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NASA NTRS1991

Large-scale solar and heliospheric magnetic fields

The magnetic structure of the extended solar corona varies with the changing photospheric field during the solar cycle. A simple potential model of the corona using solar surface observations from 1976 to the present shows how the large-scale coronal field evolves over more than a solar activity cycle. These predictions match well with large stable structures inferred from measurements of coronal electron density and the IMF, though dynamic changes are poorly modeled. The sun's polar field was about 25 stronger at solar minimum in 1986 than in 1976; the heliospheric current sheet was also flatter. In Cycle 21 the coronal and photospheric large-scale long-lived field patterns rotated every 26.9 days in the northern hemisphere; the southern field rotated every 28 days. Similar periods have been present in the IMF and in the occurrence of solar flares during the last several solar cycles.

Hoeksema, J. Todd↗
NASA NTRS1993

The tropopause cold trap in the Australian Monsoon during STEP/AMEX 1987

The relationship between deep convection and tropopause cold trap conditions is examined for the tropical northern Australia region during the 1986-87 summer monsoon season, emphasizing the Australia Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) period when the NASA Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) was being conducted. The factors related to the spatial and temporal variability of the cold point potential temperature (CPPT) are investigated. A framework is developed for describing the relationships among surface average equivalent potential temperature in the surface layer (AEPTSL) the height of deep convection, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The time-mean pattern of convection, large-scale circulation, and surface AEPTSL in the Australian monsoon and the evolution of the convective environment during the monsoon period and the extended transition season which preceded it are described. The time-mean fields of cold point level variables are examined and the statistical relationships between mean CPPT, surface AEPTSL, and deep convection are described. Day-to-day variations of CPPT are examined in terms of these time mean relationships.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamics Explorer measurements of particles, fields, and plasma drifts over a horse-collar auroral pattern

As shown from ground-based measurements and satellite-borne imagers, one type of global auroral pattern characteristic of quiet (usually northward IMF) intervals is that of a contracted but thickened emission region of a pattern referred to as 'horse-collar' aurora (Hones et al., 1989). In this report we use the Dynamics Explorer data set to examine a case in which this horse-collar pattern was observed by the DE-1 auroral imager, while at the same time DE-2, at lower altitude, measured precipitating particles, electric and magnetic fields, and plasma drifts. Our analysis shows that, in general, there is close agreement between the optical signatures and the particle precipitation patterns. In many instances, over scales ranging from tens to a few hundred kilometers, electron precipitation features and upward field-aligned currents are observed at locations where the plasma flow gradients indicate negative V-average x E. The particle, plasma, and field measurements made along the satellite track and the 2D perspective of the imager provide a means of determining the configuration of convective flows in the high-latitude ionosphere during this interval of northward IMF. Recent mapping studies are used to relate the low-altitude observations to possible magnetospheric source regions.

Sharber, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A global model of carbon-nutrient interactions

The global biogeochemical model presented has two primary objectives. First, it characterizes natural elemental cycles and their linkages for the four elements significant to Earth's biota: C, N, S, and P. Second, it describes changes in these cycles due to human activity. Global nutrient cycles were studied within the drainage basins of several major world rivers on each continent. The initial study region was the Mississippi drainage basin, concentrating on carbon and nitrogen. The model first establishes the nutrient budgets of the undisturbed ecosystems in a study region. It then uses a data set of land use histories for that region to document the changes in these budgets due to land uses. Nutrient movement was followed over time (1800 to 1980) for 30 ecosystems and 10 land use categories. A geographically referenced ecological information system (GREIS) was developed to manage the digital global data bases of 0.5 x 0.5 grid cells needed to run the model: potential vegetation, drainage basins, precipitation, runoff, contemporary land cover, and FAO soil maps of the world. The results show the contributions of land use categories to river nutrient loads on a continental scale; shifts in nutrient cycling patterns from closed, steady state systems to mobile transient or open, steady state systems; soil organic matter depletion patterns in U.S. agricultural lands; changing nutrient ratios due to land use changes; and the effect of using heavy fertilizer on aquatic systems.

Moore, Berrien, III↗
NASA NTRS1993

Can weak crust explain the correlation of geoid and topography on Venus?

The effect on geoid and topography of low viscosity crust overlying a steady-state convecting mantle is estimated under the assumption that the shear between crust and mantle does not alter the mantle flow. The weak crustal layer can change the sign of the geoid to topography ratio (admittance). The positive long wavelength admittance for Venus is consistent with a weak crust overlying a mantle with a viscosity that increases strongly with depth. The accepted interpretation of the strong positive correlation of geoid and topography on Venus, is that the convecting mantle of Venus has a constant viscosity with depth. Topography results from vertical normal stresses caused by mantle convection and highlands occur where mantle upwells. For topography to be supported by normal stress, the time scale for crustal flow must be long compared to the time scale for changes in the pattern of mantle flow. Because the high surface temperature of Venus may cause the crust to have a low viscosity, this assumption may be false. Topography should then be dominated by shear coupling between the crust and mantle. In the absence of a crustal layer, convection in a constant viscosity layer gives rise to a geoid anomaly that correlates positively with surface topography. When the viscosity in the layer increases with depth by several orders of magnitude, the surface topography and geoid anomaly become anti-correlated.

Buck, W. Roger↗
NASA NTRS1994

Planetary-scale circulations in the presence of climatological and wave-induced heating

Interaction between the large-scale circulation and the convective pattern is investigated in a coupled system governed by the linearized primitive equations. Convection is represented in terms of two components of heating: A 'climatological component' is prescribed stochastically to represent convection that is maintained by fixed distributions of land and sea and sea surface temperature (SST). An 'induced component' is defined in terms of the column-integrated moisture flux convergence to represent convection that is produced through feedback with the circulation. Each component describes the envelope organizing mesoscale convective activity. As SST on the equator is increased, induced heating amplifies in the gravest zonal wavenumbers at eastward frequencies, where positive feedback offsets dissipation. Under barotropic stratification, a critical SST of 29.5 C results in positive feedback exactly cancelling dissipation in wavenumber 1 for an eastward phase speed of 6 m/s. Sympathetic interaction between the circulation and the induced heating is the basis for 'frictional wave-Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK)', which is distinguished from classical wave-CISK by rendering the gravest zonal dimensions most unstable. Under baroclinic stratification, the coupled system exhibits similar behavior. The critical SST is only 26.5 C for conditions representative of equinox, but in excess of 30 C for conditions representative of solstice. Having the form of an unsteady Walker circulation, the disturbance produced by frictional wave-CISK compares favorably with the observed life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). SST above the critical value produces an amplifying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric westerlies and is positively correlated with temperature and surface convergence. Conversely, SST below the critical value produces a decaying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric easterlies and is nearly in quadrature with temperature and surface convergence. While sharing essential features with the MJO in the Eastern Hemisphere, frictional wave-CISK does not explain observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere, where the convective signal is largely absent. Comprised of Kelvin structure with the same frequency, observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere can be understood as a propagating response that is excited in and radiates away from the fluctuation of convection in the Eastern Hemisphere.

Salby, Murry L↗
NASA NTRS1993

A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992

From satellite observations the solar total irradiance is known to vary. Sunspot blocking, facular emission, and network emission are three identified causes for the variations. In this paper we examine several different solar indices measured over the past century that are potential proxy measures for the Sun's irradiance. These indices are (1) the equatorial solar rotation rate, (2) the sunspot structure, the decay rate of individual sunspots, and the number of sunspots without umbrae, and (3) the length and decay rate of the sunspot cycle. Each index can be used to develop a model for the Sun's total irradiance as seen at the Earth. Three solar indices allow the irradiance to be modeled back to the mid-1700s. The indices are (1) the length of the solar cycle, (2) the normalized decay rate of the solar cycle, and (3) the mean level of solar activity. All the indices are well correlated, and one possible explanation for their nearly simultaneous variations is changes in the Sun's convective energy transport. Although changes in the Sun's convective energy transport are outside the realm of normal stellar structure theory (e.g., mixing length theory), one can imagine variations arising from even the simplest view of sunspots as vertical tubes of magnetic flux, which would serve as rigid pillas affecting the energy flow patterns by ensuring larger-scale eddies. A composite solar irradiance model, based upon these proxies, is compared to the northern hemisphere temperature depatures for 1700-1992. Approximately 71% of the decadal variance in the last century can be modeled with these solar indices, although this analysis does not include anthropogenic or other variations which would affect the results. Over the entire three centuries, approx. 50% of the variance is modeled. Both this analysis and previous similar analyses have correlations of model solar irradiances and measured Earth surface temperatures that are significant at better than the 95% confidence level. To understand our present climate variations, we must place the anthropogenic variations in the context of natural variability from solar, volcanic, oceanic, and other sources.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Simulation Atlas of Tidal Features in Galaxies

Detailed simulations of tidally induced structure in disk galaxies have either concentrated on specific systems or consisted of a few encounters with relatively small numbers of particles and no self-gravity. Observers need a 'dictionary' of simulations that covers many encounter parameters with fine morphological resolution and includes effects of self-gravitation. Observers can then search the dictionary for the parameters that best match a particular observed morphology. Alternatively, the dictionary can be used with observational samples for statistical studies of system parameters. To fill this need, we present a survey of model tidal encounters using a self-gravitating, 180,000 particle, two-component ('stars' and 'gas') disk. A wide variety of fascinating morphologies results. There are 86 different encounters that vary orbit tilt, perigalacticon distance, galaxy to companion mass ratio, and the amount of halo dark matter relative to the disk. For morphological comparisons, over 1700 images of the entire survey are available in video form. While there is a rich variety of tidal structure covering much of this parameter space, some general patterns may be remarked. There is a strong orbital inclination dependence of the symmetry of tidal patterns, most symmetric for planar orbits and nearly one-sided for polar encounters. Retrograde encounters produce only broad fanlike global patterns, but rich small-scale internal structure. In both kinds of encounter, our numerical resolution allows us to track internal spiral structure driven by the outer material arms, especially in the lighter halo simulations. We note also that polar encounters generate series of expanding, essentially non-rotating loops resembling shell structures in some respects.

Howard, Sethanne↗
NASA NTRS2002

Spatial Metadata for Global Change Investigations Using Remote Sensing

Satellite and aircraft-borne remote sensors have gathered petabytes of data over the past 30+ years. These images are an important resource for establishing cause and effect relationships between human-induced land cover changes and alterations in climate and other biophysical patterns at local to global scales. However, the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics of these datasets vary, thus complicating long-term studies involving several types of imagery. As the geographical and temporal coverage, the spectral and spatial resolution, and the number of individual sensors increase, the sheer volume and complexity of available data sets will complicate management and use of the rapidly growing archive of earth imagery. Mining this vast data resource for images that provide the necessary information for climate change studies becomes more difficult as more sensors are launched and more imagery is obtained.

Emerson, Charles W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Asian Summer Monsoon Anomalies Induced by Aerosol Direct Forcing: The Role of the Tibetan Plateau

In this paper we present results of a numerical study using the NASA finite-volume GCM to elucidate a plausible mechanism for aerosol impact on the Asian summer monsoon involving interaction with physical processes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the premonsoon season of March April, dusts from the deserts of western China, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the Middle East are transported into and stacked up against the northern and southern slopes of the TP. The absorption of solar radiation by dust heats up the elevated surface air over the slopes. On the southern slopes, the atmospheric heating is reinforced by black carbon from local emission. The heated air rises via dry convection, creating a positive temperature anomaly in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the TP relative to the region to the south. In May through early June in a manner akin to an elevated heat pump , the rising hot air forced by the increasing heating in the upper troposphere, draws in warm and moist air over the Indian subcontinent, setting the stage for the onset of the South Asia summer monsoon. Our results suggest that increased dust loading coupled with black carbon emission from local sources in northern India during late spring may lead to an advance of the rainy periods and subsequently an intensification of the Indian summer monsoon. The enhanced rainfall over India is associated with the development of an aerosol-induced large-scale sea level pressure anomaly pattern, which causes the East Asia (Mei-yu) rain belt to shift northwestward, suppressing rainfall over East Asia and the adjacent oceanic regions.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Compact Focal Plane Assembly for Planetary Science

A compact radiometric focal plane assembly (FPA) has been designed in which the filters are individually co-registered over compact thermopile pixels. This allows for construction of an ultralightweight and compact radiometric instrument. The FPA also incorporates micromachined baffles in order to mitigate crosstalk and low-pass filter windows in order to eliminate high-frequency radiation. Compact metal mesh bandpass filters were fabricated for the far infrared (FIR) spectral range (17 to 100 microns), a game-changing technology for future planetary FIR instruments. This fabrication approach allows the dimensions of individual metal mesh filters to be tailored with better than 10- micron precision. In contrast, conventional compact filters employed in recent missions and in near-term instruments consist of large filter sheets manually cut into much smaller pieces, which is a much less precise and much more labor-intensive, expensive, and difficult process. Filter performance was validated by integrating them with thermopile arrays. Demonstration of the FPA will require the integration of two technologies. The first technology is compact, lightweight, robust against cryogenic thermal cycling, and radiation-hard micromachined bandpass filters. They consist of a copper mesh supported on a deep reactive ion-etched silicon frame. This design architecture is advantageous when constructing a lightweight and compact instrument because (1) the frame acts like a jig and facilitates filter integration with the FPA, (2) the frame can be designed so as to maximize the FPA field of view, (3) the frame can be simultaneously used as a baffle for mitigating crosstalk, and (4) micron-scale alignment features can be patterned so as to permit high-precision filter stacking and, consequently, increase the filter bandwidth and sharpen the out-of-band rolloff. The second technology consists of leveraging, from another project, compact and lightweight Bi0.87Sb0.13/Sb arrayed thermopiles. These detectors consist of 30-layer thermopiles deposited in series upon a silicon nitride membrane. At 300 K, the thermopile arrays are highly linear over many orders of magnitude of incident IR power, and have a reported specific detectivity that exceeds the requirements imposed on future mission concepts. The bandpass filter array board is integrated with a thermopile array board by mounting both boards on a machined aluminum jig.

Brown, Ari↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Parameter Estimation Scheme for Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) Algorithm Used in Precipitation Data Fusion

A new approach is presented in this paper to effectively obtain parameter estimations for the Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) algorithm. This new approach has demonstrated promising potentials in deriving better data products based on data of different spatial scales and precisions. Our new approach employs a multi-objective (MO) parameter estimation scheme (called MO scheme hereafter), rather than using the conventional maximum likelihood scheme (called ML scheme) to estimate the MKS parameters. Unlike the ML scheme, the MO scheme is not simply built on strict statistical assumptions related to prediction errors and observation errors, rather, it directly associates the fused data of multiple scales with multiple objective functions in searching best parameter estimations for MKS through optimization. In the MO scheme, objective functions are defined to facilitate consistency among the fused data at multiscales and the input data at their original scales in terms of spatial patterns and magnitudes. The new approach is evaluated through a Monte Carlo experiment and a series of comparison analyses using synthetic precipitation data. Our results show that the MKS fused precipitation performs better using the MO scheme than that using the ML scheme. Particularly, improvements are significant compared to that using the ML scheme for the fused precipitation associated with fine spatial resolutions. This is mainly due to having more criteria and constraints involved in the MO scheme than those included in the ML scheme. The weakness of the original ML scheme that blindly puts more weights onto the data associated with finer resolutions is overcome in our new approach.

multiscale↗
NASA NTRS2016

How Much Global Burned Area Can Be Forecast on Seasonal Time Scales Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns influence the interannual variability of burned area in many regions by means of climate controls on fuel continuity, amount, and moisture content. Some of the variability in burned area is predictable on seasonal timescales because fuel characteristics respond to the cumulative effects of climate prior to the onset of the fire season. Here we systematically evaluated the degree to which annual burned area from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) can be predicted using SSTs from 14 different ocean regions. We found that about 48 of global burned area can be forecast with a correlation coefficient that is significant at a p < 0.01 level using a single ocean climate index (OCI) 3 or more months prior to the month of peak burning. Continental regions where burned area had a higher degree of predictability included equatorial Asia, where 92% of the burned area exceeded the correlation threshold, and Central America, where 86% of the burned area exceeded this threshold. Pacific Ocean indices describing the El Nino-Southern Oscillation were more important than indices from other ocean basins, accounting for about 1/3 of the total predictable global burned area. A model that combined two indices from different oceans considerably improved model performance, suggesting that fires in many regions respond to forcing from more than one ocean basin. Using OCI-burned area relationships and a clustering algorithm, we identified 12 hotspot regions in which fires had a consistent response to SST patterns. Annual burned area in these regions can be predicted with moderate confidence levels, suggesting operational forecasts may be possible with the aim of improving ecosystem management.

Chen, Yang↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Stratospheric Warming of 2018 in Context of the Earth System

The major stratospheric sudden warming in February 2018 occurred in unison with changes throughout the troposphere in the northern hemisphere. Changes in large-scale dynamics and regional weather patterns are described in this study, along with features in major features of the Earth system, such as sea ice. The focus is on analyses using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) analyses, weather prediction, and seasonal forecasts. Specific topics to discuss include: - The morphology of the sudden warming, including planetary waves in the troposphere and stratosphere.- Relationships with weather over North America. - Warming over the Arctic and anomalous sea-ice distributions. - Predictability on the one-to-four week timescales. The predictions will be based on routine products generated using the GEOS systems, as well as targeted experiments that focus on the roles of different mechanisms (such as ice-atmosphere interactions).

planetary waves↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El Niño needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of Sustainability Development in Urban Areas of Morocco

In Morocco, the last census counted 70% of houses in cities, with seven cities accounting for 25% of the total population and 41% of the urban population. This paper questioned the sustainability indicator in Moroccan cities using a novel methodology based on Earth observations and census data. We estimated the indicator for the 25 largest urban areas between 2003 and 2013. A stratification based on urbanization fractions allowed for the definition and comparison of hierarchically ordered zones consistent across urban areas and scales. We found no systematic pattern of growth between cities. However, three categories of development were identified: a group of large cities with an indicator less than unity and land consumption commensurate to population growth, a group of medium-sized cities trending moderately towards unsustainability with an indicator between one and two, and a group including small cities with significant departure from sustainability. The disparate sustainability levels between urban areas appear to be related to the rapid economic growth, typical of an emerging economy. Our results indicate a continuous population growth pushing outwards the perimeters of existing urban areas. Unless regulated, land consumption is increasing faster than the population in most parts of Morocco, in line with global trends.

Lahouari Bounoua↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing the Subjectivity of Hole-Type Image Quality Indicators for Radiography

Hole-type penetrameters used as image quality indicators (IQIs) for radiography have an inherent degree of subjectivity to their interpretation. The 1T (one times the thickness of the penetrameter) hole is so small, it can be difficult to distinguish from noise. It is suspected that an operator’s knowledge of the true location of the 1T hole may subconsciously influence a false positive identification of the 1T hole when in fact it cannot be discerned. In the case of computed radiography (CR), the size of the phosphor particles may lead to a noise pattern with features on the scale of the 1T hole. Per NASA-STD-5009, the 1T hole must be detected in order to achieve adequate sensitivity. This is based on the historical understanding that this sensitivity will enable detection of the minimum detectable flaw sizes listed in the standard. It’s important to understand if 1T sensitivity is being achieved, and the associated risk if not. This study sought to determine the true detectability of 1T-sized holes in aluminum and Inconel by creating and inspecting a set of penetrameters with randomly placed holes. Enough holes and vacant zones were created to enable a full probability of detection study with 90% detectability, 95% confidence. Testing is ongoing, but preliminary results have shown poor detectability. The detection rate is slightly better for Inconel than aluminum, slightly better using a micro-focus vs. mini-focus tube, and definitively better for film than CR. One of the key questions of this study is whether historical requirements for film are applicable for CR, and these initial findings suggest they may not be. There is also a requirement in the NASA standard for the minimum contrast-to-noise ratio of the hole. The results have shown that this numerical threshold does not correlate well with visual detection. This raises questions about the true nature of detection, in an age of image processing vs. human judgement. As the results indicate that the detection of 1T holes is unreliable, the next challenge will be determining what sensitivity is really achieved, and what is needed.

Erin Lanigan↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Mangrove Canopy Regrowth and Recovery After Hurricane Irma With Large-Scale Repeat Airborne Lidar in the Florida Everglades

Hurricane Irma caused significant damages to mangrove forested wetlands in south Florida, including defoliation, tree snapping, and uprooting. Previous studies have used optical satellite imagery to estimate large-scale forest disturbance and resilience patterns. However, satellite images alone cannot provide measurements of vertical mangrove structure. In this study, we used dense point cloud data collected by NASA Goddard’s LiDAR, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) airborne imager before (March 2017) and after (December 2017 and March 2020) Hurricane Irma to quantify the recovery, or lack thereof, of the three-dimensional (3D) mangrove forest structure. Recent resilience and vulnerability models developed from Landsat time series following the storm were used to group the lidar data into distinct disturbance-recovery classes. We then analyzed lidar-based forest canopy within each of the recovery classes to test a suite of forest structural characteristics. Our results indicate that 77.0 % of the survey area experienced canopy height loss three months after Hurricane Irma, whereby the majority of canopy height loss occurred in areas with the tallest mangrove forests (i.e., 15–25 m tall). Our analysis shows that the mangrove canopy height in South Florida increased by an average 0.26 m from December 2017 to March 2020, with most of the forest (84.7 % of the survey area) experiencing canopy height regrowth. However, only 38.1 % of the survey area has recovered to pre-storm canopy height. The distribution of canopy height was significantly altered by Hurricane Irma in the low and intermediate resilience classes, but were not significantly different 2.5 years later. Indeed, in areas of low resilience, little to no vertical change has occurred suggesting the absence of canopy regrowth and natural regeneration. Conversely, mangroves in high resilience class, which are dominated by shorter canopies (<5 m), were not heavily damaged by the storm and have maintained the same structural attributes as those before Hurricane Irma. Our findings highlight that hurricane disturbances significantly alter mangrove forest canopy structure, but recovery of vertical structure varies by resilience classes, species composition, and canopy height.

Lidar↗