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At least 379 records · Page 21

A comparison between residential relocation timing of Sydney and Chicago residents: A Bayesian survival analysis

We report that understanding households' behaviour in residential relocation timing is of great importance in the field of transport engineering and economics. This research aims to develop a residential relocation model by considering the potential dynamic impacts of other households' decisions and variables, including economic and demographic attributes, housing features, intra-household decision-making structures, travel mode choice, and other life-course attributes. A multivariate parametric survival model with both fixed and time-varying covariates is developed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first paper in the literature of residential relocation timing to propose the use of a Bayesian model in contrast to the widely used classic frequentist approach and have conducted a discussion on its advantages. An emerging residential relocation dataset collected for two cities in Australia and the USA (Sydney and Chicago cities) has been used, which covers residence, vehicle ownership, occupation, education, economic and demographic attributes of respondents. A comprehensive comparison between the results of two cities and a comparison between two Bayesian and frequentist approaches are made. This study confirms the impact of life-course variables, intra-household decision-making behaviours, and sociodemographic attributes on home mobility. According to the model outputs, the accelerating or decelerating impact of explanatory variables on the relocation timing has been almost the same in the two cities. The Bayesian model was confirmed to have some advantages over the frequentist model, including being straightforward to interpret, availability of making inferences on the results, and ease of handling complex models, and optimisation convergence complexities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Modeling the contributions to acoustic nonlinearity from complex dislocation networks using 3D dislocation dynamics

Nonlinear ultrasonic parameters are highly sensitive to microstructural features that affect macroscale material behavior, providing a nondestructive means to characterize their evolution. Although dislocations are known to be a strong source of acoustic nonlinearity, establishing quantitative links between the acoustic nonlinearity parameter (β), measured via Second Harmonic Generation, and dislocation morphology—such as dislocation length and density—remains an open challenge. This work advances the numerical modeling of dislocation–β relationships using 3D dislocation dynamics (DD) simulations in two approaches: a “static” method computing strain and stress fields from dislocation configurations in the absence of external loading, and a “quasi-static” method to estimate β from the curvature of dislocation lines under applied load. First, the static method is combined with finite element analysis to investigate a recent assertion that heterogeneous initial strain fields can induce higher harmonic generation in a linear elastic medium; the present results do not corroborate this outcome. Then, the quasi-static method is applied to multiple-dislocation scenarios through parametric studies, revealing behaviors not predicted by analytical models, such as the competing interactions of edge and screw dislocations and the significant influence of applied stress on β. Finally, the simulations are used to model SHG experimental results and validate the hypothesis that β can decrease during plastic deformation, despite increasing dislocation density. As the DD code used here is open-source, it provides a practical platform for future investigation into microstructure–β relationships important to the interpretation of SHG results.

Materials science↗

Fabrication, Measurement, and Modeling of GaInP/GaAs Three-Terminal Cells and Strings

Three-terminal (3T) GaInP/GaAs solar cells are fabricated from inverted-grown monolithic tandems and processed with external metal contacts suitable for easy interconnection. Prototype 3T tandems both with and without tunnel junctions are demonstrated. They are characterized as a function of two independent variables in a variety of configurations, with each configuration holding one of the contacts common to two source-meter units (SMUs). Each of these different measurement configurations completely characterizes the device by transforming the results into 6 unique device parameters and plotting the total power parametrically in two dimensions. The performance is fit using a 3T optoelectronic model that includes luminescent coupling as well as important resistances. Eight of these devices are interconnected in various voltage-constrained configurations to form voltage-matched (VM) strings. Measurement and analysis of these III-V devices and strings are generally applicable to all 3T photovoltaics.

photovoltaics↗

Sensitivity analysis of design parameters in RowWise borehole layout for ground heat exchangers

Ground source heat pump systems offer a promising pathway toward energy-efficient building heating and cooling. The performance and cost-effectiveness of these systems heavily depend on the design of the ground heat exchanger (GHE), particularly the spatial placement of boreholes used in large commercial buildings. Among various borefield layout strategies, the RowWise approach generates and optimizes borehole configurations within irregular polygonal land boundaries, providing land-use efficiency and installation flexibility. While multiple geometric design parameters constrain the RowWise layout, their influence on the system thermal performance and total drilling requirements remains unclear. Thus, this study presents a sensitivity analysis of key design parameters influencing the RowWise layout of vertical borehole GHEs, including the perimeter spacing ratio, borehole spacing, borehole field rotation angle, and borehole length. GHEDesigner and Ray Tune are employed to generate and assess different RowWise configurations. A series of parametric simulations was conducted to quantify the impact of each parameter on geometric distribution, economic cost, and computational speed. The results provide critical insights into the sensitivity and relative importance of different design parameters of RowWise method, offering practical guidance for designers aiming to optimize GHE layouts by balancing thermal efficiency, land constraints, and economic feasibility.

Xu, Dikai [Purdue University]↗

Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel

A recent study claims that corn used for ethanol should not be considered to be inherently biogenically carbon-neutral because not all that corn was grown additional to the level otherwise. By assessing the extent of carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol using the reference point baseline approach and historical data that study concluded that the carbon intensity of US corn ethanol is 27% higher than that of gasoline. We develop a framework to determine the carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol by assessing the additional carbon uptake by crops using an anticipated baseline approach. We also apply this framework to determine the additional corn produced for ethanol and include the direct life cycle carbon emissions of only that portion of corn in the direct life cycle carbon intensity of corn ethanol. We implement this framework by integrating an economic model of the agricultural sector in the USA with a biogenic carbon model and life cycle analysis to quantify biogenic carbon uptake and direct life cycle emissions with and without corn ethanol expansion over the 2007–2027 period. We find that the combined biogenic carbon emissions and direct life cycle carbon emission intensity of corn ethanol (not including indirect land use related emissions) is 21% lower than gasoline. In conclusion, the lower value of this carbon intensity of corn ethanol compared with gasoline is robust to a wide range of parametric assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Neuroanatomical and cognitive correlates of visual hallucinations in Parkinson’s disease and dementia with Lewy bodies: Voxel-based morphometry and neuropsychological meta-analysis

Visual hallucinations (VH) are common in Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies, two forms of Lewy body disease (LBD), but the neural substrates and mechanisms involved are still unclear. We conducted meta-analyses of voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and neuropsychological studies investigating the neuroanatomical and cognitive correlates of VH in LBD. For VBM (12 studies), we used Seed-based d Mapping with Permutation of Subject Images (SDM-PSI), including statistical parametric maps for 50% of the studies. For neuropsychology (35 studies), we used MetaNSUE to consider non-statistically significant unreported effects. VH were associated with smaller grey matter volume in occipital, frontal, occipitotemporal, and parietal areas (peak Hedges' g -0.34 to -0.49). In patients with Parkinson's disease without dementia, VH were associated with lower verbal immediate memory performance (Hedges' g -0.52). Both results survived correction for multiple comparisons. Here, abnormalities in these brain regions might reflect dysfunctions in brain networks sustaining visuoperceptive, attention, and executive abilities, with the latter also being at the basis of poor immediate memory performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Parametrizing the detector response with neural networks

In high energy physics, characterizing the response of a detector to radiation is one of the most important and fundamental experimental tasks. In many cases, this task is accomplished by parameterizing summary statistics of the full detector response probability density. The parameterized detector response can then be used for calibration as well as for directly improving physics analysis sensitivity. This paper reports on how to parameterize summary statistics of the detector response using neural networks. Specifically, neural networks are powerful tools for incorporating multidimensional data and the loss function used during training determines which summary statistic is learned. One common summary statistic that has not been combined with deep learning (as far as the authors are aware) is the mode. A neural network-based approach to mode learning is proposed and empirically demonstrated in the context of high energy jet calibrations. Altogether, the neural network-based toolkit for detector response parameterization can enhance the utility of data collected at high energy physics experiments and beyond.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Bandwidth extension and conversion efficiency improvements beyond phase matching limitations using cavity-enhanced OPCPA

The conversion efficiency and phase matching bandwidth of ultrafast optical parametric amplification (OPA) are constrained by the dispersion and nonlinear coefficient of the employed crystal as well as pulse shaping effects. In our work we show that an enhancement cavity resonant with the pump seeded at the full repetition rate of the pump laser can automatically reshape the small-signal gain in optical parametric chirped-pulse amplification (OPCPA) to achieve close-to-optimal operation. This new method termed cavity-enhanced OPCPA or C-OPCPA significantly increases both the gain bandwidth and the conversion efficiency, in addition to boosting gain for high-repetition-rate amplification. The goal in C-OPCPA is to arrive at a condition of impedance matching at all temporal coordinates, such that, in the absence of linear losses, all the incident pump power is dissipated in the nonlinear loss element, i.e., converted to signal and idler. The use of a low finesse enhancement cavity resonant with a low average power (<1W) and a high repetition rate (78MHz) pump source is shown to achieve more than 50% conversion efficiency into signal and idler from the coupled pump in an optical parametric process, whereas an equivalent amount of pump power in a single-pass configuration leads to negligible conversion. Additionally, the gain bandwidth is extended by a factor of 3-4 beyond the phase-matching limit. Our empirical observations are corroborated by a numerical analysis of depletion optimizing the single-pass case, which assesses the underlying impedance matching that is responsible for the observed performance improvements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Thermal performance of an absorption-assisted two-stage ejector air-to-water heat pump

In this work, a gas-fired air-to-water ejector heat pump (EHP) for domestic hot water production is proposed and analyzed thermodynamically. The COP of the EHP is improved by using binary fluids (HFE7500 and water), and the high backpressure in the primary ejector (first-stage) is actively controlled by either a second-stage ejector and/or a LiBr-H 2 O absorption subsystem. A thermodynamic model is established for analysis and performance evaluation. A case study shows the backpressure of the first-stage ejector is reduced by 53.5%, and the backpressure control using the second-stage ejector increases the system COP by 21.0% compared with that using LiBr-H 2 O absorption. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate the roles of the first-stage ejector, the second-stage ejector, and the LiBr-H 2 O absorption subsystem. The first-stage ejector plays a dominant role in the EHP system performance. The EHP’s heating COP can reach 2.0 with an entrainment ratio of 0.12 in the first-stage ejector. EHP performance can be improved with a high entrainment ratio and a low-temperature primary working fluid in the first-stage and second-stage ejectors, a low condensation temperature in the first-stage ejector, and a high generating temperature and a low concentration of the LiBr-H 2 O solution.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Numerical Investigation of the characteristics of pressurized biomass-oxy-combustion

As a second generation of oxy-fuel combustion technologies, pressurized oxy-combustion has a potential to improve the process efficiency and economy. With the modern decarbonization needs, biomass combustion is considered to be nearly CO2 neutral, and thus co-firing biomass with coal in an oxy-combustion process can achieve a negative CO2 balance. The size of the biomass fuel particles is a key parameter in an entrained flow combustor because large biomass particles, exceeding some threshold size, may only partially be burnt due to the restrictions on the heat transport, thereby diminishing the combustion efficiency. While such a threshold particle size has been scrutinized at an atmospheric pressure, the present study extends the analysis to elevated pressures. Specifically, two scenarios were set up, for experimental-scale and full-scale pressurized oxy-combustors, with the threshold sizes of biomass particles appearing 0.5 mm and 5 mm, respectively, without temperature gradient in biomass particles. With temperature gradient, the parametric study included the particles in the range from 0.15 mm to 5 mm. It is shown that the thermal-thin model is applicable to spherical biomass particles not exceeding 0.15 mm. The impact of the heating rate on biomass particle devolatilization was also investigated and the biomass devolatilization could happen in less than 1 second; the same amount of heat energy could induce different volatile release rates.

Li, Lei↗

Dynamical Mass Estimates of the β Pictoris Planetary System through Gaussian Process Stellar Activity Modeling

Nearly 15 yr of radial velocity (RV) monitoring and direct imaging enabled the detection of two giant planets orbiting the young, nearby star β Pictoris. The δ Scuti pulsations of the star, which overwhelm planetary signals, need to be carefully suppressed. In this work, we independently revisit the analysis of the RV data following a different approach than available in the literature to model the activity of the star. We show that a Gaussian process (GP) with a stochastically driven damped harmonic oscillator kernel can model the δ Scuti pulsations. It provides similar results to parametric models but with a simpler framework, using only three hyperparameters. It also enables us to model poorly sampled RV data that were excluded from previous analyses, hence extending the RV baseline by nearly five years. Altogether, the orbit and mass of both planets can be constrained from RV only, which was not possible with the parametric modeling. To characterize the system more accurately, we also perform a joint fit of all available relative astrometry and RV data. Our orbital solutions for β Pic b favor a low eccentricity of 0.029$_{−0.024}^{+0.061}$ and a relatively short period of 21.1$_{−0.8}^{+2.0}$ yr. The orbit of β Pic c is eccentric with 0.206$_{−0.063}^{+0.074}$ with a period of 3.36 ± 0.03 yr. We find model-independent masses of 11.7 ± 1.4 and 8.5 ± 0.5 M Jup for β Pic b and c, respectively, assuming coplanarity. The mass of β Pic b is consistent with the hottest start evolutionary models, at an age of 25 ± 3 Myr. A direct detection of β Pic c would provide a second calibration measurement in a coeval system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Determining Stability Margins in Adiabatic Superconducting Magnets with 3-D Finite Element Analysis

Superconducting magnets play a key role in the development of experiments at Fermilab; understanding the operating stability of these can allow us to utilize more potent magnets for future experiments (like the proposed Muon Collider), optimize the design of magnets in more immediate experiments (like Mu2e), and research the future use of more exotic materials (like high-temperature superconductors). This summer, I developed a 3-D parametric FEA program in ANSYS Mechanical APDL that simulates quench in superconducting magnets, and I also developed a parametric MATLAB program that predicts thermal behavior in magnet quench using the MIITS method. These programs can provide useful quenching parameters (like minimum quench energy and normal zone propagation velocity) for different cases of quench, leading to the previously mentioned objective of magnet design optimization. To test the programs, preliminary cases were run and the data produced was compared and analyzed. The results of these analyses, as well as the program operating methods, are discussed in this project.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Model-Based Energy and Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture Using ePTFE-Based Laminate-Structured Gas–Solid Contactors

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies will play a significant role in limiting global warming if implemented on a large scale. Direct air capture (DAC) is a scalable approach for removing atmospheric carbon, yet the true scope of its scalability remains unclear due to the early stage of technology development and high first plant costs. This study provides groundwork for understanding the technoeconomic trade-offs in developing DAC systems using laminate-structured gas–solid contactors, encompassing the analysis of both contactor and process design spaces. The robust mass transfer and process models outlined in this study provide tools for evaluating DAC processes and designing DAC plants based on cost and energy analysis. First, the key contactor geometrical parameters are identified to understand the CO 2 productivity–energy demand trade-offs, where geometries yielding higher mass transfer rates can achieve higher CO 2 productivities at the expense of energy consumption by fans and steam use. Next, a detailed process parametric study is conducted for DAC systems coupled with steam-assisted temperature-vacuum swing adsorption (S-TVSA) to visualize the trade-offs in the multidimensional design space. The main cost driver dramatically changes over different process conditions, but the operating cost prevailed on the Pareto front, with potential to operate as low as 150 $/tonne-CO 2 (within the cost range of 148–504 $/tonne-CO 2 in this study where the DAC system is coupled with industrial facilities for steam production).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An integrated manifold learning approach for high-dimensional data feature extractions and its applications to online process monitoring of additive manufacturing

As an effective dimension reduction and feature extraction technique, manifold learning has been successfully applied to high-dimensional data analysis. With the rapid development of sensor technology, a large amount of high-dimensional data such as image streams can be easily available. Thus, a promising application of manifold learning is in the field of sensor signal analysis, particular for the applications of online process monitoring and control using high-dimensional data. The objective of this study is to develop a manifold learning-based feature extraction method for process monitoring of Additive Manufacturing (AM) using online sensor data. Due to the non-parametric nature of most existing manifold learning methods, their performance in terms of computational efficiency, as well as noise resistance has yet to be improved. To address this issue, this study proposes an integrated manifold learning approach termed multi-kernel metric learning embedded isometric feature mapping (MKML-ISOMAP) for dimension reduction and feature extraction of online high-dimensional sensor data such as images. Based on the extracted features with the utilization of supervised classification and regression methods, an online process monitoring methodology for AM is implemented to identify the actual process quality status. Finally, in the numerical simulation and real-world case studies, the proposed method demonstrates excellent performance in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Parametric, Data-Driven, Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order Model Framework for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Voids

The influence of the internal structure at micrometer length scales on the deformation of polycrystalline materials can be effectively captured using crystal plasticity finite element methods (CPFEM). However, the complexity and nonlinearity of the deformation equations CPFEM solves demand significant computational power and resources to achieve accurate predictions, limiting its broader application. To address this challenge, we have identified a reduced-order representation of the complex data in order to establish a computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) and drastically reduce the computational expense of CPFEM. Specifically, in this work, we developed a parametric, data-driven, and non-intrusive ROM framework for CPFEM using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and sparse variational Gaussian process (SVGP) regression for single-crystal microstructures under tensile loading conditions. The developed protocol enables one to compress field into a latent/low-dimensional space described by principal component analysis (PCA) via the singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm. As a result, the high-dimensional data are reduced to a significantly smaller amount of dimensions with POD bases and POD coefficients. Furthermore, we deployed an ensemble of SVGPs—extended from the classical Gaussian process (GP) regression for scalability and handling big data—in a massively parallel manner to train and predict latent POD coefficients using known POD bases from a set of previously obtained simulations results. Lastly, using the predicted POD coefficients, we reconstructed the full-field results and showed reasonable agreement compared with the true values obtained from running CPFEM. The developed framework is validated with a set of CPFEM simulations of a single embedded void in single-crystal aluminum alloy. While the framework is broadly applicable, this work specifically focuses on single-crystal microstructures, a single load case (e.g., tensile), and a specific void geometry (spherical).

Anisotropy↗

DESI 2024: reconstructing dark energy using crossing statistics with DESI DR1 BAO data

Here, we implement Crossing Statistics to reconstruct in a model-agnostic manner the expansion history of the universe and properties of dark energy, using DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) BAO data in combination with one of three different supernova compilations (PantheonPlus, Union3, and DES-SN5YR) and Planck CMB observations. Our results hint towards an evolving and emergent dark energy behaviour, with negligible presence of dark energy at z ≳ 1, at varying significance depending on data sets combined. In all these reconstructions, the cosmological constant lies outside the 95% confidence intervals for some redshift ranges. This dark energy behaviour, reconstructed using Crossing Statistics, is in agreement with results from the conventional w 0 –w a dark energy equation of state parametrization reported in the DESI Key cosmology paper. Our results add an extensive class of model-agnostic reconstructions with acceptable fits to the data, including models where cosmic acceleration slows down at low redshifts. We also report constraints on H 0 r d from our model-agnostic analysis, independent of the pre-recombination physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mechanical Loads on Spent Nuclear Fuel in the General 30 cm Package Drop Scenario

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) research program is guided by the high-level goal of closing prioritized knowledge gaps related to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage and transportation, which are summarized by Saltzstein et al. (2020). One of the high-priority knowledge gaps is the identification and quantification of mechanical loads that are expected to affect SNF during normal conditions of transportation and storage to inform the range of physical SNF test programs. This report uses modeling and analysis methods to estimate the mechanical loads on spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the general 30 cm package drop scenario. The drop scenario assumes impact limiters are in place in the transportation configuration and the impact surface is perfectly rigid. The goal of this analysis is to consider the universe of potential mechanical loading conditions that can happen to SNF and present the results in a manner that is useful for materials testing, decision making, and regulatory rule making purposes. This study uses validated finite element models and methods to perform a broad parametric study of key variables that can affect the mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical package free drop scenario. Physical drop test data from a cask and fuel assembly drop test campaign is the basis for model validation. Additionally, the results of the parametric study are used to inform a damage model, which uses multiple nonlinear regression to estimate the relationships between input variables and output response. The parametric finite element analyses consider thousands of input variable combinations, while the damage model estimates millions of combinations. The breadth of this study provides confidence that the potential range of mechanical loads that SNF might experience during the general 30 cm package drop scenario are characterized well enough to consider this knowledge gap closed. While this report documents the overall peak values calculated in this study, the 95 th percentile values, the histograms, and the observed trends are equally important. This study covered a large range of SNF temperatures, room temperature to 300°C, and burnups, 10 GWd/MTU to 62 GWd/MTU. Each temperature and burnup combination has a different cladding yield strain, so it is more meaningful to summarize the calculated cladding strain response as its factor of safety, which is defined relative to the yield strain. The factor of safety is calculated as the yield strain divided by the peak cladding strain. A factor of safety greater than unity indicates that the cladding remains below yield, whereas a value less than unity is indicative of plastic deformation. In all cases of this study a safety factor over 1.0 was calculated, although in the most limiting case at 300°C the safety factor was only 1.01, which suggests that yielding could occur when additional loads like rod internal pressure are included. When the temperature is restricted to 200°C the limiting safety factor increases to 1.28, which has significant margin to accommodate internal pressure and potential local cladding defects that could cause a local stress concentration. An important trend in the calculated fuel rod mechanical loads is that the 2 nd highest loaded fuel rod in an assembly tends to be significantly lower than the highest loaded rod. The implication is that even if one rod in an assembly experiences a failure the loads would have to be significantly higher to cause two or more rods to fail.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗