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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Tropical Oceanic Influences on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The global tropical cyclone (TC) number has historically been relatively constant from year‐to‐year, however, the reason remains unknown. Furthermore, climate projections are inconclusive regarding future global TC frequency changes. Here, we investigated years in which observed global TC activity deviated from the mean and potential links to ocean drivers from 1980 to 2021. We found that the annual global number of named storm days and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) were significantly linked with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). La Niña and positive AMM are associated with the bottom percentiles of both TC metrics, and vice versa for El Niño and negative AMM. The ENSO Longitude Index explains variability in annual global named storm days and ACE as well as the Niño 3.4 index. This research reveals that reliable future projections of ENSO are necessary, but not sufficient, to understand future changes in global TC frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adhesion Testing of Direct-Write Printed Ink on Metallic Structural Components

The successful adoption of additive manufacturing for the rapid prototyping of direct-write printed electronics requires the establishment of quantifiable metrics that can interrogate device performance. One measure of performance is the adhesion strength between the substrate and printed film interface, which is critical since the strength of this interface can dictate the accuracy and reliability of the printed device. In this work, a non-contact laser-induced spallation technique was used to quantify the adhesion of silver printed films on aluminum alloy substrates. The laser-based method was compared to a standardized pull-off adhesion test, which provided baseline measurements of adhesion strength. The sintering conditions were shown to play an important role in the film-substrate adhesion strength, as well as the cohesion and ductility of the film itself. The methods and results described in this work support the establishment of process control steps that are necessary for quickly verifying the reliability of printed devices prior to their deployment in critical experiments.

Adhesion test↗
DOE OSTI2020

Implementation Plan for Combined Heat and Power Systems VOLTTRON Controller: Performance Monitoring and Real-Time Commissioning Algorithm Verification

Building-integrated cooling, heating, and power (CHP) systems are more efficient than conventional systems at providing local power and thermal energy, and favorable fuel prices are bound to spur their increased adoption. However, to realize the full benefit of the CHP systems, we must ensure persistence of energy efficient operations. Much of the inefficiency in the current building operations can be eliminated by use of automated performance monitoring (PM), real-time commissioning verification (CxV) and automated fault detection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools. Automation can help system operators make intelligent decisions. Remote and continuous monitoring of system conditions and performance will enable better management and integration of CHP with existing building systems. Continuous PM, real-time CxV, and AFDD could alleviate burdens for operations staff, enhance operations and maintenance (O&M), and improve reliability of building and CHP systems. To address the O&M challenges and to provide a means to maximize the rate-of-return of building-integrated CHP systems, the Building Technologies Office (BTO) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) initiated a project to design, develop, and field test a VOLTTRON™-based supervisory controller and associated open-source algorithms. These algorithms will ensure real-time optimal operation of a building-integrated CHP system, support electric grid reliability, and lead to achieving the goal of clean, efficient, reliable, and affordable next-generation integrated energy system. Previous report listed the components for which PM, real-time CxV, and AFDD algorithms will be developed, how the algorithms will be tested, and the metrics that will be used to validate the algorithms and their ease of deployment. Deployment of these algorithms in the field will result in a reduction in energy consumption of between 10% and 20% (for both CHP and conventional building systems). This report builds upon the previous report by detailing the process by which PNNL will implement performance monitoring and real-time commissioning algorithms for CHP systems in conjunction with the use of the VOLTTRON CHP economic dispatch agent in host facilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1990

Rule groupings in expert systems

Currently, expert system shells do not address software engineering issues for developing or maintaining expert systems. As a result, large expert systems tend to be incomprehensible, difficult to debug or modify, and almost impossible to verify or validate Partitioning rule-based systems into rule groups which reflect the underlying subdomains of the problem should enhance the comprehensibility, maintainability, and reliability of expert-system software. In this paper, we investigate methods to semi-automatically structure a CLIPS rule base e into groups of rules that carry related information. We discuss three different distance metrics for measuring the relatedness of rules and describe two clustering algorithms based on these distance metrics. The results of our experiment with three sample rule bases are also presented.

Mehrotra, Mala↗
NASA NTRS2015

Effects of Resolution and Spectral Nudging in Simulation the Effects of Wintertime Atmospheric River Landfalls in the Western US

Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the climate of the US Pacific coast region as they are frequently related with heavy precipitation and flash flooding events. Thus, the capability of climate models to accurately simulate AR landfalls and their key hydrologic effects is an important practical concern for WUS, from flood forecasting to future water resources projections. In order to examine the effects of model configuration, including the resolution and spectral nudging, in simulating the climatology of key weather events in the conterminous US, a NASA team has performed a hindcast experiment using the GEOS5 global and the NU-WRF regional models for Nov 1999 - Oct 2010. This study examines the skill of these hindcasts, with different models and their configurations, in simulating key footprints of landfalling ARs in the WUS region. Using an AR-landfall chronology based on the vertically-integrated water vapor flux calculated from the MERRA2 reanalysis, we have analyzed the observed and simulated precipitation and temperature anomalies associated with wintertime AR landfalls along the US Pacific coast. Model skill is measured using metrics including regional means, a skill score based on correlations and mean-square errors, and Taylor diagrams in four WUS Bukovsky regions. Results show that the AR-related anomalies of precipitation is more reliable than of surface temperatures. Model skill also varies according to regions. The AR temperature anomalies are well simulated in most of the WUS region except PNW. For precipitation, simulations with finer spatial resolution tend to generate larger spatial variability and agree better with the PRISM data in most regions. Such a resolution dependence of spatial variability is not found for temperatures; e.g., the MERRA2 reanalysis often outperforms, with similar spatial variability and higher pattern correlations with the PRISM data, finer-resolution NU-WRF runs in simulating temperature variations within subregions. Results from this study will be summarized to assist future (regional) climate experiments for climate change impact assessments and developing adaptationmitigation strategies, the key elements of the National Climate Assessment.

Simulation↗
NASA NTRS2021

ATTRACTOR: Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability

Autonomous systems (AS) are crucial to realizing the vision of new, complex transportation modes, such as advanced air mobility (AAM) and urban air mobility (UAM). A chief barrier to induction of AS into aviation is insufficient understanding of AS reliability in time-critical and safety-critical environments—an obstacle to certification. ATTRACTOR is aimed at building a basis for certification of classes of autonomous cyber-physical-human systems (CPHS) via establishing metrics and models of trustworthiness and trust in multi-agent team interactions, analyzable trajectories, explainability of computational algorithms (explainable artificial intelligence, or XAI), and persistent modeling and simulation, in the context of missions planning and operation. By “building a basis for certification,” we mean acquiring an understanding of when a system is trustworthy and developing computable means to estimate trustworthiness and trust in order to eventually inform functional requirements that contribute to certification. The outcomes are applicable not just to aviation but to all domains that rely on autonomous systems.

Autonomy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Development Strategy for Space Nuclear Propulsion

An integrated development strategy to realize operational nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) and nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) systems is presented. A generational development approach is employed, where each generation of a propulsion system is more capable and reliable than the previous. These systems will either enable missions that were not possible or, for missions that could be performed using other systems (including earlier generations of space nuclear systems) will improve the mission metrics, most notably greater delivered mass, reduced trip time, or longer mission endurance. Present and ongoing investments in materials development, component design and testing, and modeling and simulation lead the way in developing demonstration flight systems and expose gaps in the nation’s capabilities. Developing future generations of systems with greater utility will require additional capabilities, including those for large-scale nuclear test and evaluation.

Kurt Polzin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geographical variability of summer- and winter-dominant onshore wind

For each geographical region, one of the biggest challenges in reaching a zero-carbon grid is identifying sources of electricity that match the seasonal profile of the load. Summer-dominant solar electricity generation can often be balanced by winter-dominant wind electricity generation. Together with long-duration storage, balanced solar and wind generation are well positioned to provide reliable renewable electricity. However, in some locations the wind may not complement solar energy so well. For example, currently California's wind turbines produce more electricity during summer than winter, raising the question of whether all future wind plants in California will exhibit the same seasonality. As a response to this question, in this paper, we analyzed the generation from existing California wind plants and simulated potential onshore wind resource for the whole state using a metric that reflects the relative wind resource in winter. Our results indicate that the seasonality of the wind can vary for very small spatial difference with more than half of California showing stronger wind resource in the winter compared with the summer despite the current observation of the opposite trend. This study differentiates the seasonality of potential wind resources to inform the creation of a reliable, 100%-renewable-driven grid.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Application of FDI metrics to detection and isolation of sensor failures in turbine engines

This paper develops a framework for the design of failure detection and isolation (FDI) algorithms. Rather than trying to apply 'optimal' techniques in a top-down manner, the system redundancies are evaluated with respect to their ability to provide reliable FDI information. Previous work of Pattipati et al. (1984) and Weiss et al. (1984) defined a useful context and several useful analytical results, which provide a basis for the FDI design methodology developed here. A general decision structure which can take advantage of redundancy evaluation is presented, and examples of typical design considerations are discussed. The operation of the decision structure is then demonstrated for a sensor FDI application involving the F-100 jet engine.

Weiss, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Simulator of Space Communication Networks

Multimission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) is a suite of software tools that simulates the behaviors of communication networks to be used in space exploration, and predict the performance of established and emerging space communication protocols and services. MACHETE consists of four general software systems: (1) a system for kinematic modeling of planetary and spacecraft motions; (2) a system for characterizing the engineering impact on the bandwidth and reliability of deep-space and in-situ communication links; (3) a system for generating traffic loads and modeling of protocol behaviors and state machines; and (4) a system of user-interface for performance metric visualizations. The kinematic-modeling system makes it possible to characterize space link connectivity effects, including occultations and signal losses arising from dynamic slant-range changes and antenna radiation patterns. The link-engineering system also accounts for antenna radiation patterns and other phenomena, including modulations, data rates, coding, noise, and multipath fading. The protocol system utilizes information from the kinematic-modeling and link-engineering systems to simulate operational scenarios of space missions and evaluate overall network performance. In addition, a Communications Effect Server (CES) interface for MACHETE has been developed to facilitate hybrid simulation of space communication networks with actual flight/ground software/hardware embedded in the overall system.

Clare, Loren↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Filamentary Failure to Durable Halide Perovskite Memristors

Halide perovskites have emerged as promising materials for memristive devices. While their pronounced electrochemical reactivity and fast ionic mobility enable numerous advantages including low-voltage operation and fast switching, the same features also render perovskite-based memristors vulnerable to metallic shunts and poor endurance, limiting their practical applications. Here, we elucidate both the resistive switching and failure mechanisms in perovskite memristors with a fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO)/methylammonium lead triiodide (MAPbI3)/Ag structure and demonstrate a strategy to substantially enhance device durability. As opposed to commonly invoked filamentary mechanisms, electrical, structural, and spectroscopic analyses reveal that resistive switching arises from interfacial barrier modulation by reversible Ag redox reactions that drive electrochemical doping/dedoping within the perovskite. Device failure, however, originates from metallic Ag0 filamentation that ultimately forms permanent conductive pathways. Introducing an ultrathin Al2O3 interlayer at the inert-electrode interface improves device endurance by more than 30-fold, exceeding 15,000 switching cycles, without compromising other performance metrics. Interfacial characterization indicates that the Al2O3 layer modifies wettability of Ag deposits, promoting planar island growth rather than through-film filamentation. These findings establish a clear link between interfacial electrochemistry, metal precipitation behavior, and memristor reliability, highlighting inert-electrode interfacial engineering as an effective pathway toward durable perovskite-based memristors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2007

Symbolic LTL Compilation for Model Checking: Extended Abstract

In Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) model checking, we check LTL formulas representing desired behaviors against a formal model of the system designed to exhibit these behaviors. To accomplish this task, the LTL formulas must be translated into automata [21]. We focus on LTL compilation by investigating LTL satisfiability checking via a reduction to model checking. Having shown that symbolic LTL compilation algorithms are superior to explicit automata construction algorithms for this task [16], we concentrate here on seeking a better symbolic algorithm.We present experimental data comparing algorithmic variations such as normal forms, encoding methods, and variable ordering and examine their effects on performance metrics including processing time and scalability. Safety critical systems, such as air traffic control, life support systems, hazardous environment controls, and automotive control systems, pervade our daily lives, yet testing and simulation alone cannot adequately verify their reliability [3]. Model checking is a promising approach to formal verification for safety critical systems which involves creating a formal mathematical model of the system and translating desired safety properties into a formal specification for this model. The complement of the specification is then checked against the system model. When the model does not satisfy the specification, model-checking tools accompany this negative answer with a counterexample, which points to an inconsistency between the system and the desired behaviors and aids debugging efforts.

Rozier, Kristin Y.↗
DOE OSTI2025

MS25: Materials Science-Focused Benchmark Data Set for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Here, we present MS25, a benchmark data set for evaluating machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) across diverse materials-relevant systems including MgO surfaces, liquid water, zeolites, a catalytic Pt surface reaction, high-entropy alloys (HEAs), and disordered Zr-oxides. Five MLIP architectures (MACE, NequIP, Allegro, MTP, and Torch-ANI) are trained and tested, focusing not only on traditional metrics (energies, forces, and stresses) but also explicitly validating derived physical observables such as lattice constants, volumes, and reaction barriers. We find that most models reach comparable accuracy on standard error metrics across the simple systems, although equivariant MLIPs offer 1.5–2× improvements over nonequivariant MLIPs in energy and force error for structurally complex or compositionally disordered environments such as HEAs and Zr–O systems. Our analysis highlights that low errors in energy and force predictions do not guarantee reliable observables, emphasizing the necessity of explicit validation. We demonstrate limitations in cross-framework transferability, as models trained on one zeolite framework (CHA) fail to reliably generalize to predictions of structurally distinct frameworks (e.g., MFI). Size-extensive tests show some dependence on system size for MgO, resulting from forced periodicity. The HEA and Zr–O data sets are identified as challenging tests for future benchmarks and MLIP model architecture developments as they show significant differentiation in error between MLIP architectures and are still relatively difficult at 1000 training images. Moving forward, we recommend that benchmarking efforts shift their focus from marginal accuracy improvements in energy and force errors toward identifying and understanding model failure modes, rigorously assessing transferability, and evaluating how their errors affect observable predictions. For researchers looking to choose an MLIP architecture, we suggest selecting equivariant MLIP architectures if the complexity of the system is a challenge. For simple materials problems, auxiliary features such as integration with molecular dynamics engines, trade-offs between computational data set generation cost vs MLIP inference speed, and framework integration may play a more important decision factor than small differences in error metrics that are unlikely to matter for production-level research.

chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance Monitoring Program: Developing Comparative Metrics for Fitness-for-Duty Programs

To comply with U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations, licensees and entities authorized under Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 26 Section 26.3 (§ 26.3) are required to have fitness-for-duty (FFD) programs. Under § 26.3, the expectation of these FFD programs is to provide reasonable assurance that individuals who are granted unescorted access to nuclear power reactor protected areas and Category I fuel cycle facility material control areas are trustworthy, will perform their tasks in a reliable manner, are not under the influence of any substance, legal or illegal, that may impair their ability to perform their duties, and are not mentally or physically impaired from any cause that can adversely affect their ability to safely and competently perform their duties. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked with developing a performance monitoring program to risk inform NRC inspection and policy regarding quantitative FFD performance data. To meet this need, PNNL developed methodologies that could be implemented within a performance monitoring program. Throughout this report, these methodologies are referred to as comparative metrics. The NRC provided PNNL with 2016–2019 data from annual reporting forms and single positive test forms provided by licensees and other entities. For most of the comparative metrics, the analyses required customized processing, such as creating filtering fields, adding data fields and summaries, and joining datasets. The comparative metrics developed include: random testing rate, random policy violation rate, pre-access policy violation rate, subversion attempt rate, and number of policy violations by labor category. The comparative metrics can be used for parsing and visualizing FFD program data and monitoring FFD performance at the labor category, facility, licensee, and industry levels to risk inform NRC inspection and policy with regard to the FFD data currently collected from licensees and other entities that implement Part 26 requirements. Furthermore, these developed comparative metrics allow a more in-depth look at the FFD programs for the industry to discern trends and patterns that may warrant changes at an industry level and to inform policy decisions. These analyses should be refreshed as new FFD data become available.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Understanding of Low-to-Moderate Income Customers’ Adoption and Financial Qualification in Community Solar (Final Technical Report)

When Solstice began working in the community solar industry, it quickly became clear that there was a wide disparity along race and class lines in terms of what kind of household traditional solar offerings benefited. Solstice is an organization that aligns itself to the principles of a Just Transition, or the concept that a transition to a green economy should benefit and prioritize historically marginalized groups of people. Given that low-income communities are disproportionately burdened by our current polluting fossil fuel economy, Solstice set out to investigate the root causes of the exclusion of low to moderate income (LMI) households in the community solar market. As we worked more and more with financiers, developers, and LMI households, we recognized that significant barriers to entry in a developer-owned project were credit threshold requirements. A FICO score of 750 and higher discriminates against LMI households that are not financially stable enough to take on multiple lines of credit (or who may not have been deemed credit worthy enough to access a line of credit) yet who may have been reliable utility customers. As Solstice began looking further into preliminary data and speaking to community-based organizations (CBOs) that serve LMI households, we found our hypothesis to be worth investigating; there was indeed a subset of LMI households with poor FICO scores (or no FICO score at all) that had perfect bill payment history. Though initially Solstice was intent on gathering a body of data to prove or disprove this hypothesis, we were also concerned that all this proof of a financially stable and reliable customer was not being incorporated into FICO, and wondered if such a score would be possible. After preliminary research into the existence of alternative scores, Solstice realized that many mission-driven lending institutions rely on alternative metrics that are formulated for their specific industry. However, we also realized that community solar did not have an alternative credit underwriting mechanism, though there was great need from solar financiers for one. We anticipated that the creation of an EnergyScore would contribute to financiers’ need to qualify more people, as these entities are desperately looking for ways to lower the cost of customer acquisition. FICO turns away nearly 50% of potential customers (according to our own acquisition experience), and much of the community solar industry is realizing that FICO is not the perfect qualifying mechanism. Additionally, with a grounding in energy justice, just transitions, and climate justice, Solstice recognizes the need for a solution that addresses a more urgent need for LMI households to access renewable energy savings and relieve energy burdens. With funding from the Department of Energy, we gathered the data necessary to build the EnergyScore, reached out to mission-driven developers willing to test the metric, and secured several demonstration projects to pilot the EnergyScore. After acquiring customers for these demo projects using the EnergyScore, we will be continuously collecting customer payment behavior data. Though it goes beyond the scope of this project, we plan to disseminate this de-identified data with the wider community solar industry, which includes not only financiers and developers, but other mission-driven nonprofits, solar cooperatives, community-based organizations, environmental justice activists, and academics. While we intend to disprove the notion that LMI households cannot be included in projects without acutely increasing the risk to project finances, we also hope the data can be used to negotiate better pricing of systems and terms of ownership for community groups seeking to build inclusive projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Smith, Brett A.↗