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DOE OSTI2020

IC Project: w19_hossfault “Modelling of stick-slip behavior in sheared granular fault gouge & nonlinear elasticity behavior in cracked solid”

Low frequency earthquakes, non-volcanic tremor, and acoustic emissions are examples of weak seismic signals that may help detect major seismic events, i.e., earthquakes. In a laboratory setting, in which stick-slip events are simulated, acoustic emissions are detected far from the stick-slip events. In both, field and laboratory scale cases, the acoustic emission signals are sourced or detected in a volume remote from the volume that spawns the earthquake. Therefore, it is relevant to establish the causal relationship between signals detected on passive, remote monitors and the dynamics of the elastic structures that launch important seismic events. The work conducted under this IC allocation allowed us to utilize a numerical model that let us follow this causality, i.e., examine and connect the dynamics in a granular system (fault gouge), to signals detected on passive remote monitors. It was demonstrated that stress chains are key in the dynamics of granular systems and that their evolution is the source of the acoustic emission.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Seismic Exploration of Small Bodies

As a result of the Phase I study, we have demonstrated that a mission to a smallbody (asteroid, comet) whose objective is to conduct a seismic experiment to understandthe interior structure, can be accomplished with small (<200 kg) spacecraft launched on asmall launch vehicle (Athena IIc).We modeled the seismic response of a small body and calculated that the energynecessary to propagate through the body and be detected by a seismometer. Thesecalculations provide guidance as to the type of energy source that is required. A simpleenergy source similar to a NASA standard initiator (NSI) can be used, although a singleNSI is insufficient. An NSI is an explosive pyrotechnic that is used to sever connectionson spacecraft. Use of such an energy source has illustrated two additional areas of study -anchoring of the source and sensor to the surface and understanding the efficiency ofenergy propagation from the source into the surface.The spacecraft has the ability to carry and deploy a series of source/sensors toconduct the experiment by placing them on the surface. We identified a suite of candidatenear-Earth asteroids as targets and used one 1991VG as the target to calculate the missiontrajectory and ∆V requirements. Spacecraft and launch vehicle performance are launchthat any of the candidates could be reached with appropriate mass and launch margins.Sources and sensors are deployed from arm attached to the spacecraft. Thespacecraft maneuvers next to the target body and presses the sensor against the surfaceand releases it. After emplacing all of the surface packages, the sensors are monitored fora period of time to measure the seismic noise. Finally, the active seismic experiment isconducted.The work conducted during Phase I demonstrates that a small mission can be designed to conduct an active seismic experiment on a small near-Earth body. Whileother targets may require more performance, the basic architecture is viable for anytarget.We have identified a number of specific technical areas that require more detailed study. Those areas are largely focused on the detailed analysis and design of the source mechanism and anchoring it to the surface. Such topics will be part of a Phase IIproposal.

Spacecraft↗

DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗

DOE OSTI2021

Challenges and Potential of Waveform Modeling for Crustal Scale Predictions

Waveform modeling is crucial to improving our understanding of observed seismograms. Forward simulation of wavefields provides quantitative methods of testing interactions between complicated source functions and the propagation medium. Here, we discuss three experiments designed to improve under standing of high frequency seismic wave propagation. First, we compare observed and predicted travel times of crustal phases for a set of real observed earthquakes with calculations and synthetic seismograms. Second, we estimate the frequency content of a series of nearly co-located earthquakes of varying magnitude for which we have a relatively well- known 1D velocity model. Third, we apply stochastic perturbations on top of a 3D tomographic model and qualitatively assess how those variations map to differences in the seismograms. While different in scope and aim, these three vignettes illustrate the current state of crustal scale waveform modeling and the potential for future studies to better constrain the structure of the crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Atmospheric Specifications into Seismoacoustic Event Localization

This report investigates the integration of infrasound and seismic data to improve event localization accuracy, specifically focusing on a surface explosion at the Utah Training and Testing Range (UTTR). Utilizing the Seismoacoustic Bayesian Event Locator (SABEL) framework, we incorporated atmospheric specifications derived from Ground to Space (G2S) profiles to enhance celerity-range priors. Our analysis revealed that while the combination of infrasound and seismic observations significantly reduced localization uncertainty, challenges remained, particularly with returns at distances less than 200 km from the source and the influence of specific observations on location estimates. The results indicate that broader celerity distributions, such as those from Blom et al. (2020), facilitate better alignment with ground truth locations compared to narrower models. Overall, this work demonstrates the promise of seismoacoustic approaches in refining event localization and highlights the need for further exploration of celerity-range models to ensure reliable outcomes.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring

Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. Here, in this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine.

geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Effectiveness of Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test Detector Schemes in Seismic Event Detection and the Avoidance of Nontarget Signals

Cross-correlation techniques have played a long-standing and pivotal role in seismic event monitoring. However, the performance of correlation-based detectors is challenged by nuisance seismicity, or nontarget signals. Such detections are a problem when the mission is to automatically map events to the correct source region. Using aftershocks of the 2014 $M_w$ 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake, we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing a dynamic correlation processor framework in a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) detector configuration to minimize nontarget detections. A GLRT maximizes a detection statistic with respect to one or more unknown parameters. In this case, the detection statistic is a template signal match against the waveform in a window sliding over a data stream, and the unknown parameter is an index variable indicating group membership of the template event or events. Detected events are assigned to the event group that yields the largest detection statistic. In this work, our results show that a GLRT detector will outperform a suite of independently operating correlation and subspace detectors in terms of having a lower nontarget detection rate at a given missed detection rate. We also show that a GLRT detector composed of a few high-rank subspace detectors has a slightly higher nontarget detection rate, but a significantly lower missed detection rate, than a GLRT detector composed of many low-rank subspace detectors. The high-rank GLRT configuration produced impressive results even with marginal data (single channel, single station, and very low time bandwidth product), which bodes well for the utility of building efficient aftershock classification systems and global monitoring systems at larger scales. However, future work is required to assess performance at the regional scale and to assess the performance of the system at detecting target events not used in the detector template creation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Mass Wasting In Planetary Environments: Implications For Seismicity

On Earth, mass wasting events such as rock falls and landslides are well known conse-quences of seismic activity. Through a variety of re-mote sensing techniques, tectonic faults have been pos-itively identified on all four of the inner planets, Earth's Moon, several outer planet satellites, and aster-oids. High-resolution imaging has furthermore ena-bled positive identification of mass wasting events on many of these bodies. On Mars, it has been suggested that fallen boulders may be indicative of pale-omarsquakes. On the Moon, meteor impacts and moonquakes have likewise been suggested as potential triggering mechanisms for mass wasting. Indeed, we know from the Apollo era that the Moon experienc-es a wide variety of seismicity. Seismicity estimates play an important role in creat-ing regional geological characterizations, which are useful not only for understanding a planet's formation and evolution, but also of key importance to site selec-tion for landed missions. Here we investigate the re-gional effects of seismicity in planetary environments with the goal of determining whether surface features such as landslides and boulder trails on the Moon, Mars, and Mercury could be triggered by fault motion. We attempt to quantify the amount of near-source ground shaking necessary to mobilize the mate-rial observed in various instances of mass wasting.

seismicity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrating HPC simulations and physical experiments to characterize the effects of gamma radiation on seismic protective devices

Seismic protective systems, composed of seismic isolators and dampers, can substantially reduce the effects of earthquake shaking on nuclear power plants and components therein. To enable the use of these devices to protect equipment inside a plant and close to a source of radiation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a project at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the University at Buffalo to characterize the effects of absorbed gamma dose on their mechanical properties. An early task in the project was to determine the exposure time required in the INL Foss Therapy Services (FTS) 60 Co gamma irradiator to achieve a target absorbed dose in the materials used to construct isolators and dampers, including fluids, polymers, composites, and metals. This task required the novel integration of high-performance computing (HPC), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) simulations, and irradiation experiments using Fricke dosimetry. An MCNP model of the FTS irradiator at INL was developed and validated using Fricke dosimetry. Simulations of three experiments in the irradiator, two with Fricke vials only and one with Fricke vials and a large-size isolator, predicted the Fricke-measured absorbed dose rate to within 15% in all three cases, providing high confidence in the calculation of the gamma dose absorbed in the materials comprising the seismic protective devices. The simulations demonstrated that the effects of photon scattering on absorbed dose rate in the FTS irradiator are negligible for test articles installed close to the cobalt sources and near the rear of the irradiator. The validated MCNP model of the FTS irradiator is being used to support ongoing DOE-funded experiments on seismic protective devices and could be applied to future, non-seismic-related experiments. In conclusion, the novel validation process successfully deployed for the FTS irradiator at INL could be applied to other irradiators, requiring new MCNP models and simulations, and irradiation experiments using dosimeters.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2017

SIIOS in Alaska: Testing an "In-Vault" Option for a Europa Lander Seismometer Experiment

The icy moons of Europa and Enceladus are thought to have global subsurface oceans in contact with mineral-rich silicate interiors, likely providing the three ingredients needed for life as we know it: liquid water, essential chemicals, and a source of energy. The possibility of life forming in their subsurface oceans relies in part on transfer of oxidants from the irradiated ice surface to the sheltered ocean below. Constraining the mechanisms and location of material exchange between the ice surface, the ice shell, and the subsurface ocean, however, is not possible without knowledge of ice thickness and liquid water depths. In a future lander-based experiment seismic measurements will be a key geophysical tool for obtaining this critical knowledge. The Seismometer to Investigate Ice and Ocean Structure (SIIOS) field-tests flight-ready technologies and develops the analytical methods necessary to make a seismic study of Europa and Enceladus a reality. We have been performing small-array seismology with a flight-candidate sensor in analog environments that exploit passive sources. Determining the depth to a subsurface ocean and any intermediate bodies of water is a priority for Ocean Worlds missions as it allows assessment of the habitability of these worlds and provides vital information for evaluating the spacecraft technologies required to access their oceans.

Bray, Veronica J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A large normal-fault earthquake at the junction of the Tonga trench and the Louisville ridge

Long-period vertical-component Rayleigh waves are inverted in order to determine the source mechanism of the October 10, 1977 earthquake that occurred in the oceanic plate at the junction of the Tonga-Kermadec trench systems with the aseismic Louisville ridge. The cause was predominantly normal faulting on a plane striking roughly parallel to the trench, with a seismic moment of 1.7 x 10 to the 27th dyn cm. A focal depth of 20 km is determined by waveform modeling, but the actual rupture may have extended to 30 or 40 km. Two sources separated by 16 s comprised the event, which experienced an inferred rupture velocity of 3.5 km/sec. The interpretation that the earthquake was caused by gravitational pull due to the sinking slab implies that the Louisville ridge causes some degree of local decoupling between the plates. This event may be associated with the breakup of the Osbourn seamount. Alternatively, the earthquake may have resulted from tensional plate bending stress, as implied by its relatively shallow depth.

Eissler, H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

The propagation of seismic waves, misinformation, and disinformation from the 2024-10-05 M 4.5 Iran earthquake

The 2024-10-05 Iran M 4.5 earthquake took place at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. We perform a discrimination and moment tensor analysis and identify a shallow-dipping, reverse fault source commensurate with the compressional setting of the Iranian interior. Nonetheless, the event's aftermath saw widespread dissemination of misinformation, and potentially active disinformation, concluding that it was in fact a test of an Iranian nuclear weapon. The 'evidence' for many of these claims was based on inaccurate interpretation of seismic data. In this paper, we analyze how geophysical 'fake news' propagated through social media (mainly Twitter/X) following this event, eventually gaining traction in mainstream, earned media. This event is an illustrative warning of how seismic data can be misinterpreted and/or manipulated in public discourse.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recommended Practices for Managing Induced Seismicity Risk Associated with Geologic Carbon Storage

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method to help reduce or eliminate atmospheric CO 2 emissions. The sequestered CO 2 is originally captured from the atmosphere or from a stationary industrial source and subsequently injected into a deep subsurface porous rock formation. To facilitate the successful deployment of field scale carbon storage projects, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing tools and protocols for defensible, science-based frameworks to quantify and mitigate risks associated with the long-term storage of CO 2 . This protocol specifically addresses the risk of induced seismicity due to injection in a geologic carbon storage (GCS) site. This integrated and risk-based protocol is a product of the U.S. DOE Fossil Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a multi-year collaborative research effort of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). These recommended practices describe a set of 7 steps to evaluate, manage, communicate, and mitigate the risk of induced seismicity at GCS sites. The base methodology of the recommended practices follows a framework similar to the Protocol for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (Majer et al., 2012), developed for the Geothermal Technology Office of the U.S. DOE. These recommended practices present a framework to systematically assess the induced seismicity risk and quantify the associated uncertainties. These recommendations are based on current research and are sufficiently general to allow for modification and application to a variety of different types of sites. The substance of the recommended practices contained herein includes both technical and non-technical issues, and covers all operational stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They start at the preliminary risk assessment phase, continue through site assessment and characterization, include best practice communication and seismic monitoring plan methodologies, discuss the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard and risk, and closes with an exploration of operational management plans, which conclude when the induced seismicity risk abates back to background level. The focus of these recommendations is on actively managing the risks associated with induced seismicity by developing an actionable risk management plan that starts at the project proposal stage and continues through site closure through an iterative assessment and improvement process. The audience of this document is expected to include all interested stakeholders (e.g., operators, project developers, regulators, and the general public) and is expressly written to be accessible to this broad range of partners. This document is intended to disseminate knowledge gained through recent advances in the science of induced seismicity hazard and risk assessments, to provide updates based on recent experience gained by similar corollary injection-induced seismicity cases, and most importantly to establish a uniform framework to carry out a successful induced seismicity risk management plan for carbon storage projects in the future. These recommendations do not directly address any domestic or international regulations or standards. A complementary NRAP report makes recommendations for the assessment and management of environmental subsurface risks associated with unwanted fluid migration at GCS sites (Thomas et al., 2021) and should be referred to in order to address those additional GCS site risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recommended Practices for Managing Induced Seismicity Risk Associated with Geologic Carbon Storage

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method to help reduce or eliminate atmospheric CO 2 emissions. The sequestered CO 2 is originally captured from the atmosphere or from a stationary industrial source and subsequently injected into a deep subsurface porous rock formation. To facilitate the successful deployment of field scale carbon storage projects, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing tools and protocols for defensible, science-based frameworks to quantify and mitigate risks associated with the long-term storage of CO 2 . This protocol specifically addresses the risk of induced seismicity due to injection in a geologic carbon storage (GCS) site. This integrated and risk-based protocol is a product of the U.S. DOE Fossil Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a multi-year collaborative research effort of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). These recommended practices describe a set of 7 steps to evaluate, manage, communicate, and mitigate the risk of induced seismicity at GCS sites. The base methodology of the recommended practices follows a framework similar to the $\textit{Protocol for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems}$ (Majer et al., 2012), developed for the Geothermal Technology Office of the U.S. DOE. These recommended practices present a framework to systematically assess the induced seismicity risk and quantify the associated uncertainties. These recommendations are based on current research and are sufficiently general to allow for modification and application to a variety of different types of sites. The substance of the recommended practices contained herein includes both technical and non-technical issues, and covers all operational stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They start at the preliminary risk assessment phase, continue through site assessment and characterization, include best practice communication and seismic monitoring plan methodologies, discuss the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard and risk, and closes with an exploration of operational management plans, which conclude when the induced seismicity risk abates back to background level. The focus of these recommendations is on actively managing the risks associated with induced seismicity by developing an actionable risk management plan that starts at the project proposal stage and continues through site closure through an iterative assessment and improvement process. The audience of this document is expected to include all interested stakeholders (e.g., operators, project developers, regulators, and the general public) and is expressly written to be accessible to this broad range of partners. This document is intended to disseminate knowledge gained through recent advances in the science of induced seismicity hazard and risk assessments, to provide updates based on recent experience gained by similar corollary injection-induced seismicity cases, and most importantly to establish a uniform framework to carry out a successful induced seismicity risk management plan for carbon storage projects in the future. These recommendations do not directly address any domestic or international regulations or standards. A complementary NRAP report makes recommendations for the assessment and management of environmental subsurface risks associated with unwanted fluid migration at GCS sites (Thomas et al., 2021) and should be referred to in order to address those additional GCS site risks

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

The Apollo passive seismic experiment

The completed data set obtained from the 4-station Apollo seismic network includes signals from approximately 11,800 events of various types. Four data sets for use by other investigators, through the NSSDC, are in preparation. Some refinement of the lunar model based on seismic data can be expected, but its gross features remain as presented two years ago. The existence of a small, molten core remains dependent upon the analysis of signals from a single, far-side impact. Analysis of secondary arrivals from other sources may eventually resolve this issue, as well as continued refinement of the magnetic field measurements. Evidence of considerable lateral heterogeneity within the moon continues to build. The mystery of the much meteoroid flux estimate derived from lunar seismic measurements, as compared with earth-based estimates, remains; although, significant correlations between terrestrial and lunar observations are beginning to emerge.

Latham, G. V.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automatic Calibration of a Geomechanical Model from Sparse Data for Estimating Stress in Deep Geological Formations

Summary In this study, we demonstrate geomechanical modeling with fully automatic parameter calibration to estimate the full geomechanical stress fields of a prospective US carbon dioxide (CO2) storage site, based on sparse measurement data. The goal is to compute full stress tensor field estimates (principal stresses and orientations) that are maximally compatible with observations within the constraints of the model assumptions, thereby extending pointwise, incomplete partial stress measurement to a simulated full formation stress field, as well as a rough assessment of the associated error. We use the Perch site, located in Otsego County, Michigan, USA, as our case study. The input data consist of partial stress tensor information inferred from in-situ borehole tests, geophysical well logs, and processing of seismic data. A static earth model (SEM) of the site was developed, and geomechanical simulation functionality of the open-source MATLAB Reservoir Simulation Toolbox (MRST) was used to model the stress field. Adjoint-based nonlinear optimization was used to adjust boundary conditions and material properties to calibrate simulated results of observations. Results were interpreted through a Bayesian framework. The focus of this paper is to demonstrate how the fully automatic calibration procedure works and discuss the results obtained; it does not attempt a detailed analysis of the stress field in the context of the proposed CO2 storage initiatives. Our work is part of a larger effort to noninvasively determine in-situ stresses in deep formations considered for CO2 storage. Guided by previously published research on geomechanical model calibration, our work presents a novel calibration approach supporting a potentially large number of linear or nonlinear calibration parameters to produce results optimally agreeing with available measurements and thus extend partial pointwise estimates to full tensor fields compatible with the physics of the site.

Engineering↗