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At least 379 records · Page 21

Temperature effects on the universal equation of state of solids

Recently it has been argued based on theoretical calculations and experimental data that there is a universal form for the equation of state of solids. This observation was restricted to the range of temperatures and pressures such that there are no phase transitions. The use of this universal relation to estimate pressure-volume relations (i.e., isotherms) required three input parameters at each fixed temperature. It is shown that for many solids the input data needed to predict high temperature thermodynamical properties can be dramatically reduced. In particular, only four numbers are needed: (1) the zero pressure (P = 0) isothermal bulk modulus; (2) its P = 0 pressure derivative; (3) the P = 0 volume; and (4) the P = 0 thermal expansion; all evaluated at a single (reference) temperature. Explicit predictions are made for the high temperature isotherms, the thermal expansion as a function of temperature, and the temperature variation of the isothermal bulk modulus and its pressure derivative. These predictions are tested using experimental data for three representative solids: gold, sodium chloride, and xenon. Good agreement between theory and experiment is found.

Vinet, Pascal↗

Synthesis and Assimilation Systems - Essential Adjuncts to the Global Ocean Observing System

Ocean assimilation systems synthesize diverse in situ and satellite data streams into four-dimensional state estimates by combining the various observations with the model. Assimilation is particularly important for the ocean where subsurface observations, even today, are sparse and intermittent compared with the scales needed to represent ocean variability and where satellites only sense the surface. Developments in assimilation and in the observing system have advanced our understanding and prediction of ocean variations at mesoscale and climate scales. Use of these systems for assessing the observing system helps identify the strengths of each observation type. Results indicate that the ocean remains under-sampled and that further improvements in the observing system are needed. Prospects for future advances lie in improved models and better estimates of error statistics for both models and observations. Future developments will be increasingly towards consistent analyses across components of the Earth system. However, even today ocean synthesis and assimilation systems are providing products that are useful for many applications and should be considered an integral part of the global ocean observing and information system.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

Stardust-NExT, Deep Impact, and the Accelerating Spin of 9P/Tempel One

The evolution of the spin rate of comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (CYs 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13y as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and 2888 observations taken over a period of 50d from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 +/- 0.025 degrees /day (41.335 +/- 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 +/- 0.016 degrees/day (41.055 +/- 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 +/- 0.030 degrees/day (40.783 +/- 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 +/- 0.012 degrees /day (40.827 +/- 0.002 h) in the interval 2006-2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 +/- 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 +/- 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 +/- 0.003 degree/d/d at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 d before impact) and provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations. The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180 degree error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 20:42. We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3 - 2.5 x 10(exp 7) kg.square m2/square s acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than approximately 1 degree/perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque that occurs before perihelion is in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H2O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗

The Global Observing System in the Assimilation Context

Weather and climate analyses and predictions all rely on the global observing system. However, the observing system, whether atmosphere, ocean, or land surface, yields a diverse set of incomplete observations of the different components of Earth s environment. Data assimilation systems are essential to synthesize the wide diversity of in situ and remotely sensed observations into four-dimensional state estimates by combining the various observations with model-based estimates. Assimilation, or associated tools and products, are also useful in providing guidance for the evolution of the observing system of the future. This paper provides a brief overview of the global observing system and information gleaned through assimilation tools, and presents some evaluations of observing system gaps and issues.

Reinecker, Michele M.↗

Hazard Boresight Relative Navigation for Safe Lunar Landing

In the area of planetary landing, hazard detection and avoidance is the act of driving a vehicle to a safe landing area using onboard resources. A hazard detection sensor is used to scan the terrain and these measurements are evaluated to determine where the safe landing sites are located. The selected site is generally not the same as the nominal target, so the vehicle must divert to the new site. This activity involves the interaction between several components, including a suite of onboard GNC algorithms that work together to efficiently choose and divert to a new site. This paper presents the Hazard Boresight Relative Navigation concept, which is a method that provides a common interface between the hazard scan, safe-site selection algorithm, size of the target-relative landing ellipse, divert offset distance and guidance targeting algorithm. After the safe-site is selected from the hazard scan, the original inertial target is replaced with a vehicle-relative target, which is initialized by a measurement from the hazard scan. The new target-relative position state is estimated over time in the navigation filter, and is fed to the guidance algorithm to perform the divert maneuver. In addition to detailing the Hazard Boresight Relative Navigation concept, this paper also presents some general landing terms that can be used in the greater discussion, as well as analysis on how to estimate and predict the vehicle footprint dispersion ellipse during flight, which is used in the safe-site selection algorithm.

Stephen R. Steffes↗

Hazard Boresight Relative Navigation for Safe Lunar Landing

In the area of planetary landing, hazard detection and avoidance is the act of driving a vehicle to a safe landing area using onboard resources. A hazard detection sensor is used to scan the terrain and these measurements are evaluated to determine where the safe landing sites are located. The selected site is generally not the same as the nominal target, so the vehicle must divert to the new site. This activity involves the interaction between several components, including a suite of onboard GNC algorithms that work together to efficiently choose and divert to a new site. This paper presents the Hazard Boresight Relative Navigation concept, which is a method that provides a common interface between the hazard scan, safe-site selection algorithm, size of the target-relative landing ellipse, divert offset distance and guidance targeting algorithm. After the safe-site is selected from the hazard scan, the original inertial target is replaced with a vehicle-relative target, which is initialized by a measurement from the hazard scan. The new target-relative position state is estimated over time in the navigation filter, and is fed to the guidance algorithm to perform the divert maneuver. In addition to detailing the Hazard Boresight Relative Navigation concept, this paper also presents some general landing terms that can be used in the greater discussion, as well as analysis on how to estimate and predict the vehicle footprint dispersion ellipse during flight, which is used in the safe-site selection algorithm.

Stephen Steffes↗

Deformation across the western United States: A local estimate of Pacific-North America transform deformation

We obtain a locally based estimate of Pacific-North America relative motion and an uncertainly in this estimate by integrating deformation rate along three different paths leading west across southwestern North America from east of the Rio Grande Rift to near the continental escarpment. Data are primarily Quatenary geologic slip rates estimates, and resulting deformation determinations therefore are 'instantaneous' in a geologic sense but 'long term' with respect to earthquake cycles. We deduce a rate of motion of the Pacific plane relative to North America that is 48 +/- 2 mm/yr, a rate indistinguishable from that predicted by the global kinematics models RM2 and NUVEL-1; however, we obtain an orientation that is 5-9 deg counterclockwise of these models. A more westerly motion of the Pacific plate, with respect to North America, is calculated from all three paths. The relatively westerly motion of the Pacific plate is accomodated by deformation in the North American continent that includes slip on relatively counterclockwise-oriented strike-slip faults (including the San Andreas fault), whic is especially relevant in and south of the Transverse Ranges, and a margin-normal component of net extension across the continent, which is especially relevant north of the Transverse Ranges. Deformation of the SW United States occurs in regionally coherent domains within the style of deformation is approximately uniform.

Humphreys, Eugene D.↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins,". As described in Kumar et al., 2007, and demonstrated in Case et al., 2008, and Santanello et al., 2009, LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling the enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation as described in Peters-Lidard et al. (2008) and Santanello et al. (2007), who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs. LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation (Kumar et al., 2008) using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature. Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation. Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeoroogical modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Estimating Transient Pressure Surges in Cryogenic Systems

Potentially-damaging pressure waves anticipated and, therefore, avoided. Mathematical model developed for prediction of pressure behavior in single-and two-phase cryogenic systems. Transient liquid-flow analysis modified to incorporate behavior of vapor bubbles and used to predict maximum pressure in cryogenic transfer systems consisting of complex pipe and valve arrangements under both steady-state and transient conditions. Simulation compared favorably with data obtained during transfer of liquid oxygen from ground storage tanks to Space Shuttle orbiter external tanks. Program written in FORTRAN 77 for batch execution.

Pfister, P.↗

Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

Bowyer, J. M.↗

Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

video acuity↗

Expectation vs. Reality: The Sunrise Problem Applied to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The Sunrise Problem is succinctly stated as a question: “what is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?” Attempts to answer this seemingly simple question reveal unexpected incongruities between statistical/probabilistic estimates and “real-world” expectations. Rather than being a purely philosophical problem, similar incongruities can be found in reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analyses. These differences between statistical predictions and demonstrated reliability can result in analysis shortcomings that should be addressed and resolved. This presentation will begin by discussing the nature of the Sunrise Problem and how it applies to PRA and reliability. Examples of the Sunrise Problem in a PRA estimate will also be included, along with tips to identify and resolve the shortcomings that result from these anomalous situations.

Sunrise Problem↗

Magnetostrophic balance in planetary dynamos - Predictions for Neptune's magnetosphere

With the purpose of estimating Neptune's magnetic field and its implications for nonthermal Neptune radio emissions, a new scaling law for planetary magnetic fields was developed in terms of externally observable parameters (the planet's mean density, radius, mass, rotation rate, and internal heat source luminosity). From a comparison of theory and observations by Voyager it was concluded that planetary dynamos are two-state systems with either zero intrinsic magnetic field (for planets with low internal heat source) or (for planets with the internal heat source sufficiently strong to drive convection) a magnetic field near the upper bound determined from magnetostrophic balance. It is noted that mass loading of the Neptune magnetosphere by Triton may play an important role in the generation of nonthermal radio emissions.

Curtis, S. A.↗

Inhibition of solar wind impingement on Mercury by planetary induction currents

Analytic methods are developed for taking into account finite planetary conductivity in modeling departures from equilibrium of a magnetospheric boundary caused by solar wind stagnation pressure variations. Using the lowest suggested value of the planetary dipole moment (2.4 x 10 to the 22nd G cu cm), it is estimated that a minimum pressure of about 38 P sub 0 (where P sub 0 is the external stagnation pressure in the steady state) is required to force the standoff distance down to the subsolar surface of Mercury if the pressure change persists for at least 1 day. This value is 4.3 times that which would be predicted if Mercury had no core, and it is larger than the maximum pressure predicted at Mercury's orbit (about 25 P sub 0) on the basis of hourly averaged solar wind statistics at 1 AU.

Hood, L. L.↗

Application of the mixing-reaction in series model to NO/x/-O3 plume chemistry

The mixing-reaction in series model developed by Ghodsizadem (1978) is successfully applied to the study of NO oxidation in the near-source portion of the Potomac Electric Company's Morgantown, Maryland power plant plume. The model employs a single parameter. With initial conditions consistent with the plume data measured by Davis et al. (1974) and utilizing the mixing parameter estimated from the study by Shu et al. (1978), the predicted temporal profiles of the ratio of the concentration of NO2 to NO, of NO2 to NO plus NO2, in-plume concentrations of NO and O3, and fraction of NO remaining are consistent with field study data. In addition, the model predicts large deviations from the photostationary state in the near-source portion of the plume, also consistent with field study data. In the far field region of this plume (t greater than approximately 20 min), the mixing processes are essentially complete over much of the plume cross-section.

Carmichael, G. R.↗

Application of cosmic-ray shock theories to the Cygnus Loop - An alternative model

Steady state cosmic-ray shock models are investigated here in the light of observations of the Cygnus Loop supernova remnant. The predicted downstream temperature is derived for each model. The Cygnus Loop data and the application of the models to them, including wave dissipation, are presented. Heating rate and ionization fraction structures are provided along with an estimate of the cosmic-ray diffusion coefficient. It is found that the model of Voelk, Drury, and McKenzie (1984), in which the plasma waves are generated by the streaming instability of the cosmic rays and are dissipated into the gas, can be made consistent with some observed characteristics of the Cygnus Loop shocks. The model is used to deduce upstream densities and shock velocities and, compared to the usual pure gas shock interpretation, it is found that lower densities and approximately three times higher velocities are required.

Boulares, Ahmed↗

Tentative Identification of Interstellar CS by UV Absorption in the C-X Transition

Current chemical models of translucent clouds imply that sulfur is depleted with respect to its average abundance in diffuse clouds as determined by Morton (1975 ApJ,197, 85) by factors exceeding 10. Existing gigahertz emission observations yield sizable uncertainties in the column densities to background stars, and attempts to measure column densities of CS in the lines-of-sight to various stars through the absorption in the A-X (0,0) electronic transition near 257.6 nm have been unsuccessful. CS dissociates primarily through discrete absorptions into predissociating states. In analogy with CO the strongest of these is the C-X band found near 140.0 nm. We report the tentative identification of the C-X band of CS in the interstellar spectra of HD 24398 (zeta Per), HD 148184 (chi Oph), and HD 154368. The estimated column densities will be compared to the predictions of prevailing chemical models.

Smith, Andrew↗

A Stellar-mass Black Hole in the Ultra-luminous X-ray Source M82 X-1

We have analyzed the archival XMM-Newton data of the archetypal Ultra-Luminous X-ray Source (ULX) M82 X-1 with an LO5 ksec exposure when the source was in the steady state. Thanks to the high photon statistics from the large effective area and long exposure, we were able to discriminate different X-ray continuum spectral models. Neither the standard accretion disk model (where the radial dependency of the disk effective temperature is T(r) proportional to r(sup -3/4)) nor a power-law model gives a satisfactory fit. In fact, observed curvature of the M82 X-1 spectrum was just between those of the two models. When the exponent of the radial dependence (p in T(r) proportional to r(sup -P)) of the disk temperature is allowed to be free, we obtained p = 0.61 (sup +0.03)(sub -0.02). Such a reduction of p from the standard value 3/4 under extremely high mass accretion rates is predicted from the accretion disk theory as a consequence of the radial energy advection. Thus, the accretion disk in M82 X-1 is considered to be in the Slim disk state, where an optically thick Advection Dominant Accretion Flow (ADAF) is taking place. We have applied a theoretical slim disk spectral model to M82 X-1, and estimated the black hole mass approximately equal to 19 - 32 solar mass. We conclude that M82 X-1 is a stellar black hole which has been produced through evolution of an extremely massive star, shining at a several times the super-Eddington luminosity.

Okajima, Takashi↗