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NASA NTRS2014

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗
NASA NTRS2014

First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) − E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

Sun: corona↗
NASA NTRS1975

Energy: An annotated bibliography

This bibliography is the first update of a previous energy bibliography dated August 1974. It contains approximately 3,300 selected references on energy and energy related topics from bibliographic sources dated August 1974 through December 1974. The references are arranged by date, with the latest works first, in subject categories. (1) Energy and power - general; resources, supply/demand, and forecasting; policy, legislation, and regulation; research and development, environment; consumption and economics; conservation; and systems analysis. (2) Energy and power sources - general; fossil fuels; hydrogen and other fuels; organic wastes and waste heat; nuclear; geothermal; solar; wind; ocean/water; magnetohydrodynamics and electrohydrodynamics; and gas and steam turbines. (3) Energy and power storage and transmission.

Blow, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

Cyr, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Atlas/Centaur-SOHO Pre-Launch News Conference

Live coverage of a pre-launch news conference on the Atlas/Centaur SOHO mission is presented. George Diller, NASA Public Affairs, introduces the panel. Floyd Curington, NASA Launch Manager, Kennedy Space Center, presents countdown activities. Pat Symons, Launch Vehicle Manager, NASA Lewis Research Center, analyzes the time duration from liftoff to spacecraft separation. Fabrizio Felici, SOHO Mission Director European Space Agency (ESA), explains the important features of SOHO, which includes a payload of 650 kilos and 12 major instruments with multisensors. Ken Sizemore, International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Project Manager Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), talks about the successful international collaboration between the ESA and NASA. Joel Tumbiolo, Launch Weather Officer United States Air Force (USAF, presented the weather forecast. SOHO was launched aboard an Atlas II rocket on November 23, 1995. The news conference ends with a brief question and answer period.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Monitoring of Observation Errors from Satellite Ozone Instruments in Assimilation

Ozone distributions derived from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instruments and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) have been assimilated in near-real time at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office since January 2000. Observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals are the differences between the incoming ozone data and the co-located short-term model forecast. They are routinely produced and monitored in the assimilation process. Using examples from the NOAA-14 and NOAA-16 SBUV/2 and the EP-TOMS instruments, it is demonstrated that the monitoring of time series of O-F residual statistics is an effective method of identifying time-dependent changes in the observation-error characteristics of ozone. In addition, the data assimilation system was used to assist the validation of updated calibration coefficients for the NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instrument. This assimilation-based monitoring work will be extended to ozone data from instruments on new satellites: Envisat EOS, Aqua, and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗
NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) Using GPS Measurements to Identify Global Ionospheric Storms in Near Real-Time

The solar wind interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere, eventually dissipating energy into the ionosphere and atmosphere. As a terminator, the ionosphere responds to magnetic storms, which is very important in understanding the energy coupling process between the Sun and the Earth and in forecasting space weather changes.The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility. Based on these measurements, global ionospheric TEC maps are generated with time resolution of from 5 minutes to hours. Using these maps, we can analyze the global evolution of ionospheric storms on temporal and spatial scales, which have been dificult to study before. We find that for certain types of storms (such as TID-driven), it is possible to identify them near onset and issue warning signals during the early stages. Main attention has been paid on northern hemispheric winter storms. Their common features and physical mechanisms are being investigated.

solar wind magnetospheres GPS ionosphere atmospher↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Auroral ovals versus flare ribbons: Optical footprints of explosive magnetic field reconfiguration in Earth’s magnetosphere and the Sun’s corona

Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.

V. M. Uritskiy↗
NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Clouds at/near the 2007 - 2009 Solar Minimum: Frequency of Occurrence and Some Unusual Properties

Magnetic clouds (MCs) have been identified for the period 2007 2009 (at/near the recent solar minimum) from Wind data, then confirmed through MC parameter fitting using a force-free model. A dramatic increase in the frequency of occurrence of these events took place from the two early years of 2007 (with five MCs) and 2008 (one MC) compared to 2009 (12 MCs). This pattern approximately mirrors the occurrence-frequency profile that was observed over a three-year interval 12 years earlier, with eight events in 1995, four in 1996, and 17 in 1997, but decreased overall by a factor of 0.62 in number. However, the average estimated axial field strength taken over all of the 18 events of 2007 - 2009 (called the "recent period" here) was only 11.0 nT, whereas |BO| for the 29 events of 1995 - 1997 (called the "earlier period" ) was 16.5 nT. This 33% average drop in |BO| is more or less consistent with the decreased three-year average interplanetary magnetic field intensity between these two periods, which shows a 23% drop. In the earlier period, the MCs were clearly of mixed types but predominantly of the South-to-North type, whereas those in the recent period are almost exclusively the North-to-South type; this change is consistent with global solar field changes predicted by Bothmer and Rust (Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 99, 139, 1997). As we have argued in earlier work (Lepping and Wu, J. Geophys. Res. 112, A10103, 2007), this change should make it possible to carry out (accurate short-term) magnetic storm forecasting by predicting the latter part of an MC from the earlier part, using a good MC parameter-fitting model with real-time data from a spacecraft at L1, for example. The recent set s average duration is 15.2 hours, which is a 27% decrease compared to that of the earlier set, which had an average duration of 20.9 hours. In fact, all physical aspects of the recent MC set are shown to drop with respect to the earlier set; e.g., as well as the average internal magnetic field drop, the recent set had a somewhat low average speed of 379 km/s (5% drop), and the average diameter had a 24% drop. Hence, compared to the earlier set, the recent set consists of events that are smaller, slightly slower, and weaker in every respect (and fewer in number), but in a relative sense the two three-year sets have similar frequency-of-occurrence profiles. It is also interesting that the two sets have almost the same average axial inclinations, i.e., axial latitude approx. = 31deg (in GSE). These MC characteristics are compared to relevant solar features and their changes. A preliminary assessment of the statistics on possible shocks and pressure pulses upstream of these recent MCs yields the following: About 28% of the MCs, at most, had shocks, and 33% had shocks and/or pressure pulses. These are low values, since typically the percentage of cases with shocks is about 50%, and the percentage with shocks and/or pressure pulses is usually about 75%.

Lepping. R. P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Monitoring and Assimilation of MIPAS and SCIAMACHY Ozone Data

Preliminary results are presented from experiments that integrate ozone observations from two ENVISAT-borne instruments with the ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The data used are ozone total column provided by the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) and stratospheric profiles from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument. The DAO's existing system sequentially assimilates the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 total and partial ozone column data. Incorporation of SCIAMACHY and MIPAS data is done in two stages. First, the observations are monitored. The monitoring consists of computing the differences between Envisat observations and the ozone system forecast, i.e. observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals. The O-F residuals are then analyzed using simple statistical methods to examine the spatial distribution of differences, which are large for SCIAMACHY near the terminator. In the second stage, the MIPAS data will be actively assimilated along with the SBW/2 observations; any preliminary results of note will be discussed.

Wargan, K.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk for Astronauts on Lunar Missions

During future lunar missions, exposure to solar particle events (SPEs) is a major safety concern for crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar surface or Earth-to-moon transit. NASA s new lunar program anticipates that up to 15% of crew time may be on EVA, with minimal radiation shielding. For the operational challenge to respond to events of unknown size and duration, a probabilistic risk assessment approach is essential for mission planning and design. Using the historical database of proton measurements during the past 5 solar cycles, a typical hazard function for SPE occurrence was defined using a non-homogeneous Poisson model as a function of time within a non-specific future solar cycle of 4000 days duration. Distributions ranging from the 5th to 95th percentile of particle fluences for a specified mission period were simulated. Organ doses corresponding to particle fluences at the median and at the 95th percentile for a specified mission period were assessed using NASA s baryon transport model, BRYNTRN. The cancer fatality risk for astronauts as functions of age, gender, and solar cycle activity were then analyzed. The probability of exceeding the NASA 30- day limit of blood forming organ (BFO) dose inside a typical spacecraft was calculated. Future work will involve using this probabilistic risk assessment approach to SPE forecasting, combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Steepened magnetosonic waves in the high beta plasma surrounding Comet Giacobini-Zinner

Studies of intense hydromagnetic waves at Giacobini-Zinner are extended to investigate the mode and direction of wave propagation. Simultaneous high-resolution measurements of electron density fluctuations demonstrate that long period waves propagate in the magnetosonic mode. Principal axis analyses of the long period waves and accompanying partial rotations show that the sum of the wave phase rotations is 360 deg, indicating that both are parts of the same wave oscillation. The time sequence of the steepened waveforms observed by ICE shows that the waves must propagate towards the Sun with Cph less than Vsw. Observations are consistent with wave generation by resonant ion ring or ion beam instability which predicts right-hand polarized waves propagating in the ion beam (solar) direction. The large amplitudes and small scale sizes of the cometary waves suggest that rapid pitch-angle scattering and energy transfer with energetic ions should occur. Since the waves are highly compressive, first-order Fermi acceleration is forecast.

Tsurutani, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Detection of Ionospheric Alfven Resonator Signatures in the Equatorial Ionosphere

The ionosphere response resulting from minimum solar activity during cycle 23/24 was unusual and offered unique opportunities for investigating space weather in the near-Earth environment. We report ultra low frequency electric field signatures related to the ionospheric Alfven resonator detected by the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite in the equatorial region. These signatures are used to constrain ionospheric empirical models and offer a new approach for monitoring ionosphere dynamics and space weather phenomena, namely aeronomy processes, Alfven wave propagation, and troposphere24 ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling mechanisms.

Simoes, Fernando↗
NASA NTRS2016

Ionospheric Storm Effects and Equatorial Plasma Irregularities During the 17-18 March 2015 Event

The intense magnetic storm on 17-18 March 2015 caused large disturbances of the ionosphere. Based on the plasma density (Ni) observations performed by the Swarm fleet of satellites, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission, and the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, we characterize the storm-related perturbations at low latitudes. All these satellites sampled the ionosphere in morning and evening time sectors where large modifications occurred. Modifications of plasma density are closely related to changes of the solar wind merging electric field (E (sub m)). We consider two mechanisms, prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF), as the main cause for the Ni redistribution, but effects of meridional wind are also taken into account. At the start of the storm main phase, the PPEF is enhancing plasma density on the dayside and reducing it on the nightside. Later, DDEF takes over and causes the opposite reaction. Unexpectedly, there appears during the recovery phase a strong density enhancement in the morning/pre-noon sector and a severe Ni reduction in the afternoon/evening sector, and we suggest a combined effect of vertical plasma drift, and meridional wind is responsible for these ionospheric storm effects. Different from earlier studies about this storm, we also investigate the influence of storm dynamics on the initiation of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs). Shortly after the start of the storm main phase, EPIs appear in the post-sunset sector. As a response to a short-lived decline of E (sub m), EPI activity appears in the early morning sector. Following the second start of the main phase, EPIs are generated for a few hours in the late evening sector. However, for the rest of the storm main phase, no more EPIs are initiated for more than 12 hours. Only after the onset of recovery phase does EPI activity start again in the post-midnight sector, lasting more than 7 hours.This comprehensive view of ionospheric storm effects and plasma irregularities adds to our understanding of conditions that lead to ionospheric instabilities.

Zhou, Yun-Liang↗
NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-Impacting CMEs

Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME's magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME's position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME's position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

Kay, C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

STEREO Space Weather and the Space Weather Beacon

The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.

Biesecker, D. A.↗