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DOE OSTI2020

Jitter-induced Max-of-N fluence distribution at the National Ignition Facility

Max-of-N fluence is the maximum peak fluence at a given location over N number of shots and is important for calculating fluence dependence for intrinsic laser-induced optic damage. Previously, we observed the Max-of-N effect on the National Ignition Facility and developed an ad-hoc model to calculate its effect. In this work, we attempt to understand the fundamental mechanism that causes this Max-of-N effect. We conclude that the primary fundamental mechanism responsible for this effect is dominated by the combination of fluence variations and pointing jitter of the laser. This discovery both strengthens our model for predicting optics longevity and gives us insight into how to mitigate this effect.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Influence of Charge Rate and Cathode-Particle Architectures on Degradation of Li-Ion Cells Through 3D Continuum-Level Damage Models

In this article, we develop a 3D, continuum-level damage model implemented on statistically generated LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O (NMC 532) secondary cathode particles. The primary motivation of the particle-level model is to inform cathode-particle design through detailed exploration of the influence of secondary and primary particle sizes on the damage predicted during operation, and determine charging profiles that reduce cathode fracture. The model considers NMC 532 secondary particles containing an agglomeration of anisotropic, randomly oriented grains. These brittle, Ni-based cathodes are prone to mechanical degradation, which reduces overall battery cycle life. The model predicts that secondary-particle fracture is primarily due to non-ideal grain interactions and high-rate charge demands. The model predicts that small secondary-particles with large grains develop significantly less damage than larger secondary particles with small grains. The model predicts most of the chemo-mechanical damage accumulates in the first few cycles. The chemo-mechanical model predicts monotonically increasing capacity fade with cycling and rate. Comparing to experimental results, the model is well suited for capturing initial capacity fade mechanisms, but additional physics is required to capture long-term capacity fade effects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regularized machine learning on molecular graph model explains systematic error in DFT enthalpies

Abstract A major goal of materials research is the discovery of novel and efficient heterogeneous catalysts for various chemical processes. In such studies, the candidate catalyst material is modeled using tens to thousands of chemical species and elementary reactions. Density Functional Theory (DFT) is widely used to calculate the thermochemistry of these species which might be surface species or gas-phase molecules. The use of an approximate exchange correlation functional in the DFT framework introduces an important source of error in such models. This is especially true in the calculation of gas phase molecules whose thermochemistry is calculated using the same planewave basis set as the rest of the surface mechanism. Unfortunately, the nature and magnitude of these errors is unknown for most practical molecules. Here, we investigate the error in the enthalpy of formation for 1676 gaseous species using two different DFT levels of theory and the ‘ground truth values’ obtained from the NIST database. We featurize molecules using graph theory. We use a regularized algorithm to discover a sparse model of the error and identify important molecular fragments that drive this error. The model is robust to rigorous statistical tests and is used to correct DFT thermochemistry, achieving more than an order of magnitude improvement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effective Field Theory of Random Quantum Circuits

Quantum circuits have been widely used as a platform to simulate generic quantum many-body systems. In particular, random quantum circuits provide a means to probe universal features of many-body quantum chaos and ergodicity. Some such features have already been experimentally demonstrated in noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. On the theory side, properties of random quantum circuits have been studied on a case-by-case basis and for certain specific systems, and a hallmark of quantum chaos—universal Wigner–Dyson level statistics—has been derived. This work develops an effective field theory for a large class of random quantum circuits. The theory has the form of a replica sigma model and is similar to the low-energy approach to diffusion in disordered systems. The method is used to explicitly derive the universal random matrix behavior of a large family of random circuits. In particular, we rederive the Wigner–Dyson spectral statistics of the brickwork circuit model by Chan, De Luca, and Chalker [Phys. Rev. X 8, 041019 (2018)] and show within the same calculation that its various permutations and higher-dimensional generalizations preserve the universal level statistics. Finally, we use the replica sigma model framework to rederive the Weingarten calculus, which is a method of evaluating integrals of polynomials of matrix elements with respect to the Haar measure over compact groups and has many applications in the study of quantum circuits. The effective field theory derived here provides both a method to quantitatively characterize the quantum dynamics of random Floquet systems (e.g., calculating operator and entanglement spreading) and a path to understanding the general fundamental mechanism behind quantum chaos and thermalization in these systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Melt extruded versus extrusion compression molded glass-polypropylene long fiber thermoplastic composites

Long fiber thermoplastic (LFT) composites are processed either with extrusion compression or fiber injection processes. The properties of LFT materials are highly influenced by processing techniques, which lead to different porosity contents, fiber length distributions, and fiber orientation distributions. It is important to understand the various LFT processing techniques and their effects on mechanical, thermal, and microscopic properties. This work considered LFT sheets processed via extrusion, which offers highly aligned fibers (referred to as “Tecnogor composites”), and LFT composites produced via extrusion compression molding (ECM), which offers a random distribution of fibers. Tecnogor composites exhibited higher flexural strength (35–65%), flexural modulus (132–172%), tensile strength (39–52%), tensile modulus (67–75%), and Izod impact resistance (195–220%) than the random LFT composites. This response was attributed to the aligned fibers in Tecnogor composites. Mathematical models including Halpin-Tsai and Lavengood-Goettler were used to predict and compare the Young’s modulus of Tecnogor and ECM composites, respectively.

mechanical testing↗

DOE OSTI2024

The persistence of memory in ionic conduction probed by nonlinear optics

Predicting practical rates of transport in condensed phases enables the rational design of materials, devices and processes. This is especially critical to developing low-carbon energy technologies such as rechargeable batteries. For ionic conduction, the collective mechanisms, variation of conductivity with timescales and confinement, and ambiguity in the phononic origin of translation, call for a direct probe of the fundamental steps of ionic diffusion: ion hops. However, such hops are rare-event large-amplitude translations, and are challenging to excite and detect. Here we use single-cycle terahertz pumps to impulsively trigger ionic hopping in battery solid electrolytes. This is visualized by an induced transient birefringence, enabling direct probing of anisotropy in ionic hopping on the picosecond timescale. The relaxation of the transient signal measures the decay of orientational memory, and the production of entropy in diffusion. We extend experimental results using in silico transient birefringence to identify vibrational attempt frequencies for ion hopping. Using nonlinear optical methods, we probe ion transport at its fastest limit, distinguish correlated conduction mechanisms from a true random walk at the atomic scale, and demonstrate the connection between activated transport and the thermodynamics of information.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Framework for Power System Event Type Identification via Safe Semi-Supervised Techniques

Herein this paper investigates the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data with deep learning techniques to construct real-time event identification models for transmission networks. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources represents a great opportunity to achieve decarbonization, as well as challenges in systematic situational awareness. When high-resolution PMU data and sufficient manually recorded event labels are available, the power event identification problem is defined as a statistical classification problem that can be solved by numerous cutting-edge classifiers. However, in real grids, collecting tremendous high-quality event labels is quite expensive. Utilities frequently have a large number of event records without in-depth details (i.e., unlabeled events). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning-based method to improve the performance of event classifiers trained with a limited number of labeled events by exploiting the information from massive unlabeled events. In other words, compared to existing data-driven methods, our method requires only a small portion of labeled data to achieve a similar level of accuracy. Meanwhile, this work discusses and addresses the performance degradation caused by class distribution mismatch between the training set and the real applications. Based on the proposed safe learning mechanism, our model does not directly use all unlabeled events during model training, but selectively uses them through a comprehensive evaluation procedure. Numerical studies on a sizable PMU dataset have been used to validate the performance of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable Preisach Modeling for Characterization and Optimization of Particle Accelerator Systems with Hysteresis

Future improvements in particle accelerator performance are predicated on increasingly accurate online modeling of accelerators. Hysteresis effects in magnetic, mechanical, and material components of accelerators are often neglected in online accelerator models used to inform control algorithms, even though reproducibility errors from systems exhibiting hysteresis are not negligible in high precision accelerators. Here, we combine the classical Preisach model of hysteresis with machine learning techniques to efficiently create nonparametric, high-fidelity models of arbitrary systems exhibiting hysteresis. We experimentally demonstrate how these methods can be used in situ, where a hysteresis model of an accelerator magnet is combined with a Bayesian statistical model of the beam response, allowing characterization of magnetic hysteresis solely from beam-based measurements. Finally, we explore how using these joint hysteresis-Bayesian statistical models allows us to overcome optimization performance limitations that arise when hysteresis effects are ignored.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Turbulence theories and statistical closure approaches

When discussing research in physics and in science more generally, it is common to ascribe equal importance to the three components of the scientific trinity: theoretical, experimental, and computational studies. This review will explore the future of modern turbulence theory by tracing its history, which began in earnest with Kolmogorov’s 1941 analysis of turbulence cascade and inertial range [A.N. Kolmogorov, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR, 30, 299, (1941); 32, 19, (1941)]. The 80th Anniversary of Kolmogorov’s landmark study is a welcome opportunity to survey the achievements and evaluate the future of the theoretical approach of turbulence research. Over the years, turbulence theories have been critically important in laying the foundation of our understanding of the nature of turbulent flows. In particular, the Direct Interaction Approximation (DIA) [R.H. Kraichnan, J. Fluid Mech., 5, 497 (1959)] and its subsequent development, known as the statistical closure approach, can be identified as perhaps the most profound single advancement. The remarkable success of the statistical closure has furnished a platform to study such essential concepts as the energy transfer process and interacting scales, and the roles of the straining and sweeping motions. More recently, the quasi-Lagrangian formulation of V. L’vov & I. Procaccia and Kraichnan’s solvable passive scalar model provided powerful ways to explore another fundamental aspect of turbulent flows, the phenomena of intermittency, and the associated anomalous scaling exponents. In the meantime, the theory of fluid equilibria has been developed to describe the large-scale structures that can emerge from turbulent cascades of two-dimensional and geophysical flows at a later time. And yet, despite all these successes, analytical treatments suffer from mathematical complexities. As a result, the utility of theoretical approaches has been limited to relatively idealized flows. On the other hand, in recent decades, computational abilities and experimental facilities have reached an unprecedented scale. Looking beyond the horizon, the imminent deployment of exascale supercomputers will generate complete datasets of the entire flow field of key benchmark flows, allowing researchers to extract additional measurements concerning fully developed, complex turbulent flow fields far beyond those available from the statistical closure theories. Some other developments that could potentially influence the future course of turbulence theories include the advancement of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data science; likely disruptions arising from the advent of quantum computation; and the increasingly prominent role of turbulence research in providing more accurate climate scientific data. Finally, turbulence theorists can leverage these developments by asking the right questions and developing advanced, sophisticated frameworks that will be able to predict and correlate vast amounts of data from the other two components of the trinity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for Higgs boson decays to a Z boson and a photon in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

Results are presented from a search for the Higgs boson decay H → Zγ, where Z → ℓ$^{+}$ℓ$^{−}$ with ℓ = e or μ. The search is performed using a sample of proton-proton (pp) collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Events are assigned to mutually exclusive categories, which exploit differences in both event topology and kinematics of distinct Higgs production mechanisms to enhance signal sensitivity. The signal strength μ, defined as the product of the cross section and the branching fraction $ \left[\sigma \left(\textrm{pp}\to \textrm{H}\right)\mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \textrm{Z}\upgamma \right)\right] $ relative to the standard model prediction, is extracted from a simultaneous fit to the ℓ$^{+}$ℓ$^{−}$γ invariant mass distributions in all categories and is measured to be μ = 2.4 ± 0.9 for a Higgs boson mass of 125.38 GeV. The statistical significance of the observed excess of events is 2.7 standard deviations. This measurement corresponds to $ \left[\sigma \left(\textrm{pp}\to \textrm{H}\right)\mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \textrm{Z}\upgamma \right)\right]=0.21\pm 0.08 $ pb. The observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level on μ is 4.1 (1.8), where the expected limit is calculated under the background-only hypothesis. The ratio of branching fractions $ \mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \textrm{Z}\upgamma \right)/\mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \upgamma \upgamma \right) $ is measured to be $ {1.5}_{-0.6}^{+0.7} $, which agrees with the standard model prediction of 0.69 ± 0.04 at the 1.5 standard deviation level.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nonmonotonic effect of chemical heterogeneity on interfacial crack growth at high-angle grain boundaries in Fe-Ni-Cr alloys

Here, an intermittent pattern is observed in the modeling of interfacial cyclic-loading crack growth at high-angle grain boundaries in ternary Fe-Ni-Cr alloys. Different from conventional wisdom of stress-intensity factor, the abrupt crack advances are found driven by extreme value statistics—namely, the aggregation of atoms with most compressive residual stresses. In addition, inherently non-affine atomic stress fluctuations are discovered, and the fluctuations peak at intermediate level of chemical heterogeneity, causing the fastest crack growth. Implications of such nonmonotonic mechanism in regard to the origin of intermediate-temperature embrittlement phenomena are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

An over-approximation of entropy for elemental multiconfigurational ground state electronic structures

The ability to predict the chemical and physical properties of a material is directly related to the structure and interactions of its electrons. For materials comprised of f-block elements (the lanthanides and actinides found in the last two rows of the periodic table), the complexity of electronic structure has presented great difficulty in understanding, modeling, and predicting material properties. The complexity of multiconfigurational ground state electronic structures is illustrated herein by the combinatorics of electron permutations within individual and cumulative occupancy configurations. A non-integer orbital occupancy representation of multiconfigurational ground states is described for superposition mixing between multiple near-energy degenerate occupancy configurations and generalized in such a way that established ground states are returned by approximation for elements with less-complex electronic structures. By considering the occupancy configurations as statistical mechanics macrostates, and the permutations of electrons as statistical mechanics microstates within those macrostates, an over-approximation of entropy for multiconfigurational elemental ground state electronic structures has been calculated.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spectral fluctuations in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model

We present a detailed quantitative analysis of spectral correlations in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model. We find that the deviations from universal Random Matrix Theory (RMT) behavior are due to a small number of long-wavelength fluctuations (of the order of the number of Majorana fermions N ) from one realization of the ensemble to the next one. These modes can be parameterized effectively in terms of Q-Hermite orthogonal polynomials, the main contribution being due to scale fluctuations for which we give a simple analytical estimate. Our numerical results for N = 32 show that only the lowest eight polynomials are needed to eliminate the nonuniversal part of the spectral fluctuations. The covariance matrix of the coefficients of this expansion can be obtained analytically from low-order double-trace moments. We evaluate the covariance matrix of the first six moments and find that it agrees with the numerics. We also analyze the spectral correlations in terms of a nonlinear σ-model, which is derived through a Fierz transformation, and evaluate the one and two-point spectral correlation functions to two-loop order. The wide correlator is given by the sum of the universal RMT result and corrections whose lowest-order term corresponds to scale fluctuations. However, the loop expansion of the σ-model results in an ill-behaved expansion of the resolvent, and it gives universal RMT fluctuations not only for q= 4 or higher even q-body interactions, but also for the q= 2 SYK model albeit with a much smaller Thouless energy while the correct result in this case should have been Poisson statistics. In our numerical studies we analyze the number variance and spectral form factor for N = 32 and q = 4. We show that the quadratic deviation of the number variance for large energies appears as a peak for small times in the spectral form factor. After eliminating the long-wavelength fluctuations, we find quantitative agreement with RMT up to an exponentially large number of level spacings for the number variance or exponentially short times in the case of the spectral form factor.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Final Technical Report (FTR)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. This project will leverage data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Please see our list of public reports at https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html. Objective 1: Support the global PV industry with scalable, robust data analysis tools that reduce the uncertainty of PV system performance and loss calculation. Objective 2: Reduce perceived risk arising from degradation rate, soiling loss, and system availability by publishing detailed statistics on U.S. fleet performance. Objective 3: Highlight factors leading to system underperformance including module type, climate, mounting configuration, etc. Objective 4: Enable continued high system performance in modern PV systems, as turnover and advances in technology bring new suppliers and high-efficiency modules into the market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-Aware, Structure-Preserving Machine Learning Approach for Domain Shift Detection From Nonlinear Dynamic Responses of Structural Systems

Complex structural systems deployed for aerospace, civil, or mechanical applications must operate reliably under varying operational conditions. Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems help ensure the reliability of these systems by providing continuous monitoring of the state of the structure. SHM relies on synthesizing measured data with a predictive model to make informed decisions about structural states. However, these models—which may be thought of as a form of a digital twin—need to be updated continuously as structural changes (e.g., due to damage) arise. We propose an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input state space and then encodes a distance-aware mechanism via a Gaussian process (GP) kernel. The proposed approach leverages the spectral-normalized neural GP algorithm to combine the flexibility of neural networks with the advantages of GP, subjected to structure-preserving constraints, to produce an uncertainty-aware model. This model is used to detect domain shift due to structural changes that cannot be observed directly because they may be spatially isolated (e.g., inside a joint or localized damage). This work leverages detection theory to detect domain shift systematically given statistical features of the prediction variance produced by the model. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a nonlinear structure being subjected to damage conditions. In conclusion, it is shown that the proposed approach is able to rely on distances of the transformed input state space to predict increased variance in shifted domains while being robust to normative changes.

Algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Thermochemical Equilibria with Interacting Defects: Sr 1 − x Ce x Mn O 3 − δ Alloys for Water Splitting

Solar thermochemical hydrogen is one of the few potential routes towards direct fuel production from renewable energy sources, but the thermodynamic boundary conditions for efficient and economic energy conversion are challenging. Success or failure of a given oxide working material depends on the subtle balance between enthalpy and entropy contributions in the redox processes. Developing a mechanistic understanding of the behavior of materials on the basis of atomistic models and first-principles calculations is an important part of advancing the technology. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox-active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. This problem is of more general importance to applications that rely on high levels of off-stoichiometry or doping, including, for example, batteries, thermoelectrics, and ceramic fuel cells. To account for such repulsive defect interactions, we introduce a statistical mechanics approach, defining an expression for the free energy of defect interaction based on limited sampling of defect configurations in density functional theory supercell calculations. The parameterization of this energy contribution as a function of defect concentration and temperature allows on-the-fly simulation of thermochemical equilibria. The approach consistently incorporates finite temperature effects by including the leading contributions to the temperature-dependent free energy for the case at hand, i.e., the ideal gas and configurational enthalpies and entropies. We demonstrate the capability and utility of the approach by simulating the water splitting redox processes for Sr 1 − x Ce x Mn O 3 − δ alloys. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Critical statistical assessment of data in metal additive manufacturing

Obtaining high quality data reflecting the relationships between the additive manufacturing (AM) process parameters, material microstructure and mechanical properties is crucial for the use of machine learning in AM. A database of over 4,000 data entries of metal AM was created thanks to a large number of literature studies on key process parameters and indicators of build quality. Meta-analysis reveals critical biases in the literature. Firstly, majority of studies report only high quality builds, these imbalances in reporting result in weak correlation between process parameters, properties and consolidation, limiting the ability of machine learning models to generalize beyond optimized conditions. Nevertheless, the trained models accurately predict yield strength ($R^2 = 0.85$), suggesting that certain process–property relationships are effectively captured within these models. Secondly, quantitative microstructural data are largely absent, limiting the learning of the microstructure-mechanical properties relationships. Finally, current process window identification is based largely on the consolidation, despite significant uncertainty in its measurement. It is important to identify the process map on the basis of not only the consolidation, but also mechanical behaviour under loading. Such a identification shows that 316 L and Inconel have much larger process map (i.e. highly printable) in comparison to the AlSi10Mg and Ti6Al4V.

Additive manufacturing↗