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Results for “predictive state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1978

Development of a phase-change thermal storage system using modified anhydrous sodium hydroxide for solar electric power generation

A thermal storage system for use in solar power electricity generation was investigated analytically and experimentally. The thermal storage medium is principally anhydrous NaOH with 8% NaNO3 and 0.2% MnO2. Heat is charged into storage at 584 K and discharged from storage at 582 K by Therminol-66. Physical and thermophysical properties of the storage medium were measured. A mathematical simulation and computer program describing the operation of the system were developed. A 1/10 scale model of a system capable of storing and delivering 3.1 x 10 to the 6th power kJ of heat was designed, built, and tested. Tests included steady state charging, discharging, idling, and charge-discharge conditions simulating a solar daily cycle. Experimental data and computer-predicted results are correlated. A reference design including cost estimates of the full-size system was developed.

Cohen, B. M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On waveform multigrid method

Waveform multigrid method is an efficient method for solving certain classes of time dependent PDEs. This paper studies the relationship between this method and the analogous multigrid method for steady-state problems. Using a Fourier-Laplace analysis, practical convergence rate estimates of the waveform multigrid iterations are obtained. Experimental results show that the analysis yields accurate performance prediction.

Taasan, Shlomo↗
NASA NTRS2015

Cauchy Drag Estimation For Low Earth Orbiters

Recent work on minimum variances estimators based on Cauchy distributions appear relevant to orbital drag estimation. Samples form Cauchy distributions which are part of a class of heavy-tailed distributions, are characterized by long stretches of fairly small variation, punctuated by large variations that are many times larger than could be expected from a Gaussian. Such behavior can occur when solar storms perturb the atmosphere. In this context, the present work describes an embedding of the scalar Idan-Speyer Cauchy Estimator to estimate density corrections, within an Extended Kalman Filter that estimates the state of a low Earth orbiter. In contrast to the baseline Kalman approach, the larger formal errors of the present approach fully and conservatively bound the predictive error distribution, even in the face of unanticipated density disturbances of hundreds of percent.

Low Earth↗
NASA NTRS2015

M-MRAC Backstepping for Systems with Unknown Virtual Control Coefficients

The paper presents an over-parametrization free certainty equivalence state feedback backstepping adaptive control design method for systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties and unknown virtual control coefficients. It uses a fast prediction model to estimate the unknown parameters, which is independent of the control design. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters. The benefits of the approach are demonstrated in numerical simulations.

Certainty equivalence control↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Data Fusion of In-Flight Aerothermodynamic Heating Measurements Using Kalman Filtering

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 entry system successfully delivered the Perseverance rover to the surface of Mars at Jezero Crater. The entry capsule carried instrumentation installed on the heatshield and backshell, named the Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2. The instruments included pressure transducers, thermocouples, heat flux gauges, and a radiometer to measure the aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance of the entry vehicle. Three of these sensors, a thermocouple plug, heat flux gauge, and a radiometer, were co-located on the backshell. The sensors were exposed to roughly the same aerodynamic heating, but measured these environments in different ways, each with its own set of modeling and measurement error complications. This paper develops a method for blending each of these measurements together in a single algorithm to produce estimates of the aerothermodynamic environments at that backshell location. The approach makes use of the Kalman-Schmidt filter/smoother methodology, where systematic measurement error parameters are modeled as multiplicative states that are estimated by the filter along with the aerothermal states. The results indicate peak convective and radiative heating values of 0.86 and 5.16 W/cm2, respectively, compared to the filter predictive model values of 0.67 and 4.83 W/cm2.

Christopher D Karlgaard↗
NASA NTRS2013

SMAP Radar Processing and Calibration

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is part of the NASA space-based Earth observation program, and consists of an L-band radar and radiometer scheduled for launch into sun synchronous orbit in late 2014. A joint effort of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the SMAP mission draws heavily on the design and risk reduction heritage of the Hydrosphere State (Hydros) mission [1], [2]. The SMAP science and applications objectives are to: 1) understand processes that link the terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, 2) estimate global water and energy fluxes at the land surface, 3) quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes, 4) enhance weather and climate forecast skill, and 5) develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capability. To meet these science objectives, SMAP ground processing will combine the attributes of the radar and radiometer observations (in terms of their spatial resolution and sensitivity to soil moisture, surface roughness, and vegetation) to estimate soil moisture with 4% volumetric accuracy at a resolution of 10 km, and freeze-thaw state at a resolution of 1-3 km. Model sensitivities translate the soil moisture accuracy to a radar backscatter accuracy of 1 dB (1 sigma) at 3 km resolution and a brightness temperature accuracy of 1.3 K at 40 km resolution. This paper will describe the level 1 radar processing and calibration challenges and the choices made so far for the algorithms and software implementation.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR),↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synergistic Retrieval of Temperature and Humidity Profiles from Space-Based and Ground-Based Infrared Sounders Using an Optimal Estimation Method

The atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles of the troposphere are generally measured by radiosondes and satellites, which are essential for analyzing and predicting weather. Nevertheless, the insufficient observation frequencies and low detection accuracy of the boundary layer restricts the description of atmospheric state changes by the temperature and humidity profiles. Therefore, this work focus on retrieving the temperature and humidity profiles using observations of the FengYun-4 (FY-4) Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) combined with ground-based infrared spectral observations from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), which are more accurate than space-based individual retrieval results and have a wider effective retrieval range than ground-based individual retrieval results. Based on the synergistic observations, which are made by matching the space-based and ground-based data with those of different spatial and temporal resolutions, a synergistic retrieval process is proposed to obtain the temperature and humidity profiles at a high frequency under clear-sky conditions based on the optimal estimation method. In this research, using the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) as the forward model for observing simulations, a retrieval experiment was carried out in Qingdao, China, where an AERI is situated. Taking radiosonde data as a reference for comparing the retrieval results of the temperature and humidity profiles of the troposphere, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the synergistic retrieval algorithm below 400 hPa is within 2 K for temperature and within 12% for relative humidity. Compared with the GIIRS individual retrieval, the RMSE of temperature and relative humidity for the synergistic method is reduced by 0.13–1.5 K and 2.7–4.4% at 500 hPa, and 0.13–2.1 K and 2.5–7.2% at 900 hPa. Moreover, the forecast index (FI) calculated from the retrieval results shows reasonable consistency with the FIs calculated from the ERA5 reanalysis and from radiosonde data. The synergistic retrieval results have higher temporal resolution than space-based retrieval results and can reflect the changes in the atmospheric state more accurately. Overall, the results demonstrated the promising potential of the synergistic retrieval of temperature and humidity profiles at high accuracy and high temporal resolution under clear-sky conditions from FY-4/GIIRS and AERI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

On attitude estimation schemes for fine-pointing control

This paper studies single-axis equations of motion that are applicable to a spacecraft or to a space experiment pointing assembly whose motion has been perfectly isolated from the carrier vehicle. It considers four state estimators for implementation in the control loop for a stellar observation experiment. The first three estimators are very general and do not make use of input torque in their prediction models, while the proposed fourth estimator utilizes this information. It is shown via closed-loop covariance analysis that the best achievable pointing performance with the best of the first three estimators is limited to about 0.125 arc-sec (rms) with the given rate-gyro and star-tracker inaccuracies. It is also shown that the fourth estimator has the capability of achieving a pointing performance far superior to the performance achievable using the first three estimators. The fourth estimator relies on the ability to accurately generate the desired control torque (i.e., low input noise).

Joshi, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An efficient algorithm for estimating noise covariances in distributed systems

An efficient computational algorithm for estimating the noise covariance matrices of large linear discrete stochatic-dynamic systems is presented. Such systems arise typically by discretizing distributed-parameter systems, and their size renders computational efficiency a major consideration. The proposed adaptive filtering algorithm is based on the ideas of Belanger, and is algebraically equivalent to his algorithm. The earlier algorithm, however, has computational complexity proportional to p to the 6th, where p is the number of observations of the system state, while the new algorithm has complexity proportional to only p-cubed. Further, the formulation of noise covariance estimation as a secondary filter, analogous to state estimation as a primary filter, suggests several generalizations of the earlier algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated for a distributed system arising in numerical weather prediction.

Dee, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Modelling the growth of triglycine sulphate crystals in Spacelab 3

Two triglycine sulphate crystals were grown from an aqueous solution on the Spacelab 3 mission. Using a diffusion coefficient of 0.00002 sq cm/sec, a computer simulation gave reasonable agreement between experimental and theoretical crystal sizes and interferometric lines in the solution near the growing crystal. This diffusion coefficient is larger than most measured values, possibly due to fluctuating accelerations on the order of 0.001 g. The average acceleration was estimated to be less than 10 to the -6th g. At this level buoyancy-driven convection is predicted to add approximately 20 percent to the steady-state growth rate.

Yoo, Hak-Do↗
NASA NTRS2009

Developing a Model-based Capability to Analyze Requirements for the Climate Observing System

Models are foundational for estimating states of the earth's climate system, both as tools to extrapolate information in time and space, and as observation 'operators' used to relate what is analyzed and predicted to what is observed. Expanding the simulation approach further, observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are designed to mimic the complete process of analyzing the climate state by replacing real observations with entirely simulated ones determined from a model-based depiction of nature. OSSEs provide a framework to 'fly' simulated satellite instruments through a synthetic atmosphere and investigate the trade-spaces of measurements for various satellite configurations and sampling strategies, and assess their measurement impact on modeling and forecasting capabilities. Such a tool is a crucial but as yet unfulfilled need for future mission selection and design. The components of a state-of-the-art OSSE system are being assembled at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Code 610.1) at NASA/GSFC, leveraging on the GMAO's existing modeling and data assimilation infrastructure for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The OSSE framework is based on the GMAO's Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model, version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) observational analysis scheme, combined with the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) model developed by the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch (Code 613.3). This system is an evolving, key component of Goddard's planned development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) capability, which will bring together into a single, fully interactive system Goddard's modeling and assimilation efforts in atmosphere, ocean and chemistry and aerosols to provide a comprehensive analysis and prediction system for weather and climate In addition to providing a state-of-the-art capability for assimilating current observation types, GEOS-5, and the future IESA, provide the capability to identify the need for, and assess the potential impact of, future observing systems under consideration for improving weather and climate prediction.

Gelaro, Ronald↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Data Fusion of In-Flight Aerothermodynamic Heating Measurements Using Kalman Filtering

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 entry system successfully delivered the Perseverance rover to the surface of Mars at Jezero Crater. The entry capsule carried instrumentation installed on the heatshield and backshell, named the Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2. The instruments included pressure transducers, thermocouples, heat flux gauges, and a radiometer to measure the aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance of the entry vehicle. Three of these sensors, a thermocouple plug, heat flux gauge, and a radiometer, were co-located on the backshell. The sensors were exposed to roughly the same aerodynamic heating, but measured these environments in different ways, each with its own set of modeling and measurement error complications. This paper develops a method for blending each of these measurements together in a single algorithm to produce estimates of the aerothermodynamic environments at that backshell location. The approach makes use of the Kalman-Schmidt filter/smoother methodology, where systematic measurement error parameters are modeled as multiplicative states that are estimated by the filter along with the aerothermal states. The results indicate peak convective and radiative heating values of 0.86 and 5.16 W/cm$^2$, respectively, compared to the filter predictive model values of 0.67 and 4.83 W/cm$^2$.

Christopher D Karlgaard↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of 31 P levels near the proton threshold with nuclear resonance fluorescence and the impact on the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P thermonuclear rate

We investigated the nuclear structure of 31 P near the proton threshold using nuclear resonance fluorescence (NRF) to refine the properties of key resonances in the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P reaction, which is critical for nucleosynthesis in stellar environments. Excitation energies and spin-parities were determined for several states, including two unobserved resonances at 𝐸 𝑟 = 18.7keV and 𝐸 𝑟 = 50.5keV. The angular correlation analysis enabled the first unambiguous determination of the orbital angular momentum transfer for these states. These results provide a significant update to the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P thermonuclear reaction rate, with direct implications for models of nucleosynthesis in globular clusters and other astrophysical sites. The revised rate is substantially lower than previous estimates at temperatures below 200 MK, affecting predictions for silicon isotopic abundances in stellar environments. Furthermore, our work demonstrates the power of NRF in constraining nuclear properties, and provides a framework for future studies of low-energy resonances relevant to astrophysical reaction rates.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
NASA NTRS2019

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Virtual Battery Modeling of Uncertain Electrical Loads using Variational Autoencoder

Effective utilization of flexible loads for grid services, while satisfying end-user preferences and constraints, requires an accurate estimation of the aggregated predictive flexibility offered by the electrical loads. Recently, there have been efforts to quantify the predictive flexibility of thermostatic loads (e.g. residential air-conditioners, electric water-heaters) using the notion of virtual battery (VB), whose state evolution is governed by a first order dynamics including self-dissipation rate, and power and energy capacities. Identifying the VB model parameters for a collection of thermostatic loads, however, is challenging primarily due to uncertainties and lack of information regarding the end-user behavior, underlying device models and parameters. In this paper, we propose a \textit{variational autoencoder}-based deep learning algorithm to identify the parameters of the VB model. Using available sensors and meters data, the proposed algorithm generates not only point estimates of the VB parameters, but also confidence intervals around those values. Effectiveness of the proposed frameworks is demonstrated on a collection of electric water-heater loads, whose operation is driven by uncertain water usage profiles.

virtual battery, deep learning algorithms↗
NASA NTRS1972

Perceived noisiness under anechoic, semi-reverberant and earphone listening conditions

Magnitude estimates by each of 31 listeners were obtained for a variety of noise sources under three methods of stimuli presentation: loudspeaker presentation in an anechoic chamber, loudspeaker presentation in a normal semi-reverberant room, and earphone presentation. Comparability of ratings obtained in these environments were evaluated with respect to predictability of ratings from physical measures, reliability of ratings, and to the scale values assigned to various noise stimuli. Acoustic environment was found to have little effect upon physical predictive measures and ratings of perceived noisiness were little affected by the acoustic environment in which they were obtained. The need for further study of possible differing interactions between judged noisiness of steady state sound and the methods of magnitude estimation and paired comparisons is indicated by the finding that in these tests the subjects, though instructed otherwise, apparently judged the maximum rather than the effective magnitude of steady-state noises.

Clarke, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Isotopic Ratios in Titan's Methane: Measurements and Modeling

The existence of methane in Titan's atmosphere (approx. 6% level at the surface) presents a unique enigma, as photochemical models predict that the current inventory will be entirely depleted by photochemistry in a timescale of approx 20 Myr. In this paper, we examine the clues available from isotopic ratios (C-12/C-13 and D/H) in Titan's methane as to the past atmosphere history of this species. We first analyze recent infrared spectra of CH4 collected by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer, measuring simultaneously for the first time the abundances of all three detected minor isotopologues: (13)CH4, (12)CH3D, and (13)CH3D. From these we compute estimates of C-12/C-13 = 86.5 +/- 8.2 and D/H = (1.59 +/- 0.33) x 10(exp -4) , in agreement with recent results from the Huygens GCMS and Cassini INMS instruments. We also use the transition state theory to estimate the fractionation that occurs in carbon and hydrogen during a critical reaction that plays a key role in the chemical depletion of Titan's methane: CH4 + C2H yields CH3 + C2H2. Using these new measurements and predictions we proceed to model the time evolution of C-12/C-13 and D/H in Titan's methane under several prototypical replenishment scenarios. In our Model 1 (no resupply of CH4), we find that the present-day C-12/C-13 implies that the CH4 entered the atmosphere 60-1600 Myr ago if methane is depleted by chemistry and photolysis alone, but much more recently-most likely less than 10 Myr ago-if hydrodynamic escape is also occurring. On the other hand, if methane has been continuously supplied at the replenishment rate then the isotopic ratios provide no constraints, and likewise for the case where atmospheric methane is increasing, We conclude by discussing how these findings may be combined with other evidence to constrain the overall history of the atmospheric methane.

Nixon, C. A.↗