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At least 379 records · Page 21

Geology and structure of Beta Regio, Venus - Results from Arecibo radar imaging

Arecibo radar images of a portion of the equatorial region of Venus provide the first high resolution (1.5- to 2.0-km) synoptic coverage of Beta Regio. Within this area, tessera, a complex deformed terrain, is identified as a major geologic unit with the largest region corresponding to a plateau on the east flank of the highland. Three models are proposed to explain the origin and evolution of Beta Regio and are identified as Mantle Plume/Passive Crust, Mantle Plume/Active Crust, and Mantle Plume/Crustal Spreading. The Mantle Plume/Passive Crust model appears to be the most consistent with the geology in this region and suggests that a plume disrupts a preexisting region of tessera.

Senske, D. A.↗

Congruity of genomic and epidemiological data in modelling of local cholera outbreaks

Cholera continues to be a global health threat. Understanding how cholera spreads between locations is fundamental to the rational, evidence-based design of intervention and control efforts. Traditionally, cholera transmission models have used cholera case-count data. More recently, whole-genome sequence data have qualitatively described cholera transmission. Integrating these data streams may provide much more accurate models of cholera spread; however, no systematic analyses have been performed so far to compare traditional case-count models to the phylodynamic models from genomic data for cholera transmission. Here, we use high-fidelity case-count and whole-genome sequencing data from the 1991 to 1998 cholera epidemic in Argentina to directly compare the epidemiological model parameters estimated from these two data sources. We find that phylodynamic methods applied to cholera genomics data provide comparable estimates that are in line with established methods. Our methodology represents a critical step in building a framework for integrating case-count and genomic data sources for cholera epidemiology and other bacterial pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spreading of thermonuclear flames on the neutron star in SAX J1808.4-3658: an observational tool

We analyse archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) proportional counter array (PCA) data of thermonuclear X-ray bursts from the 2002 outburst of the accreting millisecond pulsar SAX 51808.4-3658. We present evidence of a complex frequency modulation of oscillations during burst rise, and correlations among the time evolution of the oscillation frequency, amplitude, and the inferred burning region area. We discuss these findings in the context of a model, based on thermonuclear flame spreading on the neutron star surface, that can qualitatively explain these features. From our model, we infer that for the 2002 Oct. 15 thermonuclear burst, the ignition likely occurred in the mid-latitudes, the burning region took approx. 0.2 s to nearly encircle the equatorial region of the neutron star, and after that the lower amplitude oscillation originated from the remaining asymmetry of the burning front in the same hemisphere where the burst ignited. We emphasize that studies of the evolution of burst oscillation properties during burst rise can provide a powerful tool to understand thermonuclear flame spreading on neutron star surfaces under extreme physical conditions.

Bhattacharyya, Sudip↗

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

Modeling Tides, Planetary Waves, and Equatorial Oscillations in the MLT

Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization for gravity waves (GW), our 3D model reproduces some essential features that characterize the observed seasonal variations of tides and planetary waves in the upper mesosphere. In 2D, our model also reproduces the large Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) observed in this region at low latitudes. It is more challenging to describe these features combined in a more comprehensive self consistent model, and we give a progress report that outlines the difficulties and reports some success. In 3D, the GW's are partially absorbed by tides and planetary waves to amplify them. Thus the waves are less efficient in generating the QBO and SAO at equatorial latitudes. Some of this deficiency is compensated by the fact that the GW activity is observed to be enhanced at low latitudes. Increasing the GW source has the desired effect to boost the QBO, but the effect is confined primarily to the stratosphere. With increasing altitude, the meridional circulation becomes more important in redistributing the momentum deposited in the background flow by the GW's. Another factor involved is the altitude at which the GW's originate, which we had originally chosen to be the surface. Numerical experiments show that moving this source altitude to the top of the troposphere significantly increases the efficiency for generating the QBO without affecting much the tides and planetary waves in the model. Attention to the details in which the GW source comes into play thus appears to be of critical importance in modeling the phenomenology of the MLT. Among the suite of numerical experiments reported, we present a simulation that produced significant variations of tides and planetary waves in the upper mesosphere. The effect is related to the QBO generated in the model, and GW filtering is the likely cause.

Mengel, J. G.↗

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W/sq. m, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W/sq. m from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W/sq. m from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W/sq. m from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W/sq. m from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W/sq. m. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W/sq. m is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W/sq. m, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

effective radiative forcing↗

On the penetration of the 660 km phase change by mantle downflows

We present a simple analytic model of the interaction of cold convective downwelling currents with an endothermic phase change. The model describes the ponding and lateral spreading of downflows along the phase transition interface. A simple comparison of the vertical forces on the ponding material provides a necessary condition for a downflow to penetrate the phase boundary. This condition is fundamentally dependent on the geometry of the downflow. For planar downwellings, the model predicts a minimum ponding time before the structure can penetrate the phase boundary. For columnar (axisymmetric) downflows, there is no minimum time of spreading required before penetration can proceed. The model thus provides an explanation for the observation that in numerical models of three-dimensional convection with an endothermic phase change, cylindrical downflows penetrate the phase interface while planar ones do not. Since descending slabs in the Earth's mantle display a wide spectrum of geometries between planar and cylindrical (given various trench curvatures, as well as intersections of two or more subduction zones), this phenomenon may explain, in part, why some slabs appear to extend into the lower mantle while others are deflected at the 660 km discontinuity.

Bercovici, David↗

Effect of Particle Spreading Dynamics on Powder Bed Quality in Metal Additive Manufacturing

Powder spreading precedes creation of every new layer in powder bed additive manufacturing (AM). The powder spreading process can lead to powder layer defects such as porosity, poor surface roughness and particle segregation. Therefore, the creation of homogeneous layers is the first task for optimal part printing. Discrete element methods (DEM) powder spreading simulations are typically limited to a single layer and/or small number of particles. Therefore, results from such model configurations may not be generalized to multiple layer processes. In this study, a computationally efficient multi-layer powder spreading DEM simulation model is proposed. The model is calibrated experimentally using static Angle of Repose measurements. The adhesion model parameter, cohesive energy density is related to adhesive surface energy and strain energy release rate parameters. The model results show that interaction between particle and the powder spreading rake leads to noticeable variation in packing density, surface roughness, dynamic angle of repose (AOR), particle size distribution, and particle segregation. Finally, the powder model is experimentally validated using a recoater spreading rig to measure the dynamic AOR at spreading speeds consistent with recoating speeds and layer heights used in AM processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation and Applications of Cloud Climatologies from CALIOP

Clouds have a major impact on the Earth radiation budget and differences in the representation of clouds in global climate models are responsible for much of the spread in predicted climate sensitivity. Existing cloud climatologies, against which these models can be tested, have many limitations. The CALIOP lidar, carried on the CALIPSO satellite, has now acquired over two years of nearly continuous cloud and aerosol observations. This dataset provides an improved basis for the characterization of 3-D global cloudiness. Global average cloud cover measured by CALIOP is about 75%, significantly higher than for existing cloud climatologies due to the sensitivity of CALIOP to optically thin cloud. Day/night biases in cloud detection appear to be small. This presentation will discuss detection sensitivity and other issues associated with producing a cloud climatology, characteristics of cloud cover statistics derived from CALIOP data, and applications of those statistics.

Winker, David↗

Structure of nonevaporating sprays - Measurements and predictions

Structure measurements were completed within the dilute portion of axisymmetric nonevaporating sprays (SMD of 30 and 87 microns) injected into a still air environment, including: mean and fluctuating gas velocities and Reynolds stress using laser-Doppler anemometry; mean liquid fluxes using isokinetic sampling; drop sizes using slide impaction; and drop sizes and velocities using multiflash photography. The new measurements were used to evaluate three representative models of sprays: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, where slip between the phases was neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, where slip was considered but effects of drop interaction with turbulent fluctuations were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, where effects of both interphase slip and turbulent fluctuations were considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for drop motion. The LHF and DSF models were unsatisfactory for present test conditions-both underestimating flow widths and the rate of spread of drops. In contrast, the SSF model provided reasonably accurate predictions, including effects of enhanced spreading rates of sprays due to drop dispersion by turbulence, with all empirical parameters fixed from earlier work.

Solomon, A. S. P.↗

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Symposium (International) on Combustion, 19th, Technion Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel, August 8-13, 1982, Proceedings

Topics discussed are related to elementary reactions, reaction mechanisms and modeling, laminar flames, flame chemistry, turbulent reacting shear flows, turbulent premixed flames, turbulent combustion measurements, continuous combustors, detonation, detonation and explosion, heterogeneous detonation, propellant combustion, fire-ignition and thermal degradation, fire-flame spread and burning, fire-modeling, spray combustion, and droplet combustion. Coal combustion kinetics and mechanisms are considered along with coal combustion mechanisms and pyrolysis, coal combustion techniques, NOx in coal combustion, gaseous pollutants, soot and PAH, soot and inorganic pollutants, I.C. engine combustion, and ignition and extinction. Attention is given to intricate paths and simple steps in chemical kinetics and combustion, the formation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons by combustion, turbulent flame structure and speed in spark ignition engines, and unresolved problems in SOx, NOx, and soot control in combustion.

Source record↗

Mid-latitude clouds contribute to Arctic amplification via interactions with other climate feedbacks

Abstract Traditional feedback analyses, which assume that individual climate feedback mechanisms act independently and add linearly, suggest that clouds do not contribute to Arctic amplification. However, feedback locking experiments, in which the cloud feedback is disabled, suggest that clouds, particularly outside of the Arctic, do contribute to Arctic amplification. Here, we reconcile these two perspectives by introducing a framework that quantifies the interactions between radiative feedbacks, radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake, and atmospheric heat transport. We show that including the cloud feedback in a comprehensive climate model can result in Arctic amplification because of interactions with other radiative feedbacks. The surface temperature change associated with including the cloud feedback is amplified in the Arctic by the surface-albedo, Planck, and lapse-rate feedbacks. A moist energy balance model with a locked cloud feedback exhibits similar behavior as the comprehensive climate model with a disabled cloud feedback and further indicates that the mid-latitude cloud feedback contributes to Arctic amplification via feedback interactions. Feedback locking in the moist energy balance model also suggests that the mid-latitude cloud feedback contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification across comprehensive climate models. These results imply that constraining the mid-latitude cloud feedback will greatly reduce the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification. Furthermore, these results highlight a previously unrecognized non-local pathway for Arctic amplification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The effect of surface radiation on flame spread in a quiescent, microgravity environment

In most theories of laminar flame spread over solid combustibles, radiation is neglected. However, when gas motion is completely absent, which may occur in the quiescent, microgravity environment of a spacecraft, the importance of radiation compared to convection is enhanced. Here, a theoretical model is developed of flame spread over a thin solid fuel into an opposing flow of oxidizer, the opposing flow being present in the quiescent environment in flame-fixed coordinates, including the effects of radiative heat transfer from the fuel surface. Numerical solutions to the conservation equations in the gas and the solid phase that describe the spreading flame are presented for a variety of ambient conditions and surface emittances. When surface radiation is significant, the solid surface acts as a heat sink, causing the flame to cool, shrink in size, and spread more slowly. Better agreement with experiment for net heat transfer to the surface is obtained when surface radiation is included. For low ambient oxygen levels, radiative effects lead to flame extinction. A radiation/conduction parameter is identified that adequately describes the importance of surface radiation.

Bhattacharjee, S.↗

The Influence of Aqueous Dispersivity on Transport of Radiological Material at LANL MDA G - 20450

Aqueous dispersivity is a phenomenon by which a solute moving in groundwater mixes with water that does not contain the solute and becomes diluted. Solutes take paths of varying lengths through pore networks or experience slower velocities due to interactions with pore walls. Aqueous dispersivity leads to breakthrough curves with earlier arrival than expected in purely advective systems and persistent 'tails,' or late-arriving, dilute concentrations of the solute. Dispersivity can be longitudinal (in the direction of flow) or transverse (orthogonal to flow). LANL has disposed of radioactive material at Material Disposal Area (MDA) G since the late 1950's. Most of the disposed materials at MDA G are low-level waste (LLW), but other types of radioactive wastes are disposed or stored at the site. For example, there is a collection of remote-handled transuranic waste (RH-TRU) waste in 33 shafts, which were intended to be stored retrievably. Aqueous-phase radionuclides included in models of contaminant transport at MDA G are subject to dispersive processes in porous media of the vadose zone and saturated zone. To model dispersivity at MDA G probabilistically, we created site-specific distributions of aqueous dispersivity. First, we performed a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed publications, reports from other performance assessments of MDA G, and documentation from sites that were considered similar based on expert opinion, such as Yucca Mountain. Data were included from a wide range of sources, so that distributions developed based on the data reflect the current state of knowledge in properties of the subsurface environment. Data were grouped based on value type (e.g., determined via experiment or used in a different model), rock type, zone type (saturated or unsaturated), and site, and were weighted in the distributions according to their relevance to the site and zone type. We combined Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping techniques to produce approximate distributions of mean aqueous dispersivity. Distributions of dispersivity for saturated and unsaturated zone transport are differentiated by data weight and the length scales over which transport occurs. We find that underestimating or disregarding transverse dispersivity may lead to overstating simulated well capture in the saturated zone at MDA G. Neglecting transverse dispersivity is a common assumption due in part to use of one-dimensional transport models that do not consider solute spreading orthogonal to flow. Also, we find that variability in longitudinal dispersivity is associated with substantial travel time alterations in the MDA G unsaturated zone and in simulated contaminant breakthrough times at a downstream observation plane in the MDA G saturated zone. Finally, at large scales (>1000 m), a linear trend between the dispersivity coefficient and length over which transport occurs may overestimate the dispersivity coefficient. Future modeling work with application to solute spreading could include interacting advective and diffusive zones in the highly fractured basalt below MDA G. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modeling of combustion processes of stick propellants via combined Eulerian-Lagrangian approach

This research is motivated by the improved ballistic performance of large-caliber guns using stick propellant charges. A comprehensive theoretical model for predicting the flame spreading, combustion, and grain deformation phenomena of long, unslotted stick propellants is presented. The formulation is based upon a combined Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to simulate special characteristics of the two phase combustion process in a cartridge loaded with a bundle of sticks. The model considers five separate regions consisting of the internal perforation, the solid phase, the external interstitial gas phase, and two lumped parameter regions at either end of the stick bundle. For the external gas phase region, a set of transient one-dimensional fluid-dynamic equations using the Eulerian approach is obtained; governing equations for the stick propellants are formulated using the Lagrangian approach. The motion of a representative stick is derived by considering the forces acting on the entire propellant stick. The instantaneous temperature and stress fields in the stick propellant are modeled by considering the transient axisymmetric heat conduction equation and dynamic structural analysis.

Kuo, K. K.↗

An evidential approach to model-based satellite diagnosis

The paper presents an approach to the implementation of an automated satellite diagnosis capability which emphasizes techniques offering flexibility in the application of diagnostic strategies. The system utilizes a structural and behavioral model of the satellite; it uses a form of spreading activation to perform the diagnostic procedures on the model. A Dempster-Shafer evidential framework was implemented, making it possible to integrate evidence from the multiple sources necessary for building useful systems.

Bickmore, Timothy W.↗