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At least 379 records · Page 21

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trace elements and their isotopes in streams and rivers

The occurrence and speciation of trace elements in streams and rivers are controlled by interconnected hydrogeological, biogeochemical, and anthropogenic factors that include rock weathering, climate, vegetation, and land use within the watershed. This chapter provides a broad overview of trace element abundance, speciation, and mobility in streams and rivers, including an assessment of how trace elements are partitioned into dissolved, colloidal, and particulate phases. We also discuss how trace elements are mobilized into stream networks and transformed during transport. Select isotopic systems are reviewed to provide examples of how isotopic analyses can be used to understand geochemical and anthropogenic processes.

Herndon, Elizabeth [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291945493)↗

Ultra-low-level measurements of airborne fission products from the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accident using high volume collection systems at Savannah River National Laboratory

For this study, ultra-low-level measurements of radionuclides in air have been conducted at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to determine the atmospheric concentration of fission products released following the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accident on March 11, 2011. Air filter samples were acquired from two high-volume collection systems (a traditional filter-based system and an electrostatic precipitator-based system) to monitor airborne radionuclide concentrations in the period covering from 2 weeks to 3 years after the disaster. The world-wide spread of low-level concentrations of airborne fission products from the Fukushima event provided a unique opportunity to demonstrate SRNL's electrostatic particle collection technology and other improvements in environmental monitoring developed at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Detecting and analyzing the release allowed a comprehensive test of SRS systems for monitoring environmental radioactivity. Gamma-ray-emitting fission products ( 131,132 I, 134,136,137 Cs, and 129,132 Te) and cosmogenic isotopes ( 7 Be and 22 Na) in air were detected and quantified by high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy at concentrations as low as 0.07 μBq per standard cubic meter (SCM) (50 mBq total 137 Cs), while plutonium content was quantified by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) at concentrations as low as 6.5 × 10 –21 g/SCM (3.0 fg 239+240 Pu). Isotope concentrations measured at SRNL from gamma-ray spectroscopy were compared to independent measurements from Chapel Hill, NC, located approximately 370 km (230 mi) NE of SRNL. Meteorological modeling was also used to predict radionuclide transport from the location of release to both measurement locations.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Characterization of Iron and Organic Carbon Colloids in Boreal Rivers and Their Fate at High Salinity

Riverine colloids are important carriers of macronutrients, trace metals, and pollutants into marine waters. The aim of the current study was to extend the understanding of iron (Fe) and organic carbon (OC) colloids in boreal rivers and their fate at higher salinities. X-ray absorbance spectroscopy (XAS) and dynamic light scattering (DLS) were combined to explore Fe speciation and colloidal characteristics such as size and surface charge and how these are affected at increasing salinity. XAS confirmed the presence of two Fe phases in the river waters—Fe-organic matter (OM) complexes and Fe(oxy)hydroxides. From DLS measurements on filtered and unfiltered samples, three particle size distributions were identified. The smallest particles (10–40 nm) were positively charged and suggested to consist of essentially bare Fe (oxy)hydroxide nanoparticles. The largest particles (300–900 nm) were dominated by Fe(oxy)hydroxides associated with chromophoric molecular matter. An intermediate size distribution (100–200 nm) with a negative surface charge was presumably dominated by OM and containing Fe-OM complexes. Increasing the salinity resulted in a removal of the smallest distribution. Unexpectedly, both the intermediate and largest size distributions were still detected at high salinity. The collective results suggest that Fe(oxy) hydroxides and Fe-OM complexes are both found across the wide size range studied and that colloidal size does not necessarily reflect either Fe speciation or stability toward salinity-induced aggregation. The findings further demonstrate that also particles beyond the typically studied <0.45-μm size range should be considered to fully understand the riverine transport and fate of macronutrients, trace metals, and pollutants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure of an Atmospheric River over Australia and the Southern Ocean. Part I: Tropical and Midlatitude Water Vapor Fluxes

An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Australia-Tasmania and the Southern Ocean during the Austral summer on 28-29 January 2018 during the SOCRATES campaign is analyzed using both a modeling and observational approach. Gulfstream-V dropsonde measurements and GPM radar analyses were used in conjunction with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with water vapor tracers to investigate the relative contributions of tropical and mid-latitude moisture sources to the AR. Moisture associated with a monsoonal tropical depression became entrained into a mid-latitude frontal system that extended to 60°S over the Southern Ocean reaching the associated low pressure system 850 km off the east coast of Antarctica – effectively connecting the tropics and the polar region. Tropical moisture contributed to about 50% of the precipitable water within the AR. The tropical contribution to precipitation decreased with latitude, from > 70% over the Australian continent, to ~50% off the Australian coast, to less than 10% poleward of 60°S. Precipitation in the AR conformed to a seeder-feeder model, the seeder precipitation forming primarily from tropical sourced moisture above the altitude of the 0°C isotherm, and the feeder precipitation sourced from mid-latitude sourced moisture below the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) through the core of the AR reached above 500 kg m-1s-1 during 1200 UTC 28 January to 0600 UTC 29 January 29, 1.29 times the average amount of water carried by the world’s largest river, the Amazon. The high IVT strength might be attributed to the higher water vapor content associated with the warmer temperatures in Austral summer.

Rauber, Robert M.↗

Evaluating Uncertainty and Modes of Variability for Antarctic Atmospheric Rivers

Abstract Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are driven by their synoptic environments and lead to profound and varying impacts along the coastlines and over the continent. The definition and detection of ARs over Antarctica accounts for large uncertainty in AR metrics, and consequently, impacts quantification. We find that Antarctic‐specific detection tools consistently capture the AR footprint inland over ice sheets, whereas most global detection tools do not. Large‐scale synoptic environments and associated ARs, however, are broadly consistent across detection tools. Using data from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project and global reanalyses, we quantify the uncertainty in Antarctic AR metrics and evaluate large‐scale environments in the context of decadal and interannual modes of variability. The Antarctic western hemisphere has stronger connections to both decadal and interannual modes of variability compared to East Antarctica, and the Indian Ocean Dipole’s influence on Antarctic ARs is stronger while in phase with El Nino Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolving Interior Mixing Regimes in a Tidal River Plume

Microstructure profiling was utilized to estimate vertical mixing (via vertical turbulent buoyancy flux) during a tidal pulse in the interior Merrimack River plume in calm winds. Multiple stratified shear mixing regimes appear and evolve with time. Initially the plume acts as a nearfield jet, with mixing in the plume (plume layer mixing) and over the plume-ambient interface (nearfield interfacial mixing). As the plume grows, interfacial mixing is suppressed offshore of the nearfield as currents slow, diminishing turbulent exchange between plume and shelf. At the end of ebb, ambient tidal currents reverse direction below plume, initiating another mode of internal, interfacial mixing (coined here as tidal interfacial mixing), allowing exchange between plume and ambient waters offshore. This work highlights previously unreported tidally modulated mixing within the near and midfield of a river plume.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drivers of Phytoplankton Variability in and Near the Pearl River Estuary, South China Sea During Typhoon Hato (2017): A Numerical Study

The Pearl River estuary-coastal system in the Northern South China Sea is frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Previous in-situ and remote sensing studies have found typhoons can enhance phytoplankton biomass and induce blooms in this region. However, the mechanistic links between phytoplankton blooms and typhoons have not been well elucidated due to the interplay of multiple processes along the land-ocean-atmosphere interfaces. Unravelling these interactions will have to rely on an integrated modelling system. In this work, we constructed a realistic, 3-dimensional, land-ocean-atmosphere modelling system with the marine ecosystem and sediment components for the China Great Bay Area. By using the integrated modelling system, we quantitatively investigated phytoplankton response to hydrological conditions variations under Typhoon Hato (2017), a strong typhoon case. Passive tracer experiments showed that with high river discharge induced by heavy rainfall, the residence time of Lingding Bay is as short as 15-day, less than half of that under the climatological discharge. The increase in freshwater pulse washed out the phytoplankton biomass within Lingding Bay. While for the offshore region, the source and sink terms analysis showed that the increase of phytoplankton biomass in the first week was because of the uplift of nutrient-rich subsurface water, while in the second week was because of the seaward propagated nearshore high phytoplankton biomass water. While riverine nutrients support phytoplankton growth in the third week, a large part of phytoplankton biomass was lost to zooplankton grazing, showing the system shifted from the bottom-up control to the top-down control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Atmospheric Rivers on Groundwater: Lessons Learned From an Extreme Wet Year

Abstract In the coastal regions of the western United States, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are associated with the largest precipitation generating storms and contribute up to half of annual precipitation, but the impact of ARs on the integrated hydrologic cycle, specifically on groundwater storage and hydrodynamics, is largely unknown. To better explore the hydrologic behavior of AR versus non‐AR event precipitation, we present a novel combination of two water tracking methods (one in the atmosphere and one in the subsurface) to explicitly track the full lifecycle of water parcels generated by ARs. Simulations of northern California's Cosumnes River watershed during the record wet 2017 water year are performed via the coupling of a high‐resolution regional climate model and a land surface‐groundwater model accounting for lateral groundwater flow. Despite ARs contributing more precipitation than non‐AR storms, we find less AR water is preferentially stored in aquifers by year end. Fractionally, ARs result in 300% less snow derived groundwater‐recharged compared to non‐AR precipitation. Rain‐on‐snow (RoS) plays an important role in AR‐driven discharge, where over 50% of total discharge from ARs snow is from RoS events. Finally, despite record‐breaking annual precipitation, simulated groundwater depletion occurs by year end due to estimates of groundwater pumping activities. The results from these simulations serve as a partial analogue of future hydrologic conditions where ARs are expected to intensify and provide a greater fraction of annual precipitation due to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving River Routing Using a Differentiable Muskingum‐Cunge Model and Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Recently, rainfall-runoff simulations in small headwater basins have been improved by methodological advances such as deep neural networks (NNs) and hybrid physics-NN models—particularly, a genre called differentiable modeling that intermingles NNs with physics to learn relationships between variables. However, hydrologic routing simulations, necessary for simulating floods in stem rivers downstream of large heterogeneous basins, had not yet benefited from these advances and it was unclear if the routing process could be improved via coupled NNs. We present a novel differentiable routing method (δMC-Juniata-hydroDL2) that mimics the classical Muskingum-Cunge routing model over a river network but embeds an NN to infer parameterizations for Manning's roughness (n) and channel geometries from raw reach-scale attributes like catchment areas and sinuosity. The NN was trained solely on downstream hydrographs. Synthetic experiments show that while the channel geometry parameter was unidentifiable, n can be identified with moderate precision. With real-world data, the trained differentiable routing model produced more accurate long-term routing results for both the training gage and untrained inner gages for larger subbasins (>2,000 km2) than either a machine learning model assuming homogeneity, or simply using the sum of runoff from subbasins. The n parameterization trained on short periods gave high performance in other periods, despite significant errors in runoff inputs. The learned n pattern was consistent with literature expectations, demonstrating the framework's potential for knowledge discovery, but the absolute values can vary depending on training periods. The trained n parameterization can be coupled with traditional models to improve national-scale hydrologic flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation

Abstract Colorado River streamflow has decreased 19% since 2000. Spring (March‐April‐May) weather strongly influences Upper Colorado River streamflow because it controls not only water input but also when snow melts and how much energy is available for evaporation when soils are wettest. Since 2000, spring precipitation decreased by 14% on average across 26 unregulated headwater basins, but this decrease did not fully account for the reduced streamflow. In drier springs, increases in energy from reduced cloud cover, and lowered surface albedo from earlier snow disappearance, coincided with potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases of up to 10%. Combining spring precipitation decreases with PET increases accounted for 67% of the variance in post‐2000 streamflow deficits. Streamflow deficits were most substantial in lower elevation basins (<2,950 m), where snowmelt occurred earliest, and precipitation declines were largest. Refining seasonal spring precipitation forecasts is imperative for future water availability predictions in this snow‐dominated water resource region.

Geology↗

Organic molecules are deterministically assembled in variably inundated river sediments, but drivers remain unclear

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is central to ecosystem function. A fundamental challenge is understanding the processes leading to variation in the chemistry of organic molecules that comprise DOM. Here we study these processes in variably inundated riverbed sediments, as an understudied, yet ubiquitous component of rivers. Using null-model approaches adopted from community ecology, we found that within-site variation in environmental conditions caused non-random (i.e., deterministic) shifts in DOM chemistry. Deterministic shifts were observed across diverse biomes, though the strength of determinism varied substantially. We found that the strength of determinism decreased with increasing sediment moisture, but in the form of a constraint space. Many systems fell below the upper constraint boundary, however. We propose a conceptual model based on our results and other publications in which DOM assemblages are hypothesized to be increasingly deterministic across the continuum from the river water column to saturated sediment pore spaces to unsaturated and dry soils/sediments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced flood synchrony and downstream severity in the Delaware River under rising temperatures

River floods threaten life and economic stability, with risks increasing globally, especially in densely populated coastal areas. In mountainous coastal watersheds like the Delaware River Basin, rising temperature is projected to reduce snowpack, reshaping upstream–downstream flood dynamics. However, the impact on flood synchronization between upland tributaries and estuarine mainstems remains poorly understood. Using multidecadal streamflow simulations from a high-resolution hydrological model, we find significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of synchronized floods under future warming scenarios, particularly severe floods (above the 75 th percentile). Under higher warming scenarios, snowpack and rain-on-snow floods in headwater subbasins nearly vanish. Surprisingly, this regime shift amplifies estuarine flooding by enhancing synchronization between historically snow-dominated subbasins and their downstream counterparts. Despite intensified synchronization and flood magnitude, cold-season flood risk declines due to fewer rain-on-snow events. Conversely, summer floods grow larger, more frequent, and synchronized, driving a seasonal reconfiguration of flood risk that should be considered in future mitigation strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Consistency of Water Scarcity Inferences between Large-Scale Hydrologic and Node-Based Water System Model Representations of the Upper Colorado River Basin

Water resources model development and simulation efforts have seen rapid growth in recent decades to aid evaluations and planning around water scarcity and allocation. Models are typically developed by two distinct communities: (1) large-scale hydrologic modelers emphasizing hydroclimatological processes, and (2) water systems modelers emphasizing environmental, infrastructural, and institutional features that shape water scarcity at the local basin level. This study assesses whether two representative models from these communities produce consistent insights when evaluating the water scarcity vulnerabilities in the Upper Colorado River Basin within the state of Colorado. Results showed that although the regional-scale model [model for scale adaptive river transport (MOSART)—water management (WM)] can capture the aggregate effect of all water operations in the basin, it underestimates the subbasin-scale variability in specific user’s vulnerabilities. The basin-scale water systems model [State of Colorado’s Stream Simulation Model (StateMod)] suggests a larger variance of scarcity across the basin’s water users due to its more detailed accounting of local water allocation infrastructure and institutional processes. This model intercomparison highlights potentially significant limitations of large-scale studies in seeking to evaluate water scarcity and actionable adaptation strategies, as well as ways in which basin-scale water systems model’s information can be used to better inform water allocation and shortage when used in tandem with larger-scale hydrological modeling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genomic insights into local adaptation and migration success in reintroduced Coho Salmon of the Wenatchee River basin

ABSTRACT Objective Reintroduction of salmonids into regions where they have been extirpated is a common conservation strategy that is often implemented through natural recolonization, translocation of natural populations, or hatchery-based programs. Locally adapting to specific environmental conditions is critical for long-term population viability, particularly for species like Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch, which face diverse selective pressures during their migration. This study focused on the mid-Columbia River Coho Salmon reintroduction program managed by Yakama Nation Fisheries, which has successfully reintroduced Coho Salmon into the Wenatchee and Methow River basins, Washington. Notably, these populations have adapted to the longer migration route than those in the founding stock, with selection favoring individuals with an earlier arrival time and that can navigate a 15-km, high-gradient canyon to reach optimal spawning grounds. The objectives of this study were to investigate whether specific genomic regions are under selection for traits associated with return location and timing in Coho Salmon. Methods Low-coverage whole-genome resequencing data were used to screen for genomic regions associated with the phenotypes of interest. Results A weak polygenic signal in female Coho Salmon was found to be associated with return group, with a subset of candidate adaptive regions occurring across eight chromosomes. Conclusions These findings provide insights into the genomic mechanisms underlying local adaptation in reintroduced salmon populations and inform broodstock selection strategies aimed at promoting natural production and long-term population sustainability.

Horn, Rebekah L.↗

Sphingobium lignivorans sp. nov., isolated from river sediment downstream of a paper mill

Here, a bacterial isolate, B1D3A T , was isolated from river sediment collected from the Hiwassee River near Calhoun, TN, by enrichment culturing with a model 5–5' lignin dimer, dehydrodivanillate, as its sole carbon source. B1D3A T was also shown to utilize several model lignin-derived monomers and dimers as sole carbon sources in a variety of minimal media. Cells were Gram-stain-negative, aerobic, motile, rod-shaped and formed yellow/cream-coloured colonies on rich agar. Optimal growth occurred at 30°C, pH 7–8, and in the absence of NaCl. The major fatty acids of B1D3A T were C 18:1 ω7c and C 17:1 ω6c. The predominant hydroxy fatty acids were C 14: 0 2-OH and C 15:0 2-OH. The polar lipid profile consisted of a mixture of phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylglycerol, diphosphatidylglycerol, phosphatidyldimethylethanolamine and sphingoglycolipid. B1D3A T contained spermidine as the only major polyamine. The major isoprenoid quinone was Q-10 with minor amounts of Q-9 and Q-11. The genomic DNA G+C content of B1D3A T was 65.6mol%. Phylogenetic analyses based on 16S rRNA gene sequences and coding sequences of 49 core, universal genes defined by Clusters of Orthologous Groups gene families indicated that B1D3A T was a member of the genus Sphingobium. B1D3A T was most closely related to Sphingobium sp. SYK-6, with a 100% 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity. B1D3A T showed 78.1–89.9%average nucleotide identity and 19.5–22.2% digital DNA–DNA hybridization identity with other type strains from the genus Sphingobium. On the basis of phenotypic and genotypic properties and phylogenetic inference, strain B1D3A T should be classified as representing a novel species of the genus Sphingobium, for which the name Sphingobium lignivorans sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is strain B1D3A T (ATCC TSD-279 T =DSM 111877 T ).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center

We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.

Forecasting↗