Magnetars are slowly rotating neutron stars with extreme magnetic fields, over 10(exp 15) Gauss. Only few have been discovered in the last 30 years. These sources are dormant most of their lifetimes and become randomly active emitting multiple soft gamma-ray bursts. We present here our results on the temporal analysis of ~300 bursts from Soft Gamma Repeater SGR J1550-5418 recorded with the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) onboard the Fermi Observatory during its activation on January 22-29, 2009. We employed an un-triggered burst search in the energy range 8-100keV to collect all events from the source, besides the ones that triggered GBM. For the entire sample of bursts we determined their durations, rise and decay times. We study here the statistical properties of these characteristics and discuss how these may help us better understand the physical characteristics of the magnetar model.

Gorgone, Nicholas M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Non-linear Least Square Fitting Technique for the Determination of Field Line Resonance Frequency in Ground Magnetometer Data: Application to Remote Sensing of Plasmaspheric Mass Density

The accurate determination of the Field Line Resonance (FLR) frequency of a resonating geomagnetic field line is necessary to remotely monitor the plasmaspheric mass density during geomagnetic storms and quiet times alike. Under certain assumptions the plasmaspheric mass density at the equator is inversely proportional to the square of the FLR frequency. The most common techniques to determine the FLR frequency from ground magnetometer measurements are the amplitude ratio and phase difference techniques, both based on geomagnetic field observations at two latitudinally separated ground stations along the same magnetic meridian. Previously developed automated techniques have used statistical methods to pinpoint the FLR frequency using the amplitude ratio and phase difference calculations. We now introduce a physics-based automated technique, using non-linear least square fitting of the ground magnetometer data to the analytical resonant wave equations, that reproduces the wave characteristics on the ground, and from those determine the FLR frequency. One of the advantages of the new technique is the estimation of physics-based errors of the FLR frequency, and as a result of the equatorial plasmaspheric mass density. We present analytical results of the new technique, and test it using data from the Inner-Magnetospheric Array for Geospace Science (iMAGS) ground magnetometer chain along the coast of Chile and the east coast of the United States. We compare the results with the results of previously published statistical automated techniques.

A. Boudouridis↗

NASA NTRS1978

Dynamic response and input identification of MDOF structures subjected to coupled random vector inputs

A method of random dynamic analysis is presented which is based on the classical approach applied to a discretized structure. The method assumes that the system identification is available in the form of natural modes and frequencies. These modes and frequencies can be found from either available solutions or approximately from finite element programs. A computer program has been developed to perform the computations required in the analysis. All computations are performed with transformed modal variables, which results in significant economy since the number of modal degrees of freedom is almost always less than the number of physical degrees of freedom. The program computes the response to force and base inputs which are statistically coupled. A method is also presented for predicting one of the inputs if the second input and the acceleration response at a point on the structure are known. Finally, results are presented for the random response of a rectangular plate subjected to a random pressure and a random base input. The inputs are considered individually and with various degrees of statistical coupling.

Ocallahan, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Improved disparity map analysis through the fusion of monocular image segmentations

The focus is to examine how estimates of three dimensional scene structure, as encoded in a scene disparity map, can be improved by the analysis of the original monocular imagery. The utilization of surface illumination information is provided by the segmentation of the monocular image into fine surface patches of nearly homogeneous intensity to remove mismatches generated during stereo matching. These patches are used to guide a statistical analysis of the disparity map based on the assumption that such patches correspond closely with physical surfaces in the scene. Such a technique is quite independent of whether the initial disparity map was generated by automated area-based or feature-based stereo matching. Stereo analysis results are presented on a complex urban scene containing various man-made and natural features. This scene contains a variety of problems including low building height with respect to the stereo baseline, buildings and roads in complex terrain, and highly textured buildings and terrain. The improvements are demonstrated due to monocular fusion with a set of different region-based image segmentations. The generality of this approach to stereo analysis and its utility in the development of general three dimensional scene interpretation systems are also discussed.

Perlant, Frederic P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Visualizing characteristics of ocean data collected during the Shuttle Imaging Radar-B experiment

Topographic measurements of sea surface elevation collected by the Surface Contour Radar (SCR) during NASA's Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-B) experiment are plotted as three dimensional surface plots to observe wave height variance along the track of a P-3 aircraft. Ocean wave spectra were computed from rotating altimeter measurements acquired by the Radar Ocean Wave Spectrometer (ROWS). Fourier power spectra computed from SIR-B synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the ocean are compared to ROWS surface wave spectra. Fourier inversion of SAR spectra, after subtraction of spectral noise and modeling of wave height modulation, yields topography similar to direct measurements made by SCR. Visual perspectives on the SCR and SAR ocean data are compared. Threshold distinctions between surface elevation and texture modulations of SAR data are considered within the context of a dynamic statistical model of rough surface scattering. The result of these endeavors is insight as to the physical mechanism governing the imaging of ocean waves with SAR.

Tilley, David G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

Ashrafi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Ionospheric projections of magnetospheric regions under low and high solar wind pressure conditions

The projection of magnetospheric regions into the dayside ionosphere as determined by particle precipitation characteristics was studied for dependence on solar wind parameters. It was found that the solar wind kinetic pressure p dramatically affected the map of magnetospheric projections. Under the constraint that p greater than or equal 4 nPa(yielding (p) = 5.9 nPa), the area of the cusp (magnetic latitude times magnetic local time extent) was 4.83 degree-hours; whereas under the constraint that p greater than or equal 2 nPa (yielding (p) = 1.5 nPa), the cusp area was only 1.01 degree-hours. The ionospheric footprint of the low-latitude boundary layer was similarly affected. Various possible correlations of p with other solar wind variables, including n, v, and absolute value of B(sub z), proved unable to account for the pressure effect. Because one criterion for identifying the cusp is high fluxes, the effect of nv was investigated with particular care, both in examples and statistically. Again, p itself had by far the most striking effect. Thus we concluded that some physical mechanism is needed to account for the pressure effect. One possibility is that increased direct solar wind plasma penetration of the magnetopause occurs under high-p conditions in the manner suggested by various proponents of impulsive penetration models. An alternative, which we find promising, is that, regardless of the original interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, a high-p solar wind leads to a large compression factor for the magnetosheath field, which is the field actually in contact with the magnetosphere. From this latter viewpoint, the chief effect of high particle pressure is simply to enhance the effectiveness of the interaction of the IMF with the magnetosphere.

Newell, Patrick T.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Variable Iron K(alpha) Lines in Seyfert 1 Galaxies

We find that variability of the iron K alpha line is common in Seyfert 1 galaxies. Using data from the ASCA archive for objects that have been observed more than once during the mission, we study the time-averaged spectra from individual observations, thereby probing variability on timescales that range from days to years. Since the statistics of the data do not warrant searches for line variability in terms of a complex physical model, we use a simple Gaussian to model the gross shape of the line and then use the centroid energy, intensity, and equivalent width as robust indicators of changes in the line profile. We find that approximately 70% of Seyfert 1 galaxies (10 out of 15) show variability in at least one of these parameters: the centroid energy, intensity, and equivalent width vary in six, four, and eight sources, respectively. Because of the low signal-to-noise ratio, limited sampling, and time averaging, we consider these results to represent lower limits to the rate of incidence of variability. In most cases changes in the line do not appear to track changes in the continuum. In particular, we find no evidence for variability of the line intensity in NGC 4151, suggesting an origin in a region larger than the putative accretion disk, where most of the iron line has been thought to originate. Mrk 279 is investigated on short timescales. The time-averaged effective line energy (as measured by the Gaussian center energy, which is weighted by emission in the entire line profile) is 6.5 keV in the galaxy rest frame. As the continuum flux increases by 20% in a few hours, the Fe K line responds within approximately 10,000 seconds with the effective line energy increasing by 0.22 keV (approximately 10,500 kilometers per second). We also examine the ROSAT PSPC spectrum of Mrk 279 but find inconsistencies with ASCA. Problems with the ASCA and ROSAT calibration that affect simultaneous spectral fits at low energies are discussed in an appendix.

Weaver, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Richon, K.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Electron Precipitation Parameters and Ionospheric Conductances Inferred from Auroral Images Acquired by the Visible Imaging Systems (VIS) on the Polar Spacecraft

The Visible Imaging System (VIS) on the polar spacecraft provided time sequences of auroral images at multiple wavelengths that yield information of auroral dynamics on a global scale with a spatial resolution of - 20 km and temporal resolution of approx. 1 minute. Time sequences of VIS images in which the aurora was highly dynamic are used to infer global maps for the electron precipitation parameters, energy flux and characteristic energies, and ionospheric conductances. The maps are inferred from the corresponding VIS images using an auroral model (Lumerzheim et al., 1987). The temporal and spatial resolution of the VIS inferred patterns are unprecedented. The inferred patterns are highly structured and vary significantly on a time scale of less than 5 minutes. These patterns can be very beneficial for global physics-based numerical models for the high-latitude ionosphere which previously had to rely on statistical models for the electron precipitation and ionospheric conductance.

Sigwarth, John B.↗