Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “return path”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Radar Range Sidelobe Reduction Using Adaptive Pulse Compression Technique

Pulse compression has been widely used in radars so that low-power, long RF pulses can be transmitted, rather than a highpower short pulse. Pulse compression radars offer a number of advantages over high-power short pulsed radars, such as no need of high-power RF circuitry, no need of high-voltage electronics, compact size and light weight, better range resolution, and better reliability. However, range sidelobe associated with pulse compression has prevented the use of this technique on spaceborne radars since surface returns detected by range sidelobes may mask the returns from a nearby weak cloud or precipitation particles. Research on adaptive pulse compression was carried out utilizing a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) waveform generation board and a radar transceiver simulator. The results have shown significant improvements in pulse compression sidelobe performance. Microwave and millimeter-wave radars present many technological challenges for Earth and planetary science applications. The traditional tube-based radars use high-voltage power supply/modulators and high-power RF transmitters; therefore, these radars usually have large size, heavy weight, and reliability issues for space and airborne platforms. Pulse compression technology has provided a path toward meeting many of these radar challenges. Recent advances in digital waveform generation, digital receivers, and solid-state power amplifiers have opened a new era for applying pulse compression to the development of compact and high-performance airborne and spaceborne remote sensing radars. The primary objective of this innovative effort is to develop and test a new pulse compression technique to achieve ultrarange sidelobes so that this technique can be applied to spaceborne, airborne, and ground-based remote sensing radars to meet future science requirements. By using digital waveform generation, digital receiver, and solid-state power amplifier technologies, this improved pulse compression technique could bring significant impact on future radar development. The novel feature of this innovation is the non-linear FM (NLFM) waveform design. The traditional linear FM has the limit (-20 log BT -3 dB) for achieving ultra-low-range sidelobe in pulse compression. For this study, a different combination of 20- or 40-microsecond chirp pulse width and 2- or 4-MHz chirp bandwidth was used. These are typical operational parameters for airborne or spaceborne weather radars. The NLFM waveform design was then implemented on a FPGA board to generate a real chirp signal, which was then sent to the radar transceiver simulator. The final results have shown significant improvement on sidelobe performance compared to that obtained using a traditional linear FM chirp.

Li, Lihua↗

Advanced Seal Sessions I and II

As aircraft operators continue to seek higher fuel efficiency, lower emissions, and longer on-wing performance, turbine engine designers are scrutinizing all components for areas of improvement. To achieve overall goals, turbine pressure ratios and by-pass ratios continue to climb. Also, designers are seeking to minimize parasitic and cooling flows to extract the most useful work out of the flow stream, placing a renewed interest on seal technology and secondary flow path management. In the area of future manned spacecraft, advancements are being examined for both habitat seals and re-entry thermal protection system thermal barrierseals. For long duration space craft, designers are continuing to look for savings in parasitic losses to reduce the amount of cabin re-supply air that needs to be brought along. This is placing greater demands on seal designs and materials to exhibit low leakage and be resistant to space environments. For future missions to and from distant planets, the re-entry heating will be higher than for low-earth orbit or lunar return motivating advanced thermal barrier development. This presentation will provide an overview of the seal challenges and opportunities in these diverse areas.

turbine engines↗

Polar Traverse Rover Instrument

A Polar Traverse Rover (PTR) is a device designed to determine the role of Antarctica in the global climate system by determining typical paths of continental air that passes the South Pole, and by obtaining insight into the relationship between events at the Antarctic and the meteorology of sub-polar altitudes. The PTR is a 2-m-diameter ball in which an Iridium modem, with an integrated global positioning system (GPS) receiver and a commercial lithium battery pack, is suspended. The modem is attached to an aluminum plate and is surrounded by shock-absorbing plastic for protection. This core is attached to the interior walls of the shell by strings on three axis points. The unit s total weight is 10 kg, and it returns data regarding location, altitude, ground velocity, and vertical velocity. The PTR traverses the terrain solely through being blown around by the wind. The unit is much lighter than its predecessor, the Tumbleweed, and requires less wind to put it in motion and to sustain motion. The system is autonomous, requiring minimal monitoring, and enables long-range, unmanned scientific surface surveys in harsh environments.

Karlsson, Henrik↗

Locating buildings in aerial photos

Algorithms and techniques for use in the identification and location of large buildings in digitized copies of aerial photographs are developed and tested. The building data would be used in the simulation of objects located in the vicinity of an airport that may be detected by aircraft radar. Two distinct approaches are considered. Most building footprints are rectangular in form. The first approach studied is to search for right-angled corners that characterize rectangular objects and then to connect these corners to complete the building. This problem is difficult because many nonbuilding objects, such as street corners, parking lots, and ballparks often have well defined corners which are often difficult to distinguish from rooftops. Furthermore, rooftops come in a number of shapes, sizes, shadings, and textures which also limit the discrimination task. The strategy used linear sequences of different samples to detect straight edge segments at multiple angles and to determine when these segments meet at approximately right-angles with respect to each other. This technique is effective in locating corners. The test image used has a fairly rectangular block pattern oriented about thirty degrees clockwise from a vertical alignment, and the overall measurement data reflect this. However, this technique does not discriminate between buildings and other objects at an operationally suitable rate. In addition, since multiple paths are tested for each image pixel, this is a time consuming task. The process can be speeded up by preprocessing the image to locate the more optimal sampling paths. The second approach is to rely on a human operator to identify and select the building objects and then to have the computer determine the outline and location of the selected structures. When presented with a copy of a digitized aerial photograph, the operator uses a mouse and cursor to select a target building. After a button on the mouse is pressed, with the cursor fully within the perimeter of the building, the program scans from the position of the cursor to a perimeter position where a shift in grayscale is detected. Once at the perimeter, the process traces along it, around the building, until it eventually returns to the perimeter starting point. Spatial resolution limits cause the perimeter trace to be somewhat course so that a line straightening algorithm is employed. One result is that the building corner positions become more distinctly defined.

Green, James S.↗

Space Launch System Payload Stage Capability for Ultra-High Characteristic Energy Missions

The Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is NASA’s cornerstone capability for a new era of human and robotic exploration of deep space. The unrivalled performance of SLS provides the capability to launch the first woman and next man to walk on the lunar surface and to support development of a sustained human presence in cislunar space, and ultimately human missions to Mars. As an evolvable capability with unique launch performance, the opportunities enabled by SLS also include game-changing benefits for science missions, including probes to the outer solar system and beyond. For the last two years, the SLS Program has worked with the Interstellar Probe team at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory(APL) to provide data that describe how SLS could support a mission that would break through the boundary of the heliosphere and into pristine interstellar space only a decade after launch, enabling earlier science return and greatly increasing spacecraft life in the interstellar medium. In record-breaking time, the ISP as launched on SLS may answer questions raised by the extended mission of NASA’s Voyager spacecraft. While SLS and its efficient Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) offer benefits for exploration of the outer planets, adding one or more additional stages to this architecture makes it even more capable for missions beyond our solar system, offering more realistically appealing flight times that would allow the mission scientists to reap the rewards of exploration. During the time the SLS Program has been working with the Interstellar Probe team, it has identified an expedited path to the Block 2 capability planned for the Interstellar Probe mission, and further matured performance numbers for diverse multi-stage configurations using a combination of commercially available liquid hydrogen (LH2)/liquid oxygen (LOX) upper stages and solid motor kick stages. That work has demonstrated the SLS payload stage capability provides significant benefits and opens trade space for multiple missions in consideration during planning for the next Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey. This presentation details the significant benefits SLS can provides for very high characteristic (C3) energy missions by coupling the capabilities of SLS to current commercial rocket propulsion stage systems. These capabilities are explored specifically in the context of an Interstellar Probe architecture in which a small, capable science probe, coupled with carefully tailored mission design trajectories, could be used to explore the outer solar system and the interstellar medium. The presentation will also address the operational logistics of integrating such a mission, explaining the options available for “non-standard” SLS payloads, including processing those with radioisotope power generators or additional propulsion stages. An SLS system overview and capabilities will be presented, along with vehicle configuration and orbit performance capability studies, explaining how SLS is enabling for a variety of high-energy science mission profiles, including launching an exploratory probe bound for interstellar space only a decade after launch.

Rob Stough↗

Variational Asymptotic Homogenization of Finitely Deformed Viscoelastic-Viscoplastic Composites

The objective of this paper is to develop a constitutive model for finitely deformed viscoelastic-viscoplastic materials and a micromechanics approach to homogenizing composites consisting of such materials. The development of the constitutive model involves establishing a thermodynamic framework based on finite strain theory, developing a viscoelasticity and a viscoplasticity model based on the thermodynamic framework, developing a radial return algorithm based on a classic framework, and deriving a closed-from incremental constitutive relation in the spatial configuration. The development of the micromechanics approach involves pulling-back the above constitutive relation to the material configuration, formulating a variational statement with the resulting constitutive relation, discretizing variational statement in a finite-dimensional space, and solving the discretized variational statement using an Euler–Newton predictor–corrector method. The constitutive model is calibrated via monotonic uniaxial compression tests on a polymer, and the calibrated model is validated by comparing its predictions with the cyclic test data. It is shown capable of characterizing viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, and complex loading paths. The micromechanics approach’s capabilities are demonstrated through homogenizing a unidirectional fiber-reinforced composite, subjected to uniaxial, biaxial, and shear loading, at different strain rates. It is demonstrated to be capable of handling rate dependence and complex loading paths. The present framework can be further improved by implementing more sophisticated viscoelasticity and viscoplasticity models in future work.

Finite element analysis↗

Effect of atmospheric extinction on laser rangefinder performance at 1.54 and 0.6 microns

Extinction of laser rangefinder (LRF) pulses by the atmosphere depends on the wavelength, weather conditions, and aerosol concentration along the optical path. In the IR, extinction is due to absorption by molecular constituents and scattering and absorption by aerosols. The total atmospheric extinction alpha(lambda) is the sum of the molecular and aerosol contributions, alpha(sub m)(lambda)and Alpha(sub a)(lambda). We present simple expressions for alpha(sub m)(lambda) and alpha(sub a)(lambda) for two LRF sources: Er:glass and CO2 which operate at 1.54 and 10.6 microns, respectively. The expressions are based on accepted models of atmospheric aerosols and molecular extinction and give an estimate of alpha(lambda) as a function of standard meteorological parameters, assuming horizontal beam propagation. Signal-to-noise ratios of LRF returns, measured from a reference target under different weather conditions are compared to predictions based on the estimate of alpha(lambda).

Hutt, D. L.↗

Next Gen NEAR: Near Earth Asteroid Human Robotic Precursor Mission Concept

Asteroids have long held the attention of the planetary science community. In particular, asteroids that evolve into orbits near that of Earth, called near-Earth objects (NEO), are of high interest as potential targets for exploration due to the relative ease (in terms of delta V) to reach them. NASA's Flexible Path calls for missions and experiments to be conducted as intermediate steps towards the eventual goal of human exploration of Mars; piloted missions to NEOs are such example. A human NEO mission is a valuable exploratory step beyond the Earth-Moon system enhancing capabilities that surpass our current experience, while also developing infrastructure for future mars exploration capabilities. To prepare for a human rendezvous with an NEO, NASA is interested in pursuing a responsible program of robotic NEO precursor missions. Next Gen NEAR is such a mission, building on the NEAR Shoemaker mission experience at the JHU/APL Space Department, to provide an affordable, low risk solution with quick data return. Next Gen NEAR proposes to make measurements needed for human exploration to asteroids: to demonstrate proximity operations, to quantify hazards for human exploration and to characterize an environment at a near-Earth asteroid representative of those that may be future human destinations. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory has demonstrated exploration-driven mission feasibility by developing a versatile spacecraft design concept using conventional technologies that satisfies a set of science, exploration and mission objectives defined by a concept development team in the summer of 2010. We will describe the mission concept and spacecraft architecture in detail. Configuration options were compared with the mission goals and objectives in order to select the spacecraft design concept that provides the lowest cost, lowest implementation risk, simplest operation and the most benefit for the mission implementation. The Next Gen NEAR spacecraft was designed to support rendezvous with a range of candidate asteroid targets and could easily be launched with one of several NASA launch vehicles. The Falcon 9 launch vehicle supports a Next Gen NEAR launch to target many near-Earth asteroids under consideration that could be reached with a C3 of 18 km2/sec2 or less, and the Atlas V-401 provides added capability supporting launch to NEAs that require more lift capacity while at the same time providing such excess lift capability that another payload of opportunity could be launch in conjunction with Next Gen NEAR. Next Gen NEAR will measure and interact with the target surface in ways never undertaken at an asteroid, and will prepare for first human precursor mission by demonstrating exploration science operations at an accessible NEO. This flexible mission and spacecraft design concept supports target selection based on upcoming Earth-based observations and also provides opportunities for co-manifest & international partnerships. JHU/APL has demonstrated low cost, low risk, high impact missions and this mission will help to prepare NASA for human NEO exploration by combining the best of NASA s human and robotic exploration capabilities.

Rivkin, Andrew S.↗

Science Activity Planner for the MER Mission

The Maestro Science Activity Planner is a computer program that assists human users in planning operations of the Mars Explorer Rover (MER) mission and visualizing scientific data returned from the MER rovers. Relative to its predecessors, this program is more powerful and easier to use. This program is built on the Java Eclipse open-source platform around a Web-browser-based user-interface paradigm to provide an intuitive user interface to Mars rovers and landers. This program affords a combination of advanced display and simulation capabilities. For example, a map view of terrain can be generated from images acquired by the High Resolution Imaging Science Explorer instrument aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft and overlaid with images from a navigation camera (more precisely, a stereoscopic pair of cameras) aboard a rover, and an interactive, annotated rover traverse path can be incorporated into the overlay. It is also possible to construct an overhead perspective mosaic image of terrain from navigation-camera images. This program can be adapted to similar use on other outer-space missions and is potentially adaptable to numerous terrestrial applications involving analysis of data, operations of robots, and planning of such operations for acquisition of scientific data.

Norris, Jeffrey S.↗

Postural Stability When Leaning from Perceived Upright

The transition between quiet stance and gait requires the volitional movement of one?s center of mass (COM) toward a limit of stability (LOS). The goal of this study was to measure the effect of leaning from perceived upright on postural stability when voluntarily maintaining fixed stance positions and during perturbations of the support surface. The COM was derived from force plate data in 12 healthy subjects while standing with feet positioned so that lateral base of support was equal to foot length. For all conditions, arms were folded and subjects were instructed to lean without bending at the hips or lifting their feet. The LOS was determined during maximal voluntary leans with eyes open and closed. The COM was then displayed on a monitor located in front of the subject. Subjects were visually guided to lean toward a target position, maintain this position for 10s, return to upright, and then repeat the same targeted lean maneuver with eyes closed. Targets were randomly presented at 2? in 8 directions and between 2-6? in these same directions according to the asymmetric LOS. Subjects were then verbally guided to lean between 2? back and 4? forward prior to a perturbation of the support surface in either a forward or backward direction. The average LOS was 5.8? forward, 2.9? back, and 4.8? in left/right directions, with no significant difference between eyes open and closed. Center of pressure (COP) velocity increased as subjects maintained fixed stance positions farther from upright, with increased variability during eyes closed conditions. The time to stability and COP path length increased as subjects leaned opposite to the direction of the support surface perturbations. We conclude that postural stability is compromised as subjects lean away from perceived upright, except for perturbations that induce sway in the direction opposite the lean. The asymmetric LOS relative to perceived upright favors postural stability for COM movements in the forward direction.

Vanya, Robert D.↗

Signatures of Chemical Evolution in Protostellar Nebulae

A decade ago observers began to take serious notice of the presence of crystalline silicate grains in the dust flowing away from some comets. While crystallinity had been seen in such objects previously, starting with the recognitions by Campins and Ryan (1990) that the 10 micron feature of Comet Halley resembled that of the mineral forsterite, most such observations were either ignored or dismissed as no path to explain such crystalline grains was available in the literature. When it was first suggested that an outward flow must be present to carry annealed silicate grains from the innermost regions of the Solar Nebula out to the regions where comets could form (Nuth, 1999; 2001) this suggestion was also dismissed because no such transport mechanism was known at the time. Since then not only have new models of nebular dynamics demonstrated the reality of long distance outward transport (Ciesla, 2007; 2008; 2009) but examination of older models (Boss, 2004) showed that such transport had been present but had gone unrecognized for many years. The most unassailable evidence for outward nebular transport came with the return of the Stardust samples from Comet Wild2, a Kuiper-belt comet that contained micron-scale grains of high temperature minerals resembling the Calcium-Aluminum Inclusions found in primitive meteorites (Zolensky et aI., 2006) that formed at T > 1400K. Now that outward transport in protostellar nebulae has been firmly established, a re-examination of its consequences for nebular gas is in order that takes into account both the factors that regulate both the outward flow as well as those that likely control the chemical composition of the gas. Laboratory studies of surface catalyzed reactions suggest that a trend toward more highly reduced carbon and nitrogen compounds in the gas phase should be correlated with a general increase in the crystallinity of the dust (Nuth et aI., 2000), but is such a trend actually observable? Unlike the Fischer-Tropsch or the Haber-Bosch reactions used in industry, the surface catalyzed reactions seen in our laboratory do not produce a simple product stream of methane or ammonia, respectively. Instead, such reactions produce a wide range of both aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, as well as reduced nitrogen compounds such as ammonia, amines, amides and imides, as gas phase products together with a heavy, macromolecular, kerogen-like surface coating that remains on the grains. While CO and N2 will certainly be depleted by conversion into more complex and less volatile species via reaction on grain surfaces, it may be very difficult to monitor such changes from outside the system.

Nuth, Joseph A., III↗

Software Reuse in the Planetary Context: The JPL/MIPL Mars Program Suite

Reuse greatly reduces development costs. Savings can be invested in new/improved capabilities Or returned to sponsor Worth the extra time to "do it right" Operator training greatly reduced. MIPL MER personnel can step into MSL easily because the programs are familiar. Application programs much easier to write. Can assume core capabilities exist already. Multimission Instrument (Image) Processing Lab at MIPL Responsible for the ground-based instrument data processing for (among other things) all recent in-situ Mars missions: Mars Pathfinder Mars Polar Lander (MPL) Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) Phoenix Mars Science Lab (MSL) Responsibilities for in-situ missions Reconstruction of instrument data from telemetry Systematic creation of Reduced Data Records (RDRs) for images Creation of special products for operations, science, and public outreach In the critical path for operations MIPL products required for planning the next Sol s activities

Software Design↗

Reactive, Safe Navigation for Lunar and Planetary Robots

When humans return to the moon, Astronauts will be accompanied by robotic helpers. Enabling robots to safely operate near astronauts on the lunar surface has the potential to significantly improve the efficiency of crew surface operations. Safely operating robots in close proximity to astronauts on the lunar surface requires reactive obstacle avoidance capabilities not available on existing planetary robots. In this paper we present work on safe, reactive navigation using a stereo based high-speed terrain analysis and obstacle avoidance system. Advances in the design of the algorithms allow it to run terrain analysis and obstacle avoidance algorithms at full frame rate (30Hz) on off the shelf hardware. The results of this analysis are fed into a fast, reactive path selection module, enforcing the safety of the chosen actions. The key components of the system are discussed and test results are presented.

Utz, Hans↗

Autonomous Laser-Powered Vehicle

An autonomous laser-powered vehicle designed to autonomously penetrate through ice caps of substantial (e.g., kilometers) thickness by melting a path ahead of the vehicle as it descends. A high powered laser beam is transmitted to the vehicle via an onboard bare fiber spooler. After the beam enters through the dispersion optics, the beam expands into a cavity. A radiation shield limits backscatter radiation from heating the optics. The expanded beam enters the heat exchanger and is reflected by a dispersion mirror. Forward-facing beveled circular grooves absorb the reflected radiant energy preventing the energy from being reflected back towards the optics. Microchannels along the inner circumference of the beam dump heat exchanger maximize heat transfer. Sufficient amount of fiber is wound on the fiber spooler to permit not only a descent but also to permit a sample return mission by inverting the vehicle and melting its way back to the surface.

Stone, William C.↗

A Method of Monitoring Non-Resonant Raman Lidar Returns During Daylight Hours

A method for using non-resonant Raman lidar during daytime hours is presented. A dual (or quadruple) arrangement of electro-optical channels is set up in the lidar receiver. Each channel contains its own optical spectral response as determined by an appropriate set of interference filters. The incoming signal is split and fed into two channels, filtered (simultaneously) and then inserted into the input terminals of an operational amplifier. The difference signal is selected and amplified whereas the common portion of the signal is highly attenuated (Common Mode Re.jection Ratio = 75-80db). For the present hardware, daylight intensities 10(exp 2)-10(exp 3) times Raman signals are received simultaneously. Mean values of intensities of daylight signals which give rise to a constant differences merely shift the value of the measured variable at the ground. These mean value signals have their common part highly attenuated. The differences of the fluctuation portions of the daylight signal represents a noise signal. Identical (space-time) optical paths for each component of the daylight signal produce the same fluctuational spectra in each channel. Hence noise levels, much less than signal levels, are anticipated. First a N2-H2 ) signal pair is differenced. Then an N2-O2 pair is differenced and used for instrumental normalization purposes. Signal levels to be encountered are quite well known as a result of prior field work. Improved optical design of laser system can reduce mean value of daylight intensities by 10(exp 2). Thus the mean daylight intensity can be set equal to the expected signal levels by more advanced optical design. Performance characteristics of photomultiplier pairs are discussed in this connection.

Cooney, John↗

ML-based Micro-CT SOFC Microstructure Models (from Kent 2026 Microstructural Augmentation paper)

Overview -------------------------- This repository contains datasets from the manuscript **"Enhanced Generalizability to Deep-Learning Quantification of 3D Microstructural Characteristics through Microstructurally Aware Augmentation of Scarce Data"** (*William F. Kent, Rochan Bajpai, Rachel C. Kurchin, William K. Epting, Harry W. Abernathy, Paul A. Salvador. Submitted 2026*). The methods are also described in the dissertation **Data Intensive Analysis of Solid Oxide Cell Microstructures** (*Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, 2025*). The datasets here are trained convolutional neural network (CNN) models for predicting key microstructural properties of solid oxide cell (SOC) electrodes from low-res, 2-channel 3D images, as well as some helpful code. The parameters for input images are provided in the paper. Sample data is provided in the file `Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples` - that particular data was used to train `anode_all_aug.pth` and will work most accurately with that model. Please familiarize yourself with all caveats on accuracy and applicability, as detailed in the associated paper. Usage -------------------------- The basic usage is as follows, assuming `model_fn` is the path to the .pth file, and `X` is 2-channel input image(s) of the proper dimensions (either one image of shape `[2,12,24,24]`, or a batch of N input images of shape `[N,2,12,24,24]`): from CNN_inferencer import load_model_for_inference model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) y_predicted = model(X) The model object automatically handles input scaling and output de-scaling based on the way the models were trained - in other words, pass in a 2-channel micro-CT image, and it will output microstructural property values in real units. ## Other model object attributes Note that model has useful attributes other than its forward pass model(X). * `model.output_descaler` - returns the output descaler object. Model does the de-scaling when generating inferences, but you may want to re-use this de-scaler on other values to e.g. compare predictions to ground truth from already-scaled training data. * `model.prop_names` - Gives the property names of the predicted y values, in order. Only exists if there's an output scaler as part of the model object, which there will be in the models provided here. ## Usage with sample data Here is a short script to use with the included sample data. from CNN_inferencer import display_predictions, load_model_for_inference, calculate_mape, parity_plot import h5py import numpy as np model_fn = 'anode_all_aug.pth' data_fn = 'Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples.h5' N_samples = 200 figure_outdir = '.' model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) with h5py.File(data_fn,'r') as f: XX = f['X'] #These are the 2-channel 3D images yy = f['y'] #These are the ground-truth microstructural properties, but they have been scaled for training - need to de-scale below N = XX.shape[0] #How many images total in the input data file #Run inferences on N_samples random samples from XX. #Run in a batch, much more efficient than one at a time. ii = np.random.choice(N,N_samples,replace=False) ii.sort() y_pred = model(XX[ii]) #Get the original/true (but normalized/scaled) values from the training dataset... #Because they were normalized, they are not in real units yet. So let's also de-scale them using model.output_scaler. y_true = model.output_scaler.transform(yy[ii]) #Let's display actual values for just 5 random ones for i in np.random.choice(N_samples,5,replace=False): display_predictions(y_true[i], y_pred[i], model.prop_names) #Make parity plots for each property (ground truth vs predicted values) #Also label each plot with the mean abs. percent error (MAPE) of the predicted values for i,key in enumerate(model.prop_names): mape = calculate_mape(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i]) parity_plot(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i], figure_outdir, key, extra_title=f' ({mape:.2f}% MAPE)')

3D microstructure↗

Processing of Space Resources to Enable the Vision for Space Exploration

The NASA human exploration program as directed by the Vision for Exploration (G.W. Bush, Jan. 14,2004) includes developing methods to process materials on the Moon and beyond to enable safe and affordable human exploration. Processing space resources was first popularized (O Neill 1976) as a technically viable, economically feasible means to build city sized habitats and multi GWatt solar power satellites in Earth/Moon space. Although NASA studies found the concepts to be technically reasonable in the post Apollo era (AMES 1979), the front end costs the limits of national or corporate investment. In the last decade analysis of space on has shown it to be economically justifiable even on a relatively small mission or commercial scenario basis. The Mars Reference Mission analysis (JSC 1997) demonstrated that production of return propellant on Mars can enable an order of magnitude decrease in the costs of human Mars missions. Analysis (by M. Duke 2003) shows that production of propellant on the Moon for the Earth based satellite industries can be commercially viable after a human lunar base is established. Similar economic analysis (Rapp 2005) also shows large cost benefits for lunar propellant production for Mars missions and for the use of lunar materials for the production of photovoltaic power (Freundlich 2005). Recent technologies could enable much smaller initial costs, to achieve mass, energy, and life support self sufficiency, than were achievable in the 1970s. If the Exploration Vision program is executed with a front end emphasis on space resources, it could provide a path for human self reliance beyond Earth orbit. This path can lead to an open, non-zero-sum, future for humanity with safer human competition with limitless growth potential. This paper discusses extension of the analysis for space resource utilization, to determine the minimum systems necessary for human self sufficiency and growth off Earth. Such a approach can provide a more compelling and comprehensive path to space resource utilization.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗