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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Predicting Pilot Performance in Off-Nominal Conditions: A Meta-Analysis and Model Validation

Pilot response to off-nominal (very rare) events represents a critical component to understanding the safety of next generation airspace technology and procedures. We describe a meta-analysis designed to integrate the existing data regarding pilot accuracy of detecting rare, unexpected events such as runway incursions in realistic flight simulations. Thirty-five studies were identified and pilot responses were categorized by expectancy, event location, and whether the pilot was flying with a highway-in-the-sky display. All three dichotomies produced large, significant effects on event miss rate. A model of human attention and noticing, N-SEEV, was then used to predict event noticing performance as a function of event salience and expectancy, and retinal eccentricity. Eccentricity is predicted from steady state scanning by the SEEV model of attention allocation. The model was used to predict miss rates for the expectancy, location and highway-in-the-sky (HITS) effects identified in the meta-analysis. The correlation between model-predicted results and data from the meta-analysis was 0.72.

Wickens, C.D.↗
NASA NTRS1966

Human transfer functions used to predict system performance parameters

Automatic, parameter-tracking, model-matching technique compares the responses of a human operator with those of an analog computer model of a human operator to predict and analyze the performance of mechanical or electromechanical systems prior to construction. Transfer functions represent the input-output relation of an operator controlling a closed-loop system.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AIIO: Using Artificial Intelligence for Job-Level and Automatic I/O Performance Bottleneck Diagnosis

Manually diagnosing the I/O performance bottleneck for a single application (hereinafter referred to as the "job level'') is a tedious and error-prone procedure requiring domain scientists to have deep knowledge of complex storage systems. However, existing automatic methods for I/O performance bottleneck diagnosis have one major issue: the granularity of the analysis is at the platform or group level and the diagnosis results cannot be applied to the individual application. To address this issue, we designed and developed a method named "Artificial Intelligence for I/O"(AIIO), which uses AI and its interpretation technology to diagnose I/O performance bottlenecks at the job level automatically. By considering the sparsity of I/O log files, employing multiple AI models for performance prediction, merging diagnosis results across multiple models, and generalizing its performance prediction and diagnosis functions, AIIO can accurately and robustly identify the bottleneck of an even unseen application. Experimental results show that real and unseen applications can use the diagnosis results from AIIO to improve their I/O performance by at most 146 times.

Dong, Bin↗
NASA NTRS1980

Spherical roller bearing analysis. SKF computer program SPHERBEAN. Volume 3: Program correlation with full scale hardware tests

The results of a series of full scale hardware tests comparing predictions of the SPHERBEAN computer program with measured data are presented. The SPHERBEAN program predicts the thermomechanical performance characteristics of high speed lubricated double row spherical roller bearings. The degree of correlation between performance predicted by SPHERBEAN and measured data is demonstrated. Experimental and calculated performance data is compared over a range in speed up to 19,400 rpm (0.8 MDN) under pure radial, pure axial, and combined loads.

Kleckner, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Space-Based Telemetry And Range Safety Flight Demonstration #1

The basic ability of STARS to maintain a satellite communications link with TDRSS satellites during dynamic aircraft flights was successfully demonstrated during FD 1. The Range Safety and Range User systems' link margins were measured. The ability to acquire/reacquire and maintain lock between a high-dynamic vehicle and a satellite-based system was demonstrated. The Range Safety system simultaneously received and processed command links from space and ground transmitters and provided near real-time Range Safety telemetry to DFRC, which then sent it in near real time to KSC, GSFC, and WFF for monitoring. The GPS receiver maintained track except during extremely dynamic maneuvers. The Range User system sent data at three different data rates. There were excellent cooperation and support from the different Centers, contractors, and Ranges. A large amount of data was recorded and extensive post-flight analysis was performed. The Range User TDRSS link margin met or exceeded the predicted performance at three different data rates. The Range Safety launch-head link margins generally agreed with the predicted performance. The UPS positions and velocities agreed with those from tracking radar to within about 20 m and a few rn/s. The link margins for the Range Safety TDRSS telemetry link were less than expected. The link margin for one TDRSS command link LPT channel was occasionally much less than the other. Additional post-flight testing has yet to identify the root causes of these results. There were many lessons learned from this first set of test flights. The most important one is that more time and testing are needed for each step to deal with the inevitable problems. It is vital that these lessons be among the primary areas of study that will carry over from FD#1 to FD#2, which is currently scheduled for early FY05 at DFRC and will use a specially designed Ku-band phased array antenna for the Range User system. The next series of flight demonstrations scheduled for late 2004 at DFRC will incorporate many lessons learned from FD#1. A specially designed Ku-band phased array antenna will be used with the Range User system. A test flight on a hypersonic vehicle is planned by the end of 2006.

Demspm. Erol↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving deep learning performance for predicting large-scale geological ${{CO}_{2}}$ sequestration modeling through feature coarsening

Physics-based reservoir simulation for fluid flow in porous media is a numerical simulation method to predict the temporal-spatial patterns of state variables (e.g. pressure p) in porous media, and usually requires prohibitively high computational expense due to its non-linearity and the large number of degrees of freedom (DoF). This work describes a deep learning (DL) workflow to predict the pressure evolution as fluid flows in large-scale 3-dimensional(3D) heterogeneous porous media. In particular, we develop an efficient feature coarsening technique to extract the most representative information and perform the training and prediction of DL at the coarse scale, and further recover the resolution at the fine scale by spatial interpolation. We validate the DL approach to predict pressure field against physics-based simulation data for a field-scale 3D geologic CO 2 sequestration reservoir model. We evaluate the impact of feature coarsening on DL performance, and observe that the feature coarsening not only decreases the training time by >74% and reduces the memory consumption by >75%, but also maintains temporal error 0.63% on average. Besides, the DL workflow provides predictive efficiency with 1406 times speedup compared to physics-based numerical simulation. The key findings from this research significantly improve the training and prediction efficiency of deep learning model to deal with large-scale heterogeneous reservoir models, and thus it can also be further applied to accelerate workflows of history matching and reservoir optimization for close-loop reservoir management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Surface Management System Departure Event Data Analysis

This paper presents a data analysis of the Surface Management System (SMS) performance of departure events, including push-back and runway departure events.The paper focuses on the detection performance, or the ability to detect departure events, as well as the prediction performance of SMS. The results detail a modest overall detection performance of push-back events and a significantly high overall detection performance of runway departure events. The overall detection performance of SMS for push-back events is approximately 55%.The overall detection performance of SMS for runway departure events nears 100%. This paper also presents the overall SMS prediction performance for runway departure events as well as the timeliness of the Aircraft Situation Display for Industry data source for SMS predictions.

Monroe, Gilena A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning reduces soft costs for residential solar photovoltaics

Further deployment of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) hinges on the reduction of soft (non-hardware) costs—now larger and more resistant to reductions than hardware costs. The largest portion of these soft costs is the expenses solar companies incur to acquire new customers. In this study, we demonstrate the value of a shift from significance-based methodologies to prediction-oriented models to better identify PV adopters and reduce soft costs. We employ machine learning to predict PV adopters and non-adopters, and compare its prediction performance with logistic regression, the dominant significance-based method in technology adoption studies. Our results show that machine learning substantially enhances adoption prediction performance: The true positive rate of predicting adopters increased from 66 to 87%, and the true negative rate of predicting non-adopters increased from 75 to 88%. We attribute the enhanced performance to complex variable interactions and nonlinear effects incorporated by machine learning. With more accurate predictions, machine learning is able to reduce customer acquisition costs by 15% ($0.07/Watt) and identify new market opportunities for solar companies to expand and diversify their customer bases. Our research methods and findings provide broader implications for the adoption of similar clean energy technologies and related policy challenges such as market growth and energy inequality.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning

Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Survey of Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Volume II – Predicting Material Performance from Material Microstructure

This report describes the current state of modeling and simulation techniques for predicting the properties of materials fabricated with advanced manufacturing techniques, given the initial microstructure of the material. The report includes a literature survey and a gap analysis outlining and prioritizing key issues in applying these modeling and simulation techniques to nuclear reactor structural materials. The discussion covers both physics-based and data-driven modeling techniques and includes a broad range of manufacturing techniques and materials that may have future nuclear applications. This report is the second in a two-part series, with the first report covering modeling and simulation methods for predicting the initial, as-manufactured structure of advanced manufacturing materials, given a description of the process. Both reports focus on a set of manufacturing technologies likely to be applied to reactor structural components. Taken together, the two reports provide a complete summary of the current state of processing-structure-properties models for advanced manufacturing as well as a survey of applications to reactor structural materials

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1989

Performance and acoustic prediction of counterrotating propeller configurations

The Davidson (1981) numerical method is used to predict the performance of a counterrotating propeller configuration over a range of different front and back disk rotation speeds with constant-speed propellers; this has yielded such overall performance parameters as integrated thrust, torque, and power, as well as the radial variation of blade torque and thrust. Since the unsteady component of the noise from a counterrotating propeller configuration is minimal in the plane of the propeller disk, this approach is restricted to noise-level predictions for observer locations in this region.

Denner, B. W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Design and Performance of the Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph

Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph, one of two potential architectures, is described. The telescope is designed to make a visible wavelength survey of the habitable zones of at least thirty stars in search of earth-like planets. The preliminary system requirements, optical parameters, mechanical and thermal design, operations scenario and predicted performance is presented. The 6-meter aperture telescope has a monolithic primary mirror, which along with the secondary tower, are being designed to meet the stringent optical tolerances of the planet-finding mission. Performance predictions include dynamic and thermal finite element analysis of the telescope optics and structure, which are used to make predictions of the optical performance of the system.

designs↗
NASA NTRS2026

Predicting Operational Performance of xEMU Boot at Lunar South Pole Temperatures using Thermal Desktop ®

The spacesuit boots that will be used on Artemis lunar south pole surface missions will be exposed to extremely cold temperatures (down to ~50 K). To assess the performance of the government’s Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) lunar boot in these permanently shadowed regions, testing was performed at the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) in the Cryogenic Ice Transfer, Acquisition Development, and Excavation Laboratory (CITADEL) thermal vacuum (TVAC) chamber. This paper documents the data analysis, thermal boot model correlation, and operational predictions conducted using data from the xEMU CITADEL TVAC test. Expected thermal conductances within the boot and between the boot and environment were calculated from test data, which was then used as an initial guess for conductances within a Thermal Desktop (TD) model. Correlation of the TD model using the internal SOLVER feature was performed across 10 different test points which varied external temperature, internal boot ventilation flowrate, and contact pressure. Operational performance at the lunar south pole was then predicted using results from the correlated model. While the predictions provide evidence for acceptable performance of the boots at the 100K environment test point, there is still substantial uncertainty in performance, especially at the 48K test point. This uncertainty is due in part to testing limitations such as contacting the foot to a hard metal plate rather than granular regolith, and model limitations such as the lack of a realistic foot model. These limitations and their impacts are addressed in detail in this paper. The results of this test series and model correlation underscore the importance of additional improved testing and modeling for characterizing the expected thermal resistance between the outside of the boot and the lunar surface.

Spacesuit↗
NASA NTRS2026

Improvement in the Thermal-to-Structural Model Mapping Process for Integrated Modeling for the Roman Space Telescope

Integrated Modeling has been a key component of verifying optical requirements for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (RST) that are either impossible or impractical to verify exclusively through ground testing. Two major areas for integrated Modeling are Jitter and Thermal Distortion that require the exchanges of model performance predictions across disciplines. In both cases, distortions are impressed on optical models to evaluate the impact on boresight alignment and wave front error. In the case of Jitter, the disturbances are driven by reactions to motions most often from actuators; however, in the case of thermal distortion, the motions are driven by thermal expansion or contraction as a result of changing temperatures. This then requires a link further upstream to the thermal model, which is used to predict the thermal performance and temperature gradients and stability. The process for mapping temperatures from a thermal model to a corresponding structural model has been performed numerous times through the RST project lifecycle, with improvements in the accuracy, verification, and effort sought throughout. This paper describes some of the recent improvements to the process, including: capture of the visualization parameters, automatic generation of the mapped images for both the thermal and structural model groupings, and reduction in the effort to assemble the full set of mapped temperatures. These upgrades have greatly reduced the manual effort associated with thermal mapping and allowed for faster turn-around of Integrated Modeling predictions.

Thermal Mapping↗
NASA NTRS1991

Building a generalized distributed system model

A modeling tool for both analysis and design of distributed systems is discussed. Since many research institutions have access to networks of workstations, the researchers decided to build a tool running on top of the workstations to function as a prototype as well as a distributed simulator for a computing system. The effects of system modeling on performance prediction in distributed systems and the effect of static locking and deadlocks on the performance predictions of distributed transactions are also discussed. While the probability of deadlock is considerably small, its effects on performance could be significant.

Mukkamala, Ravi↗
NASA NTRS1987

Predicting the performance of solar illuminated thermal louvers for the GOES I, J, K instruments

The new series of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES I,J,K,L/M) will have two earth viewing optical instruments which use passive, bi-metallic actuated, blade-type louvers for their thermal control. GOES is a three-axis stabilized spacecraft in geostationary orbit, which means that sun can enter the instrument apertures for several hours before and after local midnight. The solar heat absorbed in the instruments causes the louvers to open thus allowing the radiators to reject the heat. These louvered radiators are located on the north face of the instruments. To perform thermal analyses of the instruments, a modeling method was needed for predicting the thermal characteristics of the louvers. This task was complicated by the fact that sun shines on the louvers during the summer season. A Monte Carlo analytical technique was used to develop absorbed power and effective emissivity tables for the louvers. These tables could be used with the instrument math models to predict the thermal behavior of the instruments. Data from the Monte Carlo analysis showed that solar entrapment could have a significant effect on the heat rejection capability of the louvered radiators.

Mengers, David↗
NASA NTRS1995

Low Intensity Low Temperature (LILT) measurements and coefficients on new photovoltaic structures

Past NASA missions to Mars, Jupiter, and the outer planets were powered by radioisotope thermal generators (RTG's). Although these devices proved to be reliable, their high cost and highly toxic radioactive heat source has made them far less desirable for future planetary missions. This has resulted in a renewed search for alternate energy sources, some of them being photovoltaic (PV) and thermophotovoltaic (TPV). Both of these alternate energy sources convert light/thermal energy directly into electricity. In order to create a viable PV and TPV data base for planetary mission planners and cell designers, we have compiled low temperature low intensity (LILT) I-V data on single junction and multi-junction high efficiency solar cells. The cells tested here represent the latest photovoltaic technology. Using this LILT data to calculate dI(sub SC)/dT, dV(sub OC)/dT, dFF/dT, and also as a function of intensity, an accurate prediction of cell performance under the AMO spectrum can be determined. When combined with QUantum efficiency at Low Temperature (QULT) data, one can further enhance the data by adding spectral variations to the measurements. This paper presents an overview of LILT measurements and is only intended to be used as a guideline for material selection and performance predictions. As single junction and multi-junction cell technologies emerge, new test data must be collected. Cell materials included are Si, GaAs/Ge, GainP/GaAs/Ge, InP, InGaAs/InP, InP/InGaAs/InP, and GainP. Temperatures range as low as -175 C and intensities range from 1 sun to .02 suns.

Schelman, David A.↗