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At least 379 records · Page 21

Drought Impacts on Hydroelectric Power Generation in the Western United States

The Western United States experiences large fluctuations in rain and snowfall from year to year, affecting river flows and reservoir levels throughout the region. This interannual variability in water resources leaves a strong signature on total annual energy generated by the region’s fleet of hydroelectric dams. In a wet year, like 2011, hydroelectric power can meet 30 percent of annual western electricity demand. That contribution can drop below 20 percent during severe drought years. Characterizing the contribution of hydroelectric power to the western generation portfolio during drought is crucial to understanding the resilience of the hydropower sector to climate-related risk, both now and in the future. This report analyzes the impacts of historical western droughts on hydroelectric power production by combining two decades’ worth of annual generation—recorded at more than 600 hydroelectric power plants—with historical climate data developed for distinct hydropower subregions of the West. The most extreme impacts of drought on hydroelectric power are found at individual dams where reservoir levels are so low that released water and thus generation becomes severely restricted. These isolated cases often receive widespread media attention, leading to a common misconception that hydroelectric power is an unreliable technology whose role will diminish over time as the western climate produces longer and more severe droughts. Yet, when aggregated to the scale of the West, the observational records of hydropower generation reveal a different story. Even during the most severe droughts experienced since the turn of the century, the western hydropower fleet sustained more than 80% of its typical annual generation. Observational data indicate that drought in 2021 led to the worst year for hydropower generation in the West since 2001, with total generation approximately 16 percent below the 21st century two-decade average. The year 2021 was particularly severe in California (second worst hydro year of last two decades, ~48 percent below average) and Oregon (worst hydro year of last two decades), while generation in Washington and Idaho was affected to a lesser degree (~12 percent below average for combined region). The year 2001 remains the year of lowest western hydropower generation of the twenty-first century so far, owing to extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest, where about two-thirds of western hydropower capacity is located. The primary reason for this relative stability is the diversity of weather across the West; drought rarely impairs hydroelectric power across all river basins at the same time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Subsurface Characterization for Evaluating Geothermal Resource Potential from Existing Oil and Gas Wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Oil and gas (O&G) wells often encounter co-produced hot water, possibly suitable for geothermal direct-use applications. The City of Tuttle is located on the eastern part of the Anadarko sedimentary basin in Oklahoma with high heat-in-place potential and recovery capability at depth. This study aims at demonstrating the potential of geothermal energy production for direct-use applications in two public schools and 250 nearby houses in Tuttle via repurposing existing O&G wells. In this scope, geochemistry, geology, and borehole log data were collected and incorporated into a 3D conceptual subsurface model. A digital elevation model (DEM) was used to represent the study area topography with four O&G wells. In addition, hydrogeochemical characteristics of the geothermal fluid and scaling potential were analyzed using ternary diagrams and chemical ratios to develop mixing models. The subsurface geology model indicated that the study area primarily consists of Permian to Mississippian Sandstone and Limestone formations, implying a porosity ranging between 12% and 22%, and a permeability up to 3.90E-14 m2 in certain reservoir levels. The reservoir temperature is expected to be ranging between 80 degrees C to 95 degrees C around 3 km depth with an average temperature gradient of 22.8 degrees C/km. Chemical geothermometers also estimated the reservoir temperature as 90 degrees C. Findings of the chemical model demonstrated that the geothermal fluid is Sodium-Potassium-Chloride-Sulfate type and possibly mixed with shallow groundwater resulting in higher Ca and Mg concentrations and lower Na/K ratio implying lower calcite scaling. These results comprehensively characterize the potential of geothermal resources in the study area and imply that geothermal energy production by repurposing existing O&G wells is suitable for low-temperature direct-use applications.

gas wells↗

Subsurface Characterization for Evaluating Geothermal Resource Potential from Existing Oil and Gas Wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma: Preprint

Oil and gas (O&G) wells often encounter co-produced hot water, possibly suitable for geothermal direct-use applications. The City of Tuttle is located on the eastern part of the Anadarko sedimentary basin in Oklahoma with high heat-in-place potential and recovery capability at depth. This study aims at demonstrating the potential of geothermal energy production for direct-use applications in two public schools and 250 nearby houses in Tuttle via repurposing existing O&G wells. In this scope, geochemistry, geology, and borehole log data were collected and incorporated into a 3D conceptual subsurface model. A digital elevation model (DEM) was used to represent the study area topography with four O&G wells. In addition, hydrogeochemical characteristics of the geothermal fluid and scaling potential were analyzed using ternary diagrams and chemical ratios to develop mixing models. The subsurface geology model indicated that the study area primarily consists of Permian to Mississippian Sandstone and Limestone formations, implying a porosity ranging between 12% and 22%, and a permeability up to 3.90E-14 m2 in certain reservoir levels. The reservoir temperature is expected to be ranging between 80 degrees C to 95 degrees C around 3 km depth with an average temperature gradient of 22.8 degrees C/km. Chemical geothermometers also estimated the reservoir temperature as 90 degrees C. Findings of the chemical model demonstrated that the geothermal fluid is Sodium-Potassium-Chloride-Sulfate type and possibly mixed with shallow groundwater resulting in higher Ca and Mg concentrations and lower Na/K ratio implying lower calcite scaling. These results comprehensively characterize the potential of geothermal resources in the study area and imply that geothermal energy production by repurposing existing O&G wells is suitable for low-temperature direct-use applications.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Native Architecture of Wheat Straw Cell Walls: A Unified Model from X-ray Scattering and Solid-State NMR

Plant secondary cell walls constitute the dominant reservoir of renewable biomass, comprising tightly packed cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin at the nanoscale. Recent advances in solid-state NMR spectroscopy and the availability of small-angle X-ray scattering for biomass characterization have led to an accumulation of experimental data on cell wall organization, yet no explicit structure model has simultaneously satisfied both Xray and NMR observations. Using wheat straw as a model system, we propose a structural framework consistent with current knowledge of cellulose biosynthesis, X-ray scattering data, and one- and two-dimensional 13 C solid-state NMR spectra. In this model, 18-chain elementary fibrils align in parallel and populate the cross-section at random. Arabinose-substituted xylan shows no conformational dependence for cellulose-binding in wheat, and only a minor fraction of 2-fold xylan appears in close proximity to cellulose, unlike in Arabidopsis, where xylan is more tightly attached to the cellulose surface. While NMR data cannot unambiguously resolve the internal arrangement of the 18 glucan chains, X-ray scattering profiles uniquely constrain the fibril size and exclude the possibility of tight bundling in the intact walls. The specific interaction between the matrix polymers and the cellulose elementary fibrils must be reconsidered in light of the small interfibril spaces, which bring the matrix components into spatial proximity with cellulose even in the absence of attractive interactions. These findings provide fundamental molecular-level insight into cellulose fibril architecture and matrix−polymer interactions, resolving longstanding discrepancies between spectroscopic and scattering data and advancing our understanding of biopolymer assembly into structurally and functionally versatile lignocellulosic biomaterials.

Carbohydrates↗

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Distribution and Type of High-Latitude Natural Wetlands for Methane Studies

High latitude (>50N) natural wetlands emit a substantial amount of methane to the atmosphere, and are located in a region of amplified warming. Northern hemisphere high latitudes are characterized by cold climates, extensive permafrost, poor drainage, short growing seasons, and slow decay rates. Under these conditions, organic carbon accumulates in the soil, sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Methanogens produce methane from this carbon reservoir, converting stored carbon into a powerful greenhouse gas. Methane emission from wetland ecosystems depends on vegetation type, climate characteristics (e.g, precipitation amount and seasonality, temperature, snow cover, etc.), and geophysical variables (e.g., permafrost, soil type, and landscape slope). To understand how wetland methane dynamics in this critical region will respond to climate change, we have to first understand how wetlands themselves will change and therefore, what the primary controllers of wetland distribution and type are. Understanding these relationships permits data-anchored, physically-based modeling of wetland distribution and type in other climate scenarios, such as paleoclimates or future climates, a necessary first step toward modeling wetland methane emissions in these scenarios. We investigate techniques and datasets for predicting the distribution and type of high latitude (>50N) natural wetlands from a suite of geophysical and climate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is used to derive an empirical methane-centric wetland model. The model is applied in a multistep process first to predict the distribution of wetlands from relevant geophysical parameters, and then, given the predicted wetland distribution, to classify the wetlands into methane-relevant types using an expanded suite of climate and biogeophysical variables. As the optimum set of predictor variables is not known a priori, the model is applied iteratively, and each simulation is evaluated with respect to observed high-latitude wetlands.

Romanski, Joy↗

Microwave-enhanced methane cracking for clean hydrogen production in shale rocks

Here, steam methane reforming (SMR) generates about 95% of hydrogen (H 2 ) in the U.S. using natural gas as a main feedstock. However, this technology also generates a large amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), a major greenhouse gas causing global warming. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technique is required, but the cost and safety of storing CO 2 underground are a concern. Here we propose a new approach using microwave/electromagnetic irradiation to produce clean hydrogen from unrecovered hydrocarbons within petroleum reservoirs. Solid carbon or CO 2 produced during this process will be simultaneously sequestrated underground without involving CCS. In this paper, we perform a series of experiments to investigate the in-situ hydrogen production from shale gas (methane) conversion by passing a methane stream through a packed shale rock sample heated by microwave. We found that methane conversion was significantly enhanced in the presence of Fe and Fe 3 O 4 particles as catalysts, with a conversion of 40.5% and 100% at reaction temperature of 500 °C and 600 °C, respectively. Methane conversion is promoted at a lower reaction temperature by the catalytic effect of minerals in shale. Additionally, the influences of catalysts, shale rock, and methane flow rate are characterized.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system

Hydro-wind-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system has the potential to increase the integration of renewable energy sources into an existing grid. For the long-term operation of the system, due to the non-storable nature of wind and PV power, it is essentially to decide the optimal long-term carryover storage of cascade reservoirs. However, it remains a challenge due to high uncertainties of long-term forecasts and complicated hydraulic/electrical relationships between cascade reservoirs. Here in this study, a forecast-driven decision-making model is proposed for the hybrid system, which converts the multi-stage long-term operation process into a two-stage operation problem (including current stage and carryover stage) to avoid using longer-horizon forecast information with lower accuracy. First, the carryover stage energy surfaces (CESs) considering the forecast uncertainties of wind, solar and hydro resources are proposed to characterize carryover stage benefit quantitatively. Then a CESs-based forward decision-making optimization model is developed to guide the long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system. The applications in a hydro-wind-PV hybrid system of Yalong River basin results show that: compared with conventional operation, 1) power generation increases 9.03%; 2) in terms of the carryover storages control, the reservoir impounding and drawdown timing are delayed, and the drawdown depth is increased, which can be used to formulate better reservoir operation rules.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Novel candidate taxa contribute to key metabolic processes in Fennoscandian Shield deep groundwaters

The continental deep biosphere contains a vast reservoir of microorganisms, although a large proportion of its diversity remains both uncultured and undescribed. In this study, the metabolic potential (metagenomes) and activity (metatranscriptomes) of the microbial communities in Fennoscandian Shield deep subsurface groundwaters were characterized with a focus on novel taxa. DNA sequencing generated 1270 de-replicated metagenome-assembled genomes and single-amplified genomes, containing 7 novel classes, 34 orders, and 72 families. The majority of novel taxa were affiliated with Patescibacteria, whereas among novel archaea taxa, Thermoproteota and Nanoarchaeota representatives dominated. Metatranscriptomes revealed that 30 of the 112 novel taxa at the class, order, and family levels were active in at least one investigated groundwater sample, implying that novel taxa represent a partially active but hitherto uncharacterized deep biosphere component. The novel taxa genomes coded for carbon fixation predominantly via the Wood–Ljungdahl pathway, nitrogen fixation, sulfur plus hydrogen oxidation, and fermentative pathways, including acetogenesis. These metabolic processes contributed significantly to the total community’s capacity, with up to 9.9% of fermentation, 6.4% of the Wood–Ljungdahl pathway, 6.8% of sulfur plus 8.6% of hydrogen oxidation, and energy conservation via nitrate (4.4%) and sulfate (6.0%) reduction. Key novel taxa included the UBA9089 phylum, with representatives having a prominent role in carbon fixation, nitrate and sulfate reduction, and organic and inorganic electron donor oxidation. These data provided insights into deep biosphere microbial diversity and their contribution to nutrient and energy cycling in this ecosystem.

Candidatus↗

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

land hydrology↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

An Assessment of Non-Powered Dam Hydropower Development Opportunities in the United States

Retrofitting non-powered dams (NPDs) to add hydropower offers multiple benefits over traditional, new hydropower development. Since much of the civil works infrastructure already exists, many retrofits require minimal new construction and can leverage existing water conveyances and discharge for generation. Although NPDs vary considerably in terms of their defining characteristics, identifying similarities helps support targeted investment and find opportunities to develop solutions for common challenges. With the publication of NPD-related data in 2022 (Hansen et al. 2022b), the US Department of Energy and relevant stakeholders are equipped with key information across roughly 89,000 US NPDs. These data represent the best-available information to date and extend beyond previous assessments of potential power capacity by describing design, operational, socioeconomic, environmental aspects of NPDs (Hadjerioua et al. 2012). To capitalize on these efforts to improve breadth and depth of NPD data access, this study uses a data-driven approach to assess NPD hydropower development opportunities in the United States. To help describe project feasibility drivers for NPDs, recent NPD retrofits were reviewed to examine variability with respect to a variety of characteristics. Based on the assessment of recent retrofits and data availability, several attributes were selected to characterize the remaining NPD population: (1) owner type, (2) 30% exceedance flow (a common design flow that describes the flow that is exceeded by 30% of the flow in the record), (3) hydraulic head, and (4) maximum reservoir storage. These four characteristics were used as inputs to a statistical clustering analysis (a common technique for grouping individuals of a population based on similarities or how closely associated individuals are to one another) of a set of 2,709 NPDs with at least 100 kW potential capacity and recently retrofit dams with available data. With the large dataset of NPDs, the clusters help describe how the population breaks down into different types (i.e., how many types of dams there are and what portion of the population belongs to each cluster).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Counting Condensation Nuclei in the Antarctic Ozone Mission

The work done on this grant primarily concerns the measurement of aerosol in the stratosphere from NASA ER-2 aircraft in studies of stratospheric ozone depletion in the northern and southern hemispheres. The ER-2 Condensation Nucleus Counter (CNC) measures the number concentration of particles in the diameter range of approximately 0.01 to 1 micron. The Passive Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer measures size distributions in the 0.17 to 3 micron diameter range. This instrument was upgraded during this grant period to a Focused Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer (FCAS). This upgrade permitted the instrument to measure particles as small as 0.05 micron in diameter. The inlet for the PCAS and FCAS was modified and characterized under this grant so that the modifications to the aerosol due to anisokinetic sampling and heating upon sampling and in transport to the measurement location were accounted for in the data analysis. These measurements permitted observations of particle production in the southern hemisphere winter polar vortex and observation of the impact of denitrification on the number concentration of the aerosol in the denitrified air. In the northern polar vortex, the measurements provided a characterization of the sulfate aerosol. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the measurements permitted an accurate characterization of the sulfate aerosol enhancements resulting from the eruption. This led to studies of the impact of heterogeneous chemistry on the partitioning of the partitioning of the reactive nitrogen species and the partitioning of the chlorine reservoir.

Wilson, James Charles↗

Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to Decision Support Tools of PECAD

This section of the evaluation report summarizes the verification and validation (V&V) of recently implemented, NASA-supported enhancements to the decision support tools of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD). The implemented enhancements include operationally tailored Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and products of the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM). The MODIS products are currently made available through two separate decision support tools: the MODIS Image Gallery and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Database. Both the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor and MODIS Image Gallery provide near-real-time products through PECAD's CropExplorer. This discussion addresses two areas: 1. Assessments of the standard NASA products on which these enhancements are based. 2. Characterizations of the performance of the new operational products.

Ross, Kenton W.↗

Water-Oil Displacement in Shale: New Insights from a Comparative Study Integrating Imbibition Tests and Multiscale Imaging

Water-oil displacement is an important process that occurs in a shale matrix after hydraulic fracturing and in water-based enhanced oil recovery. Current understanding of this displacement process is limited because of the complicated pore structure and surface properties in shale. In this work, this process and its controlling factors are investigated through a comparative study of three shale samples that have different types of pore systems and wettability. Here, an integrated method of imbibition and multiscale imaging was applied, and a modified oleic tracer that can better represent oil flow was used in imbibition testing and micro-computed tomography (CT) imaging. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) pore characterization was then performed under high magnification with guidance from the micro-CT images showing the changes caused by oil or water imbibition. New insights were obtained on the importance of both wettability and pore size effect on oil recovery and the distribution of residual oil after water-oil displacement. Connectivity of pores with different wettability is also discussed based on 3D analysis and SEM pore characterization. Collectively, these new findings improve the understanding of the complicated process of water-oil displacement and the role of influencing factors. Important implications for improved oil recovery strategy in shale are discussed for different types of reservoir rocks. The integrated imaging and imbibition technique provides a new path for further investigation of improved oil recovery in shale.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Direct Imaging of Extra-Solar Planets in Star Forming Regions: Lessons Learned from a False Positive Around IM Lup

Context. Most exoplanet imagers consist of ground-based adaptive optics coronagraphic cameras which are currently limited in contrast, sensitivity and astrometric precision, but advantageously observe in the near-infrared window (1 5 m). Because of these practical limitations, our current observational aim at detecting and characterizing planets puts heavy constraints on target selection, observing strategies, data reduction, and follow-up. Most surveys so far have thus targeted young systems (1 100 Myr) to catch the putative remnant thermal radiation of giant planets, which peaks in the near-infrared. They also favor systems in the solar neighborhood (d less than 80 pc), which eases angular resolution requirements but also ensures a good knowledge of the distance and proper motion, which are critical to secure the planet status, and enable subsequent characterization. Aims. Because of their youth, it is very tempting to target the nearby star forming regions, which are typically twice as far as the bulk of objects usually combed for planets by direct imaging. Probing these interesting reservoirs sets additional constraints that we review in this paper by presenting the planet search that we initiated in 2008 around the disk-bearing T Tauri star IM Lup, which is part of the Lupus star forming region (140-190 pc). Methods. We show and discuss why age determination, the choice of evolutionary model for both the central star and the planet, precise knowledge of the host star proper motion, relative or absolute (between different instruments) astrometric accuracy (including plate scale calibration), and patience are the key ingredients for exoplanet searches around more distant young stars. Results. Unfortunately, most of the time, precision and perseverance are not paying off: we discovered a candidate companion around IM Lup in 2008, which we report here to be an unbound background object. We nevertheless review in details the lessons learned from our endeavor, and additionally present the best detection limits ever calculated for IM Lup. We also accessorily report on the successful use of innovative data reduction techniques, such as the damped-LOCI and iterative roll subtraction.

D Mawet↗