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NASA NTRS2013

Predicting Operator Execution Times Using CogTool

Researchers and developers of NextGen systems can use predictive human performance modeling tools as an initial approach to obtain skilled user performance times analytically, before system testing with users. This paper describes the CogTool models for a two pilot crew executing two different types of a datalink clearance acceptance tasks, and on two different simulation platforms. The CogTool time estimates for accepting and executing Required Time of Arrival and Interval Management clearances were compared to empirical data observed in video tapes and registered in simulation files. Results indicate no statistically significant difference between empirical data and the CogTool predictions. A population comparison test found no significant differences between the CogTool estimates and the empirical execution times for any of the four test conditions. We discuss modeling caveats and considerations for applying CogTool to crew performance modeling in advanced cockpit environments.

Santiago-Espada, Yamira↗

NASA NTRS2015

Desensitized Optimal Filtering and Sensor Fusion Toolkit

Analytical Mechanics Associates, Inc., has developed a software toolkit that filters and processes navigational data from multiple sensor sources. A key component of the toolkit is a trajectory optimization technique that reduces the sensitivity of Kalman filters with respect to model parameter uncertainties. The sensor fusion toolkit also integrates recent advances in adaptive Kalman and sigma-point filters for non-Gaussian problems with error statistics. This Phase II effort provides new filtering and sensor fusion techniques in a convenient package that can be used as a stand-alone application for ground support and/or onboard use. Its modular architecture enables ready integration with existing tools. A suite of sensor models and noise distribution as well as Monte Carlo analysis capability are included to enable statistical performance evaluations.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Evaluation of detectability and distinguishability of aircraft control element failures using flight test data

This paper examines the detectability and distinguishability of control element failures on the B-737 aircraft. The results of Weiss (1985) are used to define decentralized residuals from analytic redundancy relationships, and the results of Weiss et al. (1984) are used to define the probabilistic distance measures which provide bounds on the minimum achievable probabilities or error. The residual signals are then generated using data which were recorded during a landing approach of the NASA-Langley Advanced Transport Operations (ATOPS) transportation systems research vehicle (TSRV). The distance measures are computed using estimates of the statistics of these residual signals.

Weiss, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

DSN Array Simulator

The DSN Array Simulator (wherein 'DSN' signifies NASA's Deep Space Network) is an updated version of software previously denoted the DSN Receive Array Technology Assessment Simulation. This software (see figure) is used for computational modeling of a proposed DSN facility comprising user-defined arrays of antennas and transmitting and receiving equipment for microwave communication with spacecraft on interplanetary missions. The simulation includes variations in spacecraft tracked and communication demand changes for up to several decades of future operation. Such modeling is performed to estimate facility performance, evaluate requirements that govern facility design, and evaluate proposed improvements in hardware and/or software. The updated version of this software affords enhanced capability for characterizing facility performance against user-defined mission sets. The software includes a Monte Carlo simulation component that enables rapid generation of key mission-set metrics (e.g., numbers of links, data rates, and date volumes), and statistical distributions thereof as functions of time. The updated version also offers expanded capability for mixed-asset network modeling--for example, for running scenarios that involve user-definable mixtures of antennas having different diameters (in contradistinction to a fixed number of antennas having the same fixed diameter). The improved version also affords greater simulation fidelity, sufficient for validation by comparison with actual DSN operations and analytically predictable performance metrics.

Tikidjian, Raffi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Treating gridded geospatial data as point data to simplify analytics

Gridded geospatial remote sensing (satellite) data has traditionally been stored in file-based multidimensional arrays to preserve the locality of data. Measurements from locations that are physically next to each other on earth remain next to each other in the arrays. Maintaining this locality is useful when running calculations like reprojection, but unnecessary for many other calculations. This talk will go through a real world example of a tool redesign at the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), showing the advantages of using the data frame model for calculating summary statistics, where measurement proximity is unimportant.

Analysis-ready data↗

NASA NTRS2002

Broadband Noise Predictions Based on a New Aeroacoustic Formulation

A new analytic result in acoustics called 'Formulation 1B,' proposed by Farassat, is used to compute the loading noise from an unsteady surface pressure distribution on a thin airfoil in the time domain. This formulation is a new solution of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation with the loading source term. The formulation contains a far-field surface integral that depends on the time derivative and the surface gradient of the pressure on the airfoil, as well as a contour integral on the boundary of the airfoil surface. As a first test case, the new formulation is used to compute the noise radiated from a flat plate, moving through a sinusoidal gust of constant frequency. The unsteady surface pressure for this test case is specified analytically from a result that is based on linear airfoil theory. This test case is used to examine the velocity scaling properties of Formulation 1B, and to demonstrate its equivalence to Formulation 1A, of Farassat. The new acoustic formulation, again with an analytic surface pressure, is then used to predict broadband noise radiated from an airfoil immersed in homogeneous turbulence. The results are compared with experimental data previously reported by Paterson and Amiet. Good agreement between predictions and measurements is obtained. The predicted results also agree very well with those of Paterson and Amiet, who used a frequency-domain approach. Finally, an alternative form of Formulation 1B is described for statistical analysis of broadband noise.

Casper, J.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Analytical methods for performance evaluation of nonlinear filters.

In the investigation, the filtering problem is considered in the continuous time domain. The postulated simple suboptimal nonlinear filter structure closely parallels the structure of the Kalman-Bucy optimal linear filter algorithm. Two filter performance evaluation methods are developed based on the Kolmogorov equations for the transition density of Markov processes. The expansions in the approximations for the nonlinear system and observation functions are in effect carried out up to second-order terms in both methods. The description of the filter's performance is sought in terms of second-order statistics in both methods.

Bejczy, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts as well as performing major probabilistic assessments used to support flight rationale and help establish program requirements. During 2008, the Analysis Group performed more than 70 assessments. Although all these assessments were important, some were instrumental in the decisionmaking processes for the Shuttle and Constellation Programs. Two of the more significant tasks were the Space Transportation System (STS)-122 Low Level Cutoff PRA for the SSP and the Orion Pad Abort One (PA-1) PRA for the CxP. These two activities, along with the numerous other tasks the Analysis Group performed in 2008, are summarized in this report. This report also highlights several ongoing and upcoming efforts to provide crucial statistical and probabilistic assessments, such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) PRA for the Hubble Space Telescope service mission and the first fully integrated PRAs for the CxP's Lunar Sortie and ISS missions.

Valentine, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2008

Stochastic Transport Theory for Investigating the Three-Dimensional Canopy Structure from Space Measurements

Radiation reflected from vegetation canopies exhibits high spatial variation. Satellite-borne sensors measure the mean intensities emanating from heterogeneous vegetated pixels. The theory of radiative transfer in stochastic media provides the most logical linkage between satellite observations and the three-dimensional canopy structure through a closed system of simple equations which contains the mean intensity and higher statistical moments directly as its unknowns. Although this theory has been a highly active research field in recent years, its potential for satellite remote sensing of vegetated surfaces has not been fully realized because of the lack of models of a canopy pair-correlation function that the stochastic radiative transfer equations require. The pair correlation function is defined as the probability of finding simultaneously phytoelements at two points. This paper presents analytical and Monte Carlo generated pair correlation functions. Theoretical and numerical analyses show that the spatial correlation between phytoelements is primarily responsible for the effects of the three-dimensional canopy structure on canopy reflective and absorptive properties. The pair correlation function, therefore, is the most natural and physically meaningful measure of the canopy structure over a wide range of scales. The stochastic radiative transfer equations naturally admit this measure and thus provide a powerful means to investigate the three-dimensional canopy structure from space. Canopy reflectances predicted by the stochastic equations are assessed by comparisons with the PARABOLA measurements from coniferous and broadleaf forest stands in the BOREAS Southern Study Areas. The pair correlation functions are derived from data on tree structural parameters collected during field campaigns conducted at these sites. The simulated canopy reflectances compare well with the PARABOLA data.

Huang, Dong↗

NASA NTRS1996

APMS: An Integrated Set of Tools for Measuring Safety

This is a report of work in progress. In it, I summarize the status of the research and development of the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS) for managing, processing, and analyzing digital flight-recorded data. The objectives of the NASA-FAA APMS research project are to establish a sound scientific and technological basis for flight-data analysis, to define an open and flexible architecture for flight-data-analysis systems, and to articulate guidelines for a standardized database structure on which to continue to build future flight-data-analysis extensions. APMS will offer to the air transport community an open, voluntary standard for flight-data-analysis software, a standard that will help to ensure suitable functionality, and data interchangeability, among competing software programs. APMS will develop and document the methodologies, algorithms, and procedures for data management and analyses to enable users to easily interpret the implications regarding safety and efficiency of operations. APMS does not entail the implementation of a nationwide flight-data-collection system. It is intended to provide technical tools to ease the large-scale implementation of flight-data analyses at both the air-carrier and the national-airspace levels in support of their Flight Operations and Quality Assurance (FOQA) Programs and Advanced Qualifications Programs (AQP). APMS cannot meet its objectives unless it develops tools that go substantially beyond the capabilities of the current commercially available software and supporting analytic methods that are mainly designed to count special events. These existing capabilities, while of proven value, were created primarily with the needs of air crews in mind. APMS tools must serve the needs of the government and air carriers, as well as air crews, to fully support the FOQA and AQP programs. They must be able to derive knowledge not only through the analysis of single flights (special-event detection), but through statistical evaluation of the performance of large groups of flights. This paper describes the integrated suite of tools that will assist analysts in evaluating the operational performance and safety of the national air transport system, the air carrier, and the air crew.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

APMS: An Integrated Suite of Tools for Measuring Performance and Safety

This is a report of work in progress. In it, I summarize the status of the research and development of the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS) for managing, processing, and analyzing digital flight-recorded data. The objectives of the NASA-FAA APMS research project are to establish a sound scientific and technological basis for flight-data analysis, to define an open and flexible architecture for flight-data-analysis systems, and to articulate guidelines for a standardized database structure on which to continue to build future flight-data-analysis extensions . APMS will offer to the air transport community an open, voluntary standard for flight-data-analysis software, a standard that will help to ensure suitable functionality, and data interchangeability, among competing software programs. APMS will develop and document the methodologies, algorithms, and procedures for data management and analyses to enable users to easily interpret the implications regarding safety and efficiency of operations. APMS does not entail the implementation of a nationwide flight-data-collection system. It is intended to provide technical tools to ease the large-scale implementation of flight-data analyses at both the air-carrier and the national-airspace levels in support of their Flight Operations and Quality Assurance (FOQA) Programs and Advanced Qualifications Programs (AQP). APMS cannot meet its objectives unless it develops tools that go substantially beyond the capabilities of the current commercially available software and supporting analytic methods that are mainly designed to count special events. These existing capabilities, while of proven value, were created primarily with the needs of air crews in mind. APMS tools must serve the needs of the government and air carriers, as well as air crews, to fully support the FOQA and AQP programs. They must be able to derive knowledge not only through the analysis of single flights (special-event detection), but through statistical evaluation of the performance of large groups of flights. This paper describes the integrated suite of tools that will assist analysts in evaluating the operational performance and safety of the national air transport system, the air carrier, and the air crew.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

APMS: An Integrated Suite of Tools for Measuring Performance and Safety

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS): An Integrated Suite of Tools for Measuring Performance and Safety

This is a report of work in progress. In it, I summarize the status of the research and development of the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS) for managing, processing, and analyzing digital flight-recorded data, The objectives of the NASA-FAA APMS research project are to establish a sound scientific and technological basis for flight-data analysis, to define an open and flexible architecture for flight-data analysis systems, and to articulate guidelines for a standardized database structure on which to continue to build future flight-data-analysis extensions. APMS offers to the air transport community an open, voluntary standard for flight-data-analysis software; a standard that will help to ensure suitable functionality and data interchangeability among competing software programs. APMS will develop and document the methodologies, algorithms, and procedures for data management and analyses to enable users to easily interpret the implications regarding safety and efficiency of operations. APMS does not entail the implementation of a nationwide flight-data-collection system. It is intended to provide technical tools to ease the large-scale implementation of flight-data analyses at both the air-carrier and the national-airspace levels in support of their Flight Operations and Quality Assurance (FOQA) Programs and Advanced Qualifications Programs (AQP). APMS cannot meet its objectives unless it develops tools that go substantially beyond the capabilities of the current commercially available software and supporting analytic methods that are mainly designed to count special events. These existing capabilities, while of proven value, were created primarily with the needs-of aircrews in mind. APMS tools must serve the needs of the government and air carriers, as well as aircrews, to fully support the FOQA and AQP programs. They must be able to derive knowledge not only through the analysis of single flights (special-event detection), but also through statistical evaluation of the performance of large groups of flights. This paper describes the integrated suite of tools that will assist analysts in evaluating the operational performance and safety of the national air transport system, the air carrier, and the aircrew.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Considerations in the design of large space structures

Several analytical studies of topics relevant to the design of large space structures are presented. Topics covered are: the types and quantitative evaluation of the disturbances to which large Earth-oriented microwave reflectors would be subjected and the resulting attitude errors of such spacecraft; the influence of errors in the structural geometry of the performance of radiofrequency antennas; the effect of creasing on the flatness of tensioned reflector membrane surface; and an analysis of the statistics of damage to truss-type structures due to meteoroids.

Hedgepeth, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Sea surface temperature anomalies, planetary waves, and air-sea feedback in the middle latitudes

Current analytical models for large-scale air-sea interactions in the middle latitudes are reviewed in terms of known sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The scales and strength of different atmospheric forcing mechanisms are discussed, along with the damping and feedback processes controlling the evolution of the SST. Difficulties with effective SST modeling are described in terms of the techniques and results of case studies, numerical simulations of mixed-layer variability and statistical modeling. The relationship between SST and diabatic heating anomalies is considered and a linear model is developed for the response of the stationary atmosphere to the air-sea feedback. The results obtained with linear wave models are compared with the linear model results. Finally, sample data are presented from experiments with general circulation models into which specific SST anomaly data for the middle latitudes were introduced.

Frankignoul, C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Energy loss of fast nonthermal electrons in plasmas

Simple analytical expressions for equilibration times of nonrelativistic monoenergetic electrons in plasmas are evaluated in the 'weak'-beam approximation when the density of the monoenergetic electrons is much smaller than the plasma density. The equilibration time is defined as the time needed by the beam of monenergetic electrons to lose most of its energy as a result of collisions with plasma particles having a Maxwellian energy distribution. The process of energy equilibration is treated as a statistical superposition of both elastic and inelastic collisions in the plasma. The possibility of collisionless equilibration is discussed. Comparison of the equilibration times with the Spitzer relaxation times indicates that the former times are more appropriate for an estimate of the energy loss of the 'weak' electron beams in highly ionized plasmas.

Kunc, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Damage detection in elastic structures using vibratory residual forces and weighted sensitivity

A methodology is presented for detecting structural damage in elastic structures by nondestructive means. Measured modal test data along with a correlated analytical structural model are used to locate potentially damaged regions using residual modal force vectors and to conduct a weighted sensitivity analysis to assess the extent of mass and/or stiffness variations, where damage is characterized as a stiffness reduction. The current approach is unique among other approaches in that it accounts for (1) variations in system mass, system stiffness, and mass center (locations), (2) perturbations of both the natural frequencies and modal vectors, and (3) statistical confidence factors for the structural parameters and potential experimental instrumentation error. Moreover, this procedure can be used with either full or reduced models. A wide variety of numerical examples are presented that show that the current method provides a precise indication of both the location and the extent of structural damage.

Ricles, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Investigation of Fundamental Modeling and Thermal Performance Issues for a Metallic Thermal Protection System Design

A study was performed to develop an understanding of the key factors that govern the performance of metallic thermal protection systems for reusable launch vehicles. A current advanced metallic thermal protection system (TPS) concept was systematically analyzed to discover the most important factors governing the thermal performance of metallic TPS. A large number of relevant factors that influence the thermal analysis and thermal performance of metallic TPS were identified and quantified. Detailed finite element models were developed for predicting the thermal performance of design variations of the advanced metallic TPS concept mounted on a simple, unstiffened structure. The computational models were also used, in an automated iterative procedure, for sizing the metallic TPS to maintain the structure below a specified temperature limit. A statistical sensitivity analysis method, based on orthogonal matrix techniques used in robust design, was used to quantify and rank the relative importance of the various modeling and design factors considered in this study. Results of the study indicate that radiation, even in small gaps between panels, can reduce significantly the thermal performance of metallic TPS, so that gaps should be eliminated by design if possible. Thermal performance was also shown to be sensitive to several analytical assumptions that should be chosen carefully. One of the factors that was found to have the greatest effect on thermal performance is the heat capacity of the underlying structure. Therefore the structure and TPS should be designed concurrently.

Blosser, Max L.↗